1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current shipment boost is limited, and the short - term valuation of asphalt may remain neutral to weak. Attention should be paid to the start of peak - season demand and the trend of oil prices [4]. - The strategy includes a weak and volatile unilateral market, taking profit on reverse spreads in the inter - period market, and no suggestion for the inter - variety market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 31.7%, a 1.4% decline from the previous week. Although some refineries increased production or resumed production, others switched to producing residue oil or reduced production, leading to the decline [4]. - **Demand**: The sharp drop in crude oil prices increased the wait - and - see sentiment, and the enthusiasm for asphalt procurement declined. In Shandong, terminal demand was weak, and prices were under pressure to stimulate sales. In East China, some areas were affected by rain, and actual demand was lower than expected. Social inventory increased due to the concentrated arrival of postponed ship cargoes after a typhoon [4]. - **Valuation**: During the week, BU fluctuated downward following crude oil. The average weekly price of domestic asphalt was 3,754 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period. The price fluctuated between 3,741 - 3,768 yuan/ton, with a wider range. Three regions saw price drops, two regions had price increases, and two regions had stable prices. The largest decline was in North China, and the largest increase was in Southwest China [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. There are also considerations regarding raw material supply, import and export policies, exchange rates, and freight. Different types of crude oil have different asphalt yields, with Ma Rui crude oil having a yield of 55% - 60% [7]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The report presents data on futures - disk prices, trading volume, and positions, as well as spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt and Ma Rui crude oil in different regions [11][12]. - **Spread**: It shows the basis and monthly spread data, including the basis in Shandong, North China, and the Yangtze River Delta regions, and the monthly spread between different contract months [16][19][20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - **Consumption Distribution**: Asphalt demand is mainly from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), the waterproof market, the ship - fuel market, the coking market, and the export market. Seasonal factors also have an impact, although the impact of some markets is relatively small [23]. - **Shipment and Capacity Utilization**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the total shipment of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 418,000 tons, a 0.2% decrease from the previous week. Shandong's shipment decreased significantly due to reduced supply and weak demand, while East China's shipment increased due to high - load production and good shipping after the weather improved. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 15.9%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous week but a 2.8% increase year - on - year. In East China, the capacity utilization rate decreased due to weather and capital constraints [27]. 3.3.2 Supply - **Supply Pattern**: Domestic asphalt supply comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports. Refineries are divided by region and attribute, and imports mainly come from South Korea and Singapore. Key supply indicators include inventory, production profit, maintenance plans, and monthly production schedules [29]. - **Production, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: The weekly total production of domestic asphalt was 561,000 tons, a 1.1% decrease from the previous week but a 25.8% increase year - on - year. As of August 7, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt refineries was 717,000 tons, a 0.7% decrease from August 4. The total inventory of 104 domestic social asphalt warehouses was 1,872,000 tons, a 0.3% decrease from August 4. East China's refinery inventory decreased significantly, while its social inventory increased significantly due to the concentrated arrival of postponed ship cargoes after a typhoon [32]. - **Start - up and Inventory**: The report provides data on the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions and the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries in different regions [35][46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Naphtha and Ethylene - The contradiction of naphtha in the second half of the year lies in the dual increase of supply and demand. The supply side is affected by OPEC's production increase and new refining capacity, while the demand side is driven by new cracking devices. Near - term ethylene cracking profit is greatly influenced by crude oil. Ethylene is expected to shift from a short - term tight supply - demand situation to an oversupply in the fourth quarter [9]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price weakness of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to change in the short term. The supply of the fuel oil market is generally loose, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply in the Asia - Pacific market is expected to increase. Domestic low - sulfur fuel oil prices are also under pressure, but the new export quota may support the price [160]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Naphtha Part - **Supply**: With OPEC's production increase, the Middle East export center has risen. Russian exports are expected to remain stable, and the arbitrage cargo in Asia will decrease after September [9]. - **Demand**: Weekly Northeast Asian naphtha imports have decreased, but ethylene cracking profit has rebounded, and propane cracking economy has weakened, which is beneficial to the increase of naphtha demand [9]. - **Price and Valuation**: Asian gasoline - naphtha spread is 64 dollars/ton (+6 dollars/ton), European gasoline - naphtha spread is 143 dollars/ton (+7 dollars/ton), and Asian aromatics reforming profit is 27 dollars/ton (+11 dollars/ton) [9]. - **Balance Sheet**: The supply side may see a slight reduction in arbitrage cargo, and the demand side is expected to increase. The market is expected to continue de - stocking in the long term [91]. Ethylene Part - **Global Capacity and Logistics**: In 2025, the growth of global ethylene cracking capacity is mainly concentrated in China. Asia is the main pricing area, with clear import and export routes [107][109]. - **Price and Profit**: This week, the domestic ethylene price rebounded, and the profit of downstream derivatives was compressed. Overseas ethylene derivatives' profit was in a low - level shock [110][116]. - **Balance Sheet**: The supply and demand of domestic ethylene increased this week. The supply - demand relationship in September will tighten, but it will gradually ease after October [135]. Olefin - Aromatic Association - **Aromatic Relative Valuation**: This week, with the significant decline of crude oil, the relative valuation of downstream aromatics to upstream has rebounded. Overseas aromatic valuation has increased, and the spread with Asia has slightly widened [144][148]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Supply**: The global fuel oil supply is generally loose. Middle East exports are expected to increase in August, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific market is expected to rise [160]. - **Demand**: The port bunkering demand for low - sulfur fuel oil in China is weak, and the demand in the Singapore market is also sluggish [160]. - **Inventory**: The Singapore market has entered a high - inventory state, and the spot digestion is difficult [160]. - **Price and Spread**: The price of fuel oil continues to decline, and the LU's previous strength has further weakened. The FU and LU's near - term contango structure will continue [160].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the text regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report Gold and Silver - This week, London gold rose 2.57%, and London silver rose 5.95%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 92.5 to 88.5. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.88%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.23%. The US dollar index was at 98.08. The price fluctuation of COMEX gold was mainly due to the expected tariff on Swiss gold, but this tariff transaction is likely temporary. It is recommended to focus on cross - market arbitrage of COMEX - SHFE and COMEX - LBMA, with the main direction of narrowing the spread. Overall, it is difficult to predict the trend of gold and silver, and they are generally in a range - bound state [6]. Copper - The fundamental situation of copper is weak, but there is still macro - risk sentiment, and the price is oscillating. Global total inventory has increased significantly, with a notable increase in LME inventory. The spot premium of domestic copper has weakened, and the arrival premium of Southeast Asian copper has declined. Although there is macro - uncertainty, it does not constitute a negative factor. In trading strategies, unilateral operations should be cautious, and term positive spreads of forward contracts are favorable based on the long - term inventory depletion logic [86][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Conditions - Gold and silver prices rebounded this week. The gold - silver ratio decreased, and the 10 - year TIPS declined. The US dollar index was at 98.08 [6]. Transaction - related Data - **Price and Spread**: COMEX - LBMA spread widened due to tariff expectations but converged at the end of Friday. Overseas and domestic gold and silver price spreads, month - to - month spreads, and cross - market spreads all showed certain changes [6][16]. - **Inventory and Position**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.13 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 55.5%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.17 million ounces to 506.49 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio dropped to 37.6%. Gold futures inventory increased by 300 tons, and silver futures inventory decreased by 25.57 tons to 1158 tons. ETF inventories of gold and silver increased [44][46][48]. - **Other Indicators**: The gold 1M lease rate was - 0.23%, and the silver 1M lease rate was 1.77%. The correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and 10YTIPS continued to decline [61][66]. Copper Market Conditions - The price of copper was in an oscillating state. The global total inventory increased, with a significant increase in LME inventory. The market has strong expectations for interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index declined [86][90]. Transaction - related Data - **Price and Spread**: LME copper spot discount widened, domestic copper spot premium weakened, and the arrival premium of Southeast Asian copper declined. The term structure of Shanghai copper weakened, and the COMEX copper C structure narrowed [90][102]. - **Inventory and Position**: Global total copper inventory increased, with a notable increase in LME inventory. The positions of Shanghai copper, LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper all decreased, and the CFTC non - commercial long net position decreased [90][103]. - **Supply - related Data**: The tight supply of copper concentrates has been alleviated, and the spot TC has increased marginally. The scrap - refined copper spread of recycled copper is weak, and the import loss has widened. The production of refined copper has increased more than expected, and imports have increased [90]. - **Demand - related Data**: In July, the operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The processing fees of copper rods and tubes are at relatively low levels in the same period of history. The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains low, and the finished product inventory of copper rods has decreased [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Market sentiment has cooled, and attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections. The anti - involution sentiment has eased, and the expected positive - feedback trading has weakened. The black产业链 shows that the demand for steel in the off - season remains flat, with good profits and low inventory. The downward trend of hot metal is slow, and the negative - feedback transmission is not smooth [6][8]. - Iron Ore: Carbon elements are absorbing the profits of the steel chain again, and the ore price is fluctuating within a narrow range. Although overseas shipments have declined slightly, downstream demand remains high. Policy factors may tilt the profit distribution towards carbon elements, but the ore price has strong support [75][77]. - Coal and Coke: The supply expectation remains tight, and the prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. Supply disruptions have occurred, and the market's expectation of further tightening of the fundamentals is strengthening. The expected improvement in corporate profits due to anti - involution policies is still strong [126][127]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Rebar - Basis and Spread: The spread is approaching the risk - free window. Anti - arbitrage should take profit, and attention should be paid to positive arbitrage. Last week, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3340 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 127 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 73 yuan/ton [17][20]. - Demand: New housing transactions remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. The demand is in the off - season, and indicators such as cement shipments have declined seasonally. High profits have stimulated steel mills to resume production, leading to an accumulation of steel inventory [21][25][27]. - Production Profit: Due to the revision of anti - involution policy expectations, the profits of steel mills have decreased. Last week, the spot profit of rebar was 289 yuan/ton, and the profit of the main contract was 249 yuan/ton [34][38]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Basis and Spread: Anti - arbitrage should take profit and focus on positive arbitrage. Last week, the spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3450 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 22 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 1 yuan/ton [40][44]. - Demand: The demand has weakened month - on - month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the off - season. The internal - external price difference has converged, and the export window has closed. Speculative demand has declined, and inventory accumulation has accelerated [45][48][51]. - Production Profit: Due to the revision of anti - involution policy expectations, the profits of steel mills have decreased. Last week, the spot profit of hot - rolled coil was 231 yuan/ton, and the profit of the main contract was 314 yuan/ton [58]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply: Overseas shipments have decreased slightly, with Vale and Fortescue contributing the main decline. The shipments of non - mainstream countries have increased month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in North China is still low [76][90][98]. - Demand: The decline in hot metal is small, and the output of the five major steel products is still significantly higher than that of the same period last year. The arrival volume of scrap steel is higher than the same period, and the scrap - iron price difference has further decreased [101][103]. - Inventory: The total port inventory has increased slightly, and the pellet inventory is still being rapidly depleted [107][109]. - Contract and Spot Performance: The price of the main 09 contract has been fluctuating strongly, and the spot price has basically followed the futures price, with high - grade ore prices performing relatively strongly [79][83]. - Downstream Profit: The prices of coking coal and coke are strong, and the profit indicators of steel products have declined from high levels [111]. - Price Spread: The import high - medium grade price spread and the domestic - PB price spread have continued to widen. The 9 - 1 spread has continued to narrow, and the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts has narrowed below the level of the same period last year [113][116][119]. 3.3 Coal and Coke - Supply: Supply disruptions have occurred. The output of Fenwei raw coal has decreased slightly, and the average daily vehicle clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal remains above 1000 vehicles [128]. - Demand: The sentiment in the spot market is still cautious. Although the futures market is strong, downstream and speculative trading is relatively cautious, but the hot metal output remains at a relatively high level [128]. - Macro: The latest CPI data has increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year increase has decreased. The month - on - month decline in PPI has narrowed, but the year - on - year decline has widened. Anti - involution policies have continued to be implemented in multiple industries, which may improve the market's expectations for the future profits and demand of steel - related downstream industries [128].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, it is expected to trade in a narrow - range with limited upside and downside, and investors should focus on range - bound trading and double - selling option strategies. The support from the ore end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts price elasticity. [4] - For stainless steel, the price is expected to oscillate as the multi - empty game intensifies. Bulls focus on macro - expectations and marginal improvements, while bears focus on weak reality and short - term valuations. [5] - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high levels in the short term, following coking coal in the short run, and pay attention to the upstream factory resumption rhythm. [28][33] - For polysilicon, the market sentiment has cooled, and the price may correct. It is recommended to buy on dips in the third quarter. [28][34] - For lithium carbonate, due to the shutdown of the Jianxiawo mine, the price is expected to rise. If overseas supply increases to fill the gap, the price may fall after the project resumes. [54][56] - For palm oil, with strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on dips. [2][71] - For soybean oil, new export drivers have emerged, and investors should pay attention to the results of Sino - US negotiations. [2][72] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Outlook - Nickel price is expected to trade in a narrow range, with limited upside due to increasing global refined nickel inventory and long - term low - cost supply expectations, but difficult to fall sharply in the short term. [4] - Stainless steel price will oscillate as the multi - empty game intensifies, with bulls and bears having different focuses. [5] Inventory Changes - Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons. [6][7] - Nickel - iron inventory at the end of July decreased by 10% month - on - month but increased by 56% year - on - year. [8] - Stainless steel social total inventory decreased by 0.44% week - on - week. [8] Market News - Multiple events such as potential export restrictions, project startups, environmental violations, and policy changes in Indonesia have occurred. [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Trends - Industrial silicon futures oscillated strongly, while spot prices declined. Polysilicon futures rose and then fell, and spot transactions showed no significant improvement. [28] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Industrial silicon industry inventory turned to accumulation, with increased production in the southwest and northwest regions. The demand from polysilicon and organic silicon sectors increased marginally. [29][30] - Polysilicon supply increased in the short term, and inventory started to accumulate. The demand from the silicon wafer sector increased slightly, but the upstream price increase was not smoothly transmitted to the downstream. [30][31] Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the upstream factory resumption rhythm, and it is recommended to short at high levels. The expected price range next week is 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton. [32][33] - Polysilicon: The price may correct, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the third quarter. The expected price range next week is 47,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. [34] Lithium Carbonate Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures prices increased significantly, and the basis of long - term contracts turned negative. [54] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The Jianxiawo mine of CATL will stop production, and there is no short - term resumption plan. The supply of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate from overseas increased, and the demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets continued to recover. The social inventory increased, with upstream de - stocking and downstream inventory accumulation. [55] Market Outlook - The price is expected to rise due to the mine shutdown. If overseas supply fills the gap, the price may fall after the project resumes. The expected price range of the futures main contract is 75,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton. [56][57] Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Market Outlook - Palm oil: With strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on dips. [2][71] - Soybean oil: New export drivers have emerged, and investors should pay attention to the results of Sino - US negotiations. [2][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For aluminum, it maintains a convergent oscillation pattern with volatility at a historical low. There is no bearish view on industrial metals currently, and the core strategy for aluminum is to wait for buying opportunities on price dips, unless subsequent inventory accumulation is excessive. The market lacks a smooth trading logic, leading to a decline in overall market positions and extremely low volatility. Attention should be paid to the duration of low volatility, and there will be opportunities to re - enter long - volatility positions in the future [3]. - For alumina, there are obvious differences in market views. Although some expect a significant relaxation of available spot goods around mid - August, there may be uncertainties. The market is also waiting for potential short - term production cuts in northern capacities in late August. It is believed that alumina may reach a certain balance at the current price level in the short term, but caution is needed if the spot price confirms an inflection point [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End: Spreads, Volume, and Positions 3.1.1 Term Spreads - This week, the spot premium of A00 aluminum weakened. The average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum changed from - 20 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) changed from - 15 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton. - The spot premium of alumina also weakened. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from - 63 yuan/ton to 51 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina changed from 83 yuan/ton to 71 yuan/ton [9]. 3.1.2 Monthly Spreads - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of SHFE aluminum narrowed [10]. 3.1.3 Positions - The position volume of the main SHFE aluminum contract decreased slightly, and the trading volume continued to decline. - The position volume of the main alumina contract decreased slightly but remained at a historical high, and the trading volume decreased significantly [12]. 3.1.4 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - The position - to - inventory ratio of the main SHFE aluminum contract declined, and that of alumina continued to fall and is at a historical low [18]. 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials 3.2.1 Bauxite - As of August 8, the port inventory of imported bauxite in the Steel Union weekly data decreased, with a week - on - week increase of 400,000 tons, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of July, the port inventory and inventory days of Chinese bauxite in the阿拉丁 data continued to show an upward trend. - As of July, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises in China increased by 1.19 million tons month - on - month, and the bauxite inventory days in alumina plants continued to decline. - As of August 8, the weekly bauxite shipments from Guinea ports decreased slightly by 445,700 tons week - on - week, and those from Australian ports decreased slightly by 408,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly bauxite floating inventory in Guinea decreased slightly by 1.7711 million tons week - on - week, while that in Australia increased slightly by 167,700 tons week - on - week. - As of August 1, the bauxite shipments from Australia's Weipa + Gove ports increased slightly by 64,600 tons week - on - week, and those from Guinea's Boffa + Kamsar ports increased slightly by 360,500 tons week - on - week. The bauxite arrivals under the SMM data increased by 414,600 tons week - on - week [23][28][29][34]. 3.2.2 Alumina - The national total alumina inventory continued to accumulate, with a week - on - week increase of 62,000 tons. Alumina plant inventory remained flat, electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased slightly, port inventory increased, and platform/in - transit inventory decreased. - As of August 7, the national alumina inventory was 3.285 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 42,000 tons. Alumina plant inventory increased by 19,000 tons, electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased by 23,000 tons, port inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and yard/platform/in - transit inventory increased slightly by 2,000 tons [43][47]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - According to seasonal patterns, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory usually reaches its peak in the fifth or sixth week after the holiday and then enters a cycle of oscillatory inventory reduction. As of August 7, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 549,000 tons, continuing to accumulate [48]. 3.2.4 Aluminum Rod - This week, the spot and in - plant inventories of downstream aluminum rods showed a slight reduction [54]. 3.2.5 Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil - As of July, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles remained basically flat, while the raw - material inventory ratio decreased significantly. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate - foil decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio decreased significantly [57]. 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate 3.3.1 Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is mainly stable. As of July, the domestic bauxite output under the SMM data increased slightly. Imported bauxite supply is an important factor driving the growth of total domestic bauxite supply. - In July, the bauxite output in Shanxi under the Steel Union data increased slightly by 120,000 tons month - on - month, while that under the SMM data decreased slightly by 42,500 tons month - on - month. The bauxite output in Henan under the Steel Union data increased slightly by 60,000 tons month - on - month, and that under the SMM data decreased by 32,000 tons month - on - month. The bauxite output in Guangxi under the Steel Union data increased slightly by 40,000 tons month - on - month, and that under the SMM data decreased by 89,400 tons month - on - month [62][67]. 3.3.2 Alumina - The alumina capacity utilization rate remains stable. As of August 8, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 95.8 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.2 million tons in weekly operating capacity. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.851 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 tons, remaining at a high level in recent years. The short - term supply - side loosening pattern of alumina has not been reversed, and alumina prices may continue to be under pressure [71]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of July, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit recovery. As of August 7, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum under the Steel Union data was 845,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 50 tons, maintaining a high level in the past six years. With the terminal consumption entering the off - season, the aluminum - water ratio has a seasonal decline, and the ingot - casting volume of aluminum ingots is expected to continue to increase month - on - month, potentially increasing supply pressure [76]. 3.3.4 Downstream Processing - This week, the output of recycled aluminum rods decreased by 730 tons week - on - week. The load of aluminum rod plants decreased slightly week - on - week, and the weekly output of aluminum rods decreased by 2,800 tons week - on - week. The output of aluminum plate - foil decreased slightly by 3,250 tons week - on - week. - This week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1% to 58.7%. There was a divergence in operating rates due to insufficient orders during the traditional off - season. The operating rate of aluminum plates remained flat, with enterprises reporting a significant decline in export orders in July. The operating rate of aluminum foils remained flat, mainly affected by weak terminal demand, export decline, and summer high - temperature holidays, with the industry operating at a low level. - The operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly. Although some enterprises had new orders for automotive aluminum, the building materials sector continued to be weak, and the order volume in the photovoltaic sector continued to decline, putting pressure on enterprise operations. The operating rate of aluminum cables increased slightly, but the speed of matching orders from the State Grid was still slow, and the procurement rhythm slowed down significantly. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloys remained flat, affected by the off - season effect, low - price supply shocks, and potential production cuts by terminal automobile enterprises due to high - temperature holidays or inventory pressure. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased slightly, as surplus aluminum water was mostly used for the production of primary aluminum alloys under the requirement of aluminum - water alloying [79][80][85]. 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials 3.4.1 Alumina - This week, the alumina profit decreased slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina under the Steel Union data was 418 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit continued to recover. The alumina profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better due to relatively firm cost [87]. 3.4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Electrolytic aluminum profit remains at a high level. However, the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts leading to increased risk - aversion sentiment, and the volatility of trade policies have increased uncertainties and disrupted market expectations [97]. 3.4.3 Downstream Processing - In terms of downstream processing profit, the aluminum rod processing fee decreased slightly by 50 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [98]. 3.5 Consumption: Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, and Apparent Demand 3.5.1 Import Profit and Loss - The import profit and loss of alumina and SHFE aluminum have widened [107]. 3.5.2 Export - In July 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased slightly by 52,000 tons month - on - month. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed materials are divergent. The export demand for aluminum products is hindered by trade policy adjustments and requires market games, which may drag down the demand side [109][111]. 3.5.3 Consumption Absolute Quantity - The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, and the automobile production increased month - on - month [116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - fiber (PF): In the short - term, it is in a volatile market with limited downside space. In the medium - term, it is weak. The demand is expected to improve in mid - to late August, and the processing fee is expected to expand as the peak season approaches [7]. - Bottle chips (PR): In the short - term, the downside space is limited, and there may be a stable rebound. In the medium - term, the pressure is still obvious. There is a de - stocking pattern from July to August, but there are pressure factors after the end of production cuts and during the peak season [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Short - fiber (PF) 3.1.1 Valuation and Profit - Spot fluctuations are small, the futures market is weak, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The futures processing fee is still weak [101][106]. - The current spot processing fee is 900 - 1000 yuan/ton, and a processing fee below 900 yuan/ton is considered undervalued [7]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Operation - **Supply**: Based on low processing fees and inventory pressure, factories maintain high - level production. The average factory operating rate this week is 90.6%, and the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning is 95.3%. It is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the future [7]. - **Demand**: The terminal weaving operating rate has bottomed out and is rising. Short - term demand is still weak, but there is replenishment at low prices. The 1.4D equity inventory is 10.6 days, and the physical inventory is 23 days. Sino - US trade negotiations may lead to an increase in foreign trade orders after the new round of tariffs is implemented in August [7]. 3.1.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: None - **Inter - period**: None - **Inter - variety**: Go long on PF and short on PR when the spread is below 450 [7] 3.2 Bottle chips (PR) 3.2.1 Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee has strengthened to 400 - 450 yuan/ton, which is relatively reasonable. There is increasing demand for short - covering or speculative purchases when the price is below 4900 yuan/ton [10]. - Aggregate costs have decreased, and export profits are fluctuating weakly [50]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Operation - **Supply**: After this round of production cuts, the processing fee has not risen above the factory cost. Factories are expected to maintain the current production - cut intensity until the end of August and gradually resume production in September, but may still maintain partial production cuts. The operating rate this week is 79% [8]. - **Demand**: Domestic downstream operating rates remain high, and there is restocking at low prices. Ocean freight has declined, and the impact on exports from July to August has decreased. There is a slight de - stocking pattern from July to August, and the factory inventory is about 17 days this week, showing a month - on - month decrease [8][9]. 3.2.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: None - **Inter - period**: Go long on the 10 - 11 or 10 - 12 spreads at low prices - **Inter - variety**: Go long on PF and short on PR at low prices [11] 3.2.4 Other Aspects - **"Anti - involution" Impact**: It mainly leads to potential cost increases, and has little impact on supply as most bottle - chip devices are less than 10 years old [14]. - **Base and Spread**: The emotional premium has declined, and the basis is strongly volatile [24]. - **Price and Spread**: The price has slightly decreased this week, with the domestic price at 5920 - 5950 yuan/ton and the FOB price at 770 - 795 US dollars/ton. The substitution relationship with PVC and PP shows different characteristics [27][30][31]. - **Production and Operation Rate**: Since 2024, the production capacity has been expanding, and the current effective production capacity is 2.168 million tons. This week, the bottle - chip load has remained at 79.3%, and the weekly production is still at a high level on a month - on - month basis [35]. - **Raw Material Operation**: There are new PTA device overhauls, and MEG has also shown certain operating characteristics [42][49]. - **Cost and Profit**: Aggregate costs have decreased, the bottle - chip spot processing fee has been repaired, and export profits are fluctuating weakly [50]. - **Inventory**: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has decreased, and the domestic polyester bottle - chip factory inventory has dropped to 17 days. There is a de - stocking pattern of social inventory from July to August [55][60]. - **Device Changes**: The production - cut expectation has been extended. Some factories plan to restart in September, and there are also new device investment plans [61]. - **Demand**: Downstream operating rates are at a high level and slightly increasing. Beverage consumption from January to June 2025 is relatively weak year - on - year, but there are new production lines being put into operation. Edible oil demand remains neutral, and sheet demand is average, but supermarket consumption has improved month - on - month [64][70][73][76]. - **Global Trade Flow**: Overseas bottle - chip production capacity has little growth, and China's bottle - chip exports have multiple trade flows [80]. - **Export Situation**: In June 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 657,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The short - term is affected by ocean freight, but the trend is strong [83]. - **Anti - Dumping Policy**: Multiple countries have implemented anti - dumping policies on Chinese bottle chips [94]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: There is a tight balance from July to August, and inventory will accumulate again after September [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the pulp price corrected, and the paper profit slightly recovered. The market price of double - offset paper declined slightly, and the decline rate narrowed. It is expected that the demand will not improve significantly next week, and the market price will decline slightly. The current pre - tax and after - tax gross margins of double - offset paper are negative, but the paper mill's profit has slightly recovered with the pulp price correction [51]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - The inventory days of domestic double - offset paper decreased by 0.90% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.41 percentage points week - on - week. Social orders changed little, and dealers were cautious in stocking up, with the paper mill's shipment rhythm being average [6]. - The operating load rate of domestic double - offset paper was 49.18%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points compared with last week. Most paper mills were operating normally, but some production lines in Jiangsu were shut down, leading to a decline in the industry's operating rate [6]. - Asia Pulp & Paper Co., Ltd. announced an increase of 150 yuan/ton in the order - taking price of broad - leaf pulp, only for long - term contract customers [6]. - Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton increase in the FOB price of bleached eucalyptus broad - leaf pulp "Goldfish" in the Asian market in August 2025 [6]. 3.2 Market Trends - On August 8, the average price of 70g high - white double - offset paper was 4993.75 yuan/ton, with no change compared with the previous day and last week [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of some double - offset paper products in Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased or remained unchanged. The pre - tax and after - tax gross margins of double - offset paper increased by 17 yuan/ton and 15 yuan/ton respectively [10]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Data 3.3.1 Industry Capacity - In 2024, the domestic double - offset paper industry's capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [19]. 3.3.2 Weekly Production and Capacity Utilization - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry's output was 165,300 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 49.2% [24]. 3.3.3 Weekly Sales and Inventory - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry's sales volume was 168,400 tons, and the enterprise inventory was 343,600 tons [28]. 3.3.4 Import and Export - In June, the domestic double - offset paper import volume was about 15,000 tons, and the export volume was about 66,000 tons [36]. 3.3.5 Inventory Situation - In terms of inventory days, Central China > East China > South China; the social inventory pressure is higher than the enterprise inventory [42]. 3.3.6 Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [47]. 3.4 Market Judgment - **Supply**: Domestically, the output this week was 165,300 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 49.2%. In June, the import volume was about 15,000 tons [51]. - **Demand**: Domestically, the sales volume this week was 168,400 tons. In June, the export volume was about 66,000 tons [51]. - **Price**: The average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white double - offset paper decreased by 0.08% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed by 1.82 percentage points. The average price of 70g wood - pulp natural - white double - offset paper decreased by 0.39% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.80 percentage points [51]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the demand will not improve significantly next week, dealers will sell goods flexibly, and the market price will decline slightly [51]. - **Valuation**: Based on the current pulp price, the pre - tax gross margin of double - offset paper is about - 36 yuan/ton, and the after - tax gross margin is about - 205 yuan/ton [51]. - **Strategy**: The futures variety has not been launched yet [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment has warmed up, and the futures price of cast aluminum alloy has shown a slightly stronger oscillation. Due to the deepening of the traditional off - season, downstream enterprises are on high - temperature holidays, which may lead to further production cuts. With the accumulation of social inventory, off - season pressure will gradually emerge. However, cost support remains, so the short - term price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation [6] - As of August 8, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social inventory decreased by 0.09 million tons to 10.91 million tons compared with the previous week, but the inventory is still at a high level. In July, domestic automobile sales increased steadily, and the export situation of Chinese automobiles has been favorable since the second quarter [6] Summary by Directory Supply Side - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. The refined - scrap price difference shows an oscillating trend [9][14][19] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy has slightly increased, and the gap between ADC12 and A00 has converged. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy has weakened and shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has remained flat, while the monthly operating rate has rebounded. ADC12 is mainly made from scrap aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in an average loss. The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has decreased rapidly, while the social inventory has been accumulating. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [28][33][38][39][44][46] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum Rod - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum rods are presented. The production of recycled aluminum rods in different regions has different proportions, and the same is true for the inventory in different regions [49][50][52] Demand Side - Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles has rebounded, which has been transmitted to die - casting consumption. The production data of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and some household appliances are also provided, along with the year - on - year change in PPI of auto parts and the inventory warning index of automobiles [56][57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market supply and demand for coal and coke remain tight, and the expectation of further tightening of the fundamentals is strengthening. Coupled with the strong trading sentiment on the macro - front and the continuous implementation of anti - involution related policies in multiple industries, the room for a deep decline in coal and coke prices in the short term is limited [3][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint - **Supply**: Supply disruptions have materialized. News of production restrictions in the production areas is constantly fermenting, leading to a slight decline in overall supply. Fenwei's raw coal production decreased by 1.1% week - on - week to 8.59 million tons. The average daily number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port for imported Mongolian coal remained above 1,000 [3][5] - **Demand**: Although the futures market is running strongly, the trading in the downstream and speculative sectors is relatively cautious, and the online auction failure rate has increased slightly. However, the molten iron output remains at a relatively high level [5] - **Macro**: The expectation of long - term improvement in corporate profits brought about by anti - involution is still strong. The latest CPI data increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year; the month - on - month decline in PPI narrowed, but the year - on - year decline widened. Anti - involution related policies have been continuously implemented in multiple industries, which may improve the market's expectations for the future long - term profits and demand of industries related to the steel downstream [5] Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 858.95 (- 9.73); FW clean coal 439.01 (- 5.05) | Independent coking plants' daily average 52.02 (+ 0.19); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 46.80 (- 0.17) | | Demand | Molten iron output 240.32 (- 0.39) | Molten iron output 240.32 (- 0.39) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 14.1; Mine raw coal - 6.8; Independent coking - 4.8; Mine clean coal - 2.6; Steel mill coking + 4.9; Port - 4.77; FW Port - 5.0 | MS total inventory - 8.3; Independent coking - 3.9; Steel mill - 7.4; Port + 3.1 | | Profit | Commodity coal 440 (+ 22) | Average coking enterprise profit - 16 (+ 29) | | Warehouse Receipt | Zhongyang Gengyang 1308; Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1139 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1508 | [7] 01 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply - Coal Washing Plants and Mines**: This section presents data on the开工 rate of sample coal washing plants, daily average clean coal output, Fenwei's raw coal production, and clean coal production over different time periods [9] - **Supply - Monthly**: It shows data on monthly coking bituminous coal production and coking clean coal production [10] - **Supply - Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance**: Data on the customs - cleared volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port, Mandula Port, and the total customs - cleared volume of three major ports are provided [12][14][16] - **Inventory - Pithead**: This week, the raw coal production of sample mines decreased by 97,300 tons week - on - week to 858,950 tons. Data on raw coal and clean coal inventory totals are also presented [20][21][22] - **Inventory - Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 2.8211 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 102,300 tons. Data on coking coal inventory at various ports and the total inventory of six ports are shown [25][26][27] - **Inventory - Coking Plant**: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 - independent - coking - plant data, are provided. Data on coking coal inventory in different regions of 230 independent coking plants are also presented [28][30] - **Inventory - Coking Plant - By Capacity - Available Days**: Data on the available days of coking coal inventory in 230 independent coking plants by different capacity levels are shown [32] - **Inventory - Steel Mill**: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and steel mill coking plants, including regional data, are provided [33] 02 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply - Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant**: Data on the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 - independent - coking - plant data, and by different capacity levels and regions, are presented [35] - **Supply - Capacity Utilization - Steel Mill**: Data on the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises for coke production are provided [37] - **Supply - Output - Coking Plant**: Data on the daily average coke output of 230 independent coking plants and full - sample independent coking enterprises are presented [39] - **Supply - Output - Steel Mill**: Data on the daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises are provided [41] - **Inventory - Coking Plant**: Data on the inventory of coke in independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 - independent - coking - plant data, are presented [43] - **Inventory - Steel Mill**: Data on the inventory and average available days of coke in 247 steel mill coking plants are provided, including regional data [44][47][48] - **Inventory - Full - Sample Aggregate**: Data on the total coke inventory of the full - sample are presented [51] - **Demand - Pig Iron**: Data on the coke supply - demand difference, daily average supply, daily average demand, and molten iron output of 247 steel enterprises are provided [53] - **Profit**: Data on the coke's plate profit, spot profit, and average profit of independent coking enterprises are presented [56][57] 03 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: Information on the futures market of coking coal 2509 and 2601, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest, is provided [61] - **Coke Futures**: Information on the futures market of coke 2509 and 2601, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest, is provided [64] - **Coal and Coke Month - Spread**: Data on the month - spread of coking coal (JM2509 - JM2601) and coke (J2509 - J2601) are presented [67] - **Coal and Coke Spot**: Data on the spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are provided [70] - **Coal and Coke Basis**: By August 8, the basis of coking coal was 69.5, and the basis of coke was - 150.5. Data on the basis of coking coal and coke are presented [73][74]