Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's optimistic sentiment has cooled as the positive impact of the Fed's rate cut has materialized. The fundamentals are expected to show a situation of both supply and demand increasing. Primary lead smelters will resume production in the second half of the month, and some secondary lead smelters will resume production due to profit recovery, leading to an expected increase in supply. At the same time, the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises has improved, and purchases have increased. With multiple factors at play, it is expected that lead prices will remain volatile at high levels in the short term, and there may be a slight adjustment after the downstream stocking ends [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From September 12th to September 19th, the SHFE lead price rose from 17,040 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,019 dollars/ton to 2,003 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.44 to 8.56, an increase of 0.12; the SHFE inventory decreased by 9,229 tons to 57,332 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 9,275 tons to 220,300 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons; the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead switched to PB2511, and the futures price fluctuated narrowly at a high level, closing at 17,180 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.76%. LME lead fluctuated sideways around 2,000 dollars/ton, closing at 2,003 dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.79%. In the spot market, the supply of goods was limited, and holders held firm on prices. Downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand and preferred to buy directly from smelters [5] Industry News - In the week of September 12th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 350 yuan/metal ton compared with the previous week, while the average imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 10 dollars/dry ton to - 100 dollars/dry ton [8] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][13][17][20][21]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 22, 2025 [3] - Core Theme: Resource Disturbance and Game Intensify, Lithium Price Fluctuates Widely [3] Group 2: Core Views and Strategies - Last Week's Review: Due to the unclear final ruling of Jiangxi mines, the market took a break after a long - term game. With the return of the logic of over - capacity governance, the price slightly increased. However, both bulls and bears lacked confidence in the future of Jiangxi mines on September 30, and the price remained stable during the week [4] - Future Views: This week is the end of the month, and whether Jiangxi lithium mines can continue production will be gradually revealed. The bulls and bears will intensively game under various information, leading to wide - range fluctuations in lithium prices. Fundamentally, although lithium prices have dropped significantly, the supply side is less sensitive to price drops under the protection of upstream salt factory hedging orders, and production remains at a high level. The energy - storage market continues to be hot, with saturated export orders and strong demand for photovoltaic glass. The energy - storage peak season is approaching, indicating good consumption resilience. The power terminal faces slow - down pressure in growth due to a high base. There is a structural contradiction between the subsidy funds tilting upwards and the sinking of terminal consumption, which may not effectively drive significant growth in the consumption peak season, but the consumption increment expectation can still continue. Overall, carbonate lithium may still be affected by the situation of Jiangxi resources, and the actual driving force of fundamentals is limited, with lithium prices likely to fluctuate widely [4][14] Group 3: Market Data - Imported Lithium Ore (1.3% - 2.2%): The price on September 19, 2025, was $136/ton, down $2 or 1.45% from September 12 [5] - Imported Lithium Concentrate (5.5% - 6%): The price on September 19, 2025, was $812/ton, down $9 or 1.10% from September 12 [5] - Domestic Lithium Concentrate (5.5% - 6%): The price on September 19, 2025, was 812 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 1.10% from September 12 [5] - Spot Price of Battery - Grade Carbonate Lithium: On September 19, 2025, it was 74,000 yuan/ton, up 2,800 yuan or 3.93% from September 12 [5] - Spot Price of Industrial - Grade Carbonate Lithium: On September 19, 2025, it was 70,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 0.28% from September 12 [5] - Main Contract Price of Carbonate Lithium: On September 19, 2025, it was 73,800 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan or 3.62% from September 12 [5] - Battery - Grade Lithium Hydroxide (Coarse): On September 19, 2025, it was 73,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 0.14% from September 12 [5] - Battery - Grade Lithium Hydroxide (Fine): On September 19, 2025, it was 78,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 0.13% from September 12 [5] - Total Carbonate Lithium Inventory: As of September 19, it was 130,446 tons, up 280 tons or 0.22% from the previous period [5][13] - Lithium Iron Phosphate Price: On September 19, 2025, it was 33,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.30% from September 12 [5] - Lithium Cobalt Oxide Price: On September 19, 2025, it was 219,000 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan or 1.86% from September 12 [5] - Ternary Material Price (811): On September 19, 2025, it was 145,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from September 12 [5] - Ternary Material Price (622): On September 19, 2025, it was 124,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from September 12 [5] Group 4: Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Supervision and Delivery: As of September 19, 2025, the warehouse - receipt scale of Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 39,484 tons, with the latest matching transaction price of 74,700 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2511 was 281,200 lots [7] - Supply Side: As of September 19, the weekly carbonate lithium production was 21,125 tons, an increase of 125 tons from the previous period. Recently, new production capacities have been released from salt lakes at home and abroad, and the mica - based lithium extraction in Jiangxi, China, shows signs of recovery. The overall supply side is stable. Although the decline in lithium prices has shifted from boosting to dragging down lithium concentrate, the price decline of imported lithium concentrate is similar to that of mica, and the relative economic advantage of lithium concentrate still exists, which may support the continued popularity of spodumene - based lithium extraction. Without a significant decline in lithium prices, lithium salt supply may remain at a high level in the medium - to - long term [7] - Lithium Salt Import: In July, the carbonate lithium import volume was about 13,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. Among them, about 8,584 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month decrease of 27.6%, accounting for about 62.2%. 3,950 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month decrease of 22.5%, accounting for about 28.6%. Chile's carbonate lithium export volume in July was about 20,900 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 4% and 43% respectively. The scale of carbonate lithium exported to China was about 13,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 33%, accounting for about 65.07% of Chile's total exports [8] - Lithium Ore Import: In July, the total lithium ore import volume was about 750,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. Among them, 427,000 tons were imported from Australia, a month - on - month increase of 67.2%, accounting for about 56.88%; about 64,000 tons were imported from Zimbabwe, a month - on - month decrease of 36.2%, accounting for about 8.5%; about 106,000 tons were imported from South Africa, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, accounting for 14.1%; and about 116,000 tons were imported from Nigeria, a month - on - month increase of 47.3%. The significant increase in the import volume of spodumene concentrate in July was mainly due to the significant increase in mica ore prices, which made the relative economic benefits of spodumene ore more obvious, leading to a significant increase in the operating rate of spodumene - based lithium extraction capacity and thus boosting the demand for lithium ore [9][10] - Demand - Downstream Cathode Materials: As of September 19, the total lithium iron phosphate production was about 78,226 tons, with an operating rate of 68.84%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 50,450 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period. The total ternary material production was about 17,960 tons, with an operating rate of 47%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 12,825 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. In terms of price, as of September 19, the ternary material price was relatively stable, with the 6 - series ternary price remaining at 141,700 yuan/ton and the 8 - series price at 147,400 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate for power increased from 34,700 yuan/ton to 34,800 yuan/ton, and the price for energy - storage increased from 34,050 yuan/ton to 34,200 yuan/ton. Overall, there is a slight structural differentiation in the cathode material market, mainly because the energy - storage consumption is hot while the power terminal is relatively stable. Since domestic energy - storage projects are prohibited from using ternary batteries, the price of lithium iron phosphate materials is relatively strong, and the ternary price has remained stable recently. In the future, due to the structural contradiction in the power terminal, the demand intensity of the energy - storage market may still be better than that of the power market, and the price resilience of lithium iron phosphate may be stronger than that of ternary materials [11] - New - Energy Vehicles: From September 1 - 14, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 438,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6% compared with the same period in September last year and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The retail penetration rate of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 59.8%, and the cumulative retail volume since the beginning of this year was 8.008 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. From high - frequency data, the consumption growth rate of new - energy vehicles has turned positive, and the retail market has marginally recovered. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, the inventory of the passenger vehicle market at the end of August has dropped to 3.16 million vehicles, a decrease of about 240,000 vehicles from the high of 3.5 million vehicles in April. This shows that both car manufacturers and channels have actively reduced inventory. From the production of new - energy vehicles, since March this year, the production has been almost flat, and the production - sales ratio has continued to rise, indicating that vehicle manufacturers have a clear intention to reduce inventory. On the one hand, it is to relieve the pressure on cash flow from the 60 - day accounts - payable period, and on the other hand, it may be due to a cautious expectation of the future market. The Passenger Car Association predicts that the new subsidy policy is more inclined to high - end models, while the current social purchasing power has shifted downwards. The mismatch between the consumption structure and the subsidy structure may limit the driving force of the subsidy policy on demand [12] - Inventory: As of September 19, the total carbonate lithium inventory was 130,446 tons, a cumulative increase of about 280 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 26,095 tons, a decrease of about 460 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 64,867 tons, a decrease of about 119 tons from the previous period; and the exchange inventory was 39,484 tons, an increase of 859 tons from the previous week [13] This Week's Outlook - This week is the end of the month, and whether Jiangxi lithium mines can continue production will be gradually revealed. The bulls and bears will intensively game under various information, leading to wide - range fluctuations in lithium prices. Fundamentally, although lithium prices have dropped significantly, the supply side is less sensitive to price drops under the protection of upstream salt factory hedging orders, and production remains at a high level. The energy - storage market continues to be hot, with saturated export orders and strong demand for photovoltaic glass. The energy - storage peak season is approaching, indicating good consumption resilience. The power terminal faces slow - down pressure in growth due to a high base. There is a structural contradiction between the subsidy funds tilting upwards and the sinking of terminal consumption, which may not effectively drive significant growth in the consumption peak season, but the consumption increment expectation can still continue. Overall, carbonate lithium may still be affected by the situation of Jiangxi resources, and the actual driving force of fundamentals is limited, with lithium prices likely to fluctuate widely [14] Group 5: Industry News - Tianqi Lithium Industry: The company's pilot project for an annual production of 50 tons of lithium sulfide has been officially launched. On September 16, Tianqi Lithium Industry stated on the interactive platform that in the research field of key materials for next - generation high - performance lithium batteries, the new electrolytic preparation technology has completed experimental - level verification, and the construction of the pilot line is being actively promoted; the experimental platform for the development of stable - state alloy anodes has been improved, with the ability to develop from "gram - level to kilogram - level to hundred - kilogram - level", and five types of binary lithium - alloy anode materials have entered the verification stage by battery cell customers; a stable production capacity of 300 - mm wide lithium strips has been established, and the preparation of ultra - thin composite strips has been achieved; in terms of sulfide solid - state electrolyte materials, based on the preparation work for the industrialization of lithium sulfide, the company's pilot project for an annual production of 50 tons of lithium sulfide has been officially launched in response to the demand for lithium sulfide from downstream sulfide solid - state electrolytes. The project uses self - developed new technologies and equipment for lithium sulfide preparation, with low - risk and rapid mass - production capabilities [15] - Zijin Mining: The 20,000 - ton - per - year carbonate lithium project in Argentina has been put into production. On September 14, according to Zijin Mining, on September 12 local time in Argentina, the commissioning ceremony of the 20,000 - ton - per - year carbonate lithium project of Lithium Kesi 3Q Lithium Salt Lake, a subsidiary of Zijin Mining, was held in Fiambala City, Catamarca Province. Currently, the pre - work such as the permit approval for the second - phase project is being carried out in an orderly manner, with a planned carbonate lithium production capacity of 40,000 tons/year. After the full operation of both phases, the annual production capacity is expected to reach 60,000 - 80,000 tons [15] - Hubei Liyuan: The production capacity of lithium iron phosphate has been upgraded and put into production. Hubei Liyuan, a subsidiary of Longpan Technology, announced that after more than a month of production - line upgrading and transformation, the A and B lines of the iron phosphate workshop have been fully put into production, with the production capacity steadily increasing and exceeding expectations, and the quality parameters of the offline products meeting the standards. The total investment of this project is 3 billion yuan, including a production base with an annual output of 100,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate and 50,000 tons of iron phosphate, mainly supplying to leading enterprises such as Tesla and CATL [15] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the prices, production, and import volume of carbonate lithium, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and battery production, with data sources from iFinD, Antaike, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][19][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate decision was in line with market expectations, with the dot - plot indicating 2 more potential rate cuts this year and 1 in 2026. Powell emphasized the need to prevent labor market risks and the existence of inflation risks [3]. - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association slightly raised the reference price for the second - phase laterite nickel ore in September, but the overall impact on the spot market was limited. Driven by the "Golden September and Silver October", ferronickel still had an upward trend, but the increase was weakening. Nickel salts remained popular, with the production of ternary materials increasing monthly, and the consumption of power terminals improving marginally. Pure nickel showed little change [3]. - Domestically, the monetary policy is expected to be loose, which may provide a second - round boost to the macro - environment. Nickel prices have fallen to the lower end of the range and are expected to be corrected technically. However, the fundamentals show no obvious driving force, and the inventory accumulation pressure has increased, indicating weak downstream consumption. It is expected that nickel prices may rise slightly driven by the macro - environment and technical factors [3][11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Macro - level**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25bp to 4.25% on Wednesday. The new dot - plot implies 2 more rate cuts this year and 1 in 2026. Powell stated that this rate cut was preventive, and the Fed was optimistic about the future economic outlook [5]. - **Nickel Ore**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remained stable. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association slightly raised the reference price for the second - phase laterite nickel ore in September. The market is concerned about the RKAB approval in October [6]. - **Pure Nickel**: In August, China's refined nickel production was 3.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.55%. The profit margins of some processes improved. In July, imports increased significantly, mainly from Russia and Norway, and exports also increased. As of September 18, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was - 1272.68 yuan/ton [7]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron rose slightly. In August, China's ferronickel production increased by 11.77% month - on - month, and Indonesia's production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. As of September 15, the inventory of ferronickel decreased. In July, imports increased year - on - year, with significant changes in imports from different countries [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: In August, the planned production of 300 - series stainless steel increased. As of September 15, the inventory increased slightly. In September, steel mills' production plans increased, and the de - stocking trend may continue [8]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained stable. In August, the production of nickel sulfate decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased. The downstream and upstream inventory days remained stable. The market is expected to maintain a pattern of high - demand but soft - price [9]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From September 1 - 14, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 59.8%. The inventory of the passenger vehicle market has decreased, and the production - sales ratio has increased. The subsidy policy may have limited impact on demand [9]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel increased by 429 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 2314 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 3360 tons, and the total inventory of the two major exchanges increased by 5674 tons [10]. 2. Industry News - Indonesia announced the reference price for the second - phase nickel ore in September, which increased by about 0.68% compared to the first - phase [13]. - Antam and CATL plan to invest $1.9 billion in building a comprehensive nickel smelter in Indonesia. The HPAL project aims to produce 55,000 tons of MHP per year, and the RKEF smelter aims to produce 88,000 tons of NPI per year [13]. 3. Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of domestic and foreign nickel, spot premium and discount trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium and discount, nickel domestic - foreign ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [15][17][19][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but Powell's speech was more hawkish than expected. The US retail data exceeded expectations, and the employment market improved, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and pressure on risk assets. In China, economic indicators in August generally declined, increasing the need for timely policy reinforcement [3][11]. - Fundamentally, the processing fees for domestic and imported zinc ores continued to diverge. The processing fee for domestic ores remained stable, while that for imported ores increased rapidly. In September, there were more regular maintenance activities in smelters, and the monthly output of refined zinc was expected to remain above 600,000 tons. On the demand side, the improvement in the prices of black - series products drove the sales of galvanized pipes. The operating rates of some end - user enterprises increased, but there were still differences in orders among different industries. Social inventories decreased slightly due to the decline in zinc prices and pre - holiday stocking demand [4][11]. - Overall, the Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, and the rebound of the US dollar pressured zinc prices. However, the increase in the operating rates of end - user enterprises, the enthusiasm for downstream price - fixing after the decline in zinc prices, and the pre - holiday stocking plans would limit the downward space of zinc prices [4][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | 9/12 Price | 9/19 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,305 | 22,045 | - 260 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2,956 | 2,898.5 | - 57.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 7.55 | 7.61 | 0.06 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 94,649 | 99,315 | 4,666 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 50,525 | 47,825 | - 2,700 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 154,200 | 158,500 | 4,300 | Tons | | Spot Premium | - 60 | - 50 | 10 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures changed to ZN2511 last week, with the price oscillating downward and breaking below 22,000 Yuan/ton. The Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, but the rebound of the US dollar led to a withdrawal of long - position funds and a significant decline in zinc prices. The weekly decline was 1.28%. LME zinc first rose and then fell, with a weekly decline of 1.95% [6]. - In the spot market, as the zinc price declined, downstream customers increased price - fixing, and traders also increased shipments. However, in the second half of the week, downstream purchasing weakened, and the spot premium remained at a small discount [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of September 19, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons. As of September 18, social inventory was 158,500 tons [8]. - In the macro aspect, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and expecting two more cuts within the year. The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the number of initial jobless claims decreased. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and adjusted the quantitative tightening scale. The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [8][9]. - In China, the industrial added value in August increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year. The fixed - asset investment from January to August increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the real - estate investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year [10]. Industry News - SMM data showed that the average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates in the week of September 19 remained unchanged at 3,850 Yuan/metal ton, while the average processing fee for imported zinc concentrates increased by 12.5 US dollars/dry ton to 111.25 US dollars/dry ton [13]. - On September 17, Orion Minerals' subsidiary signed an agreement with a subsidiary of Glencore, obtaining a financing of 200 million - 250 million US dollars and a concentrate purchase agreement for the Prieska project. The company plans to start production at the PCZM project by the end of 2026 or early 2027 and aims to increase copper production to over 30,000 tons/year and zinc production to 65,000 tons/year after the two projects reach stable production [13]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, the ratio of the two markets, inventory changes, processing fees for zinc ores, and the operating rates of downstream enterprises, which visually present the market situation [15][17][19][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices continued their strong performance, with international gold and silver prices reaching new highs. After the Fed's interest rate cut of 25 basis points, some investment funds took profits, causing precious metal prices to briefly pull back before rebounding strongly on Friday [2][5]. - Fed Chair Powell defined the rate cut as a "risk management" measure, mainly to address the weakening labor market, but he indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to initiate large - scale easing. The market's mixed interpretation of his remarks led to some capital outflows and a price correction [2][6]. - Although the Fed's rate cut was finalized, Powell's speech was seen as "releasing uncertainty signals", triggering some investors to take profits. However, recent geopolitical tensions in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Israel - Palestine situation have enhanced gold's safe - haven appeal. The significant increase in gold ETF holdings and central banks' continuous gold purchases support the gold price, while silver's price has reached new highs due to its industrial properties and catch - up effect. Precious metal prices are expected to continue an upward trend [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data - **Gold**: SHFE gold closed at 830.56 yuan/gram, down 3.66 yuan (-0.44%); Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 826.00 yuan/gram, down 2.03 yuan (-0.25%); COMEX gold closed at 3719.40 dollars/ounce, up 38.70 dollars (1.05%) [3]. - **Silver**: SHFE silver closed at 9971 yuan/kilogram, down 64 yuan (-0.64%); Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 9940 yuan/kilogram, down 54 yuan (-0.54%); COMEX silver closed at 43.37 dollars/ounce, up 0.69 dollars (1.60%) [3]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in 9 months. The FOMC statement recognized the weakening labor market and rising inflation. The dot - plot shows two more cuts this year and one next year. Powell said employment growth has slowed, and inflation is still slightly high [5]. - Powell's "risk management" statement and the mixed market interpretation led to some capital outflows and price corrections. Geopolitical tensions, increased gold ETF holdings, and central bank purchases support the upward trend of precious metal prices [2][6]. 3. Important Data Information - **US Economic Data**: The US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index dropped 21 points to - 8.7; August retail sales rose 0.6% month - on - month; new home starts in August decreased from 1.429 million to 1.307 million; building permits decreased from 1.362 million to 1.312 million; the MBA 30 - year mortgage rate dropped 10 basis points to 6.39%; initial jobless claims fell to 231,000 [8]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%; the Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale; the Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [9]. 4. Related Data Charts - **ETF Holdings**: As of September 19, 2025, the total gold ETF holdings were 994.56 tons, an increase of 19.76 tons from the previous week; the iShare silver holdings were 15,205.14 tons, an increase of 145.40 tons from the previous week [10]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: For gold futures on September 16, 2025, non - commercial net long positions were 266,410, an increase of 4,670 from the previous week; for silver futures, non - commercial net long positions were 51,538, a decrease of 2,399 from the previous week [11][12].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report - Date: September 22, 2025 - Main Theme: Interest rate cuts did not exceed expectations, and copper prices oscillated and adjusted [1] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View - Last week, copper prices declined from high levels. The main reason was that the Fed's interest rate cut in September did not exceed expectations. Market risk appetite declined, and the US dollar index rebounded, pressuring the metal market. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, the domestic consumption peak season arrived, and new scrap copper tax policies hindered domestic production release. The social inventory turned downward, and the near - month contract shifted to a Back structure. - The market has fully priced in the expectation of 2 - 3 interest rate cuts this year. Some overseas fund long positions took profits. Powell indicated no need to start a large - scale easing cycle, causing market risk appetite to decline and the US dollar to rebound, pressuring the metal sector. Domestically, the capital market sentiment was high. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, refined copper production was expected to decline, and the domestic tight - balance structure would intensify. Short - term copper prices were expected to oscillate and adjust [2][10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Contract Prices**: LME copper decreased from $10,064.50/ton to $9,996.50/ton, a decline of 0.68%; COMEX copper dropped from 464.8 cents/pound to 463.05 cents/pound, a decline of 0.38%; SHFE copper fell from 81,060 yuan/ton to 79,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.49%; international copper decreased from 72,030 yuan/ton to 70,810 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.69%. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.05 to 7.99 [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 19, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area rose to 646,720 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 6,300 tons (4.09%); COMEX inventory increased by 6,287 short - tons (2.02%); SHFE inventory increased by 11,760 tons (12.51%); Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 500 tons (0.65%) [6] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The Fed's interest rate cut in September did not exceed expectations, which alleviated market concerns about the Fed's independence, causing market risk appetite to decline and the US dollar to rebound, pressuring the metal market. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, the domestic consumption peak season arrived, new scrap copper tax policies hindered domestic production release, and the social inventory turned downward [2][7] - **Inventory Status**: As of September 19, the global inventory continued to rise slightly. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 9.75%; SHFE inventory increased but remained at a low level; Shanghai bonded area inventory was basically flat. The LME inventory shifted from accumulation to depletion, while the US copper inventory continued to increase. The Shanghai - London ratio dropped below 8 [7] - **Macro - situation**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25%. The latest dot - plot showed that there might be another 50 - basis - point cut this year and 25 - basis - point cuts in 2026 and 2027. Domestically, in August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and from January to August, the cumulative profit growth was 6.2% [7][8] - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, and refined copper production was expected to decline. The new scrap copper tax policy hindered domestic production release. On the demand side, power grid investment projects started, the copper cable industry's operating rate returned to about 80%, and the new energy vehicle industry was approaching the peak season. The domestic tight - balance structure intensified, and the near - month contract price continued to rise, shifting the structure back to Back [2][9][10] 3. Industry News - Anglo American and Codelco signed an agreement to jointly operate adjacent mines in central Chile, which is expected to release at least $5 billion in value and produce an additional 2.7 million tons of copper in 21 years [11] - Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has been suspended due to a mud - flow accident. The long - term suspension may lead to continuously high copper prices. The global copper smelting industry has been facing a serious shortage of concentrates this year [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area, copper basis, spread, and other data, with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][17][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market had fully priced in the Fed's rate cut, leading to a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" situation. There are also uncertainties such as stagflation, hard landing, and geopolitical issues, which may cause the market sentiment to turn cautious [3][8]. - Fundamentally, the theoretical output on the supply - side has increased slightly, but the actual supply of aluminum ingots is expected to be limited due to the high proportion of molten aluminum. Consumption continues to improve marginally, and demand is expected to pick up rapidly due to pre - holiday stocking [3][8]. - Considering the adjustment of macro - sentiment and the favorable supply - demand outlook, aluminum prices are expected to remain strongly volatile [3][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 2025/9/12 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 2701 | 2676 | - 25.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 21060 | 20790 | - 270.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | | | LME Spot Premium | 6.35 | 5.43 | - 0.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 485275 | 513900 | 28625.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 72469 | 71959 | - 510.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 20818 | 20872 | 54.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | - 40 | - 20 | 20.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Storage Spot Average Price | 20762 | 20828 | 66.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | 56 | 44 | - 12.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 62.5 | 63.8 | 1.3 | tons | | Theoretical Average Cost of Electrolytic Aluminum | 16383.85 | 16301.97 | - 81.9 | yuan/ton | | Weekly Average Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum | 4434.15 | 4570.03 | 135.9 | yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20872 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of the Southern Storage spot was 20828 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton from last week [5]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. US economic data shows a slowdown in some indicators [6]. - In China, in August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the service production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year [6]. - The downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 1.3 tons to 63.8 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.25 tons to 13.5 tons [3][7][8]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The market expects two more rate cuts this year, but Powell's speech increased uncertainty. China's economic data in August continued the pattern of overall slowdown with structural highlights [3][8]. - On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, mainly through capacity replacement. Due to the ramping - up of some previously replaced capacities, production has slightly increased recently. On the consumption side, the downstream aluminum processing operating rate continued to rise, but the increase was limited due to high aluminum prices. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased slightly [3][8]. - Considering the macro and fundamental factors, aluminum prices are expected to remain strongly volatile [3][8]. 3.4 Industry News - The preliminary estimate of the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is about 2.15 million units, a 6.5% month - on - month increase and a 2.0% year - on - year increase. The retail volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach about 1.25 million, with a penetration rate of 58.1% [9]. - The US Department of Commerce plans to include more products derived from steel and aluminum products in the tariff scope, and will consider requests for additional tariffs on more imported auto parts in the coming weeks [9]. 3.5 Related Charts The report provides 10 charts, including the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai - London Aluminum ratio, LME Aluminum premium/discount, etc., to show the market situation of aluminum [10][11][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil's main continuous contract fell 21 to close at 4,424 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.47%; palm oil's 01 contract rose 20 to close at 9,316 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22%; soybean oil's 01 contract rose 6 to close at 8,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07%; rapeseed oil's 01 contract rose 211 to close at 10,068 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14%; CBOT US soybean oil's main continuous contract fell 1.53 to close at 50.59 cents/pound, a decline of 2.94%; ICE rapeseed's active contract fell 18.6 to close at 618.7 Canadian dollars/ton, a decline of 2.92% [4]. - Palm oil fluctuated within the week, first rising then falling. India's strong imports in August and heavy rainfall in Malaysian production areas, which affected production and led to a weakening of Malaysian palm oil production on a month - on - month basis, limited the price decline. However, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy and the decline of US soybean oil dragged down the palm oil trend. Rapeseed oil was strong due to expected low supply in the context of China - Canada trade and continued inventory reduction in China [4][7]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week. The dollar index fluctuated at a low level, and oil prices weakened. In terms of fundamentals, heavy rainfall in Malaysian production areas affected production and logistics, and the output of Malaysian palm oil in the first half of September decreased on a month - on - month basis, limiting price declines. But the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy dragged down US soybean oil. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - CBOT soybean oil's main continuous contract fell from 52.12 cents/pound to 50.59 cents/pound, a decline of 2.94%; BMD Malaysian palm oil's main continuous contract fell from 4,445 ringgit/ton to 4,424 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.47%; palm oil's 01 contract rose from 9,296 yuan/ton to 9,316 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22%; soybean oil's 01 contract rose from 8,322 yuan/ton to 8,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07%; rapeseed oil's 01 contract rose from 9,857 yuan/ton to 10,068 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14%. Spot prices also showed different trends [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Palm oil fluctuated within the week, with India's strong imports and production problems in Malaysia limiting price declines, while the US biodiesel policy uncertainty and the decline of US soybean oil dragging it down. Rapeseed oil was strong due to supply concerns [7]. - From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil's yield, oil extraction rate, and output decreased on a month - on - month basis. Different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 showed mixed trends. India's palm oil imports in August reached a high level, and the total import of edible vegetable oil also increased [8][9]. - As of September 12, 2025, the inventory of three major oils in key regions in China increased slightly compared to last week and significantly compared to the same period last year. As of September 19, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil increased, while that of palm oil decreased [9][10]. 3.3 Industry News - Heavy rainfall in Sabah, Malaysia, caused floods and the cancellation of a state - level celebration. Edible oil prices, including palm oil, are expected to be firm in 2025, and the supply - demand gap will continue in 2026 [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in futures and spot markets, as well as the production, inventory, and export data of Malaysia and Indonesia's palm oil, and the commercial inventory of three major oils in China [12][13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both domestic and overseas alumina supplies are abundant, especially the overseas prices have accelerated their decline in the past week. The theoretical import window has slightly opened. If it persists, increased imports in the next two months may exacerbate the domestic oversupply situation. The consumption side remains relatively rigid, and the rising warehouse receipt inventory continues to exert pressure. Alumina is expected to remain weak [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/9/12 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2914 | 2953 | 39 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3099 | 3061 | -38 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 224 | 133 | -91 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 333 | 323 | -10 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 123.59 | 175.36 | 51.8 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 138692 | 150393 | 11701 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite in Shanxi (6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Henan (6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guangxi (6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guizhou (6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 75 | 74 | -1 | US dollars/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract rose 1.34% last week, closing at 2953 Yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was reported at 3099 Yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of -67 Yuan/ton compared to the previous week [4]. - In the bauxite market, the domestic ore market was stable. The supply shortage in the north was slightly aggravated by rainy weather, while the supply in the south was relatively stable. The import market continued to monitor the impact of Guinea's referendum results on ore policies, and the market trading was stable for the time being [4]. - On the supply side, alumina supply increased slightly. A roasting furnace of an alumina enterprise in Guangxi that was under maintenance has resumed normal production this week, resulting in a slight increase in alumina supply compared to the previous period. As of September 18, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36% [4]. - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Shandong continued to transfer their production capacity to Yunnan. Overall, the total operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable compared to the previous week, and there was no significant change in alumina demand [4]. - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 85,000 tons last Friday to 150,000 tons, while the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Last week, the bauxite price was stable, and the trading atmosphere was calm. The alumina price gradually declined, and there was a strong wait - and - see sentiment in ore procurement. On the supply side, some previously maintained production capacities in Henan and Guizhou resumed production last week, so the operating capacity of alumina slightly increased to 83.36%. Overseas alumina supply is abundant, and the FPB price of imported alumina has been declining continuously during the week. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises mainly rely on long - term contracts for rigid demand tender procurement, with stable demand and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to increase by 8.5 tons during the week to 150,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][5][6]. 3.4 Industry News Recently, Aluminium Bahrain and Hydro officially renewed their alumina supply agreement. This renewal not only further consolidates their long - standing strategic partnership but also provides a stable supply guarantee of high - quality alumina for Aluminium Bahrain's production and operation. In the context of global aluminum industry supply chain fluctuations, this cooperation has attracted much attention [7] 3.5 Related Charts The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina cost - profit, bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, and alumina exchange inventory [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract dropped 19.25 to close at 1026 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.84%; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 65 to close at 3014 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.11%; the South China soybean meal spot price dropped 30 to close at 2950 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.0%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract declined 9 to close at 2522 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.36%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price dropped 20 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.77% [4][7]. - The decline of US soybeans was mainly due to demand concerns, and the drop of soybean meal was mainly because of sufficient spot supply and weak basis operation. The market expected a possible Sino - US agricultural product procurement agreement, leading to the downward oscillation of Dalian soybean meal. Rapeseed meal was relatively resistant to decline as it continued the de - stocking rhythm and future supply was gradually tightening [4][7]. - Precipitation in Brazilian production areas is conducive to sowing. The pressure of US soybean harvest is emerging, the export sales progress is slow, and demand concerns lead to the decline of the external market. The high operating rate of oil mills, high soybean meal inventory, and sufficient spot supply. Although the feed enterprises have inventory replenishment needs before the double festivals, it is expected to be limited. The procurement of old - crop Brazilian soybeans has slowed down, the premium has declined, and the support of import cost has weakened. The Sino - US agricultural product procurement agreement has not been confirmed, and the follow - up Sino - US economic and trade progress should be monitored. Recently, Dalian soybean meal has stopped falling and is expected to oscillate in a short - term range [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract price dropped from 1045.25 to 1026 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.84%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans decreased from 490 to 484 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.22%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans dropped from 466 to 459 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.50%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk decreased by 3.08 yuan per ton; the soybean meal 01 contract price fell from 3079 to 3014 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.11%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract price declined from 2531 to 2522 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.36%; the East China soybean meal spot price dropped from 3000 to 2940 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.00%; the South China soybean meal spot price decreased from 2980 to 2950 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.01%; the South China spot - futures price difference increased by 35 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of September 14, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 63%, the harvest rate was 5%, the defoliation rate was 41%, and about 36% of the planting areas were affected by drought [8]. - As of the week of September 11, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 92.3 tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 1028 tons. China has not purchased new - crop US soybeans. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 3.14 dollars per bushel. The NOPA monthly report showed that the US soybean oil inventory in August 2025 was 1.245 billion pounds, and the soybean crushing volume was 189.81 million bushels [9]. - As of last Thursday, the sowing of Brazilian 2025/2026 soybeans was 0.12% of the total estimated area. The soybean export volume in September is expected to rise to 753 tons. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 733.2 tons, the soybean meal inventory was 116.44 tons, the unexecuted contract was 588.7 tons, and the national port soybean inventory was 968.6 tons [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the daily average trading volume of national soybean meal was 132,540 tons, the daily average pick - up volume was 198,284 tons, the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.4275 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 9.42 days [11]. Industry News - As of last Thursday, the sowing of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans was 0.12% of the total estimated area, slightly higher than 0.06% of the same period last year. The expected output of the new season is 180 million tons. In the Toledo area of Brazil, about 4,900 hectares of soybeans have been planted, accounting for 1% of the planned area [12]. - As of the week of September 7, 2025, the Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 1.5% to 47,200 tons. From August 1 to September 7, 2025, the export volume was 529,500 tons, a decrease of 53.4% compared with the same period last year. The commercial inventory was 516,200 tons [13]. - The estimated output of Brazilian 2024/25 soybeans remained at 170.3 million tons, the estimated export volume in 2025 remained at 109.5 million tons, and the estimated crushing volume in 2025 was raised to 58.5 million tons [13]. - Ukrainian rapeseed exports have been blocked for two consecutive weeks due to disputes over customs documents after a 10% export tariff was imposed [13]. - The estimated output of Australian 2025/26 rapeseed is 6.1 million tons, an increase of 3.4%. The estimated output of EU and UK rapeseed in 2025 is 21.6 million tons, higher than the previous estimate [14]. - The estimated output of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is expected to increase by 4.1% to 2 million tons, with a 6.2% increase in yield per unit area and a 2.0% decrease in harvest area [14]. - The CONAB agency estimated that the Brazilian 2025/2026 soybean output will increase by 3.6% to 177.67 million tons, and the planting area will be 49.08 million hectares [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, soybean meal main contract trend, etc., to visually present relevant data [16][17][20][22].