1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Palm Oil - Affected by a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, palm oil futures prices will continue to trade in a range. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are consolidating, with short - term prices holding above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the moving average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can hold above 4,000 ringgit [1]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to the movements of related varieties. Although the purchase of US soybeans by Cofco this week boosted CBOT soybean prices, global soybean supply remains ample, keeping CBOT soybeans under pressure. In the domestic market, the pre - Spring Festival stocking period and reduced soybean imports are positive factors, but CBOT soybeans may still correct after a short - term rebound, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces resistance around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - With limited available domestic rapeseed oil in the spot market, the market is closely watching whether COFCO will start operations on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the downside for rapeseed oil in the short term is limited, and the overall trend will be a wide - range shock adjustment [1]. 2.4 Red Dates - Downstream demand is on a need - to - buy basis, with more buyers inspecting goods, but there is no significant improvement in trading volume. Spot prices are weakly stable. Driven by positive sentiment in the commodity market, futures prices rebounded, and the basis narrowed. The generation of new - season warehouse receipts is accelerating. The pre - Spring Festival stocking and actual inventory - reduction progress should be monitored. In the short term, there is no obvious fundamental driver, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. 2.5 Corn - In the northeast, corn trading is average, and prices are stable, while in the north port, prices declined slightly due to increased arrivals. In the north China region, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants is low. However, due to profit losses, plants are not willing to raise prices, so prices are generally stable. On the demand side, low inventory at the north port supports prices, but deep - processing plants' profit losses limit their acceptance of high - priced corn, and feed companies have sufficient inventory. Policy - wise, the targeted auction of imported corn and the start of competitive sales supplement market supply but have limited short - term impact. In the short term, the reluctance to sell and downstream restocking support the futures market, but selling pressure and policy - driven supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. 2.6 Sugar - As the Brazilian sugarcane crushing season nears its end, its influence on the raw sugar market is diminishing. The market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere's sugarcane production. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is increasing, while Thailand's production is still down year - on - year. In the short term, prices are expected to trade in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, pre - Spring Festival stocking has boosted sales, and December's Guangxi production and sales data met expectations. However, as it is the peak of the sugar - making season, market participants are cautious, and price increases face resistance. Sugar prices are expected to remain in a low - level range - bound pattern [8][9]. 2.7 Apples - With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the trading atmosphere in the apple market has warmed up, and the number of trucks arriving at wholesale markets has increased. High - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption, and competition from other fruits (such as citrus) has put pressure on ordinary apples' inventory. Futures prices have rebounded, and delivery profits have improved. Attention should be paid to inventory - reduction progress [13]. 2.8 Cotton - ICE cotton futures declined due to falling crude oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US cotton - growing areas, rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, and an increasing drought index are in line with the winter La Nina weather pattern. USDA export sales have returned to normal levels, and shipments have slowed. In the domestic market, processing enterprises are holding firm on prices, and the basis is strong. The core drivers are the expected reduction in cotton planting in Xinjiang and downstream restocking, but low - cost foreign cotton and the off - season demand limit price increases. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to remain bullish, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. 2.9 Eggs - Based on previous chick sales data, the number of laying hens entering the laying period in January is expected to be lower than the number of old hens leaving the flock, potentially reducing the laying - hen inventory and easing supply pressure. After continuous price increases, the downstream market is resistant to high - priced eggs, and all sectors are actively selling. Egg prices in the production areas are mixed. Market circulation is smooth, and inventory levels are low. As the traditional consumption peak approaches, downstream stocking demand is rising, but due to relatively ample supply, the main contract is expected to trade in a low - level range [18]. 2.10 Pigs - Spot pig prices have returned to a range - bound pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. In the north, pig sales have decreased, but high prices have dampened slaughterhouses' purchasing enthusiasm. In the south, demand has dropped sharply, providing little support for prices. Some second - fattening operations are still buying, but overall enthusiasm is low due to high current prices and weak future expectations. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but pigs are expected to be sold in mid - to - late January, and the overall supply in January is expected to be ample. Futures prices were previously strong due to market sentiment, but the upside is limited, and there will be pressure later [19]. 2.11 Meal - Affected by funds and sentiment, US soybean prices are strong, but the global supply - demand situation remains loose, and the expected high - yield in South America continues to suppress prices. The market is waiting for the USDA supply - demand report next Monday for new trading guidance. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and soybean meal remains ample, but the expected future tightness supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The expected low arrivals in the first quarter are uncertain due to auctions and arrival schedules. The downside for soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy. In the short term, with positive macro sentiment, the futures market will be range - bound and bullish [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data 3.1.1 Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (Y2605) was 7,958 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day, and the basis was 502 yuan, down 8.39% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (P2605) was 8,562 yuan, up 0.73%, and the basis was 8 yuan, down 88.57%. The import cost at Guangzhou Port for May was 8,930 yuan, down 0.18%, and the import profit was - 368 yuan, up 17.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (OI605) was 9,130 yuan, down 0.38%, and the basis was 802 yuan, up 4.55% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread for the three oils was 150 yuan, up 8.70%; for palm oil, it was 110 yuan, down 6.78%; for rapeseed oil, it was 14 yuan, down 73.08%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 110 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 2.72%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1,440 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 6.65% [1]. 3.1.2 Red Dates - On January 8, the price of the main contract (2605) was 9,150 yuan/ton, up 1.95%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, up 35.71%, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 180 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The basis for Cangzhou's top - grade red dates was - 75 yuan/ton, up 60%. The total number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,008, up 1.72% [2]. 3.1.3 Corn - The price of the March 2026 corn contract (2603) was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 1.17%. The basis was 72 yuan, down 30.10%. The 3 - 7 spread was - 36 yuan, up 21.74%. The north - south trading profit was - 21 yuan, down 31.25%, and the import profit was 267 yuan, up 3.71% [5]. 3.1.4 Sugar - The May 2026 sugar futures price (2605) was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 12 yuan, up 25%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the basis was 69 yuan, down 14.81%. Nationwide, the cumulative sugar production was 105 million tons, down 23.24%, and the cumulative sales were 35 million tons, down 42.53% [8]. 3.1.5 Apples - The price of the main contract (2605) was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The 5 - 10 spread was 1,109 yuan, up 2.40%. The basis was - 1,383 yuan, up 2.19%. The total number of trucks arriving at three major fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 million tons, down 1.41% [10]. 3.1.6 Cotton - The May 2026 cotton futures price (2605) was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 190 yuan, down 2.70%. The Xinjiang ex - factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,574 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The commercial inventory was 534.9 million tons, up 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 million tons, up 4.7% [16]. 3.1.7 Eggs - The March 2026 egg futures price (03) was 3,011 yuan/500 kg, up 0.37%. The basis was 86 yuan/500 kg, up 69.26%. The 3 - 4 spread was - 253 yuan, down 1.20%. The price of egg - laying chicks was 2.8 yuan per chick, unchanged, and the price of culled hens was 3.95 yuan per catty, up 2.07% [18]. 3.1.8 Pigs - The price of the May 2026 pig futures contract (2605) was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The basis of the main contract was 1,215 yuan, up 6.58%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 475 yuan, down 6.74%. The spot price in Henan was 13,000 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The self - breeding profit per pig was - 35 yuan, up 73.41%, and the number of fertile sows was 3,990 million heads, down 1.12% [19]. 3.1.9 Meal - For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3,120 yuan, up 0.65%. The May 2026 futures price (M2605) was 2,811 yuan, up 1.26%, and the basis was 300 yuan, down 4.63%. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans for February shipment was 157 yuan, up 45.4%. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan, up 2.05%, and the May 2026 futures price (RM2605) was 2,419 yuan, up 1.21% [21].

Report on Precious Metals Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Gold: As funds quickly exit the market before the Spring Festival, the price has corrected. The market may focus on the impact of US economic data on Fed policies and geopolitical tensions in South America. Uncertainties are expected to keep precious metals highly volatile in January. Gold long positions above $4300 should be held [1]. - Silver: Long - position funds have significantly increased their holdings through ETFs and physical delivery, driving up the price. However, high prices may suppress industrial demand. The "irrational" price increase driven by short - term funds is expected to end, and attention should be paid to the risk of passive reduction due to the re - balancing of global commodity indices. A light - position and low - buying strategy above $70 is recommended [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: With strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and relatively undervalued prices compared to gold, value re - evaluation is being driven by funds. They are expected to continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term speculation has weakened, and with a strong external market, long positions are recommended on the 20 - day line [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures Prices**: Most domestic and foreign precious metal futures prices declined on January 7, 2026. For example, the AU2602 contract fell by 0.60% to 998.90 yuan/gram, and the COMEX gold主力合约 dropped by 0.86% to 4467.10 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot precious metal prices also declined. London gold fell by 0.87% to 4456.07 dollars/ounce, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D decreased by 0.27% to 999.20 yuan/gram [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 and silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 increased, with historical 1 - year quantiles of 95.10% and 98.30% respectively [1]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio rose by 3.26% to 57.29, while the NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio decreased by 2.89% to 1.26 [1]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.7% to 4.15%, and the US dollar index rose by 0.14% to 98.74 [1]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory decreased by 0.05% to 97653, and the silver inventory dropped by 4.82% to 553429 kilograms [1]. Report on Treasury Bond Futures Spreads Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Category - **Basis**: On January 7, 2026, the TS basis was 1.3387, the TF basis was 1.5487, the T basis was 1.4478, and the TL basis was 1.5565. Their changes and historical quantiles are also reported [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: There are various inter - delivery spreads for different Treasury bond futures contracts, such as the TS, TF, T, and TL. For example, the TS's "current quarter - next quarter" spread was - 0.0300 [2]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also inter - variety spreads, like TS - TF, TS - T, etc. For instance, the TS - TF spread was - 3.1680 [2]. Report on Stock Index Futures Spreads Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Category - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: The IF spot - futures spread was - 23.67, the IH was - 1.32, the IC was - 72.48, and the IM was - 146.22 on January 7, 2026, along with their changes and historical quantiles [4]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: There are multiple inter - delivery spreads for different stock index futures contracts. For example, the IF's "next month - current month" spread was - 4772.80 [4]. - **Inter - variety Ratios**: There are various inter - variety ratios, such as the ratio of the CSI 500 to the SSE 300, which was 1.6487, and its change and historical quantiles are also given [4]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Category - **Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) increased by 15.11% to 1312.71, and the SCFIS (US West route) rose by 28.24% to 1107.32. The Shanghai export container freight rates also showed increases for different routes [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Most container shipping futures prices declined on January 7, 2026. For example, the EC2602 contract fell by 5.00% to 1779.1. The basis of the main contract was - 220.3 [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply remained stable, with a 0.00% change. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai decreased by 18.50%, while the port calls increased by 5.83%. The monthly export amount increased by 8.23% [7]. - **Overseas Economy**: The Eurozone's composite PMI decreased by 2.46% to 51.50, and the US manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.62% to 47.90 [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report [1] 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: With the rapid exit of pre - holiday funds, the gold market has adjusted. In January, precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility due to uncertainties such as US economic data's impact on Fed policy and South American geopolitical situations. Gold long positions above $4300 should be held [1] - Silver: Long - position funds have increased holdings through ETFs and physical delivery, driving the price up. Global inventory shortages may not be truly resolved, but high prices may suppress industrial demand. After the CME and other exchanges raise margins, the "irrational" upward trend driven by short - term funds is expected to end. In high - volatility markets, a light - position and low - buying strategy above $70 is recommended [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Due to strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and undervalued prices relative to gold, funds are driving value re - evaluation. They are expected to continue their upward trend in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, with reduced speculative sentiment and narrowing fluctuations, it is advisable to buy on dips near the 20 - day moving average [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - On January 7, 2026, the AU2602 gold contract closed at 998.90 yuan/gram, down 0.60% from the previous day; the AG2604 silver contract closed at 19290 yuan/kilogram, down 0.83%; the PT2606 platinum contract closed at 598.50 yuan/gram, down 2.97%; the PD2606 palladium contract closed at 475.95 yuan/gram, up 0.86% [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - On January 7, 2026, the COMEX gold main contract closed at $4467.10, down 0.86%; the COMEX silver main contract closed at $77.98, down 3.99%; the NYMEX platinum main contract closed at $2290.40 per ounce, down 6.74%; the NYMEX palladium main contract closed at $1817.00, down 3.96% [1] Spot Prices - On January 7, 2026, the London gold price was $4456.07, down 0.87%; the London silver price was $78.28, down 3.56%; the spot platinum price was $2297.55 per ounce, down 2.73%; the spot palladium price was $1755.73, down 0.97%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was 999.20 yuan/gram, down 0.27%; the silver T + D was 19365 yuan/kilogram, down 0.67%; the platinum 9995 was 606 yuan/gram, up 5.56% [1] Basis - As of January 7, 2026, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was 0.30, up 3.36 from the previous value, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 95.10%; the basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was 75, up 32, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 98.30%; the basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 11.03, down 0.47, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 68.60%; the basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.30, up 0.35, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 91.50% [1] Price Ratios - On January 7, 2026, the COMEX gold/silver ratio was 57.29, up 3.26% from the previous day; the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 51.78, up 0.23%. The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.26, down 2.89%; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.26, down 3.79% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - On January 7, 2026, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15%, down 0.7% from the previous day; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, unchanged. The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.88%, down 1.6%. The US dollar index was 98.74, up 0.14%; the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9935, up 0.18% [1] Inventory and Positions - As of January 7, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 97,653, down 0.05%; the silver inventory was 553,429 kilograms, down 4.82%. The COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 36,403,452; the silver inventory was 445,737,395, down 0.77%. The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 19,329,396; the silver registered warehouse receipts were 127,185,964, up 0.38%. The SPDR Gold ETF position remained at 1067; the SLV Silver ETF position was 16,100, down 0.11% [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月8日 黑色系 | 49.00% | | | --- | --- | | 8.60% | | | 9.70% | | | 34.80% | | | 25.50% | | | 24.60% | | | 教据来源：Wind、Mysteel、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。历史分位数：根据各品种近五年的基差水平排序 | 48.40% | 光页户明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货 有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但 广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整 性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人 | 品种/合约 | 现货价格 | 期货价格 | 基差 | 基差率 | 历史分位数 | 现货参考 | 留注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 44.80% | | | | | | | | | 14.20% | | | | 文部（中国共同） | | | | 0 | 57.60% | (130(10) - 1 2 | | | | | | | | 7.30% | CP 25 11 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 8, 2026, the log futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract LG2603 closing at 782 yuan per cubic meter, up 8 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day [3] - The spot price of the main benchmark delivery product remained unchanged. The price of medium A radiata pine of 3.9 meters in Shandong was 740 yuan per cubic meter, and that of medium A radiata pine of 4 meters in Jiangsu was 730 yuan per cubic meter. The latest round of FOB quotes was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars [3] - Last week, inventory started to accumulate. As of January 2, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from the previous week. Demand continued to decline slightly. As of January 2, the average daily log delivery volume was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters from the previous week [3] - From January 5 - 11, 2026, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 1 ship from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 8%; the total arrival volume is about 479,000 cubic meters, an increase of 70,500 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 17% [3] - The 01 contract continued to be deeply discounted for delivery, and the buyer's willingness to take delivery remained poor. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expected decrease in later shipments, but the demand remains weak and the upward adjustment space is limited. Overall, the contradiction is insufficient, with limited upward and downward drivers, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - On January 7, the prices of log futures contracts 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 were 742, 782, 790.5, and 802 respectively, with changes of -25.5, 8, 5.5, and 5 compared to January 6, and the corresponding price change percentages were -3.32%, 1.03%, 0.70%, and 0.63% respectively. The basis of the main contract was -42, a decrease of 8 compared to January 6 [1] - The spot prices of various types of radiata pine and spruce in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on January 7 compared to January 6 [1] - The FOB quote of medium A 4 - meter radiata pine on January 9 was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 2 US dollars compared to January 2, with a decrease rate of 1.79%; the FOB quote of 11.8 - meter spruce was 124 euros per JAS cubic meter, unchanged from January 2 [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 7, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.984, an increase of 0.01 compared to January 6. The import theoretical cost was 756.62 yuan, a decrease of 12.50 yuan compared to January 6, with a decrease rate of 2% [1] Supply: Monthly - As of November 30, the shipping volume from the port was 1.914 million cubic meters, an increase of 22,000 cubic meters compared to October 31, with an increase rate of 1.16%. The number of departing vessels from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 52, an increase of 3 compared to the previous period, with an increase rate of 6.12% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory - As of January 2, the total domestic log inventory was 2.67 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with an increase rate of 5.12%. The inventory in Shandong was 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 98,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with an increase rate of 5.29%. The inventory in Jiangsu was 508,800 cubic meters [1][3] Demand: (Weekly) Average Daily Delivery Volume - As of January 2, the average daily log delivery volume in China was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 18,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with a decrease rate of 3%. The average daily delivery volume in Shandong was 28,900 cubic meters, an increase of 1,000 cubic meters compared to December 26, with an increase rate of 4%. The average daily delivery volume in Jiangsu was 21,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 2,700 cubic meters compared to December 26, with a decrease rate of 11% [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products, including plastics, iron ore, soymeal, silver, stock indices, treasury bonds, precious metals, shipping, steel, and more [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Indices - The post - holiday opening of the stock index futures showed a significant increase in volume, with strong momentum to break through previous highs and a concentrated main - line structure, resulting in differentiated performance among stock indices. It is recommended to hold bull - spread portfolios, and build covered call portfolios on dips while controlling risks and avoiding heavy single - sided positions. The IC component is more in line with the main - line structure and performs stronger [3]. Treasury Bonds - The current abundant liquidity supports the bond market, while concerns about supply and the strengthening of the equity market restrain the performance of long - term bonds. It is expected that market consensus behavior may amplify volatility. The stabilization or recovery of long - term bonds will occur after the supply structure of government bonds becomes clearer. For the single - sided strategy, it is advisable to wait and see, and the curve strategy still tends to steepen in the medium term [3]. Precious Metals - In January, precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility due to uncertainties such as the impact of US economic data on Fed policies and geopolitical situations. Gold long positions should be held above $4,300. Attention should be paid to the potential callback risk caused by the rebalancing of the global commodity index. For silver, it is recommended to maintain a light long - position above $70. For platinum and palladium, it is advisable to buy on dips near the 20 - day moving average [3]. Shipping - The container shipping futures (EC2602) are expected to decline in the short - term, with a downward trend in the market [3]. Steel - The rise in raw material prices drives up steel prices. For May rebar, pay attention to the resistance at 3,200 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, pay attention to 3,350 yuan. Iron ore is boosted by macro news and faces a supply off - season, with a short - term long - position strategy in the range of 770 - 840 [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, hold long positions cautiously with light positions, and pay attention to the support at 99,000 - 100,000. For aluminum, beware of short - term callback risks, and wait for a pullback to build long positions. For zinc, hold long positions and continue the inter - market reverse arbitrage. For tin, it shows a strong - side oscillation. For nickel, reduce long positions on rallies, and for stainless steel, it shows a strong - side oscillation [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX and PTA, they are in a high - level oscillation before the holiday, with a short - term range of 7,000 - 7,500 and 5,000 - 5,200 respectively, and a medium - term low - buying strategy. For short - fiber, follow the raw material trend and reduce the processing fee on rallies. For ethanol, sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies and conduct a reverse arbitrage between May and September contracts [3]. Agricultural Products - Soymeal and rapeseed meal show a strong - side oscillation. For livestock products like pigs, pay attention to the post - holiday demand decline and the slaughter rhythm. For grains like corn, the spot price is stable and the market shows an upward trend. For oils and fats, they are boosted by the domestic loose monetary policy and show a range - bound oscillation [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including the total position changes and the important changes of the top 20 seats of IF, IH, IC, and IM [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 7, the total position of the IF variety decreased by 7,604 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 decreased by 4,149 lots [4]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IF variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 46,393 lots. The largest increase in long positions was by Guotou Futures, with an intraday increase of 1,299 lots; the largest decrease was by Haitong Futures, with an intraday decrease of 2,757 lots [5]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 38,770 lots. The largest increase in short positions was by Guotou Futures, with an intraday increase of 1,292 lots; the largest decrease was by Haitong Futures, with an intraday decrease of 2,190 lots [7]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 7, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 8,228 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 decreased by 888 lots [10]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 10,503 lots. The largest increase in long positions was by CICC Wealth, with an intraday increase of 83 lots; the largest decrease was by CITIC Futures, with an intraday decrease of 1,789 lots [11]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IH variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 12,803 lots. The largest increase in short positions was by Galaxy Futures, with an intraday increase of 29 lots; the largest decrease was by CITIC Futures, with an intraday decrease of 1,569 lots [12]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 7, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 888 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 decreased by 118 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IC variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 47,754 lots. The largest increase in long positions was by Yide Futures, with an intraday increase of 840 lots; the largest decrease was by Guotai Junan Futures, with an intraday decrease of 1,782 lots [17]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 51,645 lots. The largest increase in short positions was by Haitong Futures, with an intraday increase of 1,618 lots; the largest decrease was by Guotai Junan Futures, with an intraday decrease of 2,351 lots [18]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On January 7, the total position of the IM variety decreased by 2,026 lots, and the position of the main contract 2603 decreased by 3,660 lots [22]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IM variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 56,694 lots. The largest increase in long positions was by Haitong Futures, with an intraday increase of 2,242 lots; the largest decrease was by Shenyin Wanguo Futures, with an intraday decrease of 1,071 lots [23]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 73,805 lots. The largest increase in short positions was by Haitong Futures, with an intraday increase of 1,092 lots; the largest decrease was by CITIC Futures, with an intraday decrease of 723 lots [24].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Affected by mixed fundamentals, the futures price will continue to fluctuate within a range. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a volatile consolidation trend, with short - term support above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the moving - average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can firmly stand above 4,000 ringgit [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to related varieties. Although China's purchase of US soybeans boosts CBOT soybean prices, the abundant global soybean supply still weighs on it. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking and reduced soybean imports are positive, but the CBOT soybean price may still correct, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces pressure around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: With limited domestic available spot, the market is watching whether COFCO will start production on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the short - term downside is limited, and the overall trend is wide - range volatile adjustment [1]. - **Jujube**: The spot market price is weakly stable, with increased customer inquiries but no significant improvement in transactions. Affected by the warming commodity market sentiment, the futures price rebounds, and the basis narrows. The new - season warehouse receipt generation accelerates. Short - term fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the futures price will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the corn market is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream replenishment needs, but selling pressure expectations and policy - supplemented supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar - cane crushing is nearing the end, and the market focus shifts to the Northern Hemisphere. India's sugar production has increased year - on - year, while Thailand's is still down. The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking demand is strong, but the peak - season supply and cautious market sentiment limit the upside, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8][9]. - **Apple**: With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the market is more active, with good - quality apples in short supply and high prices. However, the high price may suppress consumption, and other fruits compete with apples. The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress [13]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are under pressure from falling oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US, the cotton - growing area is experiencing rising temperatures and reduced precipitation. The domestic cotton price is supported by strong expectations of reduced planting in Xinjiang and downstream replenishment, but is restricted by low foreign cotton costs and the off - season demand. In the short term, the cotton price will maintain a bullish trend, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. - **Egg**: Based on previous chick - sales data, the laying - hen inventory may decrease in January, alleviating supply pressure. After the continuous increase in egg prices, the market resists high - priced goods. The current market circulation is smooth, and inventories are low. With the approaching traditional consumption peak, the market sentiment is bullish, but the oversupply situation may limit the upside, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level [18]. - **Pig**: The spot price has returned to a volatile pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. Although the northern pig supply has decreased, high prices have dampened slaughterhouse procurement enthusiasm, and the southern demand has also weakened. Some second - fattening operations are still taking place, but overall enthusiasm is low. The market expects high consumption before the Spring Festival, but the supply in January is abundant, and the futures price is affected by market sentiment, with limited upside potential [19]. - **Meal**: The external market is under pressure from the global supply - demand situation, and the market awaits the USDA supply - demand report. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and meals is currently abundant, but the expected future shortage supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The first - quarter soybean arrival is expected to be low, but there is uncertainty in auctions and arrivals. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the short - term market sentiment is positive, with the futures price fluctuating strongly [21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1. Price and Spread - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - **Palm Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of P2605 was 8,562 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan or 0.73% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of Y2605 was 7,958 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 0.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of OI2605 was 9,606 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.38% [1]. - **Jujube**: The futures prices of jujube 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, with the 2605 contract rising 175 yuan or 1.95% to 9,150 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2603 was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.17%, and the basis was 72 yuan, down 31 yuan or 30.10% [5]. - **Sugar**: The futures price of sugar 2605 was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.42% [8]. - **Apple**: The futures price of the apple 2605 contract was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 0.32% [10]. - **Cotton**: The futures price of cotton 2605 was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan or 1.21% [16]. - **Egg**: The futures price of the egg 03 contract was 3,011 yuan/500KG, up 11 yuan or 0.37% [18]. - **Pig**: The futures price of the pig 2605 contract was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% [19]. - **Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal M2605 was 2,811 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.26%, and the futures price of rapeseed meal RM2605 was 2,419 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 1.21% [21]. - **Spreads**: - **Three - oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread of the three - oil was 150 yuan, up 12 yuan or 8.70% [1]. - **Palm Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 110 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 6.78% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 14 yuan, down 38 yuan or - 73.08% [1]. - **Soybean - Palm Oil Spread**: The spot spread was - 110 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 2.72% [1]. - **Rapeseed - Soybean Oil Spread**: The spot spread was 1,440 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 81 yuan or - 6.65% [1]. - **Jujube 5 - 7 Spread**: It was - 45 yuan, up 25 yuan or 35.71% [2]. - **Jujube 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 180 yuan, up 40 yuan or 18.18% [2]. - **Corn 3 - 7 Spread**: It was - 36 yuan, up 10 yuan or 21.74% [5]. - **Sugar 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 12 yuan, up 4 yuan or 25.00% [8]. - **Apple 5 - 10 Spread**: It was 1,109 yuan, up 26 yuan or 2.40% [10]. - **Cotton 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 190 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 2.70% [16]. - **Egg 3 - 4 Spread**: It was - 253 yuan, down 3 yuan or - 1.20% [18]. - **Pig 3 - 5 Spread**: It was - 475 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 6.74% [19]. - **Soybean Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 77 yuan, up 18 yuan or 18.95% [21]. - **Rapeseed Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 46 yuan, up 1 yuan or 2.13% [21]. 3.2. Inventory and Supply - demand - **Inventory**: - **Palm Oil**: The warehouse receipt on January 7 was 1,248, up 688 or 122.86% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 28,264 (unchanged) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 2,130, down 1,167 [1]. - **Jujube**: The warehouse receipt was 2,263, up 158 or 7.51%, and the effective forecast was 745, down 107 or - 12.56% [2]. - **Corn**: The warehouse receipt was 34,655, up 3,000 or 9.48% [5]. - **Sugar**: The warehouse receipt was unchanged at 1000, and the effective forecast was 4,563 (unchanged) [8]. - **Apple**: The national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 tons, down 10.48 tons or - 1.41% [10]. - **Cotton**: The commercial inventory was 534.90 tons, up 66.54 tons or 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 tons, up 4.43 tons or 4.7% [16]. - **Meal**: The soybean meal warehouse receipt was 25,480, up 700 or 2.8% [21]. - **Supply - demand**: - **Sugar**: The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 23.24% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales decreased by 42.53% year - on - year. In Guangxi, the cumulative production decreased by 73.87% year - on - year, and the monthly sales decreased by 68.63% year - on - year [8]. - **Cotton**: The import volume increased by 33.3% month - on - month, and the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year [16]. - **Pig**: The slaughter volume increased by 0.63% day - on - day, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits improved [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Methanol - The methanol futures dropped rapidly in the morning due to the news of Sierbang's shutdown in February and stabilized in the afternoon. The market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern in the short - term driven by cost support and inventory reduction expectations. The port inventory may enter a destocking cycle in the first quarter [1]. LLDPE and PP - Upstream producers continue to hold prices firm, and spot prices have followed the futures up. The market has supply contraction expectations due to rumors. The short - term price of LLDPE and PP is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, but attention should be paid to policy implementation and downstream acceptance of high - priced goods [4]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The short - term supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is weak, and its price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. For styrene, although the short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, there is an inventory accumulation risk around the Spring Festival, and its rebound space is limited [6]. LPG - No specific view is given in the provided content about the future trend of LPG, only price, inventory and other data are presented [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the supply - demand situation is under pressure, and the upward space of the price is limited. For glass, although the spot price has risen slightly driven by the futures, the upward space of the market is also restricted, and the market may return to a weak - reality logic [11]. Natural Rubber - The cost of rubber is supported by the rising raw material prices in Thailand, but the downstream's weak buying power restricts the upward movement of rubber prices. Future attention should be paid to the raw material situation in Thailand [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to be stable and weak in the short - term due to oversupply. The PVC market is mainly driven by emotional fluctuations, and there is a risk of a fall after reaching a high level [14]. Urea - The short - term urea price is expected to be strong and volatile, affected by the Indian tender and macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of production devices and downstream demand [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX and PTA, the supply - demand situation in the first quarter is expected to weaken, and prices are expected to fluctuate. For MEG, there is a large inventory accumulation expectation in the near - term. Short - fiber's absolute price has weak driving force, and bottle - chip will follow the cost end [16]. Crude Oil - The international oil price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term due to the long - term supply surplus pressure and large inventory accumulation of refined oil products [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2605 closed at 2267, down 1.13% from the previous day; MA2609 closed at 2247, up 0.31%. The MA59 spread decreased by 62.26%. The inventory of methanol enterprises and ports increased, and the downstream MTO device's operating rate decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory was 44.768, up 5.94%; the port inventory was 153.7 tons, up 4.05%; the social inventory was 198.5, up 4.47% [1]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 77.67, down 0.41%, and the downstream MTO device's operating rate was 79.35, down 7.37% [1]. LLDPE and PP - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all increased. The L15 spread and PP15 spread also changed [4]. - **Inventory**: PE social inventory increased by 2.04%, PP enterprise inventory decreased by 7.99%, and trade - related inventory decreased [4]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate increased by 0.72%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.63%. The PP device operating rate decreased by 0.17%, and the powder operating rate increased by 2.04% [4]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, etc. changed. The price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 0.6% [6]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The price of styrene in East China increased slightly, and the EB cash - flow also changed [6]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 6.0%, and the styrene inventory decreased by 4.7%. The operating rate of some products changed [6]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PG2602, PG2603, etc. changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed [8]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio was 24.3, up 0.91%, and the port inventory was 214 tons, down 8.41% [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate remained unchanged at 75.11%, and the downstream PDH operating rate was 75.1, down 1.65% [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda ash in different regions and futures contracts changed, and the basis also changed [11]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.07%, and the inventory increased. The glass daily melting volume decreased [11]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate were presented [11]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased by 0.64%, and the basis decreased by 7.50% [12]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: The production of natural rubber in Thailand and Indonesia in November decreased, and the operating rate of domestic tires changed [12]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 4.48%, and the warehouse - receipt inventory in the SHFE remained almost unchanged [12]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased slightly, and the PVC total operating rate decreased. The downstream operating rates of both decreased [14]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in some regions changed, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 6.8% [14]. Urea - **Futures Price and Spread**: The closing prices of urea futures contracts changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed [15]. - **Upstream and Spot Price**: The prices of upstream raw materials and urea in different regions changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea remained stable, and the inventory increased slightly [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. changed [16]. - **Downstream Product Price and Cash - flow**: The prices and cash - flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [16]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The MEG port inventory decreased by 0.7%, and the operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain changed [16]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil decreased, and the spreads between contracts also changed [17]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil decreased, and the spreads between contracts changed [17]. - **Product Spread**: The spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Affected by multiple factors such as sudden geopolitical events and macro - economic expectations, tin prices rose sharply. It is expected that short - term prices will be mainly driven by macro factors and remain strongly volatile [2]. Nickel Industry - Recently, the expectation of Indonesia's increased control over nickel mines has boosted market sentiment. The actual implementation remains to be observed, but short - term quota uncertainties and strong capital sentiment still provide some support. The nickel price may fluctuate widely at high levels, with a reference range of 140,000 - 150,000 [4]. Stainless Steel Industry - The supply pressure has slightly eased, and the cost support from the ore and nickel - iron sectors has strengthened, but the demand boost in the off - season is still insufficient. The stainless - steel market is in a supply - demand game. After the release of the positive sentiment from the nickel - ore news, the further upward drive may be limited. In the short term, the price is expected to remain strong, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 14,200 [7]. Lithium Industry - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand maintains a certain level of resilience. However, in the off - season, the power market orders decline, and the destocking speed slows down. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract possibly testing the 150,000 resistance level and then adjusting downward [11]. Copper Industry - The medium - to - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price has over - priced the long - term benefits and is overvalued to some extent. However, in a high - risk - appetite market environment, the short - term price may still remain strong, with the main contract focusing on the 99,000 - 100,000 support level [13]. Zinc Industry - Supported by the tight domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc - ingot inventory, and pressured by the expected supply of imported ores, the short - term zinc price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro environment, with the main contract focusing on the 23,300 - 23,400 support level [17]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the market surplus pressure is still severe, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line. For aluminum, strong macro and policy expectations provide a bottom support, but the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will suppress the upward space. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely at high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum in the reference range of 23,400 - 24,400 [19]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand in January. The price is expected to remain low and volatile, with a main fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon price will remain high and volatile. In January, under the weak - demand background, there is a pressure to further reduce production to balance supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to future production cuts and price - adjustment acceptance [22]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The ADC12 price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to continue to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 23,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw - material supply, import - window changes, and downstream pre - Spring Festival stocking [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased by 4.37% and 4.36% respectively, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 116.59% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81%, and the export of refined tin from Indonesia increased by 186.54%. In December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased slightly by 0.06% [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHEF inventory decreased by 6.38%, and the social inventory decreased by 9.15% [2]. Nickel Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 4.67% and 4.71% respectively, and the futures import loss increased significantly by 4,880.90% [4]. - **Cost**: The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from external - sourced materials increased, while the cost of integrated high - matte nickel production decreased by 3.60% [4]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and the import volume increased by 30.08%. SHFE and social inventories increased [4]. Stainless Steel Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless - steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 4.89% and 3.76% respectively, and the basis between futures and spot prices increased by 213.33% [7]. - **Raw - Material Prices**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.91%, and the price of Inner Mongolia high - carbon ferrochrome increased by 1.23% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 2.50%, and the net export volume increased by 25.31%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.93% [7]. Lithium Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. all increased, with the increase ranging from 2.96% to 7.93% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04%, the demand decreased by 2.50%, and the total inventory decreased by 12.23% [11]. Copper Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper and other copper products decreased slightly, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased significantly [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased by 6.80%, and in November, the import volume decreased by 3.90%. The social inventory and SHFE inventory increased [13]. Zinc Industry - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.16%, and the import loss increased [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of refined zinc decreased by 7.24%, and in November, the export volume increased by 402.59%. The social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 2.59% [17]. Aluminum Industry - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.96%, and the price of alumina in various regions decreased slightly [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of alumina increased by 1.08%, and the production of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.97% and 3.56% respectively. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 6.05% [19]. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various industrial - silicon products remained stable, and the basis decreased [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The national production of industrial silicon decreased by 1.15%, and the production in Xinjiang increased by 6.46%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The export volume increased by 21.78% [20]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased slightly by 0.36% [20]. Polysilicon Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of N - type polysilicon products remained stable, and the main - contract futures price decreased by 1.79% [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon decreased and increased respectively, and the export volume increased significantly [22]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.99%, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased by 6.92% [22]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM aluminum - alloy ADC12 in various regions increased by about 0.85%, and the scrap - to - refined price difference increased [23]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%, and the production of primary aluminum - alloy ingots increased slightly by 0.46%. The开工 rates of various types of aluminum - alloy enterprises decreased [23]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots decreased by 4.40% [23].