Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1. Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes | Asset Class | Sub - variety | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Commodities | Iron ore | 785.50 | 1.68% | | | Corn | 2195.00 | 0.46% | | | Rebar | 3057.00 | 0.13% | | | PTA | 4666.00 | - 0.72% | | | Palm oil | 8550.00 | - 1.09% | | | Polysilicon | 53360.00 | - 1.27% | | | Copper | 85660.00 | - 1.43% | | | Crude oil | 447.40 | - 2.19% | | | Aluminum | 21340.00 | - 2.29% | | | Methanol | 2004.00 | - 2.48% | | | Soybean meal | 3012.00 | - 2.59% | | | Gold | 926.94 | - 2.75% | | | Ethylene glycol | 3808.00 | - 2.91% | | | PVC | 4456.00 | - 3.30% | | | Live pigs | 11350.00 | - 3.61% | | | Glass | 987.00 | - 4.36% | | | Silver | 11680.00 | - 5.62% | | | Coking coal | 1103.00 | - 7.47% | 2.2. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes | Stock Index | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai 50 | 2955.85 | - 2.72% | | CSI 300 | 4453.61 | - 3.77% | | CSI 500 | 6817.41 | - 5.78% | | FTSE 100 | 9539.71 | - 1.64% | | S&P 500 | 6602.99 | - 1.95% | | France CAC40 | 7982.65 | - 2.29% | | NASDAQ Index | 22273.08 | - 2.74% | | Nikkei 225 | 48625.88 | - 3.48% | | Hang Seng Index | 25220.02 | - 5.09% | 2.3. Bonds and Weekly Changes | Bond | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.59 | + 0.62bp | | 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.82 | + 0.14bp | | 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.43 | - 0.45bp | 2.4. Foreign Exchange and Weekly Changes | Foreign Exchange | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 100.15 | + 0.87% | | US Dollar Intermediate Price | 7.09 | + 0.07% | | Euro - US Dollar | 1.15 | - 0.93% | [2] 3. Commodity Views 3.1. Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy View: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Nvidia's better - than - expected performance eases AI bubble concerns; Fed officials' remarks boost rate - cut expectations; loose expectations remain, and the stock index may stage a phased recovery; significant short - term decline with strong downside support. - Bearish Logic: Fed's hawkish stance causes liquidity expectations to fluctuate; rising US Dollar Index suppresses global risk appetite; AI bubble controversy affects tech stocks; fading speculative sentiment leads to reduced trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy View: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Weak fundamental data and insufficient domestic demand support loose expectations; central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading signals policy support; medium - to - long - term allocation demand pulls interest rates down; limited incremental policies at the end of the year. - Bearish Logic: Low expectation of further rate cuts, lack of upward momentum; tight external market liquidity affects the bond market; new redemption rules suppress the bond market, especially 30 - year bonds [4]. 3.2. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: OPEC + suspends production increase, tightening supply expectations; northern hemisphere's heating season boosts demand; geopolitical risks in South America remain; short - term disruption of Libyan exports; Fed officials' calming remarks boost rate - cut expectations; potential stabilization after short - term oversold. - Bearish Logic: Persistent global supply surplus and inventory accumulation; fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations and tight liquidity; overall slowdown in fourth - quarter demand; significant decline in geopolitical risks [5]. 3.3. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Malaysia enters the production - reduction season, easing supply pressure; India's import profit recovery may increase procurement; Indonesia's B50 policy boosts long - term biodiesel demand; widening international soybean - palm oil price difference makes palm oil more cost - effective. - Bearish Logic: US cancellation of relevant energy offices is negative for biodiesel policies; weak Malaysian palm oil exports in November; large domestic inventory accumulation; winter consumption off - season and expected inventory build - up [5]. 3.4. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Low inventory provides price support; limited supply increase expected in 2026, maintaining a tight supply - demand balance; emerging sectors like energy storage drive long - term aluminum consumption. - Bearish Logic: AI bubble concerns affect metal performance; cooling Fed rate - cut expectations pressure metal prices; potential decline in photovoltaic production may suppress aluminum consumption; high prices squeeze processing profits; industry off - season affects demand and开工 [6]. 3.5. Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Potential winter maintenance in Iran may reduce imports; attention to year - end maintenance of southwest gas - based producers; increased losses in coal - to - methanol production may force a reduction in operating loads; low valuation limits downside space. - Bearish Logic: Weakening macro - drivers lead to trading of weak fundamentals; high import arrivals and expected port inventory build - up; compressed MTO profits reduce methanol procurement; weakening coal - based cost support [6]. 3.6. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy View: 2 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Fed officials' dovish signals boost rate - cut expectations; geopolitical and policy uncertainties increase gold's safe - haven appeal; US debt credit issues weaken long - term US dollar confidence; global central banks' continuous gold purchases support long - term demand. - Bearish Logic: Large internal differences within the Fed lead to unclear policy guidance; better - than - expected non - farm payrolls strengthen the hawkish stance; improving US dollar liquidity may increase market risk appetite [7]. 3.7. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Tight supply expectations of Australian coal may support import costs; potential decline in production after year - end production targets are met; increased demand from winter heating. - Bearish Logic: Supply - guarantee policies make the market cautious; increased steel mill losses lead to reduced hot metal production; significant increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance; more online auction failures indicate weak demand; high coking coal inventory in coke enterprises reduces restocking willingness [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The soybean market needs to focus on US soybean exports in the short - term and South American soybean产区 weather in the medium - term. For soybean meal, wait for the end of the correction and look for buying opportunities after stabilization. Palm oil's marginal changes may trigger short - covering, and soybean oil is affected by US soybean prices. The short - term driver of the rapeseed sector is not obvious, and it is recommended to wait and see. The corn market should pay attention to the new grain sales progress in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat. The live pig industry's capacity reduction supports far - month futures prices, and the egg market's medium - term supply pressure is expected to ease [2][3][4][6][7][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract is reducing positions and prices are correcting. The new domestic soybean market features high - quality, high - price. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuates. Short - term focus on the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance, and also pay attention to US soybean exports in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient and the crushing volume has increased. Last week, the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume exceeded 2.3 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory of major oil mills rose above 1.1 million tons. South American new - season soybeans are affected by La Nina, with slow planting progress. Wait for the signing of the new Sino - US economic and trade agreement and look for buying opportunities after the correction [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The marginal negative factors in the palm oil market have eased. MPOA expects a 3.24% month - on - month increase in production from November 1 - 20, much lower than the previous forecast. The basis of palm oil in East China has strengthened slightly. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has turned positive and strengthened. Palm oil's changes may trigger short - covering. Soybean oil is affected by US soybean prices [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures prices have risen slightly, mainly following the rise of foreign oil prices. Canadian rapeseed crushing demand is high, but the export demand trend is hard to reverse. The import of Australian rapeseed has profit potential. The short - term driver of the rapeseed sector is not obvious, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Corn - Corn futures rose and then fell today, interrupting the upward trend. The spot price of Northeast corn is firm, while that of North China is weak. The price difference between the two regions has widened. The downstream corn inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the new grain sales progress in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. Live Pigs - In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased to 39.9 million, a 1.1% month - on - month decline. The industry's capacity reduction supports far - month futures prices. The spot price of live pigs continues to decline. The demand for curing and sausage - making in the South will gradually start, but there is also pressure from the second - fattening pigs. It is expected that the pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - Egg futures continue to increase positions, and the far - month contracts have risen significantly. Since July this year, the chick replenishment volume has declined sharply. The number of newly - laid hens will decrease, and the number of old hens to be culled will increase. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg market is expected to ease. The short - term near - month contracts will focus on the convergence of the spot - futures price difference [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking coal: ★★★ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain range-bound with limited upside due to weak demand, while the iron ore market is expected to be volatile with a generally loose supply-demand situation. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to be weak and volatile, and the silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are also expected to be volatile with some uncertainties [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Category Steel - The steel market is currently oscillating. Thread demand has improved, production has increased, and inventory has decreased. Hot-rolled coil demand has recovered, production has slightly increased, and inventory has started to decline. However, downstream demand is weak, and steel mills are still in a loss-making state. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and other places. The real estate investment decline has continued to widen, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline. Domestic demand remains weak, and steel exports have declined from their highs. The spot price is relatively firm, and the futures market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis. However, weak demand restricts the upside space, and the overall market is expected to remain range-bound. Attention should be paid to policy changes in the real estate sector [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is currently oscillating. The global shipment volume has decreased month-on-month but is still stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded to a high for the year, and port inventories are expected to return to the inventory replenishment trend this week. The steel demand is at a low level, and it is currently in the off-season. Steel mills are not profitable, and pig iron production is still in a seasonal decline trend, although the decline rate has slowed down. Attention should be paid to whether there will be favorable policies at the macro level. The iron ore fundamentals are relatively loose, but there are still short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore varieties. The market is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - The coke market is currently oscillating. Coking profits are average, and daily production has continued to decline slightly. Coke inventory has increased slightly, and downstream demand is limited. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream pig iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and production-side inventory has decreased slightly. The safety inspection in the main coal-producing areas has considered the seasonal decline in pig iron production, and the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. However, the profit level of steel mills is average, and there is a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures market is at a premium, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is currently weak and oscillating. Coking coal production has decreased slightly, and spot auction transactions are average, with prices mainly falling. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream pig iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and production-side inventory has decreased slightly. The safety inspection in the main coal-producing areas has considered the seasonal decline in pig iron production, and the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. However, the profit level of steel mills is average, and there is a strong sentiment to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures market is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese market is currently oscillating. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, which is expected to lead to a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices. On the demand side, pig iron production has rebounded to a high level. Silicon manganese weekly production has decreased slightly, but production is still at a relatively high level, and inventory is slowly increasing. The prices of spot manganese ore have fluctuated, with high-grade oxidized ore slightly increasing and semi-carbonate ore slightly decreasing. Manganese ore inventory has increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The expected bottom support has shifted downward [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon market is currently oscillating. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, which is expected to lead to a decline in power costs and Lan charcoal prices. On the demand side, pig iron production has rebounded to a high level. Export demand has declined to over 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand still has some resilience. Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil investment rating: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil investment rating: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil investment rating: ☆☆☆ [1] - Asphalt investment rating: ★★★ [1] Group 2: Core Views - International oil prices declined overnight, and the SC01 contract slightly fell during the day. Positive progress in the peace plan negotiation between the US and Russia and the potential meeting between the Ukrainian and US presidents led to a decline in geopolitical risks and oil prices. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward driving force for oil prices remains [2]. - Fuel oil prices continued to decline due to the drag from the cost side, with limited fundamental contradictions. For high-sulfur fuel oil, the geopolitical premium may decline due to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, but there is a risk of conflict escalation during the negotiation period, and short-term supply fluctuations may support prices. The high-sulfur cracking spread and monthly spread are expected to recover, but the medium-term loose pattern remains unchanged. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the supply in the Asia-Pacific region is still abundant, and the price is expected to weaken as the gasoline and diesel spread narrows [3]. - The shipment volume in East and South China has improved significantly recently. The inventory of sample refineries and traders has decreased month-on-month, and the de - stocking of overall commercial inventory has accelerated. The production plan for December has declined year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand will follow the seasonal decline rule. Refineries have a strong willingness to support prices, and the spot price has found support at 3000 yuan/ton, but BU still faces pressure in the medium and long term [4]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, and the SC01 contract had a slight intraday decline. Positive progress in the US - Russia peace plan negotiation and the potential meeting between the Ukrainian and US presidents led to a decline in geopolitical risks and oil prices. There are expectations of greater inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward driving force for oil prices remains. The near - term risk lies in whether Russia can accept the latest version of the peace plan [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices continued to decline due to cost - side drag, with limited fundamental contradictions. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the geopolitical premium may decline due to the peace talks, but there is a risk of conflict escalation during the negotiation period, and short - term supply fluctuations may support prices. The high - sulfur cracking spread and monthly spread are expected to recover, but the medium - term loose pattern remains unchanged. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply in the Asia - Pacific region is still abundant, and as the gasoline and diesel spread narrows due to the recovery of refinery operations, the low - sulfur price is expected to follow the downward trend [3]. Asphalt - The shipment volume in East and South China has improved recently. The inventory of sample refineries and traders has decreased month - on - month, and the de - stocking of overall commercial inventory has accelerated. The December production plan has declined year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand will decline seasonally. Refineries have a strong willingness to support prices, and the spot price has found support at 3000 yuan/ton, but BU still faces pressure in the medium and long term [4]

Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is mainly in a range-bound oscillation, with the demand being weak and the supply pressure gradually easing [2] - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate, with a generally loose fundamental situation but short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore types [3] - The coke market is likely to show a weak oscillation, with general coking profits and a continuous slight decline in daily production [4] - The coking coal market may experience a weak oscillation, with a slight decrease in production and a general terminal market [5] - The silicon manganese market has a downward shift in the expected bottom support, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee [6] - The ferrosilicon market has the bottom support strength facing a test, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee and a decline in export demand [7] Summary by Category Steel - The steel futures market oscillated today, with an improvement in the apparent demand for thread steel and a slight increase in the demand for hot-rolled coils [2] - The downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, and steel mills continue to operate at a loss, with a high possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the future [2] - The overall domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from their highs, with the spot prices remaining relatively firm [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated today, with a decline in global shipments but still stronger than the same period, and a rebound in domestic arrivals to a high for the year [3] - The demand for steel is at a low level, and ironmaking is in a seasonal production cut trend, with a slowdown in the production cut speed [3] - The iron ore fundamentals are generally loose, but some ore types may still experience short-term liquidity disturbances [3] Coke - The coke futures market oscillated today, with general coking profits and a continuous slight decline in daily production [4] - The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly, with the overall market supply being abundant [4] - The coke market is expected to show a weak oscillation, with attention paid to the impact of environmental protection policies [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market showed a weak oscillation today, with a slight decrease in production and a general terminal market [5] - The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased slightly, with the overall market supply being abundant [5] - The coking coal market is expected to experience a weak oscillation, with attention paid to the impact of environmental protection policies [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market oscillated today, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee and a decline in the expected power cost and chemical coke price [6] - The demand for silicon manganese is at a high level, and the inventory has increased slowly, with the overall market supply being abundant [6] - The silicon manganese market has a downward shift in the expected bottom support, with attention paid to the impact of policy changes [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures market oscillated today, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee and a decline in the expected power cost and blue coke price [7] - The export demand for ferrosilicon has declined, and the secondary demand has increased marginally, with the overall demand still showing resilience [7] - The ferrosilicon market has the bottom support strength facing a test, with attention paid to the impact of policy changes [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The prices of various soft commodities in the futures market show different trends, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their respective fundamentals [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures slightly declined today, and the spot sales basis of cotton was stable. New cotton cost provides support but also limits price increase, with short - term range - bound trading likely. Although new cotton production increased significantly this year, commercial inventory is not high and the sales progress is fast, which supports the futures price. As of November 20, the cumulative national processed lint cotton was 4.631 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.812 million tons and an increase of 1.512 million tons compared to the four - year average. As of November 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2043 million tons. The cotton yarn market had weak trading, with fewer new orders for spinning mills, a decline in the operating rate, and weavers making mainly rigid - demand purchases. High - count yarn prices were firm and trading was good. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased this year, the sugar - making ratio increased, compensating for the loss in sugar production, and sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand have gradually started sugarcane crushing, and due to good weather conditions, sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar futures were weak. In October, China's syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were relatively large, and there is still some pressure on the supply side. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. In Guangxi, rainfall in the third quarter was good, and the sugarcane vegetation index increased year - on - year. The sugar production in Guangxi for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be relatively good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Apple futures prices continued to rise. In the spot market, in Shandong, small and medium - sized apples were mainly traded, and other varieties had less trading. In the Northwest region, merchants packaged their own inventory for market supply, and the mainstream prices remained stable. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory for the new season was 7.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.73%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. This year, the quality of apples is poor, but the purchase price is high, and both traders and fruit farmers are reluctant to sell, which may affect the de - stocking speed. The future de - stocking situation is the main trading point. Overall, there is more divergence between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU) and 20 - rubber (NR) first declined and then rose, and the futures price of butadiene rubber (BR) increased. The domestic natural rubber price was stable with a slight decline, and the synthetic rubber spot price was stable. The port price of butadiene in the external market continued to rise, and the prices in the Thai raw material market varied. Globally, natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China is gradually entering the non - production season. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to rise, with some plants restarting and others starting or continuing maintenance. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants also continued to rise. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate declined due to some tire enterprises' maintenance, and the finished - product inventory of Shandong tire enterprises continued to increase. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 468,900 tons, with significant increases in both bonded and general trade inventories. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber increased to 17,000 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene increased significantly to 39,800 tons. Overall, demand continues to weaken, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, spot inventory is rising, cost support is strengthening, and market sentiment has improved. A rebound strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities such as NR and BR [6] Pulp - Pulp futures slightly declined today. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,300 yuan per ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,170 yuan per ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4,400 yuan per ton. As of November 20, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%, and a significant inventory increase for two consecutive weeks. The port inventory in China has been continuously increasing, the supply is still relatively loose, the demand for pulp remains weak, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. After the previous increase, the basis of pulp has significantly narrowed. Due to the overall weak fundamentals, the price has continuously declined after the basis convergence. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - Timber futures prices fluctuated. In the spot market, the mainstream prices remained stable. The external market prices are still high, and the domestic spot prices are weak, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level. The port outbound volume is maintained above 60,000 cubic meters, and demand supports the price. The total timber inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Overall, the low inventory provides some support for the price. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Hog: ★★★ [1] - Egg: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The agricultural product market shows complex trends with different factors influencing each product. Some products have clear trends and investment opportunities, while others lack short - term drivers and are recommended for a wait - and - see approach [2][3][6] - The market is affected by factors such as weather, supply and demand, trade policies, and international price fluctuations [3][4][6] Summary by Product Soybean - Domestic soybean futures are reducing positions and prices are回调. The new crop market features high - quality, high - price. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is fluctuating. Short - term focus is on the domestic spot market and policies, and medium - term on South American weather [2] - Imported soybeans are affected by US exports in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [2][4] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient and the crushing volume has increased. The inventory of soybean meal has reached a high level, and the supply is loose [3] - South American new - season soybeans are affected by La Nina, with slow planting progress. Wait for the new Sino - US trade agreement and look for buying opportunities after the回调 [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The marginal negative factors in the palm oil market have eased. The domestic palm oil basis has strengthened slightly, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has turned positive. Palm oil may see short - covering [4] - Soybean oil is affected by US soybean prices, with short - term focus on US exports and medium - term on South American weather [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures prices have risen slightly, mainly following the external market. Canadian rapeseed has high crushing demand but weak export demand. The import of Australian rapeseed has profit potential. The short - term driver for the rapeseed sector is not obvious, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [6] Corn - Corn futures have stopped rising. North - China corn prices are strong, while South - China corn has quality issues. The price difference between North and South is widening. The downstream inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [7] Hog - The number of breeding sows has decreased, which supports the long - term futures price. The spot price is weak. With the approaching of the winter demand season, there is also pressure from the second - fattening hog supply. The hog price may form a double - bottom pattern [8] Egg - Egg futures are increasing positions, and the far - month contracts are rising. The supply of new - laying hens is expected to decrease, and the number of old hens to be culled is large. The short - term near - month contracts will focus on the convergence of the spot - futures price difference [9]

| Millio | 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月26日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属偏强震荡，美国补发9月零售销售月率录得0.2%低于预期和前值，PPI基本符合预期，利率期货隐 含12月降息概率维持在80%以上。消息称乌克兰同意美国提出的和平协议条款、但一些细节仍未敲定，各方 将继续会谈。降息和地缘前景仍存不确定性，贵金属高位震荡等待方向性突破。明天美国感恩节假期，周初 初请失业金数据提前至今晚发布。 ★俄乌局势 -- 1美国官员称,乌克兰方面已原则同意美国提出的和平协议,但仍有一些条款需要讨论。乌 官员称，乌美已就日前在日内瓦讨论的和平协议核心条款达成共识。②泽连斯基：将继续与美国就和平计划 进行谈判。③特朗普：和平协议已非常接近达成，仅剩少数 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Methanol: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Styrene: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Plastic: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PVC: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PX: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PTA: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Glass: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical futures market shows a complex trend. Some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external market conditions, presenting different price trends such as consolidation, upward or downward movement [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different medium - and short - term outlooks. Some products are expected to be strong in the medium term, while others have limited medium - term rebound space or are in a state of range - bound consolidation [3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures are weakly consolidating around the 5 - day moving average. Tight supply in Shandong has pushed up prices, but downstream cost pressure may limit the upside [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures are in a bearish pattern. Stable domestic supply and weakening demand have led to poor market trading [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are volatile. Although there are factors such as potential supply improvement and rising prices, high arrival expectations and weakening demand may lead to range - bound consolidation [3] - Styrene futures are consolidating at a low level. Improved supply - demand structure and repaired profits may keep the short - term state, with limited upward momentum [3] Polyester - PX is expected to be weak in the short term but strong in the medium term due to factors such as weakened demand and potential supply decline from maintenance [5] - PTA is driven by cost, with expectations of improved processing margins. Ethylene glycol has short - term price rebounds but limited medium - term upside [5] - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle chip is mainly cost - driven with long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol's near - month contract is strong, and there are expectations of port destocking. It may be appropriate to go long unilaterally or do positive spreads on the month - to - month difference [6] - Urea prices may return to a stalemate. Although there is demand release, the oversupply situation is expected to continue [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC is in a volatile trend. With potential improvement in exports and cost support, it may follow cost changes [7] - Caustic soda is also volatile. High production and weak demand lead to a weak market, and attention should be paid to profit changes [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in a volatile trend. Although there is destocking, the long - term supply may exceed demand. Attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [8] - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and strong, with potential production line cold repairs and cost support [8]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.15%. Positive progress in US-Ukraine peace talks led to a decline in geopolitical risks and oil prices. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward driver of oil prices remains. The near-term risk is whether Russia can accept the latest version of the peace plan [2]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals oscillated. The US retail sales month-on-month rate in September was 0.2%, lower than expected and the previous value. PPI was basically in line with expectations. There is strong uncertainty in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices fluctuated greatly. The US ADP employment report showed a weak labor market. The probability of an interest rate cut in December is expected to rise above 80%. US copper exchange inventories have reached a record high. Codelco's premium for long-term refined copper contracts to East Asia is high. Pay attention to the increase in positions of Shanghai copper and the performance of the MA40 moving average after taking profits on previous long positions [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly. After the price correction, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices. Demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The macro sentiment has been fluctuating recently, and the industrial contradictions are limited. Shanghai aluminum is oscillating and adjusting after breaking below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, with support around 21,100 yuan [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remains at 20,700 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is still unclear. Industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts are at high levels, and cast aluminum alloy continues to fluctuate with aluminum prices [6]. Alumina - Alumina operating capacity is at a historical high, and industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts are rising. The supply surplus pattern is hard to change. Before large-scale production cuts occur, alumina will mainly operate weakly [7]. Zinc - Overseas funds have a strong control over the market. LME zinc warehouse receipts increased slightly to 48,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spot premium is as high as $120.77/ton. The domestic zinc mine supply is tightening, and the TC of domestic and overseas mines has been lowered. The bottom support of Shanghai zinc is strong, but the domestic demand outlook is under pressure. In the short term, there is no clear directional signal, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Lead - LME lead inventories are at a high level of 265,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month discount is $35.57/ton. The domestic fundamentals are neutral, and the trading sentiment of funds is weak. Track the dynamics of smelters and wait for low - buying opportunities [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The stainless steel cost support continues to decline. Although Shanghai nickel inventory has decreased slightly, the short - term contradiction lies in the macro level. Short on rebounds [10]. Tin - Overnight, tin prices oscillated at high levels. The short - term upward exploration sentiment of domestic and international tin prices remains. Short at high levels, holding short positions near 298,000 yuan [11]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price rebounded, and the market trading was active. The market total inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 118,000 tons. The futures price oscillates violently at high levels, and risk control should be the priority [12]. Industrial Silicon - The weekly operating rates of Xinjiang and Southwest production areas remained flat. The demand reduction plan of the silicone industry has a relatively limited impact on the overall supply - demand pattern. In the short term, industrial silicon futures will continue to oscillate [13]. Polysilicon - The spot price of N - type polysilicon feedstock remains in the narrow range of 49,600 - 54,900 yuan/ton. The short - term futures price is affected by both the "anti - involution" sentiment and its own fundamentals and will continue to oscillate [14]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - trading steel prices fell. The downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and steel mills continue to suffer losses. The supply pressure will gradually ease. The domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The spot price is relatively firm recently, and the futures price has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but the weak demand restricts the upside space [15]. Iron Ore - The iron ore overnight futures oscillated. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is in a seasonal decline trend. The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [16]. Coke - The intraday price oscillated. The coking profit is average, and the daily production is slightly decreasing. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures price may oscillate weakly [17]. Coking Coal - The intraday price oscillated weakly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly. The downstream demand has some resilience, and the steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures price may oscillate weakly [18]. Manganese Silicon - The intraday price oscillated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and chemical coke prices. The silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. The bottom support expectation has shifted downwards [19]. Silicon Iron - The intraday price oscillated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and blue carbon prices. The overall demand still has some resilience. The supply of silicon iron remains at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [20]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The possibility of resuming navigation in the Red Sea is increasing. Once new ships resume navigation, the far - month contracts will be under great pressure due to the significant surplus of shipping capacity. If the cargo volume continues to recover, there may be a price increase again in late December or early January [21]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The decline in international oil prices dragged down fuel oil prices overnight. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline, but it will still be supported by supply fluctuations in the short term. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is still abundant recently, and it is expected to weaken [22]. Asphalt - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening rule, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish for asphalt [23]. Group 4: Chemical Products Urea - The spot price of urea in the "Four Provinces" is stable with a slight decline, while the price in the Northeast continues to rise. The supply is abundant. The domestic oversupply pattern is expected to continue, and the price may return to a stalemate after the decline [24]. Methanol - The methanol futures price adjusted narrowly. The bullish expectation of overseas plant production cuts is gradually being realized, and the methanol valuation is low. However, the reality is still weak, and attention should be paid to the reduction intensity and duration of supply and market sentiment changes [25]. Pure Benzene - The domestic night - trading external crude oil price plummeted, and pure benzene operated weakly. The domestic arrival expectation is high, and the downstream demand is decreasing. Adopt the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [26]. Styrene - The output of styrene factories is expected to decrease slightly, and the downstream demand remains good. The supply - demand balance is tight, and the total inventory continues to decline, which supports the styrene price [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The propylene market lacks news guidance. The supply pressure of polyethylene increases. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly. The demand side is affected by the weak raw material prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm is limited [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC oscillated. The supply of PVC is high, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to cost - end changes. Caustic soda oscillated. The supply is under high pressure, and the downstream demand is insufficient. Caustic soda operates weakly [29]. PX and PTA - The short - term supply - demand of PX weakens, but it is expected to be strong in the medium term. PTA's processing margin is low, and the inventory accumulation expectation eases. Before the Spring Festival, it follows the cost - driven logic [30]. Ethylene Glycol - The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased. There is a short - term rebound expectation, but the inventory will accumulate around the Spring Festival, and the medium - term rebound space is limited [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - chip demand fades, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity. It is mainly cost - driven [32]. Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The glass intraday price oscillated. The profit is narrowing, and the cold - repair speed is accelerating. The demand is insufficient. The price is supported by cost, and the downside space is limited. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities and the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [33]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the Thai raw material market price decreased. The demand continues to weaken, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, and the inventory is increasing. RU is relatively strong, NR and BR are under observation, and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [34]. Soda Ash - The soda ash intraday price was weak. The industry continues to destock. The short - term focus is on the upstream cost fluctuations, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus. Pay attention to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [35]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is accumulating. The Brazilian and Argentine soybean production may be affected by the La Nina phenomenon. Wait for the end of the callback and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil continues to decline weakly, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is widening. The short - term palm oil supply - demand is weaker, and it is in the process of finding the bottom [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - With the arrival of Australian rapeseed in China, the market focuses on customs clearance, pressing yield, and policy details. The domestic rapeseed sector is recommended to be observed in the short term [38]. Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans fluctuate repeatedly. The policy side is still conducting auctions. The supply of high - protein domestic soybeans is tight. US soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [39]. Corn - The night - trading corn futures increased in positions and prices. The market is divided on the new - season corn output. The downstream corn inventory is very low. Pay attention to the replenishment situation after the price increase this week. Wait for the opportunity to short on highs [40]. Pig - The number of fertile sows decreased in October 2025. The spot pig price continues to decline weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing next year [41]. Egg - The number of newly - opened laying hens will start to decline continuously from around December. The supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to gradually ease in the medium - term. In the short term, it will still focus on the convergence of the futures - spot price difference [42]. Cotton - US cotton rose slightly. The domestic cotton spot sales basis is stable. The new - cotton cost supports the price but also limits the upside. The cotton commercial inventory is not high, and the sales progress is fast. The pure - cotton yarn market trading is weak. Temporarily observe [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The international market supply is relatively abundant, and US sugar faces upward pressure. In China, the market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate. The production expectation of Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season is relatively good [44]. Apple - The futures price oscillates at a high level. The spot price is strong. The short - term price trend is strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the far - month contracts may face inventory pressure. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [45]. Wood - The futures price oscillates. The low inventory supports the price. Temporarily observe [46]. Pulp - The pulp futures price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory has increased continuously, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. Temporarily observe [46]. Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares rose strongly yesterday, and all major futures index contracts rose. The macro - liquidity suppression has temporarily eased, and risk assets have a corrective rebound. The market currently focuses on the interaction between geopolitical situations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [47]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the market trading became冷清. Policy games and institutional behaviors are still key variables. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the range. Operate with caution [48].