黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-04 基本面弱平衡，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：基本面弱平衡，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3137元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3319元/吨。现货方面，全国建材成交89788吨。 供需与逻辑：供应端，数据显示成材产量库存下降，需求表现尚可。板材数据产量库存数据回升，需求端稍弱。 当前基本面矛盾不突出，换月完成，宏观预期上升市场交易地位，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变化 对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储行情启动情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场观望为主，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日，双焦期货市场呈现涨跌分化态势，焦煤主力合约价格回调，焦炭主力合约延续上涨行情。进 口蒙煤市场表现平淡，贸易商情绪谨慎，市场活跃度一般，交投氛围冷清。 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏弱运行，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘799.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅 下跌、成交氛围略显平淡，供需呈现宽松态势，采购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交119.1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No core viewpoint is explicitly provided in the given content. The report mainly presents daily data on index option trading, including option volume, PCR, and VIX. 3. Summary by Directory I. Option Volume - On December 2, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 596,600 contracts; that of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options was 693,200 contracts; that of Shanghai Stock Exchange 500 ETF options was 872,500 contracts; that of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 62,700 contracts; that of GEM ETF options was 1,146,500 contracts; that of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 16,900 contracts; that of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 index options was 86,800 contracts; and that of CSI 1000 options was 143,500 contracts [1]. - The table also shows the call volume, put volume, and total volume of various index ETF options on the same day, such as 207,100 call contracts and 224,200 put contracts for Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options, with a total volume of 431,300 contracts [18]. II. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.87, with a month - on - month change of +0.16; the position PCR was 1.01, with a month - on - month change of - 0.03. Similar data are provided for other types of options, like the turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 0.98, with a month - on - month change of +0.16; the position PCR was 1.12, with a month - on - month change of - 0.05 [2]. - A table summarizes the turnover PCR, month - on - month change, position PCR, and month - on - month change of various index ETF options [32]. III. Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 14.01%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.06%; the VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 15.40%, with a month - on - month change of +0.06%. Similar data are presented for other options, such as the VIX of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 19.91%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.40% [3]. - A table provides the VIX and month - on - month change values of various index ETF options [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas gasoline supply is gradually recovering, leading to significant short-term arrival pressure on pure benzene, with an accelerated accumulation rate of port inventory. Downstream operations remain at a low level during the off - season. Styrene is under maintenance with low - load operations, CPL operations decline from a low level, and the operations of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid increase slightly, but terminal demand is still weak [3] - The port basis of styrene has strengthened again. Although the port inventory did not continue to decrease, there is still arrival pressure. However, downstream enterprises have made speculative purchases, and their persistence needs attention. Styrene is still in a low - operation stage during maintenance, and the resumption plan has been postponed. During the off - season, downstream operations remain at a low level. The operations of EPS, which is seasonally obvious, continue to decline, the operations of PS rebound but there is still inventory pressure, and the finished - product inventory pressure of ABS remains high while the operations are maintained at a low level [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 119 yuan/ton (+16), the spot - M2 spread is - 140 yuan/ton (+10), and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts is not given in specific data. Relevant figures include the main basis and futures price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts [1][8][13] - Styrene: The main basis is 51 yuan/ton (+0), and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts is not given in specific data. Relevant figures include the main contract trend and basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts [1][16][17] II. Production Profits and Domestic - foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 102 dollars/ton (+4), the FOB Korea processing fee is 92 dollars/ton (+6), the US - Korea spread is 169.8 dollars/ton (-1), and there are also data on import profits. Relevant figures include naphtha processing fee, FOB Korea - CFR Japan spread, FOB US Gulf - FOB Korea spread, FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread, and import profit [1][20][23] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 161 yuan/ton (+2), and the expected profit is gradually shrinking. There are also data on import profits. Relevant figures include non - integrated device production profit, FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread, and import profit [1][23][33] III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 22.40 tons (+6.00 tons), and the operating rate is not given in specific change data. Relevant figures include East China port inventory and operating rate [1][37] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 160,600 tons (-3,600 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 96,400 tons (+2,200 tons), and the operating rate is 67.3% (-1.7%). Relevant figures include East China port inventory, operating rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [1][39][42] IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 1 yuan/ton (-15), and the operating rate is 54.75% (-1.52%) [2][48] - PS: The production profit is - 99 yuan/ton (-15), and the operating rate is 57.60% (+1.70%) [2][50] - ABS: The production profit is - 600 yuan/ton (-48), and the operating rate is 71.20% (-1.20%) [2][54] V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 635 yuan/ton (-15), and the operating rate is 86.68% (-1.54%) [1][57] - Phenol - ketone: The production profit is - 602 yuan/ton (+0), and relevant figures show the operating rate and production profit [1][57] - Aniline: The production profit is 753 yuan/ton (+254), and the operating rate is 77.19% (+1.51%) [1][64] - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1252 yuan/ton (+12), and the operating rate is 59.40% (+3.90%) [1][64]

流动性日报 | 2025-12-03 市场流动性概况 2025-12-02，股指板块成交4594.06亿元，较上一交易日变动-12.06%；持仓金额12492.16亿元，较上一交易日变动 -2.55%；成交持仓比为36.64%。 国债板块成交3546.25亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.35%；持仓金额7321.96亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.43%；成交 持仓比为48.03%。 基本金属板块成交4120.38亿元，较上一交易日变动-25.45%；持仓金额6399.35亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.19%； 成交持仓比为63.73%。 贵金属板块成交10654.04亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.58%；持仓金额4895.88亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.43%；成 交持仓比为336.55%。 能源化工板块成交3828.59亿元，较上一交易日变动-11.77%；持仓金额4633.38亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.68%； 成交持仓比为74.19%。 农产品板块成交2924.01亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.61%；持仓金额6103.69亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.53%；成交 持仓比为45.19%。 黑色建材板块成交189 ...

Market Analysis - Trump plans to announce the next Fed Chair nominee in early 2026, and Nick Timiraos suggests Hassett is the "pre - selected" candidate [1] - Trump implies that the US military will soon launch land - based attacks on drug - trafficking groups in Venezuela, raising concerns about a potential military conflict [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On December 2, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 964.82 yuan/gram, closed at 958.42 yuan/gram, down 0.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closing price was 953.82 yuan/gram, down 0.48% from the afternoon closing price [2] - On December 2, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 13,303.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 13,423.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.09% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 2,464,589 lots, and the open interest was 459,321 lots. The night - session closing price was 13,640 yuan/kilogram, up 1.62% from the afternoon closing price [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 2, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.088%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.58%, up 1.81 BP from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes - On December 2, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, long positions increased by 297 lots, and short positions decreased by 858 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 386,313 lots, down 8.54% from the previous trading day [4] - In the Ag2602 contract, long positions decreased by 15,909 lots, and short positions decreased by 11,096 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts was 3,427,760 lots, down 5.29% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,050.01 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,802 tons, an increase of 191 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 2, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 6.32 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1,537.54 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of SHFE gold and silver was about 71.40, down 1.58% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 74.00, down 0.82% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On December 2, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 45,456 kilograms, down 25.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 894,348 kilograms, down 44.07% from the previous trading day [7] - The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Market risk sentiment is rising, and the Fed Chair nominee determination may strengthen the safe - haven sentiment. The Au2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 930 yuan/gram and 980 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Neutral. Tight spot supply and macro - easing expectations make silver slightly stronger than gold. The Ag2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,300 yuan/kilogram and 13,900 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Go long on the gold - silver ratio at low levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the copper price is in a high - level shock. Although the CSPT group's plan to cut production by 10% pushed up the copper price, if smelters actually cut production next year, it may ease the shortage of ore supply to some extent. The resumption of production at the Kamoa smelter increases the pressure on the raw material end, so copper is likely to be in a state where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to continue to use buy - on - dips hedging as the main strategy [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 2, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 89,410 yuan/ton and closed at 88,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.40% compared with the previous trading day's closing. The night - session main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 89,100 yuan/ton and closed at 88,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared with the afternoon closing [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot quotation of SMM electrolytic copper was at a premium of 20 - 220 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan compared with the previous day. The price range of 1 copper was 88,430 - 88,890 yuan/ton. The market procurement sentiment slightly recovered, but holders maintained high prices due to limited available supplies. The import loss widened to 1,400 yuan/ton. It is expected that the spot market will continue the stalemate under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the price support remains strong [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: US President Trump plans to announce the next Fed Chairman in early 2026, and it is reported that he has "pre - selected" White House National Economic Council Director Hassett. Trump hinted that the US military will soon start land - based strikes against drug - trafficking groups in Venezuela and other regions, which has raised market concerns about a possible US military conflict with Venezuela [3]. - **Mine End**: The South Australian government has selected the Mullaquana Station near Whyalla as the preferred site for the northern seawater desalination project, which is a key infrastructure for BHP's long - term copper strategy. Two consortia have entered the final bidding stage. BHP is the main purchaser [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: Goldman Sachs pointed out at the CESCO Asian Copper Conference that China's copper demand has decreased by 8% year - on - year, while demand in Europe and the US has changed by - 2% and +1% respectively. It is expected that in 2026, refined copper supply will increase by 1.8% and demand will increase by 2%, resulting in a supply surplus of 180,000 tons. AI data centers and energy storage systems have limited impact on copper demand, with demand increments of about 300,000 tons and 50,000 tons respectively in 2026. Tariff policies are a key variable. If the US imposes a 15% tariff, the surplus will flow to the US, causing LME inventories to tighten [4]. - **Consumption**: During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the demand for copper in various terminal fields shows structural differentiation. The power sector is the ballast stone of demand, and wind power, photovoltaic, and energy storage construction will bring significant increments. The construction sector has entered the stock era, and urban renewal, green buildings, and smart homes are new growth points. The transportation sector's electrification transformation is deepening, and new energy vehicles and charging facilities are booming. The home appliance industry benefits from energy - efficiency upgrades and export expansion, and the electronics sector is the fastest - growing field. In 2026, copper demand may only show a slight increase due to a short - term decline in the photovoltaic sector and relatively sluggish real - estate demand [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 161,800 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 927 tons to 30,568 tons. On December 1, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 159,000 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons compared with the previous week [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - PVC shows a narrow - range fluctuation with overall weak supply - demand. Its price is affected by factors such as new capacity, downstream demand, and export situation. The market should focus on subsequent device maintenance and macro - sentiment [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Supply increases due to device maintenance recovery and new capacity, while demand weakens, especially in the non - aluminum sector. The market should pay attention to capacity release and demand changes [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,575 yuan/ton (+22), the East China basis is - 85 yuan/ton (-22), and the South China basis is - 55 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,490 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,520 yuan/ton (+20) [1] - Upstream production profit: The price of semi - coke is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 50 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 881 yuan/ton (-33), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 465 yuan/ton (+51), and the PVC export profit is - 9.4 US dollars/ton (-0.3) [1] - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 32.3 million tons (+0.7), the social PVC inventory is 52.8 million tons (+0.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 82.21% (+2.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 71.12% (-0.19%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 78.85% (+1.37%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.0 million tons (-0.7) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,211 yuan/ton (-1), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 70 yuan/ton (+1) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 730 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,200 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,260 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 616.3 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 365.71 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 580.52 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 46.98 million tons (+4.22), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.27 million tons (+0.18), and the caustic soda operation rate is 85.00% (+0.40%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 86.06% (+0.60%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 65.52% (-1.03%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 91.29% (+1.20%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting has a certain boost to the sentiment of bulk commodities. There is no new device maintenance this week, but some enterprises consider production cuts due to low prices. New capacity is gradually being put into production, and the supply is abundant. The downstream operation rate decreases slightly, and the procurement sentiment is general. The export window is open, but the anti - dumping investigation of PVC wallpapers may affect the export of PVC products [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases due to the recovery of device maintenance and new capacity. The demand from the alumina side is affected, and the non - aluminum demand weakens. The expected production of alumina factories in Guangxi has uncertainty, and the ongoing caustic soda bidding may support the subsequent spot price [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Narrow - range fluctuation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral, and BR is also rated neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the end of rain in southern Thailand in early December requires further assessment of flood impacts. Domestic rubber inventories are increasing, with supply from Thailand to increase, and the supply - demand structure may widen the spread between RU and NR. For BR, the recent price rebound is driven by butadiene, but the support is limited, and the supply is expected to increase while downstream demand is weak [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,360 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,230 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,685 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - number standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; Indonesian 20 - number standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price was 10,600 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price was 10,400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports in the first 10 months of 2025 reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, and the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire exports reached 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, and the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, automobile tire exports were 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [2] - In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - After centralized maintenance in October, some enterprises still had maintenance and production reduction in November, and the phenomenon may continue in December, dragging down overall production [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; smoked sheet rubber exports were 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; latex exports were 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; smoked sheet rubber exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] - In October, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the cumulative retail volume was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On December 2, 2025, the RU basis was - 410 yuan/ton (- 10), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 780 yuan/ton (+ 80), the NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (- 53.00); whole latex was 14,950 yuan/ton (+ 100), mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton (+ 30), 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 50). STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (+ 0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 300 yuan/ton (+ 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,580 yuan/ton (- 170) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 59.55 baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai latex was 55.50 baht/kg (- 0.50), Thai cup lump was 52.95 baht/kg (+ 0.85), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.05 baht/kg (- 0.15) [5] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.75% (+ 0.71%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 66.00% (- 3.36%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 481,562 tons (+ 12,685), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,079,708 tons (+ 17,827), the RU futures inventory was 41,400 tons (+ 1,800), and the NR futures inventory was 51,307 tons (+ 1,108) [6] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On December 2, 2025, the BR basis was - 385 yuan/ton (- 275), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,100 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton (+ 200), the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 10,400 yuan/ton (+ 150), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,100 yuan/ton (+ 200), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,282 yuan/ton (+ 100) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 70.19% (- 2.45%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,540 tons (+ 660), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,900 tons (+ 270) [9] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The impact of floods in southern Thailand needs further assessment, domestic inventories are increasing, demand is weak, and the supply - demand structure may widen the spread between RU and NR. For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The price rebound is driven by butadiene, but the support is limited, supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weak [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maersk plans to increase prices in the second half of December, and the implementation of the price increase should be monitored [1]. - The delivery settlement price of the December contract is gradually becoming clear, and the price in the first half of December has been continuously revised downward [3]. - There may be a significant expected difference in the February 2026 contract, and its delivery settlement price will basically reflect the spot price center at the end of January [4]. - The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, which may increase the effective shipping capacity supply and suppress freight rates [5]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries [6]. - For trading strategies, the December contract is expected to fluctuate, and the February contract is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias; there is currently no arbitrage strategy [7]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Futures Prices - As of December 2, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 67,239 lots, and the daily trading volume was 29,045 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1534.20, 1072.10, 1233.20, 1374.90, 1032.60, and 1633.60 respectively [5]. II. Spot Prices - On November 28, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1404 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 1632 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 2428 US dollars/FEU. On December 1, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1483.65 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 948.77 points [5]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the average weekly capacity was 303,900 TEU, and in January, it was 332,400 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in December and 4 TBNs in January, all from the OA Alliance. Maersk added a new sailing ship, MAERSK EINDHOVEN (13,092 TEU), in Week 51 [3]. - As of November 29, 2025, 243 container ships with a total capacity of 1.985 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 74 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 1.1185 million TEU) and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (total 253,800 TEU) had been delivered [6]. IV. Supply Chain - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched a Cape of Good Hope network due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea. There is currently no specific time to change the east - west route of the Gemini to pass through the Red Sea [2]. - The cease - fire mediation plan for Gaza is advancing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume navigation in 2026, which will increase the effective shipping capacity supply and suppress freight rates [5]. V. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery settlement price of the EC2602 contract will basically reflect the spot price center at the end of January [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. With significant commissioning pressure and increased port inventory, the liquidity of goods in the market has increased. However, the price of ethylene glycol has dropped to a near-two-year low, and the negative feedback from high-cost devices has gradually emerged, alleviating the inventory accumulation pressure [3] Core Viewpoint - The main port continues to accumulate inventory, leading to a decline in the price of ethylene glycol (EG). The supply side shows a decline in domestic ethylene glycol load, while overseas device changes are limited. The demand side has marginal weakening orders despite the support from the polyester load at a low inventory level [1][2] Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,877 yuan/ton (a change of -5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.13%), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,876 yuan/ton (a change of -21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.54%). The spot basis of EG in East China was 1 yuan/ton (a decrease of -3 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene-based EG was -$63/ton (a month-on-month increase of $1/ton), and the production gross profit of coal-based syngas EG was -1,016 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 27 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No relevant data provided Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - No relevant data provided Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 753,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 21,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 708,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 75,000 tons). According to CCF data, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 111,000 tons, and the arrivals at the auxiliary ports were 14,000 tons; this week, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 161,000 tons, and the arrivals at the auxiliary ports are 41,000 tons, which is relatively high overall, and the main ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory [2]