Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - As of the week ending September 3, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, and the pod-setting rate was 93%, with the good-to-excellent rate declining from a historically high level. The good-to-excellent rate of US corn was 69%, in line with market expectations, and the dough stage rate was 89%, with the good-to-excellent rate slightly decreasing [1]. - In the next two weeks, the temperature in the main production areas of US soybeans and corn will be slightly lower, but the lack of rain will gradually worsen, posing challenges to the growth of new-season crops. Soil moisture decreased week-on-week but was better than the same period last year [1]. - The overall weather in the US has shifted from a stable state to a dry one, and the good-to-excellent rates of both US soybeans and corn have declined. Continued observation of weather changes in the production areas is needed [1]. - The results of the US ProFarmer crop tour showed that the yield per unit of US soybeans and corn was predicted to be lower than the data in the August USDA monthly report but still at a record high. Attention should be paid to the data adjustment in the USDA September report next week [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean - The current good-to-excellent rate is 65%, the previous week was 69%, and the same period last year was 65% [1]. - The sowing rate (halted) is 96%, the previous week was 97%, and the same period last year was 96% [1]. - The emergence rate (halted) is 96%, the previous week was 98%, and the same period last year was 98% [1]. - The flowering rate (halted) is 95%, and the same period last year was 95% [1]. - The pod-setting rate is 93%, the previous week was 89%, and the same period last year was 94%, with a 5-year average of 94% [1]. Corn - The current good-to-excellent rate is 69%, the previous week was 71%, and the same period last year was 65% [1]. - The sowing rate (halted) is 97%, the previous week was 98%, and the same period last year was 96% [1]. - The emergence rate (halted) is 97%, the previous week was 98%, and the same period last year was 96% [1]. - The silking rate (halted) is 97%, and the same period last year was 98% [1]. - The dough stage rate is 89%, the previous week was 83%, and the same period last year was 90%, with a 5-year average of 91% [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (interpreted as a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ (interpreted as the short - term long/short trend being in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chips: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical futures market shows complex trends, with different products having different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are affected by factors such as inventory, production capacity, seasonal demand, and policy expectations [2][3][5]. - For products like methanol and urea, although the current supply is abundant and the market is weak, there are expectations of improvement in the future due to factors such as downstream demand recovery and pre - holiday stocking [6]. - Some products, such as soda ash and glass, are in a situation of high inventory and weak reality, but also have low - valuation characteristics, and their price trends need to be judged based on different market conditions [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly. Enterprises' inventory is low, and offers continue to rise, but high - price transactions are limited [2]. - Polyolefin futures also fluctuate narrowly. Polyethylene supply increases, and demand enters the traditional peak season. Polypropylene supply is relatively loose, and the actual demand recovers slowly [2]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene returns to above 6000 yuan/ton at night and fluctuates narrowly during the day. Supply increases, demand is weak, and the port inventory accumulates. The market may improve in the third quarter [3]. - Styrene futures get support at the previous low. The cost support is insufficient, and the supply - demand situation is average with high inventory at the terminal [3]. Polyester - PX continues to be weak, and PTA falls with increased positions. The terminal orders increase, but the actual improvement is limited. PX lacks support [5]. - Ethylene glycol fluctuates narrowly at a low level. Supply increases, and the supply - demand situation is weakly stable. There are both supply pressure and demand improvement factors in the medium - term [5]. - Short - fiber supply - demand is stable, and the price fluctuates with the cost. New capacity is limited this year, and the industry expectation is boosted by the peak - season demand [5]. - Bottle chips industry has long - term over - capacity pressure, and the processing margin runs at a low level [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol imports remain high, and the port inventory accumulates rapidly. Supply increases, but the market expectation is strong due to downstream demand recovery and pre - holiday stocking [6]. - Urea price drops significantly. Supply is sufficient, and the market may oscillate weakly before new positive factors appear [6]. Chlor - alkali - PVC fluctuates narrowly. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate weakly [7]. - Caustic soda price weakens. The inventory situation varies in different regions. The price is relatively firm but may oscillate widely [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillates. The supply is high, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to short at high - rebound levels, but be cautious at low - valuation levels [8]. - Glass oscillates. The spot price varies, and the factory inventory decreases. The demand is weak, but the price decline may be limited due to low valuation [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending September 3, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, and the pod-setting rate was 93%, with the good-to-excellent rate declining from a historically high level in the same period [1]. - The good-to-excellent rate of US corn was 69%, in line with market expectations, and the dough stage rate was 89%, with the good-to-excellent rate slightly decreasing [1]. - In the next two weeks, the temperature in the main growing areas of US soybeans and corn will be slightly lower, and the lack of rain will gradually become more severe, posing challenges to the growth of new-season crops [1]. - The US ProFarmer crop tour results show that the predicted yields per unit of US soybeans and corn are lower than the data in the August USDA monthly report but are still at a record high [1]. Summary by Related Data Soybean Data - Good-to-excellent rate: Current 65%, previous week 69%, same period last year 65%, 5-year average 69% [1]. - Sowing rate (stopped): Current 96%, previous data 97%, same period last year 96% [1]. - Emergence rate (stopped): Current 96%, previous data 98%, same period last year 98% [1]. - Flowering rate (stopped): Current 95%, previous data 94%, same period last year 95% [1]. - Pod-setting rate: Current 93%, previous data 89%, same period last year 94%, 5-year average 94% [1]. Corn Data - Good-to-excellent rate: Current 69%, previous week 71%, same period last year 65% [1]. - Sowing rate (stopped): Current 97%, previous data 98%, same period last year 96% [1]. - Emergence rate (stopped): Current 97%, previous data 98%, same period last year 96% [1]. - Silking rate (stopped): Current 97%, previous data 97%, same period last year 98% [1]. - Dough stage rate: Current 89%, previous data 83%, same period last year 90%, 5-year average 91% [1]. - Concave damage rate: 58% [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆★, with a bullish bias and some potential for trading [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight, the US announced an 8 - month ISM manufacturing PMI of 48.7, slightly lower than expected. The increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut and concerns about the Fed's independence have boosted the strong performance of precious metals. Maintain a long - position in precious metals [1] - Focus on the US non - farm payroll data on Friday. A continued weak performance would confirm the rate - cut expectation, while a strong performance could trigger an adjustment. Also, pay attention to the US JOLTs job openings data tonight [1] Group 3: Other Key Information - Trump will hold an emergency meeting on tariff rulings on Wednesday and may appeal to the Supreme Court as early as Wednesday. If the tariff appeal is rejected, tariffs may have to be withdrawn, and trillions of dollars may have to be refunded. Trump claims the stock market decline is due to the need for tariff policies [1] - The US Housing Finance Agency Director will present the latest information on Fed Governor Cook's mortgage fraud case at 10 am EST on Thursday [2] - Russia and the US Foreign Ministry will hold consultations [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The copper market's trading sentiment has been boosted by the rise of precious metals, and short - term trading is also affected by the Fed's potential September rate cut and domestic refined copper consumption substitution. The market is still cautious about the peak season. Short - term long positions should be held based on the MA5 moving average, and attention should be paid to the change in the premium of the call option with a strike price of 82,000 for the 2510 contract [2]. - The downstream开工 of aluminum has been seasonally rising for four consecutive weeks, and the inventory is likely to be low this year, but the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not clear. Shanghai aluminum will maintain a short - term shock, with resistance in the 21,000 yuan area. The price difference between scrap aluminum and Shanghai aluminum may further narrow. Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, and the industry is in a weak operation [3]. - Zinc prices are supported in the short - term due to the expected decrease in smelter output in September and low inventories in the outer market. However, the mid - line short - allocation idea remains unchanged, waiting for short - selling opportunities in the 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton range [4]. - The supply pressure of aluminum is slightly reduced, but the terminal consumption has not improved fundamentally. The price will maintain a short - term shock in the 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton range [6]. - The price of nickel has rebounded due to the expected impact of political unrest in Indonesia on nickel production. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel has decreased. The short - term trend of Shanghai nickel is volatile [7]. - The tin market has the theme of concentrate shortage, but attention should be paid to the changes in social inventory and funds. Short - term long positions should be held based on 271,000 [8]. - After the price of lithium carbonate dropped rapidly, downstream buyers took the opportunity to receive goods, and traders increased their inventory. The overall sentiment is low, and the trend is volatile [9]. - The supply surplus of industrial silicon will intensify in September, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [10]. - The polysilicon futures fluctuate around 52,000 yuan/ton. After the price increase, attention should be paid to the actual transaction. Before the new policy details are disclosed, the PS2511 price is expected to be under pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [11] Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - Wednesday, Shanghai copper broke through 80,000 yuan but gave back the gains. The spot copper price was raised to 80,520 yuan, and the premium in Shanghai was 190 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated today, and the spot discount in various places remained. The downstream开工 has been rising seasonally for four consecutive weeks, and the inventory is likely to be low this year, but the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not clear. The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is volatile, with resistance in the 21,000 yuan area. The price of cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the spot price of Baotai remains at 20,300 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax rate policy increases the enterprise cost. The price difference between the spot and Shanghai aluminum may further narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the impact of major events in the north is very limited. The industry inventory and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange are both rising [3] Zinc - In September, the output of smelters is expected to decrease month - on - month, which forms a short - term resonance with the low inventory in the outer market, supporting the zinc price. The demand expectation is mixed, and the short - term trend of Shanghai zinc is volatile. The increase in ore supply is being continuously realized, and the mid - line short - allocation idea remains unchanged, waiting for short - selling opportunities in the 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton range [4] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed down. The spot tin price was reported at 273,100 yuan. The domestic tin market has the theme of concentrate shortage, but attention should be paid to the changes in social inventory and funds. Short - term long positions should be held based on 271,000 [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly. After the price dropped rapidly, downstream buyers took the opportunity to receive goods, and traders increased their inventory by 2,000 tons to 45,000 tons. The mid - stream continues to bet on price increases, and the transfer of goods is mainly from upstream to downstream. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 880 US dollars, and the ore price has slightly adjusted. The overall sentiment is low, and the trend is volatile [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly down. The weekly output in Xinjiang continues to increase, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan is expected to be reduced at the end of October. The output of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decrease. The supply surplus contradiction will intensify in September, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures fluctuate around 52,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of spot M - type dense material is 50,000 yuan/ton. In the last week of August, the downstream concentrated procurement volume increased. After the price increase, attention should be paid to the actual transaction. Before the new policy details are disclosed, the PS2511 price is expected to be under pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★ (one star represents a bullish bias, but with limited operability on the market) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ (indicating a clearer bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market supply - demand was basically balanced in Q3. With a 1.4% drawdown in crude oil inventory and a 2.6% build - up in refined oil inventory, the overall oil inventory increased slightly by 0.1%. Considering the further increase in OPEC+ production in September and the weakening demand after the peak season, there is growing inventory build - up pressure, and the supply - demand situation provides a bearish signal for oil prices. However, short - term oil prices are relatively resilient, and there is an opportunity to short at high levels when the SC11 contract rebounds above 495 yuan/barrel [1]. - High and low - sulfur fuel oils both rose today, with LU having a relatively stronger upward trend. Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year as of the end of July, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year - on - year. At the same time, domestic refineries' enthusiasm for producing marine fuel was low, with supply decreasing by 19% year - on - year as of July. Multiple factors led to the rebound of LU and the strengthening of FU [2]. - As the traditional peak season arrives, asphalt demand increases seasonally, and supply - demand tightens marginally. The 10 - contract is clearly supported at 3500 yuan/ton, but the upside space is limited for now. In the short term, BU is expected to fluctuate strongly. For spread strategies, one can continuously pay attention to going long the crack spread between BU and the SC10 contract on pullbacks [3]. - The 9 - month CP of LPG remained stable, showing some resilience after the end of the gas off - season. After the previous rapid decline, the bearish pressure was released, and with strong East Asian chemical demand recently, the international market has good bottom support. Import costs have risen and domestic demand has rebounded, supporting the increase in civil gas prices. Although high warrant levels put pressure on the futures market, the stabilization of the spot market eases the delivery pressure, and the high - basis situation persists, with the short - term futures market showing a near - strong and far - weak pattern [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply - demand balance in Q3: Crude oil inventory decreased by 1.4%, refined oil inventory increased by 2.6%, and overall oil inventory increased slightly by 0.1% [1]. - Future trends: With increased OPEC+ production in September and weakening demand after the peak season, inventory build - up pressure will increase, and the supply - demand situation is bearish for oil prices [1]. - Investment strategy: Wait for the SC11 contract to rebound above 495 yuan/barrel to short at high levels, and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Market performance: Both high and low - sulfur fuel oils rose, with LU having a stronger upward trend [2]. - Demand situation: Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year as of the end of July, and China's bonded marine fuel bunkering demand decreased by 1% year - on - year [2]. - Supply situation: Domestic refineries' enthusiasm for producing marine fuel was low, with supply decreasing by 19% year - on - year as of July [2]. - Factors for price increase: Crude oil rebounded due to geopolitical premiums, the third - batch quota was later than expected, and the supply pressure of LU was postponed [2]. Asphalt - Market situation: As the traditional peak season arrives, demand increases seasonally, and supply - demand tightens marginally, with faster inventory drawdown in refinery and social inventories [3]. - Price trend: The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton, and in the short term, BU is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. - Spread strategy: Continuously pay attention to going long the crack spread between BU and the SC10 contract on pullbacks [3]. LPG - Market performance: The 9 - month CP remained stable, showing resilience after the end of the gas off - season [4]. - International market: After the previous rapid decline, the bearish pressure was released, and with strong East Asian chemical demand, the international market has good bottom support [4]. - Domestic market: Import costs have risen, domestic demand has rebounded, and civil gas prices have increased. Although high warrant levels put pressure on the futures market, the stabilization of the spot market eases the delivery pressure, and the high - basis situation persists, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern in the short - term futures market [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: Strong bullish trend, with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Not specified in the given content - Iron ore: Strong bullish trend, with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Coke: Strong bullish trend, with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Coking coal: Strong bullish trend, with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Silicomanganese: Bullish, with a driving force for upward trend but limited operability on the market [1] - Ferrosilicon: Strong bullish trend, with appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Views - The market is gradually returning to fundamentals. Under the negative feedback expectation, the price of steel products is under pressure, and the decline may slow down after continuous adjustment. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The prices of coke and coking coal are affected by policy expectations and have high short - term volatility, and are under short - term pressure. The prices of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are relatively stable, with good demand and certain support [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market is mainly in a volatile state. The apparent demand for thread has recovered month - on - month, production has increased, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The demand and production of hot - rolled coils have slightly declined, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, and the molten iron production has declined from a high level. The negative feedback expectation has increased. The overall domestic demand is still weak, while exports are expected to remain high [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore has increased significantly month - on - month, reaching a new high for the year. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded, and the port inventory is oscillating without pressure to accumulate. The molten iron production is expected to decline significantly in the short term. The macro - positive factors have been partially realized, and the speculative sentiment is expected to remain. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - The coke price has fluctuated widely. The first round of price cuts in coking has been partially implemented, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The overall inventory has slightly decreased, and the purchasing willingness of traders has declined. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is affected by policy expectations and has high short - term volatility, being under short - term pressure [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price has fluctuated widely. The production of coking coal mines has slightly increased, the spot auction transactions have weakened, and the terminal inventory has slightly decreased. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory has increased. The price is affected by policy expectations and has high short - term volatility, being under short - term pressure [5] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price has been volatile. The molten iron production remains at a high level. The weekly production has continued to increase, and the inventory has not accumulated. The manganese ore price has slightly decreased this week, but the price has limited downside space due to pre - stocking by manufacturers. In the long - term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price has been volatile. The molten iron production has slightly decreased but remains above 240. The export demand is about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month - on - month. The supply has continued to increase significantly, the market demand is good, and the inventory has slightly decreased [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple industries and commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, providing insights into market trends, supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies for each sector [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 11 contract up 1.34%. In the third quarter, the oil market supply - demand was balanced. Considering OPEC+ output increase in September and post - peak demand decline, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Look for shorting opportunities when SC11 rebounds above 495 yuan/barrel [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and Chinese ship - fuel sales declined year - on - year, but domestic refinery production was also low. Due to geopolitical premium and delayed supply pressure, LU rebounded and FU strengthened [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the gas off - season, it shows some resilience. Supported by rising import costs and domestic demand, the civil gas price increased. The high - basis difference pattern persists, and the short - term market is strong in the near term and weak in the long term [24] - **Asphalt**: In the traditional peak season, demand increases seasonally, and supply - demand tightens. The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, the US manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. Maintain a long position and focus on the US non - farm payroll data on Friday [3] - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices broke through integer thresholds. In the short - to - medium term, it is affected by the Fed rate cut, domestic refined copper consumption substitution, and capital resonance. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Downstream开工率 has increased seasonally for four weeks. It is expected to test the resistance at 21,000 yuan in the short term [5] - **Alumina**: Production capacity is at a historical high, with rising inventory and supply surplus. It is running weakly, and pay attention to the support at 2830 - 3000 yuan [6] - **Zinc**: In September, refinery maintenance may reduce output. In the short term, it rebounds, but in the medium term, maintain a short - allocation strategy [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Due to political unrest in Indonesia, prices rebounded. Short - term short positions are suspended, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin recovered some losses. There is a shortage of concentrates, and short - term long positions can be held based on 271,000 yuan [11] - **Manganese Silicon**: Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. In the long term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory [19] - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is increasing, demand is okay, and inventory is slightly decreasing [20] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Futures prices declined, and the market was quiet. The overall sentiment is low, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [12] - **Polysilicon**: It oscillated below 52,000 yuan/ton. Before new policy details are disclosed, the PS2511 price is expected to face pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices rose slightly. In September, supply surplus will intensify, and there is a risk of a price decline after the current up - trend [14] - **Methanol**: Coastal available supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating. But with the improvement of downstream device economics, the market is expected to strengthen [26] - **Pure Benzene**: Oil prices rebounded, and benzene prices stopped falling. In the third quarter, supply - demand may improve [27] - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene provide little support. Supply - demand contradiction is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Propylene production enterprises have controllable inventory pressure, but downstream acceptance of price increases is limited. Polyethylene demand is okay, while polypropylene supply pressure is increasing [29] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is high, and it may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda prices are relatively firm but may also oscillate widely [30] - **PX and PTA**: Prices are oscillating at a low level. Demand is improving, but the actual improvement is limited [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices fluctuate around 4350 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weakening, and there are both long and short factors in the medium term [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: There is uncertainty in Sino - US trade. In the short term, it may oscillate, and in the long term, there is a cautious bullish view on domestic soybean meal [37] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Prices rebounded. In the long term, consider buying at low prices, but pay attention to volatility risks [38] - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak at night. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, it may continue to run weakly at the bottom [40] - **Pigs**: Spot prices are mixed, and futures prices are weak. There is downward pressure on prices under large supply [41] - **Eggs**: Spot prices are stable, and futures prices rebounded. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for next year [42] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton may continue to oscillate. Consider buying on dips [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices are trending down, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate [44] - **Apples**: Futures prices are oscillating at a high level. In the short term, prices may rise, but in the long term, there is limited upside [45] - **Timber**: Futures prices are oscillating. Supply may remain low, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [46] - **Paper Pulp**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and a wait - and - see or range - trading approach is recommended [47] Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: MSC announced empty - sailing plans for the Golden Week. Spot prices are under pressure, and the market is expected to oscillate [21] - **Stock Index**: The market is adjusting, and there is short - term macro uncertainty. Increase allocation to technology - growth sectors [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures prices oscillated flat. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: Soybean No. 1 (★★★), Soybean Meal (★★★), Soybean Oil (★★★), Palm Oil (★★★), Corn (★★★), Egg (★★★) - **Sell**: Rapeseed Meal (★☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (★☆☆), Live Pig (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The market for agricultural products shows a mixed trend, with different commodities facing various supply - demand situations and policy impacts. Short - term price movements are affected by factors such as inventory changes, seasonal harvests, and trade policies, while long - term trends are influenced by global supply - demand fundamentals and biofuel development [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - The short - term price of the domestic soybean main contract continues to rebound due to short - covering. The auction turnover rate has increased, and market marginal supply has risen. The growth of domestic soybeans is good, and new beans will be listed in late September [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The bull market for domestic soybean meal needs to wait due to Sino - US trade uncertainties. The external market shows an oil - strong and meal - weak situation. Domestic soybean meal's decline is limited by import costs. The supply in Q4 is sufficient, but there may be a supply gap in Q1 next year if Sino - US trade issues remain unresolved. The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the long term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil shows a rebound trend after a short - term price correction. Soybean oil prices are still weak. The price of US soybeans is under pressure but also has support. The near - term supply of domestic soybeans is abundant, while the long - term supply is affected by Sino - US trade. Considering the long - term development of biofuels, it is advisable to buy soybean and palm oil at low prices [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed products market shows a narrow - range fluctuation. The global rapeseed supply will be in a stage of relaxation, and the domestic rapeseed market is expected to be in a tight - balance state. The rapeseed futures may stabilize in the short term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures continue to rebound due to feed enterprises' inventory replenishment. The new - season corn is expected to be relatively abundant. After the enthusiasm for new - grain acquisition fades, the futures may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pig - The spot price of live pigs shows a pattern of strong in the south and weak in the north. The futures price continues to be weak. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in September, but demand may be supported by festivals. The pig price is under downward pressure [8] Egg - The spot price of eggs is stable, and the futures price rebounds. The elimination of old hens has accelerated, and the number of newly - laid hens is expected to decline. It is advisable to consider long positions in the far - month contracts for next year's H1 [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various commodities and financial instruments, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price outlooks for each category, suggesting trading strategies based on the analysis. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 11 contract up 1.34%. The oil market is sensitive to geopolitical events. After Q3, due to OPEC+ production increase and weaker demand, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Consider shorting SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel with protective options [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and China's ship - fuel sales declined, but domestic refinery production was also low. With crude oil's geopolitical premium and delayed LU supply pressure, both LU and FU strengthened [22]. - **Asphalt**: In the traditional peak season, demand is increasing seasonally, and inventories are decreasing. The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton and is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term. Consider a spread strategy on BU and SC10 [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the off - season, it shows resilience. With rising import costs and rebounding demand, the spot price is up. The high - basis situation persists, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, the US manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, increasing the Fed's rate - cut expectation and boosting precious metals. Hold long positions and focus on US employment data [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices broke through key levels. Short - term prices are affected by the Fed's rate cut, consumption substitution, and capital resonance. Hold short - term long positions and pay attention to call - option premiums [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum was strongly oscillating. Downstream开工率 has been rising seasonally, and inventory is likely to remain low. It will test the resistance at 21000 yuan in the short - term [5]. - **Alumina**: Production capacity is at a historical high, and supply surplus is emerging. The price is weak but may not fall deeply below the high - cost capacity. Watch the support at 2830 - 3000 yuan [6]. - **Zinc**: In September, refinery maintenance will reduce output, and low inventory will drive a short - term rebound. However, the mid - term outlook is bearish, and consider shorting at 2.3 - 2.35 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Due to political unrest in Indonesia, nickel prices rebounded. With inventory declines, the short - term market is oscillating instead of bearish [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin recovered some losses. There is a shortage of concentrates, but watch inventory and capital changes. Hold short - term long positions above 27.1 million [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price declined, and the market was quiet. Inventory changes were mixed. The market is oscillating [12]. - **Polysilicon**: It oscillated below 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot price rose, but actual trading needs attention. The PS2511 price is expected to face pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply surplus will intensify in September, and the price may fall after the short - term rally. Watch the support at 8300 yuan/ton [14]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices rebounded. Rebar demand and production increased, while hot - rolled coil's decreased. Inventory is rising. The market is under pressure, and the decline may slow down. Watch the demand improvement and production restrictions [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight iron ore price rebounded. Global shipments increased, and domestic arrivals also rose. Demand may decline due to the parade. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. - **Coke**: The price oscillated widely. The first round of price cuts was partially implemented, and inventory decreased slightly. The price is under short - term pressure and is highly volatile [17]. - **Coking Coal**: Similar to coke, the price oscillated widely. Production increased slightly, and inventory decreased. It is under short - term pressure and volatile [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. Manganese ore prices may have limited downside. Observe the support at the previous low [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is rising, and demand is fair. Inventory is slightly decreasing [20]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: MSC announced empty - sailing plans for the Golden Week. The spot price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited. The market is expected to oscillate and be affected by other alliances' plans [21]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The futures price oscillated. Daily production decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate [25]. - **Methanol**: Coastal available supply is abundant, and inventory is rising. However, with downstream demand expected to increase, the market outlook is optimistic [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price rebounded. Supply increased, and demand was weak. The market may improve in Q3. Watch downstream demand and oil prices [27]. - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene cannot support styrene effectively. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene production inventory is controllable, but downstream acceptance is limited. Polyethylene demand is mixed, and polypropylene supply pressure is increasing [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory is rising. It may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda is supported by demand but may face supply pressure later, with a wide - range oscillation expected [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Prices oscillated at a low level. Demand is improving, but the actual supply - demand situation has limited improvement. Watch device operations, oil prices, and polyester load [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price oscillated around 4350 yuan/ton. Supply increased, and demand was stable but weakening. Watch new capacity and policy changes [32]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber supply - demand is stable, and it may be bullish in the medium - term if demand improves. Bottle - chip has over - capacity issues [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, the soybean meal market may oscillate in the short - term. It may be bullish in the medium - to long - term, but pay attention to supply in Q1 next year [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Prices rebounded after a short - term decline. Consider buying at low prices in the long - term, but manage risks [38]. - **Soybean (Domestic)**: The price rebounded as short - positions were reduced. Policy auctions increased supply, and new beans will be on the market soon. Watch the new - bean price [39]. - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak. Feed companies may build inventory at 2150 yuan/ton. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, the price may be weak at the bottom [40]. - **Pig**: Spot prices were mixed, and futures prices were weak. Supply may increase in September, but demand may also rise during holidays. Prices may face downward pressure [41]. - **Egg**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices rebounded. The industry is in capacity reduction, and consider long - positions in far - term contracts [42]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell due to better weather. Chinese cotton may oscillate, with support below and limited upside in the short - term. Consider buying on dips [43]. - **Sugar**: US sugar may face pressure, and the domestic market has limited upside. The price is expected to oscillate [44]. - **Apple**: The price oscillated at a high level. Early - maturing apples had high prices, but supply may be stable. Short - term price may rise, but be cautious in the long - term [45]. - **Wood**: The price oscillated. Supply may remain low, and inventory pressure is small. Wait and see for now [46]. - **Pulp**: The futures price rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Adopt a wait - and - see or range - trading strategy [47]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: The stock market oscillated, and futures contracts showed different trends. There are short - term macro uncertainties. Increase allocation in technology - growth sectors and also consider consumption and cyclical sectors [48]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures oscillated flat. US employment data and Fed's stance affect the market. Consider curve - steepening strategies in short - term hedging [49].