Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core Viewpoints - The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index fluctuates in the short - term due to news. The big - finance sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation has reached a framework consensus, but there is no incremental information. The uncertainty of Treasury bond futures has weakened, and the overall situation is strong. Gold maintains a range - bound oscillation and may have pulse - type fluctuations. The increase in US inflation is less than expected, supporting the Fed to cut interest rates earlier, and the Middle East geopolitical tensions drive up the price of gold. The container shipping index is in a shock consolidation. The demand and inventory of industrial steel materials are deteriorating. The iron ore is in a range - bound oscillation. The coking coal and coke market expectations are improving. The prices of various energy - chemical and agricultural products show different trends [2] Summary by Variety Financial - **Stock Index**: The index has stable support below and pressure to break through above. The big - finance sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. It is recommended to sell the put options of the CSI 1000 Index with an exercise price around 5800 in July to collect the premium [2] - **Treasury Bond**: The uncertainty of Treasury bond futures has weakened, and the overall situation is strong. In the short - term, it is advisable to allocate long positions on dips. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract. If there is no sudden change in the trade negotiation this week, Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate strongly. Currently, 1.6% is the downward resistance level of the 10 - year bond interest rate [2] - **Precious Metal**: Gold maintains a range - bound oscillation and may have pulse - type fluctuations. Do the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options to earn time value. Consider going long on the main contract on dips. Be cautious about the flow of speculative funds in silver and the "killing decline" caused by long - position profit - taking [2] Black - **Steel**: The demand and inventory of industrial steel materials are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline range of apparent demand. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the arbitrage operation of going long on finished products and short on raw materials [2] - **Iron Ore**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change of terminal demand [2] - **Coking Coal**: The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, the coal mine start - up has declined from a high level, and the spot has signs of stabilizing. It is recommended to go long on JM2509 on dips [2] - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented. The futures price has a rebound expectation. It is recommended to go long on J2509 on dips [2] - **Silicon Iron**: It is in a bottom - range oscillation. Try to go short when it rebounds to 5300 - 5400 [2] - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure still exists. It is in a bottom - range oscillation. Try to go short when it rebounds to 5700 - 5800 [2] Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The domestic spot trading has weakened, and the US copper restocking continues. The main contract reference range is 77000 - 80000 [2] - **Zinc**: The mine - end resumption of production provides incremental supply, and the zinc price oscillates weakly [2] - **Nickel**: The afternoon sentiment improved, and the price rose slightly. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2] - **Stainless Steel**: After the price limit was partially restored, the price turned red, but the fundamental contradiction remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy after the sentiment stabilizes. The main contract reference range is 12400 - 13000 [2] - **Tin**: Due to the slow recovery of supply and the warming of macro - sentiment, the tin price continues to rise. It is recommended to adopt a short - term long - bias strategy [2] Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks are rising. The short - term oil price is likely to continue the strong - bias oscillation trend. Pay attention to the opportunity of monthly spread expansion [2] - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand has not improved. The downward pressure on the price remains. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for the rebound opportunity. The support level of the main contract is adjusted to 1620 - 1640. Consider the 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [2] - **PX**: The cost side is strong, and the supply - demand situation is good. It has support at 6400 - 6500 in the short - term. Do short - term long operations; mainly do short - term reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1; shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2] - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is gradually weakening, but the cost side is strong. It is in a stalemate oscillation. Operate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term; mainly do reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 when it is high [2] - **Short - fiber**: Under the expectation of factory production cuts, the short - term processing fee has slightly recovered, but the driving force is still limited. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; expand the processing fee on the PF disk when it is low [2] - **Bottle Chip**: In the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production cuts for bottle chips, and the processing fee is bottom - seeking. It follows the cost fluctuation. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA. The processing fee on the main PF disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand it at the lower edge of the range [2] - **Ethanol**: The short - term demand is weak, but the supply - demand structure of MEG is still good. It is expected to oscillate in the range. Oscillate in the range of 4200 - 4400 for EG09 in the short - term; pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage for EG9 - 1 on dips [2] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The short - term raw materials and benzene ethylene destocking support the price. Pay attention to the medium - term contradiction. Wait and see in the short - term, and consider high - short operations in the medium - term when there is a raw material resonance opportunity [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand expectation is not good, the spot price has回调, and the near - month support is insufficient. Exit the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage. Wait and see for unilateral operations [2] - **PVC**: The short - term contradiction has not further intensified, and the macro - disturbance has increased. The price is in a low - level consolidation. Wait and see in the short - term, and maintain a high - short strategy for medium - and long - term participation [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR follows the commodity price fluctuation. Hold the short position of BR2507 [2] - **LLDPE**: The spot price and basis change little, and the trading volume is moderate [2] - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and it oscillates weakly. Oscillate weakly and go short on rallies [2] - **Methanol**: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it oscillates [2] Agricultural - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: During the Sino - US trade negotiation, the price runs strongly [2] - **Pig**: The demand is weak due to the hot weather, but the rising feed price boosts the price. Pay attention to the performance around 13500 [2] - **Corn**: The upward momentum weakens, and it oscillates at a high level. Oscillate around 2380 in the short - term [2] - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the concern about production, it falls inertia - ally. It may test the support at 7800 in the short - term [2] - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. Do short - selling on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak. Do short - selling on rebounds [2] - **Egg**: There is a risk that the spot price may weaken again. Do short - selling on the rebound of the 07 contract and hold the short position [2] - **Apple**: The price in the sales area is stable, and the transaction is priced according to quality. The main contract runs around 7500 [2] - **Jujube**: The market price runs weakly and stably. It runs around 8900 in the short - term [2] - **Peanut**: The market price oscillates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2] - **Soda Ash**: The over - supply logic continues. Maintain the high - short strategy on rebounds. Hold the high - level short position and do the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: Affected by the cold - repair news, the price fluctuates repeatedly. Wait and see in the short - term [2] - **Rubber**: The driving force is limited, and the rubber price oscillates. Adopt a high - short strategy when it rebounds above 14000 [2] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon futures price rises, and the futures - spot price gradually converges. The polysilicon futures price stabilizes and rebounds. Hold the short position cautiously or close the position first [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the news, the price rises, but the fundamental logic remains unchanged. Observe the performance around 62,000 first [2]

然橡胶产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13750 | 13850 | -100 | -0.72% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -140 | વર્ત | -185 | -411.11% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13850 | 13750 | 100 | 0.73% | | | 非标价差 | -40 | -રેર | 15 | 27.27% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 46.65 | 46.20 | 0.45 | 0.97% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水： 国际市场: FOB中间价 | 56.50 | 56.25 | 0.25 | 0.44% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12200 | 12200 | 0 | 0.00% | ...

Z0019556 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 期货和现货价格 | NIXTHANNIA | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 6月10日 | 6669 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 765.0 | 771.0 | -6.0 | -0.78% | | | 原木2509 | 784.5 | 785.5 | -1.0 | -0.13% | | | 原木2511 | 790.0 | 790.5 | -0.5 | -0.06% | | | 7-9价差 | -19.5 | -14.5 | -5.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -5.5 | -5.0 | -0.5 | | | | 7-11价差 | -25.0 | -19.5 | -5.5 | | | | 07合约基差 | -15.0 | -21.0 | 6.0 | | | | 09合约基差 | -34.5 | -35.5 | 1.0 | | | | 11合约基差 | -40.0 | -40.5 | 0.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 日 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年6月12日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -15.83 | 8.64 | 29.90% | 26.60% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -9.74 | 6.66 | 26.60% | 23.10% | | | IC期现价差 | -31.75 | 8.05 | 38.10% | 39.20% | | | IM期现价差 | -42.51 | 5.38 | 90.00% | 29.00% | | | 次月-当月 | -39.40 | -2.60 | 2.80% | 7.40% | | | 季月-当月 | -66.60 | 0.60 | 13.10% | 16.30% | | | 远月-当月 | -93.00 | 2.80 | 16.80% | 20.50% | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints There are no explicit core viewpoints presented in the given text. It mainly provides a comprehensive list of various commodity futures and related data, including spot prices, historical quantiles, basis, and futures prices. 3. Summary by Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: Spot price is 5478, futures price is 5184, basis is 294, basis rate is 5.67%, and historical quantile is 89.20% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: Spot price is 5700, futures price is 5486, basis rate is 3.90%, and historical quantile is 59.40% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2510)**: Spot price is 3110, futures price is 2991, basis rate is 3.98%, and historical quantile is 54.60% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: Spot price is 3200, futures price is 3108, basis rate is 2.96%, and historical quantile is 54.30% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: Spot price (converted price of 62.5% Brazilian blended powder) is 759, futures price is 707, basis rate is 7.33%, and historical quantile is 42.60% [1]. - **Coke (J2509)**: Spot price is 1357, futures price is 1356, basis rate is 0.08%, and historical quantile is 45.89% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Spot price (converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal) is 828, futures price is 784, basis rate is 5.68%, and historical quantile is 30.20% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2507)**: Spot price is 79310, futures price is 79290, basis rate is 0.03%, and historical quantile is 44.16% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2507)**: Spot price is 20400, futures price is 20250, basis rate is 0.74%, and historical quantile is 83.33% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2507)**: Spot price is 22230, futures price is 22140, basis rate is 0.41%, and historical quantile is 56.45% [1]. - **Tin (SN2507)**: Spot price is 265800, futures price is 265530, basis rate is 0.10%, and historical quantile is 55.20% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2507)**: Spot price is 121700, futures price is 121790, basis rate is - 0.07%, and historical quantile is 49.58% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2508)**: Spot price is 12970, futures price is 12600, basis rate is 2.94%, and historical quantile is 77.25% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2508)**: Spot price is 777.5, futures price is 774.5, basis rate is - 0.39%, and historical quantile is 19.50% [1]. - **Silver (AG2508)**: Spot price is 8882.0, futures price is 8902.0, basis rate is - 0.22%, and historical quantile is 37.40% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: Spot price is 3047.0, futures price is 2840, basis rate is - 6.79%, and historical quantile is 24.10% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2509)**: Spot price is 7880, futures price is 7694.0, basis rate is 2.42% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: Spot price is 8330, futures price is 7970.0, basis rate is 4.52%, and historical quantile is 64.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: Spot price is 2638.0, futures price is 2530, basis rate is - 4.09%, and historical quantile is 15.70% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (O1509)**: Spot price is 9330, futures price is 9149.0, basis rate is 1.98%, and historical quantile is 58.20% [1]. - **Corn (C2507)**: Spot price is 2390, futures price is 2374.0, basis rate is 0.67%, and historical quantile is 56.70% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2507)**: Spot price is 2709.0, futures price is 2700, basis rate is - 0.33%, and historical quantile is 9.70% [1]. - **Live Hogs (LH2509)**: Spot price is 14050, futures price is 13600.0, basis rate is 3.31%, and historical quantile is 52.00% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2508)**: Spot price is 3515.0, futures price is 2620, basis rate is - 25.46% [1]. - **Cotton (CF509)**: Spot price is 14702, futures price is 13540.0, basis rate is 8.58%, and historical quantile is 81.70% [1]. - **Sugar (SR509)**: Spot price is 6150, futures price is 5668.0, basis rate is 8.50%, and historical quantile is 85.70% [1]. - **Apples (AP510)**: Spot price is 8600, futures price is 7551.0, basis rate is 13.89%, and historical quantile is 16.20% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ509)**: Spot price is 8925.0, futures price is 8300, basis rate is - 7.00%, and historical quantile is 31.10% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX509)**: Spot price is 6725.0, futures price is 6528.0, basis rate is 3.02%, and historical quantile is 82.90% [1]. - **PTA (TA509)**: Spot price is 4840.0, futures price is 4620.0, basis rate is 4.76%, and historical quantile is 82.90% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: Spot price is 4370.0, futures price is 4285.0, basis rate is 1.98%, and historical quantile is 88.20% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF507)**: Spot price is 6490.0, futures price is 6414.0, basis rate is 1.18%, and historical quantile is 66.40% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2507)**: Spot price is 7760.0, futures price is 7349.0, basis rate is 5.59%, and historical quantile is 85.20% [1]. - **Methanol (MA509)**: Spot price is 2368.0, futures price is 2282.0, basis rate is 3.77%, and historical quantile is 71.90% [1]. - **Urea (UR509)**: Spot price is 1750.0, futures price is 1667.0, basis rate is 4.98%, and historical quantile is 37.50% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2509)**: Spot price is 7165.0, futures price is 7102.0, basis rate is 0.89%, and historical quantile is 36.20% [1]. - **PP (PP2509)**: Spot price is 7130.0, futures price is 6960.0, basis rate is 2.44%, and historical quantile is 64.40% [1]. - **PVC (V2509)**: Spot price is 4832.0, futures price is 4720.0, basis rate is - 2.32%, and historical quantile is 48.90% [1]. - **LPG (PG2507)**: Spot price is 4598.0, futures price is 4130.0, basis rate is 11.33%, and historical quantile is 64.30% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2509)**: Spot price is 3720.0, futures price is 3461.0, basis rate is 7.48%, and historical quantile is 87.10% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2507)**: Spot price is 11600.0, futures price is 11225.0, basis rate is 3.34%, and historical quantile is 68.30% [1]. - **Glass (FG509)**: Spot price is 1032.0, futures price is 998.0, basis rate is 3.29%, and historical quantile is 75.42% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: Spot price is 1246.0, futures price is 1202.0, basis rate is 3.53%, and historical quantile is 86.66% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: Spot price is 13890.0, futures price is 13750.0, basis rate is - 1.02% [1]. Financial Futures - **CSI 300 Index Futures (IF2506)**: Spot price is 3894.6, futures price is 3878.8, basis rate is - 0.41%, and historical quantile is 26.60% [1]. - **SSE 50 Index Futures (IH2506)**: Spot price is 2692.1, futures price is 2682.4, basis rate is - 0.36% [1]. - **CSI 500 Index Futures (IC2506)**: Spot price is 5792.9, futures price is 5761.2, basis rate is - 0.55%, and historical quantile is 39.20% [1]. - **CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM2506)**: Spot price is 6186.5, futures price is 6144.0, basis rate is - 0.69%, and historical quantile is 29.00% [1]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TS2509)**: Spot price is 102.45, futures price is 100.30, basis rate is - 0.06%, and historical quantile is 11.20% [1]. - **5 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TF2509)**: Spot price is 106.17, futures price is 101.07, basis rate is - 0.02%, and historical quantile is 24.20% [1]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (T2509)**: Spot price is 109.04, futures price is 107.64, basis rate is 0.16%, and historical quantile is 36.70% [1]. - **30 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TL2509)**: Spot price is 136.22, futures price is 120.40, basis rate is 0.35%, and historical quantile is 61.30% [1].

| 镇产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解销 | 122700 | 122800 | -100 | -0.08% | 元/肥 | | 1#송川镇 | 123850 | 123900 | -50 | -0.04% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2450 | 2400 | 50 | 2.08% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | 121700 | 121600 | 100 | 0.08% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | 300 | 100 | 200 | - | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -194 | -189 | -5 | 2.79% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -3397 | -3024 | -373 | 12.33% | 元/吨 | | ...

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - Recent steel prices rebounded, basis weakened, and spot entered a weak off - season. Demand is expected to remain weak due to the off - season and tariff suppression. Iron ore shipments are surging this month, and the iron ore inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation, which is unfavorable for the rebound of black metals. It is recommended to focus on opportunities to lay out short positions on rebounds, referring to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average of the October contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices remained stable or had small increases. For example, the spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 11 yuan to 3098 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The price of steel billets increased by 20 yuan to 2920 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 18 yuan to 147 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 7.0 tons to 218.5 tons, while the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 9.2 tons to 328.8 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.8 tons to 1363.8 tons. The rebar inventory decreased by 10.6 tons to 570.5 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.8 tons to 340.6 tons [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 10.5, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 tons to 882.2 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.7 tons to 229.0 tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 6.0 tons to 320.9 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the upside of iron ore due to the decline of pig iron output from a high level, increased supply, and administrative reduction. In the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. Considering the risk of weakening demand in the off - season, the price range of iron ore may move down, with a reference range of 720 - 670 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract of most iron ore types decreased significantly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder increased by 5.5 to 765.6 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 58.0 to 58.6 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipments increased by 79.4 tons to 3510.4 tons, and the weekly arrivals at 45 ports increased by 72.8 tons to 2609.3 tons. The monthly national import volume increased by 917.5 tons to 10313.8 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons, and the weekly average daily ore - dispatching volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.7 tons to 314.0 tons. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 271.1 tons to 7258.3 tons, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 682.2 tons to 8601.9 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 20.3 tons to 13846.94 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 tons to 8690.2 tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days [3]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coke futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak and stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The spot may have one more round of price cuts but is approaching the phased bottom. The supply is affected by environmental protection, and the demand is showing a trend of reaching the peak and then declining. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coke on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi increased by 9 to 1154, and the 09 contract of coke increased by 7 to 1356. The 09 basis decreased by 7 to - 39 [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 987.0 tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 tons to 127.0 tons, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 tons to 645.8 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 3.0 tons to 214.2 tons [5]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coking coal futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The decline of the spot price of coking coal has narrowed, and some coal mines have seen improved transactions. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coking coal on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 970, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 10 to 828. The 09 contract of coking coal decreased by 2 to 784, and the 01 contract increased by 2 to 793 [5]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 12.8 tons to 873.0 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 8.8 tons to 445.0 tons. The import of Mongolian coal has a slow - down in price decline, and the import profit of seaborne coal is still negative [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons. The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased slightly by 0.1 to 271.5 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.4 tons to 818.9 tons, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 15.9 tons to 770.9 tons, and the port inventory increased by 9.9 tons to 313.0 tons [5]. Group 5: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated. The supply increased, and the demand is affected by both steel and non - steel sectors. The cost is short - term stable, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply pressure remains, and the manganese ore supply and price have certain fluctuations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 10 to 5184, and the spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 to 5100 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 4.1 to 5603.8 yuan/ton, and the production profit increased by 4.1 to - 173.8 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferrosilicon output increased by 1.2 tons to 9.7 tons, and the operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises increased by 2.3 to 32.8% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferrosilicon demand decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 tons, and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.7 tons to 68 tons [6]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 56 to 5486, and the spot price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5430 yuan/ton [6]. - **Manganese Ore Supply**: The global manganese ore shipments decreased by 9.5 tons to 61.7 tons, and the arrivals at domestic ports increased by 29.5 tons to 67.8 tons [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferromanganese output increased by 0.2 tons to 17.2 tons, and the operating rate increased by 0.3 to 35.0% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.1 tons to 12.6 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The manganese ore port inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 407.0 tons [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Although the short - term supply has increased and the demand has weakened, there is a de - stocking expectation in June. The price is expected to have limited downside, with support at 6400 - 6500. Short - term long positions can be considered, and short - term reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 is recommended [2]. - PTA: The load has increased significantly, and there is a new device put into production. The supply - demand relationship is weak, but there is support at the low level. It is recommended to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range and conduct reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 [2]. - MEG: The supply - demand structure in June is good, with de - stocking expectations. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4200 - 4400, and positive arbitrage for EG9 - 1 can be considered [2]. - Short - fiber: The processing fee has been repaired, but the terminal demand is weak. The price fluctuates with raw materials. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for single - side trading and expand the processing fee at a low level [2]. - Polyester bottle - chip: There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in June, and the processing fee will be supported. The absolute price follows the cost. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [2]. Methanol Industry The supply is generally loose, and the demand side has mixed performance. The price is recommended to be operated in the range of 2200 - 2350 [6]. Polyolefin Industry PE is expected to de - stock in June, with limited supply pressure and driving forces. PP has a large new - capacity release in June - July, with high inventory pressure. It is recommended to short PP at high prices [9][10]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The supply has increased, but the demand from the alumina end is weakening, and there is inventory pressure. It is recommended to exit the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage and observe for single - side trading [19]. - PVC: In the short - term, it shows a volatile trend, and in the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [19]. Crude Oil Industry The overnight crude oil price continued to rise, driven by macro - geopolitical and fundamental factors. It is recommended to take a short - term long - position view, with resistance levels for WTI at [70, 71], Brent at [73, 75], and SC at [510, 520]. Pay attention to the opportunity of month - spread expansion and the option of buying a straddle structure [23]. Urea Industry The supply is high, but the demand is weak. The trading logic focuses on the agricultural demand time point and export dynamics. The market is still in the bottom - seeking stage [31]. Styrene Industry The short - term price fluctuates sharply. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the short - position opportunity caused by the resonance of raw materials in the medium - term [43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Price and Cash - flow**: On June 11, Brent crude oil (August) was at $69.77/barrel, up 4.3% from the previous day; WTI crude oil (July) was at $68.15/barrel, up 4.9%. The prices of some polyester products remained stable, and the cash - flow of some products changed [2]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: PX supply has increased, and the demand from downstream polyester has weakened. PTA load has increased, and there is a new device put into production. MEG supply is expected to be stable, and the demand is weak in the short - term [2]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For PX, short - term long positions and short - term reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1; for PTA, operate in the 4500 - 4800 range and conduct reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1; for MEG, operate in the 4200 - 4400 range and conduct positive arbitrage for EG9 - 1; for short - fiber, take the same strategy as PTA for single - side trading and expand the processing fee at a low level; for polyester bottle - chip, take the same strategy as PTA [2]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: On June 11, MA2601 closed at 2345 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; MA2509 closed at 2282 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The inventory of methanol enterprises and ports increased [6]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: The supply in the inland area is high, and the import expectation is still high. The demand side has mixed performance, with MTO mostly increasing the load and the downstream profit deteriorating [6]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Operate the price in the range of 2200 - 2350 [6]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: On June 11, L2601 closed at 7075 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day; PP2601 closed at 6908 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The inventory of PE and PP changed [9]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: PE has a slight increase in domestic supply and a decrease in imports, and it is in the off - season of demand. PP has a large new - capacity release in June - July, and it is also in the off - season of demand [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Short PP at high prices [10]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: On June 11, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda was 2718.8 yuan/ton, down 1.1% from the previous day; the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC was 4720 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The export profit of caustic soda increased, and the export profit of PVC decreased [14][15][16]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: The supply of caustic soda has increased, but the demand from the alumina end is weakening. The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [19]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Exit the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage for caustic soda and observe for single - side trading; maintain a short - selling strategy for PVC [19]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: On June 12, Brent was at $69.77/barrel, up 4.34% from the previous day; WTI was at $68.63/barrel, up 0.70%. The price of refined oil products changed slightly [23]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: The macro - geopolitical situation is tense, and the supply of Iran and Russia may be restricted. The North American drilling scale and EIA inventory have declined, and the demand is expected to be supported by the approaching peak oil - using season [23]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Take a short - term long - position view, with resistance levels for WTI at [70, 71], Brent at [73, 75], and SC at [510, 520]. Pay attention to the opportunity of month - spread expansion and the option of buying a straddle structure [23]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The price of urea in different regions changed slightly. The inventory of urea enterprises increased [30][31]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: The supply of urea is high, but the demand is weak. The agricultural demand has slightly improved, but the trading activity is not high, and the industrial demand is weakened by the decline of the compound - fertilizer start - up rate [31]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: The market is still in the bottom - seeking stage, and the trading logic focuses on the agricultural demand time point and export dynamics [31]. Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: On June 11, the price of styrene in East China was 7760 yuan/ton, up 0.9% from the previous day. The import profit of styrene increased [41][42]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: The price of pure benzene is affected by factors such as the decline of naphtha and the postponement of plant maintenance. The downstream 3S profit has improved, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. However, attention should be paid to the marginal pressure on supply - demand after the restart of styrene devices [43]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the short - position opportunity caused by the resonance of raw materials in the medium - term [43].

油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 干泽辉 Z0019938 | 原 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8080 | 8140 | -60 | -0.74% | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7390 | 7434 | -44 | -0.59% | | 泉差 | Y2509 | ୧୦୦ | 706 | -16 | -2.27% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+270 | 0 | | | 仓单 | | 17652 | 17652 | 0 | 0.00% | 棕榈油 | | | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8450 | 8600 | -150 | -1.74% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7898 | 7998 | -100 | -1 ...

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020-88818051 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2506 | 总持仓明显上升 | 国君多头、中信空头增仓超2000手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2506 | 基本持平 | 前二十席位持仓分化 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2506 | 基本持平 | 前二十席位变动较小 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2506 | 总持仓明显下降 | 国君多空头减仓超 4000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 3,257.0 -1,541.0 -4,050.0 -14,123.0 12,268.0 -462.0 -28.0 -13,541.0 -20,000 -15,000 -10,00 ...