Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon should focus on the restart rhythm of upstream factories. In the short - term, the long - and short - term logics are quite different. Before the large - scale restart of upstream factories, the market trend tends to follow coking coal futures, but the general fundamental direction is downward. It is recommended to short at high levels in the short term. The expected trading range for next week is 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton [6][7] - The sentiment in the polysilicon market has cooled down, and there is a driving force for the market to correct. Although it is a policy - driven market, there is still a short - term correction drive. It is recommended to buy on dips in the third quarter. The expected trading range for next week is 47000 - 54000 yuan/ton [7] - Considering the announcement of the second batch of registered brands of polysilicon, a long - short spread strategy for PS2511/PS2512 can be adopted. It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon manufacturers adopt a selling hedging strategy [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The futures market was oscillating strongly, mainly affected by the rise of coking coal futures and an industry self - discipline meeting. It closed at 8710 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot market prices declined, with the price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon at 8550 yuan/ton (down 500 yuan week - on - week) and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon at 8550 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan week - on - week) [1] - Polysilicon: The futures market rose first and then fell. It was initially boosted by the rise of coking coal futures, but then declined due to the blocked negotiation progress at a Beijing meeting. It closed at 50790 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot market had some transactions, but the transaction prices did not show obvious improvement [1] 2. Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory changed from destocking to restocking. The production in the southwest region continued to increase, and some factories in Xinjiang resumed production, leading to a marginal increase in the overall weekly output. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 million tons week - on - week, while the social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons and the factory inventory decreased by 0.14 million tons, resulting in an overall increase in industry inventory [2] - Demand side: The short - term downstream demand increased marginally. The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The weekly production of polysilicon continued to increase, and the production of organic silicon also increased, but the terminal consumption of organic silicon did not improve significantly. The aluminum alloy sector had rigid demand orders, and the export market was mainly for rigid needs [3] Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly output continued to increase. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang resumed production, while some in Xinjiang shut down. The production schedule for August is expected to reach 125,000 tons. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers began to increase, and there was inventory pressure on the upstream [3] - Demand side: After a short - term repair of silicon wafer profits, the production increased. The short - term inventory of silicon wafers was relatively low, leading to price increases and production expansions by some silicon wafer manufacturers. The price increase of silicon materials was gradually transmitted to silicon wafers and battery cells, but not to components yet [4] 3. Market Outlook Industrial Silicon - The views on industrial silicon at the Kunming meeting were divided. Bulls believed that before the large - scale restart of northwest factories, the fundamentals were improving, and the hedging resistance was small. Bears believed that the restart of northwest factories was likely, which would lead to an oversupply situation [5] - The restart progress of upstream factories is crucial. If there is a large - scale restart, the supply - demand will turn to oversupply, which will drive the market further down [6] Polysilicon - The market sentiment has cooled down. The announcement of the second batch of registered brands may lead to the exit of long - position funds. However, the two approved brands have stopped production or are under technical renovation, so the impact on short - term warehouse receipts is limited. Next week's meeting information will bring policy expectations and support the market. There is a short - term correction drive, but it is a policy - driven market, and the third - quarter strategy is to buy on dips [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pigs: Weak Reality, Strong Expectations, Trend Reverse Spread Confirmation" [1] - Date: August 10, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week (8.04 - 8.10), the spot market for pigs showed weak performance. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 36.05 yuan/kg, the price of pigs in Henan dropped from 14.43 yuan/kg last week to 13.88 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide decreased from 1628 yuan/head last week to 1614 yuan/head. Supply was relatively loose, and demand was at a low level. The average national slaughter weight this week was 124.04KG, a 0.19% decrease from last week. In the futures market, pig futures prices fluctuated weakly. The LH2509 contract had a high of 13980 yuan/ton, a low of 13770 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13930 yuan/ton, down from 14055 yuan/ton last week. The basis of the LH2509 contract was -50 yuan/ton, down from 375 yuan/ton last week [2]. - Next week (8.11 - 8.17), the spot price of pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. In August, the supply pressure is expected to be large, and demand growth is limited. The spot price may reach a new low this year. In the futures market, the LH2509 contract price closed at 13930 yuan/ton on August 8. The spot price at the end and beginning of the month was lower than expected, and the basis may gradually turn to a contango delivery structure. Attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities of the March contract, and stop - profit and stop - loss should be noted. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [3][4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data, Basis and Spread - This week's basis was -50 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was 375 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Supply - This week's average slaughter weight was 124.04KG (last week: 124.28KG). Monthly pork production was 529.5 tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase; in June, pork imports were 8.84 million tons, a 5.6% month - on - month decrease [13]. 3. Demand - Not elaborated in detail in the content other than the general description of low demand in the market review and outlook.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend due to lack of substantial positive fundamental factors and concerns about over - estimated exports by USDA [19] - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain volatile. Factors such as stable downstream demand and low commercial cotton inventory support the futures, but potential "low - cost - performance" warehouse receipt deliveries in September, expectations of a bumper new crop and early listing, and a cooling financial market sentiment limit its short - term upward momentum [19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract opened at 66.36, reached a high of 67.72, a low of 65.88, and closed at 66.64, up 0.22 with a 0.33% increase. Trading volume was 116,642 lots, an increase of 2,926 lots, and open interest was 159,736 lots, an increase of 2,400 lots [4] - Zhengzhou cotton main contract opened at 13,585, reached a high of 13,730, a low of 13,535, and closed at 13,640, up 55 with a 0.40% increase. Trading volume was 640,948 lots, a decrease of 909,082 lots, and open interest was 260,796 lots, a decrease of 65,017 lots [4] - Cotton yarn main contract opened at 19,730, reached a high of 19,855, a low of 19,590, and closed at 19,605, down 135 with a 0.68% decrease. Trading volume was 30,490 lots, a decrease of 26,111 lots, and open interest was 17,053 lots, an increase of 12,743 lots [4] 3.2基本面 3.2.1国际棉花情况 - ICE cotton was weak and oscillating. It rose first and then fell this week. Short - covering at the beginning of the week drove the rebound, but lack of fundamental drivers, good growth of new US cotton crops, poor US cotton exports, and the decline of other agricultural products led to a decline in the second half of the week. After falling below 66 cents per pound, bargain - hunting buying emerged [5] - As of the week ending July 31, 2024/25 US upland cotton carried over 0.39 million tons weekly; 2025/26 US upland cotton signed 2.48 million tons weekly, with Vietnam signing 1.21 million tons and Peru signing 0.46 million tons. 2024/25 US upland cotton shipped 4.14 million tons weekly, a 21% week - on - week decrease and a 10% decrease from the four - week average [5] - In India, the sowing progress was slightly slower than last year. As of August 1, the cotton planting area was 10.6 million hectares, compared with 10.8 million hectares in the same period of 2024. The US will impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports on August 27 [6] - In Brazil, July exports were lower than expected. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso increased by about 8.5 percentage points to 18.3% this week, compared with 34.7% in the same period last year. Rain delayed the first - crop harvest and raised concerns about cotton quality, but was beneficial to the second - crop yield. In Bahia, the picking was progressing smoothly, and about 40% was completed. The average yield might be lower than expected, and the July export volume was expected to be about 127,000 tons [6] - In Turkey, textile enterprises faced multiple pressures and weak cotton demand. Since August 8, a 15% tariff has been imposed on Turkish exports to the US. The local textile and clothing industry faced high inflation, rising costs, and weak demand. The spinning mill operating rate was about 50% - 60% and might decline further [7] - In Pakistan, the tariff on exports to the US was lower than expected at 19%. As of July 31, the literal market volume was 593,821 bales, an increase of 296,000 bales from the first half of the month. When the US cotton futures price fell below 67 cents per pound, some buyers started to lock in supplies [9] - In Bangladesh, after the tariff on exports to the US was determined, orders recovered. The new additional tariff was 20% on top of the existing 16.5%, lower than the initially proposed 35%. The market's interest in US cotton increased, and some US clothing orders that were previously suspended began to resume [10] 3.2.2国内棉花情况 - Domestic cotton spot prices stabilized, and trading was light. In the week of August 8, spot trading was significantly lighter than last week, with only Monday having relatively good transactions. Spinning mills' procurement intention was weak, mainly for rigid demand [11] - As of August 8, there were 8,252 registered warehouse receipts and 330 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 8,582 lots, equivalent to 360,444 tons. Among the 2024/25 registered warehouse receipts, there were 7,923 lots of Xinjiang cotton and 329 lots of local cotton [11] - The downstream situation improved slightly. The trading volume of the pure - cotton yarn market improved as the downstream gradually recovered. Spinning mills' quotations were mainly stable, with some offering discounts. The profit was gradually stabilizing. The cash - flow loss of inland spinning mills for C32S was about 500 yuan per ton, while Xinjiang spinning mills still had a small profit [12] - In the all - cotton grey fabric market, orders increased, but the overall demand had not improved significantly. The weaving factory operating rate was maintained at 40% - 50%, with partial recovery. The inventory of weaving factories decreased slightly but remained at a high level [12] 3.3基础数据图表 - The report provides charts on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mill cotton inventory (weekly), weaving mill yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprise cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprise cotton cloth inventory (weekly), yarn - spinning enterprise operating rate (weekly), cotton - cloth enterprise operating rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [14][15][16] 3.4操作建议 - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to whether the USDA August supply - demand report will raise the 2025/26 US cotton production and the weekly export data of new US cotton crops [19] - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to policy trends, the delivery game of the 09 contract, the expected opening price of new cotton for the 01 contract, and the actual downstream demand [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures contracts increased significantly, with the long - term contract basis changing from positive to negative. Due to the suspension of production at Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area and no short - term resumption plan, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise significantly. Before overseas mines, lithium carbonate, and lithium sulfate significantly increase to make up for the gap, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain an upward trend. Conversely, the resumption of the project needs to be closely monitored, and after resumption, the price will quickly fall to the price center with increased costs [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Price Trends - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 76,640 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 7,720 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract closed at 76,960 yuan/ton, also a weekly increase of 7,720 yuan/ton. The spot price increased by 550 yuan/ton to 71,900 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2509 contract) decreased by 7,170 yuan/ton to - 4,740 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was - 170 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The spread between the 2509 - 2511 contracts was - 320 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Macro - On August 9, it was learned from multiple market sources that the mining end of Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area will stop production at 12 o'clock tonight. Starting from August 10, the mining end of this mine will stop working, and there is no short - term resumption plan [2] 3.2.2 Supply - From July 28 to August 3, 2025, the total shipment of Australian lithium concentrate to China was 129,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons. In July, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43%, of which 13,600 tons were exported to China, a month - on - month increase of 33% [2] 3.2.3 Demand - This week, the new energy passenger vehicle market continued to recover, with sales of 245,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 3.81% and a year - on - year increase of 9.38%. The new energy penetration rate slightly declined to 53% but still remained at a high level. The winning bid scale of energy storage continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the domestic energy storage market completed a total of 9.0GW/25.8GWh of tendering work, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 34.24% [2] 3.2.4 Inventory - The total social inventory of lithium carbonate increased, with upstream destocking and downstream inventory accumulation. The lithium carbonate inventory was 142,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 692 tons, and the number of futures warehouse receipts increased to 18,800 tons [2] 3.3 Future Market Views - Due to the suspension of production at Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area and no short - term resumption plan, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise significantly. Before overseas mines, lithium carbonate, and lithium sulfate significantly increase to make up for the gap, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain an upward trend. Conversely, the resumption of the project needs to be closely monitored, and after resumption, the price will quickly fall to the price center with increased costs [3] 3.4 Trading Strategies 3.4.1 Single - sided - The price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 75,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton [4] 3.4.2 Inter - period - It is recommended to wait for the structure to strengthen, then consider the upward movement of the single - sided price. With a negative long - term contract basis, the number of warehouse receipts will increase significantly, which is suitable for reverse arbitrage [4] 3.4.3 Hedging - It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging after the price rebounds to a high level, and the hedging ratio should consider the annual output in the second half of the year [4]

Report Date - The report is dated August 10, 2025 [1] Last Week's Views and Logic Palm Oil - Domestic macro - sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but without strong supply themes, the price was hard to rise further and mainly fluctuated at a high level, waiting for the inventory - reduction inflection point in the producing areas. The palm oil 09 contract rose 0.79% last week [2] Soybean Oil - A large number of domestic soybean oil export orders ignited trading enthusiasm, the soybean - palm oil price spread narrowed significantly, and soybean oil showed signs of a catch - up rise. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.52% last week [2] This Week's Views and Logic Palm Oil - Malaysia's inventory peak this year has been gradually digested by the market since April. There is no new significant negative factor in the palm oil fundamentals, and the market has started to trade the inventory - reduction trend in the second half of the year. Domestic macro - sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high [3] - In July, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to be less than 180 tons, and the export volume in the first 25 days was poor, estimated to be less than 140 tons. With the continuous driving effect of European biodiesel, the demand in the producing areas is expected to remain high. Malaysia will continue to accumulate inventory in July, but conservatively estimated not to exceed 2.2 million tons [3] - In Indonesia, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia remains high, and the prices of various palm oil products and bunches in the Indonesian producing areas are high. The sentiment of traders reflected in the CPO export premium is relatively positive, and palm oil is quite resistant to price drops at present [3] - Rumors of Indonesia's B50 policy and export ban are considered to have a low correlation with the recent price increase of palm oil. The production recovery in Indonesia may fall short of expectations again under the strong demand for European biodiesel raw materials, and the inventory will hover between 1.5 and 3 million tons this year [3] - In the consumer areas, except for sunflower oil, the import profit of crude palm oil has been higher than that of crude soybean oil. Channel inventory reconstruction is underway. As long as the monthly import volume can be maintained above 800,000 tons, it is difficult for Malaysia's palm oil inventory to exceed 2.3 million tons [3] - The market has great differences in Malaysia's palm oil production this year. If Malaysia and Indonesia maintain good yields in August as in the same period last year and from April to May this year, there will be greater inventory - accumulation pressure from August to September. If Malaysia's palm oil inventory cannot exceed 2.3 million tons, the market may have gradually digested this year's inventory peak [3] - August is the last window for the release of palm oil supply pressure. If no effective price pressure is formed during this period, it will be difficult for significant negative supply - side factors to appear in the later oil market. If inventory accumulates more than expected from August to September, combined with the concentrated listing of European rapeseed and potential downward pressure on the crude oil side, palm oil may not reflect potential positive factors in the fourth quarter prematurely and may still have room for correction. However, be vigilant about the positive sentiment caused by earlier - than - expected inventory reduction due to lower - than - expected production from August to September [3][4] - The soybean - palm oil price spread does not have the driving force to return to parity this year. Continuously pay attention to opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels [4] Soybean Oil - In mid - to - late July, multiple major producing areas in the US Midwest received good rainfall, which is conducive to the improvement of yield expectations. Before the release of the USDA August report, if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, CBOT soybeans will maintain a weak fluctuation. Only positive news from Sino - US trade negotiations can drive the rebound of US soybeans [4] - The weak domestic situation of soybean oil has been reversed by a large number of recent export orders. Oil mills' crushing operations are maintained at a very high level. Although domestic apparent demand and提货 are poor, oil mills actively export after finding export trade profits. If this trend continues, it is expected to drive the Chinese soybean - palm oil price spread closer to the international spread [4] - If US soybeans for the October shipment have not been actually purchased, there is still some upward space for the monthly spread and Brazilian premiums, and the prices of oil tanks may be underestimated, which may benefit soybean oil [4] - After the high - production period of palm oil in the third - quarter end, if Sino - US trade issues lead to a soybean import gap, there may be potential upward themes for Brazilian premiums, and there may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil [4] Overall View - As the last window for the release of palm oil supply pressure, if the production increase in August fails to form effective price pressure, it will be difficult for significant negative supply - side factors to appear later. Be vigilant about the positive sentiment caused by earlier - than - expected inventory reduction due to lower - than - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia from July to August [5] - The soybean - palm oil price spread does not have the driving force to return to parity this year. Continuously pay attention to opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels [5] - The current driving factors for soybean oil are US soybean weather, the sustainability of soybean oil exports, and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations. After the high - production period of palm oil in the third - quarter end, if Sino - US trade issues lead to a soybean import gap, there may be potential upward themes for Brazilian premiums, and there may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil. Currently, the soybean sector lacks its own effective driving force and mainly follows the trend of the oil sector, and the soybean - palm oil price spread fluctuates in a range with a slightly upward trend [5] Disk Basic Market Data Price and Volume Data - Palm oil main contract: opened at 8,918 yuan/ton, reached a high of 9,076 yuan/ton, a low of 8,746 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The trading volume was 2,637,135 lots, a decrease of 70,357 lots, and the open interest was 305,714 lots, a decrease of 88,427 lots [7] - Soybean oil main contract: opened at 8,274 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,486 yuan/ton, a low of 8,210 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,388 yuan/ton, up 1.52%. The trading volume was 2,707,492 lots, an increase of 5,182 lots, and the open interest was 642,331 lots, an increase of 142,575 lots [7] - Rapeseed oil main contract: opened at 9,516 yuan/ton, reached a high of 9,672 yuan/ton, a low of 9,442 yuan/ton, and closed at 9,574 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The trading volume was 3,475,013 lots, a decrease of 133,717 lots, and the open interest was 140,480 lots, a decrease of 48,633 lots [7] - Malaysian palm oil main contract: opened at 4,180 ringgit/ton, reached a high of 4,304 ringgit/ton, a low of 4,159 ringgit/ton, and closed at 4,254 ringgit/ton, up 0.21% [7] - CBOT soybean oil main contract: opened at 53.89 cents/pound, reached a high of 54.55 cents/pound, a low of 52.29 cents/pound, and closed at 52.43 cents/pound, down 2.73% [7] Spread Data - Rapeseed - soybean 09 spread: closed at 1,174 yuan/ton this week, down 6.08% from last week [7] - Soybean - palm 09 spread: closed at - 580 yuan/ton this week, up 8.81% from last week [7] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: remained unchanged at - 20 yuan/ton [7] - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: closed at 12 yuan/ton this week, down 75.00% from last week [7] - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: closed at 13 yuan/ton this week, down 77.59% from last week [7] Warehouse Receipt Data - Palm oil warehouse receipts: remained unchanged at 570 lots [7] - Soybean oil warehouse receipts: increased by 17,370 lots to 20,370 lots [7] - Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts: remained unchanged at 3,487 lots [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains the view that the overall trend in the second half of the year is expected to be oscillatory with a downward bias. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the feedback of risk preference on off - season macro data and new developments in Sino - US trade negotiations [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - The weekly performance of Treasury bond futures contracts showed a slight recovery, and the curve flattened on a weekly basis. The market presented a differentiated feature where the short - end maintained resilience and the long - end's volatility converged. The short - end was supported by loose liquidity and demand for tax - exempt bonds, while the long - end was affected by policy expectations and data games. Attention should be paid to the pricing of newly issued Treasury bonds and the impact of the new VAT policy on the long - end curve [3][5]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific content summary is provided in the report. 3.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type, private funds decreased by 0.35%, foreign capital decreased by 0.16%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 0.08%. In terms of weekly changes, private funds decreased by 9.44%, foreign capital increased by 2.19%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.75% [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The alloy market is experiencing a tug - of - war between market sentiment and fundamentals, leading to an oscillating trend in alloy prices. The "anti - involution" has disrupted market sentiment, while on the fundamental side, the iron - water output has contracted, and alloy demand may weaken. If the supply of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon continues to expand, the alloy prices may face pressure after the subsiding of the market sentiment. [3][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Conditions - This week, the alloy prices showed an oscillating trend. On Wednesday, the silicon - iron price was further boosted by the "anti - involution" sentiment. The weak employment data in the US has increased market expectations for interest - rate cuts. The iron - water output has decreased, and alloy demand may decline due to factors such as the expected September military parade. [5] - The silicon - iron 2509 contract closed at 5,772 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 1,444,373 lots traded and 119,038 lots held (a decrease of 36,059 lots week - on - week). The manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 6,046 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 1,547,336 lots traded and 227,914 lots held (a decrease of 43,349 lots week - on - week). [8] - The national silicon - iron spot prices were weak, with the 75B silicon - iron main - producing area quotes ranging from 5350 - 5500 yuan/ton, down 50 - 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The national silicon - manganese spot quotes were in the range of 5700 - 6000 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of 10 - 100 yuan/ton. [9] 3.2 Silicon - Iron Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The weekly silicon - iron output was 10.91 tons, a 4.3% week - on - week increase. The weekly开工率 was 34.32%, up 0.56 percentage points week - on - week. The increase in production was mainly contributed by Inner Mongolia and Gansu. [20][21] - **Demand**: In the steel - making demand, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.09%, down 0.15 percentage points week - on - week, and the daily average iron - water output was 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons week - on - week. In non - steel demand, the stainless - steel crude - steel output in June was 287.11 tons, down 14.59 tons month - on - month, and the July production schedule was expected to decline. The total metal - magnesium output in July was 6.86 tons, down 0.5% month - on - month. The silicon - iron export volume in June was 3.47 tons, down 3.96% month - on - month. [31][37] - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the inventory of 60 silicon - iron sample enterprises was 71,770 tons, up 6,180 tons week - on - week. The silicon - iron warehouse - receipt quantity was 19,646 lots, down 2396 lots week - on - week, equivalent to a de - stocking of 11,980 tons. The average available days of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory in July was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days. [42] - **Profit**: The weekly silicon - iron futures profit was 465 yuan, a 24% week - on - week increase, and the spot profit was 93 yuan, a 61.73% week - on - week decrease. [4] 3.3 Manganese - Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The weekly manganese - silicon output was 19.58 tons, a 2.6% week - on - week increase. The weekly开工率 was 43.43%, up 1.25 percentage points week - on - week. Inner Mongolia's production was at a historical high. [55] - **Raw Materials**: Overseas manganese - ore enterprises have raised their quotes, and the port prices of various manganese - ore varieties in Tianjin Port have slightly increased. The global manganese - ore departure volume has decreased, while the recent arrival volume at ports has increased. [63][67] - **Demand**: In the steel - making demand, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.09%, down 0.15 percentage points week - on - week, and the daily average iron - water output was 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, supporting the overall demand for manganese - silicon. [78] - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the inventory of 63 manganese - silicon sample enterprises was 161,500 tons, down 2,500 tons week - on - week. The manganese - silicon warehouse - receipt quantity was 76045 lots, down 1809 lots week - on - week, equivalent to a de - stocking of 9,045 tons. The average available days of steel - mill manganese - silicon inventory in July was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days. [83][87] - **Profit**: The weekly manganese - silicon futures profit was 229.42 yuan, a 12.21% week - on - week increase, and the spot profit was - 16.58 yuan, a 55.84% week - on - week increase. [4]

螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色高级分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年08月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：情绪有所降温，关注回调风险 | 2025/8/8 | | 供应（万吨） | | | 需求（万吨） | | | 库存 | | 现货 | 主力 | 10-01 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当周值 | 环差 | 同差 | 当周值 | 环差 | 同差 | 当周值 | 环差 | 同差 | 价格 | 基差 | 价差 | 利润 | 利润 | | 铁水 | 240.3 | -0.4 | 8.6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 废钢 | 48.4 | -6.0 | 11.3 | 55.2 | 0.4 | 15.7 | 465.5 | -12.6 | 47.1 | 2085 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, London gold rebounded by 2.57%, and London silver rebounded by 5.95%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 92.5 to 88.5. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.88%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.23%, and the US dollar index was 98.08 [3]. - The recent fluctuations in COMEX gold are mainly due to the expected tariff changes. However, this tariff - related trading is likely temporary, lacking official sources and having limited impact on the US. The cross - market spread has significantly converged at the end of Friday [3]. - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to focus on cross - market arbitrage between COMEX - SHFE and COMEX - LBMA, aiming to converge the spread. Overall, it is difficult to predict the trend of gold and silver, and technical signals may be more effective than fundamental factors [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Market Review - **Price and Increase**: This week, the closing prices of various gold and silver futures and spot products showed different degrees of increase. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9,278 with a weekly increase of 4.04%, and the closing price of London Gold Spot was 3,398.6 with a weekly increase of 1.07% [9]. - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The trading volume and positions of various gold and silver futures contracts also changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 389,332, a decrease of 445,304 compared with the previous week, and the position was 373,954, an increase of 8,761 [9]. 3.2 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Difference - **Gold**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract fell to - 59.621 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was - 54.7 US dollars per ounce [14]. - **Silver**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract converged to - 0.171 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 0.12 US dollars per ounce [17]. 3.3 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Difference - **Gold**: This week, the gold spot - futures price difference was - 4.53 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [21]. - **Silver**: This week, the silver spot - futures price difference was - 29 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [24]. 3.4 Monthly Spread - **Gold**: This week, the gold monthly spread was 6.2 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [27]. - **Silver**: This week, the silver monthly spread was 75 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [31]. 3.5 Delivery Cost of Long - Short Spread Arbitrage - **Gold**: The total cost of long - short spread arbitrage for gold in different contract combinations (such as buying TD and selling Shanghai Gold, buying December contract and selling June contract) ranges from 8.06 yuan per gram to 14.45 yuan per gram [34][35]. - **Silver**: The total cost of long - short spread arbitrage for silver in different contract combinations (such as buying TD and selling Shanghai Silver, buying December contract and selling June contract) ranges from 101.27 yuan per kilogram to 164.82 yuan per kilogram [36][37]. 3.6 Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees This week, the deferred fee direction of gold and silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange was mainly from long to short, indicating strong delivery power [38]. 3.7 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - **COMEX Gold**: This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.13 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 55.5% [40]. - **COMEX Silver**: This week, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.17 million ounces to 506.49 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 37.6% [42]. - **Domestic Futures Inventory**: This week, the gold futures inventory increased by 300 tons, and the silver futures inventory decreased by 25.57 tons to 1,158 tons [44]. 3.8 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions This week, the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX CFTC gold and silver both decreased slightly [46]. 3.9 ETF Positions - **Gold**: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 5.13 tons [50]. - **Silver**: This week, the inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 49.96 tons [52]. 3.10 Gold - Silver Ratio This week, the gold - silver ratio dropped from 90.1 to 88.7 [54]. 3.11 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates This week, the 1 - month gold lease rate was - 0.23%, and the 1 - month silver lease rate was 1.77% [56]. 3.12 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [61]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales**: The report presents data on US PCE, core PCE, retail and food service sales [64][65]. - **Non - farm Employment**: The report shows data on US non - farm employment, including new non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates [66][67]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: The report mentions the economic surprise index, inflation surprise index, and the probability of Fed rate cuts [73][75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are currently weak, but there is still macro risk sentiment, leading to price fluctuations. The price is expected to range between 77,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton, with a neutral strength analysis [3]. - Global copper inventories have increased significantly on the margin, and the macro situation is uncertain but not yet negative. Unilateral operations should be cautious, while long-term inventory depletion logic favors forward contract term positive spreads [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading End - Volatility: Volatility in SHFE copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper has all declined, with COMEX copper price volatility dropping to around 60% [10]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened, and the LME copper spot discount has widened. The COMEX copper C structure has narrowed [12][15]. - Position: Positions in SHFE copper, LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper have all decreased, with SHFE copper positions decreasing by 18,600 lots to 464,000 lots [16]. - Capital and Industry Positions: The net long position of CFTC non-commercial traders has decreased, and the net short position of LME commercial traders has increased [22]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has weakened, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has declined [26]. - Inventory: Global total copper inventories have increased, with a significant increase in LME inventories. Domestic social inventories have increased, bonded area inventories have decreased, and COMEX inventories have increased [29][32]. - Position-Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position-inventory ratio has declined, weakening the logic of spot tightness [33]. 2. Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Copper concentrate imports have increased year-on-year, port inventories have increased, and processing fees have marginally rebounded, but smelters are still in a loss-making state [36][38]. - Recycled Copper: Recycled copper imports have increased year-on-year, while domestic production has decreased significantly. The scrap-to-refined spread is weak, and import losses have widened [39][44]. - Blister Copper: Blister copper imports have increased, and processing fees are at a low level [49]. - Refined Copper: Domestic refined copper production has increased more than expected, imports have increased, and spot import losses have widened [52][53]. 3. Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened in July on a month-on-month basis. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises rebounded in the week of August 7th [56]. - Profit: Copper rod processing fees are at a low level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees have weakened [59][62]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level [63]. - Finished Product Inventory: Copper rod finished product inventories have declined, and wire and cable finished product inventories have decreased [66]. 4. Consumption End - Consumption: Apparent copper consumption is good, and grid investment is an important support. Grid investment has accelerated, and the air conditioning output growth rate has rebounded. New energy vehicle production is at a high level compared to the same period in history [71][73].