Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Report Core Views - Yesterday, the main soybean futures contract showed a slight increase. The new - season soybean market in the Northeast region is stable. Farmers' limited remaining grain and strong reluctance to sell support prices. However, the trading activity in the trade link is low, and short - term prices are expected to remain stable [1][2] - Yesterday, the main peanut futures contract ended higher. The peanut market has regional strength - weakness differentiation. The Northeast region has high prices due to normal listing and good quality, while the Henan region faces price pressure from oil mills. High prices suppress consumption, and the supply in the Northeast has increased [4] Group 3: Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures - The closing price of the soybeans 2601 contract yesterday was 4106.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day [1] Spot - The spot basis of edible soybeans was A01 - 6, down 12 (-32.14%) from the previous day. The prices in major markets in Heilongjiang remained unchanged from the previous day [1] Group 4: Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures - The closing price of the peanuts 2601 contract yesterday was 8186.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan/ton (+0.12%) from the previous day [3] Spot - The average spot price of peanuts was 8210.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan/ton (-0.36%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK01 - 1186.00, up 10.00 (+0.85%) month - on - month. The average price of general peanuts in the national market was 4.12 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. The contract purchase price of oil - mill peanut kernels decreased steadily, and the arrival volume was average [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly provided in the report Core View - The fundamentals of the zinc market are turning positive, with low LME inventory levels, high overseas premiums, and a continuously open Chinese export window. Domestic social inventory is declining, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease in the future. The current zinc valuation is low, and there is optimism about future consumption despite some fluctuations in the US December interest - rate cut expectations [4] Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $163.36 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,450 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 50 yuan per ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,410 yuan per ton, up 70 yuan, with a spot premium of - 20 yuan per ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,390 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On November 27, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,480 yuan per ton, closed at 22,415 yuan per ton, down 55 yuan. The trading volume was 114,645 lots, and the open interest was 101,749 lots. The highest price was 22,565 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,410 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 148,100 tons, down 2,900 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 50,800 tons, up 875 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The fundamentals are favorable. Although LME inventory is rising, the absolute level is low, overseas premiums are high, and the Chinese export window is open. Domestic social inventory is decreasing, and the number of warehouse receipts is falling. Despite low downstream procurement enthusiasm, spot premiums are stable due to low arrivals. TC prices are falling at home and abroad, and smelting costs are facing losses, which may lead to reduced supply - side pressure in the future [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish [5] - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views - **Cotton**: The 11th USDA report adjustment is significantly bearish for the market. The short - term external market is expected to be under pressure, while the domestic market has limited upside and downside in the short - term. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be optimistic after the seasonal pressure [2][3]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar production surplus pattern suppresses the market. The short - term fundamental driving force is downward, but there may be a weak rebound. The medium - to - long - term domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price may hit new lows [6][7]. - **Pulp**: The pulp supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: The cotton 2601 futures contract closed at 13,640 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,716 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,891 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. In October, Bangladesh's cotton imports were about 110,000 tons, a 27.5% month - on - month and 26.0% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative imports in the 2025/26 season were about 396,000 tons, a 11% year - on - year decrease [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the USDA report increased the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season, leading to an increase in ending stocks and a shift from destocking to stockpiling. The sales pressure of US cotton has increased significantly. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded due to the decrease in the expected new cotton yield and the increase in the purchase price of seed cotton. However, there is strong hedging pressure, and the downstream demand is weak [2]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short - term, the cotton price has limited upside and downside. In the long - term, the cotton price is expected to be optimistic after the seasonal pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [3]. Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: The sugar 2601 futures contract closed at 5,403 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (+0.45%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,455 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. The consulting firm StoneX predicted that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season would be 41.5 million tons, a 3.3% increase from the 2025/26 season [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price closed higher in a volatile manner. The supply in Brazil in the second half of October was strong, and the sugar production in India in the 25/26 season is expected to rebound significantly. The short - term export of Indian sugar is difficult to increase, and the supply pressure in the later stage of the Brazilian season is gradually weakening. The latest import volume of sugar and syrup in China is higher than expected, and the short - term supply pressure is increasing [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term fundamental driving force is downward, but the valuation is low, and there may be a weak rebound. The medium - to - long - term domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price may hit new lows [7]. Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: The pulp 2601 futures contract closed at 5,184 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.46%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,425 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,925 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The price of imported softwood pulp decreased, while the prices of imported hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp were stable [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price was weakly sorted. The European pulp port inventory decreased in September but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected. The demand in Europe and the United States was weak, and the domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price. Although there was a large amount of finished paper production capacity put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mill's raw material procurement was cautious [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [9].

Report Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On Hold [8] - Options: Short Put [8] Core View - Recently, due to fluctuations in the market's expectations of the Fed's December interest rate cut and geopolitical factors in some regions, copper prices have declined. However, as copper prices fall, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased. With more price-fixing by downstream enterprises, some short-hedging positions in the processing end have been closed, providing support for copper prices at the 85,000 yuan/ton level. Currently, one can buy for hedging at the 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton level and sell for hedging above 89,000 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On November 27, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 87,200 yuan/ton and closed at 86,990 yuan/ton, a 0.46% change from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 86,800 yuan/ton and closed at 87,050 yuan/ton, a 0.02% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the 2512 contract was 10 - 200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 105 yuan/ton, a 25 yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The price range of electrolytic copper was 86,910 - 87,260 yuan/ton. Import losses widened to over a thousand yuan, market trading became lighter, and both procurement and sales intentions declined. Due to copper prices returning to around 87,000 yuan/ton and month-end settlement factors, downstream procurement slowed. Supplies of Jinchuan and Guixi decreased, and some holders quoted a premium of 200 yuan/ton. Shanghai Jintun large plates with a premium of around 150 yuan/ton were quickly traded, indicating a tight supply of high-quality copper. The trading of flat copper was average with regional differences. As it entered the end of the month, there was still a demand for current-month invoices, and the trading of next-month invoices might be relatively dull [2]. - **Important Information Summary**: Geopolitically, Russian President Putin said that a US delegation will visit Moscow next week. He reiterated that Russia generally agrees to use the US list for resolving the Ukraine issue as the basis for future negotiations. He also stated that if the Ukrainian armed forces withdraw from the areas they currently control, Russia will stop military operations; otherwise, Russia will use military means to achieve its goals. In terms of interest rates, the European Central Bank released its October meeting minutes, explaining the reasons for keeping rates unchanged at that meeting, strengthening the market's expectation that the current interest rate cut cycle has ended. European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks said that given that inflation in the eurozone may still be higher than expected, it is too early to discuss another interest rate cut [3]. Supply Side - **Mine End**: On November 26, the Canadian government launched a national security review of the proposed merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources. The review will focus on the impact of the transaction on key minerals and related supply chains. Copper is considered a key mineral in Canada. Teck Resources and Anglo American have promised to invest approximately C$4.5 billion over five years, but most of this (including the expansion project of the Highland Valley copper mine) was previously announced by Teck Resources. Anglo American also proposed to move its global headquarters from London to Vancouver and rename itself "Anglo Teck." Market insiders said that Canada still wants Anglo American to further relocate its headquarters to Canada [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) Secretary-General Paul White said at the 2025 Asian World Copper Conference on November 27 that the global copper market will face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. Global copper mine production is expected to increase by 2.3% in 2026, while global apparent refined copper consumption is expected to increase by 2.1% in the coming year. White also said that the copper production growth rate is expected to slow to 0.9% in 2026, compared with a 3.4% growth rate expected in 2025. These data are consistent with the ICSG's previous forecast in its October statement. On November 26, Chilean copper giant Codelco made a record-high offer to Chinese copper buyers, causing some Chinese enterprises to announce that they will abandon next year's long-term contracts. The applicability of this benchmark offer to Chinese buyers has also raised more and more questions. According to three informed sources, Codelco's offer to Chinese buyers is $350 per ton higher than the LME price, a significant increase from the $89 per ton negotiated last year. This offer is a "take it or leave it" final proposal, and buyers are expected to make decisions starting next week [5]. Demand Side - **Consumption**: According to customs data, in October, China imported 1,155.1 tons of copper tubes, a 41.31% month-on-month increase and an 8.37% year-on-year decrease; the cumulative import volume was 15,585.2 tons, a 10.77% cumulative year-on-year decrease. In October, China exported 25,287.9 tons of copper tubes, a 2.33% month-on-month decrease and an 18.57% year-on-year decrease; the cumulative export volume was 309,326.6 tons, a 0.16% cumulative year-on-year increase [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 75.00 tons to 157,175 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons. On November 27, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 173,500 tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons compared with the previous week [7]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously Bullish. Currently, one can buy for hedging at the 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton level and sell for hedging above 89,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Arbitrage**: On Hold [8] - **Options**: Short Put [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy for the lead market is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead ore is continuously tight, and the processing fee remains low. The operating rates of primary and secondary lead are both at low levels, resulting in limited supply pressure. The consumption side remains stable, with no strong recovery signals. Due to the impact of large orders in the market, the lead price once dropped significantly. In this situation, it is recommended to mainly short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$40.08/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day to 16,900 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 27, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,060 yuan/ton and closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 57,305 lots, an increase of 17,118 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 48,129 lots, a decrease of 904 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 17,075 yuan/ton and a minimum of 15,885 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,990 yuan/ton and closed at 16,980 yuan/ton, a 0.47% increase from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On November 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 264,175 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 116,920 yuan/ton and closed at 116,900 yuan/ton, a change of -0.53% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,221 (-79,345) lots, and the open interest was 127,765 (-503) lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a slight oscillating downward trend, failing to continue the rebound of the previous few days. The price closed below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, with a bearish technical outlook. After the macro - positive sentiment faded, the nickel price returned to the fundamental market [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and the nickel ore price remained stable. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders for shipment, and the shipping efficiency was okay. The downstream ferronickel price was weak, and the iron - making plants' profits were affected. They were cautious in purchasing nickel ore, and some plants had the intention to cut production to stop losses. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (phase one) was expected to drop by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade premium was in the range of +25 - 26, and there was room for it to decline due to the falling ferronickel price [1]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 121,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The overall spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were adjusted downwards. Jinchuan nickel's premium remained at 4,650 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,548 (-396) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,450 (+930) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Strategy - With high inventories and an oversupply situation remaining unchanged, the nickel price was expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the current price was at a 5 - year low, and the downward space was limited. The recommended strategy was to focus on range trading, and there were no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of stainless steel opened at 12,435 yuan/ton and closed at 12,410 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 126,697 (-24,902) lots, and the open interest was 122,062 (-4,171) lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract showed a slight oscillating downward trend, and its price movement basically followed that of Shanghai nickel. The stainless - steel fundamentals were still weak. The social inventory increased this week, rising 0.64% compared to last week to 946,000 tons. After the macro - positive factors were exhausted, the price was expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [3]. - Earlier this week, the trading volume improved due to the price rebound, but it weakened again yesterday when the price dropped. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 325 - 525 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 883.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuous downward shift in the cost center, stainless steel was expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The current price was at a 5 - year low, and the downward space was limited. The recommended strategy was neutral, and there were no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red dates: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Apple: The current inventory and inventory structure expectations are reflected in the price. Future focus should be on terminal market consumption recovery, the impact of inventory structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchants' inventory transfer dynamics. Caution is needed when chasing high prices [4]. - Red dates: If the terminal market can accept and digest the current high - priced new - season spot in the production area, it will drive the futures price to return to the new - season spot price. Otherwise, if the high - priced new - season spot leads to continuous inventory backlog in the circulation link and the supply - demand contradiction is not effectively alleviated, the new - season spot price may continue to fall and approach the futures price. The near - month contract may still have some downward space [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract was 9,529 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.02% [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji apples in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 2,029, a change of + 2 from the previous day. The price of over - 70 semi - commercial late - Fuji apples in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 1,229, a change of + 2 from the previous day [1]. Recent Market News - The trading atmosphere of late - Fuji stored apples is dull. In the western production areas, merchants are sporadically looking for goods, mainly focusing on farmers' two - grade goods, with limited transactions. Some merchants are packaging their self - stored goods to replenish the market. In the Shandong production area, there is sporadic outbound inventory, mainly small fruits for foreign - trade channels. The ground transactions are basically over. The market is in a seasonal off - season, with weak terminal consumption and low enthusiasm among merchants for purchasing. It is expected that today's transactions will remain dull and prices will be stable [2]. Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated. The prices of late - Fuji apples in major production areas such as Shandong Qixia and Shaanxi Luochuan remained stable, with price differences among different specifications. The current market is in a seasonal off - season, with a dull trading atmosphere for late - Fuji stored apples. The outbound volume in each production area is limited, and transactions are light. Merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing is low. Last week, the new - season late - Fuji apple storage work in the production areas was basically completed. The purchase price was high during the acquisition stage, and the storage volume was more than 10% lower than the same period last year, which is different from some market expectations. The proportion of fruit farmers' storage is large, and the proportion of high - quality goods in the storage structure has decreased, while the proportion of poor - quality goods has increased. The outbound work has started recently, and the sales area market is in an off - season. Affected by high prices and other factors, consumption is mainly based on on - demand purchases, and the overall rhythm is a bit slow. The demand side is under pressure, and the trading atmosphere is still dull. The increasing supply of citrus fruits is squeezing the apple sales space [3]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Comprehensive consideration shows that the current expectations of storage volume and storage structure are reflected in the price. Future attention should be paid to the recovery of terminal market consumption, the impact of inventory structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchants' inventory transfer dynamics. Caution is needed when chasing high prices [4]. Red Dates Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract was 9,150 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.11% [5]. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.70 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.20 yuan/kg from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was - 450, a change of - 190 from the previous day [5]. Recent Market News - Currently, the acquisition progress of grey jujubes in the Xinjiang production area is about 50%, and the transfer volume of goods rights is about 30% - 40% of the total output. The prices in the production area are weakly stable. The acquisition progress in Aksu and Alar areas is relatively fast, with the acquired goods being gradually packed and shipped. The acquisition progress is slow in Kashgar. The acquisition in Ruoqiang, Hotan, and Qiemo areas has ended. The raw material acquisition in the production area is priced according to quality, adhering to the principle of high - quality and high - price. Enterprises' enthusiasm for acquisition is average. On November 26, there was a small amount of goods arriving at the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, and the trading was mainly of new - season goods. The new - season jujubes were gradually processed after being harvested. The price difference of new - season goods was large due to cost and origin quality. Downstream merchants made on - demand purchases. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 7 vehicles of goods arrived, and the prices were stable. The quality of the arriving goods was uneven, with a large price difference. The market acceptance of ordinary goods was poor, and downstream merchants made on - demand purchases, with average morning transactions. The supply of new - season goods in the Hebei sales area market has increased, and downstream merchants are waiting and making on - demand purchases based on the new - season prices. It is expected that the spot price will be weakly stable in the short term [6][7]. Market Analysis - The red - date futures price fell slightly yesterday. The acquisition progress in the Xinjiang production area varies, and prices are weakly stable, with high - quality goods having high prices. The supply of new - season goods in the sales area market has increased, but the quality of the arriving goods is uneven, with a large price difference. Downstream merchants make on - demand purchases, and transactions are average. Currently, red dates are at a critical period of switching between the off - season and peak season and the "alternation of new and old seasons". The grey jujubes in the main Xinjiang production area are being harvested, and the orchard - ordering process is accelerating. The prices have been falling recently. Old - season goods are the main trading items in the market, and the market acceptance of new - season goods is average. The enthusiasm of merchants in the production area for purchasing new - season goods is low, and the expected selling price of jujube farmers has decreased. The inventory of 36 sample points has slightly increased. A large amount of new - season goods will be listed soon, and with the co - existence of new and old seasons, the inventory pressure is high, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The market's future expectations are relatively pessimistic. As the weather gets colder, red dates enter the consumption peak season, and the actual consumption situation on the consumer side will become the focus of the market [8]. Strategy - Neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the current high - priced new - season spot in the production area, it will drive the futures price to return to the new - season spot price. Otherwise, if the high - priced new - season spot leads to continuous inventory backlog in the circulation link and the supply - demand contradiction is not effectively alleviated, the new - season spot price may continue to fall and approach the futures price. According to the 2025 modification of the red - date delivery rules by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, old - season red dates can still participate in delivery and the cost is lower than that of new - season red dates. Therefore, the near - month contract may still have some downward space [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The market maintains a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia-Ukraine situation. The crude oil price shows a weak and volatile pattern, and the expectation of oversupply in the medium - term oil market is gradually being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical sentiment premium may further subside, which will put some pressure on the unilateral price of fuel oil. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation, short - term market fluctuations caused by news should be noted [1]. - The overall market contradictions of fuel oil itself are relatively limited. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakens again after a slight repair. The market supply is still relatively abundant, but the refinery production willingness is restricted due to the relatively low valuation of low - sulfur oil compared to gasoline and diesel, so there is still support at the bottom of the market. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has weakened recently, and the support at the bottom of the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The future development of the Russia - Ukraine situation will also affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flow [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.82% at 2,471 yuan/ton in the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1% at 3,033 yuan/ton [1]. - The crude oil price is in a weak and volatile state. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached, the geopolitical premium may decline, and the falling oil price will suppress the unilateral price of fuel oil. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation, short - term market fluctuations caused by news should be noted [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the market structure weakens again after a slight repair. The supply is abundant, and the Azur refinery is expected to resume production soon, with Kuwait's exports expected to gradually recover. However, due to the relatively low valuation compared to gasoline and diesel, the refinery production willingness is restricted, and there is still support at the bottom of the market [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has weakened recently, and the support at the bottom of the valuation mainly comes from the elastic demand at the refinery end. The future development of the Russia - Ukraine situation will affect Russia's fuel oil production and trade flow [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Be cautiously bearish and mainly wait and see in the short term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Be cautiously bearish and mainly wait and see in the short term [2]. - No strategies are provided for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options [2].

Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Report's Core Views - The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has declined, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery is low, and the spot discount is large. The current low inventory level is not bearish for prices. There is a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity due to the price decline caused by the current macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to whether the expected decline in social inventory before the Spring Festival can be realized [6]. - The domestic alumina spot market is quiet, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves. The supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern, but the current valuation is low, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,460 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is - 40 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,340 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changes - 30 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,380 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount remains unchanged at - 115 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 27, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,600 yuan/ton, closed at 21,500 yuan/ton, with a change of 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,610 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,485 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,551 lots, and the open interest was 257,138 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 27, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 596,000 tons, a change of - 17,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 66,909 tons, a change of - 76 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 541,050 tons, a change of - 675 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 27, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 319 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 27, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,721 yuan/ton, closed at 2,724 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of 0.15%. The highest price was 2,730 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,701 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 218,818 lots, and the open interest was 355,202 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 27, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no price change from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 74,600 tons, and the in - plant inventory is 59,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,069 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 269 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has declined, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery is low, and the spot discount is large. The current macro - data shows a marginal weakening trend near the end of the year, and there is a lack of upward driving force for prices in the short term. The 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Indonesia Liqin has been completed and put into production, but the power supply problem in Indonesia may still affect the output. There is an optimistic outlook for future consumption, and the current price decline provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity [6]. Alumina - The domestic alumina spot market is quiet, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, and the domestic ore is under short - term environmental protection pressure. Although the supply of imported ore is increasing, the price sentiment is weakening. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested. The social inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern. However, the current valuation is low [7][8]. Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [9]. - Arbitrage: Neutral [9]

Market Analysis - Russia-Ukraine negotiation process continues, and the ECB ends its easing policy. Putin agrees to use the US list for resolving the Ukraine issue as the basis for future negotiations and states conditions for halting armed actions. The ECB strengthens the market's expectation of the end of the current interest rate cut cycle [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 27, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 947.00 yuan/gram, closed at 947.16 yuan/gram, up 0.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 946.90 yuan/gram, down 0.03% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 12,250.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 12,525.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,827,650 lots, and the open interest was 427,960 lots. The night session closed at 12,490 yuan/kilogram, down 0.28% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 27, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.988%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.527%, up 1.03 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On November 27, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, long positions changed by 979 lots, and short positions changed by 2,210 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 346,227 lots, down 23.63% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2602 contract, long positions changed by 1,792 lots, and short positions changed by 1,933 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2,287,902 lots, up 11.53% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,045.43 tons, up 4.57 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,582 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 27, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -8.08 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,412.49 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 75.62, down 2.33% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 79.19, down 1.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 46,178 kilograms, down 19.28% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 864,016 kilograms, up 29.27% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 59,190 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Due to concerns about the US economic slowdown and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in December, the gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish and volatile pattern. The Au2602 contract may fluctuate between 920 yuan/gram and 970 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The macro logic is similar to that of gold. Due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than gold, and the tight spot market drives the gold-silver ratio to narrow. The silver price is also expected to be in a slightly bullish and volatile pattern, with the Ag2602 contract fluctuating between 12,200 yuan/kilogram and 12,700 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels - Options: Hold off