广发期货EDP 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2026年1月27日 (20019556) 数据来源:Wind、Mysteel、SMM、彭博、广发期货研究所 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证・在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考， 报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。 欢迎关注微信公众号 【每日精选观点】 品种 合约 观点 层荡偏强 母 ZN2603 震荡偏强 中醇 MA2605 幅弱调整 铁矿石 12605 棕榈洲 P2605 短线偏强 黄金 偏强震荡 AU2604 【全品种日评】 板块 品种 主力合约 点评 操作建议 A股放量伴随波动率上升,市场交易分歧较大,本 IF2603 周面临美联储议息时间节点,宏观影响不确定性高 IH2603 股指 A股波幅上升,风格或有所轮换 。建议做好组合风险控制,适时降低多头仓位,尝 IC2603 试双买做多波动率。 IM2603 供需和风险偏好两大利空有所缓解促进超长债回 暖,不过债市缺乏新的主线驱动,导致短期债市可 能仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are expected to have limited downside in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [2][31]. - Methanol prices are affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand dynamics, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [3]. - Iron ore faces a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are under pressure, with a strategy of shorting at around 800 [3]. - Palm oil may try to break through 9300 yuan, with short - term upward potential [4]. - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks and long - term bullish factors, and long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held [5][14]. - A - share market has increased volatility, and it is recommended to control portfolio risks and reduce long positions [8]. - Treasury bond futures may remain range - bound in the short term, with a strategy of range - bound operation [10]. - Precious metals may maintain a strong and volatile trend, with different strategies for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [13][14]. - Copper prices may be affected by CL premium and inventory, with a strategy of holding long positions lightly [18]. - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with strategies of selling out - of - the - money put options and shorting on rallies [21]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with a strategy of waiting for dips to buy [24]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with an arbitrage strategy of going long AD03 and shorting AL03 [27]. - Tin prices may be volatile in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [35]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a relatively strong range, with a strategy of range - bound operation [37]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with a reference range of 14000 - 15000 [41]. - Lithium carbonate prices may be in a strong - range wide - range oscillation, and short - term operations should be cautious [45]. - Polysilicon prices may be high - level oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Industrial silicon prices may oscillate in the range of 8200 - 9200, and attention should be paid to production cuts [50]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range, and the long - spread of hot - rolled and rebar can be held [51]. - Coking coal prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [58]. - Coke prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [61]. - Ferrosilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5500 - 5900 [63]. - Manganese silicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 [67]. - Meal prices are expected to oscillate, with strong support at the bottom [70]. - Hog prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, with increasing supply pressure [72]. - Corn prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with support and pressure coexisting [74]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [75]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 14500 [77]. - Egg prices are expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the digestion ability of high - price goods [80]. - Oil prices are affected by multiple factors, with different trends for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [81][83][84]. - Red date prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [85]. - Apple prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [86]. - PX prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term [88]. - PTA prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term, and a positive spread strategy for TA5 - 9 [90]. - Short - fiber prices follow raw material fluctuations, with a strategy of shorting the processing margin when it is high [92]. - Bottle - chip prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations, with a strategy of paying attention to support and selling out - of - the - money put options [94]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a near - term weak and long - term strong pattern, with a positive spread strategy for EG5 - 9 and a strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options [95]. - Pure benzene prices have limited driving force due to high inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [97]. - Styrene prices are in a short - term tight supply - demand situation, but the rebound space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [99]. - LLDPE prices are affected by supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see after taking profits on long positions [100]. - PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to hold the PDH profit - expanding position [101]. - Methanol prices are affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [102]. - Caustic soda prices may have limited rebound height, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [105]. - PVC prices may oscillate widely, with a weak fundamental situation [107]. - Urea prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and inventory reduction [110]. - Soda ash prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - Glass prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - Natural rubber prices may have limited upside due to weak demand, with an operating range of 15500 - 16500, and it is recommended to wait and see [117]. - Synthetic rubber prices are short - term strong, with a strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on BR2603 [119][120]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Zinc**: Zinc prices were strong due to a weak US dollar. Mine shortages supported prices, and refined zinc supply pressure eased. Demand improved, and inventories had room for replenishment. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips [2][31]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures were oscillating strongly, with a weakening basis. The market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices were under pressure due to weak supply and demand. It is recommended to short at around 800 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices may try to break through 9300 yuan, with short - term upward potential [4]. - **Gold**: Gold prices were supported by geopolitical risks and long - term bullish factors, and long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held [5]. Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market had increased volatility, and it is recommended to control portfolio risks and reduce long positions [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures may remain range - bound in the short term, with a strategy of range - bound operation [10]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Precious metals may maintain a strong and volatile trend. Gold long positions above the 20 - day moving average can be held; silver can be bought on dips; platinum and palladium can be bought on dips [13][14]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices were affected by CL premium and inventory. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [18]. - **Alumina**: Alumina prices are expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with strategies of selling out - of - the - money put options and shorting on rallies [21]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with a strategy of waiting for dips to buy [24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with an arbitrage strategy of going long AD03 and shorting AL03 [27]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are expected to have limited downside in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [28][31]. - **Tin**: Tin prices may be volatile in the short term, with a long - term strategy of buying on dips [35]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in a relatively strong range, with a strategy of range - bound operation [37]. - **Stainless Steel**: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with a reference range of 14000 - 15000 [41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices may be in a strong - range wide - range oscillation, and short - term operations should be cautious [45]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon prices may be high - level oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon prices may oscillate in the range of 8200 - 9200, and attention should be paid to production cuts [50]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range, and the long - spread of hot - rolled and rebar can be held [51]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore faces a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are under pressure [53]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [58]. - **Coke**: Coke prices may be oscillating and bearish, with a strategy of shorting and an arbitrage strategy of going long coking coal and shorting coke [61]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5500 - 5900 [63]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Manganese silicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 [67]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Meal prices are expected to oscillate, with strong support at the bottom [70]. - **Hog**: Hog prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, with increasing supply pressure [72]. - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with support and pressure coexisting [74]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [75]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 14500 [77]. - **Egg**: Egg prices are expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the digestion ability of high - price goods [80]. - **Oil**: Oil prices are affected by multiple factors, with different trends for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [81][83][84]. - **Red Date**: Red date prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [85]. - **Apple**: Apple prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory [86]. Commodity Futures - Energy Chemicals - **PX**: PX prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term [88]. - **PTA**: PTA prices may be high - level oscillating in the short term, with a strategy of reducing long positions and being bullish in the medium term, and a positive spread strategy for TA5 - 9 [90]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber prices follow raw material fluctuations, with a strategy of shorting the processing margin when it is high [92]. - **Bottle - chip**: Bottle - chip prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations, with a strategy of paying attention to support and selling out - of - the - money put options [94]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol prices have a near - term weak and long - term strong pattern, with a positive spread strategy for EG5 - 9 and a strategy of selling out - of - the money put options [95]. - **Pure Benzene**: Pure benzene prices have limited driving force due to high inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [97]. - **Styrene**: Styrene prices are in a short - term tight supply - demand situation, but the rebound space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see and short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [99]. - **LLDPE**: LLDPE prices are affected by supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see after taking profits on long positions [100]. - **PP**: PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to hold the PDH profit - expanding position [101]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors, and long positions should be closed opportunistically [102]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda prices may have limited rebound height, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [105]. - **PVC**: PVC prices may oscillate widely, with a weak fundamental situation [107]. - **Urea**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and inventory reduction [110]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - **Glass**: Glass prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [114]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber prices may have limited upside due to weak demand, with an operating range of 15500 - 16500, and it is recommended to wait and see [117]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber prices are short - term strong, with a strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on BR2603 [119][120].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - The report presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of various stock index futures spreads, including spot - futures spreads and inter - period spreads, as well as cross - variety ratios [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - It shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and historical quantiles of various treasury bond futures spreads, such as basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads [2]. 2.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - In the short term, the precious metals market will maintain a relatively strong shock. Gold's upward momentum above the 20 - day moving average is increasing, and long positions should be held. Silver's short - term price is strong but volatile, and risk control measures should be focused on. Platinum and palladium prices are rising due to macro - financial attributes and tight supply, and a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [4]. 2.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - The settlement price indices of container shipping, including SCFIS for European and US - West routes, and Shanghai Export Container Freight Index, have declined. The prices of container shipping futures contracts have generally increased, and the basis of the main contract has decreased. The global container shipping capacity supply has slightly increased, and some overseas economic indicators have shown different changes [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: IF spot - futures spread is 12.44, up 5.73 from the previous day; IC is 32.90% (with a - 36.69 change); IM is 22.70% (with a - 76.23 change) [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, IF's next - month minus current - month spread is 5.60, up 0.40 from the previous day [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: IC/IF is 1.7947, down 0.0439 from the previous day; IC/IH is 2.7696, down 0.0806 [1]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.3290, up 0.0141 from the previous trading day; TF is 1.3355, up 0.0144; T is 1.3663, up 0.0117 [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, TS's current - quarter minus next - quarter spread is - 0.0240, up 0.0080 from the previous trading day [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: TS - TF is 0.0040, with a - 3.4580 change on 2026 - 01 - 26 [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: AU2604 contract is 1143.32 yuan/g, up 27.68 yuan or 2.48% from January 23; AG2604 contract is 27207 yuan/kg, up 2242 yuan or 8.98% [4]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: COMEX gold main contract is 5004.80, up 21.70 or 0.44% from January 23; COMEX silver main contract is 103.89, up 0.63 or 0.61% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold is 5009.88, up 28.57 or 0.57%; London silver is 103.87, up 0.53 or 0.52% [4]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is 0.94, up 6.23 from the previous value; silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract has a basis change not fully presented [4]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver is 48.17, down 0.08 or - 0.17%; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver is 42.02, down 2.67 or - 5.96% [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.22%, down 0.02 or - 0.5%; US dollar index is 97.05, down 0.45 or - 0.47% [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 103029, up 1020 or 1.00%; COMEX gold inventory is 35941502, down 202778 or - 0.56% [4]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Container Shipping Indices**: SCFIS (European route) is 1859.31 points, down 94.9 points or - 4.86% from January 19; SCFI composite index is 1457.86 points, down 116.3 points or - 7.39% from January 16 [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 is 1726.7 points, up 9.0 points or 0.52% from January 23; the basis of the main contract (EC2604) is 659.1, down 61.9 or - 8.59% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3374.68 million TEU, up 1.74 million TEU or 0.05% from January 25; Shanghai port on - time rate is 41.81%, up 1.81 percentage points or 4.53% from November [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot market is firm, with some specifications in short supply and rising prices in Jiangsu due to low inventory. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected decrease in later shipments. However, the weak demand limits the upside potential. The log futures valuation was slightly repaired and rebounded last week. Considering the heavy rainfall in the North Island of New Zealand that may affect log shipments, it is advisable to participate in long positions on dips in the range of 750 - 800 in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On January 26th, compared with January 23rd, the prices of log 2601 and log 2603 remained unchanged; log 2605 decreased by 5.5 to 783, a decline of 0.70%; log 2607 decreased by 4.0 to 795, a decline of 0.50%. The basis of the main contract remained unchanged at -36.0 [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs at Rizhao Port, Taicang Port, and Rizhao Port's spruce 11.8 remained unchanged from January 23rd to January 26th. The latest foreign quotation for medium A radiata pine of 4 - meter length was 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, and for 11.8 - meter spruce was 124 euros per JAS cubic meter, both unchanged [2] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on January 27th was 6.948, a slight decrease from 6.950 on January 26th, with a change of 0%. The import theoretical cost was 752.82 yuan, a decrease of 0.18 yuan from the previous day, also with a change of 0% [2] Supply: Monthly - In December compared with November, the port shipping volume was 204.0 million cubic meters, an increase of 14.8 million cubic meters or 7.82%. The number of departing ships was 55.0, an increase of 6.0 or 12.24% [2] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 23rd, compared with January 16th, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 249 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8 million cubic meters or 3.11%. In Shandong, the inventory was 188.80 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.2 million cubic meters or 1.67%. In Jiangsu, the inventory was 32.97 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.1 million cubic meters or 19.75% [2][3] Demand: (Weekly) - As of January 23rd, compared with January 16th, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 6.18 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.02 million cubic meters. In Shandong, it was 0.37 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.24 million cubic meters or 11%. In Jiangsu, it was 1.94 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.34 million cubic meters or 15% [3] Forecast of Arriving Ships - From January 26th to February 1st, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 7, a decrease of 1 from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 13%. The total arrival volume was about 21.9 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.7 million cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 11% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the price data, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles, for various commodities across multiple sectors such as metals, precious metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals on January 27, 2026. It offers a snapshot of the market conditions and price relationships for these commodities [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Ferroalloys**: The price of 72 - grade silicon - iron qualified blocks (SF603) increased by 2.09% to 5678, with a basis of 122 and a basis rate of 2.09%. The price of 6517 - grade silicon - manganese (SM603) had a basis rate of 49.30% [1]. - **Steel Products**: HRB400 20mm rebar (RB2605) decreased by 0.36% to 3143, and Q235B 4.75mm hot - rolled coil (HC2605) had a price of 3290. Iron ore (I2605) increased by 8.38% to 850 [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper (CU2603) had a spot price of 101880 with a historical quantile of 91.04%, and a basis of - 230. Aluminum (AL2603) decreased to 24030. Zinc (ZN2603), tin (SN2603), nickel (NISEOS), and stainless steel (SS2603) also had corresponding price and basis data [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Lithium**: Industrial silicon (SIS605) increased by 19.07% to 9250, and battery - grade lithium carbonate (LC2605) had a price of 15820 with a historical quantile of 99.77% [1]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU2604) had a spot price of 1143.3 and a historical quantile of 98.90%, and silver (AG2604) had a spot price of 27513.0 [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2605) had a spot price of 3080, with a basis of 311 and a basis rate of 4.79%. Other agricultural products like soybean oil (y2605), palm oil (P2605), rapeseed meal (RM605), etc., also had their price and basis information presented [1]. Energy Chemicals - PX (PX603) had a spot price of 7522.0 and a futures price of 7458.0. PTA (TA605), MEG (EG2605), and other energy - chemical products had corresponding price and basis details [1]. Financial Futures - Stock index futures such as IF2603.CFF, IH2603.CFE, IC2603.CFE, and IM2603.CFE, as well as bond futures including 2 - year (TS2603), 5 - year (TF2603), 10 - year (T2603), and 30 - year (TL2603) bonds, had price, basis, and historical quantile data [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Group 2: Core Views - The future market may be more affected by US economic data's impact on Fed policy expectations and geopolitical disruptions. In the short - term, the precious metals market will maintain a strong oscillation, with gold's upward momentum increasing above the 20 - day moving average, and long positions should continue to be held [1] - Driven by factors such as capital sentiment, the short - term silver price trend is strong and hard to predict the peak, but the market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to pay attention to risk control measures of exchanges, maintain the idea of buying on dips with light positions and lock in profits in a timely manner [1] - Platinum and palladium, supported by macro - financial attributes and a tight supply pattern, form a linkage with the rising trend of gold, and their price centers continue to rise. Given the current RMB appreciation, the overseas market prices perform stronger than the domestic ones, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - The AU2604 contract rose 27.68 yuan/g to 1143.32 yuan/g, a 2.48% increase from January 23rd to January 26th - The AG2604 contract rose 2242 yuan/ten grams to 27207 yuan/ten grams, an 8.98% increase - The PT2606 contract rose 58.80 yuan/g to 744.70 yuan/g, an 8.57% increase - The PD2606 contract rose 36.85 yuan/g to 534.80 yuan/g, a 7.40% increase [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - The COMEX gold主力 contract rose 21.70 to 5004.80, a 0.44% increase - The COMEX silver主力 contract rose 0.63 to 103.89, a 0.61% increase - The NYMEX platinum主力 contract fell 197.60 to 2575.60 dollars/ounce, a 7.13% decrease - The NYMEX palladium主力 contract fell 54.50 to 1992.50, a 2.66% decrease [1] Spot Prices - London gold rose 28.57 to 5009.88, a 0.57% increase - London silver rose 0.53 to 103.87, a 0.52% increase - Platinum rose 106.00 to 2811.00 dollars/ounce, a 3.92% increase - Palladium rose 116.00 to 2092.00, a 5.87% increase - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D rose 33.91 yuan/g to 1144.26 yuan/g, a 3.05% increase - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D rose 2525 yuan/ten grams to 27513 yuan/ten grams, a 10.10% increase - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 rose 52 yuan/g to 733 yuan/g, a 7.59% increase [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 increased 6.23 to 0.94, at the 46.10% quantile of the past year - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 increased 283 to 306, at the 60.60% quantile of the past year - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold increased 6.87 to 5.08, at the 99.60% quantile of the past year - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver decreased 0.10 to - 0.02, at the 69.00% quantile of the past year [1] Price Ratios - The COMEX gold/silver ratio fell 0.08 to 48.17, a 0.17% decrease - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio fell 2.67 to 42.02, a 5.96% decrease - The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio fell 0.06 to 1.29, a 4.58% decrease - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio rose 0.02 to 1.39, a 1.09% increase [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.02 to 4.22, a 0.5% decrease - The 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.04 to 3.56, a 1.1% decrease - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield fell 0.02 to 1.90, a 1.0% decrease - The US dollar index fell 0.45 to 97.05, a 0.47% decrease - The on - shore RMB exchange rate rose 0.0006 to 6.9492, a 0.01% increase [1] Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory rose 1020 to 103050 ten grams, a 1.00% increase - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory fell 7280 to 573810, a 1.25% decrease - The COMEX gold inventory fell 202778 to 35941502, a 0.56% decrease - The COMEX silver inventory fell 1183026 to 415241837, a 0.28% decrease - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts fell 386 to 18845680, a 0.00% decrease - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 114262775 - The SPDR gold ETF position remained unchanged at 1087 - The SLV silver ETF position fell 115.58 to 15974, a 0.72% decrease [1]

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓大幅上升 | 中信国君大幅加仓超 4000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓明显上升 | 中信多头加仓超 2000 手 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 中信多头加仓 3000 手以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 国君空头加仓超 1000 手 | 2026 年 1 月 27 日星期二 证监许可【2011】1292 号 联系信息： 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020-88818051 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 18, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided reports do not mention industry investment ratings. 2. Report Core Views 2.1 Futures Index Spread Report - Provides data on futures index spreads including price differences between current and futures prices, and across different contract months for various stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM on January 27, 2026, along with historical percentile data [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread Report - Presents data on treasury bond futures spreads including basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL on January 27, 2026, and their historical percentile rankings since listing [2]. 2.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Report - Short - term precious metals market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. Gold is showing increased upward momentum above the 20 - day moving average, and long positions should be held. Silver is driven by factors like capital sentiment, with a strong but volatile short - term trend. Platinum and palladium prices are rising due to macro - financial factors and supply constraints, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [4]. 2.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Report - On January 26, 2026, the container shipping index showed declines in some routes. Futures prices of related contracts increased, and the basis of the main contract decreased. Fundamental data indicates a slight increase in global container shipping capacity supply, and some overseas economic indicators showed different trends [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Index Spread Report - **Price Differences**: IF current - futures spread is 12.44, up 5.73 from the previous day; IH is 8.61, up 3.01; IC is 32.90% (with a decrease of 36.69); IM is 22.70% (with a decrease of 76.23). For cross - period spreads, differences vary among different contract months [1]. - **Percentiles**: Historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles are provided for each spread, showing the relative position of the current spread value in historical data [1]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread Report - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.3290 on January 26, 2026, up 0.0141; TF is 1.3355, up 0.0144; T is 1.3663, up 0.0117; TL is 0.2730 [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads (e.g., current - season to next - season, current - season to next - next - season) for each type of treasury bond futures are presented, along with their changes and historical percentiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different types of treasury bond futures (e.g., TS - TF, TS - T, TF - T) are given, with their values, changes, and historical percentiles [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Report - **Domestic Futures**: On January 26, 2026, AU2604 rose 27.68 (2.48%); AG2604 rose 2242 (8.98%); PT2606 rose 58.80 (8.57%); PD2606 rose 36.85 (7.40%) [4]. - **Foreign Futures**: COMEX gold rose 21.70 (0.44%); COMEX silver rose 0.63 (0.61%); NYMEX platinum fell 197.60 (-7.13%); NYMEX palladium fell 54.50 (-2.66%) [4]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold rose 28.57 (0.57%); London silver rose 0.53 (0.52%); spot palladium and other spot prices also had different changes [4]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is 0.94, up 6.23; silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis and other basis data are provided, along with historical 1 - year percentiles [4]. - **Ratio**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver, SHFE gold/silver, NYMEX platinum/palladium, and GFE platinum/palladium are presented, with their changes [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.02 (-0.5%); 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.04 (-1.1%); 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield fell 0.02 (-1.0%); US dollar index fell 0.45 (-0.47%); offshore RMB exchange rate rose 0.0006 (0.01%) [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Changes in inventory and positions of precious metals in domestic and foreign exchanges and ETFs are reported [4]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Report - **Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route) fell 94.9 (-4.86%); SCFIS (US - West route) fell 11.0 (-0.84%); SCFI composite index fell 116.3 (-7.39%); SCFI (European), SCFI (US - West), and SCFI (US - East) also declined [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of contracts such as EC2602, EC2604 (main contract), etc., increased. The basis of the main contract decreased by 61.9 (-8.59%) [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply increased by 1.74 (0.05%); Shanghai port on - time rate increased by 1.81 (4.53%); Shanghai port berthing increased by 9.00 (2.61%); monthly export amount increased by 275.84 (8.35%); some overseas economic indicators had different changes [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices remained stable. The night - trading prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils closed at 3144 yuan and 3304 yuan respectively. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar widened, and the rebar futures strengthened. The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Rebar demand declined seasonally, with a significant increase in inventory, while hot - rolled coil demand declined slightly and inventory continued to decrease. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a range - bound trend. The reference range for the May rebar contract is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3200 - 3350 yuan. The strategy of long hot - rolled coil and short rebar can be continued [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The main iron ore contract oscillated weakly, and the position decreased. The supply side saw a slight increase in global shipments, but the shipment center decreased marginally and was still at a relatively high level compared to the historical average. The demand side showed that the previous period's molten iron production was flat, and the port clearance volume decreased seasonally, indicating that the resumption of molten iron production before the Spring Festival was limited. The inventory at ports continued to increase, and the increase in steel mill inventory slowed down. Iron ore is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices are under pressure. Be vigilant about macro - level disturbances [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures oscillated. After the fourth round of price cuts on January 1st, the coke market was temporarily stable. The supply side had pressure on coking profits, and the start - up rate decreased slightly. The demand side saw a slight increase in molten iron production after the New Year, and steel prices rebounded from a low level. The inventory at ports and steel mills increased, while the coking plant inventory decreased. It is expected that the proposed price increase of coke can be implemented, but the market will be loose again after the Spring Festival. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800 yuan. - Coking coal futures oscillated. The supply side saw an increase in daily coal production, and the import volume increased after the New Year. The demand side had limited downstream restocking demand before the Spring Festival due to factors such as steel mill losses and safety accidents. The inventory of coal mines, coking enterprises, and steel mills increased. The price is expected to be range - bound and bearish, with a reference range of 1000 - 1200 yuan. The strategy of long coking coal and short coke is recommended [6]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry - Silicon iron futures oscillated weakly. The supply side had stable production, with most regions' production remaining flat compared to the previous week, and only Gansu seeing a slight decline. The demand side had less - than - expected resumption of molten iron production, and the profitability of steel mills declined. The inventory in factories remained high, and the overall non - steel demand weakened. The cost side had a downward expectation of the settlement electricity price in Inner Mongolia. It is expected that the price will be range - bound, with a reference range of 5500 - 5900 yuan. - Silicon manganese futures oscillated weakly. The supply side had stable supply, with new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and some factories having shutdown and maintenance plans at the end of the month. The demand side also had less - than - expected resumption of molten iron production, and the profitability of steel mills declined. The inventory was at a relatively high level, and the manganese ore price was supported. It is expected that the price will be range - bound, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan to 3280 yuan, and the 05 contract price increased by 19 yuan to 3143 yuan. The hot - rolled coil 05 contract price increased by 15 yuan to 3302 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price increased by 10 yuan to 2950 yuan, and the plate billet price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 24 yuan to 36 yuan, while the profit of rebar in North China increased by 24 yuan but was still at - 84 yuan [1]. Supply - The daily average molten iron production decreased slightly by 0.1 to 228.1, and the output of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.4 to 819.6. The rebar output increased by 9.3 to 199.6, with a growth rate of 4.9%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.9 to 305.4, with a decline rate of 1.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 10.1 to 1257.1, with a growth rate of 0.8%. The rebar inventory increased by 14.0 to 452.1, with a growth rate of 3.2%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.6 to 357.8, with a decline rate of 1.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume decreased by 0.2 to 7.6, with a decline rate of 2.4%. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 16.6 to 809.5, with a decline rate of 2.0%. The apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 4.8 to 185.5, with a decline rate of 2.5%, and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.2 to 310.0, with a decline rate of 1.3% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc. decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 9.8 to 845.7, with a decline rate of 1.1%. The 05 - contract basis of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread also changed [3]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 129.7 to 2530.0, with a decline rate of 4.9%. The global shipment volume increased by 48.4 to 2978.3, with a growth rate of 1.7%. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 to 11964.7, with a growth rate of 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 228.1. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased by 9.2 to 310.7, with a decline rate of 2.9%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 162.1 to 6072.2, with a decline rate of 2.6%, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 169.4 to 6817.7, with a decline rate of 2.4% [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 211.4 to 16766.53, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.6 to 9388.8, with a growth rate of 1.4%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 23.0, with a growth rate of 9.5% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) and other coke products remained unchanged or changed slightly. The coke 05 contract price decreased by 3 to 1160, with a decline rate of 0.2% [6]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increased by 9 to 1207, with a growth rate of 0.8%. The coking coal 05 contract price increased by 3 to 1160, with a growth rate of 0.2% [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 to 63.3, with a decline rate of 0.2%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 to 46.9, with a growth rate of 0.4% [6]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 228.1 [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 18.9 to 939.2, with a growth rate of 2.1%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 44.9 to 1177.7, with a growth rate of 4.0% [6]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions remained stable. The silicon iron 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia remained at 5330 yuan, and the silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia remained at 5680 yuan [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia remained at 5867.8 yuan, and the production profit increased by 18 to - 104. The production cost of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 18 to 5434.0, and the production profit increased by 18 to - 115 [7]. Supply - The weekly output of silicon iron remained at 19.3, and the weekly output of silicon manganese was relatively stable. The manganese ore shipment volume increased by 5.2 to 77.7, with a growth rate of 7.2% [7]. Demand - The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese calculated by Steel Union showed slight changes. The demand for silicon iron was 0.0, and the demand for silicon manganese increased by 0.1 to 11.6 [7]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises increased by 0.3 to 6.7, with a growth rate of 5.4%. The inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises remained at 37.3 [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are strong due to capital rotation into the chemical sector and geopolitical tensions. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventories are being depleted. PP supply pressure is relieved due to many maintenance activities, while PE faces pressure from reduced maintenance and import expectations [1]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, but the basis is weakening, and trading volume is average. The methanol market has weak supply and demand, and the rebound space is restricted by high production. The port inventory is slightly depleted, but MTO demand is weak, suppressing price rebounds [4]. Natural Rubber - In the short - term, the natural rubber market has a strong sentiment to rise due to the strong performance of the synthetic rubber market. However, considering the weak demand, the upside is expected to be limited, with an operating range of 15,500 - 16,500 [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The marginal supply - demand of pure benzene is slightly improving, but the port inventory is unexpectedly increasing, limiting its self - driving force. Styrene has strong short - term performance due to export - driven inventory reduction, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene is expected to compress [10]. Urea - Urea futures are rising, and the spot market is mixed. The supply is sufficient, while the demand is weak, lacking effective support for price increases. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, with the main contract focusing on the 1760 - 1800 range [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures are slightly rebounding, but the spot price is declining. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the upside of futures is expected to be limited. PVC futures are rising, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the upside is also expected to be restricted [13]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash futures are oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. Glass futures are also oscillating, with weak supply - demand during the pre - holiday off - season. Both need to be vigilant against potential price drops [14]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are mainly influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and the US cold wave. Although the cold wave's impact is weakening, geopolitical premiums still support oil prices [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX and PTA supply - demand are weakening before the Spring Festival, but have strong support in the second quarter. Ethylene glycol's supply - demand is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. Short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Polyester bottle - chip's supply is decreasing, and the price and processing fee will follow the cost [18]. LPG - LPG prices are rising. The upstream refinery operating rate is increasing, while the downstream PDH operating rate is decreasing. The inventory situation is mixed, with the refinery inventory ratio increasing and the port inventory decreasing [19]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins Price Changes - L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 closing prices all increased, with PP2609 rising 1.35% [1]. - Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also rose [1]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, with PP enterprise inventory dropping 7.85% [1]. - PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, while downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 3.42% [1]. Methanol Price Changes - MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices increased, and the basis weakened [4]. - Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang all rose [4]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.78%, while port inventory increased by 1.55% [4]. - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.64%, and downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 1.56% [4]. Natural Rubber Price Changes - Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices decreased slightly [7]. Production and Operating Rates - November production in some countries decreased, while December domestic tire production and export increased [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 2.94%, while factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 2.49% [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Price Changes - Upstream crude oil and some raw material prices changed slightly, and styrene and pure benzene prices also had minor fluctuations [10]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain changed [10]. Urea Price Changes - Futures prices rose, and the spot market was mixed [12]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production increased by 2.64%, and the demand was weak [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda Price Changes - Caustic soda spot prices declined, and PVC spot and futures prices increased [13]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda supply - demand imbalance persisted, and PVC supply was high with weak demand [13]. Glass - Soda Ash Price Changes - Glass and soda ash futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices were stable [14]. Supply and Demand - Soda ash production was high, and glass production and sales were average during the pre - holiday off - season [14]. Crude Oil Price Changes - Brent and WTI prices decreased slightly, while SC increased by 2.62% [15]. Influencing Factors - Oil prices were affected by geopolitical tensions and the US cold wave [15]. Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry chain changed to varying degrees [18]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain decreased [18]. LPG Price Changes - LPG futures prices increased, and the basis weakened [19]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery inventory ratio increased, and port inventory decreased. The upstream operating rate increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased [19].