1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report about industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight, and the strong US dollar index suppresses copper prices. The market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November, and subsequent attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and Sino - US tariff situation. - The shortage of copper ore supply remains unchanged. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall, there may be a phased reduction in smelting production. The psychological price ceiling of downstream users for copper is gradually rising. - In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. In the short - term, excessive price increases may inhibit demand. [2] Aluminum - The alumina market shows regional differentiation. The northern market shows signs of bottoming out, while the southern market continues to decline. The supply pressure has not been substantially relieved, and the demand side faces multiple pressures. - The recent rise in the aluminum price is mainly driven by events, with potential risks of short - term range corrections. Attention should be paid to the actual production progress of Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects, the supply recovery progress of Guinean bauxite, and the inventory depletion rhythm. [4] Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market followed the aluminum price to rise, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and the supply of scrap aluminum is short, leading to a contraction in industry supply. - The demand side shows a mild recovery, and the ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend under the dual effects of cost support and supply - demand balance. [5] Zinc - Against the background of concerns about LME zinc squeezing, the Shanghai zinc price oscillated at a high level. The supply is generally loose, but the subsequent increase in supply may be limited, and attention should be paid to the inflection point signal of supply changing from loose to tight. - The demand side has no unexpected performance. The low overseas inventory supports the zinc price, and the domestic zinc supply is relatively loose. The zinc price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term and may maintain a range - bound trend. [7] Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply is limited this year. The demand side is still weak, and although some consumption is driven by AI and the photovoltaic industry, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. - The market sentiment has improved, and the long - term low - position orders can be held. The follow - up should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar. [8] Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market oscillated and repaired slightly. The macro - market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia. - The refined nickel production is still at a high level, with new projects put into production and some projects planning to reduce production. The nickel ore supply in the Philippines is affected by the rainy season, while that in Indonesia is relatively loose. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the overall fundamentals are flat, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range. [10] Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly, with weak market information. The macro - driving force is weakened, and the nickel ore supply in the Philippines is reduced, while that in Indonesia is relatively loose. - The ferronickel price is under pressure, and the chromium - iron market is weakly stable. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile. [12] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market was generally strong. The production increased slightly last week, mainly driven by lithium - spodumene and mica. The downstream demand is more optimistic than expected, but the news - side uncertainty and capital impact may put pressure on the price. - The price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 660 yuan/ton to 85,995 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.77%. - The import profit and loss improved by 21.88 yuan/ton to - 500 yuan/ton. [2] Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, the import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50%. - The domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory decreased by 5.2 million tons to 62.61 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.67%. [2] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 21,360 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.28%. - The import profit and loss improved by 98.7 yuan/ton to - 2349 yuan/ton. [4] Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%. - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 62.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. [4] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,350 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 1729 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.10%. [5] Fundamental Data - In October, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 64.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. In September, the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 28.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%. - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.1 million tons to 5.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.82%. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,500 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 525.27 yuan/ton to - 4212 yuan/ton. [7] Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, the import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61%. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons to 15.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.73%. [7] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1500 yuan/ton to 282,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.53%. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 25.5 dollars/ton to 39.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 39.23%. [8] Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import was 8714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71%. - The SHEF inventory increased by 153 tons to 5919 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.65%. [8] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. - The futures import profit and loss decreased by 374 yuan/ton to - 1701 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.18%. [10] Supply and Inventory - The Chinese refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The import volume was 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36%. - The SHFE inventory increased by 676 tons to 36,751 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.87%. [10] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton. - The spot - futures price difference decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.64%. [12] Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 enterprises) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.32 million tons to 48.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65%. [12] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 80,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12%. - The SMM electric - carbon - industrial - carbon price difference remained unchanged at 2200 yuan/ton. [14] Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. The demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70%. - The total lithium carbonate inventory in October was 84,234 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.90%. [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Poultry and Oilseeds**: The market is affected by the US tariff decision and high domestic inventory, with poor profit control and limited support for demand. Future soybean procurement may face challenges, but the support for soybean meal is expected to increase [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil futures may face further downward pressure, while domestic palm oil and soybean oil futures are expected to show a volatile rebound. The demand for domestic soybean oil is expected to remain stable, and the basis quotation is expected to have limited fluctuation [2]. - **Hogs**: The current hog market is in a range - bound pattern, with limited downward space. The slowdown of the overall slaughter progress in November may boost hog prices to some extent. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish in single - side operations, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The supply in the Northeast and North China regions is stable. The demand side shows general inventory - building enthusiasm in the trading sector. The corn market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and there is a selling pressure expectation in November [7]. - **Sugar**: The expected increase in supply surplus and weakening energy prices have led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is under pressure but has significant cost support at around 5400. The spot market is tepid, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [12]. - **Cotton**: The new cotton cost provides strong support for cotton prices, but there is also hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, but the inventory pressure is not large. Short - term cotton prices are expected to oscillate within a range [13]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the egg market still faces a supply - exceeding - demand situation. The price is expected to be in a difficult - to - rise - or - fall state initially and then gradually transition to a slow - rising trend. The egg price is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Poultry and Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day. The futures price of M2601 is 3068 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The basis of M2601 is - 8 yuan/ton, up 81.40%. The spot basis quotation in Jiangsu is m2601 - 60 [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of RM2601 is 2549 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The basis of RM2601 is 1 yuan/ton, down 92.31% [1]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3920 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4146 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The basis of the main soybean contract is - 226 yuan/ton, down 11.33% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 is 241 yuan/ton, down 3.21%. The rapeseed meal inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 is 133 yuan/ton, up 0.76%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot is 2.74, down 0.86%, and that of the main contract is 2.67, up 0.78% [1]. Oils and Fats - **Palm Oil**: The current price of first - grade palm oil in Jiangsu is 8390 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. The futures price of Y2601 is 8188 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The basis of Y2601 is 202 yuan/ton, down 16.53% [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: The current price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9780 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The futures price of OI601 is 9564 yuan/ton, up 1.67%. The basis of OI601 is 216 yuan/ton, down 37.03% [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed - soybean oil spread of 2601 is 1376 yuan/ton, up 8.43%. The soybean oil inter - delivery spread 01 - 05 is 182 yuan/ton, down 3.19% [2]. Hogs - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis is - 40 yuan/ton, up 57.89%. The futures price of hog 2605 is 12040 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The futures price of hog 2601 is 11940 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 11900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong is 12020 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2601 is 2154 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis is - 4 yuan/ton, down 125.00% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2601 is 2469 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. The spot price in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis is 41 yuan/ton, down 30.51% [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 is 5448 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The futures price of sugar 2605 is 5388 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.22 cents/pound, up 0.71% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The spot price in Kunming is 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Nanning basis is 362 yuan/ton, up 17.92% [12]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The futures price of cotton 2605 is 13615 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The futures price of cotton 2601 is 13605 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The ICE US cotton main contract is 64.48 cents/pound, down 0.91% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of 3128B in Xinjiang is 14618 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The CC Index of 3128B is 14820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory is 172.02 tons, up 69.85 tons. The industrial inventory is 80.93 tons, down 3.62 tons [13]. Eggs - **Futures Indicators**: The futures price of the egg 12 - contract is 3227 yuan/500KG, up 0.31%. The futures price of the egg 01 - contract is 3386 yuan/500KG, up 0.03% [15]. - **Spot Indicators**: The egg price in the production area is 2.93 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. The egg - feed ratio is 2.38, up 0.03 [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol Market - The current methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction centered on high port inventories. The 01 contract faces challenges in inventory digestion, and the weak reality pattern may continue until Iranian gas restrictions are implemented. The 05 contract is expected to see significant inventory reduction, so attention can be focused on the MTO profit shrinkage opportunity of the 05 contract [1][3]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is generally stable with some plant overhauls offset by xylene supplements. Demand has some support in the short - term, but the November supply - demand is expected to be loose, and price drivers are limited. PTA may have a slight inventory build - up, and its price rebound space is restricted. Ethylene glycol is expected to have a high inventory build - up in November - December, facing upward pressure. Short - fiber supply remains high in the short - term, but demand may weaken seasonally, and its price rebound space is limited. Bottle - chip supply and demand are in a loose pattern, and it follows cost fluctuations [6]. Polyolefin Market - PP supply increase is slowing due to more unplanned overhauls, while PE supply is expected to increase as overhauls peak. Demand has improved, but overall, there is pressure from increasing supply and decreasing demand. The 01 contract has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may offer long - term low - buying opportunities, and the month - spread is biased towards reverse arbitrage [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda supply is expected to increase in November, with weak demand support, and its price is expected to be weakly stable. PVC supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Market - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose in November, with limited demand support and increasing port inventories. Its price driver is weak. Styrene supply may slightly decrease in November, demand is expected to change little, and its price driver is also limited [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2125 on November 6, down 0.75% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2226, down 0.45%. The MA15 spread was - 101, up 6.32%. The太仓 basis was - 30, up 25%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang all had different changes [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 38.641% (a 2.75% increase), port inventory was 151.7 million tons (a 0.71% increase), and social inventory was 190.4% (a 1.11% increase) [2]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 76.09%, up 0.31%; overseas was 70.7%, down 2.68%. The downstream MTO device operating rate was 84.98%, up 1.09%, while the acetic acid operating rate was 72.3%, down 1.15% [3]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (January) was $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2%; WTI crude oil (December) was $59.43 per barrel, down 0.3%. CFR Japan naphtha was $576 per ton, down 0.3% [6]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 6515 yuan/ton, with a cash - flow of 94 yuan/ton, down 31.2%. The bottle - chip futures PR2601 price was 5736 yuan/ton, up 1.3% [6]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate was 78.1%, down 0.5%; PTA operating rate was 78.0%, down 1.0%; MEG comprehensive operating rate was 76.2%, up 4.0% [6]. Polyolefin Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6805, down 0.13%; PP2601 closed at 6471, down 0.31%. The L15 spread was - 81, down 6.90%; the PP15 spread was - 121, up 6.14% [8]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory was 49.0 million tons, up 17.84%; PP enterprise inventory was 60.0 million tons, up 0.81% [8]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - PE device operating rate was 82.6%, up 2.13%; PP device operating rate was 77.8%, up 0.9% [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged. V2601 closed at 4630, down 0.2%; the V basis was - 110, down 12.2% [11]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 88.3%, up 3.3%; PVC total operating rate was 77.1%, up 4.5%. The demand of caustic soda's main downstream, alumina, was weak, and PVC demand was in the off - season [11]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China plants increased by 18.9%, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (December) was $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2%; CFR Japan naphtha was $576 per ton, down 0.3%. Pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5300 yuan/ton, unchanged [12]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - Pure benzene East China spot was 5389 yuan/ton, down 0.4%; styrene East China spot was 6310 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. EB cash - flow (non - integrated) was - 213 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [12]. Operating Rates and Inventories - Domestic pure benzene operating rate was 74.1%, up 1.9%; styrene operating rate was 66.7%, down 3.7%. Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 12.10 million tons, up 42.4% [12].

钢材产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月7日 周敏波 Z0010559 | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3190 | 3180 | 10 | 153 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3190 | 3180 | 10 | 153 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3270 | 3270 | 0 | 233 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3102 | 3094 | 8 | 88 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3137 | 3133 | 4 | ਦੇਤੋ | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3037 | 3024 | 13 | 153 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3270 | 3270 | O | 14 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3190 | 3190 | 0 | -66 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3270 | 3270 | 0 | -17 | | | 热卷 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports Group 2: Core Views - The reports present the latest data and changes in the price spreads, basis, and other indicators of stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals futures, and container shipping futures on November 6 - 7, 2025, including price differences, historical quantiles, and percentage changes [1][2][4][6] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Spreads**: The current - spot price spreads, inter - period price spreads, and cross - period price spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, along with their changes from the previous day and historical quantiles. For example, the current - spot price spread of IC is - 99.32, with a change of 22.02 from the previous day [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., are provided, including their values, changes, and historical quantiles [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis**: The basis of TS, TF, T, and TL is presented, including the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles. For example, the basis of T is 1.8116, with a change of 0.0822 from the previous day [2] - **Inter - Period Price Spreads**: Inter - period price spreads such as current - next quarter, current - far quarter, etc., are provided, along with their changes and historical quantiles [2] - **Cross - Variety Price Spreads**: Cross - variety price spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are presented, including their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2] Precious Metals Futures - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices of gold and silver are provided, including their changes and percentage changes. For example, the AU2512 contract closed at 917.80 yuan/g on November 6, with a 0.61% increase [4] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of London gold, London silver, etc., are presented, including their changes and percentage changes [4] - **Basis**: The basis of gold and silver, such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, is provided, along with its changes and historical quantiles [4] - **Ratios**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver, SHFE gold/silver are presented, including their values and changes [4] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Values, changes, and percentage changes of 10 - year US Treasury yields, 2 - year US Treasury yields, etc., are provided [4] - **Inventory and Positions**: Inventory and position data of gold and silver in SHFE, COMEX, etc., are presented, including their changes and percentage changes [4] Container Shipping Futures - **Index Data**: SCFIS (European and US West routes), SCFI comprehensive index, etc., are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [6] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC2602, EC2512 (main contract), etc., and the basis of the main contract are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes [6] - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rates, port calls, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators are provided, including their changes and percentage changes [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 7, 2025, the report presents a daily tracking of stock index futures positions, including the overall position changes and the position changes of the top 20 seats of IF, IH, IC, and IM [1][4][10][16][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF - **Overall Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 6, the total position of the IF variety decreased by 5,389 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 1,516 lots [4] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IF variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 39,706 lots. Haitong Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 583 lots intraday; CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 1,063 lots intraday [5] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 43,488 lots. Zhongtai Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 502 lots intraday; Dongzheng Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 1,084 lots intraday [7] IH - **Overall Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 6, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 744 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 181 lots [10] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 13,266 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 1,222 lots intraday; CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 679 lots intraday [10] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IH variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 14,091 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 1,276 lots intraday; CITIC Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 788 lots intraday [11] IC - **Overall Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 6, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 6,940 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 2,634 lots [17] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 36,281 lots. Huatai Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 121 lots intraday; CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 1,650 lots intraday [18] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 41,279 lots. Guotou Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 424 lots intraday; CITIC Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 1,304 lots intraday [20] IM - **Overall Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 6, the total position of the IM variety decreased by 16,297 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 12,668 lots [23] - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IM variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 48,278 lots. GF Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 76 lots intraday; CITIC Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 4,735 lots intraday [23] - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 69,815 lots. J.P. Morgan had the most short - position increase, adding 302 lots intraday; CITIC Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 4,298 lots intraday [25]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [3] - Report Title: Daily Spread Report for All Varieties [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, and GF Futures Research Institute [4] Core Viewpoints - The report presents the basis, spot prices, futures prices, basis rates, and historical quantiles of various commodities and financial instruments, including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, energy and chemical products, and financial derivatives. It provides a comprehensive snapshot of the market conditions for these products on the reporting date [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF601)**: The basis is - 8, the spot price is 5578, the futures price is 5586, and the basis rate is - 0.14%. The historical quantile is 55.70% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The basis is 92, the spot price is 5798, the futures price is 5890, and the basis rate is 1.59%. The historical quantile is 42.70% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The basis is 14, the spot price (HRB400 20mm in Shanghai) is 3037, the futures price is 3190, and the basis rate is 0.43%. The historical quantile is 23.40% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The basis is not clearly presented, the spot price is not detailed, and the futures price is 3256 [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The basis is - 44, the spot price (62.5% Brazilian mixed powder at Rizhao Port) is 1777, the futures price is 1732, and the basis rate is - 2.49%. The historical quantile is 50.80% [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: The basis is - 44, the spot price (quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port) is 1777, the futures price is 1732, and the basis rate is - 2.49%. The historical quantile is 41.48% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The basis is 83, the spot price (S1.3 G75 main coking coal at Shaheyi) is 1291, the futures price is 1373, and the basis rate is 6.39%. The historical quantile is 46.80% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2512)**: The basis is - 325, the spot price (SMM cathode copper average price) is 85995, the futures price is 86320, and the basis rate is - 0.38%. The historical quantile is 18.54% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2601)**: The basis is - 270, the spot price (SMM A00 aluminum average price) is 21360, the futures price is 21630, and the basis rate is - 1.25%. The historical quantile is 2.08% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The basis is - 74, the spot price (SMM alumina index average price) is 2787, the futures price is 2861, and the basis rate is - 2.66%. The historical quantile is 46.25% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2512)**: The basis is - 245, the spot price (SMM 1 zinc ingot average price) is 22430, the futures price is 22675, and the basis rate is - 1.08%. The historical quantile is 7.50% [1]. - **Tin (SN2512)**: The basis is - 620, the spot price (SMM 1 tin average price) is 282800, the futures price is 283420, and the basis rate is - 0.22%. The historical quantile is 30.62% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2512)**: The basis is - 275, the spot price (SMM 1 imported nickel average price) is 119475, the futures price is 119750, and the basis rate is - 0.23%. The historical quantile is 39.58% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2512)**: The basis is 380, the spot price (304/2B at Wuxi Hongwang) is 12590, the futures price is 12970, and the basis rate is 3.02%. The historical quantile is 74.46% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The basis is 162, the spot price (Jiangsu Zhangjiagang ordinary protein soybean meal) is 3068, the futures price is 3000, and the basis rate is 5.40%. The historical quantile is 26.50% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (V2601)**: The basis is 34, the spot price (Jiangsu Zhangjiagang fourth - grade soybean oil) is 8350, the futures price is 8188, and the basis rate is 0.42%. The historical quantile is 34.80% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The basis is - 112, the spot price (delivery price at Huangpu Port) is 8620, the futures price is 8732, and the basis rate is - 1.28%. The historical quantile is 4.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The basis is 101, the spot price (Guangdong Zhanjiang ordinary rapeseed meal) is 2650, the futures price is 2549, and the basis rate is 3.96%. The historical quantile is 64.20% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: The basis is 286, the spot price (Jiangsu Nantong fourth - grade rapeseed oil) is 9850, the futures price is 9564, and the basis rate is 2.99%. The historical quantile is 79.60% [1]. - **Corn (C2601)**: The basis is - 4, the spot price (FOB price at Jinzhou Port) is 2150, the futures price is 2154, and the basis rate is - 0.19%. The historical quantile is 38.40% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: The basis is 81, the spot price (Jilin Changchun corn starch) is 2550, the futures price is 2469, and the basis rate is 3.28%. The historical quantile is 37.30% [1]. - **Live Hogs (LH2601)**: The basis is - 90, the spot price (Henan outer - ternary live hogs) is 11940, the futures price is 11850, and the basis rate is - 0.75%. The historical quantile is 41.40% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2512)**: The basis is - 497, the spot price (Hebei Shijiazhuang average price) is 2730, the futures price is 3227, and the basis rate is - 15.40%. The historical quantile is 7.10% [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: The basis is 1013, the spot price (Xinjiang 3128B cotton) is 13605, the futures price is 14618, and the basis rate is 7.45%. The historical quantile is 59.60% [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: The basis is 272, the spot price (Liuzhou station white sugar) is 5720, the futures price is 5448, and the basis rate is 4.99%. The historical quantile is 45.00% [1]. - **Apples (AP601)**: The basis is - 79, the spot price (delivery theoretical price) is 8919, the futures price is 8840, and the basis rate is - 0.89%. The historical quantile is 15.70% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: The basis is - 705, the spot price (Hebei first - grade gray dates) is 9705, the futures price is 9000, and the basis rate is - 7.26%. The historical quantile is 63.80% [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Paraxylene (PX601)**: The basis is - 40, the spot price (CFR price at Chinese main ports) is 6780, the futures price is 6820, and the basis rate is - 0.58%. The historical quantile is 12.00% [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: The basis is - 148, the spot price (market price in East China) is 4540, the futures price is 4688, and the basis rate is - 3.16%. The historical quantile is 20.00% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The basis is - 76, the spot price (market price in East China) is 3924, the futures price is 4000, and the basis rate is - 1.90%. The historical quantile is 75.00% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF2512)**: The basis is 81, the spot price (market price in East China) is 6325, the futures price is 6244, and the basis rate is 1.29%. The historical quantile is 74.20% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2512)**: The basis is 0, the spot price (market price in East China) is 6300, the futures price is 6300, and the basis rate is 0%. The historical quantile is 4.75% [1]. - **Methanol (MA601)**: The basis is - 43, the spot price (market price in Jiangsu Taicang) is 2082, the futures price is 2125, and the basis rate is - 2.02%. The historical quantile is 54.50% [1]. - **Urea (UR601)**: The basis is - 64, the spot price (market price in Shandong) is 1580, the futures price is 1644, and the basis rate is - 3.89%. The historical quantile is 5.60% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The basis is 70, the spot price (self - pick - up price in Shandong) is 6805, the futures price is 6875, and the basis rate is 1.02%. The historical quantile is 57.60% [1]. - **PP (PP2601)**: The basis is 29, the spot price (self - pick - up price in Zhejiang) is 6500, the futures price is 6471, and the basis rate is 0.45%. The historical quantile is 49.00% [1]. - **PVC (V2601)**: The basis is - 110, the spot price (market price in Changzhou) is 4520, the futures price is 4630, and the basis rate is - 2.38%. The historical quantile is 33.00% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The basis is 157, the spot price (market price in Shandong) is 2500, the futures price is 2343, and the basis rate is 6.69%. The historical quantile is 70.70% [1]. - **LPG (PG2512)**: The basis is 183, the spot price (market price in Guangzhou) is 4448, the futures price is 4265, and the basis rate is 4.29%. The historical quantile is 48.10% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: The basis is 9, the spot price (market price in Shandong) is 3100, the futures price is 3109, and the basis rate is 0.29%. The historical quantile is 93.40% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2601)**: The basis is - 105, the spot price (China National Petroleum Corporation East China) is 10305, the futures price is 10200, and the basis rate is - 1.02%. The historical quantile is 62.20% [1]. - **Float Glass (FG601)**: The basis is - 53, the spot price (market price in Shahe) is 1101, the futures price is 1048, and the basis rate is - 4.81%. The historical quantile is 58.40% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The basis is - 50, the spot price (market price in Shahe) is 1207, the futures price is 1157, and the basis rate is - 4.14%. The historical quantile is 21.21% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The basis is - 695, the spot price (market price in Shanghai) is 14350, the futures price is 15045, and the basis rate is - 4.62%. The historical quantile is 54.69% [1]. Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2512.CFE**: The basis is - 22.6, the spot price is 4693.4, the futures price is 4670.8, and the basis rate is - 0.48%. The historical quantile is 20.30% [1]. - **IH2512.CFE**: The basis is - 3.3, the spot price is 3044.7, the futures price is 3041.4, and the basis rate is - 0.11%. The historical quantile is 39.80% [1]. - **IC2512.CFE**: The basis is - 99.3, the spot price is 7345.7, the futures price is 7246.4, and the basis rate is - 1.37%. The historical quantile is 3.30% [1]. - **IM2512.CFE**: The basis is - 146.8, the spot price is 7551.8, the futures price is 7405, and the basis rate is - 1.98%. The historical quantile is 11.00% [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **TS2512**: The basis is - 0.04, the spot price is 100.05, the futures price is 102.49, and the basis rate is - 0.04%. The historical quantile is 15.70% [1]. - **TF2512**: The basis is 0.08, the spot price is 108.55, the futures price is 105.96, and the basis rate is 0.08%. The historical quantile is 23.10% [1]. - **T2512**: The basis is 0.09, the spot price is 130.98, the futures price is 106.61, and the basis rate is 0.08%. The historical quantile is 26.30% [1]. - **TL2512**: The basis is 0.09, the spot price is 130.98, the futures price is 116.13

Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on coking coal, suggesting to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [9] Core Viewpoints - As of the afternoon close on November 6, coking coal showed a strong upward trend. The main coking coal contract JM2601 rose 2.38% (+30.0) to 1290.5, with a 15.64% (+174.5) increase from the previous stage low. The far - month contract J2605 also rose 1.66% (+22.0) to 1345.0. All coking coal contracts had varying degrees of increase [1] - The rise in coking coal futures is due to tight Mongolian coal resources, a decline in domestic coal mine开工, the third round of coke price increase, and winter storage demand [1][3][8] - Looking ahead, the coking coal market is expected to continue rising, and the supply - demand gap may widen further [8][9] Summary by Related Factors Mongolian Coal Resources - Mongolian coal supply has been tight. Since October, the daily average customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 21.3% compared to September. In November, although the customs clearance increased, the supply of main coking coal remained short [1] - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has been rising. As of November 5, it was 1170 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton from the post - National Day low and 465 yuan/ton from the year - low in mid - June. The coking coal futures were still at a discount, with potential for a catch - up increase [2] Domestic Coal Mine Production - Due to safety and environmental reasons, domestic coal mine开工 decreased this week. As of November 5, the capacity utilization rate of 523 sample mines was 83.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%. The daily production of raw coal was 186.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.0 tons [3] - By the end of this year, coal mine开工 may continue to operate at a low level. The recovery of coking coal production is limited, and there may be production cuts in December. The domestic coking coal supply remains tight [4] Coke Price Increase - On November 5, the third round of coke price increase was officially implemented. The price increase has repaired the profits of coking enterprises to some extent and provided an upward space for coking coal prices. Coke may have further price increase potential [8] Winter Storage Demand - In November, downstream coking enterprises and steel mills usually start winter storage. Although the iron - making water production has decreased, it is still at a relatively high level and may rebound. The demand - side support is strong, and winter storage demand will exacerbate the tight supply - demand situation of coking coal [8]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory accumulation inflection point, and with weak macro sentiment, rubber prices have further declined. If raw material supply in the main producing areas goes smoothly, there is room for further decline; if not, the rubber price is expected to run between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On November 5th, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,350 yuan, down 250 yuan (-1.71%) from the previous day. The all - milk basis decreased by 225 yuan (-81.82%), and the Thai standard mixed rubber quote dropped by 50 yuan (-0.35%) [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 yuan (-3.23%), the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan (-11.76%), and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 15 yuan (21.43%) [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's natural rubber production was 451.50 (unit not clear), down 26.00 (-5.45%); Indonesia's was 195.00, down 3.40 (-1.71%); India's was 81.70, up 2.70 (3.42%); and China's was 122.30, up 8.60. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires was 73.41, down 0.26, and that of all - steel tires was 65.34, down 0.24. In August, domestic tire production was 10,295.40 (in ten thousand pieces), up 9.10% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: As of November 5th, the bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 (3.57%), and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 2,015 (4.73%) [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For soda ash, the price is trending weakly, with obvious over - supply. The operation should be bearish. For glass, in the short - term, the market has support, and short - term long opportunities for low - level rebounds can be captured. In the long - term, the industry needs capacity clearance [3]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: On November 5th, the South China glass quote was 1,190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.83%); the glass 2601 contract was 1,097 yuan, down 8 yuan (-0.72%); and the 01 basis increased by 8 yuan (32.00%) [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The 01 - 4 spread of soda ash decreased by 6.0 yuan (-5.41%). The soda ash 2601 contract was 1,195 yuan, up 6.0 yuan (0.50%); and the 2605 contract was 1,282 yuan, up 2.0 yuan (0.17%) [3]. - **Supply**: In late October, the soda ash开工率 was 86.89%, down 1.72%, and the weekly output was 75.76 (in ten thousand tons), down 1.71%. The float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume was 88,540.00 tons, down 750.0 tons (-0.84%) [3]. - **Inventory**: As of late October, the glass factory - warehouse inventory was 6,579.00 (in ten thousand heavy boxes), up 4.72%; the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory was 170.20 (in ten thousand tons), up 2.54%; and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory was 67.69 (in ten thousand tons), down 3.18% [3]. - **Real Estate Data Month - on - Month**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the log futures market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The inverted price between the domestic and foreign markets provides some support for the import cost, limiting the downward space of the market [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: On November 5th, the log 2511 contract was 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.0 yuan (0.26%); the 11 - 01 spread decreased by 1.5 yuan. The price of 3.9A medium - sized radiata pine at Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 750 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - **Import Cost Calculation**: The import theoretical cost was 812.97 yuan, up 6.84 yuan (1%) [4]. - **Supply**: From November 3rd - 9th, 2025, 17 ships carrying New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 2 ships (13% week - on - week), with a total arrival volume of about 57.1 (in ten thousand cubic meters), an increase of 7.7 (in ten thousand cubic meters) (16% week - on - week) [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31st, the national coniferous log inventory was 288 (in ten thousand cubic meters), an increase of 4 (in ten thousand cubic meters) from the previous week. The daily average log delivery volume was 6.28 (in ten thousand cubic meters), an increase of 0.16 (in ten thousand cubic meters) [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to around 8,500 yuan/ton, long positions can be considered. Attention should be paid to the digestion of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of the November contracts [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On November 5th, the price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis (based on oxygen - permeable SI5530) decreased by 135 yuan (-23.89%) [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 25 yuan (-6.25%), and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan (-14.29%) [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In the month, the national industrial silicon production was 45.22 (in ten thousand tons), up 7.46%; Xinjiang's production was 23.56 (in ten thousand tons), up 15.94%; Yunnan's was 5.38 (in ten thousand tons), down 9.60%; and Sichuan's was 5.19 (in ten thousand tons), down 1.91%. The national开工率 was 61.94%, down 9.98% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: As of the reporting period, Xinjiang's inventory decreased by 0.03 (in ten thousand tons) (-0.28%), Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.05 (in ten thousand tons) (1.47%), and the social inventory decreased by 0.10 (in ten thousand tons) (-0.18%) [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In November, the supply pressure eases, but the demand also decreases, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. In terms of trading strategies, on the futures side, long positions can be taken when the price approaches the lower limit of the range; on the options side, put options around 50,000 can be sold to earn premiums; on the equity side, photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, and related stocks can be held [6]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On November 5th, the average price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock remained unchanged at 52,200.00 yuan/ton, and the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 360.00 yuan (23.76%) [6]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price was 53,352 yuan, down 360 yuan (-0.67%); the near - month - to - first - continuous spread decreased by 25 yuan (-1.15%) [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: Weekly, the silicon wafer production was 14.24 (unit not clear), down 3.33%, and the polysilicon production was 2.82 (in ten thousand tons), down 4.41%. Monthly, the polysilicon production was 13.40 (in ten thousand tons), up 3.08%, the import volume was 0.13 (in ten thousand tons), up 28.46%, and the export volume was 0.21 (in ten thousand tons), down 28.16% [6]. - **Inventory Change**: As of the reporting period, the polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (in ten thousand tons), up 1.16%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93 (unit not clear), up 2.49% [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - A-shares show strong resilience and stage a phased stabilization and rebound. After the quarterly reports, the A-share market is in a repricing adjustment, with trading sentiment cold and the direction unclear. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The overall market sentiment has improved. It is expected that the bond interest rate fluctuation range will generally decline. The short-term fluctuation range of the active 10-year treasury bond 250016.IB may be between 1.75% - 1.8%. The capital supply is loosening, and treasury bond futures are fluctuating narrowly. The restart of the central bank's treasury bond trading has strengthened the interest rate ceiling and the bottom of treasury bond futures. It is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [2]. - The short-term international gold price has stabilized at $3900 (¥900) and is mainly in a sideways consolidation trend, with an operating range of $3900 - $4030. Silver follows the gold price and fluctuates between $47 - $49 [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) EC main contract is oscillating upward. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [2]. - For the steel market, the iron element supply for the January contract is abundant. It is advisable to hold a long position in coking coal and a short position in hot-rolled coils. For iron ore, with shipping volume declining, arrivals increasing, port inventory rising, and pig iron production dropping significantly, the iron ore price has retreated after a surge. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore. For coking coal, the local coal price is strong, and the Mongolian coal price is firm. Although steel mills' production cuts are negative for restocking demand, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. For coke, with the third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises implemented and coking coal providing cost support, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [2]. - The strong US dollar index suppresses the copper price. The main contract should pay attention to the support level around 84000 and the resistance level around 86500. The aluminum price is restricted by fundamentals and has retreated after a surge. The main contract reference range is 20800 - 21600. The aluminum alloy price has weak spot trading at high prices and continuous tight raw material supply, with a main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000. The zinc price is oscillating at a high level due to concerns about the LME zinc squeeze, with a main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000. The tin price has declined due to macro negative factors, and it is recommended to hold existing long positions and go long on dips. The nickel price has little fundamental change and is under macro pressure, maintaining a weak oscillation, with a main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000. The stainless steel price is maintaining a weak operation, with the macro driving force weakening and fundamentals still under pressure, and the main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [2]. - For the chemical market, the PX rebound space is limited due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 6600 and try to narrow the PX - SC spread. The PTA rebound space is also limited for similar reasons. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 4600 and treat the TA1 - 5 spread as a rolling reverse arbitrage. The short - fiber price is under pressure to rebound due to limited cost support, with a similar strategy to PTA, and the disk processing fee is expected to oscillate between 800 - 1100, and it is advisable to narrow the spread on highs. The bottle - chip supply - demand pattern remains loose in November, and its price and processing fee follow the cost side. The strategy is similar to PTA, and the main contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton. The MEG supply is abundant, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, so it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not lower than 4100 and conduct a high - level reverse arbitrage for EG1 - 5. The caustic soda price is under pressure due to general downstream acceptance and weak spot trading, with a bearish view. The PVC market's supply - demand contradiction has not improved, and the disk is weakening, so it is recommended to short on rebounds. The benzene market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, low valuation, and limited price drivers, so BZ2603 should follow the oil price and be shorted on highs. The styrene market is expected to be in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to the device shutdown situation. The EB12 price should be shorted on rebounds. The LLDPE trading is okay, and the East China basis is strengthening, so attention should be paid to the inventory depletion inflection point. The PP trading has improved, and the basis is maintained, so it is recommended to wait and see. The methanol port basis is strengthening, and the trading is okay, so attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May. The synthetic rubber market is expected to be weak in oscillation, so it is recommended to short BR2601 on highs [2]. - In the agricultural product market, due to the State Council's decision on US tariffs, the internal and external markets have risen in tandem, and it is recommended to hold long positions in M2601 and RM601 cautiously. The pig market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the pig price is oscillating weakly, so it is recommended to hold a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage. The corn market still has supply pressure, and the disk rebound is limited, so attention should be paid to the pressure around 2160. The palm oil market has production growth according to MPOA, and the palm oil price is maintaining a weak operation, with the main contract possibly testing the support at 8500 yuan. The sugar market has a loose overseas supply, and the raw sugar price has dropped significantly, so a bearish trading strategy is recommended. The cotton market's new cotton cost is gradually fixed, and the price is oscillating between 13500 - 13800. The egg market is short - term strong but still has a loose supply, so attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity. The apple market's Shandong ground fruit price has declined, and the price is expected to adjust in the short term, with attention paid to the support at 8800 yuan. The jujube market's spot price has weakened, and the disk is oscillating weakly. The pure film market has a continuous surplus pattern, and the disk is under pressure and weakening, so a bearish view is maintained. The glass market's production line changes affect the disk, and attention should be paid to the continuous performance of spot sales, so attention should be paid to the spot side to capture short - term long opportunities. The rubber market has generally falling commodity prices, and the rubber price is continuing to weaken, so it is recommended to wait and see. The industrial silicon market is expected to rebound due to supply contraction, with the price oscillating between 8500 - 9500. The polysilicon market has stable spot prices, falling silicon wafers, and a rising futures premium, with the price oscillating between 50000 - 58000. The lithium carbonate market's disk is maintaining a weak oscillation, and the trading logic has changed, with a weak adjustment and the main contract reference range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan [2]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512: The market has a slight correction after reaching a high and fulfilling expectations, with volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. The A - share market shows strong resilience and a phased rebound. After the quarterly reports, the market is in a repricing adjustment, with cold trading sentiment and an unclear direction. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - T2512, TF2512, TS2512, TL2512: The overall market sentiment has improved. The bond interest rate fluctuation range is expected to decline. The short - term fluctuation range of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may be between 1.75% - 1.8%. The capital supply is loosening, and treasury bond futures are fluctuating narrowly. The restart of the central bank's treasury bond trading strengthens the interest rate ceiling and the bottom of treasury bond futures. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to go long on dips; for the cash - and - carry strategy, due to the rising IRR, positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [2]. Precious Metals - AU2512, AG2512: The short - term international gold price has stabilized at $3900 and is mainly in a sideways consolidation trend, with an operating range of $3900 - $4030. Silver follows the gold price and fluctuates between $47 - $49 [2]. Shipping Index - EC2512: The container shipping index (European line) EC main contract is oscillating upward. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [2]. Black Metals - RB2601: The iron element supply for the January contract is abundant. It is advisable to hold a long position in coking coal and a short position in hot - rolled coils [2]. - I2601: With shipping volume declining, arrivals increasing, port inventory rising, and pig iron production dropping significantly, the iron ore price has retreated after a surge. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore [2]. - JM2601: The local coal price is strong, and the Mongolian coal price is firm. Although steel mills' production cuts are negative for restocking demand, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [2]. - J2601: With the third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises implemented and coking coal providing cost support, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - CU2512: The strong US dollar index suppresses the copper price. The main contract should pay attention to the support level around 84000 and the resistance level around 86500 [2]. - AO2601: The aluminum price is restricted by fundamentals and has retreated after a surge. The main contract reference range is 20800 - 21600 [2]. - AL2512: The aluminum alloy price has weak spot trading at high prices and continuous tight raw material supply, with a main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 [2]. - ZN2512: The zinc price is oscillating at a high level due to concerns about the LME zinc squeeze, with a main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000 [2]. - SN2512: The tin price has declined due to macro negative factors, and it is recommended to hold existing long positions and go long on dips [2]. - NI2512: The nickel price has little fundamental change and is under macro pressure, maintaining a weak oscillation, with a main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 [2]. - SS2512: The stainless steel price is maintaining a weak operation, with the macro driving force weakening and fundamentals still under pressure, and the main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [2]. Chemicals - PX2601: The PX rebound space is limited due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 6600 and try to narrow the PX - SC spread [2]. - TA2601: The PTA rebound space is limited for similar reasons. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 4600 and treat the TA1 - 5 spread as a rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - PF2512: The short - fiber price is under pressure to rebound due to limited cost support, with a similar strategy to PTA, and the disk processing fee is expected to oscillate between 800 - 1100, and it is advisable to narrow the spread on highs [2]. - PR2601: The bottle - chip supply - demand pattern remains loose in November, and its price and processing fee follow the cost side. The strategy is similar to PTA, and the main contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton [2]. - EG2601: The MEG supply is abundant, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, so it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not lower than 4100 and conduct a high - level reverse arbitrage for EG1 - 5 [2]. - SH2601: The caustic soda price is under pressure due to general downstream acceptance and weak spot trading, with a bearish view [2]. - V2601: The PVC market's supply - demand contradiction has not improved, and the disk is weakening, so it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - BZ2603: The benzene market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, low valuation, and limited price drivers, so BZ2603 should follow the oil price and be shorted on highs [2]. - EB2511: The styrene market is expected to be in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to the device shutdown situation. The EB12 price should be shorted on rebounds [2]. - L2601: The LLDPE trading is okay, and the East China basis is strengthening, so attention should be paid to the inventory depletion inflection point [2]. - PP2601: The PP trading has improved, and the basis is maintained, so it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - MA2601: The methanol port basis is strengthening, and the trading is okay, so attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May [2]. - BR2512: The synthetic rubber market is expected to be weak in oscillation, so it is recommended to short BR2601 on highs [2]. Agricultural Products - M2601, RM601: Due to the State Council's decision on US tariffs, the internal and external markets have risen in tandem, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [2]. - LH2601: The pig market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the pig price is oscillating weakly, so it is recommended to hold a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [2]. - C2601: The corn market still has supply pressure, and the disk rebound is limited, so attention should be paid to the pressure around 2160 [2]. - P2601, Y2601: The palm oil market has production growth according to MPOA, and the palm oil price is maintaining a weak operation, with the main contract possibly testing the support at 8500 yuan [2]. - SR2601: The sugar market has a loose overseas supply, and the raw sugar price has dropped significantly, so a bearish trading strategy is recommended [2]. - CF2601: The cotton market's new cotton cost is gradually fixed, and the price is oscillating between 13500 - 13800 [2]. - JD2512: The egg market is short - term strong but still has a loose supply, so attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [2]. - AP2601: The apple market's Shandong ground fruit price has declined, and the price is expected to adjust in the short term, with attention paid to the support at 8800 yuan [2]. - CJ2601: The jujube market's spot price has weakened, and the disk is oscillating weakly [2]. - SA2601: The pure film market has a continuous surplus pattern, and the disk is under pressure and weakening, so a bearish view is maintained [2]. - FG2601: The glass market's production line changes affect the disk, and attention should be paid to the continuous performance of spot sales, so attention should be paid to the spot side to capture short - term long opportunities [2]. - RU2601: The rubber market has generally falling commodity prices, and the rubber price is continuing to weaken, so it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Si2601: The industrial silicon market is expected to rebound due to supply contraction, with the price oscillating between 8500 - 9500 [2].