然橡胶产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月12日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 2025年5月12日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | | 品种 | | 那位 | 前值 | 张庆 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | | 1220 | 1220 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | | 1370 | 1370 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | | 1170 | 1170 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | | 1320 | 1320 | 0 | 0.00% | アレ/14电 | | 玻璃2505 | | 1039 | 1045 | -6 | -0.57% | | | 玻璃2509 | | 1034 | 1057 | -23 | -2.18% | | | 05基 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 叶倩宁 2025年5月12日 | | | Z0016628 | | | 价差 品种 最新值 较前一日变化 历史1年分位数 | | | | 全历史分位数 | | F期现价差 -37.56 -0.66 | | 8.60% | | 7.80% | | -17.81 -3.10 期现价差 H期现价差 | | 14.70% | | 10.30% | | IC期验价套 -116.92 | -3.12 | 4.90% | | 2.10% | | IM期现价去 -136.88 | 2.40 | 85.00% | | 4.90% | | 次月-当月 -31.60 | -1.80 | 4.50% | | 11.00% | | 李月-当月 -96.60 | -6.20 | 0.40% | | 7.40% | | 元月-当月 -133.40 | -12.20 | 0.40% | | 10.50% | | IF跨期价差 -65.00 李月-次月 | -4.40 | 0.40% ...

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Title: Styrene Weekly Report - EB: Weak Supply-Demand Expectations, Focus on Raw Material Resonance Opportunities [1] - Core View: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium term under Trump's policy, suppressing the valuation of chemical products. Pure benzene's supply-demand situation shows short-term marginal improvement but still faces pressure, dragging down the styrene price. Styrene's downstream demand is weak, and the supply-demand balance is under pressure. In the medium term, the terminal pressure will gradually emerge due to tariff effects, and high-cost styrene may face resistance. [5] - Strategy Suggestion: Maintain a short position on styrene, with the upper resistance level for the near-month contract at 7300. Sell the EB2506-C-8000 option. [6] Group 2: Pure Benzene 2025 Production Plan - Multiple companies in various provinces have plans to expand pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream production capacities in 2025, including Shandong Yulong Petrochemical, ExxonMobil in Guangdong, etc. [8] March - May 2025 Device Dynamics - Many pure benzene production devices are scheduled for maintenance from March to May 2025, resulting in a net reduction in supply and demand during this period, with a slight inventory drawdown. [10][11] Supply, Inventory, and Price - From January to April this year, the cumulative pure benzene production was 718.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.11%. As of May 9, the capacity utilization rate was 73.25%, and the weekly production was 401,600 tons. The port inventory remained at 120,000 tons without significant change. [45] - South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China have remained at a high level, and the inventory drawdown has been slow due to high production and imports. [28][34] Downstream Situation - The weighted average operating rate of pure benzene downstream industries has rebounded recently with the restart of styrene devices. However, the overall profit is weak, with adipic acid and caprolactam still experiencing significant losses, and styrene's profit has improved but remains below the break-even point. [46][57] Group 3: Styrene Futures and Spot Market - The spot price and basis of styrene show certain fluctuations, and the monthly spread and registered warehouse receipts also have corresponding changes. [63] Supply and Profit - The monthly and weekly production of styrene and the operating rate show upward trends in general. The non-integrated and integrated profits of styrene and the styrene-pure benzene spread also fluctuate. [68][71][72] Import and Export - With the shutdown of multiple styrene devices in Asia, China has gradually shifted from a net importer to a net exporter of styrene in the past five years, and exports have continued from April to May. [80] Inventory - The port inventory of styrene has continued to decline, with relatively limited year-on-year pressure, while the factory inventory is under pressure. [81] Downstream Situation - The high capacity growth rate of 3S (PS, EPS, ABS) has intensified competition, and the high production has supported the demand for styrene. However, the industry is facing profit compression, and the current downstream is characterized by low profit and high inventory, indicating limited terminal demand. [86][90] - The prices of 3S products have weakened, but the estimated profit has strengthened due to the significant fluctuations in styrene prices. [91] - The high production of 3S has led to a significant increase in inventory, indicating resistance in demand transmission, and the support for styrene demand may weaken marginally. [96][99] Terminal Market - After the implementation of tariffs, exports are likely to be restricted, and domestic demand depends on subsidy policies. The domestic and export sales of home appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines show certain trends. [100]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. It shows the changes in total positions, main contract positions, and the important changes in the top 20 seats for each type of futures [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On May 9, the total position of the IF variety decreased by 14,070 lots, and the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 7,201 lots [4]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IF variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 41,985 lots. Huatai Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 323 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 4,103 lots [5]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 49,581 lots. Huatai Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 360 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 3,731 lots [7]. IH (SSE 50) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On May 9, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 7,002 lots, and the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 4,106 lots [10]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 10,214 lots. Hongyuan Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 125 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 1,688 lots [11]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 12,709 lots. Galaxy Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 242 lots, while Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 1,468 lots [12]. IC (CSI 500) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On May 9, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 524 lots, while the position of the main contract 2506 increased by 520 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 34,365 lots. Huatai Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 754 lots, while Dongzheng Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 992 lots [16]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 37,720 lots. Haitong Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 819 lots, while Guoxin Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 430 lots [17]. IM (CSI 1000) - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On May 9, the total position of the IM variety increased by 2,401 lots, while the position of the main contract 2506 decreased by 6 lots [21]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IM variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 44,730 lots. Haitong Futures had the most long - position increase, adding 873 lots, while Dongzheng Futures had the most long - position decrease, reducing 292 lots [21]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 61,741 lots. Haitong Futures had the most short - position increase, adding 1,491 lots, while Galaxy Futures had the most short - position decrease, reducing 858 lots [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For ferrosilicon, the short - term supply - demand contradiction has eased. The cost - side electricity price change needs further tracking, and the semi - coke price has temporarily stabilized. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5300 - 5650 in the long - term and 5500 - 5900 in the short - term [4][8]. - For silicomanganese, the short - term price will continue to oscillate at the bottom. The bottom support of the futures price is strengthening as the increase of warehouse receipts stops and turns down. The supply - demand gap continues to narrow, and the manganese ore on the cost side is also gradually stabilizing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the rebound height depends on whether there are macro - level benefits. The main contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5600 - 5900, and the short - term reference range is 5700 - 6000 [4][114]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferrosilicon 3.1.1 Valuation - This week, the main ferrosilicon contract fell 1.54% (- 86) and closed at 5482 yuan/ton. The prices in major producing areas and quotations from manufacturers and trading areas also showed varying degrees of decline [8]. 3.1.2 Supply - The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 32.53%, an increase of 1.79% from the previous period. The daily output was 14,700 tons, an increase of 550 tons from the previous period, and the weekly supply was 102,900 tons [8][31]. 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - The immediate production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5681 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 231 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, the cost was 5460 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 110 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.4 Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 20,336.3 tons, a decrease of 2.00% from last week. The non - steel demand for magnesium metal was strong, but the downstream procurement was still cautious [8]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of May 8, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 73,700 tons, a decrease of 11.83% from the previous period [8]. 3.2 Silicomanganese 3.2.1 Futures and Spot - This week, the main silicomanganese contract rose 0.7% (+ 40) and closed at 5758 yuan/ton. The prices in major producing areas and trading areas showed different changes [114]. 3.2.2 Supply - The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 37.53%, a decrease of 3.21% from last week. The daily output was 24,575 tons, a decrease of 1540 tons, and the weekly output was 172,025 tons, a decrease of 5.90% from last week [114]. 3.2.3 Cost and Profit - The cost in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 229 yuan/ton; the production cost in Guangxi was 6348 yuan/ton [114]. 3.2.4 Manganese Ore Supply - The global shipment of South African manganese ore increased by 40.06% week - on - week, while the shipments of Australian and Gabonese manganese ore decreased. The arrival volume of manganese ore from different sources also changed [114]. 3.2.5 Manganese Ore Inventory - As of April 30, the manganese ore inventory in major Chinese ports was 3671,000 tons, a decrease of 384,000 tons from the previous period [114]. 3.2.6 Demand - The weekly demand for silicomanganese from five major steel types was 125,861 tons, a decrease of 1.83% from last week. The daily average pig iron output, blast furnace operating rate, blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate, and steel mill profitability all showed certain changes [114]. 3.2.7 Inventory - As of May 8, the national inventory was 207,100 tons, an increase of 25,300 tons from the previous period, with different changes in different regions [114].

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月9日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3200 | 3220 | -20 | 126 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | -10 | 126 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3300 | 3320 | -20 | 226 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2991 | 3048 | -57 | 209 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3052 | 3098 | -46 | 148 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3074 | 3156 | -52 | 126 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3250 | 3270 | -20 | 50 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3200 | 3220 | -20 | 0 | | | 热卷现 ...

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月9日 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月8日 | 5月7日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 780.0 | 792.5 | -12.5 | -1.58% | | | 原木2509 | 794.5 | 803.0 | -8.5 | -1.06% | | | 原木2511 | 800.5 | 808.0 | -7.5 | -0.93% | | | 7-9价差 | -14.5 | -10.5 | -4.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -6.0 | -5.0 | -1.0 | | | | 7-11价差 | -20.5 | -15.5 | -5.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -20.0 | -32.5 | 12.5 | | | | 09合约基差 | -34.5 | -43.0 | 8.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 11合约基差 | -40.5 | -48.0 | 7.5 | | | | 日 ...

| 锌产业期现日报 | | --- | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月9日 星期五 FE Z0015979 | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 0#锌锭 | 22850 | 22770 | +80.00 | 0.35% | 元/吨 | | 升贴水 | 500 | 85 | +415.00 | / | 元/吨 | | SMM 0#锌锭 (广东) | 22850 | 22770 | +80.00 | 0.35% | 元/吨 | | 升贴水(广东) | 500 | ਦਾ ਦ | -15.00 | / | 元/吨 | | 比价和盈亏 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | 629 | 713 | -84.78 | | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.68 | 8.67 | +0.01 | | / | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | ...

| 业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年5月9日 | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | | | | | | | | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | 5月8日 | 5月7日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | 中村 | | | | | | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 0150 | 9200 | -50 | -0.54% | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 860 | 875 | -1.71% | -15 | | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 10100 | -0.50% | 10050 | - 50 | 元/吨 | 基差(SI4210基准) | 975 | 960 | -15 | -1.54% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8450 | 8550 | -100 | -1.17% | 基差(新疆) | 960 | 1025 | -65 | -6.34% | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil futures may rebound to 3900 - 4000 ringgit, and Dalian palm oil futures may stop falling and rebound around 7800 yuan. US soybean oil demand may be poor, and domestic soybean arrivals will increase, making factory soybean oil supply shift from tight to loose, with a long - term bearish outlook [1]. Meal - US soybeans are in a shock range, with no weather - related speculation currently. Brazilian supply pressure continues, and domestic soybean arrivals are abundant. Domestic supply is expected to recover, and attention should be paid to the support around 2900 [2]. Live Pigs - Spot prices are stable, with little change in supply - demand. Fat - standard price difference is narrowing, and the pressure on fat pigs is increasing. Pig prices are expected to remain in a shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the performance of second - round fattening and slaughter [5][6]. Corn - Market supply is tight, and spot prices are strong. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and port inventories need to be digested. In the long - term, corn prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, they may be under pressure [8]. Sugar - Supply concerns are alleviated. Brazilian and Indian sugar production is expected to increase. Domestic supply - demand is loosening, and sugar prices are expected to be in a weak shock pattern after the festival [12]. Cotton - In the short - term, macro factors dominate the market, and there may be large fluctuations. Downstream demand is slightly weakening, and domestic cotton prices may show a shock trend [13]. Eggs - In May, demand may support egg prices to remain high and stable. In June, the contradiction of supply exceeding demand may peak, dragging down egg prices. 06 and 07 contracts' previous high - position short orders can be closed at low prices [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: Soybean oil spot and futures prices are stable, palm oil spot and futures prices decline slightly, and rapeseed oil spot and futures prices rise slightly. There are also changes in various spreads [1]. - **Inventory**: Soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories change, and palm oil inventory remains the same [1]. Meal - **Prices**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot and futures prices have minor changes, and soybean prices also show different trends. There are changes in various spreads and oil - meal ratios [2]. - **Inventory**: Inventories of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans change to different extents [2]. Live Pigs - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts decline slightly, and the position of the main contract increases [5]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions are stable or have minor changes, and various spot indicators also show different trends [5]. Corn - **Corn**: Futures prices decline slightly, spot prices are stable, and indicators such as basis, spreads, and inventories change [8]. - **Corn Starch**: Futures prices decline, spot prices rise, and indicators such as basis, spreads, and inventories change [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts decline, and ICE raw sugar prices rise. There are changes in spreads, positions, and inventories [12]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions decline, and import sugar prices also change. There are changes in production, sales, and inventories [12]. Cotton - **Futures**: Futures prices of different contracts are stable or have minor changes, and ICE US cotton prices decline. There are changes in spreads, positions, and inventories [13]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in different regions have minor changes, and various indicators such as spreads and import prices change [13]. Eggs - **Prices**: Futures prices of different contracts have minor changes, and spot prices in different regions decline slightly. There are changes in basis, spreads, and other prices [15]. - **Related Indicators**: Prices of egg - laying chicken seedlings, culled chickens, and other related indicators change [15].