| | 20250613申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 幅波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产 ...

报告日期：2025 年 6 月 13 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：夜来风雨声，"价"落知多少 中方愿同欧央行在国际货币体系改革等方面加强合作。美国 5 月 PPI 与核心 PPI 均环比温和增长 0.1%、低于预期，核心 PPI 增速创近一年新低，美联储年内两 次降息预期升温。贝森特首次称"7 月 9 日关税大限"可延期。美国宣布 23 日 起对钢制家电加征关税，洗衣机冰箱在列。特朗普推翻加州电动车强制令。以汽 车换农业，美英谈判关键细节马上揭晓。美国上周首次申请失业救济人数略高预 期，续请救济人数飙升至 2021 年底来最高。一架印度航空波音 787-8 客机在印 度机场附近坠毁，从起飞到爆炸不足 1 分钟。 重点品种：股指、油脂、铜 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指小幅波动，资金方面，6 月 11 日融资 余额增加 18.23 亿元至 18066.00 亿元。当前我国主要指数的估值水平仍然处于 较低水平，中长期资金入市配置的性价比仍然较高。6 月 11 日中国商务部表示 中方与美方已经在原则上达成了一个协议框架，利好股指。当前市场整体表现震 荡偏多，股指期权隐含波动率也处于历史较低水平，若有新 ...

报告日期：2025 年 6 月 12 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评："硅锂"有意，"钢矿"无情 中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表：中美原则上达成协议框架。美国 5 月 CPI 同比增 2.4%，核心 CPI 环比增 0.1%、连续第四个月低于预期。美国 5 月 CPI 数据全线 低于预期，能源主导整体 CPI 的放缓，汽车、服装价格均出现下滑，玩具、家电 受关税影响更直接的品类价格上涨。特朗普对伊朗核谈判"信心减弱"，美将减 少驻伊拉克使团规模，布油涨超 5%。特朗普表示，伊朗方面似乎在拖延。他强 调，无论协议是否达成，伊朗都不会拥有核武器。黄仁勋 GTC 大会表示，量子计 算正迎来拐点，计划在欧洲新建 20 家"人工智能工厂"。 重点品种：原油、股指、玻璃 玻璃：玻璃期货窄幅整理。基本面，盘面目前在千元下方逐步止跌。不过，整体 而言市场依然关注宏观托底背景下微观层面供需消化的成效。数据方面，上周玻 璃生产企业库存 6011 万重箱，环比增加 222 万重箱。纯碱期货低位整理。数据 层面，上周纯碱生产企业库存 167.5 万吨，环比增加 0.6 万吨。综合而言，国内， 玻璃纯碱都处于库存承压消化的周期，由于生产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The EC of the container shipping European line declined, with the 08 contract closing at 2001.5 points, a decrease of 2.10%. After the China-US economic and trade talks in Geneva in mid-May, the main 08 contract reached a high of over 2400 points, corresponding to a large container freight rate of about $3700. The average price of large containers in the second half of June was $3000, a difference of about $700. From the price increase in June to the end of the month, the monthly increase in large container prices was about $1000. Currently, the 08 contract basically follows the spot freight rate fluctuations, and whether it can break through the previous high depends on the price increases and implementation in July and August. The capacity in the 23rd week was partially increased to the 24th and 25th weeks, causing a sharp increase in capacity in these two weeks, especially in the 24th week when the deployed capacity exceeded 350,000 TEU. As the shipping date approaches, the capacity deployment rhythm in June also adds pressure to the freight rate increase in July. Shipping companies are not restrained in capacity deployment. The current market valuation is relatively neutral but the expectation is weak. It is expected to continue the volatile pattern, and shorting opportunities on rallies can be considered [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - The latest transaction price of EC2506 was 1926 points, with a decline of 0.79%, a trading volume of 1568 (a decrease of 280 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 6764 (a decrease of 504 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members was 100 [2]. - The latest transaction price of EC2508 was 2001.5 points, with a decline of 2.10%, a trading volume of 55132 (a decrease of 4576 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 44603 (a decrease of 891 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members was -1907 [2]. - The latest transaction price of EC2510 was 1371.1 points, with an increase of 1.38%, a trading volume of 12283 (an increase of 2456 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 25054 (an increase of 871 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members was 0 [2]. - The latest transaction price of EC2512 was 1554.9 points, with an increase of 0.94%, a trading volume of 2014 (an increase of 557 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 4730 (an increase of 93 compared to the previous period) [2]. - The latest transaction price of EC2602 was 1402.4 points, with an increase of 1.22%, a trading volume of 393 (an increase of 67 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 2869 (an increase of 49 compared to the previous period) [2]. - The latest transaction price of EC2604 was 1242.9 points, with an increase of 1.34%, a trading volume of 524 (an increase of 113 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 3384 (a decrease of 21 compared to the previous period) [2]. - The total trading volume was 71914, and the total open interest was 87404. The total long positions of the top 20 members were 28317, the total short positions were 30124, and the net long position was -1807 [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - The latest SCFIS index was 1622.81 points, with a weekly increase of 29.5%. The SCFI was $1667/TEU, with a weekly increase of 5.0%. The TCI (20GP) was $1849/TEU, with a daily increase of 0.0%. The TCI (40GP) was $2980/FEU, with a daily increase of 0.0% [4]. Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was -378.69 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was -419.29 points, with a change of 40.6 points [6]. Spot Market Data - The deployed capacity on the Asia-Europe route was 511,798 TEU, a decrease of 3002 TEU compared to the previous period. The idle capacity ratio was 1.7%. The average sailing speed of container ships was 13.88 knots, and the average sailing speed of container ships over 17000 TEU was 15.46 knots [7]. - The in-port capacity in Rotterdam was 232,100 TEU, in Hamburg was 108,300 TEU, and in Singapore was 358,600 TEU. The number of ships bypassing the Aden Gulf was 8, the northbound traffic volume through the Suez Canal was 1, and the southbound traffic volume was 2 [7]. - The regular charter rates for 9000 TEU (6 - 12 months) were $104,000 per day, for 6500 TEU were $68,500 per day, and for 2500 TEU were $34,750 per day [7].

| | 20250612申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 幅波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | 锌 | 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Shenwan Futures Variety Strategy Daily Report - Treasury Bonds on June 12, 2025, released by the Shenwan Futures Research Institute [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The previous trading day saw a general increase in treasury bond futures prices, with low IRR for CTD bonds of main contracts and no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and key - term treasury bond yields generally declined. The Fed may keep rates unchanged in the next meeting, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, with loose liquidity supporting bond futures prices [2][3] Group 4: Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2509 contract rose 0.05%. The trading volume and open interest of various contracts also changed. For instance, the open interest of the T2509 contract increased by 2389 [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to main treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2] Group 5: Short - term Market Interest Rates - **Rate Changes**: The previous trading day, short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 0.6bp, DR007 rate rose 1.91bp, and GC007 rate rose 3.2bp [2] Group 6: Spot Market - **Chinese Treasury Yields**: The previous trading day, yields of key - term Chinese treasury bonds generally declined. The 10Y treasury bond yield dropped 0.79bp to 1.65%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 17.12bp [2] - **Overseas Treasury Yields**: The previous trading day, the US 10Y treasury bond yield dropped 6bp, the German 10Y yield rose 0bp, and the Japanese 10Y yield rose 0.7bp [2] Group 7: Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On June 11, the central bank conducted 164 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 50.9 billion yuan [3] - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Talks**: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, reaching a consensus on measures to consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks [3] - **China - Africa Cooperation**: President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter to the Ministerial Meeting of Coordinators for the Implementation of the Outcomes of the China - Africa Cooperation Forum, emphasizing cooperation in multiple fields [3] - **CPI Data**: In May, 8 provinces' CPI rose year - on - year, 2 were flat, and 21 declined. CPI is expected to show a mild recovery [3] - **Debt Replacement**: As of the end of May, over 1.6 trillion yuan of replacement bonds were issued, completing over 80% of the annual quota [3] - **US Inflation**: US May CPI data was mild. Trump called for a 1 - percentage - point rate cut, and traders bet on two rate cuts this year, but the Fed may keep rates unchanged next week [3] Group 8: Industry Information - **Money Market Rates**: Most money market interest rates rose. For example, the 1 - day and 7 - day weighted average rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased [3] - **US Treasury Yields**: US treasury yields generally declined, driven by mild inflation data reducing expectations of short - term Fed rate hikes [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. The improvement of Sino - US relations boosts the export prospects of US soybeans, providing overall support for US soybean futures prices. Domestically, the recent significant increase in the operation rate of domestic oil mills is expected to accelerate the inventory accumulation of soybean meal. Affected by the recent strength of US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [2] - Oils: Night trading of soybean and palm oil showed a weak and volatile trend, while rapeseed oil closed higher. The Sino - US easing signal boosts the performance of soybean oil. The domestic soybean - related supply is gradually recovering with the increase in soybean arrivals, and soybean oil is expected to gradually accumulate inventory in the later period. The May Malaysian palm oil supply - demand data has a neutral impact on the market, and oils are expected to maintain a volatile trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 7694, 7970, 9149, 3047, 2557, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of - 64, - 146, - 39, 16, 11, and 26, and price change rates of - 0.82%, - 1.80%, - 3.15%, 0.53%, 0.43%, and 0.29% respectively [1] - Spreads and Ratios: There were changes in spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc. For example, the current value of Y9 - 1 was 50, and the previous value was 60 [1] International Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3876 (ringgit/ton), 1050 (cents/bushel), 48 (cents/pound), and 294 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of - 44, - 8, 0, - 2, and price change rates of - 1.12%, - 0.76%, 0.57%, - 0.54% respectively [1] Domestic Spot Market - Prices: The current spot prices of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. had different price change rates. For example, the price change rate of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was - 1.00% [1] - Basis: The current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, etc. were 266, 480 respectively [1] - Spreads: The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, etc. had changes compared with the previous values [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The current values of import and crushing profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. were - 648, - 121, etc., showing changes compared with the previous values [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. were 17,652, 340, 0 respectively, with some changes compared with the previous values [1] Industry Information - As of the week ending June 4, Argentine farmers sold 175.79 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season, with cumulative sales reaching 1963.45 million tons. Local oil mills purchased 128.1 million tons, and the export industry purchased 47.69 million tons [2] - From June 1 - 10, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.71%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.1%, and the output decreased by 17.24% [2] - As of June 8, the US soybean sowing was 90% complete, with a good - to - excellent rate of 68% [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are slightly consolidating. The consumption of polyolefins has entered a relative off - season, and the spot prices generally perform averagely. The price fluctuations of the futures market mainly follow the cost and market sentiment. The rebound of international oil prices helps polyolefins stop falling. In the future, the driving force is limited, but the valuation is not high, so polyolefins may gradually stop falling, build a bottom, and attempt a rebound [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7075, 7066, and 7102 respectively. There were declines with changes of - 3, - 1, - 4 and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.04%, - 0.01%, - 0.06%. The trading volumes were 24916, 157, 253230, and the open interests were 111392, 704, 536103 with changes of - 1662, 39, 5141. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, 9 - 1 months were 9, - 36, 27 compared to previous values of 11, - 39, 28 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6908, 6903, and 6960 respectively. There were increases with changes of 12, 14, 19 and corresponding percentage changes of 0.17%, 0.20%, 0.27%. The trading volumes were 16043, 147, 224195, and the open interests were 78596, 709, 501412 with changes of 151, 105, - 10063. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, 9 - 1 months were 5, - 57, 52 compared to previous values of 7, - 52, 45 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2284 yuan/ton, 6360 yuan/ton, 606 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6960 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2278 yuan/ton, 6360 yuan/ton, 608 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6970 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Wednesday (June 11), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 68.15 dollars per barrel, up 3.17 dollars or 4.88% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 64.60 - 68.37 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 69.77 dollars per barrel, up 2.90 dollars or 4.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 66.47 - 70.50 dollars [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently in a calm state before a potential upsurge, with various international and domestic news influencing different sectors [1]. - For key varieties, the report provides detailed analyses and outlooks, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil, with different trends and influencing factors for each [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The US Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's tariff measures may continue to be in effect during the appeal process [4]. - **Domestic News**: The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU until December 16, 2025 [5]. - **Industry News**: The online auction of coking coal from Mongolia's small TT company had all lots go unsold, with a total of 486,400 tons unsold in 10 auctions since the beginning of the year [6]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.55%, the FTSE China A50 Futures fell 0.18%, the US Dollar Index rose 0.16%, ICE Brent Crude fell 0.79%, London Gold Spot rose 0.03%, London Silver fell 0.60%, and other commodities also had corresponding price changes [7]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Indices**: US stock indices rose, while the previous trading day's domestic stock indices declined in the afternoon, with small - cap stocks leading the decline. The current valuation of major domestic indices is low, and the market is expected to consolidate in the short term, with potential for directional movement and increased volatility if new stimuli emerge [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed performance. The central bank's net withdrawal of funds led to a relatively loose market liquidity. With the US non - farm data exceeding expectations and the Fed's reduced expectation of interest rate cuts this year, and considering domestic economic data and the property market situation, the central bank is likely to maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 0.54% at night. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and the US proposed temporary measures in the Iran - US nuclear negotiations. In the short term, crude oil prices are resistant to decline, but in the long term, a 1.2 million - barrel - per - day increase in production is a major negative factor [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.13% at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventories increased, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term [13]. - **Rubber**: Rubber rebounded slightly. With good weather in domestic production areas and smooth new rubber supply in Thailand, supply pressure is emerging, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins rebounded slightly. The consumption of polyolefins has entered a off - season, and the spot price is average. The rebound of international oil prices helps stabilize polyolefins, and they may gradually stop falling and attempt to rebound [15][16]. - **Glass/Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined and consolidated. Glass production enterprise inventories increased, and soda ash futures were also in a low - level consolidation. Both are in a cycle of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance process [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver showed divergent trends, with gold oscillating and silver strengthening. US economic data affected short - term interest rate cut expectations, and the gold - silver ratio is being repaired. Gold is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short term [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to the intersection of multiple factors such as low concentrate processing fees, stable domestic downstream demand, and concerns about US tariffs [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may have a wide - range fluctuation. With the improvement of concentrate supply and the recovery of smelting supply expected, attention should be paid to factors such as US tariffs and downstream production [20]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.25% at night. With Trump's wavering tariff attitude and potential improvements in the ore end, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to weaken in the short term, and it may oscillate [21]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel fell 0.25% at night. With tight nickel ore supply in Indonesia and other factors, the nickel market has both positive and negative factors, and the price may be slightly bullish and oscillating in the short term [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased. Although the cathode production data is average, the cathode inventory is being digested. The overall fundamentals have not improved substantially, and attention should be paid to low - level capital games [23]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore demand is supported by strong production motivation of steel mills, but the global iron ore shipment has decreased recently. The medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large, and it is expected to be supported in the short term and weaken in the long term [24]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant for now. With the arrival of the rainy season and overseas tariff policies, the demand for steel is expected to weaken, and rebar may be weaker than hot - rolled coils in the short term [25]. - **Coking Coal/Coke**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke rebounded strongly, but the spot market responded slowly. With the implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law and the approaching of the rainy season, attention should be paid to the negative feedback [26]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats are expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The US - China relationship improvement affects soybean oil, and the Malaysian palm oil data has a neutral impact on the market [27]. - **Protein Meals**: Protein meals are expected to be strongly oscillating. The improvement of US - China relations supports US soybean prices, while domestic oil mills' high - volume operations may accelerate the accumulation of soybean meal inventory [28]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Corn prices are expected to break through the high level. The feed demand is weak, but the supply is tight in the spot market, and the main contract can be considered bullish at a low level in the medium - long term [29]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are under pressure at a high level. With the expected increase in new cotton supply in Xinjiang and weak downstream demand, it is recommended to build long positions at a low level and expect demand recovery in the medium - long term [30]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is oscillating. The 08 contract is basically following the spot freight rate, and its ability to break through the previous high depends on the price increase in July and August. With the increase in shipping capacity, the market is expected to continue to oscillate, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [31][32].

| | 20250611申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 幅波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | 锌 | 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产 ...