1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamentals of the nickel industry are under pressure. The weakening of ferronickel prices and significant refined nickel inventory pressure are dragging down nickel prices. If the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, nickel prices may not rise significantly and could even decline further. However, in the long - term, global fiscal and monetary easing cycles, combined with China's anti - involution policies, will support nickel prices, and the new RKAB approval in the new year also presents potential positive factors for nickel prices. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, one can consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term operating range of the main SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is expected to be 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: Nickel ore prices have been stable recently. In the Philippines, despite the decline in domestic ferronickel prices and weakening demand, the approaching rainy season in the main producing areas has strengthened the mines' willingness to hold prices, so the short - term decline of Philippine nickel ore prices is unlikely. In Indonesia, the overall supply - demand remains loose, but due to concerns about the RKAB approval quotas in the fourth quarter and 2026, smelters have accelerated stockpiling, limiting the downward space of ore prices [11]. - **Ferronickel**: Ferronickel prices have continued to weaken recently. The slow de - stocking of stainless steel social inventory, limited support for stainless steel prices during the peak season, and low procurement willingness of steel enterprises have led to the weakening of ferronickel prices. The market has gradually shifted to trading the pessimistic expectation of the fundamentals after the peak season, and there is still room for further decline in the future [11]. - **Intermediate products**: On the supply side, the market's available and tradable supply has remained tight, strengthening the sellers' bargaining power, and some traders have raised their quotes, providing price support. On the demand side, as the downstream industries enter the peak demand season, enterprises' raw material procurement demand has been released. In this context, downstream enterprises' acceptance of high - priced MHP has gradually increased, and the MHP coefficient price has remained strong recently [11]. - **Refined nickel**: After the holiday, affected by the non - ferrous metals sector, nickel prices rebounded strongly. However, as the upward driving force weakened and market sentiment faded, nickel prices adjusted downward. Macroscopically, the US government shutdown and the continued Sino - US trade frictions have significantly reduced market risk appetite. In the spot market, overall transactions were average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands remained stable [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot market**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel decreased, with decreases of 1,420 yuan/ton (- 1.14%) and 1,500 yuan/ton (- 1.22%) respectively. The spot price ratio increased by 0.16 (1.99%), and the import loss decreased by 3.05 percentage points [15]. - **Futures market**: The LME closing price decreased by 105 US dollars (- 0.69%), and the SHFE closing price decreased by 1,020 yuan (- 0.83%). The Russian nickel premium remained unchanged, while the LME nickel premium decreased by 8.2 US dollars/ton. The three - month price ratio increased by 0.18 (2.34%). The LME position decreased by 0.36 million lots (- 1.03%), and the SHFE position increased by 1.44 million lots (6.81%) [15]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory increased by 1.32 million tons (5.54%), the SHFE inventory increased by 0.13 million tons (3.93%), the bonded area inventory decreased by 0.02 million tons (- 4.89%), the nickel plate spot inventory increased by 0.21 million tons (4.86%), and the nickel bean spot inventory decreased by 0.02 million tons (- 11.88%) [15]. 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The report provides data on Philippine nickel ore exports, domestic nickel ore imports, port inventories, and prices in Indonesia and the Philippines through multiple charts [29][31][33]. - **Ferronickel**: It shows the monthly production and production profit of ferronickel in Indonesia and China through charts [35][37]. - **Intermediate products**: It presents the production, import volume, and price of Indonesian MHP and ice - nickel, as well as the price and transaction coefficient of intermediate products through charts [39][41][43]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: It shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rate of domestic refined nickel through charts [47]. - **Demand**: It reflects the demand for refined nickel from aspects such as domestic stainless steel production, social inventory, manufacturing terminal demand, and real estate demand through charts [49][51]. - **Import and export**: It shows the import volume and import profit and loss of domestic refined nickel through charts [53]. - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the global visible nickel inventory was reported at 270,000 tons, and the report also shows the domestic refined nickel inventory and LME regional inventory through charts [56][58]. - **Cost**: It shows the production cost and profit margin of domestic refined nickel by raw material and process through charts [59]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: It shows the production and net import volume of Chinese nickel sulfate through charts [63]. - **Demand**: It reflects the demand for nickel sulfate from aspects such as ternary power battery loading volume and Chinese ternary precursor production through charts [66]. - **Cost and price**: It shows the production cost, price, and main raw material production profit margin of battery - grade nickel sulfate through charts [68]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - **Global supply outlook**: It shows the global nickel supply outlook through a chart [75]. - **Quarterly supply - demand balance forecast**: From 2023 to 2025, the supply of nickel has generally exceeded the demand, with a total supply - demand surplus of 82,900 tons in 2023, 2,720 tons in 2024, and it is expected to be 166,400 tons in 2025 [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The lead ore port inventory has increased, the lead concentrate TC has stabilized, and the smelting start - up rate of primary lead has remained high. The raw material inventory of secondary lead has slightly increased, the smelting profit of secondary lead has improved, and the weekly start - up rate of secondary smelters has increased. The start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has recovered, the factory inventory of lead - acid batteries has decreased to 19.7 days, and the dealer inventory of lead - acid batteries has decreased to 39.7 days, reducing the pressure on finished product inventory. The social inventory and factory inventory of lead ingots have continued to decline, and it is expected that Shanghai lead will run strongly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.19% to 17,083 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 79,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME lead 3S fell 15.5 to 1,972.5 US dollars/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 152,900 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,900 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,850 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory remained flat at 33,800 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 32,100 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 252,000 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 156,400 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 44.99 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 88.3 US dollars/ton. **Cross - market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.218, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 49.44 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 52,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 424,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The imported TC of lead concentrate was - 110 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary start - up rate was 66.64%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3,000 tons. At the secondary end, the lead waste inventory was 76,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 36,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. On the demand side, the start - up rate of lead batteries was 74.97% [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In August 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 134,800 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 15.9% and a month - on - month change of 10.4%. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 919,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 31.5%. In August 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 185,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 15.8% and a month - on - month change of 20.0%. From January to August, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,191,100 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.3%. In August 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 154,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.8% and a month - on - month change of 14.8%. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,028,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 18.5% [15][17]. - **Production**: In September 2025, China's lead concentrate output was 151,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of - 3.0%. From January to September, the total lead concentrate output was 1,249,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.5%. In September 2025, China's primary lead output was 327,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.4% and a month - on - month change of 1.0%. From January to September, the total output of primary lead ingots was 2,860,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.3% [17][26]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 52,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 424,000 tons, equivalent to 26.1 days. The imported TC of lead concentrate was - 110 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 350 yuan/metal ton [11][21][23]. 3.3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the secondary end, the lead waste inventory was 76,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 36,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. In September 2025, China's secondary lead output was 317,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.5% and a month - on - month change of - 1.0%. From January to September, the total output of secondary lead ingots was 2,888,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.7% [31][33]. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In August 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 11,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 86.1% and a month - on - month change of - 10.5%. From January to August, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 67,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.2%. In August 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 656,200 tons, a year - on - year change of - 5.4% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to August, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 5,172,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: On the demand side, the start - up rate of lead batteries was 74.97%. In August 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 639,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 5.3% and a month - on - month change of - 1.9%. From January to August, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 5,117,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 1.6% [40]. - **Battery Exports**: In August 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 17.8165 million, and the net export weight of batteries was 97,900 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 61,200 tons, a year - on - year change of - 11.3% and a month - on - month change of - 8.2%. From January to August, the total net export of lead in batteries was 494,100 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries increased by - 4.4% year - on - year [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In September 2025, the finished product inventory of lead batteries in factories decreased from 20.5 days to 19.7 days, and the inventory days of lead batteries for dealers decreased from 42 days to 39.7 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in the output of electric bicycles directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the rapid development of communication technology has led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Inventory**: The total domestic lead ingot inventory situation shows that the domestic social inventory remained flat at 33,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 252,000 tons [11][71]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In August 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 16,900 tons, and from January to August, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 55,000 tons. In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 8,000 tons, and from January to July, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 53,900 tons [63][66]. 3.6. Price Outlook - **Basis and Spread**: The domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was - 15 yuan/ton. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 44.99 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 88.3 US dollars/ton. The cross - market Shanghai - London ratio was 1.218, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 49.44 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead has decreased, the net long position of investment funds in London lead has increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has increased. From the perspective of positions, the short - term guidance is bullish [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of urea remains weak, with high enterprise inventories suppressing prices. The current low - season situation makes it difficult to digest the existing output, and the weak - reality pattern is unlikely to change in the short term [12]. - Although the absolute price is low, the downward trend of the futures price has slowed down. The overall valuation of urea is low, but there is a lack of effective positive factors. It is recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, enterprise inventories are at a high level year - on - year, and the basis and inter - month spreads are still weak. The weak - reality pattern is difficult to change in the short term [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The enterprise operating rate is 80.64%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.25%, returning to a seasonal neutral level. The daily output is 182,200 tons, with more short - stop devices, and it is expected to decline in the short term [12]. - **Demand**: It is the agricultural off - season, and agricultural demand is postponed due to weather. The compound fertilizer industry is in the maintenance season, with the operating rate at a low level year - on - year and the finished - product inventory decreasing from a high level. Overall, both industrial and agricultural demand are at a low level [12]. - **Valuation**: The 1 - 5 spread is weak, and the basis is at a low level without improvement. The export profit is high, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued [12]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventories are 1.6154 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 171,500 tons, at a high level year - on - year. Port inventories are 446,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,000 tons, and the enthusiasm for cargo collection at ports has increased after the Indian tender was announced [12]. - **Market Logic**: The weak - reality pattern in the domestic market remains unchanged. Prices are continuously weak due to high inventories, but the downward trend of the futures price has slowed down at low absolute prices [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Data**: The prices of different futures contracts and spot markets in various regions have changed. For example, the 09 contract price is 1,705 yuan, the 01 contract price is 1,602 yuan, and the 05 contract price is 1,672 yuan. The basis and spreads between contracts have also changed [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The market is in a state of position - reduction and consolidation [28]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: Enterprise profits are continuously weakening, including fixed - bed profits, water - coal - slurry profits, and gas - head production profits [32]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventories are increasing, and port inventories are also rising. The report also includes inventory change projections [37][39]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Production Capacity**: There are planned new production capacity projects, and some enterprises have started production in 2024 - 2025 [45]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate has decreased, with more short - stop devices. Gas - head operating rates are at a low level year - on - year, and there are more maintenance projects for coal - based production [47]. - **Device Maintenance**: Many enterprises are undergoing maintenance, including both planned and unplanned maintenance, which has affected production [49]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption Projection**: The report includes monthly consumption data and downstream demand proportion analysis [54]. - **Nitrogen Source Comparison**: The ratios of urea to other nitrogen sources such as synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate are presented [59]. - **Melamine**: The operating rate, profit, and export volume of melamine are analyzed [62]. - **Terminal Demand**: Terminal demand is affected by factors such as the real estate market and export of related products [70]. - **Export**: Urea export profits are good, and the export volume is also presented in the report [81]. 3.6. Option - Related - **Option Data**: The report includes data on option open interest, trading volume, PCR, and volatility, as well as the relationship between option volatility and futures prices [90]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - **Industry Chain Diagram**: Diagrams of the urea industry chain, research framework, and industry chain characteristics are provided [104]. - **Fertilizer Demand Seasonality**: The fertilizer demand seasonality in different regions of China and major countries around the world is summarized [112].

持续上涨后，波动加剧 股指周报 2025/10/18 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 目录 06 估值 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 重要消息：1、北京时间10月18日上午，国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话，双方同 意尽快举行新一轮中美经贸磋商；2、工信部：到2027年实现城域算力1毫秒时延圈覆盖率不低于70% 打造高品质毫秒入算底座；3、寒武纪 第三季度营收为17.27亿元，同比增长1332.52%；净利润为5.67亿元。紫金矿业：前三季度归母净利润同比增长55%；4、摩根大通宣布未来 十年将为美国稀土、AI、能源、机器人等关键产业提供高达1.5万亿美元融资与项目支持；这项计划的出台恰逢美国政府到处入股关键产业 公司的节点。 经济与企业盈利：1、国家统计局：8月份规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长5.2%，2025年1—7月份全国固定资产投资增长0.5%，7月份社会 消费品零售总额同比增长3.4%，增速延续回落态势；2、中国9月官方制造业PMI为4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes and the decline in risk appetite are conducive to the repair of the bond market. However, the uncertainty of tariff progress in the later stage is high. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power [13]. - From the perspective of fundamentals, the September PMI data shows that the manufacturing prosperity has rebounded but is still below the boom - bust line, with both supply and demand ends warming up month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing sector has declined slightly. Under the "anti - involution" policy, the price level has rebounded, but affected by the issuance rhythm of government bonds and the base, the growth rate of social financing has declined marginally [10][13]. - In terms of funds, the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve. The current market may generally remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand repair and improved inflation expectations. The rhythm needs to pay attention to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds. If the stock market cools down and the allocation power gradually increases, the bond market is expected to repair in a volatile manner [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy**: The September PMI data shows that the manufacturing prosperity has rebounded but is still below the boom - bust line, with both supply and demand ends warming up month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing sector has declined slightly. The "anti - involution" policy has boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production still needs to be observed. In the future, exports may face certain pressure. The Fed has cut interest rates, and the subsequent degree of easing needs to pay attention to the inflation changes caused by tariffs. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of September 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The central government has arranged 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local governments [10][11]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 789.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1021 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturing. This week, there was a net withdrawal of 381.9 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.41% [13]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10Y treasury bond yield closed at 1.82%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.04BP; the 30Y treasury bond yield closed at 2.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 8.50BP; the latest 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00BP [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - position strategy on dips, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended period of 6 months. The core driving logic is loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [15]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Contract Market Performance**: The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis spreads of T, TL, TF, and TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL contracts [18][24][27][30][33][38]. 3.3. Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - GDP: In the second quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations, and the economic growth in the first half of the year maintained resilience [47]. - PMI: In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the service industry PMI decreased by 0.4 points from the previous value to 50.1%. The manufacturing and service industries showed differentiation. The sub - items of the manufacturing PMI showed that both supply and demand ends had warmed up [47][48][53]. - Price Index: In September, CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. In terms of month - on - month data, CPI increased by 0.1%, core CPI remained unchanged, and PPI remained unchanged [56]. - Export: In September 2025, China's import and export data slightly exceeded expectations. Exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 27.0% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [59]. - Industrial Added Value and Social Consumption: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3.4%, showing a slowdown [62]. - Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate: From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, and the real estate investment growth rate was - 12.9%. In August, the prices of second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The new construction area and construction area of houses also showed a downward trend year - on - year [65][68]. - **Foreign Economy** - US Economy: In the second quarter, the annualized current - price GDP of the US was 3.0331 trillion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In August, the unadjusted CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year. The order amount of durable goods increased by 7.63% year - on - year, and the non - farm employment population increased by 22,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%. In September, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50 [74][77][80]. - EU Economy: In the second quarter, the EU's GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter [80]. - Eurozone Economy: In September, the final value of the Eurozone's CPI increased by 2.2% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.8, and the service industry PMI was 51.3 [83]. 3.4. Liquidity - In September, the growth rate of M1 was 7.2%, and the growth rate of M2 was 8.4%. The increment of social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 233.9 billion yuan. The main source of social financing was the growth of government bonds. In the sub - items of social financing, the year - on - year growth rate of government bonds slowed down, and the financing of the real - sector remained stable. In September, the balance of MLF was 5.85 trillion yuan, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 789.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 381.9 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.41% [88][91][94]. 3.5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rates: The report lists the latest yields of domestic and US treasury bonds and their week - on - week changes, as well as the changes in repurchase rates [97]. - Exchange Rates: No specific analysis of exchange rates is provided, only relevant charts are presented [108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Sino - US trade situation has been volatile. LME aluminum has outperformed SHFE aluminum due to the limited amount of tradable supply. Currently, the tense Sino - US trade situation may ease marginally, and market sentiment is expected to improve. From an industrial perspective, after the domestic price decline, the aluminum ingot inventory has decreased marginally, and the absolute inventory level is low. Coupled with the rising copper price, the aluminum price is strongly supported and may fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be between 20,700 - 21,400 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum 3M contract is expected to be between 2,720 - 2,850 US dollars/ton [12]. - This week, the aluminum price fluctuated weakly, showing a divergence pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets. The main contract of SHFE aluminum fell 0.67% this week, while LME aluminum rose 0.89%. In the domestic futures - spot structure, the contango of SHFE aluminum has widened to 40 yuan/ton, and the East China region has shifted to a premium, indicating a relatively tight local spot supply. Looking ahead, the fundamentals present both support and pressure. The low - level social inventory supports the downside of the aluminum price, but the weak - to - stable start - up rate of the downstream processing industry will limit the upside space of the price. It is expected that next week, the operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract will be between 20,600 - 21,100 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum 3M contract will be between 2,700 - 2,800 US dollars/ton [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply Side: As of the end of September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was approximately 44.06 million tons. The commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects led to a slight increase in the operating capacity. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.1% year - on - year and decreased by 3.2% month - on - month. In October, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly. In September, the domestic aluminum - water ratio rebounded by 1.2% month - on - month, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 8.7% year - on - year and 7.9% month - on - month to approximately 857,000 tons [12]. - Inventory & Spot: According to MYSTELL data, the inventory on Thursday this week was 642,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from last Thursday; the bonded - area inventory this week was 80,000 tons; the total aluminum bar inventory on Thursday this week was 161,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last Thursday; the global LME aluminum inventory was 491,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from last week. The spot of domestic East China aluminum ingots has shifted from a discount to a premium, and the LME market Cash/3M premium is 12.8 US dollars/ton [12]. - Imports and Exports: In September 2025, China exported 521,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. This week, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots has widened, and the export advantage of aluminum products has increased [12]. - Demand Side: According to SMM research, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises this week was 62.5%, remaining stable on the margin and slightly lower than the same period last year. The trading volume in the aluminum spot market has improved as the price declined [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The main contract of SHFE aluminum fell 0.67% this week to 20,910 yuan/ton (as of the Friday afternoon close); LME aluminum rose 0.89% this week to 2,778.5 US dollars/ton [21]. - Term Spread: The contango between the first - and third - month contracts of SHFE aluminum has widened from - 15 to - 40 yuan/ton [25]. - Spot Basis: The East China region has shifted to a premium, the South China region is at par, and the discount in the Central China region has widened [31]. - Regional Premium - Discount Spread: The East China spot has strengthened relatively [37]. - LME Premium - Discount: The LME aluminum Cash/3M premium has widened [41]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: The primary aluminum smelting profit has increased compared to last week and is at a historical high [45]. - Inventory: - Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: According to MYSTELL data, the inventory on Thursday this week was 642,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons from Monday and an increase of 8,000 tons from last Thursday. According to SMM statistics, the bonded - area inventory this week was 80,000 tons [50]. - Aluminum Bar Inventory: According to MYSTELL data, the total aluminum bar inventory on Thursday this week was 161,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from Monday and an increase of 7,000 tons from last Thursday [53]. - LME Inventory: The global LME aluminum inventory is 491,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from last week, and is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. In September, the proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased [58][61]. 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite Price: The domestic and overseas bauxite prices have remained stable [68]. - Alumina Price: The domestic alumina price has decreased by 38 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the import price has decreased by 4 US dollars/ton [71]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: The anode price has remained flat, and the thermal coal price has increased slightly compared to last week [75]. 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In September, the monthly alumina production was 7.746 million tons, a decrease of 132,000 tons from August and a year - on - year increase of 12.7% [81]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was approximately 44.06 million tons, with a slight month - on - month increase in the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and a slight month - on - month increase in the industry operating rate; the production in September decreased by 3.2% month - on - month; in October, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly [84]. - Aluminum - Water Ratio: The aluminum bar processing fee has increased compared to last week. In September, the domestic aluminum - water ratio rebounded by 1.2%, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 8.7% year - on - year and 7.9% month - on - month to approximately 857,000 tons [87]. - Provincial Electrolytic Aluminum Production: The electrolytic aluminum production in each province decreased in September compared to August, with Shandong's production decreasing by 38,000 tons [92]. 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream Operating Rate: - In September, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased month - on - month, and the operating rate of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils rebounded [103]. - In September, the operating rates of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods rebounded month - on - month [106]. - In September, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded. This week, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys has widened by 44 yuan/ton to 329 yuan/ton [109]. - Terminal Demand: The production schedules of the three major white goods released by Industry Online show that in October 2025, the production schedule for household air conditioners is 1.153 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0% with an expanding decline; the production schedule for refrigerators is 863,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8% with a slightly narrowing decline; the production schedule for washing machines is 908,000 units, a slight year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. Currently, the real - estate data is also weak, automobile production and sales are acceptable, and the production schedule for photovoltaic modules is expected to rebound slightly [113]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - Primary Aluminum Imports: In August 2025, China imported 217,000 tons of primary aluminum, a month - on - month decrease of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.1%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 1.714 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. This week, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots has widened [118]. - Aluminum Ingot Imports: In August, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Australia, etc. Among them, the import volume from Russia accounted for 63%, and the import volume from India accounted for 15% [122]. - Unwrought Aluminum and Aluminum Products Exports: In September 2025, China exported 521,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; from January to September, the cumulative export volume was 4.516 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0% [126]. - Recycled Aluminum Imports: In August 2025, the import volume of recycled aluminum was 173,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 25.3%. From January to August, the import volume was 1.3453 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% [126]. - Bauxite Imports: In August 2025, China imported 18.289 million tons of bauxite, with imported ore accounting for 75.70%. From January to August, the cumulative bauxite import volume was 141.49 million tons [130]. - Alumina Exports: In August 2025, China exported 180,500 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 21.3% and a year - on - year increase of 26.0%. From January to August, the cumulative alumina export volume was 1.753 million tons [130].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the prices of platinum - group metals continued their strong performance, with palladium showing a more obvious catch - up rally. The prices of precious metals were driven up by the US small - bank crisis and Powell's dovish remarks. However, on Friday night, the prices of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all dropped significantly, ending the short - term accelerated upward trend. It is expected that platinum and palladium prices will enter a high - level consolidation range. But in the medium term, due to macro and spot factors, it is difficult for the prices to decline trend - wise [3][9][10]. - Powell's monetary policy stance was dovish this week, announcing that the Fed's balance - sheet reduction process is about to end. The market has fully priced in 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in the October and December FOMC meetings, and the new Fed chairperson will be confirmed in December. The subsequent macro - environment will continue to be bullish for platinum - group metal prices [10]. - The overseas platinum lease rate has been consistently above 10%, indicating a mid - term structural shortage of overseas spot due to tightened mine supply and increased demand, which cannot be alleviated in the short term. Overall, platinum - group metal prices are expected to oscillate at high levels and are more likely to rise than fall [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Changes**: NYMEX platinum's active - contract price rose 0.56% to $1,629.8 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's active - contract price rose 4.23% to $1,516 per ounce [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: NYMEX platinum's price is expected to oscillate at high levels after reaching the resistance level of $1,770 per ounce, with support at $1,511 per ounce. NYMEX palladium's price is expected to consolidate at high levels after being suppressed at $1,700 per ounce, with support at $1,447 per ounce [12][15]. 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: NYMEX platinum's active - contract price rose 0.56% to $1,629.8 per ounce, and the total position as of September 23 was 97,978 lots. As of October 17, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 398.79 yuan per gram [21][25]. - **Palladium Price**: NYMEX palladium's active - contract price rose 4.23% to $1,516 per ounce, and the total position as of the latest report was 20,282 lots [22]. - **Lease Rate**: As of October 17, the one - month implied lease rate for platinum rose to 18.93%, and that for palladium was 3.25% [29]. - **CFTC Net Positions**: As of the September 23 report, NYMEX platinum's managed - fund net long position increased by 3,638 lots to 18,285 lots, and NYMEX palladium's managed - fund net short position was 5,176 lots [32][35]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: As of October 17, the total holdings of platinum ETFs were 76.28 tons, and CME platinum inventory was 21.19 tons [46][53]. - **Palladium**: As of October 17, the total holdings of palladium ETFs were 14.84 tons, and CME palladium inventory was 5,819.47 kilograms [49][58]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The total platinum output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024. China's platinum imports in August were 8.21 tons, showing a rebound from July [64][70]. - **Palladium Supply**: The total palladium output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024. China's palladium imports in August were 2.06 tons, showing a decline from July [67][73]. - **Demand**: The report analyzes the production of passenger cars in China, Japan, Germany, and the US, as well as the global supply - demand balance sheets for platinum and palladium [74][84][85]. 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - The report provides data and charts on NYMEX platinum and palladium monthly spreads, as well as the spreads between London spot prices and NYMEX prices [87][104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was strong, but the prices of finished steel products fluctuated downward. In terms of fundamentals, the output of rebar decreased slightly, and the demand picked up after the holiday, leading to a slight reduction in inventory. However, the overall demand recovery was still insufficient. The output of hot-rolled coil continued to decline, and the demand also increased after the holiday, but the inventory remained at a high level, and the fundamental contradictions were still prominent. The spread between rebar and hot-rolled coil further narrowed. At the macro level, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to make an overall plan for the economic development in the next five years, which is of great guiding significance for the macroeconomic trend. In general, the current steel demand is weak. Although the previous remarks of Trump caused short-term disturbances to commodity prices, the medium - and long - term trend of steel prices has not changed fundamentally. In the short term, the pattern of weak real steel demand is still difficult to improve significantly, and attention should be paid to the intensity and direction of policy introduction around the Fourth Plenary Session [10][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - side - **Production volume**: This week, the total rebar output was 2.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.86%. The cumulative output was 89.3101 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.99%. The long - process output was 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.81%. The short - process output was 260,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.97%. The daily average output of hot metal was 2.4095 million tons, and the hot - season hot metal output remained above 2.4 million tons [6]. - **Capacity utilization**: This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90% (previous value: 91%), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53% (previous value: 51%) [55]. - **Regional production volume**: The rebar output in the northern region was 420,000 tons (previous value: 450,000 tons), and in the southern region was 780,000 tons (previous value: 810,000 tons). The output in East China was 810,000 tons, in Jiangsu was 350,000 tons, in Shandong was 80,000 tons, and in Anhui was 130,000 tons. The output in Guangdong was 210,000 tons, and in Guangxi was 60,000 tons [63][66][69] 3.2 Demand - side - **Consumption volume**: This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.2 million tons (previous value: 1.46 million tons), a week - on - week increase of 50.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The cumulative demand was 86.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%. The weekly consumption of rebar was 2.2 million tons, and in East China was 750,000 tons. In the southwest, it was 360,000 tons, in South China was 330,000 tons, in North China was 150,000 tons, and in Central China was 190,000 tons. In the northeast, it was 140,000 tons, and in the northwest was 180,000 tons [6][80][82]. - **Building material trading volume**: The trading volume of building materials was 117,741 tons (previous value: 105,098 tons), and the trading volume of building materials in Shanghai was 12,100 tons (unchanged from last week) [72]. 3.3 Profit - The iron - water cost was 2,640 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was - 60 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was - 148 yuan/ton. The electric furnace profit was - 148 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton. The rebar blast furnace profit was - 60 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 38 yuan/ton [9][38]. 3.4 Inventory - The social inventory of rebar this week was 4.56 million tons (previous value: 4.67 million tons), a week - on - week decrease of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 50.9%. The factory inventory was 1.85 million tons (previous value: 1.92 million tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 33.3%. The total inventory was 6.41 million tons (previous value: 6.6 million tons), a week - on - week decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year increase of 45.4%. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.3 million tons (previous value: 1.28 million tons) [8][91][93]. 3.5 Period - Spot Market - **Basis**: The lowest warehouse - receipt basis was 25 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.8%. The 01 - contract basis was 20 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was - 33 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract basis was - 72 yuan/ton [10][19]. - **Spread**: The spread between rebar 01 and 05 was - 53 yuan/ton, between 05 and 10 was - 39 yuan/ton, and between 10 and 01 was 92 yuan/ton. The Beijing spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 230 yuan/ton (previous value: 280 yuan/ton), the Shanghai spread was 60 yuan/ton (previous value: 110 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou spread was - 10 yuan/ton (previous value: 10 yuan/ton). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 90 yuan/ton (previous value: 70 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was - 46 yuan/ton (previous value: - 38 yuan/ton). The Beijing premium for spiral rebar was 230 yuan/ton (previous value: 180 yuan/ton), the Shanghai premium was 140 yuan/ton (previous value: 130 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou premium was 160 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week) [21][24][27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current Fed's monetary policy is at the beginning of an easing cycle, and the most important factor - the new Fed chairperson has not been announced. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals. After a short - term price correction and stabilization, it will form a good buying opportunity. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 934 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 10937 - 12500 yuan/kilogram [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - **Weekly Market Review**: This week, gold and silver prices were strong. By the close of the Friday daytime session, Shanghai Gold rose 10.90% to 999.80 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 10.53% to 12249.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 5.76% to 4267.90 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 6.55% to 50.63 US dollars/ounce; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, and the US dollar index fell 0.27% to 98.56 [11]. - **Fed's Policy Shift**: Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Fed will soon end quantitative tightening (QT). The US small - bank loan risk event this week provides a reason for the Fed to end balance - sheet reduction and move towards expansion. The market has fully priced in a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at the Fed's meeting this month and expects a 93% probability of another 25 - basis - point cut in December [11]. - **Silver Spot Situation**: On October 17, the silver spot lease rate dropped from 25.8% to 15.9%. From October 1 to now, COMEX silver inventory has decreased by 663.3 tons to 15845 tons. Overseas silver spot shortages will continue to support silver prices [11]. 2. Market Review - **Price Performance**: Gold and silver prices were strong this week. Shanghai Gold rose 10.90%, Shanghai Silver rose 10.53%, COMEX gold rose 5.76%, and COMEX silver rose 6.55% [29]. - **Position Changes**: Shanghai Gold's total position decreased by 5.49% to 395,900 lots, and COMEX gold's total position as of the latest report period increased by 2.43% to 528,800 lots. Shanghai Silver's total position slightly increased by 0.14% to 837,600 lots, and COMEX silver's total position as of the latest report period increased by 1.75% to 165,800 lots [31][33]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of October 17, the total gold ETF holdings in the Reuters statistical scope were 2315.5 tons, and the total foreign silver ETF holdings were 28259.31 tons [39]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **US Treasury Yields**: Relevant graphs show the spreads between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds and short - term Treasury yields [48][49]. - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: Graphs display the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse - repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectations [51][52]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: The table shows the weekly changes in the Fed's balance sheet, including asset and liability sides [54]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI & PCE**: In August, the US CPI year - on - year was 2.9%, the seasonally adjusted CPI month - on - month was 0.4%. The un - seasonally adjusted core CPI year - on - year was 3.1%, and the seasonally adjusted core CPI month - on - month was 0.3% [65]. - **Employment**: Affected by the US government shutdown, the latest weekly US unemployment data is missing [68]. - **PMI & PPI**: In September, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50 [71]. - **New Housing Data**: In August, the annualized number of new housing sales in the US was 800,000, the annualized value of building permits was 1.33 million, and the annualized value of new housing starts was 1.307 million [74]. 5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The graph shows the spread between gold TD and SHFE gold [77]. - **Silver Basis**: The graph shows the spread between silver TD and SHFE silver [80]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: Graphs show the domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver [84][86]. 6. Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventory**: Graphs show the silver inventories of Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [90][93]. - **Gold Inventory**: Graphs show the gold inventories of COMEX and LBMA [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - level Sino - US trade conflict has resurfaced, which is unfavorable for cotton price increases. Fundamentally, the consumption demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season this year is weak, the operating rate of the downstream industrial chain has declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new domestic cotton season, resulting in high selling hedging pressure. Overall, the fundamental situation of Zhengzhou cotton is weak, and with the impact of macro - level negative factors, it is expected that the upward space for cotton prices in the short term is relatively limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In the overseas market, the price of US cotton futures fluctuated this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 64.29 cents per pound, up 0.52 cents per pound from the previous week, a rise of 0.82%. The spread between the December and March contracts of US cotton fluctuated, reported at - 1.5 cents per pound, up 0.23 cents per pound from the previous week. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated narrowly this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,335 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous week, a rise of 0.08%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,679 yuan per ton, down 78 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened, reported at 1,328 yuan per ton, down 96 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between the January and May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, reported at - 55 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: In the overseas market, due to the US government shutdown, USDA data continued to be suspended. In the domestic market, according to market news, on October 16, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 6.17 yuan per kilogram, up 0.02 yuan per kilogram from the previous week. Machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang started large - scale picking, and the purchase price of machine - picked cotton increased. According to the latest data released by Mysteel, as of the week of October 17, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, up 0.2% week - on - week, down 7.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and down 10.22 percentage points from the average of the past five years (75.82%) [9]. - **Viewpoint and Strategy**: As mentioned in the core view, the upward space for short - term cotton prices is limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, spreads between different months of Zhengzhou cotton, and spreads between different regions and different varieties in the international market, such as the US - Brazil spread, etc. These charts show the historical trends of various spreads from 2021 to 2025 [24][26][28]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Cotton Production**: The report shows the processing and inspection volume of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton through charts, reflecting the production situation of domestic cotton [38][39]. - **Import Volume**: Charts show the monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton, the import volume of US cotton to China, and the import volume of cotton yarn, reflecting the import situation of the domestic cotton market [40][41][45]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills are presented through charts, showing the operating conditions of the downstream industry [48][49]. - **Sales Progress**: The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are shown through charts, reflecting the sales situation of domestic cotton [50][51]. - **Inventory**: The weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton, the combined monthly inventory of commercial and industrial cotton, as well as the raw material and finished - product inventories of spinning mills are presented through charts, reflecting the inventory situation of the domestic cotton market [53][54][55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **US Situation**: The report shows the planting area without drought, the excellent - good rate, production, output, planting area, export signing progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio of US cotton through various charts, comprehensively reflecting the situation of the US cotton market [59][60][61]. - **Brazilian Situation**: Charts show the planting area, output, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton, reflecting the situation of the Brazilian cotton market [72][73][75]. - **Indian Situation**: The planting area, output, consumption, and import - export volume, as well as supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio of Indian cotton are presented through charts, showing the situation of the Indian cotton market [80][81][83].