1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures may rebound further and attempt to return above 4,000 ringgit, potentially reaching 4,100 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures face resistance around 8,500 yuan [1]. - US interception of Venezuelan oil - tankers boosts soybean oil, but its industrial use may decline, with limited upside for CBOT soybean oil before Christmas. In China, the approaching Spring Festival备货 may support the domestic futures market [1]. - Some short - term bearish funds in rapeseed oil are closing positions before Christmas, causing a rebound. However, the overall sentiment is bearish, with limited upward potential and resistance at 9,000 yuan [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - Spot prices are stable, and demand for curing around the Winter Solstice has increased. The slaughter cycle is longer this year, with normal - to - fast slaughter progress and increased demand. The futures price is expected to be supported around 11,000 [3][4]. Meal and Grains - South American soybean harvest is expected to be high, which will put pressure on US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal market remains loose, with limited downside and no clear upward drivers. Attention should be paid to the performance around 2,750 [9]. Dates - Spot sales and cost support are weak. Futures prices are under pressure due to expectations of oversupply. If the Spring Festival consumption is strong, the futures price may rebound slightly; otherwise, it will remain under pressure [12]. Apples - Current sales in production areas are slow, and inventory reduction is slow. The market sentiment may improve during the festival. It is recommended to close long positions opportunistically [15][19]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the short - term, the terminal inventory has slightly improved. The corn futures may remain weak, but the decline is limited. Attention should be paid to the selling sentiment and policy releases [22]. Cotton - Internationally, US cotton may fluctuate in the short - term. Domestically, supply pressure is easing, supporting cotton prices. Demand from downstream textile mills is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in a relatively strong range with limited upward momentum [25][26]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production is contracting, but Indian sugar production is abundant. The market lacks positive factors, and it is expected to remain weak and volatile next week. Short positions can be considered on rebounds [29]. Eggs - The supply - demand contradiction has been marginally alleviated, but the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern remains. The market is expected to be weak and volatile this week [31][32]. 3. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On December 19, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan, down 1.79% from the previous day. The futures price (Y2605) was 7,952 yuan, down 1.05%. The basis was 288 yuan, down 18.64% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8,250 yuan on December 19, down 1.79%. The futures price (P2605) was 8,280 yuan, down 0.93%. The basis was - 30 yuan, down 171.43%. The import cost increased by 0.71%, and the import profit decreased by 31.59% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,270 yuan on December 19, down 2.42%. The futures price (OI605) was 8,929 yuan, down 2.33%. The basis was 341 yuan, down 4.75% [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main - contract basis was 305 yuan, down 28.24%. The price of Live Hogs 2605 was 11,905 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The price of Live Hogs 2603 was 11,345 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [3]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with an overall stable situation. The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.19%, and the self - breeding and purchased - pig breeding profits increased [3][4]. Meal and Grains - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,100 yuan, unchanged. The futures price (M2605) was 2,741 yuan, up 0.22%. The basis was 359 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan, up 1.68%. The futures price (RM2605) was 2,337 yuan, up 0.60%. The basis was 83 yuan, up 45.61% [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main - contract of Soybean No.1 was 4,105 yuan, up 1.31%. The basis was - 165 yuan, down 47.32% [9]. Dates - **Futures**: The price of Jujube 2601 was 8,695 yuan/ton, down 0.74%. The price of Jujube 2605 (main - contract) was 8,820 yuan/ton, down 0.84%. The price of Jujube 2609 was 9,100 yuan/ton, down 1.14% [12]. - **Spot**: The spot prices of different grades in Cangzhou showed a downward or stable trend, with the basis of special - grade and first - grade dates strengthening [12]. Apples - **Futures**: The price of Apple 2605 (main - contract) was 9,149 yuan/ton, down 0.54%. The basis was - 949 yuan, up 50 yuan [15]. - **Spot**: The arrival volume at some fruit markets was stable or slightly increased, and the national cold - storage inventory remained unchanged [15]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2603 was 2,192 yuan, unchanged. The Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port was 2,280 yuan, down 0.44%. The basis was 88 yuan, down 10.20% [22]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2603 was 2,484 yuan, down 0.32%. The spot prices in Changchun and Weifang were stable. The basis was 86 yuan, up 10.26% [22]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2605 was 14,070 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The price of Cotton 2601 was 14,130 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The ICE US cotton main - contract was 63.61 cents/pound, down 0.06% [25]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14,986 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The CC Index: 3128B was 15,154 yuan/ton, up 0.06% [25]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5,225 yuan/ton, up 0.93%. The price of Sugar 2605 was 2,126 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract was 15.00 cents/pound, up 1.01% [29]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5,270 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The spot price in Kunming was 5,195 yuan/ton, down 0.29% [29]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of Egg 01 contract was 3,049 yuan/500KG, down 0.91%. The price of Egg 02 contract was 2,888 yuan/500KG, up 0.07% [31]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 2.39%. The basis was - 75 yuan/500KG, down 49.14% [31].

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818051 E-Mail：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 目录： 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2603 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 国投多头减仓近 2000 手 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2603 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 前二十席位增减仓不一 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2603 | 总持仓小幅上升 | 国君空头增仓超 1000 手 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2603 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 国君多头减仓超 2000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -4,969.0 -674.0 1,090.0 -4,095.0 -4,811.0 -1,324.0 3,675.0 -5,032.0 -6,000 -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - The methanol futures market was volatile and slightly weaker, with the basis slightly weakening and overall trading volume being average. - In December, the port arrivals of methanol were still high, but due to gas restrictions and device failures in Iran, a large amount of production capacity was shut down, and the expectation of reduced imports in the far - month significantly increased. Although there was still inventory accumulation pressure at the port in December, the supply - demand balance sheet was expected to shift to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. - In the inland areas, the transfer price in Inner Mongolia decreased month - on - month, mainly affected by high production and factory inventory accumulation. The supply was expected to remain stable due to the repair of enterprise profits from falling coal prices, and the demand from traditional downstream industries increased slightly, with new MTO capacity being put into operation. The inland supply - demand pattern was expected to be stable, and the price would fluctuate within a narrow range [3]. Polyolefins - The polyolefin market was characterized by high production in 2026 and weak current conditions. The market was short - sold, and in 2026, the market was expected to face both lower costs and compressed profits, with the price center moving further down. - For PP, supply increased while demand decreased, the valuation of marginal devices was still low, and inventory slightly decreased. For PE, both supply and demand were weak, and some full - density devices switched from LL to HD production, with the marginal supply of standard products decreasing [6]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the geopolitical tension between Thailand and Cambodia had not eased, affecting the local raw material supply in Thailand, and the domestic production areas were accelerating into the off - season, providing bottom support for rubber prices. - On the demand side, the resumption of work in some enterprises supported the overall capacity utilization rate, but due to increasing production and sales pressure, enterprises would maintain production control in the short term. - In the market, some agents replenished inventory moderately to meet annual targets, but it was the seasonal off - season for demand, and the actual market trading was mainly based on rigid demand. The market continued to operate weakly. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the off - season demand limited the upward space for rubber prices. The rubber price was expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The spot price continued to weaken. The demand from the float glass end decreased significantly due to the cold repair of multiple production lines, and the photovoltaic end continued to develop. The supply was expected to increase with the trial production of Yuanxing's second - phase project, and the overall demand for soda ash was in a contraction pattern. The price was in a downward trend, and after a technical rebound in the recent period, a short - selling strategy after the rebound was recommended [9]. - Glass: The northern demand decreased significantly, and the mid - and downstream purchasers slowed down their procurement and focused on consuming their own inventory. Some northwest manufacturers had set winter - storage prices, and some mid - and downstream players started winter - storage. The southern region still had some rigid demand support, but in the long - term, the market was concerned about the sustainability of future demand. The high inventory in the trading and futures - cash sectors also pressured the spot price, and the futures market was expected to face further pressure [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: The supply - demand situation still faced some pressure. Although some regional enterprises reduced their inventory and some downstream buyers were more active, the inventory level was still high, and there was no obvious positive news in the short term. The price was expected to be weak in the next week, especially in the East China region where supply was expected to increase [10]. - PVC: The supply pressure remained this week, but the market rebounded due to the shutdown of overseas devices. The operating rate was expected to decline slightly next week. Both domestic and foreign demand were under pressure, and the demand in the off - season was weak. The cost support was expected to weaken, and the PVC market was expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The domestic petroleum benzene supply was stable, but the supply increased due to the restart of many hydro - benzene devices, and the port inventory was at a high level. The overall demand from downstream industries decreased slightly. In the short term, the supply - demand situation was weak, and the cost support from crude oil was limited. However, the spring maintenance plan was gradually released, and the price might be boosted in the short term but with limited upside potential. The BZ2603 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [11]. - Styrene: The industry profit improved, and some maintenance devices restarted, increasing the overall supply. The downstream industry profit was compressed, and the terminal demand was weak. The inventory of styrene - benzene increased, but some East China factories had export transactions. The price was boosted by the short - term rebound of crude oil and the rise of PX, but there was an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the cost support was limited. The rebound space was expected to be limited [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: In the short term, the supply was high supported by short - process production, and the maintenance plan might be postponed if the efficiency improved. The PXN spread widened significantly, and the processing fees of downstream PTA and polyester products were further compressed. The terminal demand was weakening, and the polyester industry was under pressure. The price might continue to be strong in the short term but could decline if the polyester industry reduced production substantially [12]. - PTA: The supply - demand situation was not under great pressure in November - December, but the processing fee was compressed. The price followed the raw material PX, and a short - selling strategy after the rebound was recommended, with a long - term low - buying strategy and a long - short spread strategy for TA5 - 9 [12]. - MEG: The high polyester operating rate provided some support, but the overseas supply reduction was offset by sufficient imports, and the port inventory was expected to accumulate. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level, and a reverse spread strategy for EG5 - 9 and a short - selling strategy for EG2605 - C - 4100 were recommended [12]. - Short - fiber: The supply was high, and the demand was seasonally weak. The price followed the raw material, and a strategy of short - selling the processing fee was recommended [12]. - Bottle chips: The domestic supply was expected to increase, and the processing fee was expected to be compressed. A strategy similar to PTA was recommended, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [12]. Crude Oil - The international crude oil price rebounded on Monday, driven by geopolitical factors such as the US seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker and the mutual attacks on energy facilities between Russia and Ukraine. - After the US - Ukraine negotiation, although the "peace plan" draft was completed, the situation in the Gaza Strip was still complex, and the repeated process would affect the crude oil price. The price was expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel, and the geopolitical situation should be continuously monitored [13]. LPG - The LPG futures prices of different contracts increased to varying degrees. The port inventory decreased, and the downstream PDH operating rate increased slightly. - The market was affected by factors such as international prices and domestic supply - demand conditions, but no specific long - term trend prediction was provided in the report [16]. Urea - The urea futures market was weak, while the spot price was stable. The market mainly executed previous orders, and new orders were purchased cautiously, with a slight decline in trading volume. - India's new urea tender provided short - term support for the futures price. On the supply side, although the industry operating rate decreased slightly due to the shutdown of some gas - fired devices in Southwest and Inner Mongolia, the daily urea production remained at a high level of 19 - 20 million tons, and the supply pressure still existed. - On the demand side, agricultural demand was in the off - season, but the fertilizer reserve demand in Northeast and Guangdong provided some support, while industrial demand weakened marginally. The urea price was expected to fluctuate in the range of 1680 - 1730, and the device restart rhythm and downstream demand progress should be monitored [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of MA2601 remained unchanged, while MA2605 increased slightly. The MA15 spread decreased, the basis in Taicang weakened, and the MTO05 disk price decreased significantly. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and the regional spreads also changed [1]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86% to 39.114 million tons, the port inventory decreased by 1.26% to 121.9 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 1.43% to 161.0 million tons [2]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 1.29% to 77.63%, the overseas enterprise operating rate in Shanghai decreased by 5.43% to 60.5%, and the operating rates of different downstream industries showed different trends, with the acetic acid operating rate increasing significantly [3]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 all decreased. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed [6]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 3.65% to 48.8 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 2.67% to 46.9 million tons. The PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory both decreased to zero [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.30% to 63.9%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.28% to 42.5%. The PP device operating rate increased by 1.37% to 79.4%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 53.8% [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex decreased by 0.34%, the basis weakened, and the prices of other varieties also showed different trends. The monthly spreads between different contracts changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China decreased in October, while the production in India increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires were stable, and the domestic tire production and export volume increased in November [7]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 3.28% to 515,227 tons, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory in the SHFE decreased by 1.02% to 58,968 tons [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The glass and soda ash prices in different regions and contracts showed different trends, and the spreads and basis also changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory increased, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [9]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different regions and contracts changed, and the spreads and basis also showed different trends [10]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory decreased slightly [10]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries showed different trends, and the operating rates of downstream industries also changed [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the spreads between different contracts and products also changed [11]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [11]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream industries showed different trends [11]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials and downstream polyester products increased, and the spreads and processing fees between different products changed [12]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the supply - demand situation of different products in the polyester industry chain was affected by factors such as production and demand [12]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain showed different trends, with some industries' operating rates decreasing [12]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [13]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of refined oil products increased, and the spreads between different contracts and products also changed [13]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of different refined oil products increased to varying degrees [13]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts increased, and the spreads between different contracts and the basis changed [16]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery inventory ratio remained unchanged, and the port inventory decreased [16]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream operating rate remained unchanged, and the downstream PDH operating rate increased slightly [16]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The urea futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable. The spreads between different contracts and the basis changed [18]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased [18]. - **Operating Rate**: The industry operating rate decreased slightly, but the daily production remained at a high level [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term fundamentals remain strong. Tin prices are expected to maintain a strong trend within the year. Adopt a bullish approach, hold long positions, and consider buying on dips. Monitor subsequent macro and supply - side changes [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The strong cost and weak demand situation restricts the upward and downward space of ADC12 prices. It is expected to continue high - level range - bound oscillations in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Focus on changes in scrap aluminum supply, regional environmental policies, and downstream orders [4]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices remain high - level and volatile, and futures prices are still at a significant premium to the spot market. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and pay attention to the reduction in production and the acceptance of price adjustments. Remind investors to manage their positions [5]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand situation in December. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If production drops significantly, it may break through 10,000 yuan/ton; otherwise, the price will fall [6]. Zinc - TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and zinc prices are oscillating. Pay attention to the support level of 22,850 - 22,950 for the main contract [8]. Copper - In the long - term, the bottom center of copper prices may continue to move up. Pay attention to the support level of 92,500 - 95,000 for the main contract. Consider upward and downward driving factors for future trends [12]. Alumina - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate at a low level around the cash cost line. The main contract reference range is 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Pay attention to environmental protection and production reduction policies [15]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton. Focus on macro expectations and inventory changes [15]. Nickel - The short - term market is expected to continue to oscillate and repair, but the upward driving force is limited. The main contract reference range is 116,000 - 124,000. Pay attention to the callback possibility after news digestion [16]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 13,000. Pay attention to nickel ore news and the implementation of steel mill production cuts [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term. They may continue to test highs and then retreat and adjust. Pay attention to policy and news changes [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 3,500 yuan/ton to 340,600 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.04%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 51.00 dollars/ton to - 11.00 dollars/ton, with an increase of 82.26% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% [2]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory increased by 9.53%, and social inventory increased by 8.65% [2]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in various regions increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.46%. The refined - scrap price difference of aluminum in Foshan increased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84% [4]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 2.38% [4]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 1,400 to 58,845, with a decline of 2.32%. The N - type silicon wafer price increased by 2 - 4%, and the battery cell price increased by 5% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 12.18%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48% [5]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory remained unchanged, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 7.73% [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Some industrial silicon spot prices increased by 50 yuan/ton. The futures price decreased by 95 yuan/ton to 8,595 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in the month, and the national start - up rate decreased by 4.84% [6]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory decreased by 1.43% [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased slightly, and the import loss increased [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and exports increased by 402.59% [8]. - **Inventory**: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 0.95%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.65% [8]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1,325 yuan/ton to 93,675 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.43%. The import loss increased [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and imports decreased by 3.90% [12]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 2.37%, and the SHFE inventory increased by 7.18% [12]. Alumina - **Price and Spread**: Alumina prices in various regions decreased slightly. The electrolytic aluminum import loss increased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% [15]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the whole industry chain increased by 5.6 tons to a new high [15]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 21,930 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.50%. The spot discount widened [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, and exports increased by 116.23% [15]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.67% [15]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 121,800 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.42%. The futures import loss decreased [16]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66% [16]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory increased by 1.35%, and the social inventory increased by 0.41% [16]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil in Foshan increased by 50 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.39%. The spot - futures spread decreased [18]. - **Fundamentals**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and exports increased by 13.18% [18]. - **Inventory**: The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 2.30% [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1,350 yuan/ton to 99,000 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.38%. The inter - month spread changed [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and demand increased by 5.11% [19]. - **Inventory**: Lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 23.36% [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report 1. **PVC**: Overall, the demand side provides weak support for PVC, and the supply - demand remains in an oversupply pattern, with prices hard to be optimistic, expected to continue in a weakening trend. However, the V2602 contract price rose 2.92% this week, causing losses in the bear - spread option portfolio [3]. 2. **Tin**: Market sentiment is positive, and the fundamentals are strong, so tin prices are expected to remain strong throughout the year. The bull - spread option portfolio made a profit due to a 3.92% increase in the Shanghai Tin 2602 contract this week [3]. 3. **Copper**: For the future of copper, upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and better - than - expected interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are the negative feedback from weak demand, but the downside space is limited in non - recession scenarios. A bull - spread option portfolio is recommended [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Option Underlying Weekly Trading Overview - **Price trends**: The price trends of option underlyings this week showed significant differentiation. Special commodity sector underlyings generally rose, with lithium carbonate having the largest increase of +11.78%, and silver in the precious metals sector also rising relatively strongly at 4.07%. Most underlyings in the agricultural products sector declined, except for cotton and live pigs, with soybean oil and apples having relatively large declines of - 3.79% and - 3.30% respectively [11]. - **Trading volume**: The special commodity sector attracted more attention this week, with polysilicon having the largest increase in average daily trading volume, up 73.80% week - on - week. Apples and sugar in the agricultural products sector also had significant increases in average daily trading volume, up 47.61% and 45.97% respectively, while corn in the same sector had a large decline of - 40.58% [11]. - **20 - day HV**: Glass and PVC had the largest increases in 20 - day HV, up 18.50% and 15.41% respectively compared to last week. Lithium carbonate and industrial silicon in the special commodity sector had relatively significant declines in 20 - day HV, down 12.60% and 6.81% respectively [11]. 2. Option Contracts Weekly Trading and Position Overview - **Trading volume**: Options such as p - xylene (+255.64%), nickel (+125.29%), alumina (+99.95%), tin (+83.26%), and gold (+79.56%) had relatively large increases in average daily trading volume week - on - week, while options such as rapeseed meal and glass had large declines [14]. - **PCR indicators**: In each sector, options such as gold, live pigs, aluminum, and synthetic rubber had an average daily trading PCR below 50% and were still in the historical low - range. Options such as silver, rapeseed meal, apples, iron ore, p - xylene, and polysilicon had an average daily position PCR still exceeding 100% [14]. 3. Option Main - contract At - the - Money IV Overview - **IV trends**: This week, the IV of option underlyings showed significant differentiation. The IV of underlyings in the special commodity sector all increased, with polysilicon and lithium carbonate having relatively large increases in main - contract at - the - money IV, up 14.18% and 13.59% respectively. In the stock index sector, the main - contract at - the - money IV of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices remained in the historical low - range. PVC, which had a 60.78% increase in IV last week, saw a 28.55% decline this week. Attention can be paid to the mean - reversion of the implied volatility of varieties with an IV historical percentile in the extreme range below 10% or above 90% [17]. 4. Key Data of Major Varieties - **Stock indices**: The latest closing prices of the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 3004.34, 4568.18, and 7329.81 respectively, with corresponding option total trading volumes of 182906600 billion, 720958040 billion, and 2506636660 billion yuan. Other relevant indicators such as trading volume PCR, position volume PCR, variety IV, and historical volatility are also provided [21][24][26]. - **Precious metals**: The latest closing prices of gold and silver were 979.9 and 15376 respectively, with corresponding option total trading volumes of 1426516000 billion and 4002475400 billion yuan. Other relevant indicators are also given [29][31]. - **Agricultural products**: The latest closing prices, option total trading volumes, and other relevant indicators of various agricultural products such as cotton, soybean meal, and palm oil are presented [33][36][39]. - **Black commodities**: The latest closing prices, option total trading volumes, and other relevant indicators of iron ore and rebar are provided [63][65]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: The latest closing prices, option total trading volumes, and other relevant indicators of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are given [68][70]. - **Energy and chemicals**: The latest closing prices, option total trading volumes, and other relevant indicators of crude oil, PTA, and other energy and chemical products are presented [82][84]. - **Special commodities**: The latest closing prices, option total trading volumes, and other relevant indicators of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are provided [111][113][115].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the end - of - year important festivals in Europe and America, with the release of dovish signals by Fed officials, large - scale short positions in COMEX silver and delivery demand exacerbating spot supply shortages, and institutional pre - allocation of metal assets, precious metal prices are pushed up. In the day session on December 22, the Shanghai silver main contract AG2602 rose by more than 6%, platinum and palladium futures main 06 contracts hit the 7% daily limit in the morning, the international gold price exceeded the historical high since October 20, and the Shanghai gold main contract AU2602 rose by more than 2% and returned above 1000 yuan/gram [1] - In the short - term, without clear negative factors, the precious metal market will remain strong, but during the end - of - year holiday in the European and American markets, trading liquidity will weaken, which may further amplify market fluctuations, and investors need to set reasonable stop - loss and take - profit levels [11] Summary by Relevant Catalog Driving Analysis 1: US Employment and Inflation Data Slowdown Support Fed's Loose Policy, Geopolitical Conflicts Stimulate Precious Metals to Strengthen - US economic data shows that the labor market has a downward risk and the inflation rebound momentum slows down. The unemployment rate in November soared to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, and the average monthly new non - farm employment in the second half of this year was only 22,800. The core CPI in November fell to 2.6%, weaker than expected and the lowest since March 2021. The Fed may further loosen monetary policy, and the market predicts about 3 interest rate cuts in 2026 [2] - Geopolitical conflicts such as the possible Israeli military strike on Iran, the slow progress of the "peace plan" in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US blockade on Venezuela continue to increase investors' risk - aversion demand, supporting the precious metal market [4] Driving Analysis 2: The Performance of the COMEX Silver Delivery Month and the Persistent Tightness of Circulating Inventory - From December to now, the COMEX silver futures market has a physical delivery demand of more than 60 million ounces in a single month, accounting for nearly 50% of the total registered warehouse inventory of 128 million ounces. The short position is as high as 990 million ounces. The shortage of physical inventory forces some shorts to close positions or hedge in the spot market, amplifying the upward momentum of silver prices [5] - There is a strong expected demand for silver in the electric vehicle and AI data center fields. The World Silver Association predicts that the compound annual growth rate of silver demand in the global automotive industry will be about 3.4% from 2025 - 2031, and the potential annual silver consumption of silver - carbon solid - state batteries in the next few years can reach thousands of tons. More countries may increase strategic silver reserves [5] Driving Analysis 3: Favorable Supply - Demand Fundamentals and Continuous Capital Inflow into the Platinum and Palladium Markets - The strong prices of platinum and palladium are due to the favorable supply - demand fundamentals, and factors such as high trading enthusiasm, low margin cost, and small tradable volume amplify price fluctuations. In the absence of more guiding data, the upward logic of platinum and palladium prices will continue to strengthen [9] Outlook for the Future Market - With global mainstream institutions continuously raising precious metal price forecasts, some investors are pre - allocating precious metals, leading to an increase in ETF and derivatives positions. The short - term market will remain strong. The potential weekly increase of silver may reach 9% (90% confidence interval), and the monthly increase can reach up to 18%. The potential increase of gold and platinum and palladium is relatively small [11]

去法種也会会 | 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | 2025年12月22日 | 历史1年分位数 | 品种 | 匿新債 | 全历史分位数 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | 价元 | -41.18 | IE期前分差 | -38.79 | 13.90%6 | 7.10% | | | | | | | | | | | | H期配分器 | 68.40% | 2.06 | 5.58 | 77.40% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -114.15 | 2.00% | -114.32 | 14.70% | IM期现价差 | -188.01 | 5.00% | 4.30% | -3.26 | | 次月-当月 | -20.00 | -0.80 | 21.30% | 22 60 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Last week, steel prices showed a pattern of low - level upward repair, but with weak demand and insufficient upward momentum. The overall steel market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coils in the 3150 - 3350 range [1]. - Rebar has good de - stocking performance, and the 1 - 5 positive spread can be held. The acceleration of plate production cuts is expected to speed up the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, and the 5 - month hot - rolled coil to rebar spread can be exited at low levels. The screw - to - ore ratio is still weak, and considering the low level of molten iron, one can try to long the screw - to - ore ratio arbitrage at low levels [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore prices rebounded slightly and remained range - bound. The key factors for future trading are the steel mill restocking expectation and the downward space of molten iron. The overall iron ore market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with the range of 730 - 820. It is recommended to operate the 05 contract within the range and try shorting around 800 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, both coke and coking coal futures showed a strong rebound. Coke spot prices are still in a downward adjustment trend, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. For coke, it is recommended to go long the 2605 contract at low levels and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, it is also recommended to go long the 2605 contract at low levels and use the same arbitrage strategy [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Last week, ferrosilicon prices rebounded slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be resolved, and the price is expected to be range - bound between 5400 - 5650. It is recommended to try shorting when the price rebounds above the immediate cost in Ningxia [8]. - Ferromanganese is in a state of overall supply - demand balance, and manganese ore provides certain support for ferromanganese prices. The key factors for the future are the production cut amplitude and the steel mill restocking before winter. The price is expected to move weakly with limited amplitude [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions decreased slightly, and futures prices also showed a downward trend. The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed to varying degrees [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained stable. The costs of electric - arc furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu increased, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions showed different degrees of change, with some increasing and some still in a loss state [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output increased slightly by 0.1%, the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.0%, the rebar output increased by 1.6%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 5.4%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, with rebar having better de - stocking performance and hot - rolled coil having slower de - stocking [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.8%, the apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 0.5%, the apparent demand of rebar increased by 2.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.4% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The prices of various iron ore varieties showed a slight increase or decrease. The basis of the 09 contract for different iron ore varieties increased to varying degrees, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also changed [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment increased compared to the previous period, and the molten iron output decreased by 1.2%. The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume decreased by 1.8%, and the national pig iron and crude steel monthly output decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port iron ore inventory increased by 0.8%, the inventory of 64 steel mills in terms of available days decreased by 1.2%, and the inventory of 247 steel mills in terms of available days increased by 5.0% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices showed a downward trend in some contracts, and the basis of different contracts changed. The spot prices of coke and coking coal also had different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly, and molten iron production decreased by 1.2%. The supply of coking coal decreased slightly, and the demand for coking coal also decreased due to the decrease in coke production [7]. Inventory - Coke inventory decreased slightly overall, with coking plants accumulating inventory and ports and steel mills reducing inventory. Coking coal inventory increased slightly overall, with coal washing plants and coking enterprises reducing inventory and mines, ports, steel mills, and ports accumulating inventory [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices increased slightly, and the spot prices of most regions remained stable. The spreads between different regions and contracts also changed [8]. Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices were firm, and some overseas mines' January offers increased. Electricity prices were basically stable, providing certain cost support for ferromanganese. The cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased slightly [8]. Supply and Demand - Ferrosilicon production decreased by 6.15%, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased by 6.6%. Ferromanganese production decreased by 0.5%, and the operating rate decreased by 3.4%. The demand for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly [8]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon factory inventory remained high, and the inventory decreased by 16.3%. Ferromanganese inventory increased slightly by 0.7%, and the average available days of inventory for both remained relatively stable [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various financial markets including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping. They detail price movements, spreads, and related market indicators for different contracts and time periods, offering insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures (Doc 1) - **Price Differences**: Provides price differences for various stock index futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including current - month, next - month, and far - month spreads, as well as inter - period and cross - period spreads. For example, the IF period - to - period spread shows different values and percentage changes [1]. - **Quantile Information**: Presents historical 1 - year and all - time quantiles for price differences, helping to assess the relative position of current spreads [1]. Bond Futures (Doc 2) - **Basis and Spreads**: Details basis values for TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures, along with cross - period and cross - variety spreads. For instance, the T basis on 2025 - 12 - 19 was 1.6707 with a 0.0450 change from the previous day [2]. - **Percentile Data**: Includes the percentile of spreads since the futures contract listing, which is useful for understanding the spread's historical position [2]. Precious Metals (Doc 3) - **Price Movements**: Covers domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. For example, the AU2602 contract price decreased by 0.06% from 980.50 to 979.90 yuan/gram on December 19 [3]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Analyzes basis values between spot and futures prices and price ratios between different precious metals, such as the COMEX gold/silver ratio which decreased by 3.09% to 67.59 [3]. Container Shipping (Doc 5) - **Index Movements**: Tracks the movement of shipping indices like SCFIS and SCFI, showing changes in European and US routes. For example, the SCFIS (European route) increased by 0.10% to 1510.56 points on December 15 [5]. - **Futures and Fundamentals**: Provides futures prices and basis values for container shipping contracts, along with fundamental data such as global container capacity supply, port performance, and overseas economic indicators [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices rebounded slightly, with overall prices remaining range - bound. Future trading focuses on steel mills' restocking expectations and the downward space of hot metal production. The iron ore supply will have limited marginal increase, the hot metal production is at a historically low level, and the downward space is relatively limited. Iron ore will continue to accumulate inventory, but the marginal accumulation space will decrease. The future key factors are BHP negotiation, hot metal trend, and steel mills' restocking expectations. It is expected that the overall situation will remain range - bound, with the range reference of 730 - 820. For the 05 contract, it is recommended to operate in the range, and short at around 800 [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread Spot Price - The spot prices of various types of iron ore powder increased this week. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 7 yuan/ton to 872 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines increased by 13 yuan/ton to 794 yuan/ton [7]. Variety Basis - The basis of the 05 contract for different types of iron ore powder is presented, such as the basis of Carajás fines, PB fines, and Super Special fines [16][18][21]. Spot and Forward Transactions - The MA5 data of iron ore port spot transactions and forward transactions are presented, along with the import profit data of PB fines and Mac fines [31][33][35]. Inter - monthly Spread - The spread data between different iron ore contracts (such as I01 - 05, I2205 - I2209) are presented, as well as the position data of the 09 and 05 contracts [38][39][41]. Supply Global Shipment - This period's global iron ore shipment continued to increase, with the increment concentrated in Australia and Brazil. The total shipment of Australia and Brazil was 2,965.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 310.2 tons. Vale had the most significant growth [3]. Four Major Mines Shipment - The shipment data of Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale, and FMG to China are presented. For example, Vale's shipment increased by 204 tons week - on - week to 682 tons [56]. Australia and Brazil Freight - The freight data from Western Australia to Qingdao and from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao are presented. For example, the freight from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 10.4 dollars/ton [64]. Arrival Volume - The arrival volume of 45 ports and 47 ports increased this week. The arrival volume of 45 ports was 2,723 tons, a week - on - week increase of 243 tons [71]. Domestic Iron Ore Import - From January to October 2025, the total national iron ore import was 103,003 tons, a year - on - year increase of 804 tons. The import of Australian and Brazilian ore increased, while the import of non - mainstream ore decreased [84]. Domestic Concentrate Production and Sales - The iron concentrate production of 186 and 126 mining enterprises decreased this week. The production of 186 mining enterprises was 44.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons [95]. Demand Steel Enterprise Production Indicators - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel enterprises was 226.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99 percentage points [110]. Furnace Charge Ratio - The sinter ore ratio in the furnace was 73.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 percentage points, and the pellet ore ratio was 15.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points [127]. Global Steel and Pig Iron Production - The production data of global, Chinese, and other countries' steel and pig iron are presented, including India, Russia, Turkey, etc. The production and year - on - year changes are shown in the corresponding charts [128][131][133]. Inventory Port Inventory - As of December 19th, the inventory of 45 ports was 15,512.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81.21 tons. The inventory of 45 ports and 47 ports and the inventory by cargo ownership are presented [3][157][160]. Steel Mill Inventory - The import ore inventory of steel mills decreased by 110.25 tons to 8,723.95 tons, and there was no obvious restocking behavior [3][165][166].