1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market lacks drivers, and the market is in a stage of oscillating at the bottom. After the negative factors are exhausted and the market stabilizes, one can consider buying at low prices. The overall market is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [6][74]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the oil and fat market did not rise after the holiday but showed an oscillating downward trend. Palm oil and rapeseed oil had relatively large declines, while soybean oil was more resistant to decline. In the first and middle of October, affected by factors such as negative MPOB reports and the expectation of eased China - Canada relations, there was a lack of positive drivers. In the second half of October, more negative factors emerged, leading to a rapid decline [4][10]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - It is expected that after the Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate in October, it will gradually start to reduce slightly, but the inventory will still be at a relatively high level. The inventory of Indonesian palm oil remains low, but its fundamentals have weakened marginally. Currently, soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction and mainly follows the overall trend of the oil and fat market, with limited upward momentum but more resistance to decline. In the short term, due to insufficient domestic rapeseed supply, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, and there is support at the lower end of the range before there is substantial progress in rapeseed imports from Canada and Australia [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Short - term, the oil and fat market lacks drivers, and the market is in a stage of oscillating at the bottom. After the negative factors are exhausted and the market stabilizes, one can consider buying at low prices. - Arbitrage: P15 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the content in the preface summary, in October, the oil and fat market showed an oscillating downward trend, with palm oil and rapeseed oil having larger declines and soybean oil being more resistant to decline. Negative factors in the first and middle of October and more negative factors in the second half of the month led to the decline [10]. 3.2.2 High Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory and Higher - than - Expected Indonesian Production - Malaysian palm oil: In September, the ending inventory unexpectedly increased to 2.36 million tons, a 7% month - on - month increase. Production decreased slightly by 1% to 1.84 million tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Exports increased to 1.43 million tons as expected, still lower than the five - year average, and apparent consumption decreased to 330,000 tons, a 33% decline. It is estimated that in October, production may slightly increase to 1.87 million tons, and inventory may increase to around 2.45 million tons. The CPO spot price is oscillating weakly, and the export reference price for November has been lowered. After October, it will enter the traditional production - reduction season [13][14]. - Indonesian palm oil: In August, production decreased slightly by 1% to 5.55 million tons, a record high in the same period. Exports decreased but were still at a high level in the same period, and inventory decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons, still at a low level in the same period. The estimated production for this year has been raised to 56 - 57 million tons. The fruit bunch price has declined, the CPO tender price has stabilized and declined, and exports in September decreased significantly. The domestic biodiesel consumption from January to September increased by nearly 10% year - on - year, and the B50 policy is planned to be implemented in the middle of next year, but there are some implementation difficulties [28][29]. 3.2.3 End of Holiday Stocking and Slower Indian Procurement - Import: As of September, India's edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year totaled 13.98 million tons, a 4% year - on - year decrease. Palm oil imports decreased by about 14%, soybean oil imports reached a record high of 4.39 million tons, a 42% increase, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 20% on a high base but were still at a relatively high level in the same period. - Inventory: In September, India's port inventory continued to increase to 1.03 million tons, with palm oil inventory remaining stable, sunflower oil inventory decreasing, and soybean oil inventory increasing significantly. All three major oils' inventories were higher than the five - year average. - Price: The domestic edible oil price increase in India has slowed down but is still at a high level in the same period. Sunflower oil prices are rising, rapeseed oil prices are falling rapidly, and soybean and palm oil prices are stable at high levels. It is estimated that India will import more than 700,000 tons of palm oil in October, at a relatively low level in the same period, and soybean oil imports will remain at a relatively high level. It is expected that in the 25/26 fiscal year, India's edible oil imports will continue to increase to more than 17 million tons, with a significant increase in palm oil imports and relatively stable soybean oil imports [36][37]. 3.2.4 Weak Domestic Demand and High Oil and Fat Inventory - Palm oil: As of October 24, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 607,100 tons, a 5.45% increase from the previous week. Imports from January to September were at a relatively low level in the same period, and the import profit was in a state of inversion. It is estimated that the inventory will continue to increase. Consumption from January to September was also at a relatively low level in the same period, the basis was oscillating weakly, and the soybean - palm oil spot price difference is expected to continue to repair. The palm oil market is expected to be range - bound, currently in an oscillating bottom - grinding stage [43]. - Soybean crushing: In September, soybean imports reached a record high of 12.87 million tons, a 5% month - on - month increase, and soybean crushing was also at a high level. It is expected that imports in October and November will decrease to about 9 million tons. As of October 24, the commercial inventory of soybean oil increased by 2.15% from the previous week. The market expects that the inventory will gradually decrease slightly later, but the supply is expected to be relatively loose [44]. - Rapeseed crushing: In September, domestic rapeseed crushing was at a relatively low level in the same period, and the rapeseed inventory was almost exhausted. As of October 24, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was at a high level in the same period but was decreasing. The basis of rapeseed oil has risen rapidly. Due to insufficient domestic rapeseed supply and limited imports, the rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, and there is support at the lower end of the range [47]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - It is expected that after the Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate in October, it will gradually start to reduce slightly, but the inventory will still be at a relatively high level. The inventory of Indonesian palm oil is expected to remain low, but its fundamentals have weakened marginally. The domestic palm oil inventory will continue to increase, and the supply will be relatively loose. Soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction and mainly follows the overall trend of the oil and fat market. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline, and there is support at the lower end of the range. The overall oil and fat market is expected to be range - bound, currently in an oscillating bottom - grinding stage. After the negative factors are exhausted and the market stabilizes, one can consider buying at low prices and conducting range - bound operations [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil: Supported by feedstock demand in October, with stable high - sulfur cracking and spot premiums. In the future, pay attention to Russia's supply and export under strengthened sanctions and the issuance of crude oil quotas. Feedstock demand may be affected [4][5]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Faced with continuous supply pressure in October, with declining spot premiums and cracking. The ARDS device maintenance of Al - Zour refinery brings short - term supply gaps, while the RFCC device maintenance of Dangote refinery is expected to increase supply. Pay attention to refinery device returns and export volume changes [4][5]. - Strategy recommendation: Short - term unilateral trading should be on the sidelines; for arbitrage, short the FU1 - 5 spread on rebounds and go long on low - sulfur internal - external spreads at low levels; no option strategy is recommended [6][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil: Supported by feedstock demand from the US and China in October, with high - sulfur cracking fluctuating stably between - 4 and - 3 US dollars/barrel. Spot premiums oscillated at a medium - level. Supply from major regions increased slightly [4][10]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Suffered from continuous supply pressure in October, with spot premiums dropping by about 2.8 US dollars to - 2.6 US dollars/ton compared to the end of September. Cracking also declined by about 2.9 US dollars to 4.7 US dollars/barrel, at a low - level. There was no specific demand support [4][10]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - High - sulfur fuel oil: Pay attention to Russia's supply and export under strengthened sanctions, which are expected to be less affected. The expected issuance of crude oil quotas may impact feedstock demand [5]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The ARDS device maintenance of Al - Zour refinery brings short - term supply gaps, while the RFCC device maintenance of Dangote refinery is expected to increase supply. Pay attention to refinery device returns and export volume changes [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Short - term wait - and - see. - Arbitrage: Short the FU1 - 5 spread on rebounds. Go long on low - sulfur internal - external spreads at low levels. - Options: None [6] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil: Supported by feedstock demand, cracking was stable. Supply from major regions increased, including Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East. Spot premiums were at a medium - level [10]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply pressure continued, with declining spot premiums and cracking. Dangote and Malay local refineries' device maintenance increased supply in the Singapore region, and there was no specific demand support [10]. 3.2.2 High - Sulfur Supply - Russia: Facing continuous attacks on energy facilities and intensified sanctions from the US, UK, and EU. Pay attention to supply and logistics changes after sanctions. Before sanctions, raw material exports increased, and exports in October were relatively stable [15][17]. - Mexico: Tula refinery's coking device reduced fuel oil production. Olmeca refinery's high - sulfur production is expected to decrease gradually. High - sulfur exports in October recovered to about 500,000 tons [20]. - Middle East: High - sulfur exports increased slightly after the decline in power - generation demand. In October, daily exports were about 150,000 tons, up 2% from September [25]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Demand - Marine fuel demand: Stable support, with marginal growth from the increasing number of desulfurization tower ships. In September 2025, high - sulfur marine fuel consumption in Singapore and Fujeirah increased [34]. - Feedstock demand: Supported in the short - term by the crude oil quota gap in the fourth quarter. Pay attention to the re - issuance of crude oil quotas and the impact of sanctions. China's fuel oil imports increased in September [37][39]. - Power - generation demand: Completely subsided in Egypt and the Middle East [41]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - South Sudan: Due to the trade ban between the UAE and Sudan, low - sulfur export logistics changed, with crude oil diverted to the Singapore region. The external tender volume did not decrease significantly [44]. - Al - Zour refinery: Production decreased in October, and the restart of desulfurization devices may be delayed. Exports increased in October, and the 2026 maintenance plan was postponed [47]. - Dangote refinery: The gasoline device resumed production at a 60% operating rate in October. Two batches of low - sulfur straight - run products were tendered during the device shutdown. Exports decreased slightly in October [48]. - China: The fourth - quarter bonded low - sulfur production is expected to decline slightly. Sinopec and PetroChina have sufficient quotas, while CNOOC is short of quotas. Sanctions may affect the production of some refineries [49][51]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - High - sulfur fuel oil: Pay attention to supply logistics changes after sanctions. Exports from Mexico and the Middle East are stable. Feedstock demand is supported in the short - term [59]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Spot premiums are oscillating at a low level. The low - sulfur production of Al - Zour refinery is affected. EU sanctions have little impact on domestic supply. Nigerian RFCC devices are running at a low load, and South Sudan's low - sulfur raw material logistics are changing. Marine fuel demand is stable [59]. - Strategy recommendation: Short - term unilateral trading should be on the sidelines; for arbitrage, short the FU1 - 5 spread on rebounds and go long on low - sulfur internal - external spreads at low levels; no option strategy is recommended [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The marginal impact of the macro - environment on the steel industry is weakening, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate within a range [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 2.1 Fundamental Situation - **Price and Basis**: The report presents season - based price charts of Shanghai 20mm rebar and 4.75mm hot - rolled coil, as well as the basis season charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil 01 contracts in Shanghai [9][10][12]. - **Contract Spreads**: It includes the 01 - 05 contract spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and the spread between the main contracts of hot - rolled coil and rebar [14][15][16]. - **Profit**: The report shows the 01 - contract disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil [22]. - **Production**: Statistics on monthly pig iron and crude steel production, 247 steel mills' daily average hot - metal output, and the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnaces are provided [24][25][34]. - **Import and Export**: Data on steel and billet import quantities, steel and billet export quantities, and the export profits of Indian and Japanese hot - rolled coils are presented [36][59]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Information on the weekly apparent demand and total inventory of five major steel products, as well as the inventory of billets in the Tangshan area, is included [44][51]. 2.2 November Market Outlook - Although no specific outlook content is provided, the report is expected to analyze the market trend of the steel industry in November based on the previous fundamental data. 2.3 Macroeconomic and Downstream Industry Indicators - **Financial Indicators**: Data on new social financing scale, new RMB loans, and the loan demand index for infrastructure are presented [74][93]. - **Real Estate Indicators**: Information on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment, land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities, monthly year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales area, and new housing starts area is provided [76][81]. - **Infrastructure Indicators**: Data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure fixed - asset investment, monthly year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment, and cement direct - supply volume for infrastructure are presented [96][99]. - **Manufacturing Indicators**: Information on the performance of various sub - items of the PMI, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits, and monthly year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value is provided [105][108]. - **Downstream Industry Production**: Data on the monthly production of automobiles, civil steel ships, excavators, metal containers, refrigerators, and air conditioners are presented [119][125].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The previous undervaluation and macro - sentiment have boosted prices, but the supply - demand pressure has not been significantly alleviated. After the undervaluation situation is repaired, it can still be used as a short - side configuration within the sector [2][77] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Outlook - Supply: The alloy supply side has not started a production - cut trend, and the overall output remains in high - level fluctuations. Silicon manganese (187 enterprises) had a September output of 898,400 tons, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and an 18.8% year - on - year increase. Silicon iron (136 enterprises) had a September output of 488,200 tons, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 5.9% year - on - year increase [2][23] - Demand: The molten iron output is gradually decreasing. Due to the slow progress of steel inventory reduction, steel profits are continuously compressed. With the seasonal decline in steel demand in November and possible phased production restrictions on some regional steel mills, the demand side still has a downward risk [2][23][76] - Cost: Manganese ore prices are differentiated. Since the resumption of shipments in June, the import volume of Australian ore has increased significantly, causing the price of Australian lumps to decline continuously. However, the overall manganese ore port inventory is still at a low level in the same period, and the spot prices of Gabonese and South African ores are still relatively firm. The cost side has some support, but the upward driving force for prices is insufficient [2][56][77] - Market sentiment: The 14th Five - Year Plan Outline mentions carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and there are expectations of capacity reduction or production control in the ferroalloy industry. Sino - US trade negotiations have made important progress, reaching a basic consensus [2][77] Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: After the undervaluation situation is repaired, it can still be used as a short - side configuration within the sector [3] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [3] - Options: Sell straddle option combinations on rallies [3] Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In October, ferroalloy futures prices first declined and then rebounded. After the National Day holiday, steel inventory increased counter - seasonally, and the supply side remained at a high level, causing price declines. In mid - October, prices reached a low - valuation level, and with the decline in steel inventory and positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, prices rebounded [7] 2. Supply at High - level Fluctuations and Demand Slowly Declining - Supply: Silicon manganese production in September was 898,400 tons, with a slight decline expected in October. Silicon iron production in September was 488,200 tons, and it is expected to remain stable at a high level in October. On October 31, the national 136 independent silicon - iron enterprise sample start - up rate was 36.08%, and the daily average output was 113,200 tons. The 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprise sample start - up rate was 42.99%, and the daily average output was 207,700 tons [23] - Demand: Steel mill spot profits continued to decline, and molten iron output decreased slightly after mid - October. On October 31, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons compared to the previous period. It is expected that molten iron output will continue to decline in November [23] 3. Alloy Factory Inventory Oscillating Upward with a Significant Increase in Silicon Manganese Inventory - Alloy factory inventory: On October 31, the inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises was 71,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,400 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 314,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,500 tons [40] - Downstream inventory: Due to low steel profits, steel mills have the motivation to reduce raw material inventory. The available days of silicon iron and manganese silicon are stable with a slight decline, and it is expected to maintain a low - inventory state in November [40] 4. Manganese Ore Inventory at a Low Level and Australian Ore Prices Continuously Declining - Power coal and electricity prices: Port power coal prices were strong in October, and ferroalloy production area electricity prices fluctuated little, having no obvious impact on costs [52][56] - Manganese ore: The price of Australian lumps has declined continuously, with a cumulative decline of 1 yuan/ton degree in Tianjin Port in October. However, the overall manganese ore port inventory is at a low level in the same period, and the spot prices of Gabonese and South African ores are relatively firm. The cost side has some support, but the upward driving force for manganese silicon prices is insufficient [56]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, and non-ferrous metals. It assesses market trends, fundamental factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the current market situation [20][23][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: On Thursday, the stock index fluctuated again. In the morning, the market was strong, but in the afternoon, it dived and then oscillated downward. Due to investors' profit - taking and concerns about the technology stocks, the short - term stock index will fluctuate again and wait for re - pricing after the quarterly reports [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips without chasing high prices; Arbitrage: IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; Options: Bull spread on dips [22]. Treasury Futures - **Investment Logic**: On Thursday, most treasury futures closed higher. The central bank's net injection of short - term liquidity eased the market's funds. The long - end may catch up in price, and the market should be cautious about chasing the TS contract [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Try to go long on the TL contract on dips; Arbitrage: Pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [24]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Investment Logic**: Trade relations are improving, which benefits US soybeans. However, the international soybean supply is abundant, and the domestic soybean meal supply has improved, with pressure on prices. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Slowly build short positions in far - month contracts; Arbitrage: Try M35 reverse arbitrage; Options: Sell strangle strategy [28]. Sugar - **Investment Logic**: Internationally, the global sugar production is increasing, and the Brazilian sugar production is expected to be high. The ethanol's support for sugar has weakened, and the international sugar price is bearish. Domestically, the increase in sugar production may be less than expected, and the suspension of some imports may support the price in the short term [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The international sugar price is bearish, and the domestic market may be slightly stronger in the short term. Consider shorting on rallies; Arbitrage: Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar; Options: Wait and see [30]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Investment Logic**: High - frequency data shows that the production and export growth of Malaysian palm oil in October have declined, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly. Domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil is gradually de - stocking. The oil market is in a bottom - grinding stage [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider going long on dips; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [34]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Investment Logic**: The US corn futures have declined, and the US corn production is at a high level. The supply of Northeast Chinese corn has increased, and the price is weak. The North China corn price has stabilized and rebounded. The 01 contract of corn is expected to fluctuate weakly [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on the 12 - contract of US corn on dips, go long on the 01 - contract of Chinese corn lightly, and try to go long on the 05 and 07 - contracts of Chinese corn in the long - term; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [36]. Live Pigs - **Investment Logic**: The overall supply pressure of live pigs still exists, although the scale of enterprise slaughter has decreased, and the number of secondary fattening has increased, which has a certain supporting effect on the price. The pig price is expected to be under pressure [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider building a small number of short positions; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell strangle strategy [38]. Peanuts - **Investment Logic**: Peanut prices have stabilized. The supply of imported peanuts has decreased, and the prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable. The oil mills have not purchased in large quantities. The 01 - contract of peanuts is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Try to go long on the 01 and 05 - contracts of peanuts lightly; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [42]. Eggs - **Investment Logic**: The number of laying hens is still at a high level, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to be weak. Recently, the increase in the number of culled chickens and downstream replenishment have led to a slight rebound in the spot price. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider closing out previous short positions and wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [47]. Apples - **Investment Logic**: The quality of new - season apples is poor, the excellent fruit rate is low, and the cost of making warehouse receipts is high. The market is worried about the short shelf - life of cold - stored apples. The expected low storage volume may support the price, but the upward space is limited [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Consider closing out previous long positions and wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [51]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Investment Logic**: The cotton purchase is at its peak, and the purchase price is stable with a slight increase. The demand has not changed much. The improvement in Sino - US relations may support the Zhengzhou cotton price, which is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [55]. Black Metals Steel - **Investment Logic**: The night - trading steel price fluctuated weakly. This week, the steel production recovery accelerated, and the demand continued to recover, with an accelerated inventory reduction. However, there are still pressures from high plate inventory, slow capital release in the fourth quarter, and the fading macro - influence [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain range - bound fluctuations; Arbitrage: Consider going long on the hot - rolled coil and short on the rebar spread; Options: Wait and see [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Logic**: The current macro - sentiment is positive, and the coking coal fundamentals are good, but the steel demand is uncertain, which restricts the upward space of raw materials. It is expected to fluctuate in the near future, and it is recommended to wait for dips to go long [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait for dips to go long; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [61]. Iron Ore - **Investment Logic**: The iron ore price fell at night. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weakening domestically. The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure at a high level [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Bearish at a high level; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [64]. Ferroalloys - **Investment Logic**: The market sentiment has cooled down. The supply and demand pressures of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese still exist. They can continue to be used as short - side configurations in the sector [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Continue as short - side configurations; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Investment Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors in the precious metals market. The market is expected to enter a high - level shock adjustment period in the short term [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver cautiously; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [71]. Copper - **Investment Logic**: Macro - factors are not favorable, and the supply side of copper mines has more disturbances. The supply is relatively tight, and the consumption is weak. The copper price has a short - term correction [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The short - term copper price corrects slightly, pay attention to support and resistance levels, and go long on dips in the long term; Arbitrage: Hold cross - market cash - and - carry arbitrage and consider cross - period cash - and - carry arbitrage after domestic inventory decline; Options: Wait and see [74]. Alumina - **Investment Logic**: The supply and demand of alumina are still in significant surplus, but there are expectations of production cuts. The price rebounds slightly at a low level, but there are still pressures on the rebound amplitude [77]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The price will fluctuate at a low level; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [77]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Investment Logic**: The macro - situation is uncertain, but the Sino - US economic and trade consensus is positive. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption is resilient. The aluminum price is expected to rise after the market sentiment stabilizes [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The aluminum price is expected to rise after the market sentiment stabilizes; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Investment Logic**: The macro - expectations are volatile. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the demand is resilient, and the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots will maintain a strong shock [85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The aluminum alloy price will rise with the aluminum price; Arbitrage: Consider long AD and short AL arbitrage; Options: Wait and see [85]. Zinc - **Investment Logic**: The domestic zinc concentrate market is short of supply, and some smelters may reduce production in November. The consumption is expected to weaken, but the export window is open, which can relieve the supply - surplus situation [90]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold profitable long positions and pay attention to export volume and new smelter production; Arbitrage: Consider buying SHFE and selling LME in advance according to export conditions; Options: Wait and see [90]. Lead - **Investment Logic**: Some lead - storage enterprises have reduced production due to high lead prices and high downstream inventory. The supply of recycled lead may increase, and the lead price may decline [94]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see, and consider shorting if the production of recycled lead increases; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [94]. Nickel - **Investment Logic**: The supply and demand of nickel are loose, but there is cost support. The nickel price will maintain a range - bound operation [98]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wide - range shock; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell the 2512 - contract strangle combination [99]. Stainless Steel - **Investment Logic**: The supply and demand of stainless steel are weak, and it is difficult to obtain production profits. The social inventory has increased slightly [101]. - **No trading strategy content provided specifically for the logic above, but based on the general format, it should be summarized if available.**

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of continued positive policy and valuations reaching the 80%-90% percentile of the past decade, attention should be focused on the capital market and the prospects of the technology sector. The unilateral strategy is to go long at low levels, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the main contracts of IM/IC and short ETFs for cash-futures arbitrage [5][6][45] 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Second Part: Market Review in October 3.1.1 Stock Market - First Decline, Then Rise, and Reach a New High - In October, the A-share market first declined and then rose, with the stock index reaching a new high after oscillations. By October 29, the monthly increase of the CSI 300 Index was 2.3%, the SSE 50 Index rose 2.48%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.93%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.08% [10] - The oscillations in the stock index led to prominent performances in traditional industries. Sectors such as coal, insurance, telecommunications, public utilities, and oil and gas had significant increases, while sectors like media, automotive, healthcare, computer, real estate, and food declined. The technology sector showed differentiation, with high-level oscillations in concepts such as optical modules, domestic chips, advanced manufacturing processes, and humanoid robots [12] 3.1.2 Stock Index Futures - Periodic Expansion of Premium and Decline in Trading Volume and Open Interest - In October, the premium of stock index futures expanded periodically compared to the previous month. Especially after the listing of the 2606 contract, the premium of the quarterly contracts of IM, IC, and IF expanded significantly, while the premium of the current-month contracts slightly decreased overall, and the basis of each IH contract remained stable [16] - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined overall in October. The average daily trading volume of IM, IC, IF, and IH decreased by 14.4%, 4.1%, 12.6%, and 3.8% respectively; the average daily open interest of IM, IF, and IH decreased by 4.9%, 3%, and 3.8% respectively, while the average daily open interest of IC slightly increased by 0.4% [23] - The expansion of the premium increased the rollover cost for short positions in stock index futures. The optimal choice for short positions in IM and IC to roll over to the next-month contracts had the lowest cost, with the average monthly annualized costs being 9.55% and 8.12% respectively, increasing by 0.82 and 0.59 percentage points compared to the previous month. The optimal choice for short positions in IF and IH to roll over to the next quarterly contracts had the lowest cost, with the average monthly annualized costs being 2.52% and 0.16% respectively, increasing by 0.32 and 0.23 percentage points compared to the previous month [27] - From the perspective of the open interest of major seats, the open interest of each variety remained stable overall, but the net short positions in IC increased significantly. The average monthly net short positions of the top five and top ten seats in IC increased by 2.1 and 2.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month. In addition, at the end of September, facing the National Day holiday, the short positions in IF significantly increased before the holiday and then quickly decreased after the holiday, indicating the hedging operations of investors using stock index futures [29] 3.2 Third Part: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy 3.2.1 What's Different About Reaching 4000 Points Again - On October 28, the Shanghai Composite Index stood above the 4000-point mark again after a decade, which was the third time since May 9, 2007, and April 8, 2015. Compared with the previous two times, this round of market has both similarities and some obvious differences [34] - In 2007, the first time the Shanghai Composite Index reached 4000 points was in the middle and later stages of the 2005 - 2007 bull market, driven by the split-share structure reform policy. Corporate profits improved in line with the macroeconomy, leading to a comprehensive bull market [34] - In 2015, the second time the Shanghai Composite Index reached 4000 points was in the later stage of the 2013 - 2015 bull market. Due to the quantitative easing policy implemented by the US at the end of 2012 and multiple reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in China, the liquidity in both China and the US was loose, and the margin trading in A-shares was active, resulting in a structural market driven by industrial upgrading [34] - Currently, the macroeconomy still faces significant uncertainties, but the artificial intelligence industry chain has experienced explosive growth. The ETF market has expanded significantly, and the absolute value of margin trading balance has continuously reached new highs. The proportion of margin trading is still far lower than that in 2015, and the market is generally stable. The policy is still to "fully consolidate the stable and improving trend of the market," and the development prospects of emerging industries are still broad. Therefore, this round of market is more similar to that in 2015, and the capital market and the prospects of the artificial intelligence industry will determine the height of the market [35] 3.2.2 The Third Quarter Reports to Test the Bull Market - As of October 31, 5437 companies announced their performance, and the overall third-quarter reports of listed companies showed an increase, adding confidence to the bull market. The total operating income of all A-shares reached 53.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.21%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 4.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.34%, breaking away from the downward trend of the previous two quarters [40] - It should be noted that the 11.31% increase in the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent company in the third quarter reports is related to the low base in the third quarter of last year (-15%), which is consistent with the continuous monthly increase of over 20% in the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size from August to September. With the PMI remaining below the boom-bust line for six consecutive months and the order backlog index remaining at around 45%, the full-year performance still needs continuous tracking and observation [42] - For the performance growth of industry sectors that A-share investors are more concerned about, there have been some changes. Since April, the artificial intelligence wave has led to a significant increase in the performance of the semiconductor industry chain, forming a "Davis double-click" and stimulating market sentiment. However, among the three leading companies in the optical module (CPO) sector, the single-quarter operating income of two companies decreased quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, and the net profit attributable to the parent company hardly increased quarter-on-quarter. Affected by this, the stock prices of relevant companies fell sharply, the sector declined, and the stock index was also affected. If the performance of the NVIDIA industry chain continues to fall short of expectations, attention should be paid to the progress of the domestic chip industry chain and the performance implementation of the robot industry [43] 3.2.3 Future Strategies - Based on the above analysis, in the context of continued positive policy and valuations reaching the 80%-90% percentile of the past decade, attention should be focused on the capital market and the prospects of the technology sector. Under the premise that the above factors remain unchanged, the unilateral strategy is to go long at low levels. Stock index futures investors should pay attention to the year-end convergence rule of the premium of IM/IC/IF, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the main contracts of IM/IC and short ETFs for cash-futures arbitrage [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The rubber sector has sufficient supply and strong expectations for consumption growth. The state of ample natural rubber supply and strong consumption growth expectations continues compared to the September report. On the supply side, Thai rubber prices are resilient but show a widening year - on - year decline, and the cup - to - cup price difference indicates sufficient supply. On the consumption side, global auto sales and domestic tire production show marginal increases. In terms of expectations, key macro data is strengthening [5][6]. - In October, synthetic rubber was extremely weak, and the BR - RU spread widened. The capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber increased, and the cumulative production in the past 12 months also increased, indicating sufficient supply [7]. - The fundamentals of the rubber sector are relatively strong [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Supply Global Data - Climate - Analyzed the ENSO index and its impact on RU unilateral, including ENSO index, its indexation for RU unilateral, and the influence on RU spot and futures prices. Also studied the impact of El Niño and Southern Oscillation on the spreads of smoke - sheet - RU and BR - RU [17][25][37]. Global Data - Commodity Valuation - Studied the relationship between crude oil, gold prices and rubber prices, including the impact of the prices of crude oil, Brent crude oil, and gold on RU unilateral, BR - RU spread, and smoke - sheet - RU spread [45]. 2. Micro Supply Global Data - Absolute Price - Presented the absolute prices of basic rubber raw materials in Thailand, Malaysia, Yunnan, and Hainan, including the latest, last - month, and last - year prices, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year changes [65]. Overseas Data - **ANRPC Rubber Alliance Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the total production and total export volume of ANRPC natural rubber and their impacts on the BR - RU spread [68][72]. - **Thai Natural Rubber Industry**: Studied various aspects such as rainfall, glue and cup - rubber prices, the spread between smoke - sheet rubber and standard rubber, the inventory and shipment of rubber products, and the export of smoke - sheet rubber, and their impacts on RU unilateral, smoke - sheet - RU spread, and BR - RU spread [78][93][110][120]. - **Vietnamese Natural Rubber Industry**: Analyzed the natural rubber production in Vietnam and its impact on the 3L - RU spread [130]. Domestic Data - Not detailed in the summary part of the given content, but includes aspects such as China's rubber imports, production, apparent consumption, domestic glue products, and the supply of butadiene and butadiene rubber [29]. 3. Trade Circulation Global Data - Analyzed the balance sheets of the six major rubber - producing countries in Southeast Asia [45]. Overseas Data - Studied international trade, Japanese rubber inventory, Malaysian natural rubber retail inventory, Southeast Asian standard rubber processing profit, and overseas rubber and plastic machinery [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of eggs is under pressure, and November is a relatively off - season in the second half of the year. Considering the current spot price has fallen to a historical low, the short - term egg price is likely to remain at the current level. If the active culling of laying hens continues, the future supply pressure may ease, and the price may strengthen. - In the futures market, the near - term contracts are expected to continue to be weak without significant improvement, while the pre - Spring Festival contracts of the far - term may rebound if the culling of hens remains high [5][39][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the spot price of eggs was weak. The average price in the main producing areas dropped to around 2.7 yuan/jin, and then rebounded slightly after restocking. In the main selling areas, it dropped to around 2.97 yuan/jin and then rebounded to around 3.09 yuan/jin. - In November, the egg futures contracts were also weak. The supply of laying hens in production remained high, and the demand was average after the double festivals, resulting in weak egg prices. The November contract dropped to around 2748 at the lowest [4]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The supply side is still under pressure, and November is a relatively off - season. Given the current low spot price, the short - term egg price is likely to stay at the current level. If the active culling of laying hens continues, the supply pressure may ease, and the price may strengthen. - In the futures market, the near - term contracts are expected to be weak, while the far - term pre - Spring Festival contracts may rebound if the culling of hens remains high [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For single - side trading, considering the weak oscillation of near - term contracts, shorting on rallies can be considered. - For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In October, the spot price of eggs rebounded. The average price in the main producing areas reached around 2.91 yuan/jin and showed signs of stabilization, while in the main selling areas, it reached around 3.14 yuan/jin and then stabilized. - The October egg futures contracts were strong. Although the peak demand season was average, the significant increase in the spot price led to a rise in the futures price. However, due to the high inventory of laying hens in production, the increase in the futures price was limited [10]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - **Supply Side** - In September, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. Without considering delayed or concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens in production from October 2025 to January 2026 is approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively. - In October, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 39.33% (low - middle level in the same period over the years), medium - sized eggs was 44.1% (medium level), and small - sized eggs was 16.57% (high - middle level). - The egg - laying rate in October changed little, remaining at a low level in the same period over the years, currently about 91.78%. It is expected to gradually increase as the weather gets colder. - In September, the monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises (accounting for about 50% of the national total) was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year decrease. The current weekly market price of laying hen chicks in the Chinese market is 2.73 yuan per chick, a decrease of 0.16 yuan per chick from the previous month. - Due to the weak egg price and average peak - season demand, the culling enthusiasm increased, and the culling volume rose. From October 24th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas was 20.02 million, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in that week was 499 days, the same as the previous week [11][12][14]. - **Demand Side** - In October, the demand was average, and the seasonal peak was weaker than in previous years. Although the recent demand has rebounded, it is still at a low - middle level in the same period over the years. As of October 25th, the weekly egg sales volume in the national representative selling areas was 7498 tons, a 1.6% increase from the previous week. - From January to September 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 36.5877 trillion yuan, a 4.5% year - on - year increase. In September, the absolute value of catering revenue was 450.9 billion yuan, a 0.9% year - on - year increase [21]. - **Inventory** - As of October 17th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, the same as the previous week [21]. - **Cost and Breeding Profit** - The current feed cost has changed little and is expected to remain stable in the short term. In October, the corn price was 2242 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal price dropped to 2984 yuan/ton. The current comprehensive feed cost is about 2464 yuan/ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.71 yuan/jin for one jin of eggs. - As of October 23rd, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.22 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 24th, the expected profit of laying hen breeding was - 0.51 yuan per hen, a decrease of 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week [28]. - **Substitutes** - The vegetable price index continued to rise. On October 26th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 108.23. Although the vegetable price has increased significantly recently, it is at a relatively medium level in the same period over the years. - The pork price fluctuated this month with little overall change. As of October 26th, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 15.17 yuan/kg. The low vegetable price has a weak substitution demand for eggs, and the current low - level fluctuating pork price has a relatively limited substitution demand for eggs [34]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The supply side is expected to be under pressure in November as the inventory of laying hens in production remains high. The demand in November is in the off - season, and the market performance is average. Considering the current low spot price, the short - term egg price is likely to remain at the current level. - Due to the previous low egg price and market losses, the culling enthusiasm of laying hens has increased. If the active culling continues, the future supply pressure may ease, and the price may strengthen. - In the futures market, the near - term contracts are expected to be weak without significant improvement, while the pre - Spring Festival contracts of the far - term may rebound if the culling of hens remains high [39][40].

Group 1: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 107.18, down 0.43 from the previous trading day; the average wholesale price of 6 fruits was 7.21, up 0.01 [2] - Among futures prices, AP01 was 9268, up 70 from the previous night; AP05 was 9664, down 20; AP10 was 8453, down 57 [2] Group 2: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 147,900 tons, a decrease of 60,200 tons from the previous week [5] - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 532,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%. In August 2025, the import volume was 11,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 98,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [5] - The apple market in the producing areas remained stable yesterday. In Shandong, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants was good, mainly trading in general goods. In the northwest producing areas, the acquisition was in the middle - late stage, and the proportion of unharvested goods was small, with cold - storage warehousing continuing [6] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [7] - The mainstream transaction prices of apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi and Qixia, Shandong were stable. In Luochuan, the mainstream price of semi - commercial 70 and above apples was 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty. In Qixia, the price of new - season paper - bag Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade apples was 3.5 - 5.0 yuan per catty [8] Trading Logic - The high - quality fruit rate of new - season apples is poor this year due to weather. The apple quality is low, the fruit diameter is small, and the proportion of water cracks and mold diseases has increased. The high - quality fruit rate is poor, resulting in a low apple warehouse - receipt production rate and high warehouse - receipt costs [9] - The poor apple quality makes it difficult to preserve, and the market is worried that cold - storage apples cannot be preserved until the far - month delivery. The apple storage volume may be lower than expected, and the high - quality effective inventory may be even lower [9] - Recently, the apple price has shown a strong trend, but considering the large increase and high current price, the upward space may be relatively limited [11] Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended that previous long positions take profits and wait and see [12] - For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [13][14] Group 3: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract main - force basis, and the price difference between different AP contracts, etc. [16][17][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - side acquisition progress of cotton has entered a peak, with acquisition prices basically stable and slightly rising recently, around 6.2 yuan/kg. The demand - side shows little change. Considering the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [6]. - For the cotton market, it is expected that the future trend of US cotton will likely be volatile, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger volatile trend. For the cotton trading strategy, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [7][8][9]. - In the cotton yarn industry, the trading volume of the pure cotton yarn market is average, with prices remaining stable. Some manufacturers plan to reduce prices to sell goods. Order demand is generally weak, but there are re - order situations due to Double 11, and high - count yarn orders for export are good. The price of all - cotton grey cloth is stable with a slight downward trend, and the inventory of manufacturers is accumulating [9]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: It shows the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts such as CF01, CF05, CY01, etc. For example, the closing price of CF01 contract is 13,600, with a decrease of 20, and the trading volume is 211,342 hands [2]. - **Spot Market**: Lists the prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn spot products, such as the price of CCIndex3128B is 14,843 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13 yuan/ton, and the price of CY IndexC32S is 20,475 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [2]. - **Price Spreads**: Includes cotton inter - period spreads, cotton yarn inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and internal - external price spreads. For example, the 1 - month to 5 - month cotton inter - period spread is - 10, with a decrease of 5 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: - The Xinjiang cotton road transportation price index on October 30, 2025, was 0.1803 yuan/ton·km, remaining unchanged from the previous period. It is expected to show an overall fluctuating upward trend in the short term [4]. - On October 29, 2025, the machine - picked cotton acquisition index in Xinjiang was 6.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day, and the hand - picked cotton acquisition index was 7.05 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged [4]. - In September 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the peak season, with both import volume and value increasing significantly compared to the previous month. The import value was 372.276 billion yen (equivalent to 2.524 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 7.52% and a month - on - month increase of 13.12%. The import volume was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.13% and a month - on - month increase of 21.91% [5]. - The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% counter - tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly, and both sides agree to extend some tariff exclusion measures [5][6]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply - side acquisition progress is at a peak, and acquisition prices are stable with a slight increase. The demand - side changes little. Considering the Sino - US economic and trade consultation results, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will likely be volatile, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly stronger volatile trend [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]. - Options: Wait and see [9]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: - The night - session of Zhengzhou cotton rose yesterday. The trading volume of the pure cotton yarn market is average, with prices remaining stable. Some manufacturers plan to reduce prices to sell goods. Overall order demand is weak, but there are re - order situations due to Double 11, and high - count yarn orders for export are good. The price of Xinjiang - produced high - grade compact - spun C32S is 21,600 - 21,800 yuan/ton [9]. - The price of all - cotton grey cloth is stable with a slight downward trend. Due to weak downstream demand, downstream customers make small - scale purchases. The sales of medium - and high - count grey cloth are not as expected, and the inventory of manufacturers is accumulating [9]. Third Part: Options - **Option Data**: Lists the option contract names, underlying contract prices, closing prices, price changes, implied volatility (IV), and other data of cotton options on October 28, 2025, such as the closing price of CF601C13400.CZC is 240, with a decrease of 10.4% [11]. - **Volatility Judgment**: On October 28, 2025, the 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 is 7.5%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 is 10%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 is 13.5% [11]. - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [13]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - It includes multiple charts such as the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, etc., which visually show the price trends and relationships of cotton and cotton yarn [15][16][17] [18][19][21][22][23][24][26].