Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current stance of China's monetary policy is supportive, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The trading margin and daily price limit for rebar and hot-rolled coil have been adjusted by the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The spot market shows weak trading, confirming the weak reality. The industry data last week was favorable, with both production and apparent demand increasing and inventory decreasing for the five major steel products. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar rebounded, production remained flat, and inventory significantly decreased, while the data for hot-rolled coil changed little. As the pre-holiday inventory replenishment by steel mills nears completion, the positive factors for raw materials have been realized and prices have declined. It is expected that the futures prices will fluctuate under pressure. Attention should be paid to holiday risks. [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar closed at 3114 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or 1.83%, with a total trading volume of 7,678,373 lots and an open interest of 2,832,803 lots. - SHFE hot-rolled coil closed at 3313 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan or 1.81%, with a total trading volume of 2,616,236 lots and an open interest of 1,369,716 lots. - DCE iron ore closed at 790.0 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan or 2.17%, with a total trading volume of 1,419,700 lots and an open interest of 529,740 lots. - DCE coking coal closed at 1196.5 yuan/ton, down 35.5 yuan or 2.88%, with a total trading volume of 6,549,970 lots and an open interest of 907,095 lots. - DCE coke closed at 1692.5 yuan/ton, down 46.0 yuan or 2.65%, with a total trading volume of 141,015 lots and an open interest of 53,441 lots. [2] Market Review - The steel futures market adjusted downward after fluctuating last week. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2970 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the Shanghai rebar price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; and the Shanghai hot-rolled coil price was 3360 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. [4] Industry News - Five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target for the added value of the steel industry at around 4% in the next two years. The plan proposes measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output, classification management of steel enterprises, and stable supply of raw materials. [6][7] Relevant Charts - The content provides multiple charts related to the futures and basis spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coil, production, inventory, and apparent demand, as well as the regional price differences and profits of steel products. [9][10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, copper prices broke upward. The main reasons were that the performance of the US core inflation in August met expectations, boosting the expectation of an interest - rate cut this year. The dismissal storm of Cook was postponed, which lifted the US dollar index to rebound from a low level. China's industrial enterprise profits in August showed a significant year - on - year rebound, and the anti - involution policy effectively boosted market confidence. From the fundamental perspective, both Indonesia's Grasberg and Peru's Antamina significantly lowered their recent production expectations, the supply of concentrates became tighter, the expected domestic refined copper production declined, social inventories were running at a low level, and the near - month futures market returned to a flat price structure. Overall, the continuous rise in copper mine interference rate and the start of interest - rate cuts by global central banks paved the way for the upward movement of copper prices from both macro and fundamental aspects. The rebound of the US dollar index had limited suppression on copper prices. The central bank restarted reverse repurchase to provide a loose liquidity environment. The anti - involution policy in key domestic industries had shown good effects. The domestic tight - balance structure intensified, social inventories were running at a low level, and there was an expectation of a slight reduction in refined copper production this month. It is expected that copper prices will enter a volatile upward trend in the short term [2][3][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Price Changes: From September 19th to September 26th, LME copper rose from $9996.50/ton to $10205.00/ton, a increase of 2.09%; COMEX copper rose from 463.05 cents/pound to 476.45 cents/pound, a increase of 2.89%; SHFE copper rose from 79850 yuan/ton to 82470 yuan/ton, a increase of 3.28%; international copper rose from 70810 yuan/ton to 72870 yuan/ton, a increase of 2.91%. The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 7.99 to 8.08. The LME spot premium/discount rose from -$64.90/ton to -$33.91/ton, a decrease of 47.75%, and the Shanghai spot premium/discount fell from 70 yuan/ton to -5 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Changes: As of September 26th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai Bonded Area decreased to 641,745 tons, a decrease of 0.77% compared with September 19th. Among them, LME inventory decreased by 3250 tons (-2.20%), COMEX inventory increased by 5510 short tons (1.74%), SHFE inventory decreased by 7008 tons (-6.63%), and Shanghai Bonded Area inventory decreased by 200 tons (-0.26%) [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro - aspect: In the US, the core PCE in August was +2.7% year - on - year and +0.3% month - on - month, both meeting expectations. Consumer spending on non - essential goods was strong. There was a dispute over the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, and some officials had different views on interest - rate cuts. The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU imported automobiles. In China, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth from January to August was 0.9%. The equipment manufacturing industry played a significant role [9]. - Supply - demand aspect: Indonesian Grasberg and other mines had production problems, and the supply of concentrates was tight. The implementation of Document No. 770 was expected to intensify the shortage of domestic resources. The production of refined copper in September was expected to decrease by more than 50,000 tons. In terms of demand, the construction of power grid investment projects was limited, the start - up rate of the copper cable industry was lower than the same period in previous years. New energy vehicle orders were abundant, but the copper consumption in the photovoltaic industry declined. The overall consumption remained stable, and the domestic social inventory was at a low level, with the tight - balance structure intensifying [10]. 3.3 Industry News - Freeport's Indonesian Grasberg copper mine suspended operations due to an accident, resulting in a significant decline in the production of copper and gold. The production was expected to return to normal in 2027. The company declared force majeure, and the insurance compensation was expected to have a deductible of $500 million and an upper limit of $700 million [11]. - Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals' factory in Peru temporarily closed due to protests, and the company was working to resume normal operations, stating that it would not affect its production and cost guidance in 2025 [12]. - Argentina approved Canadian mining company McEwen Copper's $2.7 billion investment in the Los Azules copper project, which was expected to contribute $1.1 billion to exports annually. The project was planned to start producing cathode copper in 2029 [13]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, premium/discount trends, and other aspects of copper, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, LME copper premium/discount, etc., with the data source being iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][20][24].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Title: Corporate Profit Recovery, Industrial Silicon Rangeside Fluctuation 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - Last week, industrial silicon fluctuated within a range. The main reasons were the overall cooling of the domestic industrial product market sentiment, the high - level decline of polysilicon futures with obvious support below, the significant year - on - year increase in the profit growth rate of Chinese industrial enterprises, and the entry of the anti - involution policy effect into the implementation period. The supply side was generally stable, and the demand side had mixed performance. The industrial silicon spot market operated steadily due to the range - bound fluctuation of the futures [2][5][9]. - Overall, China's anti - involution policy effect is in the implementation period, the corporate profits at the silicon material end are continuously recovering, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits has increased significantly, the industrial product market sentiment has cooled but the price center has stabilized. Technically, the 8800 level on the futures chart still has strong support. Although the polysilicon futures' high - level decline slightly dampens short - term sentiment, the futures price is expected to maintain a relatively strong range - bound fluctuation in the short term [2][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Contract | September 26 | September 19 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 8960.00 | 9305.00 | - 345.00 | - 3.71% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 9500.00 | 9350.00 | 150.00 | 1.60% | Yuan/ton | | Non - Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 9300.00 | 9100.00 | 200.00 | 2.20% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9700.00 | 9600.00 | 100.00 | 1.04% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10550.00 | 10450.00 | 100.00 | 0.96% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 11050.00 | 10800.00 | 250.00 | 2.31% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 51.00 | 51.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 54.3 | 54.3 | 0 | 0.00% | Ten thousand tons | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro Aspect**: In August, the total profit of China's above - scale industrial enterprises increased by 20.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth from January to August was 0.9%. The equipment manufacturing industry played an obvious "ballast stone" role [6]. - **Supply Aspect**: The operating rate in Xinjiang remained at 69%. The output in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season continued to decline, and the new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was limited. The overall supply was stable. As of September 26, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 95,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94% and a year - on - year increase of 0.21%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas of industrial silicon was 310, and the overall furnace - opening rate was maintained at 38.9% [5][6][9]. - **Demand Aspect**: The quotation center of polysilicon moved up again, but silicon enterprises faced large inventory pressure, and the production cut in October might still be less than expected. The space for silicon wafers to support prices in the future was limited, and the market sentiment weakened. The supply and demand of photovoltaic cells remained in a tight balance, and the demand for high - efficiency cells was good. Leading enterprises at the component end showed signs of reluctant to sell, the centralized price increased slightly, but the terminal tender volume decreased, and some projects continued to postpone construction. The recycling of old photovoltaic components will become an important issue in the industry. The winning bid price range of components disclosed last week was 0.69 - 0.75 yuan/watt [2][5][7]. - **Inventory Aspect**: As of September 26, the national social inventory of industrial silicon remained at 543,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The exchange - registered warehouse receipt volume continued to increase. After the exchange introduced the new standard for delivery products, most of the 4 - series warehouse receipts could not be re - registered due to excessive titanium content, and the 5 - series warehouse receipts that met the new standard were actively registered and stored, becoming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory [8] 3.3 Industry News - As of the end of August, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.12 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 48.5%; the installed capacity of wind power was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. From January to August, the cumulative average utilization hours of the country's power generation equipment were 2105 hours, 223 hours less than the same period last year [10]. - South Africa added about 928MW of photovoltaic installed capacity in the first quarter of 2025. It is expected that the new installed capacity this year will exceed 1.1GW in 2024. As of mid - 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity in South Africa was estimated to be 9457MW. In July this year, the South African government approved six new photovoltaic projects in the seventh - round procurement, with a total installed capacity of 1290MW. The South African market is gradually adopting the scheme of matching energy storage with renewable energy, and the commercial and industrial market has good prospects, while the residential photovoltaic market shows signs of slowing down [11]. - On September 5, the Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the second batch of projects in the 2025 annual development and construction plan for wind power and photovoltaic power generation in Hebei Province. This batch included 76 projects with a total capacity of 7.27107 million kilowatts, including 42 photovoltaic projects with a total scale of 3.12907 million kilowatts and 34 wind power projects with a total scale of 4.142 million kilowatts [11] 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes charts on industrial silicon production, exports, social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, weekly production in main production areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and organic silicon [13][14][15][17][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market improved marginally, and the market's gaming enthusiasm cooled down, resulting in no significant fluctuations in lithium prices. The supply of lithium carbonate reached a new high, but the inventory scale decreased. The demand for energy storage remained strong, and the high - frequency sales growth rate of the power terminal rebounded. However, the market was concerned about the direction of lithium mines on September 30th, and the trading volume of the main contract decreased, indicating that both long and short positions were withdrawing their bets on the direction of lithium mines on September 30th [4]. - In the later stage, the direction of lithium mines may be the only disturbing factor, and the price will fluctuate. This week, there are only two trading days for lithium carbonate, and without the influence of external markets, the market may wait for the final ruling of lithium mines in Jiangxi. The marginal variables of the fundamentals have limited influence, and the downstream pre - holiday stockpiling is mostly over. The trading in the spot market may gradually stagnate, and the core of the market gaming is still on the resource ruling. Therefore, the trend direction of lithium prices is not clear, and the market gaming has cooled down. The short - term view is that the price will remain volatile [4][15]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), and domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) remained unchanged from September 19th to September 26th, 2025. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.46% to 7.29 million yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropped to 0, a decrease of 100%. The price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 1.46% to 7.27 million yuan/ton. The prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse and fine particles) increased slightly. The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.10% to 130,581 tons. The price of cobalt acid lithium increased by 6.85%, and the prices of ternary materials also increased slightly [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulatory and Delivery**: As of September 26, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 40,329 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 74,700 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2511 was 248,600 lots [8]. - **Supply Side**: As of September 26, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 21,469 tons, an increase of 344 tons from the previous period. New production capacities were put into operation, such as the lithium extraction project from Zabuye Salt Lake of Tibet Mining with a designed annual capacity of about 12,000 tons, and Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium salt project in Zhangjiagang [8]. - **Lithium Salt Import**: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,847 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58% and a year - on - year increase of 25%. The import from Chile was about 15,608 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82%, accounting for about 71%. The import from Argentina was 4,253 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8%, accounting for about 19%. The average import price decreased by about 14% [9]. - **Lithium Ore Import**: In August, the total import of lithium ore was about 619,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.51%. The import from Australia decreased by 50.5% to 212,000 tons, the import from Zimbabwe increased by 84% to 118,000 tons, and the import from Nigeria decreased by 9.6% to 105,000 tons. The imports from Mali and Brazil increased significantly [10][11]. - **Demand**: - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: As of September 26, the output of lithium iron phosphate was about 78,166 tons, with an operating rate of 68.79%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory decreased by 96 tons. The output of ternary materials was about 18,070 tons, with an operating rate of 47.28%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory increased by 60 tons. The prices of both lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased slightly, but the market trading became colder, and the downstream pre - holiday stockpiling was mostly over [12]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From September 1st to 21st, the retail sales of the domestic new - energy passenger vehicle market were 697,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 58.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 8.267 million units, a year - on - year increase of 24%. Overseas, Trump announced a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars and auto parts. In China, the high - frequency sales growth rate continued to pick up, but there were still concerns about the terminal consumption market [13]. - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 130,581 tons, an increase of about 135 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased by about 375 tons, the market inventory decreased by about 1,085 tons, and the exchange inventory increased by 845 lots [14]. This Week's Outlook - The direction of lithium mines may be the only disturbing factor, and the price will fluctuate. With only two trading days this week and no influence from external markets, the market may wait for the final ruling of lithium mines in Jiangxi. The marginal variables of the fundamentals have limited influence, and the downstream pre - holiday stockpiling is mostly over. The trading in the spot market may gradually stagnate, and the core of the market gaming is still on the resource ruling. Therefore, the trend direction of lithium prices is not clear, and the short - term view is that the price will remain volatile [15]. Industry News - Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project was officially completed and put into operation on September 25th in Zhangjiagang [16]. - Tibet Mining's battery - grade lithium carbonate project in Zabuye Salt Lake was officially put into production. It is the world's first large - scale salt - lake lithium extraction industrial device using a combination of membrane separation and MVR evaporation crystallization technology [16]. - The first - phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Xihai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation on September 20th, with an annual production capacity of 300,000 tons of lithium concentrate processing and 30,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate [16]. Relevant Charts - The document provides multiple charts showing the price trends, production, and import volume of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and the production of new - energy vehicle batteries from 2022 to 2025 [18][20][22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the iron ore futures fluctuated and declined as the pre - holiday restocking benefits were realized. With the National Day holiday approaching and the end of steel mills' restocking, iron ore is expected to fluctuate and adjust [1][4][6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% in the next two years [10] - If the South Korean K - steel bill is implemented, medium - thick plates and hot - rolled coils will be most affected. With a 30% average tariff rate, China's medium - thick plates will lose their price advantage in South Korea, and the annual export volume may be reduced to less than 800,000 tons [10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3114 | - 58 | - 1.83 | 7678373 | 2832803 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3313 | - 61 | - 1.81 | 2616236 | 1369716 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 790.0 | - 17.5 | - 2.17 | 1419700 | 529740 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1196.5 | - 35.5 | - 2.88 | 6549970 | 907095 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1692.5 | - 46.0 | - 2.65 | 141015 | 53441 | Yuan/ton | [2] 2. Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, the steel mills' molten iron output continued to increase, with the daily average molten iron rising above 2.42 million tons. The pre - holiday restocking was active, and the steel mills' inventory reached a high level in the same period. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.22 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 175,000 tons [1][4] - **Supply Side**: Last week, the overseas shipment volume decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume increased. Both were at high levels in the same period in the past three years, and the shipment is expected to increase this week. The total global iron ore shipment was 3.3248 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 248,300 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 145.5068 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.69 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 351,410 tons, an increase of 380 tons [1][5] 3. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% in the next two years, and proposing measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output, classification management of steel enterprises, and stable supply of raw fuels [10] - On September 22, at a press conference, the central bank governor said that the central bank adheres to a domestic - oriented monetary policy, takes into account both domestic and international factors, and the current monetary policy stance is supportive and moderately loose [10] - If the South Korean K - steel bill is implemented, medium - thick plates and hot - rolled coils will be most affected. With a 30% average tariff rate, China's medium - thick plates will lose their price advantage in South Korea, and the annual export volume may be reduced to less than 800,000 tons [10] - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, ports in China and Mongolia will be closed for 7 days. Ganjimiao, Mandula, and Ceke ports will close on October 1 and resume customs clearance on October 8 [10] 4. Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis, steel mills' profit per ton, black metal smelting and rolling processing industry's profit and loss, iron ore shipment, arrival volume, port inventory, and steel mills' inventory and consumption [9][11][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices continued their strong performance, with international gold and silver prices hitting new highs. The US inflation data released on Friday met market expectations, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cuts later this year, leading to a sharp rise in precious metal prices on Friday [2][5]. - The US core PCE price index in August rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, not hindering the Fed's rate - cut rhythm. The FedWatch tool shows an 88% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% probability in December. There is increasing divergence among Fed officials on monetary policy [2][5]. - Overall, against the backdrop of inflation meeting expectations, the Fed maintaining a loose stance, and the imposition of new tariffs, gold is expected to remain strong. Silver is in a catch - up rally and may challenge historical highs. However, with the upcoming domestic holiday, there is a need to be wary of sharp fluctuations in overseas prices during the holiday [2][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE gold closed at 856.06 yuan/gram, up 25.50 yuan (3.07%), with a total trading volume of 264,305 lots and a total open interest of 178,255 lots [3]. - Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 852.90 yuan/gram, up 12.97 yuan (1.54%), with a total trading volume of 50,644 lots and a total open interest of 211,162 lots [3]. - COMEX gold closed at $3,789.80 per ounce, up $70.40 (1.89%) [3]. - SHFE silver closed at 10,632 yuan/kg, up 661 yuan (6.63%), with a total trading volume of 522,479 lots and a total open interest of 634,627 lots [3]. - Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 10,551 yuan/kg, up 308 yuan (3.01%), with a total trading volume of 698,132 lots and a total open interest of 3,354,936 lots [3]. - COMEX silver closed at $46.37 per ounce, up $3.00 (6.92%) [3]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The US core PCE price index in August rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, not hindering the Fed's rate - cut rhythm. The probability of a rate cut in October is 88%, and 65% in December [5]. - There is increasing divergence among Fed officials on monetary policy. New Fed理事Milan advocates rapid rate cuts, while理事鲍曼 and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also support rate cuts under certain conditions [6]. - Trump announced new tariffs on imported drugs, heavy trucks, and furniture starting from October 1st, further boosting risk - aversion sentiment [6]. - Gold is expected to remain strong, and silver is in a catch - up rally and may challenge historical highs. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm and ADP employment data, China and US September PMI, and eurozone HICP data this week, as well as Fed officials' speeches and other events [6][7]. 3. Important Data Information - The Fed's preferred core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous value [9]. - US consumer spending in August increased 0.4% after inflation adjustment, exceeding the expected 0.2% [9]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52, in line with expectations, while the service and composite PMIs were lower than expected and at three - month lows [9]. - The preliminary value of the eurozone September Manufacturing PMI was 49.5, below the boom - bust line, while the service PMI rose above expectations [9]. - The final value of the US September University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was 55.1, at a four - month low, and inflation expectations were slightly lower [9]. - The US Q2 GDP final value annualized quarterly growth rate was 3.8%, up from 3.3%, the fastest in nearly two years, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 2.6% [10]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, the lowest since mid - July, while the number of continued claims decreased slightly to 1.926 million [10]. - US new home sales in August were 800,000 units, far exceeding expectations, with a 20.5% month - on - month increase, and the inventory of new homes for sale was at the lowest level this year [10]. - The US and the EU finalized a tariff agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts from August 1st, and exempting some products from September 1st [10]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - The total gold holdings of ETFs as of September 26, 2025, were 1,005.72 tons, an increase of 11.16 tons from last week, 43.22 tons from last month, and 133.78 tons from last year. The silver holdings of iShares were 15,361.84 tons, an increase of 156.70 tons from last week, 87.14 tons from last month, and 725.58 tons from last year [12]. - As of September 23, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in gold futures were 266,749 contracts, an increase of 339 contracts from last week, and in silver futures were 52,276 contracts, an increase of 738 contracts from last week [13]. - The report also includes various charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, and correlations of precious metals, as well as the relationships between gold prices and other economic indicators such as the US dollar, copper, inflation expectations, and bond yields [15][16][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US second - quarter GDP was revised upwards, with inflation pressure remaining stubborn. The domestic anti - involution in various industries continued to advance. The A - share market was expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and the bond market remained weak [2][3]. - Precious metals: Silver prices reached a new 14 - year high, and gold prices were oscillating at a high level. The uncertainty of the Fed's future monetary policy increased, and attention was paid to the PCE data [4]. - Copper: With the approaching of concentrate supply and the decline in domestic refined copper production expectations, copper prices were expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum: The reduction of the US economic growth rate and initial jobless claims limited the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The pre - holiday stocking boosted consumption, and aluminum prices were expected to remain stable and oscillate [8][9]. - Alumina: The pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants increased, and the futures price was temporarily supported, but it was still expected to operate bearishly [10]. - Zinc: The weekly inventory reduction was obvious, and zinc prices had support at the bottom, but they lacked upward drive and were expected to continue low - level consolidation [11]. - Lead: The social inventory decreased significantly, which supported lead prices, but there was a risk of adjustment after high - level oscillation due to the recovery of supply and the decline of demand [12][13]. - Tin: Supported by the optimistic sentiment brought by the rise in copper prices and the low LME inventory, tin prices were oscillating at a high level [14]. - Lithium carbonate: The upstream production was active, and the downstream was in the seasonal peak season, but the spot performance was average, and lithium prices were oscillating [15]. - Nickel: The strong US economic data in the second quarter boosted nickel prices. Attention was paid to the intensity of typhoon disturbances, and nickel prices were oscillating [16][17]. - Soda ash and glass: The anti - involution policy was initially implemented in the glass industry, and the supply - demand of soda ash improved. Prices might still have the possibility of rising under policy drive [19][20]. - Steel: The steel inventory turned to reduction, and the futures price was expected to oscillate [21]. - Iron ore: The supply was stable, and the demand was supported by the pre - holiday replenishment. However, attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustment of futures prices [22][23]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The report provided the closing data of major futures markets for various metal contracts, including closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units [24]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, the SHFE copper price increased, the LME copper price decreased slightly, and the inventory and other data changed [25]. - For nickel, the SHFE nickel price rose, the LME nickel price fell, and the inventory data was provided [25]. - For zinc, the SHFE zinc price increased, the LME zinc price was flat, and inventory and other data changed [28]. - For lead, the SHFE lead price rose slightly, the LME lead price increased, and inventory and other data changed [28]. - For aluminum, the SHFE aluminum price increased, the LME aluminum price rose, and inventory and other data changed [28]. - For alumina, the SHFE alumina price increased, and the national average spot price decreased slightly [28]. - For tin, the SHFE tin price increased, the LME tin price rose, and inventory and other data changed [28]. - For precious metals, the prices of gold and silver in different markets were provided, and the gold - silver ratio and inventory data were also given [28]. - For rebar, the futures price increased slightly, and data such as spot prices, basis, and price differences were provided [30]. - For iron ore, the futures price increased slightly, and data such as spot prices, basis, and freight rates were provided [30]. - For coke, the futures price increased, and data such as spot prices and price differences were provided [30]. - For coking coal, the futures price increased, and data such as spot prices and basis were provided [30]. - For lithium carbonate, the futures price increased, and data such as spot prices and price differences were provided [30]. - For industrial silicon, the futures price increased, and data such as spot prices were provided [30]. - For soybeans and meal, the prices of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal changed, and data such as import prices and spot prices were provided [30][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Powell mentioned that there are risks of rising inflation and falling employment, and the Fed needs to balance. The US September PMI was in line with expectations, with stocks adjusting, the dollar index fluctuating weakly, gold hitting a new high, and oil prices rising due to supply disruptions. Domestically, the stock, bond, and commodity markets all adjusted on Tuesday. The stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the bond market is in a wait - and - see state with limited allocation space. [2][3] - Precious metals continued to rise, driven by factors such as the Fed's expected interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, a weak dollar, and the repair of the gold - silver ratio. They may show a volatile trend in the short term. [4] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable and volatile in the short term, with limited downward adjustment space, considering the Fed's policy stance and fundamental factors. [6][7] - Aluminum is expected to have a slow adjustment in the short term, with limited downside space, as market sentiment is cautious and fundamentals show improving consumption. [8][10] - Alumina continues to be weak, dominated by supply - side pressure. [11] - Zinc prices are expected to continue to trade in a narrow range at a low level, with limited downward adjustment space, as the market stabilizes and short - term consumption is disrupted by weather. [12] - Lead prices may decline as supply is expected to increase, although short - term support from pre - holiday stocking exists. [13][14] - Tin prices will maintain a high - level volatile trend, with their movement following market sentiment, as the raw material supply and demand contradiction is not significantly improved. [15] - Industrial silicon is expected to have a weak and volatile trend, considering supply growth and demand - side factors. [16][17] - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating as the market is avoiding policy risks, although there are signs of marginal improvement in fundamentals. [18][19] - Nickel prices are fluctuating with limited driving factors, and the short - term trend may be adjusted under technical guidance. [20][21] - Oil prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a clear long - term downward trend due to supply surplus, but geopolitical factors are causing short - term disruptions. [22][23] - For soda ash and glass, the fundamentals are stable, and there are opportunities in the price spread. [24] - Steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust as spot trading is poor. [25] - Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with supply and demand factors affecting the market. [26] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Powell stated that inflation and employment risks coexist, and the Fed's decision - making is not driven by political factors. The US September S&P manufacturing and services PMI were in line with expectations, both in the expansion range. Stocks adjusted, the dollar index was weak, gold reached a new high, and oil prices rose. [2] - Domestic: The stock, bond, and commodity markets adjusted on Tuesday. The stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the bond market is in a wait - and - see state. The 10Y and 30Y interest rates rose to 1.79% and 2.09% respectively. [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose 0.58% to $3796.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.12% to $44.265 per ounce. Driven by multiple factors, precious metals are expected to maintain a strong performance in the long term but may show a volatile trend in the short term. [4][5] 3.3 Copper - Shanghai copper's main contract had a narrow - range oscillation, and LME copper hovered around the $10,000 mark. Considering the Fed's policy and fundamentals, copper prices are expected to remain stable and volatile in the short term, with limited downward adjustment space. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20,685 yuan per ton, down 0.41%. Due to market caution and improving fundamentals, it is expected to have a slow adjustment in the short term, with limited downside space. [8][10] 3.5 Alumina - The futures main contract closed at 2877 yuan per ton, down 1.94%. With supply pressure, it continues to be weak. [11] 3.6 Zinc - Shanghai zinc's main contract had an intraday decline and a night - session sideways movement. Affected by weather and market sentiment, it is expected to continue to trade in a narrow range at a low level, with limited downward adjustment space. [12] 3.7 Lead - Shanghai lead's main contract declined. With the expected increase in supply, lead prices may decline after the pre - holiday stocking phase. [13][14] 3.8 Tin - Shanghai tin's main contract had a high - level volatile trend. Although consumption improvement is limited, the raw material supply and demand contradiction supports tin prices, and its movement follows market sentiment. [15] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon declined. With supply growth and demand - side factors, it is expected to have a weak and volatile trend. [16][17] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated. Although there are signs of marginal improvement in fundamentals, the market is avoiding the risk of the September 30 lithium mine ruling. [18][19] 3.11 Nickel - Nickel prices fluctuated. With limited driving factors and unclear disturbances from Indonesian mine suspensions, the short - term trend may be adjusted under technical guidance. [20][21] 3.12 Crude Oil - Oil prices had a night - session gap - up opening. In the short term, they are expected to be volatile due to geopolitical factors, while in the long term, a downward trend is clear due to supply surplus. [22][23] 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash main contract oscillated, and the glass main contract was slightly stronger. The fundamentals are stable, and there are opportunities in the price spread. [24] 3.14 Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillated and declined slightly. With poor spot trading, prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. [25] 3.15 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted. With supply and demand changes, it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. [26] 3.16 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - The report provides trading data for various metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and positions on September 23. [27] 3.17 Industrial Data Perspective - It presents detailed industrial data for metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc., including inventory, spot quotes, and price differentials on September 23 and September 22. [29][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - level shows that real estate investment continues to decline, infrastructure investment slows down, and terminal demand is weak. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market expects policy intensification. - On the fundamental side, last week's industrial data was favorable. The output of the five major steel products decreased slightly, the apparent demand rebounded, and the inventory increased but the growth rate narrowed significantly. The inventory of rebar turned to decline. The apparent demand for rebar increased, but the terminal was weak, with limited rebound space. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased month - on - month but still showed resilience. - It is expected that the futures price will show a volatile trend. [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3172 | 36 | 1.15 | 8980373 | 3148179 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3374 | 4 | 0.12 | 2777138 | 1412324 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 807.5 | 11.5 | 1.44 | 1698860 | 533529 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1232.0 | 44.5 | 3.75 | 8119133 | 943381 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1738.5 | 50.0 | 2.96 | 160217 | 52987 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and rebounded. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 3010 (+20) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (-20) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 (+20) yuan/ton. - From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 643109 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new housing construction area was 39801 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 18.8%. The investment in water transportation increased by 15.9%, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 7.4%, and the investment in railway transportation increased by 4.5%. - In terms of the industry, last week, the rebar output was 2060000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons month - on - month, the apparent demand was 2100000 tons, an increase of 120000 tons, the factory inventory was 1650000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons, the social inventory was 4850000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons, and the total inventory was 6500000 tons, a decrease of 40000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3260000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons, the factory inventory was 810000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons, the social inventory was 2970000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons, the total inventory was 3780000 tons, an increase of 50000 tons, and the apparent demand was 3220000 tons, a decrease of 40000 tons. [4][5] 3.3 Industry News - From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 643109 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. Among them, the residential construction area was 448460 million square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The new housing construction area was 39801 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 29304 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The housing completion area was 27694 million square meters, a decrease of 17.0%. Among them, the residential completion area was 19876 million square meters, a decrease of 18.5%. - From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 7.7% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 3.0%, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 18.8%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) increased by 2.0% year - on - year. Among them, the investment in water transportation increased by 15.9%, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 7.4%, and the investment in railway transportation increased by 4.5%. [6][7] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the futures and monthly spread trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the basis trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the spot regional price difference trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the smelting profits of long - process steel mills, the short - process electric furnace profits in the East China region, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, the output, inventory, and apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils. [11][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend. The supply side saw a week - on - week increase in overseas shipments and a decline in arrivals last week, both at high levels in the same period of the past three years, with an expected increase in arrivals this week. The demand side witnessed good resumption of production in steel mills last week, with the molten iron output continuing to rise, and the daily average molten iron reaching over 2.41 million tons. With the approaching National Day holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the firmness of the spot market [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3172 | 36 | 1.15 | 8980373 | 3148179 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3374 | 4 | 0.12 | 2777138 | 1412324 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 807.5 | 11.5 | 1.44 | 1698860 | 533529 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1232.0 | 44.5 | 3.75 | 8119133 | 943381 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1738.5 | 50.0 | 2.96 | 160217 | 52987 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, steel mills' resumption of production expanded, and the molten iron output continued to rise. The daily average molten iron reached over 2.41 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.75 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4102 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 171900 tons. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 48.91 percentage points [1][4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, overseas shipments increased week - on - week, and arrivals declined, both at high levels in the same period of the past three years, with an expected increase in arrivals this week. The total global iron ore shipments were 3573100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 816900 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2977800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 648200 tons. The Australian shipments were 2084600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 262200 tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1836200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 304900 tons. The Brazilian shipments were 893200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 386000 tons. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2850800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 583800 tons. The Australian shipments were 1981600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 202000 tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1736700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 244500 tons. The Brazilian shipments were 869300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 381800 tons. In terms of inventory, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports across the country was 143816800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 744400 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3510300 tons, an increase of 664000 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News No relevant content provided. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts related to the futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, consumption, and other aspects of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, such as the futures and spot price trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the basis trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the steel mill's profit per ton of steel, the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry's profit and loss situation, etc. [9][11]