Group 1: Core View - The growth of US soybeans is in good condition, and the trade policies between the US and other countries show no obvious signs of easing, putting pressure on the US market, but the downside space is expected to be limited. The current trade situation between China and the US may keep the Brazilian premium strong. The domestic market presents a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with the NO1 contract expected to fluctuate strongly, but the short - term strong performance of soybean oil suppresses the performance of soybean meal. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the USDA August supply - demand report will raise the US soybean yield per unit and the domestic import situation of Argentine soybean meal [6][7] - In terms of supply, the good - rate of US soybeans has risen to 70% this week. Although the rainfall in the production areas will be slightly less in the next two weeks without obvious high - temperature, the expected impact is limited. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to continue to be abundant. The purchase of ships from October to January is progressing slowly, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current China - US trade policy [6] - In terms of demand, the breeding cycles of pigs and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the far - month pig supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal has increased this week [7] - In terms of inventory, the domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; soybean meal has a small inventory reduction but is still in the inventory accumulation cycle; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have decreased [7] Group 2: Data Summary Basis Data - The basis data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions and time periods are presented, including the basis of soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang on August 6, the basis of 43% soybean meal spot, the basis of rapeseed meal spot, etc. For example, the basis of soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang on August 6 is - 23 [5] Spread Data - The spread data include the M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1 spreads, the spot spread and the main - contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal. For example, the M9 - 1 spread is - 46, and the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 281 [6] Other Data - The data also involve the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, the soybean CNF premium, the import soybean gross profit, the inventory of soybeans in Chinese ports and major oil mills, the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises, the inventory of soybean meal in major oil mills, the start - up rate and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The sentiment of macro commodities has turned positive recently, and prices are expected to rise in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On August 6, 2025, the price of SP2601 was 5428, with a daily increase of 0.44% and a decrease of 1.34% compared to the Japanese version; SP2605 was 5404, with a daily decrease of 0.30% and a decrease of 1.22% compared to the Japanese version; SP2509 was 5170, with a daily increase of 0.19% and a decrease of 2.93% compared to the Japanese version [1] - The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.18% compared to the Japanese version; Russian Needle was 5180, unchanged and down 4.43%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4080, unchanged and down 1.69% [1] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% from the previous period; Chilean Star was 500 dollars, down 10.71%; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1] - The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% from the previous period; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60%; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Supply - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% from May; broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% [1] - The shipment volume of W20 to China in May 2025 was 140, up 3.30% from April [1] - The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in July 2025 [1] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of Chinese pulp mainstream ports was 210.5 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.8% decline [1] - The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse also showed certain changes during the period [1] Demand - The production of major finished papers decreased slightly this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Valuation - On August 6, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 10, with a quantile level of 0.72; Silver Star basis was 680, with a quantile level of 0.904 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, with a quantile level of 0.545; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 21, with a quantile level of 0.613 [1]

【硅铁锰硅】情绪或有反复,价格仍有较大波动 虽然政策预期摇摆,但是前期交易的部分反内卷逻辑将继续发力,对双硅价格形成支撑,市场情绪仍有反复,价格波动较 大。反内卷对黑色包括双硅而言,主要是供给的减量和成本的支撑。基本面钢厂利润修复,铁水和电炉开工维持高位,供给 延续小幅增量,库存去化为主,表明双硅供需有韧性。不过当前行业库存包括合金厂库存、钢厂库存和交割库库存仍偏高, 去化压力犹存。随着期货价格大幅拉升,前期的合金厂大幅亏损的状态已经扭亏为盈,行业平均利润大幅修复。 | | | | | | | | E | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/08/07 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 Z0010820 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report views sugar bullishly but advises against chasing the upward trend [3][4]. 2. Core View - Sugar should be viewed bullishly, but it's not advisable to chase the upward trend. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in China, while there is a temporary supply tightness in Brazil. The 01 contract may experience a tail - end rally, and it can be operated strongly when it pulls back to the previous low [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Sugar Price and Basis - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning Warehouse is 6050 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis with SR09 is 367 yuan/ton; in Kunming, it's 5840 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, and the basis is 257 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; in Dali, it's 5725 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, and the basis is 182 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. In Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, and the basis is 307 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [4]. - SR09 is at 5686 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; SR01 is at 5628 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; SR09 - 01 is 55 yuan, down 4 yuan [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Prices - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.207, up 0.0105; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - The ICE raw sugar主力 is at 16.09 with no change; the London white sugar主力 is at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 is at 67.68 with no change [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-shares continued to rise strongly with ample market liquidity, and the margin balance returned above 2 trillion yuan for the first time in a decade, with the margin trading balance reaching a new high since July 1, 2015. The current stock index valuation is still supported, and it is advisable to buy stock indices opportunistically [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Money and Bond Market - DROO1 closed at 1.32 with a 0.10 bp increase, DR007 at 1.46 with a 1.12 bp increase, GC001 at 1.50 with a 4.50 bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 0.50 bp increase [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.56 with a 0.10 bp increase, LPR 5-year at 3.50 with no change, 1-year treasury bond at 1.37 with a 0.52 bp decrease, 5-year treasury bond at 1.56 with a 0.97 bp decrease, 10-year treasury bond at 1.70 with a 0.40 bp decrease, and 10-year US treasury bond at 4.22 with no change [4] - The central bank conducted 138.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with 309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan. This week, 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 495.8 billion, 449.2 billion, 309 billion, 283.2 billion, and 126 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - In July, the SLF had a net withdrawal of 300 million yuan, MLF a net injection of 10 billion yuan, PSL a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan, short-term reverse repurchase a net injection of 18.8 billion yuan, and outright reverse repurchase a net injection of 20 billion yuan. No open market treasury bond transactions were conducted in July [4] Stock Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4113 with a 0.24% increase, SSE 50 at 2797 with a 0.24% increase, CSI 500 at 6357 with a 0.86% increase, and CSI 1000 at 6861 with a 1.09% increase [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.7341 trillion yuan, an increase of 138 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors rose, with the shipbuilding sector rising significantly, and the rubber products, motor, aerospace, gaming, general equipment, and auto parts sectors leading the gains, while the traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical commerce, and chemical pharmaceutical sectors led the losses [5] - IF volume was 73,908 with an 8.2% decrease, and open interest was 253,006 with a 1.0% decrease; IH volume was 36,686 with a 9.9% decrease, and open interest was 91,160 with a 1.7% decrease; IC volume was 72,137 with a 9.5% increase, and open interest was 219,342 with a 2.0% increase; IM volume was 176,382 with a 13.6% increase, and open interest was 341,310 with a 3.4% increase [5] Futures Premium and Discount Situation - Premium and discount rates for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented, with specific values for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PTA market saw price increases due to a rebound in the crude oil market and production cuts at some PTA plants, but the spot basis weakened due to continuous shipments from major suppliers. The ethylene glycol market maintained a strong - side oscillation, with spot prices rising slightly and the basis negotiation strengthening. The polyester market faced a complex situation, with factors such as changes in raw material prices, production and sales rates, and inventory levels affecting the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 508.8 yuan/barrel on August 5, 2025, to 505.9 yuan/barrel on August 6, 2025, a decrease of 2.90 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC spread increased from 984.5 yuan/ton to 1047.6 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.2663 to 1.2849. PTA主力期价 increased from 4682 yuan/ton to 4724 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 4660 yuan/ton to 4680 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 144.6 yuan/ton to 160.0 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee rose from 161.6 yuan/ton to 174.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased from 839 to 844, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 254 to 260 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 increased from 4399 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 101.04 yuan/ton to - 97.23 yuan/ton, and MEG internal market price rose from 4463 to 4491 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 78.11%, PTA start - up rate decreased from 78.04% to 77.49%, MEG start - up rate increased from 58.81% to 59.54%, and polyester load remained at 87.09% [2]. Polyester Product Data - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F prices remained unchanged. POY, FDY, and DTY cash flows decreased by 27.0. The long - filament production and sales rate increased from 37% to 52% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6550 to 6535, the staple - fiber cash flow decreased from 171 to 129, and the short - fiber production and sales rate increased from 47% to 68% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip price increased from 5780 to 5795, the chip cash flow decreased from - 49 to - 61, and the chip production and sales rate increased from 73% to 87% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 720 - million - ton PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [2].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 直纺短纤负荷(周) 92. 30% 93.00% (0. 01) 涤纶短纤产销 24. 00% 47. 00% 71.00% 涤纱开机率(周) 66. 00% 65. 00% (0. 01) 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 51. 50% 46. 00% (0. 06) 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 10000 14000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始第 (零收) 配日员(左特) T325纯涤纱价格 条短现金流 ■ 1.4D直红杀短 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 4000 -200 9000 - 3000 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 202 5-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与现金流 1000 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 6, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.08% to 783.68 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.19% to 9,182 yuan/kg [3]. - The US July non - farm payrolls report shows that the US labor market has been cooling since April and may weaken further. Fed officials' statements on approaching interest - rate cuts, Trump's political actions, and new tariffs, along with poor US economic data, have increased the probability of an August Fed rate cut to 90%, supporting precious metal prices. However, the continuous rise of risk assets like stocks and high risk appetite have made the domestic gold price weaker than the overseas price recently. Looking ahead, the extensive cooling of the US labor market and the implementation of tariffs may support the gold price to continue its strong performance, and it is recommended to hold long positions. For silver, it may run strongly in the short - term due to high market risk appetite, but in the medium - term, the focus should be on fundamentals, and caution is needed for the upside space [3]. - In the long - term, there is still a certain probability of Fed rate cuts this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases continue, and the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 6, 2025, London gold spot was at $3,373.65/ounce, London silver spot was at $37.82/ounce, COMEX gold was at $3,428.30/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $37.85/ounce. Compared with August 5, the price of gold rose 0.2% and silver rose 1.3%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed varying degrees of increase [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: On August 6, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.74 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 32 yuan/kg. Compared with August 5, the spreads of some items changed, with the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increasing 1.1% and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread increasing 6.7% [3]. Position Data - As of August 5, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 955.94 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15,044.47453 tons, with week - on - week increases of 0.12% and 0.15% respectively. The non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver decreased compared with the previous period, with the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold decreasing 11.64% and those of COMEX silver decreasing 2.00% [3]. Inventory Data - On August 6, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 36,045 kg, up 0.10% from August 5; SHFE silver inventory was 1,161,844 kg, up 0.39% from August 5. On August 5, COMEX gold inventory was 38,800,720 fine ounces, up 0.02% from August 4; COMEX silver inventory was 506,311,741 fine ounces, down 0.06% from August 4 [3]. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On August 6, 2025, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.14, up 0.06% from August 5. The US dollar index was 98.76 on August 5, up 0.01% from August 4. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.72%, up 0.81% from August 4; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.22%, unchanged from August 4. The VIX index was 17.85 on August 5, up 1.88% from August 4. The S&P 500 index was 6,299.19 on August 5, down 0.49% from August 4 [3]. Geopolitical and Economic News - Geopolitically, Israel's prime minister held a limited security meeting to fully re - occupy the Gaza Strip. Russia may make concessions to the US and propose an air cease - fire with Ukraine. The EU decided to suspend the anti - tariff measures against the US that were originally scheduled to take effect on August 7 [3]. - Economically, the US July ISM services index was only 50.1, the employment index shrank, and the price index reached a new high since October 2022 [3].

Market Review - The closing price of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index was 2,790.73, up 0.77%, with a trading volume of 4.13 billion and a transaction amount of 77.88 billion yuan. The trading volume of put options was 1 million, and the trading volume of call options was 2.06 million, with a PCR of 0.49. The open interest of options was 7.28 million, with 4.64 million for call options and 2.65 million for put options, and a PCR of 0.57 [4] - The closing price of the CSI 300 Index was 4,103.45, up 0.80%, with a trading volume of 17.89 billion and a transaction amount of 306.93 billion yuan. The trading volume of put options was 2.7 million, and the trading volume of call options was 5.12 million, with a PCR of 0.53. The open interest of options was 20.59 million, with 12.06 million for call options and 8.53 million for put options, and a PCR of 0.71 [4] - The closing price of the CSI 1000 Index was 6,787.48, up 0.71%, with a trading volume of 22.37 billion and a transaction amount of 348.58 billion yuan. The trading volume of put options was 8.41 million, and the trading volume of call options was 9.89 million, with a PCR of 0.85. The open interest of options was 28.1 million, with 13.96 million for call options and 14.15 million for put options, and a PCR of 1.01 [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.96% to 3,617.6 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.39%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 0.25%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.4%, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.78%, the Wind A500 Index rose 0.77%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 0.67%. The total A - share trading volume for the day was 1.62 trillion yuan, compared with 1.52 trillion yuan the previous day [14] Volatility Analysis Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index - The historical volatility chain shows the maximum, minimum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, and the current value. The next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve are also presented [8][9] CSI 300 Index - The historical volatility chain includes the maximum, minimum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, and the current value. The next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve are provided [9] CSI 1000 Index - The historical volatility chain shows the maximum, minimum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, and the current value. The next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve are also shown [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows a weak and volatile trend. The main reason is that overtime ships have intensified the oversupply of capacity during the off - season, leading to an overall weak and volatile market. The Maersk's late - session cabin opening price and the less - than - expected tariff situation have also affected the market [7]. - The spot price has peaked, with the quotation in early August starting to weaken and driving the late - August price down. The 10 - contract's main focus is on the decline slope of freight rates from August to October [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Shipping Derivatives Data - **China Export Container Freight Rates**: The SCFI - West America, SCFI - East America, SCFIS - West America, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFI - Mediterranean, and SCFIS - Northwest Europe all showed declines, with the SCFIS - Northwest Europe having the largest decline of - 11.99% [4]. - **EC Contracts**: The EC2506, EC2508, and EC2604 showed increases in price, while EC2510 and EC2512 showed decreases. In terms of positions, EC2410 increased by 1055, while others decreased to varying degrees [4][5]. Market News - China and the US will continue to promote the extension of the temporarily suspended reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures [6]. - The US will impose a 50% tariff on copper products and their derivatives starting from August 1 [6]. - Trump hopes to change the Gaza policy to a comprehensive agreement to solve all problems at once [6]. - Japan's economic and fiscal policy minister will urge the US to implement the auto - tariff agreement and get Trump to sign the relevant executive order [6]. Strategy - Short the 10 - contract on rallies (gradually take profits as it has corrected significantly recently) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9].