Report Industry Investment Rating - Index futures: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury bond futures: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending June 13, the stock index rose first and then fell, with a moderately increasing trading volume compared to the previous week, and the average daily trading volume was around 1.36 trillion yuan. Geopolitical conflicts and trade negotiations are still the main factors influencing the current market pattern [1]. - In terms of high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for index futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator 4 points, the valuation indicator 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator 8 points. For treasury bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator 9 points, and the market sentiment indicator 8 points [1]. - In terms of the term structure, the annualized basis after dividend adjustment of most contracts converged compared to the previous week, and the basis of the IH contract decreased overall and turned into a discount [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy did not change last week. In the long - term, financial data is mixed, with M1 and social financing showing better - than - expected performance, which contributes significantly to IC and IM. M2 and export data are weak, having less impact on index futures. In the short - term, the exchange rate shows low weekly volatility, the influence weight decreases, there is a lack of incremental funds, and the characteristics of stock game are significant [1]. - In terms of positions, the overall market risk preference declined in the second half of the week. The signal strength of IF and IH decreased significantly, but IC and IM still maintained a relatively high level, with the comprehensive signal showing a neutral oscillation. For treasury bond futures, the position factor shows a sign of marginal weakening after the rebound, but the current capital situation has significantly eased. The position reflects that institutions are still cautious about short - end allocation, and in the context of rising market sentiment, T is relatively strong in the cross - section signal [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - fundamental Medium - and High - Frequency Factor Scores - Economic kinetic energy: The blast furnace开工率 increased by 2.10%, with a current value of 45.12 and a historical quantile of 0.64. The index futures score was 6, and the treasury bond futures score was 0 [2]. - Inflation indicators: Some prices such as the vegetable basket product wholesale price index decreased, while others like the CITIC compound fertilizer index increased. The index futures and treasury bond futures scores for inflation indicators were both 7 [3]. - Liquidity: DR007 decreased by 1.98%, and GC001: weighted average increased by 7.98%. The index futures score for liquidity was 4 [4]. - Index valuation: The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) decreased by 0.01%, and the index futures score for valuation was 9 [5]. - Market sentiment: For index futures, the financing balance increased by 0.45%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange A - share trading volume increased by 32.92%. The index futures score was 8. For treasury bond futures, the trading volume of the Shanghai Treasury Bond Index increased by 19.07%, and the score was 8 [6][7]. Strategy Introduction - The variety pool includes index futures and treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital flow, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic data. The position is synthesized by considering institutional long and short positions [17]. Prediction Signals - As of last Friday, the short - term model, long - term model, and comprehensive signals for different contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM, T, TF) are provided, with specific values as shown in the table. The comprehensive signal strength is synthesized by weighting the signals of three independent models (0 - 1) [18]. Last Week's Situation - From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the signals of IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF main contracts were all 0 [20]. Recent Earnings Performance - The interval returns in the past 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and 3 years were 0.42%, 1.45%, 3.48%, 8.35%, and 25.16% respectively, and the corresponding maximum drawdowns were 0, 0.07%, 0.51%, 0.59%, and 3.27% [22]. Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factor uses the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel, and the signals are divided into three types: '1', '0', and '- 1'. In actual operation, a 1:1.8 ratio is used for the 10 - 5Y spread adjustment [23]. Market Quotes and Trading Signals - For TF and T main contracts from June 9 to June 13, 2025, the N - S model signals and trend regression model signals are provided in the table [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a one-star rating (★☆☆) for the CITIC Five-Style - Financial, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market [3]. Core Viewpoints - In the public fund market, the returns of equity and bond strategies showed slight differentiation in the past week. The energy and chemical ETF had a significant net value increase, while the non-ferrous metal ETF had a slight decline. The financial and cyclical styles of the CITIC Five-Style recorded positive returns, and the style timing model signals a preference for the financial style this week [3]. - Among the Barra factors, the residual volatility factor performed well in the past week, and the factor cross-sectional rotation speed increased slightly this week. The style timing strategy had a return of 0.44% last week, with an excess return of 0.66% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Market Returns - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the weekly returns of the Tonglian All-A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -0.41%, 0.17%, and 2.14% respectively [3]. - In the public fund market, equity strategies showed mixed performance, with index enhancement strategies slightly回调 and market neutral strategies under slight pressure. Bond strategies saw better performance in medium - and long - term pure bonds, and the convertible bond index weakened slightly. Commodity strategies had significant increases in the energy and chemical ETF and the soybean meal ETF [3]. CITIC Style Index - Last Friday, the returns of the CITIC Five-Style index were differentiated, with the financial and cyclical styles recording positive returns. The style rotation chart showed a slight decline in the consumer and stable styles in terms of relative strength, and the cyclical style strengthened marginally in terms of indicator momentum [3]. - Only growth-style funds outperformed the index in the public fund pool in the past week, with an excess return of 0.15%. Some financial-style funds shifted towards consumer and cyclical styles [3]. Barra Factors - In the past week, the residual volatility factor had a weekly excess return of 0.82%. The scale factor's excess return continued to compress, and the leverage and growth factors' returns strengthened slightly. The medium - and long - term momentum and growth factors had better performance in terms of win - rate [3]. - The factor cross - sectional rotation speed increased slightly this week and is currently in the medium - to low - percentile range of history [3]. Style Timing Model - According to the latest score of the style timing model, the financial style rebounded this week, while the consumer and cyclical styles declined, and the current signal favors the financial style. The style timing strategy's return last week was 0.44%, with an excess return of 0.66% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3].

Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC FUTURES gives a ★★★ rating to silicon iron, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity; a ☆☆☆ rating to rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and silicon manganese, suggesting a short-term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market, advising to wait and see [1] Core Views - The steel market has a weak domestic demand and is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with attention paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - The iron ore market has increasing supply pressure and short-term market uncertainty, and is expected to fluctuate [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, and their price rebound space is not overly optimistic under inventory pressure [4][5] - The silicon manganese market has limited improvement in fundamentals, with manganese ore prices likely to decline further [6] - The silicon iron market has acceptable overall demand and a slight decrease in inventory, with attention paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [7] Summary by Commodity Steel - Rebar's apparent demand and production both declined, and the inventory reduction slowed down; hot-rolled coil's demand, production, and inventory all decreased slightly; the pig iron output is still relatively high, and the negative feedback expectation is still fermenting; the market sentiment provides some support, but the pessimistic demand expectation restricts the upward space [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment volume has declined, the domestic arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has increased; the terminal demand is weak in the off-season, the steel mill profitability rate has decreased, and the pig iron output has changed little; the market has certain policy expectations, and the external geopolitical risk has increased [3] Coke - The pig iron output has declined slightly, and there is an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts; the coking profit has shrunk, and the daily coking output has declined; the overall inventory has decreased slightly, and the traders' purchasing willingness is still low; the price has rebounded due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices, but the rebound space is limited [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal mine output has declined slightly, and the spot auction market is still weak; the terminal inventory has decreased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory has increased slightly; the price has rebounded due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices, but the rebound space is limited [5] Silicon Manganese - Driven by rebar, the price has increased; a large steel mill in the north has a lower tender inquiry price; the inventory has decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly output has started to increase; the manganese ore price is under pressure, and the manganese mine's price support intention has increased [6] Silicon Iron - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price has increased; the pig iron output has decreased slightly; the export demand is stable, and the secondary demand is high; the supply has decreased, the market transaction level is average, and the inventory has decreased slightly [7]

| Million | > 国技期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月16日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，从目前中美谈判情况来看,虽然表态比较积极,但落实到具体措施仍有较多不确定性。棉花观货成交一 般,贸易商采购比较积极、基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱价格跟随原料价格有所上涨，但需求表现仍然一般。棉花现货价格坚挺,优 质资源逐渐减少,基差持续偏强,市场对于后期库存有偏紧的预期,截至5月底棉花商业库存为345.87万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★☆ [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★☆ [1] - **Palm Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Corn**: ★★☆ [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★★★ [1] - **Eggs**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall agricultural product market shows complex trends affected by multiple factors, including policies, weather, geopolitics, and supply - demand relationships. Different products have different characteristics and investment suggestions [2][3][4] - For most products, weather is a key factor affecting prices in the medium - term, especially from June to August [2][3] - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade still exist, and the market is currently treated as volatile [3] Summary by Product Beans 1 - Domestic soybean futures fluctuate strongly. Policy trading volume is low, and warehouse receipts decrease year - on - year. Short - term weather in Northeast China is beneficial to crops. The US EPA biodiesel policy is positive, which supports CBOT soybean prices. In the medium term, weather will drive price fluctuations both overseas and domestically [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The Israel - Iran war and the US EPA policy drive up US soybean and soybean meal prices. US weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth. Domestic soybean arrivals have increased since May, supply is loose, and soybean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The market is currently volatile, and attention should be paid to the oil end and future weather changes [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - In China, oil is strong and meal is weak, and the oil - meal ratio rises significantly. The US EPA biodiesel policy is positive for the long - term, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Geopolitics, biodiesel policies, and产区 weather are the main factors affecting rapeseed futures prices. Currently, multiple factors are positive, and a bullish strategy is maintained [6] Corn - The USDA June corn report is slightly positive. Affected by wheat policies, Dalian corn futures first rose and then eased. The price difference between wheat and corn is narrowing, and some feed enterprises are substituting. Corn futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures fluctuate narrowly, and spot prices rebound slightly. In the short term, there is downward pressure on prices, but in the medium term, policy support may provide price support [8] Eggs - Egg futures show a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term. Spot prices and near - term futures are rebounding. However, if the price rebounds too quickly, there is a risk of price fluctuations [9]

兔轰声明，国恐晓指南队公司是经中国正盆会州比诺辽边城晓经营机构，已具葡湘资投资海加业务资格，本报告仅供缅俄湖活有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的机构或个人宿户（以下随所"银房"），使用，本公司不会困俄的人收到本报告而明恩 为宿口 如痴b A共和羅矩隊都會一 兩次殖風荷物網、本標合羅手本公司认为可相应:公开德。但本公司不但正的葡萄座的海滩在宗ଙ出，泰因及糖卻是帶增香中，都是兩種緻的點，糖及及糖切皮 魔本公司于发布和舒盖坦的斯，本猴合所能的疑挡或明和的价值，价值可能会润成，在不同时隔，本公司可以出与标准所载牌、意见及糖尿管，每不应的味花治海潮出现空海流动物一幅 竞，本报告提供这些地址或超领班能的目的实际是为了都产使用力便，随速网站的内容不构成本相信的任何部分，客不南与行承担润达达越经网站成带用成功。本相告的领导体公司所有，本公司对本报告保障一切死利，除利异同书跟显示，西段 本报告中的所有材料放权的易审公司，未起本公司审先书面授权，本报告的任何确分为不得以任何力式制作任何形式的将风、昆印书友影剧局，或 �� 闯投期货 地产月月览: 2025年1-5月 黑金研投团队 2025/6/16 主要指标 5月单月增速 4月单月 ...

| E Kain K | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月16日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周国际油价受中东地缘风险迅速升温影响大幅上涨，布伦特08合约周度上涨12.8%，今日开盘后高开低走。周末 伊以双方延续互相袭击，以色列对伊朗最大天然气田南帕尔斯及油库进行袭击。尽管目前对能源基础设施的袭击局 限在伊朗国内供应链而非对外出口,但仍未缓和的地缘冲突及霍尔木兹海峡封锁威胁仍令市场对潜在的中东供应成 量进行定价。原油短期震荡偏强，尽管宏观及供需因素不支撑油价向上进一步突破，投资者仍可继 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for biomass diesel in the US shows an increasing trend, with stable demand in the early stage and growth in the later stage. From 2026 to 2027, compared with 2024, the demand will increase by 13.28% and 18.33% respectively, and the total raw material demand will increase by 232 and 320 million tons respectively [1][8] - The growth in demand for biomass diesel will lead to an increase in the use of North American rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and the North American market will be stronger than overseas markets [1][2] - The actual production performance needs to be monitored to dynamically evaluate the impact of RIN obligations set by the EPA for 2026 and 2027 [9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Biomass Diesel Obligation and Demand Trends - The biomass diesel obligation volumes in 2026 and 2027 are 5610 and 5860 million gallons respectively. Compared with the 4952 million gallons (domestic production + net imports) in 2024, they will increase by 13.28% and 18.33% respectively [8] - The total raw material demand in 2026 and 2027 will increase by 232 and 320 million tons respectively compared with 2024 [8] 2. Raw Material Sources and Substitution - In 2024, vegetable oils were mainly sourced from North American local raw materials, while animal fats and yellow greases also had raw materials from other regions. The total raw materials from other regions for beef tallow and yellow greases were 286 million tons [1][2] - Assuming that non - North American and imported raw materials are replaced by North American local raw materials, the demand in 2024 is estimated to be 319 million tons, accounting for nearly 40% of the edible demand [7] 3. Import and Export of Biomass Diesel and Raw Material Conversion - In 2024, the net imports of biodiesel + renewable diesel in the US converted into total raw materials were 33 million tons [5] - The net imports of biodiesel and renewable diesel in 2024 were 89 and - 55 million tons respectively, with a total net import of 33 million tons [5] 4. Consumption of Vegetable Oils - The industrial and edible consumption of rapeseed oil and soybean oil in the US from 2022/2023 to 2025/2026 is provided, and the total edible consumption of rapeseed oil and soybean oil is in the range of 8406 - 8669 million tons [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 9th to June 13th, globally, stocks fluctuated and diverged, while bonds and commodities rose. In China, stocks and bonds fluctuated, and commodities rose. Overall, commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of performance [3][6][19]. - The market is currently focused on the Middle - East situation, which may lead to increased volatility in related asset prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's June interest - rate meeting for clues on the US dollar's monetary policy [3][26]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance 3.1.1 Global Stock Market - The performance of major global stock markets diverged. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, and the VIX index rose. US stocks performed poorly [8]. - In the Asia - Pacific market, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region rose 0.49% in the past week, and the South Korea Composite Index had a significant weekly increase of 2.94%. In the European market, the MSCI Europe fell 0.27%. In the American market, the MSCI US fell 0.47% [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Global Bond Market - The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond dropped by 10BP to 4.41% this week. Globally, credit bonds > government bonds > high - yield bonds [15]. - The global bond index rose 0.81%, the global government bond index rose 0.78%, and the global credit bond index rose 0.90% [16]. 3.1.3 Global Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 1.07% this week due to higher - than - expected growth in US jobless claims and increased expectations of interest - rate cuts. Most major non - US currencies appreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range [16]. 3.1.4 Global Commodity Market - Geopolitical risks drove up international oil prices, and gold prices rose due to risk - aversion. The prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends [18]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance 3.2.1 Domestic Stock Market - A - share broad - based indices generally declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared to the previous week. Blue - chip stocks were relatively resilient. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.25% [20]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bond Market - The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 72.7 billion yuan. The bond market fluctuated strongly, with government bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds [22]. - The ChinaBond Aggregate Total Return Index rose 0.13%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.60% [23]. 3.2.3 Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market rose overall. The energy sector led the gains, while non - ferrous metals performed poorly. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose 2.14%, and the Nanhua Energy Index rose 9.63% [24]. 3.3 Outlook for Major Asset Prices - The market is short - term focused on the Middle - East situation, which may increase the price volatility of related major assets. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week for more clues on the US dollar's monetary policy [26].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bullish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bullish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term bullish and bearish trends are in a relatively balanced state, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The copper market is affected by the reduction of production targets at the Congo's KK mine, which will reduce the increase in copper concentrate this year. Short - term bears can hold positions after roll - over [2] - The aluminum market has a strong short - term upward trend, but there are concerns about negative feedback in the off - season. There may be opportunities to buy AD and short AL in the casting aluminum alloy market. Alumina futures are weak and should be shorted on rebounds [3] - The zinc market is under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and a supply - demand imbalance. High - level short positions should be held [4] - The nickel and stainless - steel market is bearish, and short positions should be followed [7] - The tin market is in a situation of tight supply of concentrates and weak supply - demand. Some short positions can be reduced or moved to far - month contracts [8] - The lithium carbonate market is in a short - term shock due to slowed price decline of Australian ore and increased production in the middle - stream [9] - The industrial silicon market has increased supply pressure and weak demand, and short positions can be lightly established [10] - The polysilicon market has increased inventory pressure and is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend [11] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, the afternoon session of Shanghai copper futures saw an expanded decline, with the main contract falling to 78,000 yuan. The spot copper price was 7,895 yuan, and the premium in Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. The G7 meeting over the weekend focused on US - allied tariff news. Ivanhoe lowered the production target of the Congo's KK mine to 37 - 420,000 tons, reducing the increase in copper concentrate by at least 100,000 tons. Short - term bears should hold positions after roll - over [2] Aluminum and Alumina - The squeeze - out market of Shanghai aluminum has intensified, with a large increase in the monthly spread. The strong inventory reduction in the aluminum market supports the near - month contracts, while concerns about seasonal demand decline and pre - export suppress the far - month contracts. After filling the previous gap, Shanghai aluminum has broken through. Attention should be paid to when the off - season negative feedback will be realized. The far - month contracts of casting aluminum alloy remain volatile. The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised by 100 yuan to 19,600 yuan. The supply of alumina has high elasticity after profit recovery, and the futures market remains weak. The price of Guinea ore is stable at $75, corresponding to a cost of about 3,000 yuan in Shanxi. It's not advisable to chase short positions due to a large futures discount [3] Zinc - Due to geopolitical tensions, the external market has weakened significantly. The spot import loss has narrowed, and low - priced imported ingots have impacted the domestic spot market. Coupled with the domestic supply - demand imbalance, Shanghai zinc has experienced a sharp decline. The weighted position has increased by 22,900 lots to 300,000 lots, and the settled funds have reached 5.833 billion yuan. The average price of SMM 0 zinc has dropped by 70 yuan to 22,240 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. As the delivery approaches, the exchange warehouse receipts have increased to 8,972 tons. High - level short positions should be held [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has declined slowly, and market trading is dull. The spot premium is stable, with the far - month contracts being stronger. The Philippine Congress has removed the ban on raw ore exports from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill. The loading progress of Philippine nickel mines has been delayed. The price of downstream NPI has stopped falling and stabilized, but domestic NPI smelters are still seriously in deficit. The high - nickel iron is priced at 953 yuan per nickel point, showing some resistance at low levels. Nickel iron inventory has increased, and the surplus is mainly concentrated in the stainless - steel segment. Technically, Shanghai nickel is under pressure, and short positions should be followed [7] Tin - Shanghai tin has fluctuated and declined. The spot tin price is 265,600 yuan, with a premium of 740 yuan to the 2506 contract as the delivery approaches. The supply of tin concentrates is expected to remain tight for a longer time. In the context of weak supply - demand, attention should be paid to the current price and wait for the social inventory data. Some short positions can be reduced or moved to far - month contracts [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate has shown narrow - range fluctuations, and market trading is average. The overall market inventory is stable at a high level. The inventory in the intermediate link has increased, but the downstream restocking and upstream destocking have not been sustained. The price decline of Australian ore has slowed down, and the production in the middle - stream has increased by 7% month - on - month. Technically, the decline of lithium carbonate futures has slowed down, and it is in a short - term shock [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures have declined with reduced positions, closing at 7,345 yuan/ton. The spot price has stabilized. After the resumption of production of large enterprises in Xinjiang, the subsequent production may increase, and the monthly supply pressure has increased. Although the downstream demand has improved marginally, the high - level social inventory pattern is difficult to change. Technically, the bullish sentiment has cooled down, and short positions can be lightly established [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures have declined with increased positions, closing at 33,695 yuan/ton. The spot price has been lowered, with the average price of SMM's N - type re - feed material at 36,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some polysilicon enterprises have resumed production, and the total production in June has increased to 101,000 tons, while the downstream silicon wafer production has been reduced by about 2GW. The inventory pressure has increased, and the market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend [11]