Group 1: Short-term Consensus - Trump's new tariff threat of 100% on all Chinese products starting November 1 has significantly increased market risk aversion, leading to declines in equities, industrial commodities, and cryptocurrencies, while gold and U.S. Treasuries rose[3] - The market consensus is that this is a maximum pressure strategy before the APEC summit at the end of October, indicating that the trend has not changed[4] - The overall economic impact is expected to be limited, with China's GDP growth target of 5% and a potential 5.2% growth in the first three quarters suggesting minimal macro policy adjustments before early November[4] Group 2: Long-term Competition - The trade war may signal the beginning of a decoupling between China and the U.S., entering a new cycle of fiscal expansion[4] - The shift from short-term TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading to long-term confrontation is anticipated, with increased policy maneuverability in key sectors under the "high-quality development" strategy[5] - The potential for renewed TACO trading in early November could present opportunities in safe-haven assets, while risk assets may offer buying opportunities after adjustments[31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent U.S. Treasury market shows a significant rebound driven by interest rate cuts. With increasing signs of economic slowdown and delayed release of key data due to government shutdown, the market is fully betting on monetary easing. The probability of a 25bp rate cut in October is nearly 98%, and the probability of a cumulative 50bp rate cut by the end of the year exceeds 96%. This has led to a decline in the yields of 5 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries, indicating a sharp drop in market risk appetite and a return of safe - haven demand. At the same time, the decline in oil prices and the easing of the Middle East situation have strengthened the expectation of inflation decline, further increasing the buying of U.S. Treasuries and creating a loose resonance in the global bond market [6]. - However, the long - term support for U.S. Treasuries is undergoing structural changes. Foreign central banks are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries and increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a decline in trust in U.S. dollar assets. The market is worried about the U.S. debt reaching $37 trillion and the annualized interest expenditure exceeding military spending, which may trigger a debt critical - point risk. In the long run, the core logic of U.S. Treasuries is shifting from a simple safe - haven asset to a focus of the game between trust and risk re - balance. Short - term trends are dominated by interest rate cut expectations, while long - term trends depend on the U.S. fiscal path, international capital allocation, and re - verification of inflation data [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. U.S. Treasury Yield Review - As of October 10, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped 15bp in two weeks, falling to 4.05%. Compared with two weeks ago, the 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped 11bp, and the 30 - year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped 14bp. Both short - and long - term bond yields have declined in the past two weeks [2]. 2. U.S. Treasury Market Changes - In terms of actual bond issuance, the duration of U.S. Treasury issuance increased slightly in early October. The issuance amounts were $57.84 billion for 3 - year, $38.92 billion for 10 - year, and $21.96 billion for 30 - year bonds. The U.S. fiscal deficit in August was $344.8 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.89 trillion [2]. 3. Derivatives Market Structure - The net short positions in U.S. Treasury futures have slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers have dropped to 5.738 million contracts. Meanwhile, the federal funds rate futures market remains in a net short position, rising to 395,400 contracts [2]. 4. U.S. Dollar Liquidity and U.S. Economy 4.1 Monetary Policy - On September 18, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25bp to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut in nine months this year. The Fed's statement showed increased concern about the labor market by deleting the description of "robust labor market conditions" and adding statements about "slowing employment growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and increased risks of employment decline" [3]. 4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of October 8, the U.S. Treasury's TGA deposit balance increased by $2.572 billion on a two - week - on - two - week basis, indicating fiscal money withdrawal [3]. 4.3 Economic Indicators - As of October 4, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.42 (2.07 two weeks ago), showing that the economy has improved after a short - term stabilization [3].

Group 1: Market Analysis - USD/CNY - China's export growth in August 2025 slowed to 4.4% year-on-year, the lowest in six months, and exports to the US declined by about 33.1% year-on-year. Import growth was weak, and overall import-export momentum weakened [1]. - Trump announced on October 10 that an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods would be imposed starting from November 1, signaling an escalation of Sino-US trade friction. This increases external pressure on the RMB, and there is a risk of RMB depreciation if the tariffs are eventually implemented [1]. - The new tariff proposal increased the short - term market demand for the US dollar as a safe - haven asset. The US dollar index attempted to rebound this week, but the increase narrowed without breaking through major resistance levels [1]. - The Fed's meeting minutes continued to send a dovish signal, with officials inclined to further interest rate cuts in the future, but inflation risks and balance - sheet adjustments were still widely concerned. Due to the partial government shutdown in the US, the release of core economic data was restricted, limiting the US dollar's upward momentum [1]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis of Exchange Rates - Economic expectation differentials are favorable for the RMB. There is a divergence in the market's view of the US dollar's future path due to the co - existence of economic growth and inflation. China has policy intervention and domestic demand support despite export and manufacturing downward pressure [2]. - The Sino - US interest rate differential is favorable for the RMB. With the decline of short - term US interest rates and China not significantly cutting interest rates, the interest rate differential may tilt towards the RMB [2]. - Trade policy uncertainty is favorable for the US dollar. Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting from November 1 signals an escalation risk of trade friction, which may trigger short - term exchange rate fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Other Currencies - The euro is under new downward pressure due to political upheaval in France. The resignation of French Prime Minister Lecornu and the subsequent attempt to form a new cabinet have raised questions about the stability of the French government, weakening market confidence in the eurozone's fiscal policy implementation and causing the euro to be under pressure against the US dollar [3]. - The Japanese yen has come under pressure recently. After conservative politician Takaichi Sanae was elected as the new leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, the market generally expects more stimulative economic policies, leading to an increase in long - term bond yields. On the day of Takaichi's victory, the yen fell more than 1.9% against the US dollar to 150.35, the largest single - day decline in five months. The widening of the US - Japan interest rate differential and carry - trade sentiment have further exacerbated the pressure on the yen [3]. Group 4: Strategies - For the USD/CNY exchange rate, during the window period when the tariff suspension is extended to November, the exchange rate is likely to remain in the range of 7.10 - 7.20 in the short term. Key factors to watch include the Fed's interest rate movements, US employment and inflation data, and the implementation of Sino - US trade policies [4]. - The euro is expected to be weak against the US dollar in the short term due to the weak eurozone economy, limited policy space, and political instability in France [4]. - The USD/JPY exchange rate may continue its upward trend in the short term due to changes in the Japanese political situation, the widening interest rate differential, and carry - trade flows. However, if the Bank of Japan intervenes or changes its policy, it may resist the upward momentum of the US dollar [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [3] Core Viewpoints - The glass and soda ash markets are both in a state of cautious waiting and oscillating weakly. The fundamentals of both are under pressure, with supply and demand contradictions remaining prominent. Attention should be paid to policy changes, supply dynamics, and downstream demand [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Glass - Price: The glass main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 1,207 yuan/ton on Friday. The weekly average price of the domestic float glass market was 1,263 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 85.17 yuan/ton [1][5] - Supply: Glass capacity utilization and output increased slightly, and the post-holiday supply was relatively stable [1] - Demand: The float glass market is in the traditional peak season, with stable shipments. After the holiday, the market is cautious, and purchases are mainly based on rigid demand [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.82 million heavy boxes, showing a significant increase. Continued attention should be paid to the inventory situation in October [1][33] - Supply and Demand Logic: Glass production is stable, and some production lines have been ignited. It is expected that production will continue to increase. The production and sales data weakened significantly during the holiday, and although there was a certain increase after the holiday, the overall situation remains weak. The glass price is at a relatively low level and is greatly affected by policies, but the weak fundamentals still strongly suppress the price [1] Market Analysis - Soda Ash - Price: The soda ash main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 1,240 yuan/ton on Friday. Some spot prices were lowered, and the spot-futures trading was good [1][5] - Supply: This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 88.41%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.76%. The output was 770,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.85%. Some enterprises had short shutdowns during the holiday, resulting in a decrease in supply [2][29] - Demand: Demand is relatively stable. With the decline in spot and futures prices, market transactions have increased, but overall supply-demand contradictions still exist [2][31] - Inventory: This week, the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6598 million tons, a 3.74% increase from before the holiday, indicating inventory accumulation [2][33] - Supply and Demand Logic: The supply-demand contradiction in soda ash remains severe. The second phase of Yuanxing's project was successfully ignited, and the subsequent supply pressure of soda ash will further increase. Demand is still weak due to the decline in photovoltaic glass and float glass. In the short term, soda ash will maintain a weak operation [2] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The opening of the export window weakens the short - allocation value of SHFE zinc. Although the domestic supply pressure remains, the export window opening and the change in domestic TC make the short - allocation logic change marginally. The SHFE zinc price will be more sensitive to overseas macro - positive factors, and the linkage between domestic and overseas markets will strengthen. With the LME inventory below 38,000 tons and the overseas premium rising, there is still a warrant risk. Despite short - term fluctuations caused by the tariff trade war, the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the tariff impact [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - On October 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation of 0.32%, and the LME price closed at $2,984.5/ton, with a fluctuation of - 0.01%. The spot prices in East China, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 22,300 yuan/ton, 22,320 yuan/ton, and 22,310 yuan/ton respectively, with different changes in the premium/discount to the main contract compared to the previous period. The LME (0 - 3) premium was $66.80/ton, with a weekly change of + $7.69/ton [1] - The weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates by SMM was 3,500 yuan/metal ton, with a weekly change of - 150 yuan/ton, and the weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates was $118.50/dry ton, with a weekly change of $2.60/dry ton. The import profit and loss of zinc concentrates was - 2,379.03 yuan/ton [1] - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises were 46.83% (a change of - 1.83% compared to last week), 46.51% (a change of - 0.35% compared to last week), and 56.08% (a change of - 1.24% compared to last week) respectively [1] Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven major regions was 150,200 tons, an increase of 8,800 tons compared to the previous week. The warrant inventory was 60,644 tons, and the LME zinc inventory was 37,950 tons [2] Profit - As of October 10, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises (excluding by - product income) was about - 436 yuan/ton. The sulfuric acid price in Inner Mongolia was 735 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week. After adding by - product income, the profit was about 1,100 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - Domestic smelters have low enthusiasm for purchasing domestic zinc ores. The domestic TC and imported TC continue to diverge, and the domestic TC declines. Although the domestic supply has not changed significantly, the opening of the export window changes the short - allocation logic marginally. The LME inventory is below 38,000 tons, and the overseas premium is rising, with a warrant risk. The tariff trade war causes short - term fluctuations, but the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the tariff impact [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [4]. Core Views - For natural rubber, as rainfall decreases in major production areas at home and abroad, production is gradually increasing, and domestic raw material prices are falling. Although the raw material prices in Thailand remain firm, the supply is expected to increase due to the peak season and reduced rainfall. After pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream tire factories, raw material demand will slow down next week, but the rigid demand remains. The overall supply - demand situation in China is gradually becoming looser, and inventory depletion is expected to slow down or even accumulate again [3]. - For butadiene rubber, there are still maintenance plans for domestic butadiene rubber plants in October, with a similar scale to September, providing support on the supply side. After pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream tire factories, raw material demand will slow down next week, but the rigid demand remains. The overall operating rate of butadiene rubber this year is still at a high level year - on - year, and the supply remains abundant. It is expected that the downstream will continue to show peak - season characteristics, and the supply and demand of butadiene rubber will be strong [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Spread - The spread data includes the prices of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, BR rubber, and various rubber products, as well as the basis of NR, RU, BR, and differences between different rubber types and products [1][7][8]. 2. Supply Data - In terms of natural rubber, the inventory inflow rate at Qingdao Port is 10.56% (+2.06%), with the general trade inventory inflow rate at 11.61% (+1.99%) and the bonded warehouse inventory inflow rate at 4.62% (+2.15%). The output of high - cis butadiene rubber is 29,990 tons, and the operating rate is 74.69% (+4.15%). There are also data on natural rubber production in China, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, as well as China's natural rubber imports [1][7][8]. - Regarding production profit, the production profit of Thai STR20 is - 186.00 yuan/ton (+0.00), the production profit of Thai RSS3 is 2,847.00 yuan/ton (+0.00), the production profit of butadiene rubber is - 364 yuan/ton (-300), and the production profit of butadiene by carbon - four extraction method is 1,765.83 yuan/ton (-39.83) [2]. 3. Demand Data - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 41.53% (-13.83%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 42.15% (-18%). The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province are 39.87 days (+0.36), and the inventory days of semi - steel tires are 45.70 days (-0.23). There are also data on the production of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province, the export volume of motor vehicle pneumatic tires in China, and the operating rates of rubber shoe materials, rubber tubes, and conveyor belts [2][8]. 4. Inventory Data - The natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port is 461,188 tons (-125,451), the social inventory of natural rubber is 1,112,557 tons (-122,953), the RU inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 144,390 tons (-5,420), and the NR futures inventory is 41,329 tons (-705). The port inventory of upstream butadiene is 27,750 tons (+0), the inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises is 26,600 tons (+0), and the inventory of butadiene rubber traders is 5,700 tons (+0) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading of caustic soda has improved, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of procurement. The supply is expected to decline slightly due to increased maintenance, and the demand from alumina is stable while non - aluminum demand is cautiously increasing. The cost support remains, but the chlor - alkali profit is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [1][2]. - **PVC**: The PVC market is in a weak state. The supply is abundant despite some reduction in quantity due to autumn maintenance. The demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The export has some resilience but is affected by Indian policies. The futures price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and the Politburo meeting [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Caustic Soda Price & Spread - As of October 10, 2025, the SH main contract of caustic soda closed at 2470 yuan/ton (+20). The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton (+5), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. II. PVC Price & Spread - As of October 10, 2025, the PVC main contract closed at 4735 yuan/ton (-34). The spot price of PVC in East China was 4620 yuan/ton (+0), and in South China was 4700 yuan/ton (+0) [3][4]. III. Cost Profit - **Caustic Soda**: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 748.28 yuan/ton (-24.38), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 177.28 yuan/ton (+30.63). The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1571.40 yuan/ton (+15.63), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of caustic soda + 1 ton of PVC) was 1311.75 yuan/ton (-20.00) [2]. - **PVC**: The single - variety production profit of PVC by the calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton (+152.89), and by the ethylene method was - 538.36 yuan/ton (+19.87). The export profit of PVC was 19 US dollars/ton (+0) [5]. IV. Caustic Soda Supply - The caustic soda operating rate was 84.30% (-0.80%), and the weekly output was 82.83 tons (-0.62). Tianjin Bohua's 300,000 - ton new production capacity has reached full production, and the number of maintenance enterprises will increase next week, with an expected slight decline in output [1][2]. V. Liquid Chlorine Price and Liquid Chlorine Downstream - As of October 10, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton (-50). The operating rates of downstream products such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and dichloromethane increased, and the weekly output of chloroform was 3.27 tons (+0.16) [2]. VI. PVC Supply - The average operating load of upstream calcium carbide was 65.72% (+0.17%), the PVC operating rate was 82.63% (+1.21%), and the operating rate of PVC by the calcium carbide method was 82.94% (+0.81%). Although there are many autumn maintenance enterprises in October, new production capacities are gradually reaching full production, and the supply is still abundant [4][5]. VII. Caustic Soda Downstream Demand - The operating rate of the main downstream product, alumina, was 86.32% (+0.14%), with a weekly output of 186.30 tons (+0.30). The operating rates of other downstream industries such as printing and dyeing, viscose staple fiber, white cardboard, and broad - leaf pulp showed different changes [1]. VIII. PVC Downstream Demand - The comprehensive operating rate of PVC downstream was 39.21% (-8.55%), with the operating rates of PVC pipes, profiles, and films showing different trends. The pre - sales volume of PVC production enterprises was 58.31 tons (-19.27), and the export orders weakened this week, but there is still some resilience in exports [4][5]. IX. Caustic Soda & PVC Inventory Data - **Caustic Soda**: The domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 42.12 tons (+3.00), and the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.11 tons (+0.10). - **PVC**: The PVC factory inventory was 38.36 tons (+8.40), and the social inventory was 55.70 tons (+1.93) [2][5].

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoint - At present, the processing fee for lead concentrates remains low despite the rising by - product prices, and there are no significant fundamental contradictions. Downstream enterprises are expected to fully recover from the holiday next week, mainly adopting a production - based - on - sales model. The lead price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,920 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Lead Market Analysis - **Mine End**: In the week of October 10, the quotation divergence in the imported ore market continued. With the silver price hitting new highs, the processing fee for silver - containing lead concentrates continued to decline. Domestically, some mines completed fourth - quarter pre - sales and suspended quotations, leading to a shortage of market - circulating resources. There were north - south differences in smelter processing fees. The winter - storage order processing fee in Henan and Inner Mongolia was 300 - 500 yuan/metal ton, while in Yunnan and Hunan, due to the decline in raw material inventory, some smelters could only purchase low - silver ore sources at 0 - 200 yuan/metal ton. In the long - term, the supply - demand imbalance of lead concentrates is difficult to improve [1] - **Primary Lead**: In the week of October 10, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was stable at 68.47%, a slight increase of 1.98% compared to before the holiday. A smelter in Henan resumed production as planned, increasing output slightly, while a company in Hunan was expected to see a decline in electrolytic lead output in October due to crude lead maintenance. Overall, the operating situation showed regional differentiation [1] - **Recycled Lead**: In the week of October 10, the operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces rose to 34.04%, an increase of 5.63 percentage points. Anhui was the main driving force, with a large smelter resuming production and another entering the baking stage. The operating rate in Anhui is expected to rise by about 10 percentage points next week. The operating rates in other provinces were generally stable. It is expected that the enthusiasm of recycled lead enterprises to start work will only increase limitedly [2] - **Consumption**: In the week of October 10, the comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 61.71%, an increase of 6.58 percentage points. The resumption of work after the holiday was the main reason for the increase. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to recover next week, and the production rhythm will be more inclined to production - based - on - sales [2] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 10, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 3.69 million tons, a decrease of 2.05 million tons compared to the previous week. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 237,000 tons [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red dates: Neutral [8] Core Views - For apples, continuous rainy weather has delayed the concentrated listing of red apples and compressed the acquisition and warehousing time. Good-quality apples are expected to have stable and strong prices with a significant price gap between good and average-quality apples. Attention should be paid to the game between merchants' acquisition mentality and fruit farmers' selling mentality [2][3][4] - For red dates, the new season's red dates are at a critical period. The market has a relatively certain judgment on the production trend, and the fruit quality is better than last year. The futures price may face a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to consumption, new-season quality, and production changes [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: This week, the closing price of the Apple 2601 contract was 8,744 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 127 yuan/ton, or 1.47% [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first and second-grade apples in Qixia, Shandong was 7,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spot basis was AP01 - 1,144, a week-on-week decrease of 127 yuan/ton. The price of 70 semi-commodity apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi was 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spot basis was AP01 + 856, a week-on-week decrease of 127 yuan/ton [1] Recent Market Information - As of October 9, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 67,900 tons. New-season late Fuji apples are gradually being listed. Due to continuous rainy weather, the coloring in the western producing areas is slow, and the large supply of red apples is delayed compared to last year [2] - In Shandong, the new-season late Fuji apples are mostly waiting to be colored. The coloring is slower than the same period last year, with few red apples and low commodity rates this year. Merchants are cautious in their acquisitions [2] - In Shaanxi, the coloring is slow, and the listing of red apples is limited. Most late Fuji apples are still in the coloring stage and will enter the concentrated trading stage in 5 - 7 days. Merchants are mostly in a wait-and-see mood [2] - In the sales areas, the number of incoming vehicles at the Guangdong Chalong Market fluctuates significantly. The terminal market consumption during the National Day holiday was slightly slower year-on-year. The sales of new-season late Fuji good-quality apples are okay, but there is pressure on daily digestion, and there is some backlog in the transit warehouses [2] Market Analysis - New-season late Fuji apples are gradually being listed this week, but the acquisition and warehousing time is compressed. The sales during and after the Double Festival were average. Good-quality apples' prices are stable and slightly strong, and merchants are cautious in their acquisitions but active in acquiring good-quality apples [3] - Next week, late Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions will be on the market for trading. The price gap between good and average-quality apples will be obvious. If there is a rush to buy good-quality apples, the prices will remain stable and strong, while the prices of average-quality apples may not be strong due to the increase in supply [3] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Currently, late Fuji apples are being traded sporadically. Due to weather conditions, it is difficult to organize a large number of red apples, and the acquisition period may be shortened. Good-quality apples' prices are expected to be stable and strong, with a significant price gap [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: This week, the Red Dates 2601 contract rose slightly. As of October 10, the closing price was 11,145 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 325 yuan/ton, or 3.00% [5] - Spot: The purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates in the 2024 production season was concentrated at 4.50 - 5.50 yuan/kg, with a reference average purchase price of 5.33 yuan/kg. The spot price of first-grade grey dates in Hebei was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The spot basis was CJ01 - 1,645, a week-on-week decrease of 325 [5] Recent Market Information - The new-season red dates are at a critical period between the old and new production seasons. The jujube trees in the main producing areas are in the drying period, with good overall growth and are about to be harvested, possibly about a week earlier than last year [6] - Inland merchants have gone to Xinjiang to contract orchards around the National Day holiday. The orchard contracting process in Hotan and Aksu is relatively fast, with the contracting price range at 5.50 - 8.00 yuan/kg, and a small amount of high-quality goods priced around 9.00 yuan/kg [6] - The market has a relatively certain judgment on the new-season jujube production trend. The weather is sunny with little rainfall, which is conducive to sugar accumulation and quality improvement. The market's concerns about jujube quality have been alleviated, and the jujube quality is better than last year [6] - The arrival volume in the sales areas this week is low. During the National Day holiday, the arrival volume at the Hebei market's parking area was more than 10 vehicles, significantly lower than more than 200 vehicles in the same period last year. Affected by continuous rainfall, there are few merchants looking at and purchasing goods, and the trading atmosphere is light [6] Market Analysis - Currently, red dates are at a critical period of switching between the off - and peak - seasons and the "alternation of old and new seasons." Grey dates in the Xinjiang main producing areas are about to be harvested, and merchants are starting to contract orchards in small quantities [7] - Affected by the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the spot market in the sales areas this week was average, with downstream rigid - demand purchases as the main form. The spot prices fluctuated slightly, and the trading was a bit light [7] - The inventory depletion rate of 36 sample points is flatter than in recent years, and there is still inventory pressure. The supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated [7] - The jujube production in the 2024 production season was large, and the inventory was high, but the quality was not good. The new - season jujube trees have the problem of over - depletion, and a production reduction is a normal expectation. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 620,000 tons [7] Strategy - Neutral. Overall, if the production and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue; otherwise, the red dates' futures prices will face a volatile pattern with limited upward movement and strong support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to consumption, new - season quality, and production changes [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - From October 9th to 10th, the Treasury bond market showed a volatile pattern of "rising first and then falling." After the holiday, the market sentiment improved significantly, and both the bond and stock markets rose. Treasury bond futures strengthened across the board. However, on October 10th, the market reversed sharply due to concerns about liquidity tightening and rising geopolitical risks [3]. - For strategies, in the unilateral aspect, with the decline of repo rates and the oscillation of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is cautiously bullish; in the arbitrage aspect, attention should be paid to the decline of the T2512 basis; in the hedging aspect, there is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Macroeconomic Aspect - Policy: Since August 8, 2025, VAT will be levied on the interest income of newly issued Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds. The 24% tariff between China and the US will be suspended for 90 days from August 12. The government emphasizes measures to stabilize the real estate market, expand consumption and investment. In October, the US added Chinese entities to the export control list and imposed special port fees, and China responded similarly [1]. - Inflation: The CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1]. Market Analysis - Capital Aspect - Fiscal: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6%, and the gap between them narrowed. The increase in RMB loans in the first eight months was 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan. Deposit growth was 8.6%, and the growth rates of credit and deposits declined slightly [2]. - Central Bank: On October 11, 2025, the central bank conducted 116 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate of 1.4% [2]. - Money Market: The main term repo rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.32%, 1.42%, and 1.48% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2]. Market Analysis - Market Aspect - Closing Prices: On October 10, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.35 yuan, 105.65 yuan, 107.98 yuan, and 113.97 yuan respectively. The weekly price changes were - 0.03%, 0.02%, 0.13%, and 0.06% respectively [2]. - Net Basis: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.02 yuan, 0.04 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and - 0.03 yuan respectively [2]. Strategies - Unilateral: With the decline of repo rates and the oscillation of Treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is cautiously bullish [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the T2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].