Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆★, with unclear implications from the report [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short-term balance between long and short trends and low operability [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, a bullish bias but low operability [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, a bullish bias but low operability [1] - Silicon manganese: Not provided in the report - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, a bullish bias but low operability [1] Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are expected to continue the rebound in the short term, while iron ore is likely to fluctuate at a high level. Coke and coking coal prices are volatile and influenced by policies. Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon prices are affected by demand and policy continuity [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's steel futures continued to rebound. This week, the apparent demand and production of thread both declined slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot-rolled coils dropped significantly, production also decreased notably, and inventory continued to rise [2] - Affected by the parade, hot metal production dropped sharply this week and will gradually resume production later, but profit per ton of steel will limit the resumption space [2] - From the perspective of downstream industries, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing gradually slowed down. Overall domestic demand remained weak, while exports were expected to stay at a high level [2] - After continuous adjustments, the futures market gradually stabilized. With the rising expectation of anti-competition, market sentiment quickly improved, and it is expected to continue the rebound in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures fluctuated. Global shipments were strong, but those from Australia and those to China were weak. The arrival volume in China rebounded, and port inventory increased slightly this week, with a large decline in Australian ore, but there is no overall pressure to accumulate inventory [3] - On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel declined, the profitability rate of steel mills shrank, and hot metal production decreased significantly. There is an expectation of production resumption after the phased production restriction ends, and the demand support from high hot metal production still exists [3] - Macro利好 has been partially realized in the short term, but there is an overseas interest rate cut window in September. It is expected that speculative sentiment will not completely subside, and iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - Coke prices rebounded significantly during the day. Whether the first round of price cuts in the coking industry will be fully implemented next Monday remains to be observed [4] - Coking profits are acceptable, daily coking production decreased slightly, overall coke inventory increased, and the purchasing willingness of traders decreased [4] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. There is an expectation that downstream hot metal production will gradually recover. Affected by events, the short-term decline was large, and the market still anticipates coal overproduction inspections [4] - The coke futures are at a premium. Prices are still greatly affected by the expectation of "anti-competition" policies, with high volatility and increased price contradictions [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded significantly during the day. Affected by the parade, the production of coking coal mines decreased significantly, but the impact time was short [6] - Spot auction transactions weakened slightly, and transaction prices fell following the futures market. Terminal inventory decreased slightly [6] - The total coking coal inventory decreased month-on-month, and production-side inventory increased slightly. Coking coal production suspension will gradually resume, with a short impact duration, and it is expected to have little impact on inventory [6] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. There is an expectation that downstream hot metal production will gradually recover. Affected by events, the short-term decline was large, and the market still anticipates coal overproduction inspections [6] - The coking coal futures are at a premium. Prices are still greatly affected by the expectation of "anti-competition" policies, with high volatility and increased price contradictions [6] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices rebounded slightly during the day. The short-term decline in hot metal production on the demand side was large, but there is an expectation of gradual recovery later, with a small overall impact [7] - The weekly production of silicon manganese continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level. Silicon manganese inventory has not yet accumulated, and both futures and spot demand are good [7] - The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month-on-month, and the spot ore price decreased this week. However, after the significant rebound in the futures market, it is expected that the spot manganese ore price will mainly rise [7] - In the long term, it is judged that manganese ore will mainly accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. Observe the continuity of "anti-competition" related policies [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rebounded slightly during the day. The short-term decline in hot metal production on the demand side was large, but there is an expectation of gradual recovery later, with a small overall impact [8] - Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month-on-month, and secondary demand declined marginally. Overall demand is acceptable [8] - Ferrosilicon supply continued to increase significantly, market futures and spot demand are good, and on-balance-sheet inventory decreased slightly. Observe the continuity of "anti-competition" related policies [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] - **Neutral Outlook**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] Core Views - Market sentiment is improving due to expected anti - involution regulations, affecting commodity prices [2][4] - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade impact soybean supply and market expectations [3][4] - Different commodities have unique supply - demand situations and price trends based on seasonality, weather, and trade policies [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybean main contract reduced positions, with prices oscillating upwards. Market sentiment improved due to expected regulations [2] - 45,299 tons of domestic soybeans were auctioned this Friday, with 10,570 tons sold at an average price of 4,110 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic soybeans are growing well, and new soybeans will be listed in late September. Monitor new - season prices and trade policies [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of September 2nd, 16% of US soybean areas were affected by drought. Future weather will be less rainy and hotter [3] - Global oil prices may drive up soybean crushing. Domestic soybean meal is weak, but supply is sufficient in Q4. There may be a supply gap in Q1 next year if Sino - US trade is not resolved [3] - The market may oscillate in the short - term. A cautious bullish view is held for the long - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Main contracts of soybean and palm oil increased positions and prices. Market sentiment improved due to expected regulations [4] - Sino - US soybean trade uncertainty affects supply expectations. Overseas palm oil supply will decrease in Q4, and domestic demand is strong in Q4 [4] - Consider buying on dips in the long - term, while controlling risks [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed main contracts slightly increased positions, with prices stabilizing and rising. Monitor Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations [6] - New - season rapeseed supply from major producers will be abundant. China's rapeseed imports are diversifying, and the domestic market is in a tight - balance state [6] - Domestic rapeseed prices are expected to rise [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to strengthen. As of September 5th, 20 auctions of imported corn totaled about 4.4387 million tons, with 1.434 million tons sold, and the September成交 rate increased [7] - Domestic new - season corn is likely to be a bumper harvest, but old - crop inventory is low. Traders are optimistic about new - season corn [7] - Corn may remain strong before new - grain purchase and then weaken [7] Live Hogs - Live hog futures weakened and then recovered due to expected anti - involution policies. Spot prices are weak, and supply pressure is high in H2 [8] - Monitor policy variables and price support. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see [8] Eggs - Egg futures were pressured by increased positions, halting the previous rebound. Spot prices are rising due to pre - Mid - Autumn Festival demand [9] - Hen culling has increased, and chick replenishment in August was low. Egg - laying hen production is expected to decline by the end of the year [9] - Monitor spot price trends and capacity reduction. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for H1 next year and focus on short - position exits in near - month contracts [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Since late July, the live hog futures market has shifted from a "strong expectation - weak reality" state to a "weak reality - weak expectation" state, with the futures price declining under the drag of weak spot prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weak Reality Drags the Futures Price to Oscillate Lower In the past month, the live hog spot price has been oscillating lower. As of August 27, it dropped to the lowest level of the year at 13.6 yuan/kg. The live hog 2511 contract was dragged by the spot, and the previous premium on the futures side was squeezed [3]. 3.2 The Second Half of the Year Remains in the Period of Realizing Previous Production Capacity, with Ample Supply Yongyi sample data shows that the inventory of breeding sows increased by 0.07% month - on - month in August, with the growth rate slowing down compared to the previous month. Shanghai Steel Union data shows that the inventory of sample breeding sows decreased by 0.01% month - on - month in August. Overall, the supply of live hogs is expected to gradually increase in the second half of this year, as the inventory of breeding sows from November last year to February this year and the number of new - born piglets from March to June this year both indicate an increase in the theoretical slaughter volume of live hogs [6]. 3.3 The Enthusiasm for Secondary Fattening is Suppressed In the first half of the year, the secondary fattening group was in the replenishment stage, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens increased. Since July, due to the decline in the live hog spot price and the new low in August, the secondary fattening group has suffered losses. The current utilization rate of secondary fattening pens is still between 40% - 60%, which is expected to affect the later replenishment enthusiasm [11]. 3.4 Continue to Pay Attention to Policy Variables in the Medium and Long Term As of the end of July 2025, the officially announced inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, 3.6% higher than the normal inventory of 39 million heads proposed in 2024. The pig - grain ratio in large and medium - sized cities has fallen below 6:1 for the second consecutive week, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to possible state reserve purchases [15].

| 11/11/2 | ■控期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月05日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国经济数据喜忧参半，ADP就业人数增加5.4万人低于预期的6.5万人，上周初请失业金人数超预期增 加至23.7万人为6月以来最高水平，ISM服务业PMI上升1.9点至52超过预期的50.1为2月以来新高。本周降息 预期稳固叠加美联储独立性担忧助推贵金属强势运行,聚焦今晚美国非农就业数据指引。 ★美联储——①美国司法部已就抵押贷款事件对库克展开刑事调查。②理事提名人米兰：不建议将美联储控 制权交给总统。③威廉姆斯：就业市场面临的风险正在上升;预测随着时间的推移降息将变得合适。 ★世界黄金协会发布的最新报告显示，8月黄金ETF净流入达55亿美元，主要来自 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Alumina: No clear rating indication [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: No clear rating indication [1] - Zinc: ★★☆, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No clear rating indication [1] - Industrial Silicon: No clear rating indication [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The market is highly concerned about non - farm payroll data, which will affect the market's expectations for the interest rate rhythm after the September interest rate cut [2] - The downstream demand and inventory levels of various metals show different trends, affecting their prices, and the market sentiment is also influenced by factors such as "anti - involution" and policy news [2][3][11] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper regained the 80,000 - yuan mark. Today, the spot copper price dropped to 80,050 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium was slowly adjusted to 165 yuan. Short - term long positions held this week [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated today, with the spot discount in various regions narrowing slightly. The downstream start - up rate increased seasonally, and the inventory is likely to remain low this year, but the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not clear. Shanghai aluminum will maintain short - term oscillation, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price remains at 20,300 yuan. Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, with increasing industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts. The supply surplus is emerging, and the spot prices in various regions are accelerating to decline [3] Zinc - LME zinc inventory decreased to 54,800 tons, with a 0 - 3 month premium of $16.21 per ton. The overseas zinc spot supply is tight, and the loss of zinc ingot exports has narrowed. The short - sellers reduced their positions at low levels, and the price rebounded at the key 22,000 - yuan level. The short - selling of the profit margin on the trading floor is still the general direction [4] Lead - The cost and consumption are in a game, and the market contradiction is insufficient. The direction is unclear, and the trading volume is light. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel weakened, and the market trading volume increased. The impact of the political turmoil in Indonesia is gradually fading. The inventory of pure nickel, ferronickel, and stainless steel all decreased. Shanghai nickel will oscillate at a low level in the short term [7] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin closed up at 271,000 yuan, and the spot tin price was 271,700 yuan. The short - term long positions should be held based on 271,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded sharply, and the market trading volume was light. After the price dropped rapidly, downstream buyers took the opportunity to purchase, and traders increased their inventory. Wait for the price to fall before going long [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose sharply, driven by the "anti - involution" performance of polysilicon. The supply is expected to increase by 5% in September, while the demand is expected to decrease. The short - term bullish sentiment may continue to ferment [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures broke through the upper limit of the 55,000 - yuan/ton range. The spot price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material increased by 5,000 yuan/ton. The short - term sentiment may continue to ferment, and attention should be paid to position control [11]

Group 1: Reported Metals and Their Price Changes - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 80,050, down 140; SMM flat - water copper premium is 70, down 5 [1] - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,660, up 50; SMM A00 aluminum premium is 0, up 20 [1] - Alumina (Shanxi) price is 3,100, down 40; Australian alumina FOB average price is 368, no change [1] - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,725, no change; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 80, down 10 [1] - Recycled refined lead average price is 16,700, no change; refined - scrap spread is 25, no change [1] - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,020, up 50; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 15, up 30 [1] - SMM 1 tin average price is 271,700, down 500; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 500, down 70 [1] - 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 259,700, down 500; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan)/SMM 1 tin ratio is 95.58% [1] - 1 imported nickel average price is 121,050, down 350; 1 imported nickel premium to the SHFE nickel contract average price is 350, no change [1] - 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 122,750, down 350; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to the SHFE nickel contract average price is 2,050, no change [1] - Oxygen - blown 553 (Xinjiang) average price + 800 with regional discount + 200 for quality impurity removal is 9,500, no change; 553 spot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 940, down 75 [1] - 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 9,650; polysilicon dense material average price is 0; granular silicon average price is 0; N - type polysilicon material average price is 51.6 [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 74,750, down 250; battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,450, down 790 [1] - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 72,500; battery - industrial carbon spread is 2,250, down 50 [1] Group 2: Analysts Information - Xiao Jing, Chief Analyst, studies copper and tin, with qualification number F3047773 and investment consulting number Z0014087 [1] - Liu Dongbo, Senior Analyst, studies aluminum, alumina, and gold, with qualification number F3062795 and investment consulting number Z0015311 [1] - Yan Jiang, Senior Analyst, studies nickel, stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with qualification number F3085524 and investment consulting number Z0016394 [1] - Sun Pupu, Intermediate Analyst, studies zinc, with qualification number EU3111330 and investment consulting number 70018905 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the average prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals and related products on September 4, 2025, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium [1]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 80,190, down 330; SMM flat - water copper premium is 75, down 30 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,610, down 120; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 20, up 10. Alumina (Shanxi) price is 3,140, down 15; Australian alumina FOB average price is 368 (USD), unchanged [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,725, down 25; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 70, up 30. Recycled refined lead average price is 16,700, down 25; the price difference between refined and scrap lead is 25, unchanged [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 21,970, down 270; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 45, down 15 [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 272,200, down 900; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 570, up 170. 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 260,200, down 900; the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.59% [1]. Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 121,400, down 375; 1 imported nickel premium to the Shanghai nickel contract is 350, unchanged. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 123,100, down 425; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to the Shanghai nickel contract is 2,050, down 50 [1]. Silicon - Oxygen - permeable 553 (Xinjiang) average price plus 800, with a regional discount of 200 for quality impurity removal, is 9,500, unchanged; 553 spot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,015, unchanged. 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 9,650. The average price of polycrystalline silicon dense material is 0, the average price of granular silicon is 0, and the average price of N - type polycrystalline silicon material is 51.5 [1]. Lithium - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 75,000, down 900; battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 2,240, down 760. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 72,700; the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,300, unchanged [1]. 4. Analyst Information - Xiao Jing, Chief Analyst, studies copper and tin, with qualification number F3047773 and investment consulting number Z0014087 [1]. - Liu Dongbo, Senior Analyst, studies aluminum, alumina, and gold, with qualification number F3062795 and investment consulting number Z0015311 [1]. - Wu Jiang, Senior Analyst, studies nickel, stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with qualification number F3085524 and investment consulting number Z0016394 [1]. - Sun Fangfang, Intermediate Analyst, studies aluminum and zinc, with qualification number F03111330 and investment consulting number Z0018905 [1]. - Zhang Xiurui, Intermediate Analyst, studies industrial silicon, with qualification number F03099436 and investment consulting number Z0021022 [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation, with different commodities having their own supply - demand dynamics and price trends. Some commodities are expected to be under pressure, while others may have opportunities for price increases or remain in a state of shock. Market participants need to pay attention to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and geopolitical events [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with the Brent 11 - contract down 0.76%. The increase in US EIA crude oil inventories last week was bearish for the market. Considering the increase in OPEC+ production in September and the weakening demand after the peak season, the supply - demand balance may turn negative. It is recommended to hold short positions in the SC11 contract [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and Fujairah fuel oil inventories increased. The third - batch quota release was delayed, and the supply pressure of LU eased. FU lacks obvious drivers but may get geopolitical premium support [20] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the end of the gas off - season, it shows certain resilience. Import cost increases and domestic demand rebounds, but high - level warehouse receipts pressure the market. The short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [22] - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the content - **Coal**: - **Coke**: The price rebounded during the day. The first round of price cuts in the coking industry partially landed. The overall inventory decreased slightly, and the price is affected by policy expectations and is under short - term pressure [16] - **Coking Coal**: The price rebounded during the day. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the total inventory decreased. The price is affected by policy expectations and is under short - term pressure [17] - **Urea**: The Indian NFL urea tender price was announced, and the supply in the domestic market is sufficient. The market is expected to operate in a shock. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of the Indian tender [23] - **Methanol**: The night - session price rose. Import volume remained high, and port and inland inventories increased. Although the current situation is weak, the market expectation is strong due to the expected increase in downstream demand [24] - **Pure Benzene**: The night - session price rebounded. The domestic supply increased, and the demand was weak. The supply - demand situation may improve in the third quarter, but the upside is limited [25] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost support is insufficient, and the supply - demand situation is average. There is high inventory pressure at the wharf [26] - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The demand for propylene is weak, and the supply of polyethylene and polypropylene is relatively loose. The market lacks a strong one - sided trend driver [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is running weakly, with increasing supply and inventory. Caustic soda is in a wide - range shock, with low inventory but supply pressure [28] - **PX & PTA**: The night - session prices were in a weak shock. The terminal demand is improving, but the growth space of PX production is limited [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price rebounded due to the news of postponed new - device production. The supply and demand are mixed, and the downward resistance increases [30] - **Short Fibre & Bottle Chip**: Short - fibre supply and demand are stable, and the price follows the cost. Bottle - chip profit is passively repaired, but there is long - term over - capacity pressure [31] - **Glass**: The price is in a shock. The factory inventory increased due to logistics control, and the demand improvement is limited [32] - **20 - Number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and the demand is weak. The inventory decreased, and the market sentiment improved. It is recommended to wait and see [33] - **Soda Ash**: The price is in a shock. The industry inventory increased, and the long - term supply is under high pressure. It is advisable to short at high prices [34] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight US economic data was mixed. The ADP employment number was lower than expected, while the ISM services PMI was higher. The precious metals market was strong, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm payroll data [2] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The overnight copper price fell. The market is concerned about the US non - farm payroll data and copper demand. Short - term long positions can be held [3] - **Aluminium**: The overnight price continued to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate increased seasonally, and the price is expected to test the resistance at 21,000 yuan [4] - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply is in surplus. The price is running weakly, and attention should be paid to the support at 2,830 yuan [5] - **Cast Aluminium Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminium, and the price difference between spot and futures may narrow [6] - **Zinc**: The fundamentals are bearish, with increasing supply and weak demand. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The cost and consumption are in a game, and the market direction is unclear. The price is expected to fluctuate [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price of Shanghai Nickel is in a weak shock. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel decreased. The price may be affected by the political situation in Indonesia [9] - **Tin**: The overnight tin price fell. The inventory of LME tin increased slightly. The price of Shanghai Tin followed the decline, and short - term long positions can be held at low levels [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is in a low - level shock, and the market trading is dull. The downstream increased inventory, and the price is expected to fluctuate [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is in a shock. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. The price is mainly driven by emotions [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price fluctuates around 52,000 yuan/ton. The market is dominated by emotions, and the price is expected to be under pressure [13] - **Iron Ore**: The overnight price fluctuated. Global shipments increased, and the demand from the steel industry decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price opened low and rebounded. The demand from the iron and steel industry is high, and the production of manganese silicon increased. The price is expected to be supported [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price opened low and rebounded. The demand is fair, and the supply increased. The inventory decreased slightly [19] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Long - term, the market is cautiously bullish [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The prices fluctuate, waiting for new drivers. They can be considered for buying at low prices in the long term [36] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed is under harvest pressure, and the domestic rapeseed market is in a tight - balance state. The futures price may stabilize in the short term [37] - **Soybean No. 1**: The price of domestic soybeans fluctuates. Pay attention to the new - season soybean opening price and trade policies [38] - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures price rebounded. The new - season corn is expected to be a good harvest, and the price may be strong in the short term and weak at the bottom in the long term [39] - **Hogs**: The futures price decreased, and the supply pressure is dominant. The price may continue to decline, but demand may be supported during festivals [40] - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuates. The spot price rose, and the industry is accelerating capacity reduction. Consider long positions in the far - month contracts [41] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fluctuates, and the production may increase. The Zhengzhou cotton price may continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to buy on dips [42] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price continued to fall, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43] - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuates. The short - term price may rise due to the good performance of early - maturing apples, but the long - term supply is not bullish [44] - **Timber**: The price is in a downward shock. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: The futures price rose slightly. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade in a range [46] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock market weakened yesterday, and the futures index contracts fell. The short - term market may change from a smooth upward trend to a shock - upward trend. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price of treasury bonds rose. The bond supply in September is at a high level. The yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market is facing potential supply - demand imbalances, with a bearish outlook if OPEC+ further releases production capacity [1]. - Precious metals are strongly influenced by interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, and the focus is on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - Different metals and commodities have varying trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand changes, and inventory adjustments, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each [1][2][3]. - The stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend, and the market style suggests increasing the allocation of technology - growth sectors while also paying attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - The yield curve of treasury bonds is likely to steepen, and attention should be paid to the supply of government bonds and the matching of funds [48]. Summaries by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent 11 contract down 0.76%. US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2415000 barrels last week. If OPEC+ further releases the remaining 1.657 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts, the supply - demand will be bearish. Hold short positions on the SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and Fujairah fuel oil inventories increased. The third batch of quotas was released later than expected. The supply pressure of LU has eased, and its warehouse receipts decreased slightly. FU lacks obvious drivers but may get geopolitical premium support [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The 9 - month CP remained stable. After the gas off - season, it showed some resilience. Supported by rising import costs and rebounding domestic demand, the price of civil gas increased. The high - basis difference pattern is maintained, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [22]. - **Coal (Coke and Coking Coal)**: The prices of coke and coking coal rebounded during the day. The first round of coke price cuts was partially implemented. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and are under short - term pressure [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight US economic data was mixed. Supported by stable interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, precious metals are strongly running. Focus on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell. The market is highly concerned about the non - farm data. Short - term long positions can still be held, paying attention to the performance at 79500 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate has seasonally increased. It is expected to test the resistance in the 21000 - yuan area in the short term [4]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand. The inventory of Shanghai zinc increased, and it may test the key level of 22000 yuan. The idea of shorting the profit of the futures market remains unchanged [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel weakened, and the market trading picked up. The political unrest in Indonesia has gradually subsided. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel decreased. Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fell. The inventory of LME tin increased slightly. Shanghai tin adjusted to 271000 yuan. Short - term long positions can be flexibly held based on 270000 - 271000 yuan [10]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The import volume remained high, and the port inventory increased significantly. The supply in the inland area increased, and the production enterprises' inventory increased slightly. Although the current situation is weak, the market is expected to be strong due to the expected increase in downstream demand [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The night - trading chemical market stabilized, and pure benzene rebounded to 6000 yuan/ton. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The market may improve in the third quarter, but the positive factors are limited [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The downstream products of propylene face high cost pressure, and the demand for propylene is weak. The supply of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is gradually entering the peak season, but the actual demand recovery is slow [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is running weakly with increasing supply and weak demand. It may fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda is weak. The overall inventory is increasing, and it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation pattern [28]. - **PX and PTA**: PX and PTA are weakly oscillating. The terminal weaving orders are increasing, but the production growth of PX is limited. Attention should be paid to the oil price direction and the PX - polyester balance [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade is uncertain, and the soybean meal may continue to oscillate in the short term. The global soybean oil market is strong, which may drive up the soybean crushing volume. In the long - term, the soybean meal is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are oscillating. The supply of Chinese soybeans in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. Overseas palm oil is in the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, and the domestic demand is in the peak season. Consider buying at low prices [36]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed is under harvesting pressure, and its export is declining. The domestic rapeseed market is expected to be in a tight - balance state, and the futures may stabilize in the short term [37]. - **Corn**: The domestic new - season corn is likely to have a good harvest, but the old - crop carry - over inventory is low. Corn may continue to oscillate strongly before and after the new - grain purchase, and then may run weakly at the bottom [39]. - **Cotton**: US cotton is oscillating narrowly. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to oscillate, with strong support below and limited upward space in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar prices are falling. The domestic sugar sales are fast, and the inventory pressure is light. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apple**: The early - maturing apple prices are high, and the short - term price may continue to rise. However, the supply - side positive factors are limited in the long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. Others - **Stock Index**: The stock market was weak yesterday, and the stock index futures all fell. The short - term macro situation is uncertain, and the stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The net supply of government bonds in September is expected to be high. The yield curve is likely to steepen [48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★ [1] Core Views - The oil market supply and demand have been basically balanced since the third quarter, but the inventory accumulation pressure is expected to increase due to OPEC+ production increase in September and weaker demand after the peak season, providing a bearish guidance for oil prices [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil has relatively weak follow-up increase compared to crude oil, while low-sulfur fuel oil has given back most of its previous gains. The supply pressure of LU has eased, and FU has received a phased geopolitical premium boost [3] - The geopolitical conflict between Venezuela and the US may affect Venezuelan oil shipments. The inventories of asphalt have continued to decline, and the short-term BU is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - After the end of the gas off-season, LPG shows certain resilience. The import cost increase and domestic demand rebound support the price, and the short-term futures market shows a pattern of near-term strength and far-term weakness [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC10 contract rising 0.57% intraday. The net long positions in overseas crude oil futures and options are at a low level, and oil prices are still sensitive to geopolitical fluctuations. The US issued a new round of sanctions against Iranian oil sales on Tuesday [2] - Consider the opportunity to short on rallies when the SC11 contract rebounds above 495 yuan/barrel driven by this round of geopolitical fluctuations, and use out-of-the-money call options for protection [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil has relatively weak follow-up increase compared to crude oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil has given back most of its previous gains. The inventories of Singapore and Fujairah have both increased month-on-month [3] - The third batch of quotas has been issued much later than market expectations. As the utilization rate increases, the supply pressure of LU has eased, providing certain support for prices. The FU warehouse receipts decreased by 11,280 tons today, and the geopolitical conflicts in high-sulfur resource supply countries have given FU a phased geopolitical premium boost [3] Asphalt - The geopolitical conflict between Venezuela and the US is intensifying, and it is necessary to track and observe whether it will affect Venezuelan oil shipments [4] - The latest data shows that both factory and social inventories have continued to decline, meeting the previous expectation of marginal tightening of supply and demand. The short-term BU is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the 10 contract is strongly supported at 3,500 yuan/ton [4] - For the spread strategy, continue to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the cracking spread between BU and the SC10 contract on pullbacks [4] LPG - LPG prices have remained stable in September. After the end of the gas off-season, it shows certain resilience. After the previous rapid decline, the bearish pressure has been released, and the international market has strong bottom support due to the strong chemical demand in East Asia recently [5] - The increase in import cost and the rebound in domestic demand support the price, and the price of civil gas has been raised. Although the high level of warehouse receipts puts pressure on the futures market, the stabilization of the spot market eases the delivery pressure, and the high basis pattern remains. The short-term futures market shows a pattern of near-term strength and far-term weakness [5]