1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View There is no clear statement of the report's core view in the given text. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - The report provides data on various ETFs and indices, including 50ETF, Shanghai 300ETF, Shenzhen 300ETF, Shanghai CSI 500ETF, Shenzhen CSI 500ETF, ChiNext ETF, Shenzhen 100ETF, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF, 300 Index, 1000 Index, and Shanghai Composite 50 Index [1][3][7][14][21][25][35][43][50][57][63][69] 3.2 Price and Volatility Data - For each ETF and index, the report shows the price, price change, implied volatility (IV) for the current and next months over a 5 - day period from September 15 - 17, 2025 [1][3][7][14][21][25][35][43][50][57][63][69] - It also presents the IV quantiles for the current and next months over the past 1 and 2 years [1][3][7][14][21][25][35][43][50][57][63][69] 3.3 Volatility Structure and Trends - ATM IV term structures for different months (M1, M2, Q1, Q2, etc.) are provided, comparing the current day with the previous day [1][3][7][14][21][25][35][43][50][57][60][65][70] - Intraday trends of different - month at - the - money (ATM) IV are shown [1][3][7][14][21][25][35][43][50][60][65][70] 3.4 Skew Index and Smile Curve - The skew index for the main contract month is calculated as the ratio of the implied volatility of a call option with a delta of 0.75 to that of a call option with a delta of 0.25, and its values for the past five days are given [2][5][13][17][24][30][39][46][53][62][68][73] - The smile curves for the main contract months of each ETF and index option are presented [2][5][13][16][24][29][38][45][52][62][68][73] 3.5 Other Related Data - The relationship between price, open interest PCR, IV, and trading volume is shown through historical trend charts for each ETF and index [2][5][13][19][24][31][41][48][55][62][68][73] - Intraday synthetic - futures spreads and historical synthetic - futures spreads for some indices are provided [62][68][73]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not explicitly stated, but market is in a weak state [6] - Methanol: Not explicitly stated, continues to fluctuate at a low level [6] - Pure Benzene: Not explicitly stated, price is at a low level with potential improvement [3] - Styrene: Not explicitly stated, supply - demand situation has improved [3] - Polypropylene: Not explicitly stated, supply may slightly decrease, demand is weak [2] - Plastic: Not explicitly stated, no specific rating - related content provided - PVC: Not explicitly stated, runs with an upward bias under macro - expectations [7] - Caustic Soda: Not explicitly stated, expected to be in a wide - range oscillation pattern [7] - PX: Not explicitly stated, no specific rating - related content provided - PTA: Not explicitly stated, price is driven by raw materials, pay attention to device reduction [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Not explicitly stated, at a low - level oscillation [5] - Short Fiber: Not explicitly stated, positive configuration for near - month contracts [5] - Bottle Chip: Not explicitly stated, long - term pressure from over - capacity [5] - Glass: Not explicitly stated, runs with an upward bias, price may follow macro - sentiment [8] - Soda Ash: Not explicitly stated, runs strongly, long - term supply surplus [8] - Propylene: Not explicitly stated, supply is expected to increase, demand support may weaken [2] 2. Core Views - The chemical futures market shows a mixed trend, with different products having their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as new device production, seasonal demand changes, and inventory levels [2][3][5] - In general, many products are facing the influence of supply - demand relationships and macro - factors, and price trends are complex. Some products may follow macro - sentiment, while others are mainly driven by raw materials or cost factors [5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene: The futures main contract closes slightly higher. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support may weaken as some downstream devices stop work [2] - Polyolefins: The futures main contract fluctuates narrowly. PE demand increases with the rise of downstream factory operating rates, and supply decreases due to many domestic maintenance enterprises. PP supply may slightly decrease, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is restricted [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: The night - session price opens high and closes low. Weekly production slightly increases, and the processing margin oscillates at a low level. The domestic market supply - demand may improve in the third quarter, but high import volume expectations suppress market sentiment [3] - Styrene: The futures main contract fluctuates narrowly. Supply contracts, driving the spot price to stabilize and rise slightly. Downstream demand is supported by good profits and increased operating rates [3] Polyester - PTA: New device production is postponed. TA - PX spread oscillates. It is in a continuous de - stocking state, but processing margin and basis weaken. Demand shows a good trend, but polyester filament inventory is relatively high and profit is poor [5] - Ethylene Glycol: It oscillates at a low level. Domestic production decreases slightly, and port inventory continues to decline. Pay attention to the trial - run of new devices [5] - Short Fiber: Supply - demand is stable, and price fluctuates with cost. Before the National Day, downstream has restocking expectations, and near - month contracts can be configured long [5] - Bottle Chip: Downstream has rigid demand procurement. Basis and processing margin rebound, but over - capacity is a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The main contract continues to fluctuate at a low level. Import volume decreases, and port inventory accumulation slows down. Demand from the olefin industry increases, and port goods flow to the inland. Pay attention to overseas gas - restriction [6] - Urea: The market remains weak. Supply is sufficient, and production enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. Industrial demand recovers, and agricultural demand has a phased replenishment expectation [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Runs with an upward bias under macro - expectations. Supply pressure is high. Downstream operating rates increase slightly, and pay attention to pre - holiday restocking demand [7] - Caustic Soda: Runs with an upward bias in an oscillatory manner. Regional performance is differentiated. Overall inventory is small, and it is expected to oscillate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Runs strongly. Inventory decreases, and production remains high. Pay attention to macro - favorable policies, and long - term supply is in surplus [8] - Glass: Runs strongly. Inventory decreases, and downstream restocking sentiment increases. Capacity slightly recovers, and processing orders improve. Price may follow macro - sentiment [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Views - Crude oil prices maintain a medium-term bearish trend, with short-term geopolitical factors causing temporary supply fluctuations and limited rebound space. Consider a strategy combining high-level short positions and call options [2]. - The spread between high- and low-sulfur fuel oils is difficult to compress further. Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the spread on dips [3]. - There is still support at the bottom of the asphalt futures price [4]. - The short-term LPG-to-oil price ratio is expected to be strong, with good support at the spot end. Monitor the peak-season stocking market [5]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC10 contract up 1.07% intraday. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and export ports affecting supply. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 25bp, providing short-term support to the commodity market [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The rebound in crude oil drives up fuel oil futures. Russian fuel oil shipments have declined, while domestic refinery demand and Singapore's high-sulfur marine fuel consumption have increased. China's low-sulfur fuel oil export quota has increased by 900,000 tons, but the utilization rate is low, and supply pressure is not prominent [3]. Asphalt - Asphalt futures are mainly oscillating. Recent data shows a slight reduction in refinery inventories and a 50,000-ton weekly decline in social inventories. The increase and subsequent decrease in warehouse receipts in East China help relieve the downward pressure on spot prices in the region. Prices in South China and Hebei are temporarily stable [4]. LPG - The overseas market remains strong, with strong import demand and geopolitical risks boosting sentiment. Typhoons in South China have reduced imports, while good chemical profit margins support high operating rates. The short-term LPG-to-oil price ratio is expected to be strong, and the spot end has good support [5].

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Pulp: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Sugar: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Apple: One red star, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - Log: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Natural Rubber: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - 20 - number Rubber: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Butadiene Rubber: White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term trends of various soft commodities are mostly in a state of shock or relatively balanced, and the operability of the market is generally poor. It is recommended to wait and see for most varieties, while paying attention to various influencing factors such as supply and demand, price, and macro - events [2][3][4] Summary by Variety Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton showed a slight decline today. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with a potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, which may trigger a scramble for purchase by ginneries, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The current hand - picked seed cotton purchase price is about 7.5 yuan/kg, considered high by many ginneries. The cotton yarn market has general trading, with cautious market sentiment and poor downstream order demand. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is still in shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar was weakly operating. Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year in the short term, with less supply pressure than last year. In the medium term, if the current sugar - alcohol ratio is maintained, Brazil's sugar - making ratio may still be high next year, so there is still pressure on the upside of US sugar. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly declining. This year's sales rhythm is fast, inventory is reduced year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's trading focus has shifted to imports and the output estimate of the next crushing season. The import volume of syrup has decreased significantly this year, but the output of the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather and cane growth [3] Apple - The futures price was in shock. The demand for early - maturing apples was good, and merchants were actively purchasing. The market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, the apple output in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and the supply side lacks bullish drivers. The cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected, and it is expected that the short - term futures price will continue to decline, with a bearish operation idea [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all declined today. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants dropped significantly last week. The domestic tire operating rate increased significantly last week. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased to 586,600 tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber rebounded to 134,000 tons. Demand has significantly recovered, with an increase in natural rubber supply and a decrease in inventory, and a decrease in synthetic rubber supply and an increase in inventory. It is recommended to wait and see and closely monitor the Fed's interest - rate meeting [6] Pulp - Pulp futures declined slightly today. The inventory of China's main pulp ports decreased by 0.4 million tons compared with the previous period, a 0.2% month - on - month decrease, but the inventory is still at a high level year - on - year. China's pulp imports in August 2025 decreased by 227,000 tons month - on - month. Currently, the domestic port inventory is high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or use the idea of range shock for operation [7] Log - The futures price was in shock. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly month - on - month. The import willingness of traders has decreased, and the domestic supply is expected to remain low. Demand is gradually entering the peak season, but the import and export volume has not increased significantly. The log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started, and the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: None - **Hold (★★☆)**: None - **Weak Buy (★☆☆)**: None - **Neutral (White Star)**: None - **Weak Sell (★☆☆)**: None - **Sell (★★☆)**: None - **Strong Sell (★★★)**: None Core Views - The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino-US trade relations, with falling Brazilian soybean premiums and overall weak performance of soybean-related products [2][3][4]. - In the short term, it is necessary to verify the market's expectation of improved trade relations and pay attention to policy guidance and market performance of new crops [2][3][4]. - In the long term, supported by overseas biodiesel policies, soybean and palm oils can be considered for buying on dips [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean (Domestic) - Domestic soybean positions increased, and prices hit new phased lows. The expected opening price of new soybeans is low, around 1.85 - 1.9 yuan per catty [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - US soybean oil briefly rebounded and then oscillated downward. The domestic oil - meal ratio reached a phased high, with soybean meal weaker than soybean oil [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Affected by the expectation of eased Sino - US economic and trade relations, futures prices fell. Weekly soybean crushing is expected to be around 2.4 million tons, and soybean meal inventory is expected to be around 1.2 million tons at the end of September. The market may continue to oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the long term [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products fell today, with the oil - meal ratio continuing to rise. The expectation of increased soybean imports may put pressure on rapeseed meal prices, and the oil - meal ratio is expected to continue to rebound [6]. Corn - Dalian corn futures remained weak. Spot prices varied by region, with Xinjiang having high prices, Northeast remaining firm, and Shandong being weak [7]. Pig - Pig spot prices were weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The goal of reducing pig production capacity by about 1 million heads was discussed. The market is currently recommended for observation [8]. Egg - Egg futures adjusted slightly downward, while spot prices were slightly stronger. It is recommended to consider going long on far - month contracts for next year's first half and pay attention to short - position exits in near - month contracts [9].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Gold operation rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - Silver operation rating: ★☆★, with the white star suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1][4] Group 2: Core Views - Overnight, precious metals mainly fluctuated. The US August retail sales monthly rate was 0.6%, higher than the forecast of 0.2% and the previous value of 0.50% [1] - Trump called for faster interest rate cuts. The market priced in three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, but the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut this time was only 3% [1] - Focus on the Fed's interest rate cut amplitude at the meeting early tomorrow and Powell's speech on future guidance. If the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points as expected, beware of the "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect leading to a phased adjustment [1] Group 3: Other Key Points Tariff - related - The EU and Indonesia reached a trade agreement [1] - The US Commerce Department considered imposing additional tariffs on more imported auto parts [1] - The US and India's trade negotiators held positive talks in New Delhi on Tuesday and agreed to step up efforts to reach a trade deal [1] Trump - related - Trump talked with Modi to ease differences on tariffs and Russian oil [2] - Netanyahu will visit the White House again at the end of this month [2] - EU Commission President von der Leyen talked with Trump, and she agreed to phase out Russian oil imports and increase sanctions against Russia [2] - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru arranged a visit to the US next week [2] - Trump arrived in the UK [2] Fed Interest Rate Cut Probabilities - The probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points this week is 96.1%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 3.9% [2] - The probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting rates by 25 basis points in October is 20.1%, 50 basis points is 76.8%, and 75 basis points is 3.1% [2]

Report Summary 1. Market Data - **Commodities**: Gold closed at 834.22 with a weekly increase of 2.28%, silver at 10035.00 with 2.27% increase, and aluminum at 21120.00 with 2.05% increase. Some commodities like palm oil decreased by 2.41%, and polycrystalline silicon dropped by 5.51% [2]. - **Stocks**: A - shares such as CSI 500 rose by 3.38%, SSE 50 by 0.89%. Overseas stocks like Nikkei 225 increased by 4.07%, and Nasdaq Composite by 2.03% [2]. - **Bonds**: Yield of 10 - year Chinese Treasury bonds increased by 3.99bp, and 2 - year by 0.78bp [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: Euro - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.15%, while the US dollar index decreased by 0.12% [2]. 2. Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions, 4 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors include expected Fed rate cuts, potential new policies, large - scale reverse repurchase, and progress in Sino - US talks. Bearish factors are shrinking trading volume, possible lower - than - expected Fed rate cuts, weak domestic economic data, and a 1.4 - billion - share decrease in CSI 1000 ETF [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions, all 7 are neutral. Bullish factors are weak economic indicators, rising domestic rate - cut expectations due to Fed rate - cut expectations, and stable liquidity. Bearish factors are high stock market risk appetite and potential bond supply pressure in Q4, as well as bond fund redemptions [4]. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 bearish, and 5 neutral. Bullish factors are expected Fed rate cuts, increased global oil demand forecast, supply disruptions, and limited shale oil production growth. Bearish factors are the end of the gasoline consumption season, weak US employment and consumption, rising US rig count, and increasing US crude oil inventories [5]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Rapeseed Oil**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors are limited Canadian菜籽 supply, expected late arrival of Australian菜籽, and tight market supply. Bearish factors are abundant global菜籽 supply, high domestic rapeseed oil inventory, weak consumption, and import restrictions [5]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 8 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 2 neutral. Bullish factors are expected Fed rate cuts, supply disruptions, strong demand, low domestic inventory, and positive market sentiment. Bearish factors are potential limited Fed rate - cut space, unproven peak - season demand, high - price resistance, and impact of low - cost imported copper [6]. Chemical Industry Sector - **Urea**: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors are increased procurement, production cuts, inventory reduction, and price support from exports. Bearish factors are rising enterprise inventory, increased production capacity utilization, slow - recovering industrial demand, and the end of agricultural demand [6]. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 5 neutral. Bullish factors are weak US employment data, central bank gold purchases, concerns about Fed independence, and a weak US dollar. Bearish factors are high market risk appetite and potential post - rate - cut pullbacks [7]. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions, 4 are bullish, 0 bearish, and 4 neutral. Bullish factors are potential new policies, high market risk appetite, coal - production control, and increased iron - water and coking production. Bearish factors are high Mongolian coal imports, resumed coal production, approaching end of demand peak, and reduced downstream purchasing [7].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年09月17日 【原油】 隔夜贵金属震荡，美国公布8月零售销售月率录得0.6%，高于预测的0.2%和前值0.50%。市场定价美 联储年内将连续降息三次，特朗普称需要更快速的降息，聚焦明日凌晨美联储会议降息幅度以及鲍 威尔讲话对未来路径的指引。 【铜】 隔夜铜价阴线走低,短线仓量获利了结,市场静待联储会议。国内现铜上调到81120元,换月后沪 粤升水75、40元。铜价突破再涨,需重点关注资金兴趣,目前仓量一般。多单择机止盈观望。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝震荡。下游开工继续季节性回升，年内铝锭库存大概率处于偏低水平。但铝锭社库仍未现 拐点,继续关注旺季需求反馈。沪铝短期测试3月高点位置阻力。 (铸造铝合金) 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝小幅回调，保太现货报价维持在20600元。废铝货源偏紧,税率政策调整预期 增加企业成本,现货与沪铝跨品种价差存在进一步收窄空间。 (氧化铝) 氧化铝运行产能超过9700万吨刷新历史新高，行业库存持续上升，仓单超过15万吨。供应过剩明 显，各地现货持续下调，新疆铝厂招标价折北方出厂价低于2950元。晋豫产能现金成本尚有利润, ...

隔夜国际油价上行，布伦特11合约涨1.51%。近期俄乌博弈再次加码，乌克兰频繁袭击俄罗斯炼厂 及出口港口，上周末遇袭的Kirishi地区炼厂炼能40万桶/天在全国占比6.4%，总体受损炼厂开工或 在10万桶/天之内；出口能力100万桶/天的西北部Primorsk港口亦因遇袭影响9月装船计划。 此外， 市场预期周三结束的联储议息会议将至少降息25bp，对商品市场情绪构成短期支撑。原油价格中期 偏空趋势不变，短期地缘因素或对供应有阶段性犹动，但反弹空间愈发受限，继续关注高位空单与 看涨期权相结合的策略组合。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年09月17日 【原油】 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属震荡，美国公布8月零售销售月率录得0.6%，高于预测的0.2%和前值0.50%。市场定价美 联储年内将连续降息三次，特朗普称需要更快速的降息，聚焦明日凌晨美联储会议降息幅度以及鲍 威尔讲话对未来路径的指引。 【铜】 隔夜铜价阴线走低,短线仓量获利了结,市场静待联储会议。国内现铜上调到81120元,换月后沪 粤升水75、40元。铜价突破再涨,需重点关注资金兴趣,目前仓量一般。多单择机止盈观 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View As of the week ending September 14, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, in line with market expectations but down slightly from the previous week and the same period last year The good-to-excellent rate of US corn was 67%, higher than market expectations and also slightly down from the previous week but better than the same period last year The harvest rate of US soybeans and corn is at a certain level, and the good-to-excellent rate remains relatively good However, in the next two weeks, the dry weather in the main production areas of US soybeans and corn has eased, but the temperature is higher than normal, which poses challenges to the harvest of new crops Soil moisture has decreased week-on-week but is better than the same period last year Continuous monitoring of weather changes in the production areas is required [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog US Soybean - **Good-to-excellent rate**: The current good-to-excellent rate is 63%, matching market expectations, down from 64% in the previous week and 64% in the same period last year, showing a slight decline [1] - **Harvest rate**: The harvest rate is 5%, in line with market expectations, compared to 3% in the previous week, 6% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 3% [1] US Corn - **Good-to-excellent rate**: The current good-to-excellent rate is 67%, higher than the market - expected 66%, down from 68% in the previous week, and better than 65% in the same period last year It remains in a relatively good state [1] - **Harvest rate**: The harvest rate is 7%, lower than the market - expected 9%, up from 4% in the previous week, compared to 8% in the same period last year, and in line with the five - year average of 7% [1] Weather Impact In the next two weeks, the less - rainy problem in the main production areas of US soybeans and corn has eased, but the temperature is higher than the same period, which continues to challenge the harvest of new crops Soil moisture has decreased week - on - week but is better than last year [1]