Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For LLDPE, the spot price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly upward trend. In the short - term, there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to oscillate mainly [2]. - For PP, the spot price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly downward trend. In the short - term, there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to oscillate mainly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory LLDPE Analysis - **Supply**: This week, China's LLDPE production was 318,900 tons, up 3.21% from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 83.95%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points from the previous period. There were no new maintenance devices this week, and some existing devices restarted [2]. - **Demand**: The average operating rate of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE downstream products increased by 1.64% from the previous period. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 8.9816 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.84%. In August, China's polyethylene imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 488,600 tons, up 27.67% from the previous period. The inventory trend changed from decreasing to increasing. The social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 546,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.44% [2]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 315, and the futures price is at a discount [2]. - **Profit**: This week, the cost of ethane production increased, while the costs of oil - based, coal - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based production decreased. International oil prices fell due to the easing of the Palestine - Israel situation and potential risks from US tariff issues [2]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has subsided, trading has returned to fundamentals, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly upward trend [2]. PP Analysis - **Supply**: The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 77.75%, a month - on - month increase of 1.14%. The average capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 79.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% [3]. - **Demand**: The operating rate increased by 0.59 percentage points to 51.45%. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the demand for terminal food packaging and medical non - woven fabrics increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 681,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.96%. The port sample inventory and the inventory of trading companies also increased [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 12, and the futures price is around par [3]. - **Profit**: This week, the profits of external propylene - based and PDH - based PP production improved, while the profits of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based PP production declined. International oil prices rose, and the price of thermal coal remained strong [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price and the absolute futures price are neutral, and the near - month contract is at a premium [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The macro - sentiment has subsided, trading has returned to fundamentals, and the futures market is oscillating with a slightly downward trend [3]. Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price decreased by 1.90%, PE futures price decreased by 1.62%, PP spot price decreased by 2.61%, and LLDPE spot price decreased by 0.69% [5]. - **Production**: PP production decreased by 7.25%, PE production increased by 3.04%, HDPE production increased by 1.45% [5]. - **Operating Rates**: PP operating rate increased by 5.40%, PE operating rate increased by 2.26% [5]. - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory increased by 52.16%, PE social inventory decreased by 4.63% [5].

Report Summary 1. Core View - Short - term, contract 001 may rebound due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, but the rebound height is limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic bean meal inventory. Later, attention should be paid to Sino - US policies, South American La Nina weather speculation, and US soybean yield adjustments [7]. 2. Summary by Related Content Supply - Affected by less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas after August, the estimated 2025/26 US soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre by USDA still has room for downward adjustment. The recent less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas is conducive to the harvest, but the USDA crop growth report is delayed due to the US government shutdown. As of October 5, the US soybean harvest progress is 38%. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and as of October 4, the sowing rate is 8.2%, higher than 5.1% last year and close to the five - year average of 9.4%. In October, domestic soybean inventory is expected to start decreasing, but the domestic bean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the bean meal supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source is uncertain [6]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in deficit, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Bean meal has high cost - performance and high feed addition ratio, and the downstream spot trading is good [7]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level. This week, the bean meal inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased and is at a high level, while the bean meal inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [7]. Macro and Policy - The Ministry of Transport announced that starting from October 14, a special ship selection fee will be charged for US ships, which is expected to increase the cost of some soybean imports and ocean freight. Trump announced that starting from November 1, 2025, a 100% tariff will be imposed on Chinese imported goods, escalating the Sino - US trade tension [7]. 3. Data Summary Basis Data - On October 10, the basis of 43% bean meal spot in Dalian was 108, in Tianjin was 78 (up 17), in Rizhao was 8 (down 3), in Zhangjiagang was - 2 (down 3), in Dongguan was - 2 (up 7), in Zhanjiang was 38, and in Fangcheng was 18 (down 3). The basis of rapeseed meal spot at noon was 186, and MJ - 5 was 168 (down 16) [4]. Spread Data - The spot spread of bean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 320 (down 10), and the spread of the main contract was 27 [5]. Other Data - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium in 2025, the domestic soybean inventory, oil mill bean meal inventory, feed enterprise bean meal inventory days, oil mill startup rate, and soybean crushing volume data are presented in the form of charts, but specific data values are not clearly summarized in the text [5].

Report Title - [New Energy Weekly Report] [1] Report Information - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Institution: Guomao Futures Nonferrous Metals Research Center [2] - Analysts: Fang Fuqiang, Xie Ling [2] - Assistant Analyst: Chen Yusen [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. The polysilicon market has an "anti - involution" policy framework, and the fundamentals may improve in the medium to long term, but prices may fluctuate in the short term. The lithium carbonate market has strong terminal demand, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch [8][9][86] Summary by Directory 1. Nonferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: The report monitors the closing prices of various nonferrous metals and new energy products, including the US dollar index, exchange rates, and prices of industrial silicon, copper, aluminum, etc. For example, the current value of industrial silicon is 8,685 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%, a weekly decrease of 3.07%, and an annual decrease of 20.94% [6] 2. Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 95,500 tons, a decrease of 0.81% from the previous week. The number of open furnaces is 313, an increase of 3 from the previous week. September production was 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase from the previous month and a 7.33% decrease from the same period last year. October production is planned to be 456,600 tons, an 8.52% increase from the previous month and a 2.84% decrease from the same period last year [8] - **Demand**: Polysilicon weekly production is 32,000 tons, a 1.33% increase from the previous week. Organic silicon DMC weekly production is 47,600 tons, a 1.04% decrease from the previous week [8] - **Inventory**: The visible inventory is 693,900 tons, a 0.86% decrease from the previous week, with year - on - year growth of 23.18%. The industry inventory is 442,500 tons, a 0.56% decrease from the previous week [8] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,087 yuan, a 0.07% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 133 yuan, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous week [8] - **Investment View**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increase, and the price may fluctuate [8] Polysilicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 31,300 tons, a 0.32% increase from the previous week. August production was 131,700 tons, a 23.31% increase from the previous month and a 2.41% increase from the same period last year. September production is planned to be 126,700 tons, a 3.80% decrease from the previous month and a 2.69% decrease from the same period last year [9] - **Demand**: Silicon wafer weekly production is 13.65GW, a 0.27% decrease from the previous week. The factory inventory is 16.60GW, a 0.45% increase from the previous week [9] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 25,390 tons, a 4.83% increase from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 24,420 tons, a 3.30% increase from the previous week [9] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,543 yuan, remaining the same as the previous week, and the profit per ton is 9,057 yuan, remaining the same as the previous week [9] - **Investment View**: The "capacity reduction + sales at no less than cost price" policy framework may improve the fundamentals of polysilicon in the medium to long term. Due to the long - term non - implementation of "anti - involution", market sentiment has subsided, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [9] 3. Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 20,600 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. September production was 87,300 tons, a 2.37% increase from the previous month and a 52.00% increase from the same period last year. October production is planned to be about 90,000 tons, a 3.09% increase from the previous month and a 50.78% increase from the same period last year [86] - **Import**: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 tons, a 57.79% increase from the previous month and a 23.54% increase from the same period last year. In September, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,100 tons, a 14.49% decrease from the previous month and a 33.13% decrease from the same period last year [86] - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 78,100 tons, a 0.04% decrease from the previous week. The weekly production of ternary materials is 18,800 tons, a 0.48% increase from the previous week [86] - **Terminal Demand**: In August, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.391 million, a 11.91% increase from the previous month and a 27.40% increase from the same period last year; the sales volume was 1.3953 million, a 10.55% increase from the previous month and a 26.84% increase from the same period last year. From January to August, the cumulative winning bid power of domestic energy storage was 41.09GW/111.43GWh, a 20.71%/53.55% increase from the same period last year [86] - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 134,800 tons, a 1.48% decrease from the previous week. The lithium salt factory inventory is 34,700 tons, a 4.85% decrease from the previous week [86] - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external purchase is 77,806 yuan/ton, a 1.17% decrease from the previous week; the production profit is - 7,315 yuan/ton, an increase of 727 yuan/ton from the previous week [86] - **Investment View**: In the short term, there may be a supply - demand mismatch, pushing up prices. In the medium to long term, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and capacity clearance is still awaited [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - CP prices have significantly decreased, and the China-US trade friction has flared up again. The LPG market is currently affected by multiple factors, with short - term prices expected to move downward. The overall investment view is oscillating bearish, and it is recommended to temporarily hold off on unilateral trading and consider arbitrage strategies such as going long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, as well as going long on PP2601 and short on PG2601 [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last Friday, the national LPG valuation was 4,428 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. During the National Day holiday, due to factors such as poor logistics, an unexpected decline in Saudi CP in October, and sufficient import arrivals, the LPG price dropped. After the holiday, the downward trend continued, with a general trading atmosphere and no large - scale replenishment [6] 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about [X] tons, including [X] tons of civil gas, [X] tons of industrial gas, and [X] tons of ether - after C4. The LPG arrival volume was [X] tons. In addition, in the South China region, some manufacturers increased the supply due to the transformation of raw materials from self - use to external sales, and in the North China region, some manufacturers resumed production, leading to an increase in civil gas supply [4] 3.3 Demand - The LPG combustion demand is in the off - season as the National Day combustion period has ended and the winter heating season has not yet arrived. In the C4 deep - processing sector, the demand for ether - after C4 has increased due to the start - up of some devices. However, the demand for refined oil during the holiday was average, and the gasoline and diesel markets are expected to weaken due to new energy substitution. In the C3 deep - processing sector, the demand for propane and butane is stable, and the profit of PDH enterprises has improved in the short - term, delaying maintenance plans, but the terminal demand is expected to return to weakness after the terminal price adjustment [4] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was [X] tons, and the port inventory was [X] tons. The domestic LPG market storage capacity utilization rate continued to rise. Affected by the CP decline, the market trading atmosphere weakened, and due to factors such as reduced transportation capacity during the holiday, manufacturers faced difficulties in shipping, leading to an increase in storage capacity data. At ports, the inventory gradually accumulated due to high arrival volumes, fluctuating chemical demand, and shipping restrictions [4] 3.5 Basis, Position - The weekly average basis in East China was [X] yuan/ton, in South China was [X] yuan/ton, and in Shandong was [X] yuan/ton. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume increased by [X] lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were [X]%, [X]%, and [X]% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were [X] yuan/ton, [X] yuan/ton, and [X] yuan/ton respectively [4] 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was [X], and the PG continuous first - continuous second monthly spread was [X] yuan/ton. The crude oil production has been increasing continuously, the CP has declined, and due to the tariff friction, the PG - SC cracking spread has fluctuated widely [4] 3.8 Other Factors - In November, OPEC+ will continue to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, which is lower than market expectations. The geopolitical premium has subsided, leading to a downward shift in the price center. The US government has been in a shutdown state, and on October 10, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China. China has countered the US 301 policy by imposing additional port storage fees on US - owned or operated ships [4] 3.9 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - The report provides the 2025 maintenance plans for Chinese major refineries, local refineries, LPG factories, and PDH devices, including information such as the refinery name, location, processing capacity, maintenance device, maintenance capacity, start time, and end time [10][12] 3.10 Market Price and Spread - The report presents the prices, price changes, and spreads of various energy and chemical products, including LPG, as well as the price trends and spreads of LPG in different regions, months, and varieties [2][8][9] 3.11 Research Center Introduction - The Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures has a team of 6 members with professional backgrounds in finance, statistics, and chemical engineering. The team members have rich experience in industrial fundamentals and futures - spot research in the energy and chemical sector, and have won many awards from exchanges and media [132]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【甲醇周报（MA）】 港口库存高位，需求疲软 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-13 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 甲醇：港口库存高位，需求疲软 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 本周国内甲醇供给呈增加态势。装置检修恢复量多于损失量，产能利用率上升；周产量、总供应量环比增长。进口资源充足，进口量环比大幅增加，且港口因内外轮卸船等因 | | | | 素库存累积，整体供给端压力有所显现。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 节后传统下游备货节奏放缓，部分内地烯烃装置重启，需求逐步恢复。但节前下游备货因国庆假期早早收尾，节后企业新签订单有限，待发订单大幅减少。MTO 消费量小幅增 | | | | 加，总消费量环比增长，不过需求增量整体小于供应端增量，供需格局仍偏宽松。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 本周甲醇库存呈分化态势。港口库存因节后内外轮显性卸货量计入 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 中美贸易摩擦再升级，贵金属或延续偏强运行 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-10-13 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 | ◆ 上周黄金白银冲高回落，但周线仍大幅上涨。主要影响因素分析如下：国庆假期，因美国联 | | 黄金相关数据指标跟踪 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上一期 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | | 邦政府时隔7年再度"停摆"、法国日本政治不确定提升等大幅提升市场避险情绪，与此同时，美 | | | | | | | | | 伦敦现货黄金 | 美元/盎司 | 4017.845 | 3885.660 | 132.185 | 3.40% | | 国9月ADP数据不及预期和市场担忧美国政府停摆将增加经济走弱风险，强化美联储10月降息预期， | 沪金主力 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The polyester market is expected to run weakly as the polyester peak season is ending and the crude oil fundamentals are declining [2]. - PTA is experiencing intensified gaming, with emotions and fundamentals resonating, and a significant drop in crude oil prices. The PX market has few transactions, and polyester downstream procurement stagnated during the holidays [2]. - The ethylene glycol price is under continuous pressure due to low port inventories, limited arrivals, expected decline in overseas imports, and domestic device production [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil prices dropped from 471.0 yuan/barrel on 2025/10/9 to 461.9 yuan/barrel on 2025/10/10, a decrease of 9.10 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC spread increased by 16.13 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio rose by 0.0115. PTA主力期价 decreased by 50.0 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped by 10.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased by 32.3 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee increased by 12.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 dropped by 58.0 yuan/ton, and the MEG - naphtha spread increased by 3.1 yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price decreased by 18.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Industry Chain**: PX and PTA operating rates remained unchanged at 85.57% and 75.70% respectively, while the MEG operating rate increased by 0.87% to 64.92%. The polyester load remained at 89.38% [2]. - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price decreased by 25.0 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F price dropped by 15.0 yuan/ton, and DTY150D/48F price decreased by 45.0 yuan/ton. POY cash flow decreased by 10.0 yuan/ton, and DTY cash flow decreased by 30.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased by 35 yuan/ton, and the short - fiber cash flow decreased by 20.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip price decreased by 15.0 yuan/ton, and the chip cash flow remained unchanged [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.25 million - ton PTA device in South China is currently restarting after shutting down around September 23, and another 1.1 million - ton PTA device has increased its load after operating at a low load last week [2].

Group 1: Report's Core View - Market competition intensifies, crude oil prices drop significantly, PX market trading is sluggish with prices plummeting, and polyester downstream procurement halts [2] - Asian naphtha cracking runs smoothly, the spread between MX and naphtha narrows from $88/ton last week to $85/ton, and the spread between PX and MX drops to $132, supporting PX short - process profit [2] - The US - Asia MX arbitrage window widens to $185, but there is no news of shipments from South Korea to the US [2] - Domestic large - scale PTA plants conduct rotational inspections, PTA production in China declines, PTA basis in China weakens, and demand is stable [2] - Polyester's operating load rebounds to 91%, PTA performs weakly due to weak crude oil, and bottle chips and short fibers continue to fluctuate with costs [2] Group 2: Price and Index Changes PTA and MEG - PTA spot price drops from 4500 to 4490, a decrease of 10; PTA closing price drops from 4584 to 4534, a decrease of 50 [2] - MEG domestic price drops from 4224 to 4206, a decrease of 18; MEG closing price drops from 4158 to 4100, a decrease of 58 [2] Short Fibers - 1.4D direct - spun polyester short fiber price drops from 6460 to 6425, a decrease of 35; short - fiber basis increases from 137 to 165, an increase of 28 [2] - 11 - 12 spread drops from 60 to 38, a decrease of 22; polyester short - fiber cash flow increases from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] Bottle Chips - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market range from 5700 - 5840 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 25 yuan/ton from the previous workday [2] - Various types of bottle chips (e.g., East China water bottle chips, hot - filled polyester bottle chips) see price drops of 23 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee drops from 503 to 495, a decrease of 8.42 [2] Others - T32S pure polyester yarn price remains at 10300, T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increases from 3840 to 3875, an increase of 35 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remains at 16350, polyester - cotton yarn profit increases from 1586 to 1609, an increase of 23.21 [2] Group 3: Operating Load and Sales - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) drops from 94.40% to 93.90%, a decrease of 0.01 [3] - Polyester short - fiber sales rate drops from 67.00% to 66.00%, a decrease of 1.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remains at 63.50% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) increases from 51.00% to 51.50%, an increase of 0.01 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, there may be a supply - demand mismatch that could push up prices, but in the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged. The increase in overall supply is the main factor suppressing futures prices. The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and the independent energy storage economy is emerging due to the increase in capacity electricity prices and the expansion of spot price differences, with strong installation demand indicated by increased tender volumes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 73,550 yuan/ton with no change, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,300 yuan/ton with no change. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton [1][2]. - Futures prices of various lithium carbonate contracts are as follows: Li2510 closed at 72,700 yuan/ton with a - 0.47% change; Li2511 at 72,740 yuan/ton with a - 1.3% change; Li2512 at 72,960 yuan/ton with a - 1.11% change; Li2601 at 72,900 yuan/ton with a - 1% change; Li2602 at 72,900 yuan/ton with a - 0.57% change [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is priced at 839 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. Lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,810 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. Phosphorus - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O:6% - 7%) is 6,050 yuan/ton, and (Li2O:7% - 8%) is 7,150 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,640 yuan/ton. The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 153,100 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan/ton; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 124,400 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 130,450 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [2]. Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton. The difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract product is 810 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton. The difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 220 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 160 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons. Smelter inventory (weekly, tons) data is not provided. Downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 59,765 tons, down 1,128 tons. Other inventory (weekly, tons) is 40,290 tons, down 2,150 tons. Registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) are 42,669 tons, up 290 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 74,071 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 1,590 yuan/ton. The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 77,139 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 6,648 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - Chinese researchers have solved the interface contact problem of all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. A research team has developed an anion regulation technology, and the relevant research results were published in the international academic journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" on the 7th [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The valuation is neutral, and short - term risk appetite may be affected. With the resurgence of Sino - US tariff disputes, the black sector may be affected by market risk appetite. In the short term, attention should be paid to APEC, trade negotiations, the Fourth Plenary Session, and the 15th Five - Year Plan. In the industry, it is expected that steel will return to de - stocking next week, and the demand intensity in the "Silver October" needs to be observed. Otherwise, there may be concerns about negative feedback in the off - season [2]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon**: With recent macro - level negative news, the market sentiment is not optimistic, and the prices of silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon are likely to decline. The supply of silicon ferroalloy is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is neutral. The supply of manganese silicon is high, demand is average, and inventory is at a high level. Although short - term alloy plant profits are near the break - even point, there are still medium - term concerns [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the Sino - US trade friction escalated, the market risk appetite weakened. Although the spot of coking coal and coke is strong, the expectation has turned weak. The market is cautious about terminal demand after the festival. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are still tight with some support below, but the impact of steel de - stocking on them needs to be observed [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply data has not been significantly affected. The recent intensification of trade conflicts has hit risk assets, but the impact is less than in April. If there is no production reduction, high - level hot metal in the second half of the year may lead to an oversupply of iron ore in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Category Price and Spread Information - **Futures Closing Prices**: On October 10, for far - month contracts, HC2605 was 12605 yuan/ton, JM2605 was 1819 yuan/ton, RB2605 was 3159 yuan/ton, and J2605 was 3292 yuan/ton. For near - month contracts, HC2601 was 1666.5 yuan/ton, RB2601 was 3103 yuan/ton, etc. There were also corresponding changes in prices and spreads such as cross - month spreads, disk profits, and basis [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On October 10, the price of Tangshan billet was 2950 yuan/ton, Shanghai threaded steel was 3260 yuan/ton, etc., and there were corresponding price changes [1]. Market Outlook and Strategies - **Steel**: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines. For arbitrage, focus on whether the spread between hot - rolled coils and threaded steel in the 01 contract is below 150 for long - position opportunities. Conduct rolling reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines for now [6]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon**: Short - position allocation on rallies is recommended [6]. - **Iron Ore**: It is advisable to wait and see mainly [6].