Group 1: Energy and Related Products - International oil prices rose significantly last week due to the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with the Brent 08 contract up 12.8% for the week. Oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. Investors can hold low - cost call options and consider short positions after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [1] - Gold prices were supported by the Israel - Iran military confrontation. The market is awaiting the Fed's meeting guidance this week. After gold returned to a historical high, caution is advised [2] - Geopolitical conflicts led to the strengthening of oil prices, and domestic oil product futures followed suit. High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to weaken, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be under pressure [20] - Due to the impact of geopolitical risks, the price of asphalt followed the rise of crude oil but underperformed, and the crack spread fell sharply. The fundamentals support de - stocking, but the crack spread is under obvious pressure [21] - Geopolitical risks have further increased. The domestic LPG market is relatively more relaxed than the crude oil market. The market is in a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to the actual impact of Middle East exports [22] Group 2: Base Metals - Last week, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, with inventories decreasing to 114,400 tons. This week, attention should be paid to the G7 meeting. Short - position holders should roll over to the 2508 contract [3] - The squeeze - out market of Shanghai aluminum has fermented, and the spread between months has widened significantly. The strong de - stocking in the aluminum market supports the strength of the near - month contract, while concerns about seasonal weakening of demand and pre - export suppress the performance of the far - month contract [4] - The far - month contract of cast aluminum alloy maintained a shock, and the spread structure was similar to that of Shanghai aluminum. During the off - season, there is still a possibility of the spread with Shanghai aluminum narrowing. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying ADC and shorting AL [5] - The northern spot price of alumina fell below 3,200 yuan last week. After the industry profit was repaired, the supply elasticity was large. Futures are recommended to be shorted on rebounds [6] - The fundamentals of zinc are expected to shift to increased supply and weak demand. Although the short - term low inventory provides some support, the market is still dominated by short - sellers [7] - The price of lead in Shanghai is under pressure at the 17,000 - yuan integer level. The slow resumption of recycled refined lead production supports the lead price. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8] - The price of nickel in Shanghai declined, and the market trading was dull. The spot premium was stable, and the far - month structure was relatively strong. Technically, short - selling should be followed [9] - Last Friday, LME tin rebounded and broke through the MA60 moving average, with inventories decreasing to 2,260 tons. The domestic tin market may shift to the export direction [10] Group 3: Chemical Products - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated narrowly. The overall market inventory was stable at a high level. The decline of the futures price slowed down, and it is expected to be in a short - term shock [11] - The industrial silicon futures decreased in price with reduced positions. The spot price tended to be stable. The supply pressure increased month - on - month, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [12] - The PVC market continues to have high supply and weak demand, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level. The price of caustic soda fell below the previous low, and the futures price is under pressure at a high level [27] - The prices of PX and PTA loads continued to rise, while the weaving and dyeing start - up rate decreased, and terminal orders weakened. PTA's inventory accumulation pressure was slightly relieved [28] - The开工 of ethylene glycol increased, and the port inventory accumulated. The supply - demand relationship weakened slightly, and attention should be paid to the energy market [30] Group 4: Ferrous Metals and Related Products - On Friday night, steel prices strengthened. The apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, and the inventory de - stocking slowed down. The demand and production of hot - rolled coils both declined slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The market is expected to be in a short - term shock [13] - The iron ore market was volatile last week. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to be in a short - term shock [14] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coke rose last night. There is an expectation of a fourth round of price cuts, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [15] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of coking coal rose last night. The total inventory increased slightly, and the rebound space is not overly optimistic [16] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of silicon - manganese rose last Friday. The price of manganese ore is expected to decline further, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [17] - Affected by geopolitical tensions, the price of ferrosilicon rose last Friday. The supply decreased, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [18] Group 5: Agricultural Products - The USDA's June soybean supply - demand report was neutral. Affected by the Israel - Iran war, the price of US soybeans rose. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the market is expected to be in a shock [34] - The US EPA's proposed RFS policy is bullish for the soybean and related oil markets. The bottom of the US soybean and soybean oil prices is relatively firm, but there is an upward risk [35] - Affected by the US biodiesel policy and产区 weather, the prices of Canadian canola and canola oil rose. The market strategy remains bullish [36] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded. The supply of imported soybeans is relatively loose, but attention should be paid to the impact of weather on prices [37] - The USDA's June corn report was slightly bullish. Affected by the wheat policy, the corn futures price is expected to be in a shock [38] - The price of live pigs futures rebounded on Friday. In the short term, the spot price is under downward pressure, while in the medium term, the far - end price has support [39] - The egg futures price rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pre - release of demand when the price is at a low level, but there is still a risk of price fluctuations [40] - The price of US cotton was volatile. The domestic cotton market was generally trading, and the market sentiment was not high. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [41] - The price of US sugar was in a shock. The supply of Brazilian sugar is expected to be relatively bearish. The domestic sugar market has less pressure, and the price is expected to be in a shock [42] - The price of apples was in a shock. The market demand declined, and the trading focus shifted to the new - season production estimate [43] Group 6: Others - The freight index of the container shipping (European line) was affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict. The impact on the European line market is limited. After the short - term sentiment fades, the far - month off - season is expected to return to a weak pattern [19] - The price of wood futures was weak. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [43] - The price of pulp futures was in a shock. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and consider buying on significant pullbacks [44] - The A - share market declined unilaterally, and the futures index contracts all fell. The market risk preference was suppressed by geopolitical and trade uncertainties [45] - The bond market was bullish. The market expects the central bank to inject liquidity this month, and the bullish trend is expected to continue [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The June USDA cotton monthly report is bullish, but the new - year global supply remains relatively loose, and international cotton prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels. The current U.S. cotton is in the early growth stage with normal weather, and the subsequent weather conditions need to be continuously monitored. The performance of U.S. cotton demand is still weak, especially the new - year signing is still cautious, and the impact of Sino - U.S. relations on the new - year demand for U.S. cotton is significant [1][2] Summary by Related Content 2025/26 Annual Supply - Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: Global cotton production in 25/26 decreased by 178,000 tons month - on - month. China's production increased by 218,000 tons to 6.532 million tons, while India's production decreased by 217,000 tons, the U.S. decreased by 109,000 tons, and Pakistan decreased by 65,000 tons. After the reduction in U.S. cotton production, it has reached a multi - year low. The harvested area was adjusted from 8.37 million acres to 8.19 million acres, and the yield per acre dropped from 832 pounds/acre to 820 pounds/acre [1] - **Consumption**: Global consumption in 25/26 decreased by 70,000 tons month - on - month. China's consumption remained unchanged, while India decreased by 109,000 tons, Bangladesh decreased by 22,000 tons, and Turkey decreased by 44,000 tons. Overall, global consumption is stable, but there are still many global trade conflicts [1] - **Imports**: Global cotton imports in 25/26 decreased by 1,000 tons month - on - month. Bangladesh, China, and Turkey reduced their imports by 22,000 tons, 109,000 tons, and 44,000 tons respectively, while Pakistan increased its imports by 65,000 tons. China ranks third in annual imports, lower than Bangladesh and Vietnam [2] - **Exports**: Brazil's exports increased by 65,000 tons, Australia's exports increased by 22,000 tons, and India's exports decreased by 109,000 tons [2] - **Ending Stocks**: Global ending stocks in 25/26 decreased by 344,000 tons month - on - month. China's ending stocks remained unchanged, while India, the U.S., Brazil, and Australia had changes of - 65,000 tons, - 196,000 tons, - 87,000 tons, and + 22,000 tons respectively. After the adjustment in the June report, the 25/26 global ending stocks are 107,000 tons lower than the 24/25 level [2] Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending stocks of major cotton - producing and consuming countries from 2021/22 to 2025/26 - 6 months, as well as the monthly and annual changes [4]

Report Overview - There is no overall investment rating for the industry provided in the report [1] - The core view of the report is that due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, international oil prices have risen significantly, affecting the prices of various chemical products. Each chemical product has its own supply - demand fundamentals, and price trends vary. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as oil prices, production and shipment rhythms, and downstream demand [2][3][4] Each Chemical Product Summary Methanol - Middle - East geopolitical conflicts led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, increasing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. The market expects future coastal imports to be far lower than expected, causing the methanol futures to hit the daily limit. Fundamentally, the arrival volume of imported methanol is high, the operating rate of coastal olefin plants has declined slightly, and port inventories have increased significantly. Domestic supply remains sufficient, and producer inventories have increased slightly. The volatility of methanol prices is expected to increase [2] Urea - The urea futures stopped falling, and the spot market improved. Agricultural purchases are scattered, and the production of high - nitrogen fertilizers for compound fertilizers in summer is ending. Demand support is insufficient, and producer inventories have increased significantly. Although exports are gradually opening up, the inspection process is slow, and some goods are locked, with port inventories remaining flat. Supply remains sufficient, and short - term downstream industrial and agricultural demand is weak. The price is weak in the short term but may stabilize and rebound as rainfall increases in major regions [3] Polyolefins - The main futures contracts of polyolefins rose significantly. The military conflict between Israel and Iran escalated the Middle - East geopolitical situation, increasing concerns about oil supply and causing a sharp rise in international oil prices, which directly drove up the prices of downstream products in the industrial chain. It is recommended to pay attention to the release of macro - risks in the future [4] Styrene - The main futures contract of styrene rose significantly. The sharp rise in international oil prices due to Middle - East geopolitical risks strengthened the cost support for styrene. Fundamentally, supply is expected to increase as multiple plants restart, and the operating rates of downstream "3S" plants are also expected to increase [5] Polyester - Geopolitical conflicts led to a sharp rise in oil prices, causing PX and PTA to rise in the morning but then partially giving back gains. The weekly loads of PX and PTA increased, while the operating rates of terminal weaving and dyeing decreased, and terminal orders weakened. The sales of filament yarns increased significantly, and enterprises are expected to maintain their operating rates after destocking. In the second half of the year, with the expectation of PTA inventory accumulation, holding far - month reverse spreads is recommended. PX has no prominent supply - demand contradictions but may have periodic mismatches, and its absolute price is mainly driven by oil prices. Ethylene glycol rebounded due to the boost of oil prices, with increased weekly operation, port inventory accumulation, and stable arrival volume. The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening. Short - fiber and bottle - grade chips rose and then moderately declined, with the overall price center rising. The short - fiber 7 - 8 spread fluctuated sharply. The industry's operating rate has declined from the high point in the first half of the year, and inventories have continuously decreased. Bottle - grade chips may face inventory accumulation pressure after the peak order season [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC closed higher. The fundamental situation of high supply and weak demand continues. In June, with fewer maintenance and new production, supply pressure is high. Exports have entered the off - season, domestic demand is weak, and there is inventory pressure. Although the price of calcium carbide has risen, chlor - alkali integration still has profits, and cost support is weak. The futures price may fluctuate at a low level. Caustic soda fell below the previous low. Major alumina plants in Shandong reduced their quotes. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is good, and with less maintenance and new production capacity release in June, supply is at a high level. Non - aluminum demand is average, and there is resistance to high prices. Liquid caustic soda inventories are high, and the futures price is under pressure at a high level [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass closed lower. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, with high inventory pressure. Recently, cold repairs and ignitions coexist, and production capacity fluctuates slightly. Pay attention to the fuel switch of production lines in Shahe. Processing orders are weak. During the rainy season and with high inventories, the driving force is still weak. Soda ash continues to have high supply and high inventory, and the cost has decreased, causing the futures price to reach a new low [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The report presents a weekly overview of futures price and volume data for various commodity categories, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, livestock products, and financial futures. It shows the week - closing prices, weekly price changes, 20 - day annualized volatilities, volatility changes, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes of different futures varieties [2][4]. - Some varieties have significant price changes, such as crude oil with a 13.69% weekly increase and soda ash with a 4.62% weekly decrease. Volatility changes also vary widely among different commodities [2]. - Certain varieties have seen notable increases in positions, including asphalt, stainless steel, fuel oil, soybeans No.1, and eggs. And gold, crude oil, aluminum, zinc, and asphalt have attracted more capital attention [15][16]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Gold closed at 794.36 with a 1.42% weekly increase, 15.95% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 22.02% volatility change. Silver closed at 8,791.00 with a - 0.67% weekly decrease, 21.21% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 7.97% volatility change [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper closed at 78,010.00 with a - 1.17% weekly decrease, 8.11% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 17.27% volatility change. Nickel closed at 119,920.00 with a - 1.87% weekly decrease, 12.09% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 23.14% volatility change. Aluminum closed at 20,440.00 with a 1.84% weekly increase, 9.23% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 13.37% volatility change [2]. Black Metals - Iron ore closed at 703.00 with a - 0.64% weekly decrease, 13.93% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 34.02% volatility change. Coke closed at 1,349.50 with a - 0.07% weekly decrease, 27.00% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 6.66% volatility change [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil closed at 529.90 with a 13.69% weekly increase, 39.30% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 9.66% volatility change. Fuel oil closed at 3,205.00 with a 12.14% weekly increase, 36.15% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 26.73% volatility change [2]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans No.1 closed at 4,241.00 with a 3.39% weekly increase, 9.34% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a 38.12% volatility change. Corn closed at 2,378.00 with a 1.62% weekly increase, 6.47% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 3.65% volatility change [2]. Livestock Products - Live pigs closed at 13,790.00 with a 2.45% weekly increase, 8.05% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 11.90% volatility change [3]. Financial Futures - IC closed at 5,729.00 with a 0.06% weekly increase, 11.41% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 13.26% volatility change. IF closed at 3,856.40 with a 0.03% weekly increase, 8.24% 20 - day annualized volatility, and a - 16.38% volatility change [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★, with a relatively more bullish indication [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term equilibrium state with poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks from the Israel - Iran conflict have caused a sharp rise in crude oil futures, and there is still room for trading geopolitical risks.虚值原油看涨期权 have hedging value, and short positions in futures can be considered after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [2] - In the context of the continuous fermentation of geopolitical conflicts, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil follow the upward trend of oil prices, but their fundamentals face challenges such as weak demand and increased supply [2] - The price of asphalt follows the rise of crude oil but lags behind, and its cracking spread has dropped significantly. There are still fundamental support factors, and investment opportunities can be considered after the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil is removed [3] - The price of LPG has a limited follow - up increase due to its high price - to - value ratio and loose fundamentals. It may fall back if there is no substantial impact on Middle - East exports, and the market will fluctuate widely [4] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - Recently, crude oil futures have soared, with the Brent 08 contract rising 4.3% in the Asian session and the SC07 contract rising 6.9% intraday. The risk of a large - scale conflict in the Middle East has materialized. Referring to the extreme - case pricing when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the upward target of the Brent near - month contract is around $80/barrel [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical conflicts have led to a continuous rise in oil prices, and the domestic fuel oil futures have followed suit, with the increase of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) greater than that of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU). The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep - processing is still relatively low, and the supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, while the demand is insufficient [2] Asphalt - The price of asphalt has followed the rise of crude oil but lags behind, and its cracking spread has fallen below the previous low. The subsequent increase in production by local refineries lacks momentum, and the increase in asphalt production by major refineries is expected to be limited. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased, and the terminal demand is expected to be boosted. The de - stocking trend is expected to continue [3] LPG - The price of LPG has a limited follow - up increase due to its high price - to - value ratio and loose fundamentals. If there is no substantial impact on Middle - East exports, it may fall back. The domestic chemical demand has increased, but the subsequent growth space is limited, and the inventory of terminals and refineries has increased. The market will fluctuate widely [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The overall demand in the steel industry is weak, with poor improvement in infrastructure and lack of sustainability in real - estate sales recovery. The short - term trend is mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - Iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon are all affected by geopolitical tensions, with short - term price fluctuations. The supply of iron ore is under increasing pressure, and the risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain still exists. The price rebound space of coke and coking coal is limited due to inventory pressure. Silicomanganese is recommended to short on rallies, and the demand for ferrosilicon is generally okay [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Thread: The apparent demand continues to decline, production drops synchronously, and the de - stocking pace slows down [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Both demand and production decline slightly, and inventory continues to accumulate [2] - Overall: The demand is weak, the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain is fermented repeatedly, and the short - term trend is mainly volatile [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are relatively strong, domestic arrivals increase, and port inventories stop falling and start to increase [3] - Demand: Terminal demand weakens in the off - season, iron - water production changes little, and the risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain still exists [3] - Overall: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - Supply: Production decreases slightly, and inventory decreases slightly [4] - Demand: Downstream iron - water production remains stable above 241 [4] - Overall: The price rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure [4] Coking Coal - Supply: Mine production decreases slightly, and total inventory increases slightly [6] - Demand: Downstream iron - water production remains stable above 241 [6] - Overall: The price rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure [6] Silicomanganese - Supply: Production starts to recover, and manganese ore inventory accumulates [7] - Demand: Iron - water production declines slightly [7] - Overall: The price is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies [7] Ferrosilicon - Supply: Supply continues to decline [8] - Demand: Export demand is stable, and secondary demand remains high [8] - Overall: The demand is generally okay, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of de - stocking [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: ★☆☆ [1] - **豆粕**: ★★★ [1] - **豆油**: ★★★ [1] - **棕榈油**: ★★★ [1] - **菜粕**: ★☆☆ [1] - **菜油**: ★☆☆ [1] - **玉米**: ★☆☆ [1] - **生猪**: ★★★ [1] - **鸡蛋**: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products including soybeans, corn, and livestock, considering factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policy. Different products face various market situations, and the report provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][7] Summary by Category 1. Soybeans - **Domestic Soybeans**: The domestic soybean main contract rebounded significantly. The tension in the Middle East and potential weather risks in the US may affect prices. Weather is expected to be the main factor driving price fluctuations during the growing season [2] - **Imported Soybeans**: There are risks of high temperature and low precipitation in the US soybean - growing months of July - August. With the tightened supply - demand balance of US soybeans, attention should be paid to weather - related price rebounds [2][6] 2. Soybean & Bean Meal - The USDA June soybean report was neutral. Dalian bean meal has been volatile recently. Although domestic soybean supply is increasing, the cost of imported Brazilian soybeans has risen, and the market is expected to be volatile [3] 3. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed meal had small fluctuations, and rapeseed oil prices rose. The USDA's adjustment to rapeseed supply - demand data had little impact. The prices of Canadian rapeseed and domestic rapeseed products are expected to have short - term upward space [4] 4. Corn - The USDA June report was neutral - positive for US new - season corn. Corn futures have been volatile. The price was affected by the wheat - corn substitution and future price differentials between them [7] 5. Livestock - **Pigs**: The hog futures rebounded, and the spot price was stable. In the short term, the spot price has downward pressure, while in the medium term, policy support may boost the far - end price [8] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded after a large - scale reduction in positions. The spot price continued to decline, and attention should be paid to potential demand increases when prices are low [9] 6. Vegetable Oils - **Palm Oil**: The price rose significantly but showed a trend of rising and then falling. The USDA report was neutral. The price is expected to be range - bound, with risks of suppression by US soybean weather speculation [6] - **Soybean Oil**: No specific independent analysis in the report, considered together with soybeans and related to the overall soybean market situation [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The mid - term bottom of thermal coal is emerging [3][4]. - For crude oil, both the optimistic expectations in China and the US and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, and it is questioned whether the soaring market can continue [3][8]. - For asphalt, it has encountered a decline after reaching a five - year high, and it is questioned whether the cracking trend has reversed [3][67]. Summary by Related Catalogs Thermal Coal - The premium of high - calorie coal at Bohai Rim ports is presented, showing the price trends of Mongolian coal with different calorific values [5]. Crude Oil Demand - side Outlook - The results of the London talks are limited, and there are still uncertainties in the reciprocal tariffs. The China - US container ship departure volume and shipping freight rates are affected by trade policies [12][13]. - A series of trade events have occurred, including the US - UK trade agreement on May 8, the Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement on May 12, the Sino - US presidential phone call consensus on June 5, and the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism on June 9 - 10. Attention should be paid to the trade negotiation progress before the expiration of the US tariff exemptions for most countries on July 8 and the expiration of the 24% reciprocal tariff exemption between China and the US in mid - August [14]. - The 4 - week average year - on - year growth rate of US refined oil apparent demand is +0.5%, with gasoline at - 2.5%, diesel at - 5.9%, and jet fuel at +1.3%. The latest ground congestion index is up 0.1% year - on - year [23][25]. - The refining profits of European and American refineries are under pressure again, and the subsequent start - up demand is more seasonally supported [26]. Geopolitical Risks - There are continuous geopolitical events in the Middle East, such as the US - UK joint air strike on the Houthi in January, the Russian terminal being attacked by Ukrainian drones in January, the Iranian consulate in Syria being attacked in April, the Iranian attack on Israel in April, and the Israeli retaliatory air strike on Iran in April. The Brent crude oil price has risen significantly due to these events [30][32][33]. - The Strait of Hormuz is an important oil transportation channel. In 2023 H1, its crude oil and condensate transportation volume was 14.7 million barrels per day, and the refined oil transportation volume was 5.8 million barrels per day. Threats to block it can cause significant fluctuations in oil prices [35]. Supply - side Situation - Some oil tankers are under sanctions, which affects the transportation of oil. The production and export of Iranian and Venezuelan crude oil are also affected by various factors [37]. - The number of US non - Gulf of Mexico oil rigs and the capital expenditure plans of US shale oil listed companies are related to oil production [43][44]. - The production and production targets of OPEC + countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan, are presented [48][51][52][53]. Price and Inventory - The futures settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil are affected by various factors such as the financial crisis, OPEC's production decisions, and geopolitical events [55]. - The inventory data of crude oil and refined oil, including on - land commercial inventory, floating storage inventory, and total inventory, are provided [59][62]. - The global demand for OPEC + crude oil supply, the supply - demand gap, and the global oil inventory are analyzed [64]. Asphalt Cracking Situation - In March 2025, it was recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on BU cracking on pullbacks. After late May, the cracking has declined from the high level, but the upward elasticity of the cracking spread remains unchanged due to low supply, low inventory, and other factors. The sudden rise in oil prices since June 11 has caused the BU cracking to decline passively [71]. Supply - side Constraints - The year - on - year changes in asphalt production of different regions and enterprises in 2025 are presented. Local refineries have problems with non - quota raw materials and rely on crude oil quotas. The import of Venezuelan oil by local refineries in 2025 has accelerated the consumption of crude oil quotas, and the production and export of Venezuelan crude oil are still restricted [72][73][78]. Demand - side Situation - The road demand for asphalt has limited new demand growth, but the maintenance demand is rising. The consumption of asphalt for road maintenance is gradually catching up with that for new road construction. In the neutral scenario, the asphalt demand for roads in 2025 is expected to be 21.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8% [87][90]. - The shipment of 54 sample asphalt refineries has been improving since late April, and the year - on - year growth has turned positive since the end of May. Leading indicators such as the issuance of special bonds and the domestic sales of road rollers are positive, and Q3 is a key observation window for asphalt demand [94]. Inventory Situation - The asphalt inventory is at a relatively low level, and the balance sheet is expected to continue the de - stocking trend in the third quarter [95][97].

| | | | 国投期货 Million | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月13日 | | 棉花, | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 期价偏弱震荡。现货方面，主流报价持稳。需求进入淡季，虽然目前冷库苹果库存较低，但是时令水果上市量增加，天气也较 为炎热,苹果需求有所下降,现货价格涨势放缓。从交易逻辑来看,市场的交易重心转向新季度的估产。今年西部产区受到寒 潮和花期大风的影响，坐果率和苹果质量可能会受到一些影响。不过，4月份寒潮过程中低温对产量 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年06月13日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价大幅震荡，布伦特08合约收跌0.62%。在周日美伊在阿曼的第六轮核谈之前，双方仍 在进行极限心理战博弈,周四夜间以色列对伊朗发动先发制人的空袭,中东地区大规模冲突风险仍 对油价构成支撑。原油短期震荡偏强，尽管宏观及供需因素不支撑油价向上进一步突破，投资者仍 可买入低成本看涨期权应对极端地缘风险,待地缘局势明朗后再布局高位空单。 【责金属】 隔夜美国公布5月PP1年率录得2.6%符合预期，月率0.1%略不及预期；周度初请失业金人数24.8万人 为2024年10月5日当周以来新高，整体数据偏有利于降息方向，不过市场预期美联储短期内仍将保 持观望姿态。中东地缘冲突再起,媒体报道以色列开始对伊朗采取军事行动。黄金震荡中维持回调 买入思路,白银已打开上方空间。 【铜】 隔夜铜价震荡，沪铜夜盘收阴。艾芬豪下调刚果金kk矿产量目标至37-42万吨，年初为增产至55万 吨,去年铜产量43万吨。这将缩减今年铜精矿增量至少10万吨级。美国5月PPI增速同样不及预期, 市场预计联储9月降息概率大。昨日国内现铜79075元,周内社 ...