Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the peak - season demand in batteries not being significantly evident. However, due to macro - factors, the non - ferrous metals sector is relatively strong. The lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,350 and 17,050 [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On August 18, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.24/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,675 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,700 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton, the waste white - shell price remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the waste black - shell price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,475 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On August 18, 2025, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16,810 yuan/ton, closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 30,595 lots, down 2,006 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 49,496 lots, down 1,711 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 16,750 - 16,835 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 16,790 yuan/ton, closed at 16,795 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - The SMM1 lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton. In Henan, suppliers offered at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or a discount of 120 - 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with some offering at a 150 - yuan/ton discount. In Hunan, smelters offered at a 20 - 0 yuan/ton discount to the SMM1 lead price. Due to weak lead futures and increased social inventory after delivery, downstream demand was mainly for essential needs, and the spot market was quiet [2] Inventory - On August 18, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 71,000 tons, down 70 tons from the previous week. As of August 18, the LME lead inventory was 260,475 tons, down 625 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the supply of domestic soybeans is stable due to continuous auctions of old soybeans by Sinograin and good growth of new - season soybeans in the Northeast. The downstream processing industry has low operating rates, and the summer off - season suppresses demand. The current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the new soybean listing rhythm and downstream consumption changes [1][2] - For peanuts, before the large - scale listing of new peanuts, the confidence of trading entities is insufficient. The inventory of old peanuts is being consumed, and the supply of new peanuts is limited with high prices. However, downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the new peanut listing rhythm and downstream market acceptance [3] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract was 4044.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 12.00 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous day. The daily increase was 0.00%. - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 256, a change of + 12 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day. The prices in the Northeast market were stable, with the price of first - class protein 39% medium - grain tower - loaded soybeans in Harbin, Shuangyashan, and Jiamusi at 2.15 yuan/jin, and the price of first - class protein 41% medium - grain tower - loaded soybeans in Qiqihar, Heihe, and Suihua ranging from 2.19 - 2.22 yuan/jin [1] Strategy - Neutral [1] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7810.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 12.00 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8260.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 140.00 yuan/ton (- 1.67%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 390.00, a change of + 12.00 (+ 3.17%) from the previous day. The domestic peanut market was basically stable, with the average price of common peanuts at 4.20 yuan/jin, and prices in different regions showing small fluctuations [3] Strategy - Neutral [3] Risk - Demand weakening [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On August 18, the decline of Treasury bond futures was mainly due to the strong stock market attracting funds and sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3740 points, reaching a new high in nearly a decade, and the ChiNext Index also rose, significantly boosting risk appetite. Additionally, the tax - payment period led to a temporary tightness in the capital market. Despite the central bank's net injection of billions, the DR007 interest rate remained high, resulting in concentrated market selling pressure. The Ministry of Finance's decision to increase the supply of scarce bond types through "on - the - run sales" to improve secondary - market liquidity and trading spreads further exacerbated market concerns about rising interest rates, causing the 30 - year Treasury bond futures to decline by over 1% [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI monthly环比 was 0.40% and同比 was 0.00%; PPI monthly环比 was - 0.20% and同比 was - 3.60% [10]. - Social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a环比 change of + 1.04 trillion yuan and a环比 change rate of + 0.24%; M2同比 was 8.80%, with a环比 increase of + 0.50% and a环比 change rate of + 6.02%; Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a环比 decrease of - 0.40% and a环比 change rate of - 0.80% [10]. - The US dollar index was 98.15, with a环比 increase of + 0.30 and a环比 change rate of + 0.31%; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1819, with a环比 change of + 0.000 and a环比 change rate of - 0.01%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.48, with a环比 increase of + 0.02 and a环比 change rate of + 1.23%; DR007 was 1.51, with a环比 increase of + 0.03 and a环比 change rate of + 2.34%; R007 was 1.56, with a环比 decrease of - 0.12 and a环比 change rate of - 7.38%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.55, with a环比 increase of + 0.02 and a环比 change rate of + 1.27%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, with a环比 increase of + 0.00 and a环比 change rate of + 1.27% [11]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content other than the mention of related charts (e.g., closing price trends, price change rates, etc.) is provided. 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital - In the first half of 2025, China's national fiscal operation was generally stable, with increased expenditure expansion and continuous optimization of the revenue - expenditure structure. General public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and tax revenue accounted for over 80%. Although the overall tax revenue decreased by 1.2%, major tax types such as VAT, consumption tax, and individual income tax showed growth. General public budget expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, focusing on key livelihood and development areas. Government - managed fund budget expenditure increased by 30% year - on - year, driven by the accelerated investment of central special Treasury bonds and special bonds in infrastructure. Despite the decline in land transfer income, local government - managed fund income remained relatively stable [3]. - On August 18, 2025, the central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity - based bidding [3]. - The main term repurchase interest rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.436%, 1.483%, 1.537%, and 1.528% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently rebounded [3]. 4. Spread Overview No specific content other than the mention of related spread trend charts is provided. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than the mention of related charts (e.g., implied interest rate, IRR, etc.) is provided. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than the mention of related charts (e.g., implied interest rate, IRR, etc.) is provided. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than the mention of related charts (e.g., implied interest rate, IRR, etc.) is provided. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than the mention of related charts (e.g., implied interest rate, IRR, etc.) is provided. Strategy - Unilateral: With the rebound of repurchase interest rates and the fluctuating prices of Treasury bond futures, it is recommended to short at high levels for the 2509 contract [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the basis rebound of T2509 and the basis decline of TS2509 and TL2509 [5]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [4] - Coking Coal: Sideways [7] - Coke: Sideways [7] - Steam Coal: No specific strategy provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has declined, and prices are fluctuating. The steel market needs to compress profits to control supply and reconstruct the supply - demand balance, but the cost support is strong, so the price adjustment space is limited. The iron ore supply has increased, but the demand is also resilient, and the long - term supply is still relatively loose. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by supply and downstream demand, and attention should be paid to supply recovery and downstream restocking. The steam coal market has a short - term price fluctuation due to supply contraction and long - term supply is in a loose pattern [1][3][6][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The rebar futures contract closed at 3,155 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,419 yuan/ton. The national inventory of building materials was 4.4259 million tons, a 6.08% week - on - week increase, and the national inventory of hot - rolled coils was 1.9654 million tons, a 3.07% week - on - week increase [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The production and sales of building materials continued to weaken, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand was average, and speculative demand was insufficient. The production and sales of plates rebounded, but high prices affected exports. The market needs to control supply through profit compression, but cost support is strong [1] - Strategy: Sideways with a downward bias for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The iron ore futures price fluctuated downward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The total port trading volume was 1.003 million tons, a 5.02% week - on - week decrease, and the forward spot trading volume was 1.04 million tons, a 39.71% week - on - week decrease. The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 3.599 million tons to 34.066 million tons, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 0.947 million tons to 24.766 million tons [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply increased, and the demand was resilient. The port and in - plant inventories increased, and the berthing volume decreased significantly. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction was limited; in the long term, the supply was relatively loose [3] - Strategy: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated downward. Coke started the seventh round of price increase. The price of imported Mongolian coking coal was stable at 980 - 1020 yuan/ton [5][6] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply of coking coal was tight, and some mines had inventory accumulation. The supply of coke increased insufficiently, and the inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to supply recovery, downstream restocking, and macro - policy guidance [6] - Strategy: Sideways for both coking coal and coke; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Steam Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, the supply tightened due to concentrated mine overhauls, and the price rose. At ports, the market sentiment declined, and the trading was sluggish. The import coal had a price advantage, and the downstream procurement was active [8] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply in production areas contracted, and the short - term price fluctuated. In the long term, the supply was in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8] - Strategy: No specific strategy provided

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on price fluctuations in the upstream of the black and agricultural industries, and also takes note of mid - level events in the production and service industries [1]. - It emphasizes the need to pay attention to the implementation of real - estate new policies and the development of artificial intelligence technology requirements [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Segment Upstream - In the black industry, the glass price has declined significantly year - on - year [2]. - In the agricultural industry, the prices of eggs and palm oil are rising. Specifically, the spot price of eggs on August 18 was 6.7 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 5.02%, and the spot price of palm oil was 9626.0 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 6.39% [2][47]. Midstream - In the chemical industry, the PX operating rate is increasing [3]. Downstream - In the real - estate industry, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have declined [4]. - In the service industry, the increase in the number of domestic flights has moderated [4]. 4. Key Data Charts - The report includes data charts on coal consumption, inventory, operating rates of various industries (such as PTA, PX, polyester, etc.), peak congestion indices of major cities, movie box office, flight execution, and real - estate transaction data [6]. 5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The report tracks the prices of various industries including agriculture, non - ferrous metals, black metals, non - metals, energy, chemicals, and real - estate. For example, in the agricultural industry, the spot price of corn on August 18 was 2317.1 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.18%; in the black metal industry, the spot price of glass on August 18 was 14.3 yuan/square meter, with a year - on - year decrease of 5.12% [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on 01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved, and the spot price has stabilized due to the release of the Indian tender and export news. However, the subsequent domestic demand drive is not obvious, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. There is still a large export space for urea in July, and the subsequent implementation needs to be monitored. The downstream agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The urea production is at a high level, and the future supply - demand is still relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The Indian tender and demand will boost the international urea market. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 18, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1754 yuan/ton (+17). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1730 yuan/ton (+30), and in Jiangsu was 1740 yuan/ton (+30). The basis in Shandong was - 24 yuan/ton (+13), in Henan was - 14 yuan/ton (+3), and in Jiangsu was - 14 yuan/ton (+13) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 18, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.21% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 million tons (+6.98), and the port sample inventory was 46.40 million tons (-1.90). Jiujiang Xinlianxin (capacity of 52 million tons) and Xinjiang Yihua (capacity of 60 million tons) are expected to stop for maintenance for more than 20 days on August 20, but with the release of new production capacity, the future urea supply - demand remains relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 18, 2025, the urea production profit was 200 yuan/ton (+30), and the export profit was 1321 yuan/ton (-49). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - Urea exports continued in August, and the port inventory fluctuated slightly. India's NFL issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market. The urea export in July was 57 million tons, and there is still a large export space compared with the previously recognized export quota [2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 43.48% (+1.98%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.82% (-11.28%); the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.29 days (-0.24). The downstream industrial demand is affected by the parade, with melamine and panel factories expected to reduce production. The compound fertilizer factory's operating rate has increased, but the finished product inventory has accumulated, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.74 million tons (+6.98), and the port sample inventory was 46.40 million tons (-1.90) [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report The report presents the market liquidity situation on August 18, 2025, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of different sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials sectors, as well as their changes compared with the previous trading day [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Plate Liquidity The report shows the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors and their changes compared with the previous trading day. The stock index sector had a trading volume of 843.847 billion yuan, a holding amount of 1291.566 billion yuan, and a trading - holding ratio of 64.97%, with a trading volume change of +11.33% and a holding amount change of +6.79% compared with the previous trading day. The treasury bond sector had a trading volume of 678.306 billion yuan, a holding amount of 831.298 billion yuan, and a trading - holding ratio of 83.14%, with a trading volume change of +40.81% and a holding amount change of +1.42%. The basic metal sector had a trading volume of 405.897 billion yuan, a holding amount of 513.179 billion yuan, and a trading - holding ratio of 100.78%, with a trading volume change of - 4.72% and a holding amount change of +0.11%. The precious metal sector had a trading volume of 190.488 billion yuan, a holding amount of 426.647 billion yuan, and a trading - holding ratio of 53.02%, with a trading volume change of - 24.01% and a holding amount change of - 1.80%. The energy chemical sector had a trading volume of 463.258 billion yuan, a holding amount of 427.233 billion yuan, and a trading - holding ratio of 95.44%, with a trading volume change of - 8.21% and a holding amount change of - 0.90%. The agricultural product sector had a trading volume of 405.612 billion yuan, a holding amount of 611.646 billion yuan, and a trading - holding ratio of 59.40%, with a trading volume change of +18.19% and a holding amount change of +0.91%. The black building materials sector had a trading volume of 389.852 billion yuan, a holding amount of 396.071 billion yuan, and a trading - holding ratio of 90.50%, with a trading volume change of +10.32% and a holding amount change of +0.02% [1][2]. II. Stock Index Plate The trading volume of the stock index sector was 843.847 billion yuan, with a change of +11.33% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1291.566 billion yuan, with a change of +6.79%; and the trading - holding ratio was 64.97% [1]. III. Treasury Bond Plate The trading volume of the treasury bond sector was 678.306 billion yuan, with a change of +40.81% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 831.298 billion yuan, with a change of +1.42%; and the trading - holding ratio was 83.14% [1]. IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) The basic metal sector had a trading volume of 405.897 billion yuan, with a change of - 4.72% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 513.179 billion yuan, with a change of +0.11%; and the trading - holding ratio was 100.78%. The precious metal sector had a trading volume of 190.488 billion yuan, with a change of - 24.01% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 426.647 billion yuan, with a change of - 1.80%; and the trading - holding ratio was 53.02% [1]. V. Energy Chemical Plate The trading volume of the energy chemical sector was 463.258 billion yuan, with a change of - 8.21% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 427.233 billion yuan, with a change of - 0.90%; and the trading - holding ratio was 95.44% [1]. VI. Agricultural Product Plate The trading volume of the agricultural product sector was 405.612 billion yuan, with a change of +18.19% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 611.646 billion yuan, with a change of +0.91%; and the trading - holding ratio was 59.40% [1]. VII. Black Building Materials Plate The trading volume of the black building materials sector was 389.852 billion yuan, with a change of +10.32% compared with the previous trading day; the holding amount was 396.071 billion yuan, with a change of +0.02%; and the trading - holding ratio was 90.50% [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the nickel variety, the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and with the decline in liquidity during the delivery month, nickel prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [1][2]. - For the stainless - steel variety, domestic stainless - steel production remains at a high level. Although the downstream stainless - steel inventory has decreased week - on - week, the real - estate industry is sluggish, and the manufacturing industries such as home appliances and automobiles mainly make purchases based on rigid demand, making it difficult to support price rebounds [3][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 18, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 opened at 120,710 yuan/ton and closed at 120,340 yuan/ton, a - 0.29% change from the previous trading day's close. Affected by the rise in LME nickel prices, the night - session opened with a small rally but failed to break through the 121,000 yuan/ton resistance level. Due to the approaching delivery month, market liquidity declined, and the price fluctuated narrowly in the range of 120,500 - 120,800 yuan/ton, finally closing near 120,600 yuan/ton, a slight 0.12% drop from the previous day's settlement price. The day - session continued to be weak, hitting a 5 - day low of 120,140 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 120,700 yuan/ton in the afternoon, with a trading volume of only 78,000 lots, indicating insufficient bullish power [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel - ore market was calm on the day, with prices stable. In the Philippines, 1.3% nickel - ore resources in September were traded at FOB 29 - 32, and there were differences in ore - end prices. Although the loss situation of downstream iron plants has improved, they are not willing to accept high - priced nickel - ore raw materials. In Indonesia, the August (second - phase) nickel - ore domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop slightly by 0.03 - 0.04 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the August (second - phase) premium to decline due to thin profits [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,600 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The nickel price was weak on the day, and downstream enterprises were still in a wait - and - see mood, with general refined - nickel spot trading. The premium of Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 23,051 (910.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 210,414 (- 1,248) tons [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly adopt range - bound operations. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No relevant strategies are provided [2]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 18, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2510 opened at 13,015 yuan/ton and closed at 13,010 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in LME nickel prices, the night - session opened with a small dip to around 13,000 yuan/ton. Although the domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons week - on - week to 1.079 million tons, concerns about high - supply pressure dominated the sentiment. The price fluctuated narrowly in the range of 12,980 - 13,020 yuan/ton, finally closing at 13,010 yuan/ton, a 0.15% drop from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume shrank to 46,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by about 2,000 lots, indicating reduced capital participation. The day - session continued to be weak, hitting a 3 - day low of 12,965 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 13,010 yuan/ton in the afternoon, with a trading volume of only 78,000 lots, showing insufficient bullish power [3]. - **Spot**: Although some traders tentatively raised prices in the morning, downstream acceptance of high prices was still low, with few actual transactions. As the futures market declined, the spot price basically returned to last week's level in the afternoon, with little overall fluctuation. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,125 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 195 - 345 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 926.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options**: No relevant strategies are provided [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The upward trend driven by liquidity continues, with growth and cyclical sectors performing prominently recently due to active funds. The continuous inflow of incremental funds and the market's profit - making effect form a positive interaction, and institutions, individual investors, and foreign capital all have the potential to further increase their positions. Although the major indices have reached new highs in recent years, there are no obvious signs of overheating in the internal structure of the sectors. The recent increase in market trading volume may intensify short - term fluctuations but does not affect the long - term upward trend [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Domestic Policy Boost**: On August 18, Premier Li Qiang chaired the ninth plenary meeting of the State Council, emphasizing enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, responding to market concerns, and stabilizing market expectations. Measures include stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and stabilizing the real estate market [1] - **Overseas Market Events**: Facing Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on Indian goods, Indian Prime Minister Modi plans a goods and services tax reform, aiming to simplify four tax brackets (5%, 12%, 18%, 28%) into two (5%, 18%) to boost the economy and cope with tariff impacts. The market is also concerned about the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [1] - **Stock Market Performance**: In the A - share spot market, the three major indices opened and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to 3728.03 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.84%. Most sector indices increased, with communication, computer, electronics, and national defense and military industries leading the gains, while only the real estate and petroleum and petrochemical industries declined. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased to 2.8 trillion yuan, and the total market value of A - shares exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time. In the overseas market, the three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.08% to 44911.82 points [1] 2. Futures Market - **Basis and Position Changes**: In the futures market, all IH contracts are at a premium, and the IC basis level is low. The trading volumes of IF, IC, and IM increased, and the total position of index futures also increased [2] 3. Strategy - **Market Trend**: The upward trend driven by liquidity continues. Recently, growth and cyclical sectors have performed well due to active funds. The continuous inflow of incremental funds and the market's profit - making effect form a positive cycle, and various types of investors have the motivation to increase their positions. Although the major indices have reached new highs, there are no obvious signs of overheating in the sector structure. The recent increase in trading volume may cause short - term fluctuations but does not affect the long - term upward trend [3] 4. Charts - **Macro - economic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][12][11] - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Present the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on August 18, 2025, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. Also include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Provide data on the position and trading volume of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), basis (futures - spot), and inter - period spreads. Include relevant charts for each type of contract [18][43][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Upstream supply of polyolefins is high, but the supply pressure of PE is expected to ease due to planned maintenance of some PE devices, while the supply of PP continues to increase and the inventory pressure is large. The cost - side support is weak, and the downstream demand is gradually increasing as it is in the transition period between the off - season and peak season [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7334 yuan/ton (-17), and the PP main contract closed at 7048 yuan/ton (-36). The LL North China spot was 7250 yuan/ton (+0), the LL East China spot was 7300 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP East China spot was 7000 yuan/ton (-40). The LL North China basis was -84 yuan/ton (+17), the LL East China basis was -34 yuan/ton (+17), and the PP East China basis was -48 yuan/ton (-4) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 84.2% (+0.1%), and the PP operating rate was 77.9% (+0.6%). The PE oil - based production profit was 451.6 yuan/ton (+72.3), the PP oil - based production profit was -48.4 yuan/ton (+72.3), and the PDH - based PP production profit was 190.0 yuan/ton (+15.1) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit was -115.0 yuan/ton (-5.3), the PP import profit was -461.4 yuan/ton (+37.8), and the PP export profit was 30.1 US dollars/ton (+0.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.8% (+0.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.1% (-0.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 41.4% (+0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.1% (+0.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The PE upstream and mid - stream inventory changed from rising to falling, while the PP upstream and mid - stream inventory continued to rise with large inventory pressure [2]