Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices remained volatile. The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%, and the Fed may cut interest rates if the job market deteriorates. The US significantly reduced tariffs on China, but the two sides have not entered the formal negotiation stage, causing market concerns. Domestically, industrial enterprise profits turned positive, and the central bank conducted net MLF injections. The domestic economic cycle is accelerating. Fundamentally, the spot TC negative value dropped to -$40, the domestic trade spot premium was high, and the B structure of the futures market narrowed. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain volatile, pending further clarity on the Sino-US trade situation [2][3][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Price Changes**: From April 18th to April 25th, LME copper rose from $9,254/ton to $9,360/ton, a 1.15% increase; COMEX copper rose from 470.5 cents/pound to 490.05 cents/pound, a 4.16% increase; SHFE copper rose from 76,140 yuan/ton to 77,440 yuan/ton, a 1.71% increase; international copper rose from 67,750 yuan/ton to 68,990 yuan/ton, a 1.83% increase. The Shanghai-London ratio rose from 8.23 to 8.27 [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of April 25th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas decreased to 563,461 tons, a 9.44% decrease from April 18th. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 9,950 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 54,858 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 2,800 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 8,849 short tons [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro Factors**: The IMF lowered the 2025 global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%. The US may adjust tariffs on Chinese goods, and the Fed may cut interest rates if the job market worsens. Domestically, in Q1, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and in March, they increased by 2.6% year-on-year [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The spot weekly TC once widened to -$40. The global mine supply is expected to remain tight in the medium term. Domestic smelters maintain high operating rates, but imports decreased in March. In terms of demand, the bidding progress of power grid investment projects is slow, but the start-up rate of cable enterprises in March rebounded to 73.6%. The new energy industry has stable copper demand growth [10]. - **Inventory**: As of April 25th, the total global copper inventory decreased to 563,000 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the LME0 - 3 structure turned to C. The cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 37.9%. SHFE inventory decreased by 55,000 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased by 2,800 tons. The COMEX copper inventory increased to 132,000 tons [8]. 3. Industry News - Peru's Antamina copper mine had a mining accident, and production is expected to be significantly affected. In February 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 61,000 tons. In Q1, MMG's copper concentrate production reached 120,000 tons, and the production of its African mine increased. The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China increased slightly, and the start-up of refined copper rod enterprises is expected to slowly recover in early May [12][13][14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in various regions, copper spot premium trends, and the net long - position ratio of COMEX copper non - commercial traders, etc., to visually display the market situation [15][16][19]

宏观周报 4 月政治局会议：高质量自强应对冲击 核心观点 ⚫ 海外方面，美国最新经济数据依旧呈现出"硬数据"尚可、 "软数据"恶化的特征，4月制造业PMI超预期、服务业 景气降温，企业及居民对关税影响的担忧仍在发酵；密歇 根大学消费者信心指数、通胀预期仍在朝着"滞胀"的方 向演绎。特朗普关税谈判近期未见显著进展，中美贸易战 缓和预期发酵，国际金价创3500美元新高后回落，美元指 数站稳99关口，美股、铜、油均不同程度的修复，10Y美 债利率回落至4.23%。关注本周美国一季度GDP、3月ISM PMI、3月PCE数据。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 2025 年 4 月 28 日 投资咨询号：Z0017785 ⚫ 国内方面，3月工业企业利润小幅修复，上游原材料、中 游装备制造转好，企业 "量升价跌"迹象仍有待扭转。4 月政治局会议召开，明确传递出两大信号：① ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon prices were in a low - level oscillation. The main reasons were the unclear global trade situation, the转正 of the profit growth rate of Chinese industrial enterprises, and the rather sluggish sentiment in the industrial products market. The supply side was shifting to contraction, while the short - term oversupply situation continued. The social inventory slightly decreased to 602,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory was still close to 70,000 lots. Overall, the year - on - year profit growth rate of Chinese industrial enterprises turned positive, but the Sino - US trade situation remained unclear, and market concerns persisted. The supply was loose, and the consumption side showed no obvious increase. It was expected that the industrial silicon would continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [2][5][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - From April 18th to April 25th, the price of the industrial silicon main contract rose from 8,720 yuan/ton to 8,780 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69%. The prices of oxygen - passing 553 spot, non - oxygen - passing 553 spot, 421 spot, 3303 spot, and organic silicon DMC spot all decreased, with decreases of 2.54%, 2.58%, 1.88%, 0.87%, and 6.71% respectively. The price of polysilicon dense material spot remained unchanged. The industrial silicon social inventory remained at 451,000 tons [3]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: In the first quarter of this year, the year - on - year profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 0.8%, and in March, it increased by 2.6%. The profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 6.4% year - on - year, and the profit of the high - tech manufacturing industry turned from a decline to an increase [6]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of April 25th, the weekly output of industrial silicon decreased to 72,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.21%. The number of open furnaces in the three major main production areas decreased to 219, with an overall open - furnace rate of 27.48%. Some polysilicon enterprises have production reduction plans in May, and silicon wafer enterprises have production reduction expectations later. The price of photovoltaic cells has been continuously falling, and the support from the cost side has been gradually weakening. Component enterprises are pessimistic about the future market [7]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of April 25th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 602,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month. The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to decrease to 6.95 lots, equivalent to 347,000 tons. After the exchange introduced new regulations on the delivery product standards, most of the 4 - series brand warehouse receipts could not be re - registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5 - series warehouse receipts that met the new delivery standards were actively registered and stored, resulting in an increasing warehouse receipt inventory [8]. 3. Industry News - **China's wind and photovoltaic power generation**: In the first quarter of 2025, the newly added installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power generation in China reached 74.33 million kilowatts, and the cumulative installed capacity reached 1.482 billion kilowatts, exceeding the thermal power installed capacity for the first time. The power generation of wind and photovoltaic power accounted for 22.5% of the total social power consumption, an increase of 4.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year [9]. - **Saudi Arabia's photovoltaic development**: With the Saudi government gradually canceling energy subsidies, many enterprises in various industries are accelerating the shift to solar power generation. For example, Fakeeh Care Group reduced its electricity bill expenditure by more than 170,000 riyals in 2024 after installing solar panels, and Tamer Group saved more than 440,000 riyals in energy expenditure in 2024 and plans to expand the photovoltaic system to all major distribution centers within two years [10].

油脂板块震荡收涨 棕榈油或震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨61收于4036林吉特/吨，涨幅 1.53%；棕榈油09合约涨244收于8376元/吨，涨幅3%；豆 油09合约涨230收于7934元/吨，涨幅2.99%；菜油09合约 涨285收于9506元/吨，涨幅3.09%；CBOT美豆油主连涨1.38 收于49.7美分/磅，涨幅2.86%；ICE油菜籽活跃合约涨21.4 收于697.4加元/吨，涨幅3.17%。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 棕榈油周报 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 ...

钢材周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 政策积极有为 期价震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 ⚫ 宏观面：中共中央政治局召开会议，会议强调，要加 紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极 的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加力实施城市更 新行动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。加快构 建房地产发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给，优化存 量商品房收购政策，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。 持续稳定和活跃资本市场。 ⚫ 基本面： ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The fundamental outlook is marginally weakening, and lithium prices may experience a second bottoming. In terms of supply, some lithium salt plants had regular production cuts in April, and the resumption of production in May will increase domestic lithium salt supply. Meanwhile, Chile's lithium salt exports to China increased significantly in March, and there is also an expectation of an increase in imported resources. On the demand side, the high - frequency sales growth rate of new energy vehicles under the Passenger Car Association's statistics has weakened, and the boost from the April auto show to consumption was slightly less than expected. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio under the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' statistics remains at a low level, indicating a gap between actual consumption and enterprise expectations, and the inventory pressure of finished vehicles persists. As the automotive consumption enters the seasonal off - season, the fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally. Technically, the lithium price initially bottomed out last period, but the subsequent correction was less than the previous high, and after the short - covering rebound, many long - positions also left, suggesting that trend - following long - positions are not firm. With the marginal weakening of the fundamentals, lithium prices may have a second bottoming [4]. Group 2: Market Data - Imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%) decreased from $118/ton to $116/ton, a change of -$2.00 and -1.69% [5]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from $730/ton to $722/ton, a change of -$8.00 and -1.10% [5]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from $730/ton to $722/ton, a change of -$8 and -1.10% [5]. - The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 7.04 million yuan/ton to 6.82 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.22 million yuan and -3.13% [5]. - The spot price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 7.05 million yuan/ton to 0 million yuan/ton, a change of -7.05 million yuan and -100.00% [5]. - The main contract price of lithium carbonate decreased from 7.04 million yuan/ton to 6.84 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.20 million yuan and -2.90% [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse) decreased from 6.93 million yuan/ton to 6.80 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.13 million yuan and -1.88% [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine) decreased from 7.42 million yuan/ton to 7.37 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.05 million yuan and -0.67% [5]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 96,705 tons to 95,843 tons, a change of -862 tons and -0.89% [5]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate decreased from 3.32 million yuan/ton to 3.29 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.03 million yuan and -0.90% [5]. - The price of lithium cobalt oxide increased from 21.10 million yuan/ton to 21.30 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.20 million yuan and 0.95% [5]. - The price of ternary material (811) decreased from 14.95 million yuan/ton to 14.75 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.20 million yuan and -1.34% [5]. - The price of ternary material (622) decreased from 13.30 million yuan/ton to 13.15 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.15 million yuan and -1.13% [5]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of April 25, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 31,792 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 72,280 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2507 was 217,300 lots [7]. - As of April 25, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,305 tons, a decrease of 190 tons from the previous period. Domestic production remains at a relatively low level, but with the end of maintenance in some lithium salt plants in May, domestic supply may be marginally corrected. With the ramping - up of northern salt lake resources and limited demand growth, the new supply will be internally replaced, and the cost center of lithium salt is expected to move down [7]. - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Among them, 12,700 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month increase of 67.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%; 4,646 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.3%. Chile's lithium carbonate exports in March were about 23,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 8%/37%. Among them, 16,600 tons were exported to China, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 3%/38%. In the future, the scale of lithium salt imports from Argentina is relatively stable, and the increase in domestic resources from Argentine salt lakes is limited in the short term. The main change in imports comes from Chile's shipments. The significant increase in Chile's lithium salt shipments to China in March may push up the domestic lithium salt supply scale in May [8]. - In March, about 534,500 tons of lithium ore were imported, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%. Among them, 307,700 tons were imported from Australia, a month - on - month increase of 32.6% and a year - on - year increase of 30.5%; 51,800 tons were imported from South Africa, a month - on - month decrease of 65.3%; 58,400 tons were imported from Zimbabwe, a month - on - month decrease of 39.9%; 85,100 tons were imported from Nigeria, a month - on - month increase of 82.8% [8]. - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of April 25, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 63,996 tons, with an operating rate of 59.27%, a decrease of 1.71 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 38,378 tons, an increase of 60 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,600 tons, with an operating rate of 45.02%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,775 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous period. During the reporting period, the cathode material prices changed little. Most downstream enterprises have completed pre - holiday stockpiling, and when the price broke through this time, downstream spot price - fixing during trading was more cautious. The spot market had only rigid - demand purchases, and the price stimulus to material manufacturers' purchases was less than before. Currently, some material manufacturers may start a second price - increase negotiation with battery manufacturers, but the price - increase results may still show quality differentiation [9][10]. - From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 478,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% compared with the same period in April last year and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 53.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 2.898 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33%. In early April, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles slowed down significantly, dragging down the annual consumption growth rate. Under the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' statistics, the new energy sales - to - production ratio is at a low level, and the post - holiday rebound is less than in previous periods. The weak resilience of demand has led to a mismatch between vehicle manufacturers' production scheduling and sales expectations, and the inventory pressure of finished vehicles persists. Short - term consumption may depend on the effectiveness of the auto show in the second half of the month. Currently, China and the EU have started negotiations on electric vehicle prices, which will replace the tariff plan with a minimum pricing plan. However, regardless of the pricing result, the competitiveness of domestic brands in the European market will weaken marginally, and external demand for exports is not optimistic. Technologically, there have been many breakthroughs recently. CATL announced that it will launch a new sodium battery at the end of 2025. At the same time, Great Wall Motor and Guoxuan High - tech have both made progress in solid - state batteries [11]. - As of April 25, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 95,843 tons, a decrease of about - 862 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 32,560 tons, an increase of 2,860 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 63,283 tons, a decrease of 3,722 tons from the previous period. Overall, after excluding the change in exchange inventory, the market inventory is still decreasing, showing a divergence from the significant increase in factory inventory, indicating that after the second price breakdown, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is weak, and they mainly focus on digesting existing inventory [12]. This Week's Outlook - The fundamental outlook is marginally weakening, and lithium prices may experience a second bottoming. The supply in May will increase due to the resumption of production in some lithium salt plants and the expected increase in imports from Chile. On the demand side, the high - frequency sales growth rate of new energy vehicles has weakened, the boost from the auto show was less than expected, the sales - to - production ratio is low, and the consumption is entering the seasonal off - season. Technically, the lithium price's previous correction was less than the previous high, and long - positions left after the short - covering rebound. The increase in open interest slowed down while trading volume increased significantly [4][13]. Group 4: Industry News - The largest hard - rock lithium mine in Asia obtained a mining license. The Verasto lithium polymetallic mine in Keshiketeng Banner, Chifeng City, is the largest hard - rock lithium mine in Asia and the largest single - tin mine north of the Yangtze River. On April 21, the Ministry of Natural Resources officially approved and granted the mining license to Inner Mongolia Verasto Mining Co., Ltd., marking the implementation stage of lithium and tin resource development and utilization in Chifeng City. The Verasto lithium polymetallic mine mainly contains valuable metal elements such as lithium, tin, tungsten, and zinc, with characteristics of shallow burial, thick ore bodies, large resource reserves, and high grades. The total proven ore reserves are 55.27 million tons, including 41.98 million tons of Li2O (lithium oxide) ore, with a metal content of 576,000 tons and an average grade of 1.37% [14]. - CATL launched the second - generation Shenxing ultra - fast charging battery. On April 21, CATL released the second - generation Shenxing ultra - fast charging battery, a lithium iron phosphate battery. According to CATL, the battery has a range of 800 kilometers, a peak charging rate close to 12C, and a peak charging power of more than 1.3 megawatts, enabling "5 - minute charging for a range of over 520 kilometers" [14]. - Hunan Yueneng plans to invest in a 20,000 - ton lithium battery recycling project. Recently, the official website of Xiangxiang City Government in Hunan Province released the environmental impact approval decision and publicity of the "Annual 20,000 - ton Waste Lithium - Ion Battery Disassembly and Recycling Project of Hunan Yueneng Circular Technology Co., Ltd." [14]. - The second - phase project of a 120,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate production base started. Recently, under the strategic background of deepening new energy industry cooperation between China and Indonesia, the second - phase project of the 120,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate cathode material production base of Longpan Technology's (603906) Indonesian lithium source was launched in Semarang, Indonesia [15].

豆粕周报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 现货大幅飙升 连粕反弹后或走弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆7月合约涨12.5收于1059.25美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅1.19%；豆粕09合约涨10收于3031元/吨，涨幅 0.33%；华南豆粕现货涨730收于3850元/吨，涨幅23.4%； 菜粕09合约涨87收于2684元/吨，涨幅3.35%；广西菜粕现 货涨210收于2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The focus of alumina prices remains on the changes in supply - side production capacity. Currently, the supply side has both negative factors such as the upcoming commissioning of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled production capacity, and positive factors like some regional production capacity being in a loss - making state and potentially undergoing overhauls. Amid the stalemate between bulls and bears, alumina prices are expected to have support at the bottom and fluctuate within a range [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From April 17 to April 25, 2025, the price of the active alumina futures contract increased from 2828 yuan/ton to 2846 yuan/ton, a rise of 18 yuan/ton; the price of domestic alumina spot rose from 2888 yuan/ton to 2897 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton; the spot premium increased from 60 yuan/ton to 81 yuan/ton, a rise of 21 yuan/ton; the FOB price of Australian alumina remained unchanged at 347.5 US dollars/ton; the import profit and loss improved from - 293.47 yuan/ton to - 285.74 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.7 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 294,269 tons to 274,723 tons, a decrease of 19,546 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory decreased from 8100 tons to 7800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons. The prices of domestic bauxite in some regions remained unchanged, while the CIF price of Guinean bauxite decreased from 88 US dollars/ton to 80 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton [3] 3.2 Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 0.99% last week, closing at 2846 yuan/ton. The national weighted - average price of the spot market on Friday was 2897 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous Friday. Affected by the cost - price inversion of alumina enterprises, the purchase price of domestic bauxite in some regions was slightly reduced again, and there may be further downward adjustments in the future. In 2025, China's total bauxite imports reached 47.089 million tons, and the total imports in March alone were 1.6466 million tons, breaking the previous monthly import record. On the supply side, there were both production increases and decreases in the alumina market last week, and overall, the operating production capacity increased significantly. Some previously overhauled alumina enterprises resumed production, while some enterprises started roasting furnace overhauls due to unstable product quality. As of April 24, China's built - in alumina production capacity was 107.4 million tons, the operating production capacity was 85.4 million tons, and the operating rate was 79.52%. On the consumption side, some electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong was transferred to Yunnan, and production capacity in Guangxi and Guizhou was restored and newly commissioned. Overall, the theoretical operating production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly this week, and the demand for alumina increased. As of now, the theoretical operating production capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry this week was 43.825 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from last week. The alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12,958 tons to 275,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory was 7800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [4][5] 3.3 Market Outlook - Last week, some previously overhauled and reduced - production alumina production capacity in the southwest and Guangxi regions resumed production, but there was also new production capacity undergoing overhauls. Overall, the current supply - side operating production capacity increased slightly compared to last week. On the consumption side, the weekly theoretical operating production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased, but most raw material purchases were based on long - term contracts, and spot transactions were relatively light. On the cost side, the disturbance of imported ore did not have much impact on the supply. The profit pressure of alumina was transmitted upwards, and there was still downward pressure on ore prices. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12,958 tons to 275,000 tons last week, and the factory warehouse inventory was 7800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons. Overall, the focus of alumina prices remains on the changes in supply - side production capacity. Currently, the supply side has both negative factors such as the upcoming commissioning of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled production capacity, and positive factors like some regional production capacity being in a loss - making state and potentially undergoing overhauls. Amid the stalemate between bulls and bears, alumina prices are expected to have support at the bottom and fluctuate within a range [7] 3.4 Industry News - According to Baichuan Yingfu, a 400,000 - ton production line of an alumina plant in Henan with a built - in production capacity of 1.4 million tons has reduced production, and the operating production capacity is 1 million tons, with the resumption time to be determined. On April 24, the Zhalute Banner Branch of the Tongliao Ecological Environment Bureau released an announcement on the second public notice of the environmental impact assessment of the Jintai and Tongliao Green Aluminum - based New Materials Source - Network - Load - Storage Energy Optimization Demonstration Project. The project is located in the Zhahao'er Industrial Park, Tongliao City, with an annual production capacity of 2 million tons of alumina. The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the Market Access Negative List (2025 Edition), stating that the addition of new electrolytic aluminum and alumina production capacity is strictly prohibited in key regions [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina exchange inventory, and alumina cost - profit [10][14]

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