工业硅周报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 光伏需求下滑，工业硅震荡寻底 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅再度下探，主因中美贸易谈判充满不确定性， 光伏"5.31"前抢装潮临近尾声，工业品市场情绪相对低 迷。供应来看，新疆地区开工率继续回落，西南开工率保 持低位运行，内蒙和甘肃产量小幅回升，供应端整体承压 回落；从需求侧来看，多晶硅市场情绪十分悲观头部企业 暂停报价，硅片市场成交尚可但行情持续走弱，光伏电池 出现终端需求萎缩价格存在下探空间，组件分布式和集中 式倒挂现象持续，抢装期临近尾声新订单难以在5.31新规 实施前接入并网，4-5月光伏装机减速几成定局，工业硅 终端消费骤降令市场情绪难以好转，社会库存小幅降至 59.6，而广期所仓单库存仍接近7万手。 王 ...

Classification 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Classification 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated and converged. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, China released a package of financial policies, and partial progress was made on Trump's tariffs, easing market sentiment [3][6][7]. - Fundamentally, due to tariffs, lead ore raw materials remained tight, and domestic and foreign processing fees were stable at low levels. Primary lead smelters had a mix of production cuts and restarts. Shandong Hengbang started a one - month production cut at the beginning of the month, and Guangxi Southern will resume production in mid - May. The discount of spot quotes widened, and smelters were not keen to sell. The supply - demand structural contradiction of waste batteries was prominent. Secondary lead smelters suffered losses of 600 - 800 yuan/ton, and more smelters cut or extended production cuts, resulting in a continuous decline in supply [3][6]. - In terms of demand, battery consumption remained in the off - season. Enterprises faced high inventory pressure, raw material inventories were not digested, and the motivation for restocking after the holiday was insufficient, with demand mainly for rigid needs [3][6][7]. - Overall, tariff concerns eased, and market risk appetite recovered. The fundamentals remained weak in both supply and demand. The structural contradiction in raw material supply would exist in the medium - to - long term. The scope of production cuts by secondary lead smelters expanded, and primary lead smelters also carried out maintenance, showing a trend of shrinking supply. However, consumption continued in the off - season, and the high basis between futures and spot prices strengthened the expectation of inventory increase driven by warehouse receipts, dragging down the lead price. The game between cost and consumption continued, and it was expected that the lead price would continue to fluctuate [3][7] Classification 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | May 1 | May 9 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16840 | 16805 | - 35 | yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 1957 | 1985.5 | 28.5 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.61 | 8.46 | - 0.14 | | | SHFE Inventory | 46786 | 49504 | 2718 | tons | | LME Inventory | 264225 | 253425 | - 10800 | tons | | Social Inventory | 4.53 | 4.75 | 0.22 | ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 75 | - 90 | - 15 | yuan/ton | [4] 2. Market Review - After the May Day holiday, the main PB2506 contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated and converged, closing at 16805 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 0.21%. It fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. LME lead fluctuated, showing a pattern of first falling and then rising, closing at 1985.5 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 2.8% [5]. - In the spot market, as of May 9, the price of Honglu lead in the Shanghai market was 16750 - 16780 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2506 contract. In the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of Jiangtong and Jinde lead was reported at 16730 - 16780 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2505 or 2506 contract. Shanghai lead remained in a consolidation state. Sellers sold goods according to the market, and the discount of some quotes widened. The ex - factory quotes of smelters' direct sales sources were at a discount of 125 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price. Secondary lead smelters reduced sales. Some secondary refined lead quotes were at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises only made rigid - need purchases and bargained a lot. Some goods with expanded discounts were traded [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 9, the LME weekly inventory was 253425 tons, a weekly decrease of 10800 tons. The SHFE inventory was 49504 tons, an increase of 2718 tons from last week. As of May 8, the SMM five - region social inventory was 4.75 ten thousand tons, an increase of 0.22 ten thousand tons from April 30 and an increase of 0.16 ten thousand tons from May 6. After the holiday, downstream enterprises were more watchful, making rigid - need purchases and unable to quickly digest the lead ingot inventory accumulated during the holiday. At the same time, the basis between futures and spot prices widened to 120 - 220 yuan/ton, increasing the willingness of sellers to deliver to the warehouse. The inventory of deliverable brands transferred from factory warehouses to delivery warehouses, and the social inventory of lead ingots rose again, with the expectation of further increase [6] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 9, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 650 yuan/metal ton and - 30 dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous week [8]. - A medium - sized lead smelter in North China is expected to conduct annual routine maintenance in early June for about 35 days, which is expected to affect lead production by 9500 tons and silver production by about 10 tons. A large secondary lead smelter in East China has been unstable in production due to losses. Its production dropped to about 100 tons/day before the May Day holiday and has now completely stopped production, with the resumption date to be determined. According to a large battery group's secondary lead smelter, the arrival of waste lead - acid batteries is poor, and tight raw material inventory may lead to a production cut in mid - May. A small secondary lead smelter in South China plans to start a shutdown for maintenance this weekend due to exhausted raw material inventory and serious losses, affecting production by about 70 tons/day [8]. - Foreign media reported that Teck Resources is considering diverting the products of its Red Dog zinc mine in Alaska from the Chinese market to other regions to avoid tariff risks caused by the China - US trade war. The mine's output accounts for about 5% of the global zinc supply and 2.5% of the lead supply. Currently, more than 20% of its zinc concentrates are sold to China [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 related charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary lead and secondary refined lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, primary lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][12]

2025 年 5 月 12 日 警惕宏观扰动 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 镍价震荡延续 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 ⚫ 宏观面，全球多国央行相继降息，美联储维持原有利 率政策不变。即使美国一季度GDP增速转负，美联储 官员依然认为美国经济具有韧性，但也承认劳动力市 场与再通胀面临一定挑战。此外，中美经贸论谈开 启，但双方在会谈前夕态度均较为强硬。 ⚫ 基本面：印尼矿产协会再次下调镍矿内贸基准价格， ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment has relaxed compared to before, but there are still many uncertainties in tariffs and concerns about the economic outlook. The supply side of the fundamentals is stable, and the orders of aluminum - processing enterprises after the holiday still show resilience, creating an expected difference from before the holiday. As the peak consumption season is approaching, the expectation of weakening consumption is strong. It is necessary to continue to monitor inventory performance, and it is expected that the upward pressure on aluminum prices will gradually increase [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum for 3 months increased from 2391.5 yuan/ton on April 30, 2025, to 2418 yuan/ton on May 9, 2025, up 26.5 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum continuous - three price decreased from 19830 dollars/ton to 19445 dollars/ton, down 385 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio dropped from 8.3 to 8.0, a decrease of 0.3. The LME spot premium rose from - 27.81 dollars/ton to - 9.4 dollars/ton, an increase of 18.4 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased from 415575 tons to 403550 tons, a decrease of 12025 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 72590 tons to 65013 tons, a decrease of 7577 tons. The spot Yangtze River average price decreased from 20006.66667 yuan/ton to 19665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 341.7 yuan/ton. The spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The South China Storage spot average price decreased from 19936.66667 yuan/ton to 19620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 316.7 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased from 70 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased from 61.4 tons to 62 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased from 16365.01 yuan/ton to 16276.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.5 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased from 3641.66 yuan/ton to 3388.49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 253.2 yuan/ton [3] 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot in the spot market was 19948 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton compared to last week; the weekly average price of South China Storage spot was 19904 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton compared to last week. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. Traders still expect three interest rate cuts this year. The UK and the US reached a partial agreement on tariff trade terms. Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, from May 10th to 11th. The EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros worth of US goods. The domestic central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan". The domestic downstream aluminum - processing industry's operating rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9% compared to last week, with different performances among sectors. Primary aluminum alloy, industrial profiles, and cables performed well, while other sectors were weak. According to the current order situation, the operating rate of aluminum - processing enterprises is expected to remain stable next week [4] 3. Market Outlook - The macro - environment has relaxed compared to before, but there are still many uncertainties in tariffs and concerns about the economic outlook. The supply side of the fundamentals is stable, and the orders of aluminum - processing enterprises after the holiday still show resilience, creating an expected difference from before the holiday. As the peak consumption season is approaching, the expectation of weakening consumption is strong. It is necessary to continue to monitor inventory performance, and it is expected that the upward pressure on aluminum prices will gradually increase [7] 4. Industry News - The US vice - president said that negotiations with the EU are ongoing, hoping for the opening of the European market to US goods. The EU trade commissioner said that if the negotiations fail, the EU will announce details of the next counter - measures against US tariffs on Thursday. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association said that although copper, aluminum, and gold are on the exemption list, the US has imposed an additional 20% tariff on all imported products from China this year, raising the "301" and "232" tariffs on aluminum products from 10% to 25% and initiating a "232" investigation on copper. Since the Sino - US trade frictions in 2018 - 2019, China's exports of non - ferrous metal products to the US have dropped significantly. Alcoa's San Ciprián plant was affected by a large - scale power outage in Spain, and the company is assessing the full extent of the operational and financial impacts [8] 5. Relevant Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum current - month to continuous - one spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium of material trade, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][15]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Soybean Meal [1] Report Date - May 12, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract rose 8.25 to close at 1052.25 cents per bushel, a 0.79% increase; the September soybean meal contract fell 21 to close at 2899 yuan per ton, a 0.72% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 480 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 13.26% decrease; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 15 to close at 2551 yuan per ton, a 0.59% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 10 to 2430 yuan per ton, a 0.41% decrease [4][7]. - The fast sowing progress of US soybeans is conducive to the expectation of increased production, and there is no driving force in the weather market, so US soybeans continue to fluctuate. After the holiday, the soybean customs clearance process improved, the oil mill operating rate increased significantly, the soybean meal inventory stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply is expected to increase; the spot price dropped significantly, the feed enterprise inventory is at a low level in the same period, the提货 rhythm accelerated, and the post - holiday restocking transactions increased significantly. Although the China - US economic and trade negotiations have made substantial progress, factors such as the weather theme to be fermented and the expected tightening of the new - season balance sheet form support below, showing a weak and narrow - range fluctuation [4][7]. - In the next two weeks, the weather in the US soybean production areas will be good, which helps to maintain a fast sowing progress. At the same time, pay attention to the release of the May USDA report, and US soybeans may continue to fluctuate. In April, due to the impact of customs clearance policies, the soybean arrival volume was lower than expected, and the delayed part may be cleared in May. The domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to further increase, the soybean meal inventory will stop falling and rebound, and the supply will become more abundant; the China - US economic and trade negotiations have initially reached a consensus, pay attention to the subsequent process, but US soybeans generally show resistance to decline in the weather market, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate weakly [4][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The CBOT soybean price rose 8.25 to 1052.25 cents per bushel, a 0.79% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans fell 7 to 433 dollars per ton, a 1.59% decrease; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 2 to 453 dollars per ton, a 0.44% decrease; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased 20 to 75.66 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal contract fell 21 to 2899 yuan per ton, a 0.72% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal contract rose 15 to 2551 yuan per ton, a 0.59% increase; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 36 to 348 yuan per ton; the East China spot price fell 200 to 3200 yuan per ton, a 5.88% decrease; the South China spot price fell 480 to 3140 yuan per ton, a 13.26% decrease; the South China spot - futures price difference decreased 459 to 241 yuan per ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 30%, the market expected 31%, the previous week was 18%, and the same period last year was 23%; the soybean emergence rate was 7%, the same period last year was 8%, and the five - year average was 5%. As of the week of May 6, about 15% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than 11% in the same period last year. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production areas will be 40 - 50mm, slightly lower than the average level, which is conducive to sowing, and the temperature is generally higher than normal, and the fast sowing progress is conducive to the expectation of increased production [8]. - As of the week of May 1, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year increased by 37.7 tons, the previous week was 42.8 tons, the cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 4772 tons, the sales progress was 96.1%, and the same period last year was 4234 tons; in that week, the net sales of US soybeans to China in the 2024/2025 season were almost zero, and the cumulative purchase volume of China in the current year was 2248 tons [8]. - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.75 dollars per bushel, the previous week was 1.92 dollars per bushel, lower than 3.29 dollars per bushel in the same period in 2023; the truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 49.03 cents per pound, the previous week was 49.32 cents per pound; the price of 48% protein soybean meal in Illinois soybean processing plants was 287.08 dollars per short ton, the previous week was 289 dollars per short ton; the average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.71 dollars per bushel, the previous week was 10.62 dollars per bushel [9]. - According to Conab data, the harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 97.7%, the previous week was 94.8%, the same period last year was 94.3%, and the five - year average was 96.3%, and the harvesting work was basically completed. The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) expects that the Brazilian soybean exports in May will reach 12.6 million tons, and the same period last year was 13.47 million tons [9]. - As of the week of May 7, 2025, the soybean harvesting progress in Argentina was 44.9%, lower than 47% in the same period last year, but the progress has accelerated significantly due to less precipitation. According to the crop weekly report of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentine producers have harvested half of the early - sown soybeans, and the yields in the core agricultural areas and Cordoba Province are higher than expected [10]. - As of the week of May 2, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 4.7464 million tons, an increase of 151,600 tons from the previous week and 556,300 tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 82,100 tons, an increase of 7300 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 443,000 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 4.3008 million tons, an increase of 1.7473 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 475,100 tons from the same period last year; the national port soybean inventory was 5.532 million tons, an increase of 329,200 tons from the previous week and 83,500 tons from the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the national daily average soybean meal transaction volume was 264,600 tons, of which the spot transaction was 49,650 tons and the forward transaction was 214,950 tons, and the daily average total transaction volume in the week before the holiday was 25,300 tons; the daily average soybean meal提货 volume was 151,000 tons, and the previous week was 137,500 tons; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.846 million tons, and the previous week was 1.523 million tons; the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 4.45 days, and the previous week was 5.04 days [11]. 3. Industry News - Brazilian farmers plan to expand the soybean planting area in the main planting areas by about 500,000 hectares in the 2025/2026 season starting in September. In the current season, Brazilian farmers planted a record 47.8 million hectares of soybeans and harvested 172.1 million tons [12]. - From April 28 to May 2, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state was 623.09 reais per ton, and the previous week was 643.31 reais per ton. In that week, the soybean meal price in the state was 1691.22 reais per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5806.38 reais per ton [13]. - Analysts predict that the US soybean production in the 2025/2026 season will be 4.338 billion bushels, the estimated range is between 4.3 - 4.4 billion bushels, and the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum forecast is 4.37 billion bushels; the US soybean yield per acre in the 2025/2026 season will be 52.5 bushels, the estimated range is between 51.9 - 53.5 bushels per acre, and the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum forecast is 52.5 bushels per acre; the US soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 362 million bushels, the estimated range is between 267 - 675 million bushels; the global soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 126.02 million tons, the estimated range is between 120.74 - 137 million tons [13]. - The soybean exports of Mato Grosso state in the 2025/2026 season will decrease by 4% compared with the previous season. It is expected to export 29.8 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season, an increase of 180,000 tons from the previous monthly forecast, reflecting the increase in Chinese demand. It is expected that the demand for soybeans in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/2026 season will reach nearly 13.1 million tons, a 1.1% increase from the 2024/2025 season. The demand for soybeans from other regions of Brazil in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/2026 season is expected to decrease by 22% to 4.5 million tons compared with the 2024/2025 season [14]. - The Canadian rapeseed production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 18.2 million tons, the estimated range is 16.5 - 20.1 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous year. The total planting area is expected to be 8.59 million hectares, a 3.5% decrease from the previous year. The soil moisture in the main production areas in south - western Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba has been at the lowest level in six years since February, while the soil moisture in Alberta is still relatively healthy. The summer weather outlook shows that from June to August, the temperature will be higher than normal and the rainfall in the southern prairie will be lower than normal, which may put downward pressure on yields [14]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the forecast of the 2024/2025 soybean harvest from 48.6 million tons to 50 million tons, saying that the yield is better than expected. Argentine producers have harvested half of the early - sown soybeans, and the yields in the core agricultural areas and Cordoba Province are higher than expected [15]. - The commercial sales of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season have reached 57% of the expected output, which is delayed compared with the same period last year and the historical average. Compared with last month, the soybean sales in Brazil increased by 6.3 percentage points. In the same period last year, the soybean sales completed 64.6% of the expected output, and the five - year average was even higher at 70.3%. Considering that the company has estimated the soybean output to reach a record 172.45 million tons, the soybean sales in the country have reached 97.88 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, the Brazilian soybean sales volume has reached 7.9% of the expected output of 182.57 million tons, about 14.35 million tons. Although the sales have improved, they are still lower than 9.9% in the same period last year and far lower than the historical average of 17.2% [15]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the soybean meal main contract trend, the spot - futures price difference of soybean meal, the M 9 - 1 month - to - month difference of soybean meal, the management fund CBOT net position, the regional soybean meal spot price, the precipitation and temperature in US soybean production areas, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress, the US soybean weekly net sales volume, the US soybean cumulative export sales volume to the world and China, the US soybean weekly export volume and weekly net sales volume to China, the US oil mill crushing profit, the soybean meal weekly average daily transaction volume and提货 volume, the port and oil mill soybean inventory, the oil mill weekly crushing volume and operating rate, the oil mill soybean meal inventory, and the feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days [16][17][18][21][23][25][29][31][32][36][38][39][40][43][45][46][47][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The start of Sino-US economic and trade talks eased the tense situation, and the market adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The Fed's hawkish stance delayed interest rate cuts, slightly boosting the US dollar. The negative effects of tariff shocks on the global economy gradually emerged, hindering the upward movement of copper prices. However, the shortage of refined copper overseas provided strong fundamental support. Domestically, a package of financial incremental policies by the central bank boosted market confidence, and China's acceleration of the domestic economic cycle and the construction of a strategic cooperation system with "Belt and Road" countries will effectively offset the negative impact of US tariffs [2][8]. - Overall, the Sino-US economic and trade meeting achieved substantial progress and reached important consensus, and the two sides will issue a joint statement soon. The Fed maintains a hawkish stance and delays interest rate cuts, and the unexpected recovery of the eurozone economy will continue to be loose. Domestically, the central bank has launched a package of financial incremental policy combinations to stabilize market confidence. Fundamentally, the medium-term tightening pattern of concentrates remains unchanged, the supply of imported refined copper in China is tight, the premium of Yangshan warehouse receipts is high, and social inventories continue to decline. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile at a high level, waiting for the details of the Sino-US trade negotiations to be disclosed [3][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - LME copper rose from $9,125.50/ton on April 30 to $9,439.00/ton on May 9, an increase of $313.50 or 3.44% [4]. - COMEX copper rose from 461 cents/pound on April 30 to 465.4 cents/pound on May 9, an increase of 4.4 cents or 0.95% [4]. - SHFE copper rose from 77,220 yuan/ton on April 30 to 77,450 yuan/ton on May 9, an increase of 230 yuan or 0.30% [4]. - International copper rose from 68,470 yuan/ton on April 30 to 68,750 yuan/ton on May 9, an increase of 280 yuan or 0.41% [4]. - The Shanghai-London ratio decreased from 8.46 to 8.21 [4]. - The LME spot premium changed from -$6.80/ton on April 30 to $49.19/ton on May 9, an increase of $55.99 or -823.38% [4]. - The Shanghai spot premium decreased from 230 yuan/ton on April 30 to 80 yuan/ton on May 9, a decrease of 150 yuan [4]. - LME inventory decreased from 200,150 tons on April 30 to 191,775 tons on May 9, a decrease of 8,375 tons or 4.18% [7]. - COMEX inventory increased from 144,023 short tons on April 30 to 160,250 short tons on May 9, an increase of 16,227 short tons or 11.27% [7]. - SHFE inventory decreased from 89,289 tons on April 30 to 80,687 tons on May 9, a decrease of 8,602 tons or 9.63% [7]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased from 93,500 tons on April 30 to 90,500 tons on May 9, a decrease of 3,000 tons or 3.21% [7]. - Total inventory decreased from 526,962 tons on April 30 to 523,212 tons on May 9, a decrease of 3,750 tons or 0.71% [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices fluctuated at a high level last week. The start of Sino-US economic and trade talks eased the tense situation, and the market adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The Fed's hawkish stance delayed interest rate cuts, slightly boosting the US dollar. The negative effects of tariff shocks on the global economy gradually emerged, hindering the upward movement of copper prices. However, the shortage of refined copper overseas provided strong fundamental support. Domestically, a package of financial incremental policies by the central bank boosted market confidence, and China's acceleration of the domestic economic cycle and the construction of a strategic cooperation system with "Belt and Road" countries will effectively offset the negative impact of US tariffs [2][8]. - As of May 9, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 523,000 tons, and the global inventory decreased slightly. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the LME 0 - 3 shifted to a B structure, with the proportion of cancelled warrants continuing to rise to 43.1%. SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 8,000 tons, showing obvious characteristics of the consumption peak season. Bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons. Last week, the Yangshan copper bill of lading premium rose to $110, reaching a two-year high. The COMEX US copper premium narrowed to $600 - 800/ton, but overseas deliverable supplies continued to flow into North America, causing the COMEX visible inventory to rise to 160,000 tons at a high level. The Shanghai-London ratio decreased to 8.21 mainly due to the recent significant appreciation of the RMB [8]. - Sino-US economic and trade high-level meetings are imminent. The global trade situation is gradually easing and moving in a favorable direction. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5% in its May meeting, and Powell said that there is no need to rush to cut interest rates. Domestically, the central bank cut the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 0.1% to 1.4% in early May, cut the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5%, and is expected to release about 1 trillion yuan of medium- and long-term liquidity into the market. The central bank also announced a series of other financial policies to boost the confidence of China's capital market [10]. - This week, the spot TC widened to -$43/ton. The global mine end's medium-term tightening pattern remains unchanged. In terms of refined copper, China's refined copper output in April was 1.126 million tons, continuing to rise month-on-month, but the imported supplies were scarce in early May. From the demand side, power grid investment projects have started one after another, and the operating rate of cable enterprises in April rebounded to 81.3%. The new energy vehicle production and sales growth rate exceeded 40%, and the traditional industry showed peak season characteristics. The domestic social inventory continued to decline significantly to around 12 tons, and the near-month contract on the disk maintained a large B structure [11]. 3.3 Industry News - First Quantum's copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 99,700 tons, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. Its 2025 copper guidance production is 380,000 - 440,000 tons (excluding the resumption of production of the Panama copper mine). The Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia had a copper production of 46,500 tons in the first quarter, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3%. The Kansanshi smelter plans to carry out a six-week maintenance shutdown in the second quarter of 2025. The SENTINEL copper mine in Zambia had a copper production of 46,400 tons in the first quarter, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18%. The mine plans to carry out a four-day comprehensive maintenance shutdown in the second quarter of 2025 [13]. - Teck Resources' copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 106,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.1%. The Highland Valley project in Canada had a copper production of 29,500 tons in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.4%. The QBII project in Chile had a copper production of 42,000 tons in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 27.1%. The production in this quarter was affected by an 18-day shutdown in January and a power outage in late February [14]. - According to Mysteel research data, last week, the processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 500 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous week. After the holiday, the downstream replenishment willingness slowed down after the high-level fluctuation of copper prices, and the terminal orders were mainly for rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the operation of China's refined copper rod enterprises will continue to recover in mid-May [15]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, SHFE and bonded area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, SHFE copper basis trend, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][19][20].

2025 年 5 月 9 日 下游需求转淡 钢价偏弱走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 钢材月报 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 14 ⚫ 供给端：上月钢材生产总体平稳，结构上长流程增 产、短流程减产。螺纹钢周产量维持在230万吨左右， 长流程贡献202万吨，短流程减至26.7万吨；热卷产 量保持320万吨高位，钢厂铁水向板材倾斜。短期高 供应仍是主基调，后市关注政策调控对市场的影响。 ⚫ 需求端：钢材继续面临着内需缓慢恢复、外需承压 的不利格局。房建需求仍是主要拖累项，基建支撑 有限。新房销售及施工端未见明显改善，4月建材需 求 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic that alumina will remain in a low - level oscillation this month, and the aluminum price will fluctuate weakly this month [3][68][69] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Alumina futures stopped falling this month after three months of decline. The main contract fluctuated narrowly between 2800 - 2900 yuan/ton, and closed at 2729 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 9.03%. The monthly structure changed from a slight Contango to a Back structure in the near - term [9] - The Shanghai Aluminum futures price dropped from 20500 yuan/ton to 18960 yuan/ton at the beginning of April and then fluctuated between 19500 - 20000 yuan/ton, closing at 19910 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 2.71%. LME aluminum fell to 2300 US dollars/ton at the beginning of the month and then rebounded slightly, closing at 2392 US dollars/ton, down 5.75%. The Shanghai - LME aluminum ratio fluctuated between 8.27 and 8.17, with an import loss of about 1000 yuan/ton [10] 2. Macroeconomics 2.1 Overseas - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in May. The US tariff policy is in a 90 - day chaotic period of suspending the collection of "reciprocal tariffs". The US imposes a 145% tariff on Chinese goods and may impose a 245% tariff, while exempting some goods from a 125% "reciprocal tariff". The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is slow [13] - In April, the US added 177,000 non - farm jobs, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The core PCE in March increased by 2.65% year - on - year. The real GDP in the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. The manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7%. The consumer confidence index and the enterprise capital investment intention index both hit new lows since 2020 [14] - The eurozone inflation rate dropped to 2.2% in April. The first - quarter GDP increased by 0.4% quarter - on - quarter and 1.2% year - on - year. The US tariff is expected to have a negative impact on the European economy, and the GDP growth in the second and third quarters is expected to stagnate or only increase by 0.1% [15] 2.2 Domestic - In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year. In March, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added value all exceeded expectations. The real estate development investment decreased by 9.9% year - on - year, and the new - built commercial housing sales area decreased by 3% year - on - year [16][17] - In March, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. M2 increased by 7.0% year - on - year, and social financing stock increased by 8.4% year - on - year. The year - on - year growth rates of industrial enterprise revenue and profit both improved [17] - The Politburo meeting in April set a positive tone, and subsequent reserve requirements and interest rates were cut, releasing a signal of "moderate easing" [18] 3. Alumina Market Analysis 3.1 Bauxite - Inland mines continued to resume production in April. Due to the decline in alumina prices, inland enterprises lowered the bauxite procurement base price. By the end of April, the bauxite prices in Shanxi, Henan, Guizhou, and Guangxi all decreased compared with the previous month [23] - In the first quarter of 2025, China's bauxite imports increased by about 1.075 billion tons compared with the same period last year, with an increase of about 940 million tons from Guinea. The main import countries are Guinea (77.3%) and Australia (16.6%). The bauxite price is under pressure [24] 3.2 Alumina Supply - In March 2025, China's alumina production was 7.558 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In April, there were batch maintenance and production cuts, and new capacities in Hebei and Guangxi were put into production. It is expected that the daily output in April will be slightly lower than that in March, and the production will be about 7.3 million tons [25] - In March 2024, China's alumina exports were 144,100 tons, and imports were 303,800 tons. The export window closed in late February, and the export volume in April is expected to decrease [26] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Spot - By the end of April, the alumina futures exchange inventory was 271,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous month, and the exchange factory inventory was 7,200 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous month [26] - In April, the alumina spot premium initially remained around 200 yuan/ton and then fell to around 100 yuan/ton. The overall transaction was light [26] 3.4 Alumina Cost and Profit - In March 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of China's alumina industry was 3209.58 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% and a year - on - year increase of 14.11%. The decline in raw material prices led to a slight decrease in costs [27] 3.5 Alumina Viewpoint - The large - scale production cuts in mid - April helped the alumina price stop falling. In May, there were batch maintenance and production cuts in the south, and new production of 1.6 million tons in the north began. The alumina market is expected to oscillate at a low level this month, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations in the supply - demand balance [3][28][29] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis 4.1 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In March 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.7116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. In April, there were both production increases and decreases. It is estimated that the production in April was about 3.615 million tons [42] - In March 2025, the global (excluding China) alumina production was 4.821 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.66%. It is expected that the production in April will be 4.713 million tons [42] - In March 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 222,000 tons, and exports were about 9,000 tons. The net import is expected to remain high in April [43] 4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - By April 30, the aluminum ingot inventory was 614,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 151,000 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 296,000 tons from the previous month [43] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 77,000 tons to 69,000 tons by the end of April [44] 4.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - In April, the electrolytic aluminum spot price was basically at a premium, with a maximum premium of 60 yuan/ton and a minimum slight discount of 10 yuan/ton. The LME discount fluctuated between - 20 and - 40 US dollars/ton [45] 4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In April, the theoretical average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,448.79 yuan/ton, a decrease of 699.4 yuan/ton from the previous month. The monthly theoretical profit was 3,467.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 108.21 yuan/ton from the previous month [48] 5. Consumption Analysis 5.1 Aluminum Processing - In April, the aluminum processing industry still performed well, but there was obvious structural differentiation. The production and orders of building profiles, industrial profiles, and aluminum cables increased, while the production of aluminum plate, strip, and foil and aluminum alloy maintained stability. The decline in the aluminum price center of gravity partially alleviated the replenishment cost pressure, but the demand transmission lag suppressed the replenishment willingness [62] 5.2 Domestic Terminal Consumption - From January to March, the national real estate development investment decreased by 9.9% year - on - year, and the new - start, construction, and completion areas all decreased year - on - year [63] - In March, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.237 million, a year - on - year increase of 40.1%. From January to March, the sales volume was 3.075 million, a year - on - year increase of 47.1% [63] - In March, the completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 95.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 24.8%. In April, the aluminum cable enterprises had sufficient orders, and new orders are expected to land in late May [64] - In March 2025, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 20.24GW, a year - on - year increase of 124.39%. From January to March, the cumulative newly - added installed capacity was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 30.54% [65] 5.3 Aluminum Product Exports - In March 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 506,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17% and a month - on - month increase of 24.02%. From January to March, the cumulative exports were 1.365 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6%. The export volume is expected to decline month - on - month [66] 6. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the US economic outlook is uncertain, and the Fed is difficult to cut interest rates. China's monetary policy has released a signal of "moderate easing" [68] - Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level this month, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance [68] - For electrolytic aluminum, the supply increases slightly, the consumption is at the end of the seasonal peak season, and the inventory starts to accumulate after the May Day holiday. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly this month [69]

棕榈油月报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 增产周期格局下 棕榈油或震荡偏弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 | 一、油脂市场行情回顾 4 | | --- | | 1.1 油脂市场走势 4 | | 二、基本面分析 6 | | 2.1 MPOB 报告 6 | | 2.2 马棕产量和出口 7 | | 2.3 印度尼西亚情况 8 | | 2.4 印度植物油进口 9 | | 2.5 中国油脂进口 10 | | 2.6 国内油脂库存 12 | | 三、总结与后市展望 13 | 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112 ...

豆粕月报 2025 年 5 月 9 日 关注5月USDA报告 连粕或震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/21 图表目录 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 国际方面：中美经贸谈判进入长周期的博弈过程，在当 前税率的情况下，对远月合约仍形成支撑。4月USDA报告 对美国和巴西大豆调整有限，新季美豆播种季开启，整 体进度较快，有利于产量增加，播种初期天气较为良好； 新年度美豆种植面积下调，或有供应收紧预期，关注 ...