成长因子收益边际回升 金融工程周报 基金市场回顾： 权益市场风格 2025年12月15日 周度报告 操作评级 中信五风格-成长★☆☆ 金融工程组 张婧婕 Z0022617 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 1 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 截至2025/12/12当周，通联全A（沪深京）、中证综合债与南华 商品指数周度涨跌幅分别为0.26%、0.11%、-1.21% 。 公募基金市场方面，近一周纯债策略收益小幅回升；权益策略中 普通股票策略收益表现相对偏强，贵金属ETF收益继续走高，白 银期货ETF上涨9.27%，能源化工与豆粕ETF有所回撤。 中信五风格方面，上周成长风格收涨，其余风格收跌；风格轮动 图显示成长与金融风格相对强弱边际提升，稳定风格相对强弱动 量显著走低。公募基金池方面，近一周金融风格基金平均超额表 现相对偏弱，从基金风格系数走势来看市场对周期风格偏移度有 所下降；本周拥挤度指标相比上周小幅回升，当前周期风格基金 拥挤度上升至近一年以来偏高分位区间，而金融与消费风格拥挤 度位于近一年偏低分位区间。 中性策略方 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 【原油】 美委紧张局势加剧，美国扣押了一艘戴有约185万桶委内瑞拉重质原油的邮轮，消息并未引发市场关 于供应中断的担忧。俄罗斯11月海运石油产品出口量仅比10月下降0.8%，炼油厂完成检修后复工抵 消了黑海等燃料出口量下降的影响。驱动油价核心因素仍围绕供应过剩压力,她缘消息频发下油价 波动加剧,但波动幅度及持续性正呈现弱化趋势。 (责金属) 周五美国科技股下跌带动金融市场剧烈波动,贵金属冲高回落。上周美联储如期降息同时宣布购债 计划,鲍威尔强调就业下行风险,会议释放中性偏鸽信号略超预期。短期市场波动放大,黄金关注 历史高点位置阻力,如果实现突破则贵金属近期强势表现有望延续。 【铜】 上周五夜盘铜价短线回调快，沪铜盘中减仓暂时关注MA10日均线表现。目前仓量仍高，周内关注美 国前期迟滞公布的经济指标与日本央行动作。多单减仓观望。 (铝) 周五美股下跌带动商品市场整体走弱,沪铝跌破22000元。近期铝市基本面矛盾有限,社库小幅下 降,现货反馈尚可,沪铝中期震荡偏强趋势维持,短期关注40日线和布林线中轨位置支撑。 (铸造铝合金) 废 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides data on various financial products such as ETFs and indices, including their prices, price changes, implied volatility (IV), and related quantile data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - From December 10 - 12, 2025, the 50ETF price fluctuated, with a -0.32% decline on the 10th, -0.38% on the 11th, and a 0.45% increase on the 12th. The corresponding monthly IVs were 11.09%, 11.63%, and 11.04%, and the next - month IVs were 12.60%, 12.91%, and 12.44% [1]. - The skew index on December 12, 2025, was 94.15 [2]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - Between December 10 - 12, 2025, the Shanghai 300ETF price changed, with a -0.13% decline on the 10th, -0.72% on the 11th, and a 0.56% increase on the 12th. The monthly IVs were 13.09%, 13.86%, and 12.70%, and the next - month IVs were 14.34%, 14.86%, and 14.32% [3]. - The skew index on December 12, 2025, was 101.55 [5]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - From December 10 - 12, 2025, the Shenzhen 300ETF price fluctuated, with a -0.17% decline on the 10th, -0.73% on the 11th, and a 0.55% increase on the 12th. The monthly IVs were 13.05%, 13.86%, and 13.14%, and the next - month IVs were 14.43%, 15.06%, and 14.27% [6]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - Between December 10 - 12, 2025, the Shanghai CSI 500ETF price changed, with a -0.21% decline on the 10th, -0.32% on the 11th, and a 0.30% increase on the 12th. The monthly IVs were 15.85%, 16.52%, and 15.67%, and the next - month IVs were 17.17%, 17.35%, and 16.95% [13]. - The skew index on December 12, 2025, was 104.79 [17]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - From December 10 - 12, 2025, the Shenzhen CSI 500ETF price fluctuated, with a 0.56% increase on the 10th, -0.77% on the 11th, and a 1.20% increase on the 12th. The monthly IVs were 15.83%, 16.97%, and 15.48%, and the next - month IVs were 16.91%, 17.73%, and 12.60% [21]. - The skew index on December 12, 2025, was 111.18 [28]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - Between December 10 - 12, 2025, the ChiNext ETF price changed, with a 0.13% increase on the 10th, -1.44% on the 11th, and a 0.89% increase on the 12th. The monthly IVs were 25.03%, 26.11%, and 23.78%, and the next - month IVs were 25.94%, 26.52%, and 26.13% [29]. - The skew index on December 12, 2025, was 112.31 [34]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - From December 10 - 12, 2025, the Shenzhen 100ETF price fluctuated, with a 0.23% increase on the 10th, -1.32% on the 11th, and a 0.58% increase on the 12th. The monthly IVs were 17.67%, 24.69%, and 18.19%, and the next - month IVs were 18.36%, 19.11%, and 18.79% [39]. - The skew index on December 12, 2025, was 106.03 [42]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - Between December 10 - 12, 2025, the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF price changed, with a 0.07% increase on the 10th, -1.63% on the 11th, and a 1.87% increase on the 12th. The monthly IVs were 24.98%, 25.66%, and 24.11%, and the next - month IVs were 26.81%, 27.19%, and 26.69% [48]. - The skew index on December 12, 2025, was 103.82 [50]. 3.9 STAR 50ETF - From December 10 - 12, 2025, the STAR 50ETF price fluctuated, with a 0.00% change on the 10th, -1.53% on the 11th, and a 1.63% increase on the 12th. The monthly IVs were 25.16%, 26.48%, and 23.94%, and the next - month IVs were 27.10%, 27.43%, and 26.66% [54]. - The skew index on December 12, 2025, was 103.96 [60]. 3.10 300 Index - Between December 10 - 12, 2025, the 300 Index price changed, with a -0.14% decline on the 10th, -0.86% on the 11th, and a 0.63% increase on the 12th. The monthly IVs were 12.82%, 13.38%, and 11.78%, and the next - month IVs were 14.64%, 15.36%, and 14.46% [66]. - The skew index on December 12, 2025, was 100.59 [70]. 3.11 1000 Index - From December 10 - 12, 2025, the 1000 Index price fluctuated, with a 0.37% increase on the 10th, -1.30% on the 11th, and a 0.81% increase on the 12th. The monthly IVs were 16.04%, 17.06%, and 14.68%, and the next - month IVs were 17.36%, 18.03%, and 17.18% [71]. - The skew index on December 12, 2025, was 120.40 [76]. 3.12 SSE 50 Index - Between December 10 - 12, 2025, the SSE 50 Index price changed, with a -0.31% decline on the 10th, -0.39% on the 11th, and a 0.59% increase on the 12th. The monthly IVs were 11.52%, 12.19%, and 10.54%, and the next - month IVs were 53.96%, 53.93%, and 56.08% [78]. - The skew index on December 12, 2025, was 102.99 [84].

Economic Outlook - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to "explore economic potential" and integrate policy effects, shifting focus from external uncertainties to overall changes in the environment[2] - The assessment of risks has cooled, with a shift from "guarding against systemic risks" to "orderly resolution of local government debt risks" for 2026[2] - The focus for 2026 will be on "developing new productive forces" and "unifying the national market," indicating a structural shift in economic strategy[4] Demand-Side Strategies - The conference highlighted the need to "stabilize investment" and "support the real estate market," indicating a structural optimization towards real economy stability[5] - A new emphasis on "urban and rural residents' income increase plans" was introduced, expanding the scope of income growth initiatives[5] - The approach to real estate has become more proactive, with policies encouraging the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing[5] Supply-Side Initiatives - The focus on "deepening the rectification of 'involutionary' competition" and reinforcing the role of enterprises in innovation was emphasized[6] - The "dual carbon" strategy will lead to significant energy efficiency improvements and the establishment of a new energy system[7] Policy Framework - The monetary policy remains "appropriately loose," with a focus on maintaining liquidity and promoting economic stability and reasonable price recovery[8] - Fiscal policy will maintain necessary deficits and optimize expenditure structures, rather than expanding beyond 2025 levels[8] - The goal of monetary policy will include combating deflation, indicating a shift towards stabilizing prices and supporting economic growth[8] Asset Class Outlook - The report suggests that the risks associated with external and internal factors have decreased compared to 2025, with a focus on balancing asset prices and expanding domestic demand[10] - Investors are advised to consider a structural rebalancing in 2026, increasing allocations towards stock market profitability and commodity market inflation trends[10] - The stability of the US dollar and its impact on domestic liquidity will be crucial for the macroeconomic outlook[11]

免责声明 本研究报告由国投期货有限公司撰写,研究报告中所提供的信息仅供参考。报告根据国际和行业通行的准则，以合 法渠道获得这些信息,尽可能保证可靠、准确和完整,但并不保证报告所述信息的准确性和完整性。本报告不能作 为投资研究决策的依据,不能作为道义的、责任的和法律的依据或者凭证,无论是否已经明示或者暗示。国投期货 有限公司将随时补充、更正和修订有关信息,但不保证及时发布。对于本报告所提供信息所导致的任何直接的或者 间接的投资盈亏后果不承担任何责任。 都泓佳 Z0017641 黄恬 Z0021089 表:近三次中央经济工作会议政策要点梳理 | 2025中央经济工作会议 | 2024中央经济工作会议 | 2023中央经济工作会议 | 经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展， | 现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革 | 经济社会发展主要目标任务即将顺利完 | 开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解 | | | | | | 成。当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响 | 取得积极进展， ...

| Million | > 图技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月12日 | | 尿素 | な☆☆ | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 频料 | ★☆☆ | | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | なな女 | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | PTA | 女女女 | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | ななな | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | ☆☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 塑料和聚丙 ...

| 模 | | --- | | S | | 1 | | 72 1 | | D | | 1 | | 1 | | V 2 | | 原油 | 女女女 | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月12日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 美国正准备扣押更多运输委内瑞拉石油的船只,行动将针对可能运输过其他受制裁原油的油轮,该扣押行动或 导致至少三批共计600万桶委内瑞拉原油运输被暂停。 IEA月报下调了创纪录石油供应过刺预测，供应过利规模 略有收窄,但仍处于高位。油价再次进入供应过剩与地缘、宏观因素博弈阶段。尽管地缘犹动升温，但其对油 价的提振作用具有阶段性特点,且提振力度似乎逐渐低于此前表现。中长期来看,油价核心驱动仍是供应过 剩, 推动油价中枢持续下移。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 近期燃料油价格主要跟随因她缘冲突与供需博弈而波动的原油成本瑞运行。就 ...

| > 国立斯员 111 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月12日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | ★据三位消息人士称，日本央行可能在下周维持将继续加息的承诺，但会强调进一步加息的步伐将取决于经 济对每次加息的反应。日本央行行长植田和男已基本提前宣布12月加息，市场几乎已完全消化了12月将利率 从0.5%上调至0.75%的可能性。市场的关注点已转向日本央行能在何种程度将利率提升至中性水平。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The negative feedback pattern in the steel market continues, with weak demand and low profits for steel mills. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the volatility may intensify in the weak market [2]. - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation, with a downward pressure on the overall trend in the medium and long term due to the gradually surplus supply and demand [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by the decline in iron water production and the pressure on steel mill profits, and the prices may be weak and volatile [4][6]. - The silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets have different supply and demand situations, with the price movements affected by factors such as raw material prices and demand [7][8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline. The demand and supply of both thread steel and hot rolled coil decreased, and the inventory pressure remained. The iron water production continued to decline, and the possibility of further blast furnace production cuts was high. The downstream demand was weak, and the export remained high. The market sentiment was pessimistic, and the coal and coke price drops put pressure on the market [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market fluctuated. The global shipment was strong, and the domestic port inventory reached a new high. The demand was weak in the off - season, and the iron water was in a seasonal production - cut trend. The macro - expectations were gradually realized, and the overall trend had a downward pressure in the medium and long term [3]. Coke - The coke price fluctuated downward. The second round of price cuts was fully implemented, and the coking profit was average. The inventory decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. The price might be weak and volatile [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated downward. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand was weak, and the price might be weak and volatile [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated upward. The manganese ore price increased due to the futures market rebound. The port inventory had a structural problem, and the demand for some ores might change. The iron water production decreased seasonally, and the inventory increased slowly [7]. Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price fluctuated upward. The market expected a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The demand from metal magnesium production increased marginally, and the overall demand was still resilient. The supply decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [8].

| 《八》 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月12日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，01减仓,05增仓;棉花现货主流销售基差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大,但商业 库存同比基本持平、销售进度偏快，也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季，但需求总体持稳，关注春节前 需求能否出现小旺季。郑棉突破后的走势，短期上涨空间仍偏谨慎。截至11月底，全国棉花商业库存为468.36 万吨，环比增加175.3万吨 ...