2012 31 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 元旦假期后的首周国内商品大幅上涨，工业品、农产品均出现了普涨的行情。主要原因，一是美国对委内瑞拉的军事行动引发市场对于大国之间资源争夺的预期； | | | 二是，美国数据好坏参半，美联储降息仍有空间；三是，国内扩大内需+反内卷政策共同推动商品价格重心的抬升。 | | 海外 | 1）ISM公布的数据显示，美国12月ISM制造业PMI降至47.9，创2024年以来最大萎缩幅度，连续10个月低于50荣枯线，表明制造业持续收缩。12月ISM非制造业 指数升至54.4，显著高于预期与前值，反映出美国的服务业的景气度在上升，服务业的扩张一定程度上对冲了制造业疲软对整体经济的拖累。短期来看，制造业 | | | 疲软预计仍将延续，难以快速出现拐点。中长期来看，关税不确定性缓解及相关法案落地或为资本支出提供支撑，但需注意制造业持续疲软对整体经济的影响。2） | | | 美国12月ADP就业人数新增4.1万人，相比11月份减少的2.9万人有所回升，但少于预期的4.9万人，12月份就业出现反弹，主要由教育和健康服务业以及休闲和酒 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term European line is expected to be volatile, and the main contract's valuation is under pressure after a pull - back [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the freight rate of the container shipping index for the European line will peak in mid - to late January. Multiple factors, including spot freight rates, political - economic situations, capacity supply, and demand, affect the freight rate trend. The short - term European line shows an oscillating pattern, and there is a risk of further downward movement in freight rates [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot freight rates**: They have a positive impact. Maersk's quotes in the fourth week of January are differentiated. Some shipping companies like Hapag - Lloyd and EMC have different price trends, with some showing price drops and others maintaining high prices but with weakened price - holding power [3]. - **Political - economic factors**: They are considered neutral. The US Supreme Court's potential ruling on Trump's global tariff policy, the trend of "shadow fleet" tankers in the US - Venezuela situation, and the peak shipping season in the Asia - Europe route with increased capacity deployment are all influencing factors [3]. - **Capacity supply**: It has a negative impact. The weekly average capacity has been increasing from 2025 to 2026, with 270,000 TEU in November 2025, 300,000 TEU in December 2025, and 313,000 - 321,000 TEU in January 2026 [3]. - **Demand**: It has a positive impact. At the end of 2025, the container shipping demand for the European line remained strong, with continuous growth in booking volume and high fleet loading rates, supported by pre - Spring Festival stocking and European importers' replenishment needs [3]. - **Trading strategy**: It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and international macro - policy disturbances [3]. 3.2 Price - The report presents price trends of various shipping routes in the spot market, including the European line index, the US - West line index, and the US - East line index, through charts [6]. 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order volume**: The report shows the order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over a long - term period, including the proportion of the order book to the fleet and new - order volumes [11]. - **Delivery volume**: It presents the delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities from 2020 - 2025 [14][16]. - **Demolition volume**: It shows the demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities from 2020 - 2025 [15][17]. - **Future delivery**: It forecasts the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities from 2023 - 2029, including quarterly and annual data [20][22][23]. - **Ship prices**: It includes the scrap price, new - building price, and second - hand price of container ships with different loading capacities, and their price indices [27][29][33]. - **Existing capacity**: It shows the existing capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, proportion, age, and idle/retrofit ratio, including data for different loading capacities and age groups [42][45][46]. 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Ship schedule**: It shows the capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, etc.) on the Shanghai - European basic port route from week 13 to week 28 [57][59][61]. - **Desulfurization tower installation**: It presents the situation of container ships with installed and being - installed desulfurization towers, including the number of ships, TEU, and average age and duration of installation, as well as the average speed of container ships [67][68][71]. - **Idle capacity**: It shows the idle capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, number of ships, and proportion, and the situation of hot - idle and desulfurization - tower - retrofit ships [75][76][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish. OPEC+ will continue to suspend production increases in the first quarter. Although the long - term supply - demand of crude oil remains relatively loose, short - term geopolitical situations are the main disruptions, and the risk premium of oil prices may rise [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical situations repeatedly disrupt the international oil market, causing wide - range fluctuations in oil prices. The long - term supply - demand of crude oil is relatively loose, but short - term geopolitical factors are the main drivers of price changes. OPEC+ maintains stable production in the first quarter, and the risk premium of oil prices may increase [3][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA slightly raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC and IEA data show different trends in OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production in November [3]. - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different adjustments to the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand growth in 2025 and 2026, but overall, the demand shows a certain upward trend [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.832 million barrels in the week ending January 8, while Cushing inventories increased by 730,000 barrels. Product inventories such as gasoline and distillates increased [3]. - **Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC+ reaffirmed stable production in the first quarter of 2026 and suspended the planned production increase. The U.S. claims to control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely [3]. - **Geopolitical Situations (Short - Term)**: Israeli military attacks in the Gaza Strip and Trump's statement about Greenland increase geopolitical risks, which is bullish for oil prices [3]. - **Macro - Finance (Short - Term)**: U.S. non - farm payrolls in December were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate was also lower than expected. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January decreased [3]. - **Investment View**: Bullish. OPEC+'s suspension of production increase in the first quarter, combined with short - term geopolitical disruptions, may lead to an increase in the risk premium of oil prices [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading are advised to wait and see [3]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Geopolitical situations led to wide - range fluctuations in oil prices this week, showing a pattern of first falling and then rising. As of January 9, WTI crude oil rose by 2.53%, Brent crude oil rose by 3.65%, and SC crude oil rose by 0.12% [6]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads and Internal - External Spreads**: Near - month spreads strengthened slightly, and internal - external spreads fluctuated within a narrow range [9]. - **Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of gasoline and diesel, as well as jet fuel, declined [24][35]. 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: Global crude oil production increased in November 2025. U.S. production decreased slightly in the week ending January 8, and the number of active drilling rigs decreased [57][81]. - **Inventory**: U.S. commercial inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [82][92]. - **Demand**: In the U.S., implied demand for gasoline and diesel decreased, while refinery operating rates remained high. In China, refinery capacity utilization decreased slightly [105][115]. - **Refinery Profits**: In China, the gross profit of major refineries decreased, while the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel remained stable [126]. - **Macro - Finance**: U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index rebounded [139]. - **CFTC Positions**: Net short positions in WTI crude oil speculative trading decreased [149].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market has large sentiment fluctuations, and it is expected that benzene and styrene will mainly fluctuate [3]. - The Asian benzene market is affected by factors such as the strength of US benzene prices, downstream styrene market support, and market sentiment, maintaining a volatile state. The supply can meet the demand, and the overall demand is stable while overseas demand is weak [77]. - The Asian styrene market has rebounded, but high inventory and weak overseas demand still limit its upward space [126]. - The overseas benzene and styrene markets are both facing the dual pressures of improved supply and weak demand in the short - term, and the profitability is under pressure [68][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The economic situation of styrene producers in Asia has recovered but remains negative. The spread between styrene and naphtha is $290, and the spread between styrene and benzene is stable at $165 [3]. - **Demand**: As of January 5, 2026, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.00% and a year - on - year increase of 71.71%. From December 29 to January 4, the estimated arrival was about 25,000 tons and the pick - up was about 7,000 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: As of January 5, 2026, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period [3]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis has slightly strengthened. Overseas demand for blending oil has weakened, and Trump's foreign policy significantly affects oil prices. Attention should be paid to changes in cost support [3]. - **Profit**: The spread between styrene and naphtha is $290, and the spread between styrene and benzene is stable at $165. Styrene profit has slightly recovered [3]. - **Valuation**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows. Overseas export demand is driving up prices, and the market is paying attention to the strengthening of basis and monthly spread performance [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Trump is planning to dominate the Venezuelan oil industry, which may lower oil prices. If successful, the US will control most of the oil reserves in the Western Hemisphere and gain an important say in the final flow of crude oil [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Crude Oil**: Trump's policy changes significantly affect oil prices [5]. - **Styrene**: Non - integrated styrene unit profits are average, and styrene profits have relatively expanded [14][23]. - **Pure Benzene**: Pure benzene inventory remains at a high level [32]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: In the off - season, demand is weak, and ABS profits are shrinking [46]. - **Styrene Downstream - PS**: PS production margins are weak, and demand is difficult to follow up [59]. - **Styrene Downstream - EPS**: EPS prices are at a low level, and inventory continues to accumulate [69]. - **Pure Benzene - Aniline**: Aniline production has declined, and margins have rebounded [79]. - **Styrene Overseas**: The overseas styrene market is in a post - holiday slump. Profits are expected to be negative in early 2026, and production is restricted by cost pressure [87]. - **Phenol**: Phenol port inventory remains at a low level [88]. - **Adipic Acid**: Adipic acid profits are low [99]. - **Caprolactam**: Caprolactam production load has declined, and inventory has been depleted [111]. - **Appliance Production**: Refrigerator and freezer production schedules and household air - conditioner production schedules are provided, but no specific analysis is given [122][124].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is to "observe" [8] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market is in a downward trend. Spot price quotes are differentiated, and some shipping companies have lowered freight rates, breaking the expectation of consistent price support. The new EU ETS regulations push up compliance costs to form support, but the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea and weak European demand limit the upside space. Attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival stocking and port turnover, and be alert to the risk of further decline in freight rates [6][7] Group 3: Summary of Specific Data Freight Rate Index | Index | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFI | 1647 | 1656 | -0.54% | | CCFI | 1195 | 1147 | 4.21% | | SCFI - West US | 2218 | 2188 | 1.37% | | SCFIS - West US | 1250 | 1301 | -3.92% | | SCFI - East US | 3128 | 3033 | 3.13% | | SCFI - Northwest Europe | 1719 | 1690 | 1.72% | | SCFIS - Northwest Europe | 1795 | 1742 | 3.04% | | SCFI - Mediterranean | 3232 | 3143 | 2.83% | [4] Spot Prices - Maersk's quotes in the fourth week of January were differentiated. The quote from Shanghai to Rotterdam was 2700 US dollars/FEU (a month - on - month increase of 100), and the quotes from Ningbo to Rotterdam and Shanghai to Gdansk dropped to 2400 US dollars/FEU (230 lower than the European base port). - Hapag - Lloyd followed the alliance's rhythm, and the central quote dropped to 2300 - 2700 US dollars/FEU. - OA's quotes were loose in the first half of January. EMC's quotes from January 16 - 22 were 2800 - 2950 US dollars/FEU, still at a high level but with weakened price - holding strength. - YML's quotes from January 16 - 22 were 2600 US dollars/FEU, lower than OA and MSC, and temporarily did not follow Maersk's price cut. - MSC's quotes in the second half of January were 2840 US dollars/FEU, the same as in the first half, and did not follow Maersk's downward adjustment [7] Group 4: Market News - The US Supreme Court has scheduled Friday as the "judgment day", which will be the first possible time point to rule on President Donald Trump's global tariff policy. If the Trump tariff is ruled illegal, it will weaken his iconic economic policy. - According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, the US action to oust Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has further accelerated the trend of "shadow fleet" tankers shifting under the protection of the Russian flag. - The Asia - Europe route has entered the peak shipping season, and liner companies have increased capacity deployment. According to Xeneta, the capacity supply on the Asia - Pacific to Northern Europe route this week has reached a record high. The pre - Spring Festival rush has begun on the Asia - Pacific - Northern Europe route, and there are signs of "frontloading" [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the caustic soda market is "oscillating", with short - term trading strategies of no arbitrage and no unilateral trading [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current caustic soda market shows a situation where spot prices are weakening while futures are oscillating strongly. The short - term market lacks obvious driving forces, and it is expected to mainly oscillate. Multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, profit, and valuation have different impacts on the market [3][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.3 tons to 850,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda was 86.8%, a 0.4% week - on - week increase. Next week, the load of some regional devices may be slightly adjusted, and the focus is on the resumption of maintenance of chlor - alkali equipment in Zhejiang [3] - **Demand**: Alumina start - up declined, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 88.43%, a 3.01% increase from last week. The comprehensive start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 60.09%, a 0.72% decrease from the previous period [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory situation is bearish. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 - ton and above was 495,200 tons (wet tons), a 1.96% week - on - week increase and a 76.03% year - on - year increase. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 28.22%, a 0.69% week - on - week decrease. The storage capacity ratios in North China, Central China, and Southwest China increased week - on - week, while those in the Northwest, East China, Northeast, and South China regions decreased [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 67, and the futures price is at a premium [3] - **Profit**: The profit situation is bearish. During the current week, the cost of raw materials and auxiliary materials was stable, the energy cost decreased, and the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased. The price of caustic soda declined, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased. The average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was - 57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease [3] - **Valuation**: The valuation situation is bullish. The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract has a slight premium [3] - **Macro - policy**: There is currently no relevant macro - policy [3] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - This week, the Shandong spot market was weak, while the futures market oscillated strongly. Affected by the anti - involution sentiment, the futures price rebounded slightly. On the spot side, the price of liquid chlorine was higher than that in the first half of the year, and it first fell and then rose this week, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. In the short term, factories have not reduced their loads. The price of 32% caustic soda declined to varying degrees, and the high - concentration caustic soda has not stabilized. Downstream demand is weak, and the overall performance of the Shandong market is still poor. The expected price cuts for alumina purchases in Shanxi and Henan have been realized, the supply side has not reduced its load, and the spot supply pressure is high [6] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices have risen [34] - **Upstream Production**: The start - up rate remained stable at a high level, and inventory was destocked [36] - **Main Producing Area Production**: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [39] - **Chlor - alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has declined [40] - **Downstream Price**: The price of alumina has declined, and the non - aluminum price is weak [43] - **Alumina**: The alumina supply - demand balance has been restored, and inventory has increased. The port bauxite inventory has increased. Alumina profit is poor, but there has been no significant production cut. Bauxite has flowed into the domestic market, supply is in surplus, and the factory's bauxite inventory has increased significantly [55][61] - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum start - up remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum has entered a seasonal off - season, and start - up has begun to decline. In the printing and dyeing industry, affected by weak demand, large - scale dyeing factories mainly execute orders from regular customers, while small - and medium - scale dyeing factories rely on scattered small orders. The overall market start - up is weak, and the short - term market recovery is weak [62][63] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The start - up rate has rebounded [70]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The estimated ending stocks of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season remain at 290 million bushels, and the US soybean stock-to-use ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, providing support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustments of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report on US soybean yield and exports [7]. - There is no obvious weather-driven impact on South American crops in the short term. Brazil has started harvesting. Given the prediction of a bumper Brazilian soybean crop, attention should be paid to the impact of the January harvest pressure on Brazilian CNF premiums [8]. - The restart of imported soybean auctions in China brings an expectation of improved supply in the first quarter. Attention should be paid to the transaction situation. Recently, the soybean meal futures market is expected to be mainly volatile, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the adjustments in the January USDA Supply and Demand Report, the trend of Brazilian premiums, and changes in China-Canada trade policies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data on Spot Basis - On January 9th, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 454, down 4; in Tianjin it was 414, down 4; in Rizhao it was 374; in Zhangjiagang it was 364, down 4; in Dongguan it was 354, down 4; in Zhanjiang it was 394, down 4; in Fangcheng it was 404, down 14. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 85, up 12 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The RM1 - 5 spread was 450 in 20/21, 218 in 21/22. The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 657, up 9. The futures spread (main contract) of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 448, up 24 [10]. 3.3 Premium and Profit Data - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 111.00 cents per bushel, up 3. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9513. The import soybean futures gross profit in Brazil showed different trends in different months [10]. 3.4 Inventory Data - The report shows the inventory trends of national major oil mills' soybeans, Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean meal, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises from 2018 to 2025 [10][11]. 3.5开机和压榨情况 - The report presents the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of national major oil mills in 2025 [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Bearish [6] - Polysilicon: Neutral (Suggested to wait and see) [7] - Lithium carbonate: Sideways [85] Core Views of the Report - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, and with the strengthening expectation of polysilicon production cuts, the support below the price is weak [6]. - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak, and the existing "anti-involution" measures may violate "anti-monopoly" regulations, leading to a revaluation of the polysilicon price. Future prices may continue to correct the previous policy expectations of "anti-involution." Due to the high speculative atmosphere in the polysilicon futures market and large price fluctuations, the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures, resulting in poor contract liquidity [7]. - In terms of demand for lithium carbonate, there are more production suspensions and maintenance in the material sector in January, and the scheduled production has decreased month-on-month, but the prosperity is higher than in previous years. In terms of supply, the scheduled production in January has decreased, and there is no sign of large-scale production increase. The weekly data shows a slight increase in production and a slight accumulation of inventory, indicating obvious off-season characteristics. Coupled with the large short - term increase and a large number of profit - taking positions, the lithium carbonate price may fluctuate in the short term [85]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 80,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77%; the number of open furnaces is 228, a week - on - week decrease of 3. The production in January is scheduled to be 377,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 24.26% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon is 25,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.71%; the weekly production of silicone is 44,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90%. The production of both in January is scheduled to decline significantly [6]. - **Inventory**: The visible inventory is 512,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%; the industry inventory is 457,900 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the warehouse receipt inventory is 54,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.42% [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,088 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03%; the gross profit per ton is - 97 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [6]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, and the price support is weak [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish on single - side trading. Pay attention to the disturbances of large manufacturers' production cuts and restarts and changes in environmental protection policies [6]. Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 25,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.71%. The production in January is scheduled to be 107,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.19% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 10.26GW, a week - on - week decrease of 0.97%. The factory inventory is 26.23GW, a week - on - week increase of 13.11% [7]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 311,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%, with continuous inventory accumulation; the registered warehouse receipts are 13,290 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.93%, with continuous increase [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 42,795 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.71%; the gross profit per ton is 16,415 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 7,437 yuan [7]. - **News**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has required the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and the interviewed enterprises not to engage in monopolistic behavior and has asked them to submit written rectification measures by January 20 [7]. - **Investment View**: Wait and see. The weak fundamentals of polysilicon and the potential violation of "anti - monopoly" regulations by "anti - involution" measures have led to a revaluation of the price. The contract liquidity is poor, and investors are reminded to pay attention to price fluctuations and liquidity risks [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see on single - side trading. Pay attention to the disturbances of large manufacturers' production cuts and restarts and changes in "anti - involution" policies [7]. Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 22,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.51%. The production in January is scheduled to be about 98,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year increase of 56.78% [85]. - **Import**: In November, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.64% and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The import volume of lithium concentrate was 677,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year increase of 40.42% [85]. - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate is 99,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.34%; the weekly production of ternary materials is 18,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55%. The production of both in January is scheduled to decline [85]. - **Terminal Demand**: In November, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.88 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.10% and a year - on - year increase of 20.03%; the sales volume was 1.823 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.27% and a year - on - year increase of 20.59%. The cumulative winning bid power/scale of energy storage from January to November was 59.48GW/160.39GWh, a year - on - year increase of 70.53%/118.93% [85]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 10.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%; the lithium salt factory inventory is 18,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.05%; the downstream inventory is 91,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41%. The warehouse receipt inventory is 25,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25.04% [85]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external ore purchase is 130,468 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13.88%; the production profit is 2,792 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,340 yuan/ton. The cash production cost of lithium spodumene is 134,245 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13.64%; the production profit is 2,351 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,619 yuan/ton [85]. - **Investment View**: Sideways. The lithium carbonate market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and the price may fluctuate in the short term [85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sideways on single - side trading. Pay attention to the disturbances of ore production cuts, changes in environmental protection policies, and the disturbances of large power battery manufacturers [85].

【国债周报（TL&T&TF&TS)】 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 债期弱势震荡整理 樊梦真 从业资格证号：F3035483 投资咨询证号 ：Z0014706 报告日期：2026-1-12 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点 周度行情一览 • 上周国债期货市场整体呈现先抑后扬的弱势整理震荡格局，其中超长端期限表现最弱。政策面有一些积极信号，一是证监会发布的基金销售费用新规比预期温和， 延长了债基赎回费的缓冲期，这有助于稳定债基负债端，二是银行eve指标比例放松，或释放万亿长债承接空间。但市场对于这些政策利好定价较为有限，仅推 动利率小幅下行1bp。央行方面，周内央行进行买断式逆回购操作11000亿元，期限为3个月，等量对冲到期量。这表明央行意在维持市场中长期流动性的稳定， 避免因大规模到期而产生波动。 1月4日至9日，7天期逆回购累计投放1225亿元，到期量为20113亿元，净回笼18888 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, investment views for each sub - sector are as follows: - **Steel**: Suggests a wait - and - see approach, with a view of treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Recommends a temporary wait - and - see stance [65] - **Iron Ore**: Advises a wait - and - see approach [114] 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the steel, coking coal and coke, and iron ore markets. It points out that the steel market has a complex situation with factors such as supply increase, demand fluctuations, and inventory accumulation. The coking coal and coke market has a neutral situation with potential for downstream restocking. The iron ore market has insufficient upward drivers and faces inventory pressure [5][65][114]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: Iron and steel production shows an upward trend. Iron water production has continued to rise, and scrap steel daily consumption is stable. After January, iron water production is expected to increase, but the increase will not be concentrated. As the Spring Festival approaches, electric furnace operations will decline [5] - **Demand**: From an industrial data perspective, supply has increased marginally, and the negative pressure on furnace materials has weakened. From a market perception perspective, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, with speculative demand being sporadic. After January, state - owned palletizing funds may return to the market, which is beneficial for the spot liquidity of the trading sector. Among different products, the demand for building materials has weakened significantly, while the demand for cold - rolled products is stable, and the demand for medium - thick plates and hot - rolled coils has decreased slightly [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has increased weekly, which is related to the stagnant demand during the New Year's Day holiday and the increase in steel production. The inventory - to - sales ratio is under pressure, which suppresses price elasticity. The inventory of plate products is slow to decline, and the high - inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils has not been eliminated [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils has declined, while the basis of rebar has remained stable [5] - **Profit**: The profitability of steel mills is at a medium - low level, and the actual production profit is slightly higher than the statistical profit. The profitability rate of steel mills is 37.66%, with a weekly change of - 0.44% [5] - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar, making it more suitable for rolling cash - and - carry operations. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the relative valuation is neutral [5] - **Macro and Risk Preference**: The market has abundant liquidity, and the rotation of commodity funds has increased volatility [5] - **Investment View**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. At the macro level, there are few new drivers and news, and the market liquidity is relatively abundant. At the industrial level, the increase in iron water production has weakened the negative impact on furnace materials, but the inventory pressure of plate products still suppresses price elasticity. In the future, the increase in iron water production is more certain, and there is still demand for downstream restocking, so the price has support at low levels. Currently, the industrial contradictions are not prominent, and the macro and market risk preferences are slightly positive. The strategy can be to view the market with an oscillatory mindset, and after January, market funds may be more abundant, which is beneficial for cash - and - carry positions [5] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The steel market has entered the off - season, with a significant decline in the apparent demand of five major steel products and an increase in production, leading to an increase in steel inventory. The daily average iron water production of 247 steel mills has increased, and the profitability rate of steel mills has remained flat [65] - **Coking Coal Supply**: New - year coal mines have resumed production as scheduled, but the production is still lower than the same - period level. Mongolian coal customs clearance has remained at a high level, and the price of overseas coal has continued to rise, with the internal - external price inversion persisting [65] - **Coke Supply**: The coking operation has recovered, with an increase in daily coke production and a decrease in coking profit. The previous environmental protection restrictions have ended [65] - **Inventory**: The downstream procurement sentiment has improved, and the inventory of coking coal and coke has mainly increased in the middle and lower reaches [65] - **Basis/Spread**: The fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented. The cost of wet - quenched and dry - quenched warehouse receipts for the 05 contract is 1675 and 1700 respectively, and the port trade quotation has rebounded. The cost of Mongolian coal warehouse receipts is over 1200 [65] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 37.66% (- 0.44%), and the coking profit is - 45 (- 31) [65] - **Summary**: The black - metal sector has oscillated upwards. Affected by supply - side news, coking coal and coke prices rose sharply on Wednesday, with coking coal hitting the daily limit. The market is currently in the off - season, and the industry data is weak. In the future, attention should be paid to whether downstream restocking will gradually start. It is advisable to buy on dips, but caution is needed due to increased volatility after the recent sharp rise in prices [65] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The Reuters shipping data has decreased compared to the previous period, with a decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil and a rebound in non - mainstream mines. The arrival volume in China has increased, with an increase in arrivals from Australia and a decrease in arrivals from Brazil and non - mainstream sources [114] - **Demand**: The steel mill's iron water production has increased compared to the previous period, and the steel mill's profitability ratio has continued to fluctuate slightly. According to the maintenance plan, iron water production will gradually increase in the future, and iron ore demand is in a recovery phase in January. The steel production has increased slightly, and the apparent demand for rebar has declined significantly due to the holiday, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils has decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure has been slightly relieved [114] - **Inventory**: The average daily port clearance volume of 47 ports has decreased slightly, but the arrival pressure is large, and the port inventory has increased again, reaching a new high for the year and remaining higher than the same - period level last year [114] - **Profit**: The steel mill's profit is at a low level [114] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is relatively high [114] - **Summary**: The iron ore price has declined when it reached the previously mentioned pressure level, which is affected by the resonance decline of the commodity index and market rumors. Currently, the iron ore valuation is moderately high, and it is not recommended to chase the long side. Fundamentally, the iron water production has remained stable and increased, and the port inventory has continued to rise under the influence of supply and demand, so the upward pressure on the iron ore price is obvious. It is recommended to wait and see [114]