| 1 1 1 12 標 1 œ | | --- | | 4 17 | | 7 1 2 2 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2025年12月23日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 围绕委内瑞拉的地缘紧张局势,引发脉冲式的"风险溢价"交易,推动油价反弹。然而,鉴于其他地区充足的 闲置产能以及委内瑞拉出口已因多年制裁而大打折扣，若单一国委内瑞拉原油供应中断引发的全球实质性供应 收紧预计有限。乌克兰对俄罗斯船只的袭击更添供应犹动风险。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly this week. The factor strength of precious metals remained high, while that of the agricultural products sector decreased slightly. The precious metals and non - ferrous sectors were relatively strong in cross - section, the black and energy sectors were above the neutral range, and the agricultural products sector was relatively weak [3]. - In the methanol strategy, the inventory factor weakened by 0.02% last week, the synthetic factor declined by 0.02%, and the comprehensive signal this week is long. In the float glass strategy, the synthetic factor increased by 1.38% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week is short. In the iron ore strategy, the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.19% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week remains neutral. In the lead strategy, the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.42% last week, and the comprehensive signal this week changed from short to long [5][8][10] Section Summaries Commodity Market Overview - The proportion of long positions in commodities increased slightly this week. Precious metals and non - ferrous sectors were strong in cross - section, agricultural products were weak. Gold's time - series momentum rose slightly, silver's position increased more marginally. In the non - ferrous sector, short - cycle momentum recovered, and the term structure differentiation narrowed. In the black sector, time - series momentum showed a marginal decline. In the energy and chemical sector, short - cycle momentum factors recovered. In the agricultural products sector, the cross - section differentiation of oilseeds and meals narrowed [3] Performance of Different Factors - **Methanol**: Last week, the inventory factor weakened by 0.02%, the synthetic factor declined by 0.02%. The import methanol arrival volume and domestic road transport prices sent long signals on the supply side; the raw material procurement volume of domestic methanol - to - olefins enterprises decreased on the demand side; the methanol port continued to destock on the inventory side; the domestic methanol spot price fell while the port price was strong on the spread side [5] - **Float Glass**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 1.51%, the demand factor strengthened by 1.62%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.13%, the spread factor increased by 0.29%, the profit factor strengthened by 0.21%, and the synthetic factor increased by 1.38%. The supply side is neutral, the demand side is slightly long, the inventory side turns neutral, and the profit side remains short [8] - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the inventory factor declined by 0.59%, and the comprehensive factor weakened by 0.19%. The supply side turns to short feedback but the signal remains neutral, the demand side's long feedback weakens and turns to neutral, the inventory side's signal turns from short to neutral, and the spread side's short feedback weakens slightly and the signal remains neutral [10] - **Lead**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.6%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.56%, the spread factor increased by 0.51%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.42%. The supply side signal turns from short to neutral, the inventory side signal turns from neutral to long, and the spread side signal turns from short to long [10] Data Tables - **Commodity Factors Performance Table**: It shows the last week's and current month's returns of supply, demand, inventory, spread, and the cumulative returns of major categories [4] - **Factor Index Table for Different Sectors**: It presents the time - series momentum, cross - section momentum, term structure, and position volume of black, non - ferrous, energy and chemical, agricultural products, stock index, and precious metals sectors [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is mainly in a range-bound pattern, and attention should be paid to changes in macro policies [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be mainly volatile, with market expectations for stimulus policies [4][5] - For silicon manganese, it is recommended to try long positions on dips [6] - For ferrosilicon, it is also recommended to try long positions on dips [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures price rose and then fell today. The apparent demand for thread improved slightly, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory reduction accelerated slightly, but the pressure still needs to be relieved [2] - Pig iron production continued to decline, supply pressure gradually eased, steel mill profits improved marginally, and the production reduction trend may slow down. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2] - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing continued to decline, domestic demand was still weak overall, steel exports remained high, and the actual impact of license management remains to be observed [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price was weakly volatile today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased month-on-month but were still stronger than the same period last year. There is an expectation of a shipment rush by mines at the end of the year, and overseas shipments are expected to remain strong [3] - The domestic arrival volume decreased month-on-month but was still at a high level in the same period, and port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - On the demand side, terminal demand in the off-season is at a low level. Steel mills' profitability is poor, and due to environmental protection factors, pig iron production has decreased significantly. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has decreased, and there is currently no active replenishment demand [3] Coke - The coke futures price was strongly volatile today. The third round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly [4] - Coke inventory decreased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers are purchasing on a small scale as needed, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures price was widely volatile today. At the end of the year, some coal mines have reduced or suspended production due to safety production and the completion of annual production tasks [5] - Coking coal production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly. Terminal inventory increased, and total coking coal inventory increased slightly, with production-side inventory also increasing slightly [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures price was mainly volatile today. Driven by the rebound in the futures price, the spot price of manganese ore increased [6] - There is a structural problem with the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for furnace charging. If the amount of oxidized ore decreases significantly, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase [6] - On the demand side, pig iron production decreased seasonally. Silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures price was mainly strong today. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expectation of a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices [7] - On the demand side, pig iron production rebounded to a high level. Export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact that is not significant. The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand still has resilience [7] - Ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The two-olefin futures main contracts fluctuated widely during the day and operated weakly overall. The supply of plastics and polypropylene is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak, with the bear market pattern continuing [2]. - The benzene futures price fell after reaching 5,500 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand pressure may ease. The styrene futures main contract rose, but the supply increase may be greater than the demand increase [3]. - PX prices rose due to strong expectations, but the cost transmission resistance may gradually appear. Ethylene glycol is under long-term pressure, and the new supply concerns have limited impact on the current market [4]. - The raw materials are strong, squeezing the profits of downstream polyester products. Short fibers have a relatively good long-term supply and demand pattern, and bottle chips are driven by cost with overcapacity pressure [5]. - Methanol may operate weakly in the short term and has upward driving force in the medium and long term. The urea market continues to have a pattern of oversupply [6]. - PVC may operate at a low level, and caustic soda will continue to compress profits [7]. - Soda ash faces long-term oversupply pressure, and glass needs to continue to reduce production capacity to reach balance [8]. Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The two-olefin futures main contracts fluctuated widely and operated weakly. The supply of plastics and polypropylene is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak, with the bear market pattern continuing [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The benzene futures price fell after reaching 5,500 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand pressure may ease. The styrene futures main contract rose, but the supply increase may be greater than the demand increase [3]. Polyester - PX prices rose due to strong expectations, but the cost transmission resistance may gradually appear. Ethylene glycol is under long-term pressure, and the new supply concerns have limited impact on the current market [4]. - The raw materials are strong, squeezing the profits of downstream polyester products. Short fibers have a relatively good long-term supply and demand pattern, and bottle chips are driven by cost with overcapacity pressure [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol may operate weakly in the short term and has upward driving force in the medium and long term. The urea market continues to have a pattern of oversupply [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC may operate at a low level, and caustic soda will continue to compress profits [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash faces long-term oversupply pressure, and glass needs to continue to reduce production capacity to reach balance [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum and palladium prices hit the daily limit across all contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on December 22, 2025, driven by domestic long - term funds. The prices have significant increases, and they are natural multi - allocation varieties under the influence of fundamentals and the macro - level [2]. - In the super bull cycle of precious metals, the high - to - low shift of funds gives platinum and palladium higher premiums. Their investment and consumption have great growth potential, and the price logic affects the supply - demand expectations of the fundamentals [3]. - The supply side is brittle, and the large - scale application prospects of hydrogen energy boost consumption expectations. There will be supply shortages for platinum and palladium in 2026 [4]. - The current precious metal and non - ferrous metal market is a re - balance of "money" and "resources". Platinum and palladium, with high import dependence in China, are suitable for multi - allocation [6]. - The large price difference between domestic and foreign platinum and palladium will attract arbitrage trading, and the price difference is expected to converge [7]. - In the long - term, platinum and palladium follow the super bull cycle of precious metals. In 2026, platinum is more likely to break through historical highs. In the short - term, they may achieve most of the annual increase, and the mid - term strategy is to allocate more on dips [8]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Higher Premiums for Platinum and Palladium due to High - to - Low Fund Shift in the Precious Metal Super Bull Cycle - In the context of the global situation, precious metals have allocation value. Gold and silver price increases provide higher premium space for platinum and palladium. The investment and consumption of platinum and palladium have great growth potential, and price and supply - demand expectations interact [3]. II. Brittle Supply Side and Boosted Consumption Expectations from Hydrogen Energy Application - The "15th Five - Year Plan" promotes the development of hydrogen energy. The supply of platinum and palladium is highly concentrated. It is expected that in 2026, platinum will face a supply shortage of about 23 tons, and palladium will have a supply shortage of about 3 tons [4]. III. Re - balance of "Money" and "Resources" - The current market is a re - balance of "money" and "resources". China has a high import dependence on platinum and palladium, so they are suitable for multi - allocation [6]. IV. Convergence of Domestic and Foreign Price Differences - Due to the high import dependence of platinum and palladium in China and relatively easy import procedures, the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets will attract arbitrage trading. Import merchants and speculative funds can lock in profits through cross - market arbitrage [7]. V. Market Outlook - Platinum and palladium prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have reached new highs. Platinum is more likely to break through historical highs in 2026. They follow the precious metal bull cycle. In the short - term, they may achieve most of the annual increase, and the mid - term strategy is to allocate more on dips, while being vigilant against the "long - killing - long" market [8].

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月23日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | な☆☆ | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一主力经过短暂的跳空之后,盘面再度回升,盘面仍然在进行移仓。本周中储粮计划竞价拍卖大豆2.1万吨, 成交1.3万吨,底价3950元/吨,成交均价4027元/吨,溢价0-160元/吨。由于拍卖溢价成交,给豆一价格带来一 定的支撑,价格表 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic. It also presents the market mainstream strategy views and investment logic for different asset classes based on the views of multiple institutions [1]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market Quotes - **Commodities**: From December 15 to December 19, 2025, among commodities, the prices of some products such as coking coal, PTA, and polysilicon increased, with coking coal rising by 9.00%, PTA by 5.81%, and polysilicon by 5.34%. While the prices of some products such as copper, soybean meal, and corn decreased, with copper down 1.05%, soybean meal down 1.26%, and corn down 1.84% [2]. - **A - shares**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 0.32%, the CSI 500 Index remained unchanged, and the CSI 300 Index fell 0.28% [2]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The FTSE 100 Index rose 2.57%, the French CAC40 Index rose 1.03%, the NASDAQ Index rose 0.48%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.10%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.10%, and the Nikkei 225 Index fell 2.61% [2]. - **Bonds**: The yields of 2 - year and 5 - year Chinese government bonds increased by 0.38bp and 0.24bp respectively, while the yield of 10 - year Chinese government bonds decreased by 0.44bp [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index rose 0.32%, the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.12%, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate fell 0.28% [2]. 3.2 Commodity Views - **Macro - financial Sector** - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 7 institutions, 0 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 7 were neutral. Positive factors included overseas central bank policies, increased long - term capital allocation after index corrections, market attention to technology themes, and expected policy dividends in 2026. Negative factors included a decline in M1 growth, weakening policy impetus, weak economic momentum, and time - consuming policy implementation [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions, 3 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 4 were neutral. Positive factors were weak fundamentals, central bank liquidity injection, the attractiveness of 30 - year bond yields, and potential bond market recovery. Negative factors were low probability of short - term interest rate cuts, increased influence of trading disks, and concerns about ultra - long bond supply and demand [3]. - **Energy Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Among 8 institutions, 0 were bullish, 5 were bearish, and 3 were neutral. Positive factors were supply disruptions in Venezuela, inventory decline in the US, increased refinery utilization rates in China and the US, and strong local refined oil demand. Negative factors were limited impact of Venezuelan supply disruptions, rising non - OPEC production, increasing floating storage inventory, and expected slowdown in demand growth [4]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybean Meal**: Among 7 institutions, 0 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 4 were neutral. Positive factors were high import costs of US soybeans, pre - holiday stocking demand, increased replenishment by traders after price drops, and signs of short - position reduction in futures. Negative factors were strong expectations of a South American soybean harvest, poor performance of domestic soybean auctions, high inventory in oil mills, and weak purchasing willingness of feed enterprises [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: Among 8 institutions, 4 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 4 were neutral. Positive factors were zero long - term processing fees in 2026, low spot smelting fees, continuous increase in copper foil operating rates, a decline in domestic copper concentrate port inventory, and high market attention. Negative factors were end - of - year capital shortages, high social inventory, weak terminal demand in the off - season, and a decline in the operating rate of refined copper rods [5]. - **Chemical Industry Sector** - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions, 0 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 7 were neutral. Positive factors were potential cold - repair plans in late December, low near - month valuations, and potential boost from real - estate policies. Negative factors were a decline in deep - processing order days, slow market shipments, high inventory, and limited upside potential due to high inventory and off - season pressure [5]. - **Precious Metals Sector** - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions, 3 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 4 were neutral. Positive factors were an increase in the US unemployment rate, lower - than - expected CPI, an increase in non - commercial net long positions in gold, and long - term support from central bank gold purchases. Negative factors were rapid adjustment of the gold - silver ratio, approaching a key resistance level, and market divergence on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm [6]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions, 3 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 5 were neutral. Positive factors were release of supply pressure, low valuation, production cuts by some coal mines, increased winter - storage demand from steel mills, and improved spot - market transactions. Negative factors were high imports, a decline in steel mills' daily hot - metal production, reduced demand from coking plants, and an increase in total coking coal inventory [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Eggs [1] - **Neutral Outlook**: Soybean [1] - **Negative Outlook**: Corn, Live Pigs [1] Core Views - The overall trend of agricultural products shows a mixed pattern, with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] - The prices of some products are expected to follow the market situation, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors such as export, weather, and production season [3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - The main soybean contract rebounded after a short - term gap, and the contract is being shifted. The auction of soybeans by CGS in the middle of this week had a certain supporting effect on the price, and the price was stable and strong. It is necessary to continuously monitor the fundamentals and policies [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic oil mill operating rate has rebounded, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly. The de - stocking trend of soybean meal since December is difficult to continue. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. The price of US soybean futures has fallen back to the previous bottom range. The price of soybean meal will follow the US soybean to fluctuate in the near future [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil continued to rebound, while soybean oil fell back after rising. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil showed an improvement in exports and a decline in production, alleviating the negative atmosphere. US soybeans also rebounded after a recent decline [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market has seen rising meal and falling oil recently, but the overall fluctuation range is not large. The domestic coastal oil mills maintain a zero - pressing state. The import data in November shows that the trade between China and Russia in the rapeseed sector is getting closer. The rapeseed futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and North Ports have slowly declined. The downstream procurement has no obvious increase after the phased supply - demand mismatch is alleviated. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures and spot markets have both risen slightly. It is expected that there will be a wave of second - fattening replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may support the current pig price. In the medium - to - long term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year, and the main 03 contract price is expected to be weak [8] Eggs - The egg contract has increased its position by more than 10,000 lots. The contracts corresponding to the off - season after the Spring Festival are weak, while the contracts from the second to the third quarter have increased in position and price. It is recommended to consider the 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 reverse spread strategy [9]

今日贵金属延续强势。近期美国数据有利于降息的延续，地缘方面以色列和伊朗、美国和委内瑞拉之间现紧 张氛围。黄金周一突破前高刷新历史新高，贵金属短期趋势得到强化。国内资金是铂祀多头主力，外盘跟涨 内盘为主,国内积极计价远月铂供不应求,推升内外价差,但内外盘合约月份不匹配,价格可比较性稍弱, 鉴于我国铂进口依赖度超八成，内外价差进一步扩大空间预计有限。 ★美联储理事米兰：支持降息50个基点的必要性有所减弱。若在明年1月31日前无人接替理事一职，可能会 继续留任。 ★据CNBC:熟悉情况的人士透露，美国总统特朗普可能在明年1月第一周任命新的美联储主席。 ★乌美谈判结束,泽连斯基称"和平计划"初稿关键工作完成。 ★欧盟将针对俄罗斯的经济制裁措施再延长6个月， 至2026年7月31日。 | 国校期节 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月23日 | | 黄金 | 白银 ★☆☆ | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | ...

| 《八 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月23日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉继续上涨，棉花现货主流销售甚差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大，但商业库存同比基本持平，销售进度偏 快，也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季，但需求总体持稳。截至12月18号，国内棉花累计加工皮棉648.6万吨，同比增加 82.0万吨，较过去四年均值增加155.2万吨。国内商业库存同比偏低，截至12月15号，全国棉花商业库存 ...