| 112 | > 国技期货 | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月12日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | なな☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 文文☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价大涨，SC07合约日内上涨3.01%。中美就落实两国元首通话共识及日内瓦会谈共识达成框架，目前来看 本轮磋商结果聚焦在双方取消5月以来的部分出口管制,而将于8月中旬豁免到期的24%对等关税仍有待谈判。特朗普 表示对达成伊核协议的信心减弱。凌晨美国方面通知美国在中东人员部分撤离,中东地缘风险急剧升温。原油对极 端供应冲击情景迅速定价。上周EIA原油库存超预期下降364. 4万桶，亦对原油偏强走势构成支撑。原油短期 ...

41fafe4abd3f86be5893875568d4f219.png (2952×10940) 国投期货 有 色 制 造 业 进 出 口 数 据 2025/6/12 09:04 file://lC://Lsers/sunff/Documents/xwechat_files/wxid_epmedr48839421_ca17/temp/2025-06/RWTemp/9e20f478899dc29eb19741386f9343c8/41faf... 1/1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: No clear rating [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear multi/short trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short fiber: No clear rating [1] - Bottle chips: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: No clear rating [1] - Caustic soda: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a long/short trend, with a driving force for price increase/decrease but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Glass: No clear rating [1] - Soda ash: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows diverse trends, with some products facing supply - demand imbalances, price fluctuations, and inventory changes [2][3][4] - Different factors such as import volume, downstream demand, policy, and production capacity affect the prices and market trends of various chemical products [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The intraday methanol futures opened high and closed low. High import volume, a slight decline in coastal olefin plant operating rates, and large port inventory accumulation. Domestic supply is sufficient, with increased loads in acetic acid and hydrocarbon plants and slightly more producer inventories. Policy may delay port inventory accumulation, and short - term prices will range - bound [2] Urea - Urea futures continued to decline. Agricultural demand has partially started but is scattered, and the production of compound fertilizer's summer high - nitrogen fertilizer is ending. Producers' inventory is increasing significantly, and although exports are gradually liberalized, the inspection process is slow. With sufficient supply and weak downstream demand, prices remain weak [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures contracts fluctuated narrowly. For polyethylene, weak fundamentals and lower - than - expected demand led to a lackluster market. For polypropylene, new device startups and restarted maintenance devices increased supply pressure, and high - temperature weather reduced downstream demand [4] Styrene - Styrene futures fluctuated narrowly. The cost of pure benzene has limited driving force, and the supply is expected to increase with device restarts, while downstream "Three S" operations are also expected to improve [5] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rose in the morning due to oil prices but then fell back. The industry shows increased upstream production and weakened demand, with PTA inventory accumulation expected. Ethylene glycol's supply - demand situation is weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Short - fiber prices followed raw materials, and bottle chips may face inventory pressure and potential production cuts [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC fluctuated narrowly. Supply pressure increased in June, exports entered the off - season, and domestic demand was weak, with potential inventory accumulation. Caustic soda prices fell, with high supply due to less maintenance and new capacity, and high - pressure inventory [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass inventory is high, and prices are weak. Cold repairs and startups coexist, and orders are weak. Soda ash continues to accumulate inventory, with high supply and falling costs. Supply pressure remains, and a high - level short - selling strategy is recommended [8]

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月12日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 天然橡胶 | な女女 | | | 20号胶 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | F0285606 Z0003096 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (苹果) 期价偏弱震荡。现货方面，主流报价持稳。需求进入谈季，虽然目前冷库苹果库存较低，但是时令水果上市量增加，天气也较 为炎热,苹果需求有所下降,现货价格涨势放缓。从交易逻辑来看,市场的交易重心转向新季度的估产。今年西部产区受到寒 潮和花期大风的影响，坐果率和苹果质量可能会受到一些影响。不过，4月份寒潮过程中低温对产量的影响不大，主要增加了果 锈的风险。 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Soybeans (including domestic and imported): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The soy - related market is influenced by factors such as trade agreements, weather, and supply - demand balance. The price trend is complex and requires attention to weather changes from June to August [2][3][6]. - The domestic rapeseed market is supported by factors like the weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, Sino - Canadian trade relations, and the peak consumption season of aquatic feed, with a short - term bullish outlook [4]. - The palm oil price is affected by factors such as market position reduction, weather in the US soybean - producing areas, and the production cycle, with a need to guard against the impact of US soybean weather speculation [6]. - The corn market is affected by factors such as the wheat purchase plan and trade agreements, showing a short - term volatile trend [7]. - The live pig market has short - term downward pressure on spot prices and medium - term support for far - end prices due to policy adjustments [8]. - The egg market is in a downward trend, with the current price not reaching the cyclical bottom, and attention should be paid to multiple influencing factors [9]. Summary by Categories Soybeans - Domestic soybean prices are affected by import prices and weather. The key months of 7 - 8 during the growth period face risks of high temperature and low precipitation, and weather is expected to be the main driver of price fluctuations [2]. - After the Sino - US London trade meeting, the soybean meal market is in a wide - range shock. The supply of domestic soybeans is relatively abundant, but the cost of importing Brazilian soybeans has increased, and the market should be treated as volatile, with attention to weather - driven price increases from June to August [3]. Rapeseed - The rapeseed market is affected by the short - term positive signals of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, and Sino - Canadian trade relations. Coupled with the peak consumption season of aquatic feed, the domestic rapeseed futures price has short - term support, and the strategy is bullish [4]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - The palm oil price has stabilized. The European Meteorological Center's forecast shows that the US soybean - producing areas may face high temperature and low precipitation in 7 - 8. Palm oil is in the production - increasing period in the second and third quarters, and price fluctuations are expected, with a need to guard against the impact of US soybean weather speculation [6]. Corn - The launch of the wheat minimum purchase price plan in Henan has driven the bullish sentiment of corn. After the continuous rise of corn futures, the trend has eased. The future wheat - corn price difference may widen, and the corn futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Live Pigs - The live pig futures rebounded, and the spot price was slightly adjusted. In the short term, there is downward pressure on the spot price due to the accelerated slaughter of group farms. In the medium term, policy adjustments will reduce the long - term supply pressure and support the far - end price [8]. Eggs - The egg futures continued to increase positions and hit new lows, and the spot price continued to decline in most areas. The current egg price has not reached the cyclical bottom, and attention should be paid to factors such as production capacity changes, chicken culling sentiment, and the rainy season [9].

隔夜美国5月CPI年率录得2.4%,核心CPI录得2.8%，同比环比均低于预期，特朗普再次呼吁降息,美元回 落,金价小幅上涨。但中美会谈达成共识框架消息令市场风险偏好继续向好限制金价涨幅。各方关税谈判将 继续主导市场,俄乌以及中东等地缘局势持续紧张,金价震荡中维持回调买入思路,白银破位后打开上方空 间。今晚关注美国PPI和周度初请失业金人数。 ★美国5月CPI环比上涨0.1%,不及预期的0.2%,4月增幅为0.2%;CPI同比上涨2.4%,符合预期,4月为 2.3%; 扣除波动较大的食品和能源核心CPI环比0.1%，不及预期的0.2%,较4月的0.2%有所放缓；同比2.8%, 不及预期的2.9%，4月为2.8%，保持在2021年3月以来的最低水平。 ★中东局势—1特朗普对达成伊核协议信心减弱。②伊朗防长:如果核谈判失败并与美国发生冲突,伊朗将 打击该地区的美军基地。③美方授权美军家属可自愿撤离中东,缩减在伊拉克的美国使团规模。④据悉伊美 周末举行第六轮核谈判举行的可能性越来越小。 ★关税—()欧盟希望贸易谈判时间延长至特朗普设定暂缓期限之后。②贝森特:只要在谈判中表现出"城 意",特朗普政府愿意将目前的90天 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and ferrosilicon are rated with white stars, indicating that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Silicomanganese is rated with three red stars, representing a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall steel market is weak, with demand expectations remaining pessimistic and limited upward space for the market [2] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with supply pressure increasing and negative feedback risks in the mid - term [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal are oscillating downward, but have rebounded due to factors such as downstream ironwater levels and tariff impacts [4][6] - The price of silicomanganese is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [7] - The price of ferrosilicon is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel continued to fall, production declined synchronously, and the inventory reduction slowed. The demand and production of hot - rolled coil slightly declined, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Ironwater production is gradually falling but remains relatively high, and the negative feedback expectation persists. The improvement in the infrastructure sector is limited, real - estate sales lack sustainable recovery, and new construction and construction continue to decline significantly. In May, automobile production and sales maintained a high growth rate, and the manufacturing industry still has resilience. Market sentiment is volatile, the rebound momentum of the futures market is insufficient, and pessimistic demand expectations restrict the upward space [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures prices oscillated. On the supply side, global shipments are relatively strong for the same period, with seasonal growth potential in the future. The domestic arrival volume has increased and is expected to remain high in the short term, and port inventories are expected to stop falling and rise, increasing supply pressure. On the demand side, terminal demand weakens in the off - season. Steel mills have a good profit rate and lack the motivation for active production cuts. The short - term production cut space for ironwater is relatively limited, and there are still negative feedback risks in the mid - term. Sino - US talks have improved market sentiment, but there are still uncertainties in foreign trade. It is expected that iron ore will fluctuate in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices oscillated downward. Ironwater production slightly declined, but coking daily production remains at a relatively high level this year due to existing coking profits. The overall coke inventory slightly increased, and traders had no purchasing actions. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. With downstream ironwater production stable above 241, the impact of tariffs has eased, and due to the lack of trading profit for Mongolian coal, the price has rebounded. The Sino - US tariff issue has a significant impact, and relevant developments should be continuously monitored [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated downward. The production of coking coal mines slightly declined from a high level, and the expectation of mine production cuts has increased. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and transaction prices have continued to decline. Terminal inventories continue to decline slightly. The total coking coal inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and whether the production - end inventory will continue to decline remains to be observed. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is still abundant. With downstream ironwater production stable above 241, the impact of tariffs has eased, and due to the lack of trading profit for Mongolian coal, the previous price has rebounded. The Sino - US tariff issue has a significant impact, and relevant developments should be continuously monitored [6] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese slightly declined. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production has started to increase, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The price of Comilog's long - term ore has been reduced by $0.15 to $4.25 per ton - degree, and the offer volume has recovered to over 400,000 tons per month. The shipment volume of South32 is likely to increase later, the manganese ore inventory accumulation rate has increased, and the price is further pressured. It is judged that the manganese ore price has started a further downward trend. Ironwater production has slightly declined, and the supply of silicomanganese has slightly increased. The manganese ore inventory has started a trend of accumulation, market expectations have changed, and the price remains weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [7] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon oscillated weakly. Ironwater production slightly declined. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand remained stable at a high level, with overall demand being acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon continued to decline, the market transaction level was average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory slightly decreased. Some ferrosilicon producers are in cash - flow losses and may adopt a trading model of taking delivery on the futures market and reselling to downstream, which is beneficial for ferrosilicon inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international oil prices increased overnight, and the crude oil market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with attention to the actual development of geopolitical risks in the Middle East [2]. - Gold prices rose slightly due to the fall of the US dollar, but the increase was restricted by the positive market sentiment. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, and silver has opened up upward space [3]. - Copper prices declined overnight but recovered due to the expected Fed rate - cut and the fall of the US dollar index. Short - sellers should consider changing positions and setting stop - losses [4]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile, and short positions can be considered on rallies as the demand may weaken seasonally [5][8]. - Alumina futures are expected to be weak, and short positions can be considered on rallies [6]. - Zinc prices are expected to be weak, and short positions are recommended on rallies [7]. - Nickel prices rebounded, and short - selling opportunities are awaited [9]. - Tin prices fell overnight, and attention should be paid to spot price adjustments [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, and light - position participation in the rebound is recommended [11]. - Industrial silicon futures rose with reduced positions, and caution is advised when chasing highs [12]. - Polysilicon futures are expected to be volatile in the short term [13]. - Steel prices fell overnight, and the demand outlook is pessimistic, with attention to terminal demand and policies [14]. - Coke and coking coal prices are volatile, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff developments [15][16]. - Manganese silicon prices are expected to be weak, and short positions can be tried on rallies [17]. - Ferrosilicon prices are mainly driven by coking coal, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [18]. - The container shipping index (European line) is uncertain, and attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [19]. - High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil crack spreads are expected to weaken [20]. - Asphalt prices are expected to rise with oil prices, but the crack spread is under pressure [21]. - Liquefied petroleum gas prices are expected to be in low - level oscillations [22]. - Urea prices are expected to be weak [23]. - Methanol prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [24]. - Styrene prices are expected to be supported by cost due to rising oil prices [25]. - Polypropylene and polyethylene prices are affected by cost and supply - demand factors, with limited upward momentum [26]. - PVC prices may be in low - level oscillations, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [27]. - PX valuation may be supported, while PTA prices may rise in the short term due to cost but face a weakening supply - demand situation [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices are in bottom - level oscillations with limited downward space [29]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices may face inventory pressure, and attention should be paid to enterprise production cuts [30]. - Glass prices fell overnight, and cautious operation is recommended [31]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak, and short positions are recommended at high levels [32]. - Soybean and soybean meal prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to weather changes [33]. - Palm oil prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to weather and supply - demand factors [34]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are expected to be supported in the short term [35]. - Domestic soybean prices are in horizontal adjustments, and attention should be paid to weather factors [36]. - Corn futures are expected to be volatile in the short term [37]. - Live hog prices are expected to be under short - term downward pressure and have long - term support [38]. - Egg prices have not reached the cyclical bottom, and attention should be paid to various factors [39]. - Cotton prices are recommended for temporary observation, with attention to trade talks and inventory [40]. - Sugar prices are expected to be in oscillations [41]. - Apple prices are in oscillations, and attention should be paid to new - season yield estimates [42]. - Wood prices are weak, and temporary observation is recommended [43]. - Pulp prices are recommended for temporary observation, with attention to long - position opportunities on significant dips [44]. - Stock index futures are expected to be in a slightly volatile repair pattern [45]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be in a bullish and volatile trend [46]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to spread trading opportunities [47]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight, international oil prices soared. Brent's August contract rose 6.28% to exceed $70/barrel. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations and geopolitical risks in the Middle East led to a sharp increase in oil prices. The unexpected decline in EIA crude oil inventories last week also supported the strong trend of crude oil [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, and its crack spread is expected to weaken. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, and its crack spread is expected to be under pressure [20]. - **Asphalt**: Overnight oil price increase is expected to drive up asphalt prices. However, the processing of diluted asphalt has a large theoretical loss, and the increase in asphalt production is limited. The terminal demand is expected to improve, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue, but the crack spread is under pressure [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Domestic refinery prices are weak. Although the chemical demand is increasing, the growth space is limited. The market is under pressure in the off - season, but the rise in oil prices provides some support [22]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices rose slightly due to the fall of the US dollar, but the increase was restricted by positive market sentiment. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, and silver has opened up upward space [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fell overnight but recovered due to the expected Fed rate - cut and the fall of the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to spot price adjustments and short - seller operations [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are volatile. The aluminum market is in the process of de - stocking, but the demand may weaken seasonally. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 20,300 yuan [5][8]. - **Alumina**: Alumina futures are weak, and short positions can be considered on rallies due to supply surplus [6]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are weak, and short positions are recommended on rallies. The supply of zinc ore is loosening, but the TC is low. The output of domestic smelters is expected to increase [7]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rebounded, and short - selling opportunities are awaited. The loading of nickel mines in the Philippines was delayed, and the NPI price was stable [9]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fell overnight, and attention should be paid to spot price adjustments and short - seller operations [10]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel**: Steel prices fell overnight. The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the negative feedback expectation is fermenting. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and policies [14]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Coke and coking coal prices are volatile. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the prices rebounded. Attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff developments [15][16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Manganese silicon prices are expected to be weak, and short positions can be tried on rallies. The manganese ore inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon prices are mainly driven by coking coal. The supply is decreasing, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [18]. Chemicals - **Urea**: Urea prices are weak. The agricultural demand is partially started but scattered, and the export is less than expected [23]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. The supply is sufficient, and the inventory is expected to increase [24]. - **Styrene**: Rising oil prices are expected to support styrene prices. The supply and demand are expected to increase slightly [25]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Rising oil prices support the cost, but the supply of polypropylene is increasing, and the demand is weak for both polypropylene and polyethylene [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices may be in low - level oscillations due to cost increase and supply - demand imbalance. Caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [27]. - **PX & PTA**: PX valuation may be supported, while PTA prices may rise in the short term due to cost but face a weakening supply - demand situation [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol prices are in bottom - level oscillations. The supply is increasing, but the downward space is limited [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices may face inventory pressure, and attention should be paid to enterprise production cuts [30]. Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds** - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade talks brought positive sentiment. The supply of soybeans is increasing, but the cost of imported soybeans is rising. The soybean meal inventory is rising, and the market is expected to be volatile [33]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Sino - US trade negotiations are expected to drive up the price of rapeseed seeds, and domestic rapeseed products are expected to be supported in the short term [35]. - **Corn**: Sino - US trade talks reached a framework consensus. The supply of corn in Shandong increased slightly. The start of the wheat minimum purchase price plan in Henan affected the corn market. Corn futures are expected to be volatile in the short term [37]. - **Livestock & Poultry** - **Pig**: Pig futures are in a narrow - range fluctuation. The short - term spot price is under downward pressure, and the long - term price has support [38]. - **Egg**: Egg futures showed different trends. The spot price generally decreased. The egg price has not reached the cyclical bottom, and attention should be paid to various factors [39]. - **Cash Crops** - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and the planting and growth conditions are normal. Sino - US trade talks are positive. Domestic cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is weak. Temporary observation is recommended [40]. - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is expected to be bearish, and domestic sugar inventory pressure is light. Sugar prices are expected to be in oscillations [41]. - **Apple**: Apple prices are in oscillations. The market demand is decreasing, and attention should be paid to new - season yield estimates [42]. - **Wood**: Wood prices are weak. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is relatively good in the off - season. Temporary observation is recommended [43]. - **Pulp**: Pulp prices are low. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the supply is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to long - position opportunities on significant dips [44]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The price of the Shanghai - Gdansk test route by Maersk decreased slightly. There are doubts about the sustainability of the freight rate. Attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [19]. - **Stock Index**: A - share markets oscillated and rose, and stock index futures are expected to be in a slightly volatile repair pattern [45]. - **Treasury Bond**: Bond markets are strong, and treasury bond futures are expected to be in a bullish and volatile trend [46]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to spread trading opportunities [47].

| SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月11日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | | | 棕櫚油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆仍在进行移仓,价格在横盘调整。河南省首批最低收购价托市小麦收购库点正式启动运行,政策端给 粮价托底。东北东部降水量偏大的问题。进口大豆方面中期会受天气驱动，天气会成为影响价格的主要因素, 今年美国大豆平衡表同比偏紧，所以今年要密切 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (interpreted as having a certain bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities according to the star - rating description) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The international oil price showed a pattern of rising and then falling overnight, and the SC07 contract declined by 0.35% during the day. The lack of incremental progress in Sino - US negotiations led to insufficient upward momentum for oil prices. Although there were short - term supports for crude oil, the medium - term decline in oil demand and the return of supply would limit the strength of short - term positives. The upward space for crude oil rebounds is limited [2]. - The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in shipping and deep - processing remains relatively weak. With the expected increase in high - sulfur heavy - crude supply from OPEC+ and sufficient low - sulfur fuel oil supply, the crack spreads of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to be under pressure [2]. - The BU crack spread of the September contract for asphalt has declined, reaching the entry point for the long - BU crack strategy. Despite short - term pressure on the crack spread, the upward trend is unlikely to reverse due to factors such as high dilution asphalt prices, limited production increase, and growing demand [3]. - The domestic LPG market is under pressure. Although the domestic chemical demand is increasing, the growth space is limited. The market is in a state of low - level oscillation with some support from the rising crude oil price [4]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose and then fell, with the SC07 contract down 0.35% during the day. After pricing in the optimistic expectations for Sino - US negotiations, there is no incremental progress beyond the Geneva consensus, resulting in insufficient upward momentum. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 370,000 barrels, less than expected. After the short - term negative impact of OPEC+ production increase in July, factors like risk - sentiment repair in Sino - US trade, improved peak - season demand, and sanctions risks supported crude oil, but medium - term demand decline and supply return will limit short - term positives [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil demand in shipping and deep - processing is weak. Although there is support from power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa, lower expected temperatures in Saudi Arabia and Egypt and high - valued crack spreads may lead to more oil - based power generation. The expected increase in high - sulfur heavy - crude supply from OPEC+ will likely weaken the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply from Kuwait's Al - zour refinery and Nigeria's Dongoto refinery is abundant, and with weak demand, its crack spread is expected to be under pressure [2]. Asphalt - The BU crack spread of the September contract for asphalt has declined, reaching the entry point for the long - BU crack strategy. The high price of diluted asphalt in June and July has led to serious theoretical losses in processing, and port inventories are at an absolute low. Although some refineries with quotas have increased or switched to asphalt production, subsequent production increase lacks momentum. After the maintenance peak, the increase in asphalt production from major refineries is expected to be limited. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has been increasing, and the cumulative year - on - year figure has turned positive. The sales volume of road rollers, a leading indicator of asphalt consumption, increased significantly from January to April. The balance sheet shows a continued de - stocking trend and low inventory levels. Although the BU crack spread faces short - term callback pressure, the upward trend is unlikely to reverse [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Domestic refinery prices for LPG remain weak. With the decline in terminal gas sales and increased refinery restarts, the domestic supply of LPG is abundant. Although domestic chemical demand is increasing month - on - month, the PDH profit margin has slightly declined, and the cost advantage of propane has decreased due to the fall in naphtha prices, limiting the growth space. Under off - season pressure, the inventories of terminals and refineries have increased, and the market is under pressure. The rising crude oil price provides some support to the futures market, and the market is in a state of low - level oscillation [4].