Report Industry Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention industry investment ratings. Core Views Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel futures market weakened, with the main contract breaking below the 120,000 support level. Macro - wise, the news was relatively calm, and the policy remained uncertain. The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. On the industrial side, spot prices fell, and trading was mediocre. In the medium - term, supply was expected to be loose, and the market was likely to fluctuate within the range of 118,000 - 126,000 [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed narrow - range fluctuations. The market sentiment improved slightly, but high - price resources had weak trading. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand was slowly recovering. The market was expected to fluctuate weakly within the range of 12,400 - 13,000 [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market declined significantly. The fundamentals were under pressure, and the market sentiment was weak. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was difficult to boost. The market was expected to run weakly within the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [5]. Tin - Tin was in a "strong reality, weak expectation" situation. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was expected to be weak. After the sentiment stabilized, a short - selling strategy was recommended [6]. Aluminum Oxide - The supply of aluminum oxide was expected to increase, and the market was likely to turn relatively loose. The spot price was expected to fluctuate weakly, with the lower reference cash cost at 2,700 [7]. Aluminum - The low inventory and low warehouse receipts supported the short - term aluminum price, and it was difficult for the price to decline unilaterally. However, due to factors such as increased tariffs and weakening demand, the domestic aluminum price still faced pressure, with the lower support at 19,000 [7]. Zinc - The zinc market had a long - term supply - side easing cycle. The supply side was expected to be loose, and the demand side might weaken after the peak season. The price was expected to be in the range of 21,000 - 23,000 [9]. Copper - Copper was in a "strong reality + weak expectation" situation. The strong fundamentals restricted price drops, while the weak macro - expectations limited the upside. The price was expected to fluctuate within the range of 78,000 - 80,000 [12]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 121,900 yuan/ton, down 0.65%; 1 Jinchuan nickel was at 122,925 yuan/ton, down 0.75%. The LME 0 - 3 was at - 196 dollars/ton, down 0.97%. The futures import loss was - 2,759 yuan/ton, a reduction of 18.78% [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures price difference was 385 yuan/ton, up 4.05% [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 60,650 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate was at 59,050 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [5]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin was at 265,300 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; SMM 1 tin premium was at 1,100 yuan/ton, down 8.33% [6]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 20,650 yuan/ton, up 1.23%; Yangtze River A00 aluminum was at 20,680 yuan/ton, up 1.27% [7]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 0.04%; SMM 0 zinc ingot (Guangdong) was at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [9]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 79,075 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper was at 79,010 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [12]. Production Cost - **Nickel**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel was 126,132 yuan/ton, down 0.49%; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrolytic nickel was 133,478 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [1]. New Energy Material Prices - Battery - grade nickel sulfate was at 27,815 yuan/ton, unchanged; battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 60,200 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%/domestic) was at 48,375 yuan/ton, down 0.57% [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - **Nickel**: 2507 - 2508 was at - 220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; 2508 - 2509 was at - 120 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: 2507 - 2508 was at - 40 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; 2508 - 2509 was at 20 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: 2507 - 2508 was at - 100 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2509 was at - 60 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: 2506 - 2507 was at 50 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2508 was at 230 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: 2506 - 2507 was at 130 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2508 was at 5 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton [7]. - **Zinc**: 2506 - 2507 was at 290 yuan/ton, unchanged; 2507 - 2508 was at 255 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [9]. - **Copper**: 2506 - 2507 was at 290 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2508 was at 160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [12]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62%; refined nickel imports were 8,832 tons, up 8.18%. SHFE inventory was 27,075 tons, up 0.45%; social inventory was 41,553 tons, down 1.97%; LME inventory was 197,634 tons, up 0.06% [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36%; stainless - steel imports were 14.21 million tons, up 10.26%; exports were 44.78 million tons, down 4.85%. 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 53.08 million tons, up 2.04% [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34%; demand was 93,938 tons, up 4.81%. In April, imports were 28,336 tons, up 56.33%; exports were 734 tons, up 233.72%. Total inventory in May was 97,637 tons, up 1.49% [5]. - **Tin**: In April, tin ore imports were 9,861 tons, up 18.48%; SMM refined tin production in May was 14,840 tons, down 2.37%. In April, refined tin imports were 1,128 tons, down 46.31%; exports were 1,637 tons, down 2.15%. SHEF inventory was 7,372 tons, down 9.07%; social inventory was 8,856 tons, down 2.38% [6]. - **Aluminum**: In May, aluminum oxide production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66%; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41%. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 46.00 million tons, down 8.73%; LME inventory was 35.8 million tons, down 0.64% [7]. - **Zinc**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08%; in April, imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40%; exports were 0.25 million tons, up 75.76%. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 7.71 million tons, down 2.77%; LME inventory was 13.3 million tons, down 1.47% [9]. - **Copper**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12%; in April, imports were 25.00 million tons, down 19.06%. Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 74.73 million tons, down 6.11%; electrolytic copper rod - making capacity utilization was 73.21%, down 1.66%. Domestic social inventory was 14.48 million tons, down 2.69%; bonded - area inventory was 5.97 million tons, up 2.93%; SHFE inventory was 10.74 million tons, up 1.52%; LME inventory was 11.69 million tons, down 2.18%; COMEX inventory was 19.21 million short tons, up 0.60% [12].

1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Current building materials are reducing production and inventory, while plates are reducing production and increasing inventory. The demand for plates is showing a clear downward trend, and the difference lies in the decline range of demand. - With the suspension of domestic subsidies and the reduction of internal competition in the auto industry, the later - stage demand expectation remains weak. - This month, iron ore shipments are surging, and iron ore inventory is approaching the inflection point of inventory accumulation, which is unfavorable for the rebound of ferrous metals. - Considering the weakening expectation of actual demand, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds, and hold short positions for now [1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, there is obvious pressure on the upside of iron ore prices, mainly due to the high - level decline of hot metal, supply increase, and administrative reduction expectations, but the short - term decline of hot metal is limited. - In the medium - to - long term, the bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. With the risk of weakening demand in the off - season, the iron ore price range may move down, with the reference range of 720 - 670 [4]. Coke - The spot fundamentals of coke are still relatively loose, and the expectation of a bottom - up rebound is difficult to be verified in the short term. The spot price has no rebound drive, and the futures price has fallen again. - There is an expectation of 1 - 2 more rounds of price cuts in the future. It is recommended to adopt a short - term high - selling strategy for the 2509 contract, and pay attention to risks due to increased volatility later [6]. Coking Coal - The expectation of a bottom - up rebound may be disproven, and the spot fundamentals lack a rebound drive. After the basis is repaired, the futures market will face hedging pressure again. - It is recommended to adopt a short - term high - selling strategy for the 2509 contract, and pay attention to risks due to increased volatility later [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has begun to increase recently. The cost side should pay attention to the change of coal prices, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. Ferromanganese - The supply pressure of ferromanganese still exists. The cost side should pay attention to the change of coke prices, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Most steel prices, including those of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, have decreased. For example, the rebar spot price in East China decreased from 3110 to 3090 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 2890 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The profits of most steel products have increased, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 13 to 160 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal output remained unchanged at 241.8. The output of five major steel products decreased by 21.5 to 858.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.4%. The rebar output decreased by 10.9 to 207.6 million tons, a decrease of 5.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 9.2 to 1354.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The rebar inventory decreased by 12.4 to 558.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%, while the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.8 to 345.4 million tons, an increase of 1.4% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 1.5 to 8.9, a decrease of 14.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.1 to 868.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc., have decreased. The basis of the 09 contract for different varieties has also decreased significantly, for example, the 09 contract basis of PB fines decreased from 112.6 to 59.4 [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 72.8 to 2609.3 million tons, an increase of 2.9%. The global shipment volume increased by 79.4 to 3510.4 million tons, an increase of 2.3%. The national monthly import volume increased by 917.5 to 10313.8 million tons, an increase of 9.8% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8. The 45 - port daily average desilting volume decreased by 12.7 to 314.0 million tons, a decrease of 3.9%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 271.1 to 7258.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.6%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 682.2 to 8601.9 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 20.3 to 13846.94 million tons, an increase of 0.1%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke remained unchanged. The 09 and 01 contracts of coke decreased by 28 and 26 respectively, with a decline of 2.0% and 1.9% respectively [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5 to 65.0 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.14% [6]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 million tons [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 15.3 to 971.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.6%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased to varying degrees [6]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal warehouse - receipts remained unchanged. The 09 and 01 contracts of coking coal decreased by 17 and 14 respectively, with a decline of 2.2% and 1.8% respectively [6]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 6.7 to 866.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The cleaned coal output decreased by 4.3 to 440.7 million tons, a decrease of 1.0% [6]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5 to 65.0 million tons, a decrease of 2.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1% [6]. Inventory - The cleaned coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 12.5 to 284.0 million tons, an increase of 4.64%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 20.8 to 798.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.1 to 774.0 million tons, an increase of 0.4% [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions and contracts have decreased. For example, the 72% FeSi ferrosilicon spot price in Inner Mongolia decreased from 5100 to 5050 yuan/ton [7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions have changed slightly. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased from - 53.0 to - 426.5 [7]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased by 1.4 to 32.8, a decrease of 4.4%. The ferromanganese weekly output increased by 0.2 to 17.3 million tons, an increase of 0.9% [7]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 million tons, a decrease of 3.5%. The ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.4 to 12.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.9% [7]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.2 to 7.0 million tons, an increase of 3.3%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese increased by 0.9 to 19 million tons, an increase of 5.0% [7].

1. Report Date - The report is dated June 13, 2025 [4] 2. Data Sources - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Research Institute of GF Futures [5] 3. Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: The basis is 262, the basis rate is 5.07%, and the historical quantile is 87.10%. The spot price is 5428, and the futures price is 5166 [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: The basis is 244, the basis rate is 4.50%, and the historical quantile is 62.80%. The spot price is 5670, and the futures price is 5426 [1] - **Rebar (RB2510)**: The basis is 122, the basis rate is 4.11%, and the historical quantile is 55.70%. The spot price is 3090, and the futures price is 2968 [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: The basis is 100, the basis rate is 3.25%, and the historical quantile is 56.30%. The spot price is 3180, and the futures price is 3080 [1] - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: The basis is 29, the basis rate is 7.79%, and the historical quantile is 45.10%. The spot price is 759, and the futures price is 704 [1] - **Coke (J2509)**: The basis is 28, the basis rate is 2.16%, and the historical quantile is 60.09%. The spot price is 1357, and the futures price is 1329 [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: The basis is 61, the basis rate is 8.02%, and the historical quantile is 38.00%. The spot price is 828, and the futures price is 767 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2507)**: The basis is 465, the basis rate is 0.59%, and the historical quantile is 81.45%. The spot price is 78610, and the futures price is 79075 [1] - **Aluminum (AL2507)**: The basis is 255, the basis rate is 1.25%, and the historical quantile is 92.29%. The spot price is 20395, and the futures price is 20650 [1] - **Alumina (AO2509)**: The basis is 365, the basis rate is 12.61%, and the historical quantile is 89.42%. The spot price is 3260, and the futures price is 2895 [1] - **Zinc (ZN2507)**: The basis is 155, the basis rate is 0.70%, and the historical quantile is 69.37%. The spot price is 22240, and the futures price is 22085 [1] - **Tin (SN2507)**: The basis is 150, the basis rate is 0.06%, and the historical quantile is 51.45%. The spot price is 265300, and the futures price is 265150 [1] - **Nickel (NI2507)**: The basis is 1000, the basis rate is 0.83%, and the historical quantile is 82.29%. The spot price is 121000, and the futures price is 120000 [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2508)**: The basis is 385, the basis rate is 3.06%, and the historical quantile is 78.75%. The spot price is 12970, and the futures price is 12585 [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2507)**: The basis is 210, the basis rate is 0.35%, and the historical quantile is 49.55%. The spot price is 60650, and the futures price is 60440 [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2507)**: The basis is - 695, the basis rate is - 9.32%, and the historical quantile is 48.48%. The spot price is 7455, and the futures price is 8150 [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2508)**: The basis is - 4.8, the basis rate is - 0.61%, and the historical quantile is 5.00%. The spot price is 785.2, and the futures price is 780.4 [1] - **Silver (AG2508)**: The basis is - 49, the basis rate is - 0.56%, and the historical quantile is 6.10%. The spot price is 8819, and the futures price is 8770 [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: The basis is - 219, the basis rate is - 7.18%, and the historical quantile is 0.10%. The spot price is 2830, and the futures price is 3049 [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2509)**: The basis is 182, the basis rate is 2.37%, and the historical quantile is 23.70%. The spot price is 7870, and the futures price is 7688 [1] - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: The basis is 330, the basis rate is 4.12%, and the historical quantile is 64.10%. The spot price is 8340, and the futures price is 8010 [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: The basis is - 134, the basis rate is - 5.01%, and the historical quantile is 10.30%. The spot price is 2540, and the futures price is 2674 [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (O1509)**: The basis is 172, the basis rate is 1.87%, and the historical quantile is 56.40%. The spot price is 9350, and the futures price is 9178 [1] - **Corn (C2507)**: The basis is 18, the basis rate is 0.76%, and the historical quantile is 57.20%. The spot price is 2390, and the futures price is 2372 [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2507)**: The basis is - 10, the basis rate is - 0.37%, and the historical quantile is 9.60%. The spot price is 2710, and the futures price is 2700 [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2509)**: The basis is 300, the basis rate is 2.18%, and the historical quantile is 49.10%. The spot price is 14050, and the futures price is 13750 [1] - **Eggs (JD2508)**: The basis is - 959, the basis rate is - 27.49%, and the historical quantile is 0.10%. The spot price is 2530, and the futures price is 3489 [1] - **Cotton (CF509)**: The basis is 1272, the basis rate is 9.41%, and the historical quantile is 88.30%. The spot price is 14792, and the futures price is 13520 [1] - **Sugar (SR509)**: The basis is 483, the basis rate is 8.55%, and the historical quantile is 85.70%. The spot price is 6130, and the futures price is 5647 [1] - **Apples (AP510)**: The basis is 1024, the basis rate is 13.52%, and the historical quantile is 72.50%. The spot price is 8600, and the futures price is 7576 [1] - **Red Dates (CJ509)**: The basis is - 615, the basis rate is - 6.90%, and the historical quantile is 68.90%. The spot price is 8915, and the futures price is 8300 [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX509)**: The basis is 172.7, the basis rate is 2.64%, and the historical quantile is 77.80%. The spot price is 6708.7, and the futures price is 6536 [1] - **PTA (TA509)**: The basis is 230, the basis rate is 4.98%, and the historical quantile is 83.40%. The spot price is 4850, and the futures price is 4620 [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: The basis is 136, the basis rate is 3.21%, and the historical quantile is 92.80%. The spot price is 4370, and the futures price is 4234 [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF507)**: The basis is 148, the basis rate is 2.33%, and the historical quantile is 78.30%. The spot price is 6510, and the futures price is 6362 [1] - **Styrene (EB2507)**: The basis is 407, the basis rate is 5.54%, and the historical quantile is 84.80%. The spot price is 7760, and the futures price is 7353 [1] - **Methanol (MA509)**: The basis is 92, the basis rate is 4.02%, and the historical quantile is 74.20%. The spot price is 2382, and the futures price is 2290 [1] - **Urea (UR509)**: The basis is 94, the basis rate is 5.71%, and the historical quantile is 40.60%. The spot price is 1740, and the futures price is 1646 [1] - **LLDPE (L2509)**: The basis is 58, the basis rate is 0.81%, and the historical quantile is 34.20%. The spot price is 7175, and the futures price is 7117 [1] - **PP (PP2509)**: The basis is 161, the basis rate is 2.31%, and the historical quantile is 62.20%. The spot price is 7130, and the futures price is 6969 [1] - **PVC (V2509)**: The basis is - 106, the basis rate is - 2.20%, and the historical quantile is 51.60%. The spot price is 4826, and the futures price is 4720 [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH209)**: The basis is 417.8, the basis rate is 18.16%, and the historical quantile is 87.50%. The spot price is 2718.8, and the futures price is 2301 [1] - **LPG (PG2507)**: The basis is 457, the basis rate is 11.04%, and the historical quantile is 63.60%. The spot price is 4598, and the futures price is 4141 [1] - **Asphalt (BU2509)**: The basis is 193, the basis rate is 5.47%, and the historical quantile is 82.90%. The spot price is 3720, and the futures price is 3527 [1] - **BR (BR2507)**: The basis is 565, the basis rate is 5.12%, and the historical quantile is 82.40%. The spot price is 11600, and the futures price is 11035 [1] - **Glass (FG509)**: The basis is 981, the basis rate is 4.94%, and the historical quantile is 80.67%. The spot price is 1032, and the futures price is 981 [1] - **Soda Ash (SA509)**: The basis is 45, the basis rate is 3.69%, and the historical quantile is 44.74%. The spot price is 1220, and the futures price is 1175 [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2509)**: The basis is 265, the basis rate is 1.91%, and the historical quantile is 99.58%. The spot price is 13850, and the futures price is 13585 [1] Financial Futures - **CSI 300 Index Futures (IF2506)**: The basis is - 8.6, the basis rate is - 0.22%, and the historical quantile is 38.10%. The spot price is 3892.2, and the futures price is 3883.6 [1] - **SSE 50 Index Futures (IH2506)**: The basis is - 9.1, the basis rate is - 0.34%, and the historical quantile is 24.60%. The spot price is 2691.3, and the futures price is 2682.2 [1] - **CSI 500 Index Futures (IC2506)**: The basis is - 19.9, the basis rate is - 0.34%, and the historical quantile is 53.90%. The spot price is 5799.9, and the futures price is 5780 [1] - **CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM2506)**: The basis is - 35.4, the basis rate is - 0.58%, and the historical quantile is 36.80%. The spot price is 6192.2, and the futures price is 6156.8 [1] - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TS2509)**: The basis is - 0.06, the basis rate is - 0.06%, and the historical quantile is 12.30%. The spot price is 102.44, and the futures price is 100.29 [1] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TF2509)**: The basis is - 0.01, the basis rate is - 0.01%, and the historical quantile is 25.50%. The spot price is 101.05, and the futures price is 106.14 [1] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (T2509)**: The basis is 0.21, the basis rate is 0.19%, and the historical quantile is 42.00%. The spot price is 109, and the futures price is 107.64 [1] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TL2509)**: The basis is 0.4, the basis rate is 0.33%, and the historical quantile is 57.10%. The spot price is 136.28, and the futures price is 120.47 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to remain weak. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds above 14,000. Pay attention to the raw material supply in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [2]. Industrial Silicon - Although the demand for industrial silicon is expected to improve in June, the supply increase is larger, and the inventory is expected to accumulate, putting pressure on the price. However, due to the low absolute price and the enhancement of disk procurement, there may be price rebounds, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. If the polysilicon production increases, it is beneficial for the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon [5]. Polysilicon - In June, there is no obvious improvement in the fundamentals. There is a high probability of a decline in demand, and the supply does not decrease accordingly, so there is a risk of inventory accumulation. Hold short positions cautiously and pay attention to the spread structure and polysilicon production. If the polysilicon production increases, it is beneficial for the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The supply is gradually recovering, the demand has no obvious growth, and the inventory is under pressure after the maintenance. Continue to hold previous short positions and track the implementation of maintenance [7]. - **Glass**: It still faces over - supply pressure, and the price may continue to be under pressure. Adopt a short - term bearish strategy and wait for more cold - repair implementation to bring a real reversal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan Guofu all - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 13,750 to 13,850, an increase of 0.73%. The all - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 289.29% [2]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.38%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.41% [2]. Fundamental Data - In April, Thailand's production decreased by 29.16%, Indonesia's by 7.26%, and India's by 14.34%, while China's increased by 42.30 thousand tons. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires increased by 4.12 percentage points, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 2.23 percentage points. Domestic tire production in April decreased by 5.07%, tire exports by 7.87%, and natural rubber imports by 11.93%. In May, the import of natural and synthetic rubber decreased by 12.03% [2]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.80%, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 23.99% [2]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged. The basis of relevant varieties decreased, with the largest decline of 29.90% [5]. Monthly Spreads - The spreads of 2506 - 2507, 2507 - 2508, 2509 - 2510, and 2510 - 2511 increased, with the largest increase of 266.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10%, Xinjiang's by 20.55%, Yunnan's increased by 9.35%, and Sichuan's increased by 145.65%. The national开工率 decreased by 11.37%, Xinjiang's by 22.18%, Yunnan's by 9.21%, and Sichuan's increased by 1389.80%. In May, the production of silicone DMC increased by 6.48%, polysilicon by 0.73%, and recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.66%. The industrial silicon export in April increased by 1.64% [5]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.15%, Yunnan's increased by 2.79%, Sichuan's increased by 0.44%, the social inventory decreased by 2.56%, the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.51%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4.59% [5]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type re - feedstock, N - type granular silicon decreased by 1.37% and 1.47% respectively, while the average price of P - type cauliflower material remained unchanged. The basis of relevant materials increased, with the largest increase of 8.65% [6]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The PS2506 contract decreased by 1.96%. The spreads of PS2506 - PS2507 increased by 22.00%, while others decreased, with the largest decline of 40.85% [6]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 0.46%, and polysilicon production increased by 8.18%. In May, polysilicon production increased by 0.73%. In April, polysilicon imports decreased by 7.10%, exports decreased by 10.40%, silicon wafer imports decreased by 32.03%, exports increased by 28.29%, and the net export of silicon wafers increased by 42.57%. In May, the silicon wafer demand decreased by 8.10% [6]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 2.23%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.40%. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract decreased by 1.37%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 1.70%. The 05 basis increased by 27.78% [7]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 1.06%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 2.20%. The 05 basis increased by 7.43% [7]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate increased by 8.06%, the weekly soda ash production increased by 8.04%, the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.70%, the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.00%, and the 3.2mm coating mainstream price decreased by 4.76% [7]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.84%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.82%, the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 5.87%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 15.91% [7]. Real Estate Data Year - on - Year - The new construction area increased by 2.99%, the construction area decreased by 7.56%, the completion area increased by 15.67%, and the sales area increased by 12.13% [7].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 13 日星期五 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 2025 年 6 月 13 日星期五 [股指期货 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2055年6月13日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | F期现价差 | -8.60 | 7.23 | 38.10% | 38.1096 | | | | | | | | | | | H期现价差 | -9.08 | 24.60% | 0.66 | 27.00% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -19.93 | 11.81 | 59.40% | 53.90% | IM期现价差 | 7.09 | -35.42 | 90.00% | 34.90% | | 次月-当月 | -42.00 | -2.60 | 0.40% | 6.40% | 李月-当月 | -7 ...

油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 干泽辉 Z0019938 | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8050 | 8080 | -30 | -0.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7394 | 7390 | 4 | 0.05% | | 某差 | Y2509 | 656 | 690 | -34 | -4.93% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+270 | 0 | | | 合单 | | 17552 | 17652 | -100 | -0.57% | 棕榈油 | | | 6月12日 | 6月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8350 | 8450 | -100 | -1.18% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7904 | 7898 | 6 | 0.08% | | 某差 | P2509 | 446 | 552 | -106 | -19.2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has signs of escalation, and oil prices have rebounded significantly. However, under the expectation of weak supply and demand, there is also significant pressure for oil prices to continue rising. If there is no further positive news, oil prices may face a correction. PX supply has increased significantly recently, and the supply - demand margin has weakened, but it still has support in the short term. PTA's supply - demand margin has also weakened, but it has support at low levels. Ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the short term. Short - fiber has a situation of weak supply and demand, and bottle - chip's supply - demand is expected to improve in June [2]. - **Methanol Industry**: The supply of methanol is generally in a loose pattern, and the demand side has a situation where MTO has mostly increased its load but downstream profits have deteriorated. The price can be operated in the range of 2200 - 2350 [21]. - **Styrene Industry**: The price of pure benzene has risen slightly, and the supply of styrene has increased. Downstream 3S profits have improved, and port inventories have decreased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the short - selling opportunities caused by the resonance of raw material ends in the medium term [26]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: The supply of caustic soda has declined recently, and there is pressure on supply and demand in the short term. It is recommended to exit the 7 - 9 positive spread. PVC is expected to fluctuate in the short term and maintain a short - selling idea in the long term [71]. - **PE and PP Industry**: PE has a small increase in domestic supply and a decrease in imports, with limited supply pressure in June. PP has new capacity coming on - stream in June - July, and there is significant pressure on inventory accumulation [74]. - **Urea Industry**: The domestic urea market has a lackluster trading atmosphere, and the futures and spot prices continue to decline. It is expected to remain weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the adjustment of summer agricultural fertilizer preparation and export policies can improve the situation [82]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: Overnight crude oil prices oscillated and declined due to the fading of geopolitical risk premiums. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish approach, pay attention to the expansion opportunities of the monthly spread on the arbitrage side, and consider buying a straddle structure on the options side [86]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: On June 12, Brent crude oil (August) was at $69.36 per barrel, down 0.6% from the previous day; WTI crude oil (July) was at $68.15 per barrel, up 0.2%. CFR Japan naphtha was at $585 per ton, up 2.3% [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price was 6955 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; FDY150/96 price was 7210 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; DTY150/48 price was 8120 yuan per ton, up 0.3% [2]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX was at $818 per ton, up 0.7%; PX spot price (in RMB) was 6770 yuan per ton, down 0.5% [2]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price was 4855 yuan per ton, up 0.6%; TA futures 2509 was at 4620 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. - **MEG - related**: MEG port inventory was 63.4 million tons, up 2.1%; MEG to - port expectation was 12.8 million tons, up from 10.8 million tons [2]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate was 75.1%, up 3.1%; China PX operating rate was 87.0%, up 4.9%; PTA operating rate was 79.7%, up 4.0% [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price was 2353 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; MA2509 closing price was 2290 yuan per ton, up 0.35%; Taicang basis was 85 yuan per ton, up 6.92% [21]. - **Inventories**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 37.912%, up 2.33%; methanol port inventory was 65.2 million tons, up 12.22%; methanol social inventory was 103.1%, up 8.37% [21]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 75.14%, up 0.83%; downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 85.13%, up 0.72% [21]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil (August) was at $69.4 per barrel, down 0.6%; CFR Japan naphtha was at $585 per ton, up 2.3%; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was at $780 per ton, unchanged [23]. - **Spot and Futures**: Styrene East China spot price was 7815 yuan per ton, up 0.7%; EB2507 was at 7353 yuan per ton, up 0.1%; EB basis was 462 yuan per ton, up 12.4% [24]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Styrene CFR China was at $910 per ton, up 0.2%; styrene import profit was 174.6 yuan per ton, up 34.3% [25]. - **Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits**: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive operating rate was 77.2%, up 5.9%; styrene operating rate was 72.3%, up 0.4%; styrene integrated profit was 162.6 yuan per ton, down 61.2% [26]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Spot and Futures**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2718.8 yuan per ton, unchanged; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4720 yuan per ton, unchanged [67]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port caustic soda was at $410 per ton, unchanged; PVC CFR Southeast Asia was at $670 per ton, unchanged [67][68]. - **Supply - side Operating Rates and Profits**: Caustic soda industry operating rate was 87.9%, up 0.8%; PVC total operating rate was 77.5%, up 3.8%; external - procurement calcium - carbide - based PVC profit was - 912 yuan per ton, up 13.3% [69]. - **Demand - side Operating Rates**: Alumina industry operating rate was 78.8%, up 0.7%; viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 80.6%, unchanged [70]. - **Inventories**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 23.3 million tons, up 11.9%; PVC upstream factory inventory was 39.8 million tons, up 3.5% [71]. PE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 closing price was 7086 yuan per ton, up 0.16%; PP2601 closing price was 6918 yuan per ton, up 0.14%; East China PP drawbench spot price was 7040 yuan per ton, unchanged [74]. - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate was 79.2%, up 2.27%; PP device operating rate was 78.6%, up 2.1% [74]. - **Inventories**: PE enterprise inventory was 50.9 million tons, down 1.74%; PP enterprise inventory was 58.1 million tons, down 3.93% [74]. Urea Industry - **Futures Closing Prices**: 01 contract was at 1635 yuan per ton, down 0.73%; 05 contract was at 1664 yuan per ton, down 1.25%; 09 contract was at 1646 yuan per ton, down 1.26% [77]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: 01 contract - 05 contract was - 29 yuan per ton, up 23.68%; UR - MA main contract was - 655 yuan per ton, down 3.15% [78]. - **Main Positions**: Long top 20 was 176769 lots, up 6.68%; short top 20 was 197913 lots, up 8.10%; long - short ratio was 0.89, down 1.32% [79]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) were at 900 yuan per ton, down 5.26%; synthetic ammonia (Shandong) was at 2239 yuan per ton, down 0.18% [80]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Shandong (small particles) was at 1740 yuan per ton, down 0.57%; FOB China: small particles were at $360 per ton, unchanged [81]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily output was 20.68 million tons, up 1.00%; domestic urea weekly output was 141.32 million tons, down 1.82%; domestic urea factory inventory (weekly) was 117.71 million tons, up 13.69% [82]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent was at $69.36 per barrel, down 0.59%; WTI was at $68.79 per barrel, up 1.10%; Brent M1 - M3 was $1.69 per barrel, up 3.05% [86]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB was 215.90 cents per gallon, up 0.75%; NYM ULSD was 220.77 cents per gallon, up 0.87%; ICE Gasoil was $645 per ton, up 1.45% [86]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: US gasoline crack spread was $21.89 per barrel, down 0.34%; European diesel crack spread was $20.55 per barrel, down 1.32% [86].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, and analyzes the changes in total positions, main - contract positions, and the positions of the top 20 long and short seats for each type of futures [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - **Total and Main - Contract Position Changes**: On June 12, the total position of the IF variety decreased by 15,578 lots, and the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 12,832 lots [3]. - **Top 20 Long - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IF variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 38,709 lots. Everbright Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 455 lots, while Haitong Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 3,060 lots [4]. - **Top 20 Short - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IF variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 44,979 lots. CICC Futures had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 1,186 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 3,658 lots [6]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total and Main - Contract Position Changes**: On June 12, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 1,138 lots, and the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 1,641 lots [9]. - **Top 20 Long - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IH variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 8,204 lots. Everbright Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 439 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 746 lots [10]. - **Top 20 Short - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IH variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 10,143 lots. CICC Futures had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 553 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 941 lots [11]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total and Main - Contract Position Changes**: On June 12, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 2,651 lots, and the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 5,216 lots [15]. - **Top 20 Long - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IC variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 35,438 lots. Huatai Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 318 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 939 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Short - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IC variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 35,911 lots. CICC Wealth had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 441 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 1,788 lots [17]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total and Main - Contract Position Changes**: On June 12, the total position of the IM variety increased by 2,007 lots, and the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 1,939 lots [22]. - **Top 20 Long - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IM variety, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 41,872 lots. Haitong Futures had the most long - position increase, with an intraday increase of 1,133 lots, while Everbright Futures had the most long - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 550 lots [23]. - **Top 20 Short - Seat Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IM variety, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 57,160 lots. Haitong Futures had the most short - position increase, with an intraday increase of 947 lots, while Huatai Futures had the most short - position decrease, with an intraday decrease of 535 lots [25].

库存:主要港口库存 (周度) 原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 期货和现货价格 品种 6月12日 6月11日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 原木2507 765.0 0.0 765.0 0.00% 原木2509 783.5 784.5 -1.0 -0.13% -2.0 -0.25% 原木2511 788.0 790.0 7-9价差 -18.5 -19.5 1.0 9-11价差 -4.5 -5.5 1.0 2.0 7-11价差 -25.0 -23.0 07合约基差 -25.0 -10.0 -15.0 09合约基差 -43.5 -34.5 -9.0 元/立方米 11合约基差 -40.0 -8.0 -48.0 -10 日照港3.9A小辐射松 720.0 -1.39% 710.0 日照港3.9A中辐射松 740 750 -10 -1.33% 日照港3.9A大辐射松 830 0 0.00% 830 -1.35% 太仓港 4A 小辐射松 730 -10 740 -1.30% 太仓港 4A 中辐射松 760 770 -10 太仓港 4A 大辐射松 0 0.00% 800 800 日照港云杉11.8 ...