Report Industry Investment Ratings - Rebar: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ (White stars indicate a relatively balanced short-term bullish/bearish trend, poor operability on the trading floor, and it's advisable to wait and see) [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Coke: ★☆★ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★☆ (Two stars represent a clear bullish/bearish stance, with an obvious upward/downward trend and the market trend is emerging on the trading floor) [1] - Silicon iron: ★☆★ (Same as above) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic demand for steel is weak, but exports remain high. After the Fed's interest rate cut, market optimism has cooled. The steel trading floor has support below, and attention should be paid to the improvement of building material demand in the peak season. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Coke and coking coal prices are affected by cost expectations and "anti-involution," and it's advisable to consider buying on dips. Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices follow the rebound of the black series, but their highs are restricted by fundamentals [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Today's trading floor declined. Rebar demand improved, production continued to fall, and inventory decreased slightly. Hot-rolled coil demand declined, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. High iron water restricts further production resumption space, and attention should be paid to environmental protection restrictions. Domestic demand is weak, and exports remain high. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market is less optimistic, but the trading floor has support [1] Iron Ore - Today's trading floor fluctuated. Supply is at a high level, with a slight decline in domestic arrivals. Port inventory is stable, and there is no significant pressure to accumulate inventory. Terminal demand is weak, but high iron water production and pre-holiday restocking needs support demand. The market expects macro policies, and "anti-involution" affects the trading floor. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2] Coke - The price declined during the day. There is still an expectation of a third round of price cuts, but due to low profits, some coking plants proposed a first-round price increase. Inventory is increasing, and traders' purchasing intention is average. Cost expectations and "anti-involution" affect prices, and it's advisable to consider buying on dips [3] Coking Coal - The price declined during the day. High expectations of overproduction checks and "anti-involution" make the price relatively strong. Mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions weakened, and terminal inventory decreased slightly. Total inventory increased, and short-term production disruptions had little impact on inventory. It's advisable to consider buying on dips [5] Silicon Manganese - The price oscillated strongly during the day. Iron water production recovered rapidly, and production increased to a high level. Inventory did not accumulate, and both futures and spot demand were good. Manganese ore prices increased slightly, and inventory accumulated slowly. The price follows the rebound of the black series, but the high is restricted by fundamentals [6] Silicon Iron - The price oscillated strongly during the day. Iron water production recovered rapidly, and export demand remained stable. Metal magnesium production declined slightly, and overall demand was okay. Supply recovered to a high level, and inventory decreased slightly. The price follows the rebound of the black series, but the high is restricted by fundamentals [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ (predicted downward trend) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical futures market shows a mixed performance, with different products having different supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. The overall market is affected by factors such as production capacity changes, demand fluctuations, and macro - economic conditions [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures contracts opened high and closed low. Propylene demand improved as prices hit a low, but supply increased. Some companies raised prices due to better sales [2] - Polyolefin futures contracts declined. Polyethylene demand increased with higher downstream开工率, and supply decreased due to many domestic maintenance. Polypropylene supply may decrease slightly, but downstream procurement was restricted by low profits [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene dropped. Although new production was added,开工率 decreased slightly. The domestic pure benzene market may improve in Q3, but high import expectations dampened sentiment [3] - Styrene futures fluctuated slightly. There were unplanned supply reductions, but demand entered a dull period. Northern companies may have price promotions before the National Day [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices weakened. PTA price was driven by raw materials. Terminal demand improved, but filament inventory was high and profit was poor [5] - Ethylene glycol returned to the bottom of the range. Domestic production decreased slightly, and port inventory was low [5] - Short - fiber prices fell. New capacity was limited this year, and demand in the peak season was expected to boost the industry. Bottle - chip basis and processing margin rebounded, but over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol contracts declined. Import arrivals decreased, and short - term supply - demand gap was expected to narrow. High inventory persisted, and long - term attention was on overseas gas restrictions [6] - Urea prices weakened. Supply was sufficient, and industrial demand improved. Agricultural demand had a phased replenishment expectation. Domestic urea remained in a loose supply - demand situation [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was weak. Supply pressure was high, and cost support was not obvious. Attention was on pre - holiday restocking demand [7] - Caustic soda showed regional differences. Overall inventory was small, and prices were expected to fluctuate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices dropped. Production remained high, and heavy - soda demand increased slightly but slowed recently. It was expected to follow macro - sentiment in the short - term and face over - supply in the long - term [8] - Glass prices fell. Inventory decreased, capacity increased slightly, and processing orders improved. It was expected to follow macro - sentiment at a low - valuation level [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The short - term market is affected by factors such as trade relationship expectations, policy guidance, and supply - demand changes, and presents a volatile trend. Long - term trends are influenced by factors like overseas bio - diesel policies and production capacity changes. For some products, long - term bullish or bearish trends are expected, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Soybean - The decline of domestic soybeans has eased and rebounded. The expected opening price of new soybeans is around 1.85 - 1.9 yuan/jin. The market has high expectations for Sino - US trade relations, and Brazilian soybean premiums have fallen. Short - term attention should be paid to the verification of trade expectations, policy guidance, and the performance of new soybeans on the market [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and may cut rates twice more this year. Affected by the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, Dalian futures continued to decline. The supply of soybeans is sufficient in the fourth quarter, and there may be a gap in the first quarter of next year. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and long - term cautious optimism about Dalian soybean meal is maintained [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Domestic soybean oil and palm oil are in a downward trend. The price of US soybean oil has weakened, and the soybean - oil ratio has adjusted after reaching a new high. Short - term attention should be paid to the verification of trade expectations. In the long - term, considering the support of overseas bio - diesel policies, it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed oil followed the decline of the vegetable oil sector, but the decline was the smallest due to the uniqueness of its supply. The estimated output of Canadian rapeseed in 2025/26 has been slightly increased, and the price of Canadian rapeseed futures is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the trend of economic and trade relations [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures rose 0.65% today. Spot prices in different regions are differentiated. There is a certain sentiment of hoarding among farmers. Short - term attention should be paid to policy guidance, and after the enthusiasm for new grain purchases fades, Dalian corn futures may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs continued to fall to a new low this year. The main November contract opened lower and continued to decline, breaking through the key resistance level. The supply pressure is high in the second half of the year, and a bearish view is maintained [8] Eggs - Egg futures significantly reduced their positions by 60,000 lots, with the near - term weaker than the far - term. The spot price started to correct today. The industry still has a high inventory problem, and the pressure of new production is expected to decrease by the end of the year. It is advisable to consider deploying long positions in the far - month contracts for next year's first half, and pay attention to the exit of short - position funds in the near - month contracts [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated, but the analysis implies a mid - term bearish trend [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Views - The mid - term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged, and short - term geopolitical factors may have a phased impact on supply, but the rebound space is increasingly limited [2] - For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the high - low sulfur spread has limited further compression space, and it is recommended to focus on the strategy of expanding the high - low sulfur spread on dips [3] - The bottom support of asphalt futures prices still exists [4] - The short - term oil price ratio of LPG is expected to be strong, and the bottom support of the spot end is good [5] Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC11 contract falling 1.6% intraday. Last week, US crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels more than expected due to a sharp increase in exports, while the increase in middle distillate inventories raised market concerns about demand. The Fed's 25bp interest rate cut did not bring more - than - expected positive effects [2] - It is recommended to continue to focus on the strategy combination of high - level short positions and call options [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, fuel - related futures followed the decline of crude oil. Since Russian refineries were frequently attacked, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The continuous increase in the operating rate of Shandong refineries is beneficial to the feed demand for fuel oil, and the incremental consumption of marine fuel in the Singapore market is also concentrated in the high - sulfur marine fuel sector [3] - The third batch of low - sulfur fuel oil export quotas in 2025 is only 700,000 tons, lower than 1 million tons in the third batch last year. Cumulatively, the low - sulfur export quotas in 2025 have increased by 900,000 tons year - on - year. However, considering the low quota utilization rate, the low - sulfur supply pressure is limited [3] Asphalt - Today, crude oil declined, while asphalt futures continued to fluctuate within a range. Today's data shows that factory and social inventories continued to decline, but the decline slowed down compared to the beginning of the week. The warehouse receipts in East China warehouses decreased by 350 tons today, and a total of 3,050 tons have been reduced so far this week [4] - The downward pressure on spot prices in East China has eased, and spot prices in South China and Hebei remained stable [4] LPG - The overseas market remains strong. Under the circumstances of strong import demand and rising geopolitical risks, the overall sentiment is bullish. In South China, China, the impact of typhoons has reduced imported goods. At the same time, the chemical profit margin remains good, and the high - operating - rate pattern can still be maintained [5] - It is necessary to pay attention to the peak - season stockpiling market situation, and the near - month contract of the futures market is relatively strong [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - Paper Pulp: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - Sugar: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - Apple: Short - term bearish, one green star, indicating a downward - driving trend but low operability [1] - Timber: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - Natural Rubber: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - 20 - number Rubber: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and timber, providing an overview of their market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends, and gives corresponding investment suggestions, mostly suggesting temporary observation [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures fell sharply, with spot sales mostly stable. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with a possible output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, which may lead to competition among ginneries for purchase, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The current hand - picked seed cotton purchase price is around 7.5 yuan/kg, considered high by many ginneries. The cotton yarn market has general trading, with cautious market sentiment and weak downstream orders. Macroeconomically, pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest rate cut. Temporarily observe [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year, with less supply pressure than last year. In the medium term, the sugar - alcohol ratio, though falling significantly, is still at the upper edge of the historical range, so the sugar - making ratio in Brazil may remain high next year. US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is weakly declining. This year's sales rhythm is fast, with reduced inventory and relatively light spot pressure. The trading focus has shifted to imports and the next - season output forecast. The import volume of syrup has decreased significantly this year, but the output forecast for the 25/26 season is uncertain. Pay attention to weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The demand for early - maturing apples is good, and merchants are actively purchasing. The high price of early - maturing apples makes the market expect a high opening price for late - maturing apples in October. However, the expected apple output in the 25/26 quarter has little year - on - year change, and the supply lacks bullish drivers. In Shaanxi, farmers are more bullish, and the inventory after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October is expected to increase. It is expected that the futures price will continue to decline in the short term, and a bearish approach is maintained [4] 20 - number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the prices of international crude oil and other commodities fell. The futures prices of RU, WR, and BR continued to decline, and the sentiment in the futures market weakened. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased last week. China's tire production and export data in August showed that the domestic tire market performed well, with an increase in the operating rate. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao continued to decline, while the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber increased. With the approaching National Day holiday, risk preference is low. Temporarily observe [5] Paper Pulp - The paper pulp futures fell slightly, and the spot prices of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp were stable. As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper pulp ports in China decreased slightly, but was still at a high level year - on - year. The digestion of warehouse receipts was slow. In August 2025, China's paper pulp imports decreased. Macroeconomically, inflation is expected to remain weak this year, and PPI has marginally improved. Currently, the port inventory is high, supply is relatively loose, and demand is general. Temporarily observe or trade within a range [6] Timber - The futures price fluctuates, and the spot price is stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly, and the price of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased. Domestic spot prices are weak, and traders' import willingness is low. Although demand is entering the peak season, port shipments have not increased significantly. The total log inventory is low, with relatively small inventory pressure. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. Temporarily observe [7]

| Million | > 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月18日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属回落、盘中波动剧烈。美联储如期降息25个基点，鲍威尔称劳动力市场风险偏向下行，此次降息 可理解为风险管理式降息。点阵图暗示今年将累计降息3次,明年将降息1次。总体看美联储态度偏谨慎，降 息路径相对温和,贵金属可能进入阶段性盘整。 ★FOMC声明及经济预期: 1. 声明概述：降息25个基点至4.00%-4.25%，重启自去年12月以来暂停的降息步伐。理事米兰认为应降息50 个基点。 2. 利率前景：点阵图预计今年将再降息两次。一位官员预计年内将累计降息150个基点，一位官员（非票 委）认为今年不应降息。2025、2026、2027年底联邦基金利 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: No clear rating provided [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities) [1] - Alumina: No clear rating provided [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: No clear rating provided [1] - Zinc: No clear rating provided [3] - Lead and Stainless Steel: No clear rating provided [1] - Tin: No clear rating provided [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No clear rating provided [1] - Industrial Silicon: No clear rating provided [9] - Polysilicon: No clear rating provided [10] Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market sentiment has changed. Different metals have different price trends and trading strategies based on their fundamentals [1][3] - The supply and demand fundamentals of various metals are different, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities [2][5] Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday saw a reduction in positions in Shanghai copper, approaching the support of medium - and long - term moving averages. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the previous bullish sentiment cooled. The spot copper price was 80,600 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium shrank to 60 yuan. The social inventory decreased by 5,300 tons to 148,900 tons this week. The copper price may fall back to the previous support range of 79,000 - 79,500 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today, and the spot discounts in various regions slightly narrowed. The downstream开工 continued to seasonally recover, but the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not yet shown an inflection point, increasing slightly by 100 tons compared to Monday. The industry drive is currently weak, and Shanghai aluminum faces resistance at the March high. Cast aluminum alloy followed the decline of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price dropping by 100 yuan to 20,400 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax policy increases enterprise costs, so it may show stronger resilience compared to Shanghai aluminum. The operating capacity of alumina exceeded 97 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory continued to rise, with warehouse receipts exceeding 150,000 tons. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot index in various regions continued to be adjusted down by 5 - 10 yuan. There is an expectation of mine复产 in Guinea, and the strike has not affected production for the time being. The cash cost of production capacity in Shanxi and Henan still has a profit, and the support for alumina is temporarily seen around the June low of 2,830 yuan [2] Zinc - After the Fed's expected 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, zinc returned to fundamental trading. Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, Shanghai zinc increased positions and declined, testing the 22,000 - yuan integer mark again. The de - stocking pace of LME zinc slowed down, and the total inventory was still less than 50,000 tons. The weak domestic and strong overseas fundamentals led to an extreme price difference between the domestic and foreign markets. After the zinc ingot export window was approaching to open, the price difference began to converge. The increase in global mine supply continued to be realized, and the overall supply of zinc ingots was sufficient. The general direction of short - selling on rallies remained unchanged. Given the differentiation of domestic and foreign fundamentals, it is necessary to focus on the change in LME zinc inventory. If there is obvious warehousing action in the overseas market, Shanghai zinc is expected to break below the 22,000 - yuan level; if the LME zinc inventory remains at a low level, Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate around 22,000 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Due to the low operating rate of secondary lead smelters and the maintenance of primary lead smelters in the early stage, and the maintenance plan of medium - and large - scale smelters in late September, coupled with the downstream's stockpiling for the National Day holiday, the supply of lead ingots tightened. The SMM social inventory of lead decreased to 67,600 tons. The fundamentals of lead improved in the short term. Shanghai lead continued its independent trend during the day, with bulls increasing positions, and there is still some upside potential for Shanghai lead. However, after the lead price rebounded, the SMM 1 lead had a discount of 145 yuan/ton to the near - month contract, the profit of secondary lead was restored, the price difference between refined and scrap lead widened to 100 yuan/ton, the expectation of secondary lead smelters resuming production strengthened, and the primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier gradually resumed production. The resistance for the lead price rebound is seen at 17,300 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - After the interest rate cut, in the spot market, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,300 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 300 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel was 956 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support rebounded slightly and was further hyped up due to the political situation, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 29,200 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 16,000 tons to 919,000 tons. Shanghai nickel returned to the downward trend [6] Tin - Shanghai tin closed in the negative territory near the MA60 moving average, and the spot tin price was adjusted down to 270,200 yuan. Attention should be paid to the performance of the overseas market at $34,000. The spot discount of LME 0 - 3 months has widened to $167. Wait for the specific import and export data of tin. If Shanghai tin effectively breaks below the 60 - day moving average, it means weak consumption. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price fluctuated weakly, and the market trading was dull. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,200 tons to 36,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons. After the rapid price decline, the downstream took the opportunity to purchase. The inventory of traders decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The middle - stream sector became cautious, and the transfer of cargo rights was mainly due to the upstream selling to the downstream. The latest quotation of Australian ore was $810, and the ore - end quotation rebounded slightly, matching the lithium - price fluctuations. The low - level support of the lithium - carbonate futures price emerged, but the selling actions in the industry chain were basically completed. After the interest rate cut, the overall trend was weak [8] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon rose and then fell, closing below 9,000 yuan/ton. Recently, there has been an expectation of eliminating backward furnace types. From the weekly operating situation, the production reduction of downstream silicone and polysilicon was limited. The monthly surplus risk mainly came from the increase in the operating rate in the Xinjiang production area and the maintenance of the existing operating level in the Sichuan and Yunnan production areas. In general, the room for fundamental improvement was limited, and it was difficult to form a strong upward - driving force. More positive factors were needed to effectively break through the 9,000 - yuan/ton mark [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures fluctuated and closed at 53,200 yuan/ton. The energy - consumption limit standard has entered the solicitation stage. The price of spot M - type re - feeding material increased slightly, with the current quotation range of 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. The production schedule of the polysilicon industry in September decreased slightly compared with last month, and the inventory continued to rise. The resistance above the futures price has not been broken through, and it is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, waiting for further policy guidance [10]

Group 1: Oil Market - International oil prices have declined, with Brent crude falling by 0.85%. US crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels due to increased exports, while concerns about demand arose from rising middle distillate inventories [2] - The medium-term outlook for oil prices remains bearish, with short-term geopolitical factors potentially affecting supply, but rebound potential is increasingly limited [2] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced volatility, with the Federal Reserve's rate cut of 25 basis points interpreted as a risk management measure. The dot plot suggests three rate cuts this year and one next year, indicating a cautious Fed stance [3] - Precious metals may enter a phase of consolidation due to the Fed's moderate rate cut path [3] Group 3: Copper - Copper prices have declined, with the Fed's cautious stance on interest rates contributing to this trend. Prices are expected to test support levels around 79,000 to 79,500 [4] Group 4: Aluminum - Aluminum prices have retreated, with downstream operations showing seasonal recovery. However, aluminum inventories remain low without signs of a turning point, and macroeconomic factors are positive but limited in driving the industry [5][6] Group 5: Zinc - LME zinc inventories are below 49,000 tons, indicating tight supply. The domestic zinc market is under pressure from inventory accumulation, but a potential rebound is anticipated in the short term due to seasonal demand [8] Group 6: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are fluctuating with a slight decrease in total market inventory. The market is cautiously optimistic, with short-term bullish sentiment expected as downstream demand stabilizes [12] Group 7: Steel Market - Steel prices are experiencing fluctuations, with rebar demand showing signs of recovery but overall inventory levels continuing to rise. The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic policies and seasonal demand [15][16] Group 8: Agricultural Products - The soybean market is influenced by US-China trade relations, with expectations of high import volumes. The corn market shows mixed signals, with prices varying by region and a cautious outlook ahead of the new harvest [37][41] Group 9: Livestock - The live pig market is under pressure with prices declining, while the egg market shows seasonal strength but faces long-term supply challenges. The overall livestock sector remains cautious [42][43]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various commodities and financial products. Some commodities are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, while others face supply - demand imbalances and price pressures. The Fed's interest rate cut has a certain impact on the market, but its influence varies across different sectors [2][3][49]. Summaries by Commodity Types Energy - **Crude Oil**: The medium - term downward trend remains unchanged. Although short - term geopolitical factors may cause fluctuations in supply, the rebound space is limited. A strategy of combining high - level short positions with call options is recommended [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The increase in domestic refinery operating rates benefits fuel oil feedstock demand, and the growth in Singapore's bunker fuel consumption is concentrated in high - sulfur bunker fuels. The low - sulfur fuel oil export quota has increased, and the supply pressure is not prominent. It is advisable to focus on the strategy of expanding the high - low sulfur spread at low levels [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is strong, and the domestic market is also positive due to reduced imports in South China and good chemical margins. The short - term oil price ratio is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking market [24]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the provided content. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, precious metals may enter a phase of consolidation as the Fed's attitude is cautious and the interest rate cut path is relatively mild [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price may fall back to the previous support range of 79,000 - 79,500 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Aluminum**: The downstream start - up rate is seasonally rising, and the inventory is likely to be low this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not shown a turning point. The Shanghai aluminum faces resistance at the March high [5]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is low, and the overseas supply is tight. The Shanghai zinc may rebound under the influence of the external market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to go short and also pay attention to the double - buying opportunity of the option's end - of - cycle [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel has declined. The pure nickel inventory has increased, and the nickel iron inventory has decreased. The Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate at a low level [10]. - **Lead**: The fundamentals of lead are strong domestically and weak overseas. The lead ingot import window may open, and the Shanghai lead has room for an upward rebound, with the upper limit temporarily seen at 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Metals - **Alumina**: The operating capacity has reached a new high, and the supply is in excess. The price is under pressure, and the support level is temporarily seen around 2,830 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is low, and the overseas supply is tight. The Shanghai zinc may rebound under the influence of the external market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to go short and also pay attention to the double - buying opportunity of the option's end - of - cycle [8]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has followed the decline of Shanghai aluminum. Due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the expected increase in enterprise costs from tax policy adjustments, it may show stronger resilience compared to Shanghai aluminum [6]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is oscillating. The rebar demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The hot - rolled coil demand is more resilient, and the inventory pressure is relieved. The overall steel price continues to rebound, but the rhythm may be volatile [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production in the short term. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts is in progress. The price is affected by the expectation of coking coal production inspection and "anti - involution." It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is relatively strong due to the high expectation of production inspection and "anti - involution." It is advisable to buy on dips [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is rising. The demand is supported by the recovery of hot - metal production, but the high point is restricted by the fundamentals. Attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is rising. The demand is good, but the high point is restricted by the fundamentals. Attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [20]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The supply is sufficient, and the inventory of production enterprises is increasing. The industrial demand is recovering, and the agricultural demand has a phased replenishment expectation. The market is oscillating at a low level [25]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in the short term. The high - inventory pressure persists, and the long - term impact of overseas gas restrictions needs attention [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is oscillating. The supply may improve in the third quarter, but the high import volume suppresses market sentiment [27]. - **Styrene**: The supply has decreased, and the demand is supported by good downstream profits. The supply - demand situation has improved [28]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken slightly. The supply - demand situation of polyethylene is gradually improving, while that of polypropylene improves limitedly [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating strongly. The supply pressure is high, and the demand needs to be observed. Caustic soda is expected to oscillate widely [30]. - **PX & PTA**: The PTA price has rebounded, and the PX price has moved up. The demand for PTA is improving, but the price is still driven by raw materials [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is oscillating at a low level due to the pressure of new - device expectations [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber price has rebounded, and it is advisable to allocate long positions in the near - term contracts. The bottle - chip market has a slight improvement, but the long - term over - capacity problem persists [33]. Soft Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino - US economic and trade relations. The supply of soybeans is sufficient in the fourth quarter. The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the long term [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The prices are falling. The long - term trend is supported by overseas biodiesel policies, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed production is expected to be high, and the export is expected to be low. The domestic rapeseed - related prices are supported by supply bottlenecks but are also under pressure from soybean import expectations [39]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price has reached a new low. The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino - US economic and trade relations. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance and the performance of new - crop soybeans [40]. - **Corn**: The price is slightly rising. The spot prices vary in different regions. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom after the new - crop purchase enthusiasm fades [41]. - **Live Hogs**: The spot price is weak, and the supply pressure is high in the second half of the year. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is slightly weak, and the spot price is strong. It is advisable to consider long positions in the far - month contracts for next year's first half [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has declined. The domestic cotton supply is expected to be high, and the demand is still weak. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short term [44]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar market has less inventory pressure. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [45]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. The supply of apples is expected to be stable, and the cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected [46]. - **Timber**: The price is oscillating. The supply is low, and the demand is going well during the off - season. The market lacks upward momentum in the short term [47]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price is slightly falling. The inventory is still at a high level, and the supply is relatively loose. It is advisable to wait and see or adopt an oscillatory trading strategy [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock market is rising. The market style is expected to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors, and the opportunity of the Hang Seng Technology Index can be grasped [49]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond futures price is rising. The yield curve is expected to steepen [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Roll: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Iron: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a complex situation with different performances in various types, and the overall market is affected by factors such as demand, cost, and policies, showing a rebound trend with fluctuations [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to be in high - level oscillation in the short term, influenced by supply, demand, and macro - policy expectations [2]. - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by the expectations of over - production inspection and "anti - involution", and there are opportunities for callback buying [3][5]. - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have their prices following the rebound of the black series, but the highs are restricted by fundamentals, and attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread's apparent demand continues to decline, the peak - season recovery is postponed, and inventory accumulates; hot - roll demand is resilient, production is at a relatively high level, and inventory pressure eases [1]. - Iron - water production has rebounded significantly, but poor profit per ton restricts further production resumption; pay attention to environmental protection and production restrictions in Tangshan [1]. - Domestic demand is weak, steel exports remain high, and the cost support is strong, with the market continuing to rebound with fluctuations [1]. Iron Ore - Global shipments are at a high level, domestic arrivals decline slightly, and port inventory oscillates with no significant pressure to accumulate in the short term [2]. - Terminal demand is relatively weak, but iron - water production is high, and there is a pre - holiday restocking demand from steel mills [2]. - The market expects macro - policies, and the "anti - involution" and overseas Fed's interest - rate cut expectations affect the market, with high - level oscillation expected [2]. Coke - The third round of price cuts for coking is in progress, profits are average, and daily production has increased; inventory has accumulated, and traders' purchasing willingness is general [3]. - The market expects cost increases due to over - production inspection of coking coal and "anti - involution", and prices follow coking coal's rise [3]. - Carbon element supply is abundant, downstream iron - water is at a high level, and there are opportunities for callback buying [3]. Coking Coal - Prices are relatively strong due to high expectations of over - production inspection and "anti - involution" [5]. - Coking coal mine production has slightly increased, spot trading has weakened, and terminal inventory has slightly decreased [5]. - Total inventory has increased, production - end inventory has slightly accumulated, and there are opportunities for callback buying [5]. Silicon Manganese - Iron - water production has quickly recovered, weekly production has increased, and inventory has not accumulated, with good spot and futures demand [6]. - Manganese ore's forward quotes have increased slightly, and spot ore has been boosted; inventory is accumulating slowly [6]. - Prices follow the black - series rebound, but highs are restricted by fundamentals, and attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [6]. Silicon Iron - Iron - water production has recovered, export demand is stable, and secondary demand has slightly declined, with overall demand being okay [7]. - Supply has returned to a high level, spot and futures demand is good, and inventory has slightly decreased [7]. - Prices follow the black - series rebound, but highs are restricted by fundamentals, and attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [7]