1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamentals and liquidity situation still support the bond market. The central bank's sudden restart of Treasury bond trading has set a temporary ceiling on yields and boosted market sentiment. However, considering the structural highlights in the domestic economy and the improved inflation expectations, the room for continuous decline in yields should be viewed rationally. Before the expectation of interest rate cuts rises, short - end yields may face constraints from capital prices, and factors such as the pending new regulations on bond fund redemption fees may suppress bond market sentiment. The bond market is unlikely to have a trending market, but ultra - long bonds may offer opportunities for price rebounds, and holding some long positions in bond futures for hedging purposes is also necessary [4][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In October, the sentiment in the bond market recovered. By the end of the month, the central bank's announcement of restarting Treasury bond trading further boosted market sentiment. As of the mid - day on October 31, the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL increased by 0.16%, 0.36%, 0.69%, and 2.22% respectively within the month. Driven by favorable factors, the valuation of bond futures increased. As of the close on October 30, the IRR of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL were approximately 1.9288%, 1.7475%, 1.6851%, and 1.5231% respectively [3]. 3.2 Market Logic梳理 3.2.1 Economic Data Remains Differentiated, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" Defines the Development Direction - The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the second quarter, basically in line with market expectations. The cumulative GDP growth rate in the first three quarters was 5.2% year - on - year, meaning that the economy only needs to grow by 4.5% in the fourth quarter to achieve the annual target. In September, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and industrial added value increased by 6.5% year - on - year. However, domestic demand indicators improved limitedly. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.0% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. High - frequency data was also differentiated. The sales of new and second - hand houses were weak, but the sales of some durable goods such as passenger cars showed certain resilience. The market focused on the Fourth Plenary Session communique and the "15th Five - Year Plan" at home and the development of the new round of Sino - US trade disputes abroad [9][10][18]. 3.2.2 Price Indicators Remain Low, but Inflation Expectations Have Improved - The GDP deflator in the third quarter was - 1.07%, still in the negative range. In September, CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, mainly dragged down by food prices. PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. However, due to the high base of industrial product prices starting from October last year, the year - on - year decline of PPI may widen again. Under the combined effect of policies and market expectations, the GDP deflator may turn positive at least temporarily, which suppresses the performance of the bond market, especially long - term bonds [28][30][41]. 3.2.3 The Growth Rate of Social Financing Continues to Slow Down, and the Inflection Point of M1 Growth Rate Has Not Arrived - In September, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 300 billion yuan. Social financing increased by 3533.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan. The growth rate of M2 was 8.4% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, while the growth rate of M1 was 7.2% year - on - year, a 1.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. High - frequency data shows that credit supply in October may be mediocre, and the continuous rise of M1 growth rate is not favorable for the bond market [42][43][56]. 3.2.4 The Capital Market Is Stable and Loose, and the Central Bank Restarts Treasury Bond Trading - In October, the capital market was generally balanced and loose, but there was a seasonal tightening at the end of the month. The central bank increased reverse repurchase and MLF operations to release long - term liquidity. The central bank's governor announced the restart of Treasury bond trading in the open market, which boosted market expectations. The restart of Treasury bond trading is a part of the "moderately loose" monetary policy, reducing policy risks in the bond market. The scale and term of the central bank's bond - buying operations need attention [57][64][72]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The bond market is still supported by the current fundamentals and capital market conditions, but it is difficult to have a trending market. It is recommended to moderately participate in the game of price rebounds in ultra - long bonds and hold some long positions in bond futures for hedging. In terms of arbitrage, it is advisable to short the 30Y - 7Y term spread, short the current - next quarter inter - period spread, and pay attention to the potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of the TS contract [74][75][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The long - term upward logic of copper remains unchanged despite the transformation of new and old driving forces. Although the supply is tight and the traditional consumption growth rate has declined, the growth of new consumption areas such as energy storage batteries, new energy vehicles, and future AI will offset the negative impact of the decline in traditional consumption [2][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Copper Market Overview 3.1.1 Market Review In October, copper prices entered an accelerated upward phase, with the lowest price on October 10 reaching $10,374 per ton for LME copper or 82,630 yuan per ton for SHFE copper, and the highest reaching the historical high pressure level of $11,094 per ton for LME copper or 88,700 yuan per ton for SHFE copper. Macroscopically, the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff statement had limited impact. Fundamentally, the tightness of copper mines intensified, and domestic production declined. Consumption was weak, and downstream acceptance of high prices was low [5][11][12]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook In terms of supply, the incremental supply of copper mines is expected to be 50,000 tons, lower than 2024. The overall supply of copper mines is more tense, and the global refined copper production is expected to increase by 950,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 3.53%. The consumption growth rate is expected to drop to 3.4%. In terms of price, the long - term loose monetary policy in the US is positive, and the support level is 85,000 - 86,000 yuan per ton, with a short - term pressure level of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan per ton [13][14]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation Unilateral: Adopt the idea of buying on dips, with a support level of 85,000 - 86,000 yuan per ton and a short - term pressure level of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan per ton. Arbitrage: If the export window opens, exit the positive spread temporarily and re - enter later. Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Sino - US Relations Eased, and the Expectation of Fed Rate Cuts Strengthened On October 10, Trump's tariff statement had limited impact, and Sino - US relations later eased. On October 29, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the probability of a December rate cut dropped. The US employment data was weak, and the CPI was relatively stable. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly, but consumer growth was weak [23]. 3.3 Copper Mine Disturbances Increased, and the Tight Supply Situation was Difficult to Alleviate 3.3.1 Sharp Drop in the Incremental Supply of Copper Concentrates In 2025, the global incremental supply of copper concentrates is expected to be about 50,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 0.22%. The supply - side disturbances increased, and the processing fee is likely to be less than or equal to $0 per ton. Some major mining companies reduced their production plans, while the import volume of copper concentrates in China increased [34][35][36]. 3.3.2 Decline in the Start - up of Recycling Processing Enterprises, and the Tight Supply of Scrap Copper was Temporarily Alleviated The global supply of scrap copper did not decrease, but the trade flow changed. The import volume of scrap copper in China was relatively stable, but the growth rate was lower than last year. The tax - refund policy affected the start - up of recycling copper rod enterprises. The import volume of anode copper decreased, while the import volume of scrap copper ingots increased [44][45][47]. 3.3.3 Accelerated Transmission of Raw Material Supply Shortage to the Smelting End The global refined copper production is expected to increase by 950,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 3.53%. Overseas smelters cut production, and domestic production also declined due to factors such as maintenance and anode plate shortage. The import of refined copper in China increased in September, but the inflow speed may slow down [50][51][53]. 3.4 Consumption Analysis 3.4.1 Obvious Decline in the Growth Rate of Traditional Consumption - **Real Estate Market**: From January to September, the sales area and completion area of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year. The consumption of electrolytic copper was still dragged down. It is estimated that the copper consumption will decrease by 123,700 tons to 1,113,700 tons [61][62]. - **Power Grid and Power Projects**: From January to September, the investment in the power grid increased by 9.9% year - on - year, and the investment in power projects increased by 0.6%. High copper prices inhibited the procurement of downstream enterprises, and the export of copper cables may decline in October [67][68]. - **Home Appliances**: The production schedule of household air - conditioners in November decreased significantly year - on - year. It is expected that the annual consumption growth rate of air - conditioners will drop to 5%, and the copper consumption of white goods will increase from 2,168,300 tons to 2,267,800 tons [78][81]. 3.4.2 Resilience of Automobile Consumption - **Domestic Automobile Consumption**: In September, domestic automobile production and sales increased significantly. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased by 35.2% and 34.9% respectively. The sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be driven by the policy of resuming the purchase tax in 2026 [86][88]. - **New Energy Vehicle Consumption in Europe and the US**: From January to August, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 23.46% year - on - year. In the US and Europe, new energy vehicle sales also showed growth trends. It is estimated that the global new energy vehicle copper consumption will increase from 1,220,800 tons in 2024 to 1,401,100 tons in 2025 [95][96]. 3.4.3 Unexpected Growth of Wind and Solar Power Generation - **Photovoltaic Installation**: From January to September, China's new photovoltaic installation capacity increased by 49.34% year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association raised the annual new installation capacity forecast. It is estimated that the global new photovoltaic installation capacity will reach 630GW in 2025 [104][108]. - **Wind Power Installation**: From January to September, China's new wind power installation capacity increased by 56.16% year - on - year. It is predicted that China's new wind power installation will reach 105 - 115GW in 2025, and the global new wind power installation capacity will increase to 138GW [119]. 3.4.4 Explosive Growth of Lithium - Ion Copper Foil In 2024, the global copper foil production capacity was 2,544,000 tons. From January to September 2025, China's lithium - ion copper foil production was 624,300 tons, with a year - on - year growth of 38%. If calculated according to a 35% consumption growth rate, the annual production will reach 853,800 tons, driving domestic consumption by 1.38% [126]. 3.4.5 Consumption Summary It is expected that the global consumption growth rate will drop to 3.4%. Overseas demand remains stable, while domestic demand weakens marginally. Processing enterprises and downstream raw material inventories are low, and there will be restocking demand if prices decline [131]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet In 2025, the growth of copper mines is expected to be 50,000 tons, and the refined copper production will increase by 950,000 tons. The consumption growth rate will drop to 3.4%. The supply gap of copper concentrates is expected to expand to 680,000 tons, and the refined copper is expected to have a surplus of 376,000 tons, mainly in the US. Domestically, the consumption growth rate is expected to decline from October to December [135][136].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's sensitivity to the policy - led "anti - involution" in the glass and soda ash industries has declined marginally, and the market is observing the implementation strength. There is intensified competition between the bulls and bears regarding the weak reality and strong expectations. The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to first fall and then rise in November, with a slight downward shift in the price range [2][5]. - In the medium - to - long - term, under the background of global liquidity easing and clear anti - involution policies, the structural market will continue. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the accumulation of industrial contradiction risks due to the lack of improvement in the fundamentals [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the futures price of the main soda ash contract first fell and then rose. The overseas situation and domestic macro - data affected the market sentiment. The price range moved down. In terms of spreads, the SA2601 - 05 spread showed a positive arbitrage trend, and the FG01 - SA01 spread showed a downward trend. The spot prices of soda ash manufacturers were generally stable, with some regional price adjustments [8]. 3.1.2 "Anti - involution" Policy Impact - The market's sensitivity to the "anti - involution" policy has declined, and it is observing the implementation strength. Overseas, the risk appetite has decreased significantly after the Sino - US talks. The competition between the bulls and bears on the weak reality and strong expectations has intensified [12]. 3.1.3 Production and Inventory - In October, the monthly soda ash production was about 3.342 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. From January to October, the national soda ash production was about 31.592 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 670,000 tons, or 2.2%. After the holiday in October, the inventory pressure increased, and the inventory of manufacturers increased by about 1.02 million tons to 1.702 million tons [2][19]. 3.1.4 Demand - The daily melting volume of float glass was stable at 161,000 tons. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 100 tons to 88,680 tons. The overall demand for photovoltaic glass was weak, and the new orders were limited. The demand for light soda ash showed a natural growth trend, with an average monthly apparent demand of about 1.75 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year increase of 1% [2][26][31]. 3.1.5 Export and Import - Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the soda ash export has increased, and it is expected to maintain a monthly average of over 160,000 tons in 2025. In September 2025, the export volume was 188,000 tons. The import volume was almost zero [37]. 3.1.6 Raw Material Prices and Costs - The price of动力煤 increased, the ammonium chloride market was stable at a low level, and the coke market price was strong. The theoretical profit of the soda ash joint - alkali method (double - ton) was - 165 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton [41][43]. 3.2 Glass Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Market Review - In October, the futures price of the main glass contract FG2601 first fell and then rose, leading the decline in the commodity market. The price fluctuation range widened, and the operating range moved down significantly. The spot prices of glass manufacturers decreased after the holiday [50]. 3.2.2 Supply - As of the end of the month, the daily melting volume of float glass was 161,000 tons, unchanged from the beginning of the month. One production line was restarted and ignited in October, and there was no cold - repair of production lines. The supply of glass was basically stable, and the future coal - to - gas conversion in the glass factories in Shahe was still uncertain [52]. 3.2.3 Demand - In October, the glass market was weak in the peak season. The consumption of float glass decreased, and the supply - demand gap turned positive. The downstream processing enterprises' orders were not as good as those in September, and the payment collection was poor. The high inventory in the industry was difficult to digest, which would still suppress the price [61]. 3.2.4 Real Estate Situation - In 2025, the real estate completion was still under pressure. The new construction scale continued to decline, and the completion scale also showed a downward trend, although the cumulative year - on - year decline narrowed [65]. 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - The cost of float glass decreased. The price of petroleum coke increased, and the price of soda ash first fell and then rose. The weekly average profits of float glass with different fuels all decreased [68][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate widely, and the range has remained intact for three months. The macro - atmosphere in the fourth quarter is expected to be strong, but there is no direct boost to the downstream demand for nickel. The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the MHP price provides cost support. The supply - demand of refined nickel is loose, and it is expected to continue the wide - range fluctuation trend in the third quarter [3][4][9]. - The global refined nickel inventory is increasing, and the deliverable products are abundant. The downstream consumption of refined nickel has little expansion, and the consumption growth rate is limited [12][28]. - The production of stainless steel remains at a high level, which supports the demand for primary nickel. However, the price of stainless steel is inverted to the cost, and the production schedule may be more conservative in November. The demand for stainless steel is lackluster, showing the characteristics of "not prosperous in the peak season and not weak in the off - season" [35][49][60]. - The strong demand for ternary materials has led to a tight supply - demand of nickel sulfate, and the price has risen. The new energy vehicle market shows structural growth, with both domestic and overseas markets having certain characteristics [75][90][102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Trend**: In October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate widely, and the range has remained intact for three months. Policy factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US economic and trade consultations have increased market risk appetite, but there is no direct boost to the downstream demand for nickel [3][9]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: From September to October, there was no peak - season feature, and the off - season consumption was expected to be flat. The supply of pure nickel remained high, competing with nickel sulfate for MHP raw materials. The MHP price was firm, providing cost support for pure nickel. The supply - demand of pure nickel changed little, and the inventory increased slowly [3][9]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Refined Nickel Inventory and Supply - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the global visible inventory reached 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons (an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the end of last month and 89,000 tons compared with the beginning of the year), and SMM's six - region social inventory at 49,000 tons (an increase of 7,900 tons compared with the end of last month and 7,600 tons compared with the beginning of the year) [12]. - **Supply**: The "PTENICO" brand nickel plate applied for LME delivery, and the total annual production capacity of Chinese - funded electrowon nickel brands applied for registration on the LME reached 221,600 tons. From January to September, LME nickel warrants increased by 74,000 tons [16]. SMM statistics show that China's refined nickel production from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 300,000 tons. It is expected that the domestic refined nickel output in October will remain at a high level of 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons month - on - month [25]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel and Nickel Demand - **Raw Material Price and Supply**: In October, the price of Indonesian nickel ore was relatively stable. The production of Indonesian nickel ore is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is also difficult to fall sharply. The Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore port inventory has decreased. The nickel - iron plants and mines are in a deep game [35]. - **Production and Demand**: From January to September, the combined nickel - iron production of China and Indonesia was 1.598 million nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 21%. The production of stainless steel is expected to be more conservative in November due to cost inversion. The demand for stainless steel lacks highlights, and the social inventory has increased after the National Day [41][49][60]. 3.2.3 Ternary Demand and Nickel Sulfate Price - **Nickel Sulfate Price**: In the third quarter, the orders for ternary materials were unexpectedly strong, and the supply - demand of nickel sulfate was tight. The MHP price was firm, providing cost support for electrowon nickel and nickel sulfate [75]. - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In the domestic market, from January to September, the sales of new energy vehicles were 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The sales of new energy heavy - duty trucks increased by 183% year - on - year to 138,700 vehicles. In the overseas market, from January to August 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 27.4% year - on - year to 234,700 vehicles, and in the US by 8.1% year - on - year to 106,300 vehicles [90][102]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Future Outlook**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates once in December, Sino - US tariffs may be lowered, and the geopolitical situation will ease. The macro - atmosphere in the fourth quarter is strong. The downstream consumption of nickel is expected to be flat. The supply of refined nickel is loose, and it is expected to continue the wide - range fluctuation trend in November [4][113]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuation [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina prices are under pressure due to supply - demand surplus, with potential production cuts in November. If production cuts occur, prices may rebound; otherwise, they will remain under pressure. Overall, the price trend is to sell on rebounds next year [3][99] - The shortage of global electrolytic aluminum is more prominent overseas. Macro - and micro - factors will drive the upward trend of aluminum prices to continue. In November, domestic demand may support prices, and the import loss of aluminum ingots is expected to narrow [4][103] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Preface Summary - **Alumina**: Due to supply - demand surplus, prices are falling. The November spot long - term settlement price may approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity, leading to potential production cuts. If production cuts reduce the surplus, prices may rebound to around 3000 yuan/ton; otherwise, they will be under pressure. Next year, new projects will be put into production, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The global shortage is mainly overseas. With overseas production cuts and improving domestic demand, aluminum prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (alumina oscillating between 2800 - 3000 yuan, aluminum oscillating strongly between 21000 - 21800 yuan), arbitrage (long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum), and option trading (wait - and - see) [4] 2. Alumina Low - price Pressure on Cash Cost and November Supply - side Production Cut Expectations - **Raw Material End**: Domestic bauxite supply is tight, with stable prices but few transactions. Imported bauxite prices are theoretically under pressure, but spot transactions are scarce. The price of Guinea bauxite is around 72 - 73 dollars/dry ton. In September 2025, China imported 1588 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 37.5% [7][10][11] - **Alumina Price and Production**: As of late October, the national alumina production capacity was 11462 million tons, and the operating capacity was 9765 million tons. In October, the domestic alumina supply - demand surplus was 33 million tons (considering downstream inventory) or 17 million tons (based on social inventory). The average full cost of alumina in September was 2863 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 179 yuan/ton. In November, pay attention to production cuts due to high - cost capacity approaching cash cost and the impact of heavy - pollution weather [22][23][36] - **Import and Export**: In September 2025, China exported 24.6 million tons of alumina (a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 82.3%) and imported 6 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 61.7%). The net export was 18.6 million tons [31] 3. Macro - and Micro - Factors Driving the Rise of Aluminum Prices - **Macro Factors**: In October, the overseas macro - market sentiment was first depressed and then improved. The expected further reaching of tariff agreements between the US and other countries and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation will support LME aluminum prices, but the US government shutdown may bring uncertainty [41][46] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - side Changes**: - **Overseas**: There are both increases and decreases in overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity. Some projects are in the process of being put into production, while some factories have reduced production due to accidents or power - supply issues. For example, the Icelandic electrolytic aluminum plant reduced production by about 21 million tons, and the Mozambique plant may reduce production by 37 million tons in March 2026 [51][52] - **Domestic**: As of late October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4523.2 million tons, and the operating capacity was 4441.4 million tons. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and capacity replacement is ongoing. In September, the average full cost of electrolytic aluminum was 15977 yuan/ton. In September, the import of aluminum ingots was 24.68 million tons, and the export was 2.9 million tons [61][62][63] - **Inventory and Consumption**: - **Domestic**: At the end of October, the total social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods was 91.13 million tons. It is expected that the inventory will decline in November - December, and low inventory will support prices. The export profit of aluminum products is increasing, and consumption is expected to be resilient [66] - **Overseas**: The LME inventory is stable, and the spot is mostly at a premium. The global shortage of aluminum is more prominent overseas, and low inventory supports LME aluminum prices [69] - **Domestic Terminal Consumption**: - **New Energy Demand**: The production of photovoltaic modules is still relatively low year - on - year, with limited impact on aluminum demand. The use of aluminum in transportation is expected to increase year - on - year, and the use of aluminum in the power sector is also growing. The State Grid's investment in 2025 will exceed 650 billion yuan, and the sample capacity of domestic aluminum rods has increased [73][76][79] - **Traditional Industries**: The demand for aluminum in the real - estate industry is still weak, and the production of household appliances in November is expected to decline year - on - year. In September, the export of aluminum products was 87.01 million tons, and the impact of tariffs on international trade is gradually weakening [81][91][94] 4. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Alumina**: Low prices are pressuring high - cost capacity. In November, there are expectations of production cuts. Next year, new projects will be put into production, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds. The cost in November can refer to that in September - October [99] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macro - and micro - factors will drive the rise of aluminum prices. Overseas supply shortages will support prices, and domestic demand is resilient. In November, the import loss of aluminum ingots is expected to narrow, and the export of aluminum products is expected to increase [103]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The terminal demand continues to decline, and the iron ore price should be treated bearishly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Market Data Review - The report presents multiple charts including the 62% Platts iron ore price, PB powder price, price spreads between different iron ore products, steel mill cash profit and price spreads of high - medium - low grade ores, and basis and spreads of different contracts [9][11][14]. 3.2 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Import volume charts show the import quantities of iron ore from different countries and regions such as Australia, Brazil, and India, as well as the global shipping volume of major iron ore producers like VALE, Rio Tinto, BHP, and FMG [23][29]. - A table shows the incremental global seaborne iron ore supply (shipment basis) from 2020 to 2026E. Some companies are expected to increase their supply, while others may see a decrease. For example, FMG's supply is expected to increase by 5 million tons in 2025 compared to 2024, while India's supply is expected to decrease by 6 million tons [42]. - Domestic refined powder production charts display the production in different regions of China, including North China, Northeast China, and East China [47][49]. Demand - Charts related to downstream demand include real estate new construction area, infrastructure investment growth rate (excluding electricity), domestic manufacturing inventory cycle, manufacturing investment sub - items, 247 steel mill hot metal production, domestic steel demand, overseas iron ore consumption, and global iron ore consumption [59][63][73]. - Inventory charts show the total inventory of imported iron ore at ports, trade ore, and the total iron element inventory in the entire industrial chain [83][85]. 3.3 Iron Ore Market Outlook No specific content about the outlook is provided in the text other than the overall bearish view on iron ore prices due to declining terminal demand.

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the pulp market had a pattern of strong supply and weak demand for softwood pulp, with high inventory and slow de - stocking suppressing the rebound. The double - offset paper was in the off - season, and it was difficult to implement price increases. The pulp market's "structural increment" was still concentrated in hardwood pulp [4][5]. - For the pulp market in November, the upper limit was suppressed by high inventory and old warehouse receipts, while the lower limit was supported by the foreign market quotation and the price increase of white cardboard. For double - offset paper, prices were expected to continue to hover at low levels, and inventory reduction still relied on paper mills' active production cuts [5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Paper Pulp Market Review - In October, the domestic spot pulp price showed a pattern of "differentiated oscillations, weak softwood and stable hardwood". Softwood pulp led the decline due to high port inventory, weak demand, and financial market pressure. Hardwood pulp rose slightly supported by foreign market price increases and tight immediate supply. Unbleached pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed sideways movements, and domestic chemimechanical pulp rose rapidly in the second half of the month due to wood chip shortages, while non - wood pulp fluctuated slightly with wood pulp [10]. - The pulp futures 01 contract in October showed a "first - down - then - up" oscillating trend. Influenced by factors such as factory shutdowns, paper mill price increases, and exchange rate changes, the closing price at the end of the month increased by about 1.5% compared to the beginning of the month, and the daily average amplitude of the main contract was about 1.2% [15][17]. 2. Paper Pulp Supply - **Import**: In September, China's paper pulp imports reached 295.2 million tons, a historical peak for the same period. The forecast for October arrivals remained at around 3 million tons. It was expected that the annual imports would exceed 36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [21]. - **Domestic Production**: In October, domestic paper pulp production was 2.38 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.4%. It was expected that the annual production would reach 25.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 4% [21][22]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, the sample inventory of mainstream ports was 2.055 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. If the November imports decreased as expected, the inventory was expected to continue to decline slightly, but it was difficult to fall below the critical level of 1.9 million tons [23][24]. 3. Paper Pulp Demand - **Cultural Paper**: In October, the apparent consumption of cultural paper decreased, and the demand for pulp continued to decline. It was expected that the annual pulp consumption would decrease by about 5% [27]. - **Packaging Paper**: In October, the consumption of hardwood pulp in packaging paper increased rapidly. It was expected that the annual pulp consumption would increase by 8 - 10% [27][28][29]. - **Household Paper**: In October, household paper maintained high - level production and sales. It was expected that the annual pulp consumption would increase by about 6% [30][31]. 4. Cultural Paper Market Review - **Double - Offset Paper**: In October, the average market price of double - offset paper was 4,643 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. In November, there was still a risk of price decline [32]. - **Coated Paper**: In October, the average price of coated paper was 4,975 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. In November, prices were expected to continue to hover at low levels [32][34]. 5. Cultural Paper Price Analysis - **Production**: In October, the production of double - offset paper was 890,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 52.3%. The production of coated paper was 353,000 tons, with a utilization rate of 58.8%. In November, the planned production of both was expected to increase slightly [36][37]. - **Inventory**: At the end of October, the enterprise inventory of double - offset paper was 1.341 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.3%. The inventory of coated paper was 371,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%. If the price increase letters were not implemented in November, the inventory would continue to rise [38]. - **Profit**: In October, the losses of double - offset paper and coated paper expanded. In November, although paper mills issued price increase letters, it was difficult to reverse the loss situation [39]. - **Cost**: In October, the cost of wood pulp and energy increased, squeezing the profit space of paper mills. In November, there was still upward pressure on costs [40]. - **Import and Export**: In September, the imports and exports of double - offset paper and coated paper decreased. In October, the export volume was expected to remain low [40][41]. - **Downstream Demand**: In October, the demand for cultural paper was weak. In November, the spring textbook tender volume was expected to decline, and the demand was difficult to provide upward momentum [42]. 6. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Paper Pulp Fundamental Analysis**: In November, attention should be paid to the port de - stocking speed. If the inventory fell below 1.9 million tons, the basis would converge, and the futures price would rise; otherwise, the near - low - far - high reverse spread would be maintained [46]. - **Paper Pulp Futures Strategy**: For single - side trading, short the SP2511 contract on rallies and long the SP2601 contract on dips. For arbitrage, mainly use the 12 - 1 reverse spread idea. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [47][49]. - **Double - Offset Paper Fundamental Analysis**: In November, the supply and demand of double - offset paper remained loose, prices were expected to continue to hover at low levels, and inventory reduction relied on paper mills' active production cuts [50]. - **Double - Offset Paper Strategy**: For single - side trading, short the OP2601 contract on rallies. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [51][54].

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 | 市场回顾 | 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | 第三部分 | 基本面情况 | 4 | | | 一、需求保持平稳 | 4 | | | 二、供应增长有限 | 10 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 15 | 有色板块研发报告 碳酸锂 11 月报 2025 年 10 月 31 日 去库与否取决于供应 锂价冲高回落 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 十一长假后的第一周，市场抱持观望态度，锂价延续了 9 月以来的窄幅 震荡格局。但十月中旬之后，即使产量小幅增加，库存却出现快速下降，同 时仓单也大幅注销，市场快速认同了需求的旺盛。叠加供应扰动消息及商品 氛围整体回暖，碳酸锂增仓向上突破，月末主力合约涨至 83480 元/吨高点。 指数持仓自最低 67 万手增至 86 万手，距离 7、8 月高点的 91 万手仅余 4 万手，而主力合约持仓已经创出新高。大幅增仓下价格涨幅偏低，反映市场 分歧巨大。 【市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the log market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory de - stocking slow and the fundamentals remaining loose. The LG2601 contract is currently undervalued relative to cost, but its valuation repair is restricted by the weak supply - demand pattern, with limited upside potential [5][6][39] - The report recommends three investment strategies: for single - side trading, go long on LG2601 at lows based on the October price floor, and if inventory accumulates significantly again, go short in small quantities; for arbitrage, focus on the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage; for options, sell LG2501 - C - 800 [7][40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the log supply side maintained an "external increase and internal accumulation" pattern. New Zealand's September shipment was 1.766 million cubic meters (+6%), and the first four - week departure in October was 1.34 million cubic meters, still 8% higher year - on - year. The full - month estimate was 1.75 - 1.8 million cubic meters, a new high for the year. The inventory of 13 domestic ports first increased and then decreased, reaching 2.94 million cubic meters at the end of the month, 22% higher year - on - year. The demand side was generally "lackluster in the peak season." The average daily port delivery was 61,600 cubic meters, a slight 1.4% month - on - month decrease and 11% year - on - year decrease. The real estate capital availability rate hovered at 59.6%, and the cumulative new housing starts were - 21%. The United States imposed a 10% - 25% tariff on softwood and cabinets starting from October 14, causing export orders in the Yangtze River Delta to decline [5] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The LG2601 contract is currently undervalued relative to cost, with the futures price significantly lower than the Shandong warehouse receipt cost and also in an inverted relationship with the duty - paid cost calculated from the November New Zealand radiata pine CFR quote. However, the valuation repair is restricted by the fundamentals, as port inventory remains high, supply pressure may continue to be released in November, and the demand side is lackluster in the peak season, with the average daily delivery volume declining year - on - year [6] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Single - side: Go long on LG2601 at lows based on the October price floor, and if inventory accumulates significantly again, go short in small quantities. Arbitrage: Focus on the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage. Options: Sell LG2501 - C - 800 [7] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Radiata pine: The log market was "warm externally and cold internally," with prices showing a trend of "initially stable and then secretly decreasing." The domestic and imported radiata pine prices moved basically in sync, while the sawn timber prices declined continuously due to weak terminal demand. The cost of imports increased, leading to a sharp drop in domestic ship - booking willingness and a 40% month - on - month decrease in new orders at the end of October [11][12] - Spruce/fir: In October, the spruce - fir market was characterized by "external price concessions, rising spot prices, and stable sawn timber prices." The European suppliers lowered their quotes, but the depreciation of the RMB against the euro offset most of the decline. The spot prices rose due to the shortage of large - diameter timber at ports, and the sawn timber prices remained stable, with processing profits being better than those of radiata pine [13][16] 3.2.2 Futures Market Review - As of October 31, 2025, the main log futures contract LG2601 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with a significant downward shift in the price center compared to the beginning of the month. It was mainly influenced by the reversal of policy expectations, the weak supply - demand pattern, and market sentiment changes [20] 3.2.3 Supply Increase and High Inventory - Overseas shipment: The New Zealand log departure volume remained high in October, but the growth rate slowed down marginally. The export was mainly targeted at China, accounting for over 75%, and the shipping cost fluctuations also affected the shipment rhythm [25] - Domestic arrival: The New Zealand log arrival volume in October showed a "low - then - high" pulsed rhythm. The total arrival volume in October was expected to reach 1.75 - 1.8 million cubic meters, a 20% increase from September, a new high for the year. The mismatch between high arrival and weak demand intensified the port inventory pressure [26] - Inventory change: The domestic log inventory in October showed a trend of "first accumulating and then decreasing," with the end - of - month total still higher than that at the end of September. Although there was marginal de - stocking in the middle and late October, the total inventory was still over 20% higher than the previous year, and the regional structure imbalance was still prominent [29] 3.2.4 Weak Real Estate, Low Delivery, and Weak Demand - Real estate demand: In October, the commercial housing transaction area declined month - on - month, and the new housing start - up willingness of real estate enterprises remained at a low level. The capital availability rate of construction sites was low, and the wood square orders decreased by about 15% year - on - year. The real estate demand for logs was basically flat month - on - month and decreased by 20% year - on - year, with limited seasonal recovery before the end of the year [33] - Log delivery volume: The port delivery volume showed a trend of "rising first and then falling." The average daily delivery volume in October was 61,600 cubic meters, lower than the September average and 11% lower year - on - year. The "high arrival + low delivery" situation continued, and the port de - stocking speed was much slower than in previous years [35] - Other demand and policy changes: The demand for furniture and packaging materials both weakened. The United States imposed tariffs on cabinets and softwood logs, causing a 20% - 30% decline in export orders in the Yangtze River Delta. The domestic "trade - in" subsidy had a concentrated release in September, and the furniture retail sales increased year - on - year but had limited incremental demand for logs. Policy factors such as US tariffs and EU anti - dumping measures suppressed external demand, while domestic fiscal support for forest tending was beneficial for long - term supply but had no short - term demand increase [36] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The log supply side maintained an "external increase and internal accumulation" pattern in October, and the demand side was "lackluster in the peak season." The supply - demand imbalance led to slow inventory de - stocking. The LG2601 contract is undervalued relative to cost, but the weak supply - demand pattern restricts its upside potential. The recommended strategies are the same as those in the preface summary [39][40]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the marginal weakening of asphalt supply and demand and raw material risks jointly affected prices. In the first half of October, the sharp decline in oil prices under macro - risks significantly affected the cost of asphalt negatively. The demand weakened month - on - month at the end of the peak season, while supply remained high, increasing the inventory pressure in the industry chain and pressuring the spot price. In the second half of October, oil prices were strong, and the news of potential US actions against Venezuela affected asphalt costs, but the supply - demand situation continued to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the spot price stopped falling but lacked continuous upward momentum. In the future, oil prices will fluctuate, and there is no further positive support for the cost side in the short term. The supply - demand situation will gradually weaken quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter, and the spot price lacks continuous upward momentum. The supply side will remain high due to previous high profits, and the inventory pressure in the industry chain is expected to materialize in November. The short - term spot price will be weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5][40] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Preface and Overview - **Market Review**: In October, the marginal weakening of asphalt supply and demand and raw material risks affected prices. In the first half, macro - risks led to a sharp decline in oil prices, negatively affecting asphalt costs. Demand weakened month - on - month at the end of the peak season, supply remained high, and inventory pressure increased, pressuring the spot price. In the second half, oil prices were strong, and the news of potential US actions against Venezuela affected asphalt costs. The supply - demand situation continued to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the spot price stopped falling but lacked continuous upward momentum [4] - **Market Outlook**: Oil prices will fluctuate, and there is no further positive support for the cost side in the short term. The supply - demand situation will gradually weaken quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter, and the spot price lacks continuous upward momentum. The supply side will remain high due to previous high profits, and the inventory pressure in the industry chain is expected to materialize in November. The short - term spot price will be weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options on the BU2601 contract [6] 2. Fundamental Situation - **Market Review**: Similar to the preface, in October, the marginal weakening of asphalt supply and demand and raw material risks affected prices. In the first half, macro - risks led to a sharp decline in oil prices, negatively affecting asphalt costs. Demand weakened month - on - month at the end of the peak season, supply remained high, and inventory pressure increased, pressuring the spot price. In the second half, oil prices were strong, and the news of potential US actions against Venezuela affected asphalt costs. The supply - demand situation continued to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the spot price stopped falling but lacked continuous upward momentum [11] - **Supply Overview**: From January to September 2025, China's asphalt production was 20.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.26 million tons or 12%. In September, the domestic refinery asphalt production was 2.79 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.8 million tons. From January to August 2025, asphalt imports were 2.375 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.203 million tons (- 7.9%). In September, imports were 0.342 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.073 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.137 million tons. From January to September, imports were 2.717 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.066 million tons (- 2.4%) [15][16] - **Demand Overview**: In October 2025, domestic asphalt demand was weak. In the north, demand declined after a brief pre - holiday rush due to cooling and rain. In the south, demand was slow to release due to typhoons, rain, and capital constraints. Only a small amount of demand was supported in southern Xinjiang and parts of the southwest. Refinery shipments were at a low level, and terminal demand showed that the road modified asphalt start - up rate was slowly rising but still at a low level, while the waterproofing membrane start - up rate decreased to the lowest level [28] - **Inventory and Valuation**: In October 2025, domestic asphalt refinery inventories increased overall. Social inventories decreased overall, with a significant difference in the inventory consumption rhythm between the north and the south. The asphalt processing profit increased by about 25 yuan/ton compared to September, and the diluted asphalt premium decreased by 1.7 to - 8.2 US dollars/barrel. The basis in Shandong decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 171 yuan/ton, the basis in South China increased by 15 yuan/ton to 101 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China increased by 25 yuan/ton to 81 yuan/ton [30][33] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Future Outlook**: Oil prices will fluctuate, and there is no further positive support for the cost side in the short term. The supply - demand situation will gradually weaken quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter, and the spot price lacks continuous upward momentum. The supply side will remain high due to previous high profits, and the inventory pressure in the industry chain is expected to materialize in November. The short - term spot price will be weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options on the BU2601 contract [40]