Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. It mainly shows the price, basis, basis rate, and historical quantile data of various futures and spot commodities. 3. Summary by Categories Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF509) spot price is 5628, futures price is 5494, basis is 134, basis rate is 2.44%, and historical quantile is 74.10% [1] - Silicon manganese (SM509) spot price is 5870, futures price is 5784, basis rate is 1.49%, and historical quantile is 41.00% [1] - Rebar (RB2510) spot price is 3200, futures price is 3114, basis rate is 2.76%, and historical quantile is 45.20% [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510) spot price is 3280, futures price is 3259, basis rate is 0.64%, and historical quantile is 26.10% [1] - Iron ore (I2509) spot price is 804, futures price is 761, basis rate is 4.83%, and historical quantile is 32.20% [1] - Coke (J2509) spot price is 1392, futures price is 1270, basis is - 122, basis rate is - 8.05%, and historical quantile is 25.07% [1] - Coking coal (JM2509) spot price is 920, futures price is 912, basis rate is 0.93%, and historical quantile is 17.40% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2508) spot price is 78090, futures price is 77995, basis is - 95, basis rate is - 0.12%, and historical quantile is 32.70% [1] - Aluminum (AL2508) spot price is 20510, futures price is 20430, basis is 80, basis rate is 0.39%, and historical quantile is 70.83% [1] - Alumina (AO2509) spot price is 3171, futures price is 3165, basis is 6, basis rate is 0.18%, and historical quantile is 34.80% [1] - Zinc (ZN2508) spot price is 22080, futures price is 22085, basis is - 5, basis rate is - 0.02%, and historical quantile is 46.25% [1] - Tin (SN2508) spot price is 263240, futures price is 264600, basis is - 1360, basis rate is 0.52%, and historical quantile is 81.45% [1] - Nickel (NI2508) spot price is 119750, futures price is 119380, basis is 370, basis rate is 0.31%, and historical quantile is 72.70% [1] - Stainless steel (SS2509) spot price is 12920, futures price is 12695, basis is 225, basis rate is 1.77%, and historical quantile is 51.71% [1] Energy and Chemicals - PX (PX509) spot price is 6881, futures price is 6688, basis is 193, basis rate is 2.89%, and historical quantile is 77.30% [1] - PTA (TA509) spot price is 4700, futures price is 4696, basis is 4, basis rate is 0.09%, and historical quantile is 52.60% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2509) spot price is 4420, futures price is 4322, basis is 98, basis rate is 2.27%, and historical quantile is 90.10% [1] - Polyester staple fiber (PF509) spot price is 6655, futures price is 6368, basis is 287, basis rate is 4.51%, and historical quantile is 90.50% [1] - Styrene (EB2508) spot price is 7715, futures price is 7340, basis is 375, basis rate is 5.11%, and historical quantile is 82.70% [1] - Methanol (MA509) spot price is 2392.5, futures price is 2386, basis is 6.5, basis rate is 0.27%, and historical quantile is 44.10% [1] - Urea (UR509) spot price is 1810, futures price is 1731, basis is 79, basis rate is 4.56%, and historical quantile is 36.90% [1] - LLDPE (L2509) spot price is 7230, futures price is 7221, basis is 9, basis rate is 0.12%, and historical quantile is 21.90% [1] - PP (PP2509) spot price is 7093, futures price is 7015, basis is 78, basis rate is 1.11%, and historical quantile is 43.00% [1] - PVC (V2509) spot price is 4850, futures price is 4975, basis is - 125, basis rate is - 2.51%, and historical quantile is 44.00% [1] - Caustic soda (SH209) spot price is 2625, futures price is 2512, basis is 113, basis rate is 4.50%, and historical quantile is 68.00% [1] - LPG (PG2508) spot price is 4598, futures price is 4111, basis is 487, basis rate is 11.85%, and historical quantile is 65.90% [1] - Asphalt (BU2509) spot price is 3810, futures price is 3617, basis is 193, basis rate is 5.34%, and historical quantile is 82.00% [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2508) spot price is 11700, futures price is 11535, basis is 165, basis rate is 1.43%, and historical quantile is 45.00% [1] - Glass (FG509) spot price is 1088, futures price is 1071, basis is 17, basis rate is 1.56%, and historical quantile is 68.06% [1] - Soda ash (SA509) spot price is 1204, futures price is 1214, basis is - 10, basis rate is - 0.83%, and historical quantile is 26.68% [1] - Natural rubber (RU2509) spot price is 14350, futures price is 14395, basis is - 45, basis rate is - 0.31% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2509) spot price is 2978, futures price is 2820, basis is - 158, basis rate is - 5.31%, and historical quantile is 9.80% [1] - Soybean oil (Y2509) spot price is 8130, futures price is 8012, basis is 118, basis rate is 1.47%, and historical quantile is 17.90% [1] - Palm oil (P2509) spot price is 8740, futures price is 8708, basis is 32, basis rate is 0.37%, and historical quantile is 20.10% [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM509) spot price is 2655, futures price is 2550, basis is - 105, basis rate is - 3.95%, and historical quantile is 19.20% [1] - Rapeseed oil (O1509) spot price is 9530, futures price is 9404, basis is 126, basis rate is 1.34%, and historical quantile is 48.20% [1] - Corn (C2509) spot price is 2350, futures price is 2295, basis is 55, basis rate is 2.40%, and historical quantile is 72.80% [1] - Corn starch (CS2509) spot price is 2740, futures price is 2641, basis is 99, basis rate is 3.75%, and historical quantile is 45.30% [1] - Live pigs (LH2509) spot price is 14700, futures price is 14250, basis is 450, basis rate is 3.16%, and historical quantile is 49.80% [1] - Eggs (JD2509) spot price is 3615, futures price is 2640, basis is - 975, basis rate is - 26.97%, and historical quantile is 92.80% [1] - Cotton (CF509) spot price is 15286, futures price is 13850, basis is 1436, basis rate is 10.37%, and historical quantile is 92.80% [1] - Sugar (SR509) spot price is 6130, futures price is 5802, basis is 328, basis rate is 5.65%, and historical quantile is 61.40% [1] - Apples (AP510) spot price is 8600, futures price is 7862, basis is 738, basis rate is 9.39%, and historical quantile is 59.20% [1] - Jujubes (CJ601) spot price is 10280, futures price is 8300, basis is - 1980, basis rate is - 19.26%, and historical quantile is 15.60% [1] Financial Futures - IF2509.CFF spot price is 4019.1, futures price is 3980.6, basis is - 38.5, basis rate is - 0.97%, and historical quantile is 8.00% [1] - IH2509.CFE spot price is 2747.2, futures price is 2734.2, basis is - 13, basis rate is - 0.48%, and historical quantile is 16.30% [1] - IC2507.CFE spot price is 6018.8, futures price is 6008.2, basis is - 10.6, basis rate is - 0.18%, and historical quantile is 68.30% [1] - IM2509.CFE spot price is 6442.8, futures price is 6277.4, basis is - 165.4, basis rate is - 2.64%, and historical quantile is 5.90% [1] - 2 - year bond (T2509) spot price is 102.41, futures price is 100.32, basis is 2.09, basis rate is 2.08%, and historical quantile is 24.50% [1] - 5 - year bond (TF2509) spot price is 106.02, futures price is 100.96, basis is 5.06, basis rate is 5.01%, and historical quantile is 29.00% [1] - 10 - year bond (T2509) spot price is 108.89, futures price is 107.50, basis is 1.39, basis rate is 1.29%, and historical quantile is 38.10% [1] - 30 - year bond (TL2509) spot price is 136.49, futures price is 120.77, basis is 15.72, basis rate is 13.02%, and historical quantile is 35.80% [1]

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. It details the changes in total positions, positions of the main contracts, and the significant changes in the top 20 seats for each type of futures on July 15, 2025 [1][5][12][18][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 15, the total position of the IF variety increased by 3,863 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 2,640 lots [5]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats, CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,950 lots, while Guotou Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 752 lots. Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 47,614 lots [6]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats, Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,693 lots, while Guotou Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 1,355 lots. CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 51,919 lots [8]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 15, the total position of the IH variety increased by 1,424 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 1,546 lots [12]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats, Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,360 lots, while CITIC Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 502 lots. Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 13,206 lots [13]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats, CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 880 lots, while Baocheng Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 407 lots. CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 17,190 lots [14]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 15, the total position of the IC variety increased by 3,901 lots, while the position of the main contract 2507 decreased by 5,099 lots [18]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats, Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,222 lots, while Dongzheng Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 482 lots. CITIC Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 36,494 lots [18]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats, Haitong Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,210 lots, while Dongzheng Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 473 lots. CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 44,182 lots [19]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 15, the total position of the IM variety increased by 18,183 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 13,659 lots [23]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats, CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 5,142 lots, while GF Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 900 lots. Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total long - position of 44,584 lots [24]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats, CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 4,962 lots, while Yong'an Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 229 lots. CITIC Futures ranked first with a total short - position of 67,026 lots [26].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non-US regions shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weakening actual demand", and the spot contradiction is gradually resolved. The copper price may return to macro trading in the next stage, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt the copper price. The main contract should focus on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported by supply tightness expectations, but the high - capacity operation and market surplus situation remain. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 2,950 - 3,250 this week. For aluminum, the current price is high, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, the price of the main contract is expected to face pressure in the short term, with a reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 this week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The subsequent weak demand will continue to suppress price increases. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract operating between 19,400 - 20,200 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to remain loose, but the increase in domestic mine production in June fell short of expectations, providing price support. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, while the demand has weakened marginally. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is maintained, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support for refined nickel has loosened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, restricting the upside of prices. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. In the short term, the macro situation is volatile. It is recommended to hold existing short positions from previous highs and pay attention to US tariff changes [14]. Stainless Steel - There are macro uncertainties, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The low - level ferronickel price weakens cost support, the supply - side production cuts fall short of expectations, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals still face pressure, and the surplus may increase. The disk is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The short - term disk is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract reference range of 63,000 - 68,000, but there is still downward pressure in the medium term [20]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped to 78,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 116.4 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum dropped to 20,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 70 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 20,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped to 22,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11%. The import profit and loss improved by 200.42 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel dropped to 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin dropped to 266,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The import profit and loss decreased by 605.76 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased to 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39%. The spot - futures price difference increased by 45 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased to 64,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41%. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) decreased by 1,300 yuan/ton [20]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30%. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22%. In May, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 250,500 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30%. In May, the un - wrought aluminum alloy ingot import volume was 97,000 tons, an increase of 11.75% [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50%. In May, the refined zinc import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% [8]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% [11]. - **Tin**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April (43 companies), the 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83%. In May, the stainless steel import volume was 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34%. The lithium carbonate demand was 93,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15%. In May, the lithium carbonate import volume was 21,146 tons, a decrease of 25.37% [20]. Spread - **Copper**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 90 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 70 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton [11]. - **Tin**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 340 yuan/ton, and the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 150 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2508 - 2509 spread remained unchanged, and the 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 120 yuan/ton [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel industry, on July 15, 2025, the steel market showed a relatively strong trend. The weekly data indicated that the apparent demand was in a seasonal decline, production followed the decline in demand, and inventory remained stable. In the second half of the year, demand is likely to decline, and the supply remains abundant, lacking strong price - driving forces. Currently, the low inventory and improved market sentiment support valuation - repair trading, but the actual demand has limited upward potential. The next macro - observation window is the Politburo meeting at the end of July. For operation, observe whether the current prices of rebar at 3100 and hot - rolled coils at 3300 can be effectively broken through, and if so, focus on the next pressure levels of 3220 (rebar) and 3350 (hot - rolled coils) [1]. - For the iron ore industry, on July 14, 2025, the iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. The demand side was affected by steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions, with molten iron production declining from its peak. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and short - term molten iron shows resilience. In the future, molten iron production in July is expected to continue to decline, and steel mill profits will improve. Short - term iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips for the iron ore 2509 contract and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [4]. - For the coke industry, on July 14, 2025, the coke futures oscillated strongly, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward trend. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, a phased bottom was formed, and market expectations improved. Mainstream coking enterprises plan to initiate the first - round price increase, which is expected to be implemented later. The supply side may face difficulties in increasing production due to enterprise losses, and the demand side is affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, with molten iron production reaching a peak and starting to decline. The inventory is at a medium level, and downstream steel mills' active restocking demand is beneficial for future price increases. It is recommended to conduct hedging for the coke 2601 contract on rallies, buy on dips for the coke 2509 contract, and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [6]. - For the coking coal industry, on July 14, 2025, the coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The domestic coking coal auction market recovered, and the overall coal mine production recovered slowly, remaining in short supply. Imported coal showed different trends, with Mongolian coal prices rebounding slightly and seaborne coal prices rising. The demand side saw a slight decline in coking and blast furnace operations, but the downstream restocking intensity increased. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to buy on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3210, 3190, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3176, 3138, and 3170 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 4, 5, and 9 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300, 3200, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The prices of hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3287, 3276, and 3288 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 6, 3, and 8 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar was 3333 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3058 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan [1]. - The profits of East China, North China, and South China rebar were 160, 130, and 270 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 27, 1, and 47 yuan. The profits of East China, North China, and South China hot - rolled coils were 240, 150, and 230 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 17, 17, and 7 yuan [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons (- 0.5%) compared to the previous value. The production of five major steel products was 872.7 tons, a decrease of 12.4 tons (- 1.4%) [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products was 1339.6 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons (0.0%); the rebar inventory was 540.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons (- 0.9%); the hot - rolled coil inventory was 345.6 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons (0.2%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume was 10.6 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons (5.0%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 873.1 tons, a decrease of 12.2 tons (- 1.4%); the apparent demand for rebar was 221.5 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons (- 1.5%); the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 322.5 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons (- 0.6%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 768.2, 794.2, 804.0, and 801.5 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 2.2 yuan/ton. The 09 - contract basis of these four types of iron ore decreased significantly, with decreases of - 47.3 yuan/ton [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread was - 49.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton (- 4.3%); the 9 - 1 spread was 30.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton (9.1%); the 1 - 5 spread was 19.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.6%) [4]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2662.1 tons, an increase of 178.2 tons (7.2%); the global weekly shipment volume was 2987.1 tons, a decrease of 7.8 tons (- 0.3%); the national monthly import volume was 9813 tons, a decrease of 500.3 tons (- 4.9%) [4]. - The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons (- 0.4%); the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 319.5 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons (0.1%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 56.8 tons (- 0.4%) compared to Monday of the previous week; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8979.6 tons, an increase of 61.1 tons (0.7%); the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills was 20.0 days, an increase of 1.0 days (5.3%) [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1094 and 1270 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of coke 09 and 01 contracts were 1526 and 1569 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 6 and 21 yuan/ton [6]. - The 09 and 01 bases were - 119 and - 163 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 6 and 21 yuan/ton. The J09 - J01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [6]. Production and Inventory - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 64.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons (- 0.4%); the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 47.2 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons (- 0.6%) [6]. - The total coke inventory was 931.0 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons (0.0%); the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 93.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons (- 8.84%); the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 637.8 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons (0.0%); the port inventory was 200.1 tons, an increase of 9.0 tons (4.7%) [6]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) were 1020 and 894 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0 and 5 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal 09 and 01 contracts were 920 and 938 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 7 and 18 yuan/ton [6]. - The 09 and 01 bases were - 26 and - 70 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 2 and 13 yuan/ton. The JM09 - JM01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [6]. Production and Inventory - The weekly raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines was 868.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons (0.34%); the weekly clean coal production was 443.5 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons (0.34%) [6]. - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory was 176.4 tons, a decrease of 14.3 tons (- 7.5%); the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 892.4 tons, an increase of 44.2 tons (5.24%); the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.9 tons, a decrease of 6.7 tons (- 0.8%); the port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 17.4 tons [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it provides specific investment suggestions for different commodity futures contracts. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as US trade policies, liquidity, and geopolitical risks, leading to differentiated trends in different sectors [2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations may boost bond market sentiment. In the medium - term, the curve strategy recommends paying attention to certain operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are in high - level shock, and silver may have further pulse - type increases, but chasing high should be cautious [2]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a strong - biased shock, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract [2]. - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Arbitrage operations such as long materials and short raw materials can be considered [2]. - **Black Metals**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore, coking coal, and coke at low prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US inventory replenishment has ended. For copper, pay attention to the support level; for aluminum and its alloys, the macro uncertainty is increasing, and the spot market is in a weak season [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be in a strong - biased shock. For different chemical products, due to different supply - demand situations, various investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, long - short operations, and attention to price ranges are recommended [2]. Agricultural Sector - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar is recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Each product has specific price ranges and investment suggestions [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special commodities such as glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere. For new energy products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, due to various factors, it is generally recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market conditions, influencing factors, and offers corresponding investment suggestions for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives market, it analyzes the trends of stock index futures and treasury bond futures; in the non - ferrous metals sector, it assesses the supply - demand situation and price trends of copper, aluminum, etc. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index declined. The four major stock index futures contracts all pulled back. Given the new round of US trade policy negotiation window and the index breaking through the short - term shock range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The liquidity tightened, and the central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations. The export growth showed some resilience, and the social financing data was positive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider going long after adjustment and stabilization, and appropriately bet on a steeper yield curve [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the US dollar strengthened, and gold and silver prices rose first and then fell. In the long - term, gold is bullish due to the weakening US economic outlook and de - dollarization. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level above $3300 per ounce. Silver may have further impulse - type increases, but there are also risks of increased market volatility [8][9][10]. Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - The SCFIS European line index rose 7.26% on July 14. The futures market was volatile. It is expected to be strongly volatile, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract, paying attention to the US - EU trade negotiation situation and the August quotes [12][13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US copper replenishment ended, and non - US regions returned to fundamental pricing. The supply was expected to be looser, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 78000 yuan [14][15][18]. - **Alumina**: The spot was temporarily tightened, but the medium - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 2950 - 3250 yuan, and it is advisable to short at high levels in the medium - term [18][19][20]. - **Aluminum**: The macro uncertainty increased, and the spot market was in a slack season. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 20000 - 20800 yuan [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market followed the decline of aluminum prices, with weak fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate weakly between 19400 - 20200 yuan [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: Concerns about tariffs resurfaced, and the demand outlook was weak. It is expected to fluctuate between 21500 - 23000 yuan [25][26][28]. - **Tin**: Short - term macro disturbances were significant. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels and expect wide - range fluctuations [28][29][32]. - **Nickel**: The market was in a narrow - range shock, and the industrial surplus still restricted prices. It is expected to adjust within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [32][33][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market was mainly in a shock state. It is expected to run within the range of 12500 - 13000 yuan, paying attention to policy trends and steel mill production cuts [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market was driven by news and rose significantly. In the short - term, it is expected to run in a relatively strong range between 63000 - 68000 yuan, and it is advisable to wait and see [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: In the slack season, steel prices maintained a shock trend. It is recommended to observe whether the current levels of 3100 yuan for rebar and 3300 yuan for hot - rolled coil can be effectively broken [43][44][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The sentiment in the black metal market improved. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, and it is advisable to go long at low levels and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction failure rate decreased, and the spot was strongly running. It is advisable to go long at low levels after a pull - back and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [48][49][50]. - **Coke**: Mainstream coking plants planned to raise prices for the first time. It is advisable to conduct hedging for the 2601 contract at high levels, go long at low levels after a pull - back for the 2509 contract, and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [51][52][53]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: US soybeans stabilized, and the rising import cost supported domestic meal prices. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short - term [54][55][56]. - **Pigs**: The potential supply pressure accumulated, and the price increase was weak. It is advisable to go short at high levels above 14500 yuan [58][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel market showed a relatively strong trend on Monday. The spot market was generally stable over the weekend and then followed the futures to adjust prices upwards at the end of the trading session on Monday. The current market sentiment is positive, and commodities are sensitive to supply - side news, with commodities rising in rotation. The weekly data indicates that the apparent demand is in a seasonal decline, production is following the decline in demand, and inventory remains flat. In July, the supply - demand balance is relatively stable with few contradictions. In the industrial sector, due to the improved market sentiment, traders' restocking and positive - spread trading have led to an improvement in spot demand. However, the demand is likely to decline in the second half of the year, the supply remains loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. Although the low inventory in reality and improved market sentiment support valuation - repair trading, the actual demand has limited upward potential. The next macro - observation window is the Politburo meeting at the end of July. In terms of operations, observe whether the current prices of rebar around 3100 and hot - rolled coils around 3300 can be effectively broken through. If so, pay attention to the next pressure levels of 3220 yuan (rebar) and 3350 yuan (hot - rolled coils) [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend yesterday. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipments decreased last week, with a slight increase of 3.8% in shipments from Australia and Brazil (a 3.8% decrease in Australian shipments and a 23.9% increase in Brazilian shipments). The arrivals at 45 ports increased by 13.7% last week, and based on the shipment data, the average future arrivals are expected to rise. On the demand side, due to the increase in the impact of steel mill maintenance and the environmental - protection restrictions in Tangshan last week, the molten iron output dropped from a high level, decreasing by 1.04 to 239.81 tons per day. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and the short - term molten iron output shows resilience. Although the terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off - season, the rush for exports provides some support. Pay attention to the marginal changes in molten iron output. In terms of inventory, the port inventory decreased slightly last week, the port clearance volume increased slightly, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory increased slightly. Looking forward, the molten iron output in July will continue to decline, with an average expected to be around 238 tons. The steel mills' profits will continue to improve. Although the steel mill restrictions in Tangshan from July 4 - 15 reduced the demand for iron ore, the restrictions are coming to an end and production will resume. The "anti - involution" meeting brings new supply - side policy expectations. The apparent demand for the five major steel products remained high last week. In the short term, iron ore will operate in a relatively strong oscillating manner. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips for unilateral trading, and conduct 9 - 1 positive - spread trading for arbitrage [4]. Coke - The coke futures showed an oscillating and relatively strong trend yesterday, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward trend. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, a phased bottom was formed, and market expectations began to improve. Mainstream coking enterprises plan to initiate the first round of price increases, and mainstream steel mills are expected to accept it on Friday, with an increase of 50/55 yuan per ton, which is expected to be postponed for implementation. On the supply side, as the inspection team left, some rectified coal mines started to resume production, and the coking production restrictions were lifted simultaneously. However, due to the losses of some enterprises, it is difficult to increase production. On the demand side, Tangshan carried out environmental - protection restrictions, and the operations of independent coking plants and blast furnaces decreased slightly. The molten iron output in July may remain at around 238 tons per day, continuing the downward trend. In terms of inventory, the coking plant inventory decreased rapidly, the steel mill inventory increased as they actively restocked, and the port inventory increased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. Due to the low price, the downstream steel mills' active restocking demand is conducive to the future price increase of coke. In terms of strategies, the spot market is in the stage of bottom - building and rebound. The coke futures are at a premium to the spot, providing hedging opportunities. The "anti - involution" document brings supply - side policy expectations. For spot - futures trading, it is recommended to hedge the coke 2601 contract on rallies. For speculative trading, it is recommended to go long on the coke 2509 contract on dips after a pull - back. For arbitrage, 9 - 1 positive - spread trading is recommended [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed an oscillating and relatively strong trend yesterday, and the spot prices were stable with a slight increase. In the spot market, the domestic coking coal auctions have recovered recently, with most coal mines having better trading results and an obvious increase in the number of rising coal varieties. The spot market generally shows a bottom - building and rebound trend. On the supply side, although coal mines started to resume production after the inspection team left, and the regional supply is expected to increase, due to good sales, coal mines mainly focus on price support. The overall coal mine production recovery is slow, and coal mines are still in short supply. In terms of imported coal, the Mongolian coal price rebounded slightly, the port trading improved, the inventory pressure decreased, the seaborne coal price increased, and the import profit continued to be inverted. Recently, steel mills have carried out restocking purchases. On the demand side, the coking plant operations decreased slightly, and the downstream blast furnace molten iron output decreased again. However, the downstream restocking intensity increased. During the July 4 - 15 Tangshan restrictions, the downstream demand decreased slightly, and the molten iron output in July may remain at around 238 tons per day. In terms of inventory, the coal mine inventory continued to decrease from a high level, the port inventory decreased from a high level, the port inventory increased, and the downstream inventory increased from a low level. The overall inventory is at a medium level. In terms of strategies, the spot fundamentals have improved. After the basis is repaired, spot traders have hedging needs. The spot rebound and downstream restocking still have a certain degree of sustainability. The recent inspection of General Secretary Xi Jinping in Shanxi boosts confidence. For unilateral trading, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on dips after a pull - back. For arbitrage, 9 - 1 positive - spread trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3210 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3176 yuan/ton, 3138 yuan/ton, and 3170 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coils: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3287 yuan/ton, 3276 yuan/ton, and 3288 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price was 2960 yuan/ton with no change, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton with no change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar was 3333 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3058 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton. The profits of East China rebar, North China rebar, and South China rebar were 160 yuan/ton, 130 yuan/ton, and 270 yuan/ton respectively. The profits of East China hot - rolled coils, North China hot - rolled coils, and South China hot - rolled coils were 240 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton, and 230 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons or 0.5%. The production of the five major steel products was 872.7 tons, a decrease of 12.4 tons or 1.4%. The rebar production was 216.7 tons, a decrease of 4.4 tons or 2.0%, including an increase of 1.1 tons or 4.2% in electric - furnace production and a decrease of 5.5 tons or 2.8% in converter production. The hot - rolled coil production was 323.1 tons, a decrease of 5.0 tons or 1.5% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products was 1339.6 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons or 0.0%. The rebar inventory was 540.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons or 0.9%. The hot - rolled coil inventory was 345.6 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons or 0.2% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 10.6 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons or 5.0%. The apparent demand of the five major steel products was 873.1 tons, a decrease of 12.2 tons or 1.4%. The apparent demand of rebar was 221.5 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons or 1.5%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils was 322.5 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons or 0.6% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 768.2 yuan/ton, 794.2 yuan/ton, 804.0 yuan/ton, and 801.5 yuan/ton respectively. The 09 - contract basis of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines decreased by 96.6%, 63.1%, 55.8%, and 57.5% respectively. The 5 - 9 spread was - 49.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton or 4.3%. The 9 - 1 spread was 30.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton or 9.1%. The 1 - 5 spread was 19.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton or 2.6% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrivals (weekly) were 2662.1 tons, an increase of 178.2 tons or 7.2%. The global shipments (weekly) were 2987.1 tons, a decrease of 7.8 tons or 0.3%. The national monthly import volume was 9813 tons, a decrease of 500.3 tons or 4.9% [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons or 0.4%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) was 319.5 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons or 0.1%. The national monthly pig iron output was 7411.4 tons, an increase of 153.1 tons or 2.1%. The national monthly crude steel output was 8654.5 tons, an increase of 52.6 tons or 0.6% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) decreased by 56.8 tons or 0.4% compared with Monday. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 8979.6 tons, an increase of 61.1 tons or 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) was 20.0 days, an increase of 1.0 day or 5.3% [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1094 yuan/ton and 1270 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of the coke 09 contract and 01 contract were 1520 yuan/ton and 1548 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 6 yuan/ton or 0.4% and 21 yuan/ton or 1.4% respectively. The 09 - contract basis was - 119 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis was - 163 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The J09 - J01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The coking profit of the Steel Union (weekly) was - 63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [6]. Production - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 64.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or 0.4%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills was 47.2 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or 0.6% [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons or 0.4% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory was 931.0 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons or 0.0%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 93.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons or 8.84%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 637.8 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons or 0.0%. The steel mills' available days were 11.6 days, an increase of 0.1 day or 1.0%. The port inventory was 200.1 tons, an increase of 9.0 tons or 4.7% [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap was - 4.8 tons, with no change [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) were 1020 yuan/ton and 894 yuan/ton respectively, with no change in the former and an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.6% in the latter. The prices of the coking coal 09 contract and 01 contract were 920 yuan/ton and 1548 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 7 yuan/ton or 0.8% and 18 yuan/ton or 1.84% respectively. The 09 - contract basis was - 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis was - 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton. The JM09 - JM01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) was 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 0.7% [6]. Production - The raw coal production was 868.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons or 0.34%. The clean coal production was 443.5 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons or 0.34% [6]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 64.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or 0.4%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills was 47.2 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or 0.6% [6]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines was 176.4 tons, a decrease of 14.3 tons or 7.5%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 892.4 tons, an increase of 44.2 tons or 5.24%. The available days were 10.5 days, an increase of 0.6 days or 5.74%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.9 tons, a decrease of 6.7 tons or 0.8%. The available days were 12.5 days, with no change. The port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 17.4 tons [6].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年7月15日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价名 | | | | | | | | | -31.87 | -10.46 | 11.30% | IE潮现价差 | 20.40% | H期现价差 | -5.24 | -10.41 | 26.20% | 21.30% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | -12.46 | -8.38 | 72.90% | 64.70% | IM期现价差 | -160.11 | -18.81 | 70.00% | 5.70% | -13.60 | 30.70% | 次月-当月 | 1.00 | 26.60% | | | -23.20 | -2. ...

| 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 94 | 硅铁 (SF509) | 69.40% | 5484 | 1.71% | 5578 | 5870 | 88 | 硅罐 (SM509) | 5782 | 1.52% | 41.10% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 72 | 2.29% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 3210 | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 3138 | 42.10% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 热卷(HC2510) | 24 | 3300 | 3276 | 0.73% | 26.90% | | | | | | 38 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 804 | 4.89% | 32.50% | 铁矿石 (12509) | 767 | 1392 | 1525 | 焦炭 (J2509) ...