Report Title - The report is titled "Natural Gas: Market Volatility Declines, Geopolitical Risks Remain" [1] Researcher Information - The researcher is Wu Xiaorong, with a futures practice certificate number of F03108405 and an investment consulting certificate number of Z0021537 [2] Report Structure - The report consists of three chapters: "Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies", "Fundamental Analysis", and "Core Data Tracking" [3] Fundamental Analysis LNG Market - Some data related to LNG: 103 LNG, 162 LNG, 91.7; 4370 GWh/ with a 21.2% change; 1710 GWh/ with an 8.2% change, 9932 GWh/ with a 2.0% change; power consumption data such as 439.7 TWH, 49.8 TWH, 149 TWh with an -18.8% change, 38.5%, 51.3%, 55.2% [11] US Market - The number of natural gas rigs is 1117, with an 8.9% change compared to the previous period and a 5.6% change year - on - year; the number of rigs increased by 3 to 125; some consumption and production data: 1315 / with a 9.0% change, 394 / with a 30.7% change, 293 / with a 52.1% change, 519 / with a 15.2% change; 187 with a 27.1% change and 23.5% change [13] Core Data Tracking Price and Spread - TTF - HH spread, international natural gas prices (JKM first - line, TFU first - line, HH first - line), HH month - spread (HH M1 - M2, HH M1 - M6, HH M1 - M12), TTF month - spread (TTF M1 - M2, TTF M1 - M6, TTF M1 - M12) are presented in graphical form [17] - HH, JKM, and TTF forward curves are shown [20] Supply and Demand in China - China's natural gas supply and demand, including supply volume and consumption volume, and China's LNG supply (domestic LNG supply and imported tanker LNG supply) are presented in graphical form [23] Inventory in China - China's inventory situation, including receiving station inventory level (in tons) and gas storage inventory level (in percentage), and China's LNG ex - factory price (China LNG ex - factory settlement price, North China LNG ex - factory settlement price, South China LNG ex - factory settlement price, East China LNG ex - factory settlement price) are presented in graphical form [26] European Market - Northwest European gas - coal conversion interval, European natural gas inventory, floating storage over 20 days volume, European LNG import volume, and European natural gas import (Norwegian exports to (European continent + UK), Russian three main lines, Russian exports to Bulgaria, North African pipeline gas, LNG imports, Azerbaijan to Italy) are presented in graphical form [29][32] US Market - US natural gas inventory, dry gas production, rig number (natural gas rigs and oil - gas rigs), liquefied export project flow, domestic consumption, power generation demand, industrial consumption, residential and commercial consumption are presented in graphical form [35][38] - US supply - demand balance sheet data: dry gas production is 1117.1 (compared to 1025.9 last week and 1057.7 last year, with an 8.9% and 5.6% change respectively); Canadian pipeline gas net import is 75.1 (compared to 87.3 last week and 62.0 last year, with a - 14.0% and 21.1% change respectively); domestic demand is 1314.7 (compared to 1445.4 last week and 1017.3 last year, with a - 9.0% and 29.2% change respectively); gas - electricity consumption is 393.6 (compared to 423.3 last week and 301.1 last year, with a - 7.0% and 30.7% change respectively); industrial consumption is 292.7 (compared to 317.0 last week and 192.4 last year, with a - 7.7% and 52.1% change respectively); residential and commercial consumption is 519.4 (compared to 595.6 last week and 429.1 last year, with a - 0.3% and 15.2% change respectively); pipeline loss and liquefaction plant demand is 109.1 (compared to 109.4 last week and 94.7 last year, with a - 0.3% and 15.2% change respectively); pipeline gas export to Mexico is 62.7 (compared to 63.1 last week and 64.4 last year, with a - 0.7% and - 2.7% change respectively); liquefied export project flow is 186.8 (compared to 146.9 last week and 151.2 last year, with a 27.1% and 23.5% change respectively) [40] Weather Forecast - ECMWF and GFS temperature and wind speed forecasts are presented in graphical form [43][46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, coking coal futures have fluctuated significantly due to news about Indonesian coal policies, with trading mainly driven by sentiment and funds. The substantial impact remains to be observed. The actual implementation of Indonesia's coal - related policies has been poor in recent years, and it is expected that the reduction of coal production this time will also be less effective in practice. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of Indonesian coal - related policies [4]. - Fundamentally, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream winter storage and replenishment are almost over. Next week, coal mines will enter the peak period of shutdown and holiday. Downstream transportation is mainly based on previous orders, and prices tend to be stable. The transaction of imported Mongolian coal at ports is also gradually cooling down. In the futures market, the weight of fundamentals has decreased, the trading main line is not clear, and it is expected that the fluctuations will still be large, but there are no trend - based opportunities [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Unilateral trading**: It is expected that the price will still fluctuate greatly, but there are no trend - based opportunities. It is recommended to focus on band trading, and cautious investors are advised to wait and see. In subsequent operations, one can continue to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices after a callback [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Wait and see [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Coking coal market**: - **Spot price**: This week, the spot prices of coking coal in the production areas have risen and fallen. The price of Mongolian coal has fluctuated greatly following the futures market. Downstream coking and steel enterprises have basically completed their winter storage and replenishment and have shifted to rigid - demand procurement. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market transactions are gradually cooling down, and prices are stabilizing [9]. - **Domestic supply**: This week, the production capacity utilization rate of coal mines has declined, and some coal mines have started to shut down for holidays. The production capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines is 86.67% (- 2.46%). As the Spring Festival approaches, next week will be the peak period for coal mines to shut down for holidays. The average holiday duration is 10.1 days, slightly less than last year [9]. - **Imported Mongolian coal**: This week, the daily average number of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has decreased by 215 compared to the previous week. It is expected that the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal will remain at a moderately high level next week, and the port inventory still faces certain pressure. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed during the Spring Festival in 2026, from the first to the fourth day of the first lunar month (February 17 - 20), and will also be closed on February 15 and February 22 (Sundays) [9]. - **Demand**: This week, the coke production has been basically stable. The total coke production is 110.38 (+ 0.53) tons. It is expected that the coke production will remain basically stable next week, with small fluctuations [9]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total coking coal inventory is 4385.1 (+ 67.1) tons. The inventory of coking coal mines, ports, and Mongolian coal ports has decreased slightly, while the inventory of downstream coking plants has increased [9]. - **Coke market**: - **Spot price**: The first round of coke price increase was implemented last week, and this week, the coke price has remained stable. Currently, the coke supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is difficult for the coke price to continue to rise. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable next week [10]. - **Supply**: This week, the coke production has been basically stable. The total coke production is 110.38 (+ 0.53) tons. It is expected that the coke production will remain basically stable next week, with small fluctuations [10]. - **Demand**: This week, the hot metal production has increased slightly. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills is 228.58 (+ 0.60) tons. It is expected that the hot metal production will remain basically stable in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and attention should be paid to the recovery speed of steel mills' hot metal production after the Spring Festival [10]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total coke inventory is 1042.8 (+ 17.2) tons. The inventory of coking enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports has increased [10]. - **Profit**: According to Steelhome data, the average profit per ton of coke nationwide is - 10 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi is 12 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 45 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia is - 47 yuan/ton, and in Hebei is 40 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Coking coal production**: This week, the verified production capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples is 86.7%, a decrease of 2.5% compared to the previous week. The daily average production of raw coal is 192.5 tons, a decrease of 5.3 tons compared to the previous week. The raw coal inventory is 546.9 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons compared to the previous week. The daily average production of clean coal is 75.5 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons compared to the previous week. The clean coal inventory is 264.7 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons compared to the previous week [13]. - **Imported Mongolian coal customs clearance**: The customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal at ports has fluctuated at a high level. During the Spring Festival, the ports will be closed for four days [15]. - **Hot metal production**: The hot metal production has been fluctuating at a low level. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of hot metal production after the Spring Festival [20]. - **Price data**: Includes domestic coking coal prices, imported coking coal prices, coke prices, coking coal basis, coke basis, coking coal monthly spreads, and coke monthly spreads, etc., which are presented in the form of charts [27][30][37] etc. - **Inventory data**: Includes coking coal inventory (coking coal mines, ports, coking enterprises, and steel mills), coke inventory (coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports), etc., which are presented in the form of charts [96][99][102] etc.

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Overall Changes Are Minimal, Cotton Prices Range-bound [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the cotton market has shown minimal changes, with cotton prices expected to range-bound. The international market anticipates weak and fluctuating trends in US cotton, while the domestic market has certain fundamental support but is also likely to experience range-bound movements in the short term [1][8][28] Summary of Each Section Part I: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Market**: The signing situation is average, and the US cotton is expected to trend weakly with fluctuations [8]. - **US Cotton Growth**: As of January 30, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton reached 2.9618 million tons, accounting for 97.7% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 6% slower year-on-year. The inspection progress is steadily advancing but slower compared to the same period last year. The weekly deliverable ratio has significantly rebounded, while the quarterly deliverable ratio remains flat [8]. - **US Cotton Sales**: As of the week of January 29, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 56,700 tons, a 23% weekly increase but a 5% decrease compared to the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 53,400 tons, a 9% weekly decrease but a 25% increase compared to the average of the previous four weeks [8]. - **CFTC**: As of January 30, the number of unsold contracts on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 4,319 to 10,116, a reduction of 100,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total number of unsold contracts in the 2025/26 season decreased by 3,672 to 34,040, equivalent to 770,000 tons, a reduction of 80,000 tons compared to the previous week [8]. - **Brazil**: As of January 31, the cotton planting in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 78.6% complete, an 18 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and 22.5 percentage points faster year - on - year, 3.3 percentage points faster than the average of the past three years [8]. - **Pakistan**: As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative new cotton market volume in Pakistan's 2025/26 season reached 859,000 tons, a 0.6% year - on - year increase. Textile mills' purchases increased, and the unsold inventory decreased due to the rebound in domestic yarn consumption [8]. - **Global**: According to the latest January global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the changes are minimal. The global cotton production in January was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the previous month. The total production in the US decreased by 80,000 tons to 3.03 million tons. The total consumption increased by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons. The ending inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 16.22 million tons [8]. Domestic Market Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: New cotton picking is mostly finished, and Xinjiang's ginning factories are in the final stage of processing. As of February 4, 2026, the cumulative public inspection of cotton was 7.340445 million tons, a 14.86% year - on - year increase. As of January 30, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.6487 million tons, a 49,400 - ton (0.87%) decrease from the previous week [28]. - **Demand Side**: The market sales are good, with the cumulative sales of lint cotton as of January 29 reaching 4.772 million tons, at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. As of February 5, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises was 60.5%, a 5.76% decrease from the previous week. The raw material inventory of textile enterprises has been slightly adjusted [28]. - **Comprehensive View**: The current market contradictions are not significant. Although the cotton sales progress is fast, considering the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term demand is expected to have minimal changes. The cotton price has certain fundamental support but is likely to range - bound in the short term [28] Futures Trading Strategy - **Trading Logic**: The current market contradictions are not significant. The previous expectation of a decrease in the new - season cotton planting area has been reflected in the market. The demand side is currently strong, but considering the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term demand is expected to change minimally. The cotton price has certain fundamental support but is likely to range - bound in the short term [40]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [41]. - **Unilateral Trading**: In the short term, US cotton is expected to trend weakly with fluctuations, while Zhengzhou cotton is likely to range - bound [42]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [42] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **Internal and External Price Difference**: Charts showing the internal and external cotton price difference and the price difference trend between September and January contracts are provided [45][46]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on national cotton commercial inventory, textile enterprises' industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory are presented [48]. - **Spot - Futures Basis**: Charts of the spot - futures basis of cotton, including the basis of different contract months, are provided [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily market conditions of various stock index futures, including IM, IF, IC, and IH, encompassing closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis points, and other data, along with the trading volume and open interest data of major seats for each contract [4][21][38][57] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IM Futures - **Daily Market Conditions**: The closing price of the CSI 1000 index was 8051.57 points, down 0.20%. The main contract, IM2603, fell 0.82% to close at 7990.8 points. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 242,655 lots, an increase of 9,983 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 406,035 lots, an increase of 5,487 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 60.77 points, a decrease of 32.49 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -6.46% [4][5] - **Major Seats**: The report details the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of the top 20 seats for IM2602, IM2603, and IM2606 contracts, along with their changes from the previous day [16][18][20] IF Futures - **Daily Market Conditions**: The closing price of the CSI 300 index was 4643.60 points, down 0.57%. The main contract, IF2603, fell 0.63% to close at 4637.6 points. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 118,040 lots, an increase of 2,144 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 294,016 lots, a decrease of 3,193 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 6 points, a decrease of 0.78 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -1.1% [21][22] - **Major Seats**: The report provides the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of the top 20 seats for IF2602, IF2603, and IF2606 contracts, along with their changes from the previous day [33][35][36] IC Futures - **Daily Market Conditions**: The closing price of the CSI 500 index was 8146.41 points, unchanged. The main contract, IC2603, fell 0.24% to close at 8117.4 points. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 199,101 lots, an increase of 30 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 318,642 lots, a decrease of 7,208 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 29.01 points, a decrease of 3.1 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -3.03% [38][39] - **Major Seats**: The report shows the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of the top 20 seats for IC2602, IC2603, and IC2606 contracts, along with their changes from the previous day [51][53][55] IH Futures - **Daily Market Conditions**: The closing price of the SSE 50 index was 3037.86 points, down 0.69%. The main contract, IH2603, fell 0.8% to close at 3036.2 points. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 55,696 lots, an increase of 1,337 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 109,117 lots, an increase of 441 lots from the previous day. The main contract was at a discount of 1.66 points, a decrease of 4.05 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -0.46% [57][58] - **Major Seats**: The report lists the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of the top 20 seats for IH2602, IH2603, and IH2606 contracts, along with their changes from the previous day [70][72][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market is currently in a state of "strong supply and weak demand" as the Spring Festival stocking nears its end. Egg prices are expected to continue falling before the Spring Festival, and it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract [5][16][17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.45 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.53 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.72 yuan per catty from last Friday. Egg prices are expected to continue falling before the Spring Festival [5] - The price of old hens has been weakly adjusted after falling from a high. The market demand support is average, and the supply - demand of the old hen market is relatively stable [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - According to Zhuochuang data, the weekly egg - chicken culling volume in the main producing areas of the country from February 6th was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of February 6th was 495 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [10] - In January, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a 5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The monthly output of egg - chicken chicks from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in January was 43.22 million, a 9% month - on - month increase and little change year - on - year [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of February 5th, the corn price was around 2,368 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3,176 yuan per ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,610 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 2.87 yuan per catty of eggs [13] - The feed price fluctuated little this week, and the cost per catty of eggs was flat month - on - month. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs decreased. As of January 15th, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.52 yuan, a decrease of 0.14 yuan per catty from the previous week. On February 6th, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 12.65 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.37 yuan per catty from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - As the festival stocking nears the end, the market starts risk control in advance. The sales in markets such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Dongguan have slowed down significantly, and the price is under pressure. The sales in the selling areas have decreased month - on - month. As of February 6th, the weekly egg sales in the national representative selling areas were 7,304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [16] - After the festival stocking ended, egg prices entered a rapid decline cycle, and egg inventories showed a "rapid inventory accumulation" trend. The inventory days in the production and circulation links increased month - on - month for many consecutive days. As of the week of January 23rd, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.26 days, with little change from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.45 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week [16] - This week, the vegetable price index rebounded slightly. On February 4th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 132. The pork price also rebounded slightly. As of January 31st, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.67 yuan per kilogram, with little change from the previous week [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategies - Trading logic: As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stocking is basically coming to an end. The market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract [17] - Single - side: Consider shorting the June contract [17] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [17] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Egg - Chicken Farming Situation - No specific data or analysis content provided in the text 3.2.2 Spread and Basis - The text provides the basis and spread data from 2018 - 2025 for different contract months (January, May, September), including 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, 9 - 1 spread, etc., but no specific analysis is made [24][25]

苹果周报：出库速度较快 果价有支撑 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 第一部分 逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 137/137/137 246/206/207 ◼ 交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 需求分析 苹果现货分析 栖霞一二级纸袋80#（元/斤） 洛川半商品纸袋70#（元/斤） 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1-1 1-14 1-27 2-9 2-22 3-7 3-20 4-2 4-15 4-28 5-11 5-24 6-6 6-19 7-2 7-15 7-28 8-10 8-23 9-5 9-18 10-1 10-14 10-27 11-9 11-22 12-5 12-18 12-31 栖霞一、二级纸袋80# 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of steel have weakened marginally. Currently, the five major steel products are reducing production, but hot metal production is still increasing. Steel mills are entering the holiday shutdown and maintenance mode. Steel inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, with rebar inventory accumulating faster than hot - rolled coil, and the overall social inventory pressure is greater than that of the mill inventory. The demand for building materials has declined rapidly due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has also decreased due to factors such as a decline in export licenses and the end of the restocking phase in overseas manufacturing. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate following macro - economic sentiment before the holiday. However, the high steel inventory, potential lower - than - expected post - holiday capital expenditure, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the increase in hot metal production this year and put pressure on raw materials [7]. - The trading strategies suggest that the steel market will maintain a weak and volatile trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the ratio of hot - rolled coil to coking coal. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Chapters Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 191.68 tons (a decrease of 8.15 tons), and that of hot - rolled coil was 309.16 tons (a decrease of 0.05 tons). The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (an increase of 0.6 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 16.9% (a decrease of 15.8%). The cost of electric arc furnaces has increased, leading to a decline in profits and a significant drop in capacity utilization. Long - process steel mills are still profitable, but the enthusiasm for increasing production is limited [4]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 147.64 tons (a decrease of 28.76 tons), and that for hot - rolled coil was 305.54 tons (a decrease of 5.87 tons). The demand for building materials has decreased due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns. The demand for hot - rolled coils has also declined as overseas manufacturing enters the off - season. The investment in domestic fixed assets has a lack of incremental projects, and the real estate market is still in a downward trend. The manufacturing PMI in January showed a decline, and the production and sales data of some industries such as automobiles and white goods also showed different trends [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 44.04 tons (4.52 tons in mill inventory and 39.52 tons in social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.62 tons (1.50 tons in mill inventory and 2.12 tons in social inventory), and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 59.24 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that steel prices will maintain a volatile trend following macro - economic sentiment before the holiday. However, the high inventory, potential lower - than - expected post - holiday capital expenditure, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the increase in hot metal production this year and put pressure on raw materials. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of coal mines, hot metal production, downstream demand performance, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The steel market will maintain a weak and volatile trend. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the ratio of hot - rolled coil to coking coal. For options, wait and see [9]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3220 yuan (a decrease of 30 yuan), and in Beijing was 3130 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan). The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3250 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan), and in Tianjin (Hebei Steel) was 3160 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan) [13]. - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of electric arc furnaces in East China was - 234.68 yuan (a decrease of 83 yuan), and the off - peak electricity profit was - 70 yuan (a decrease of 83 yuan). The long - process steel mills still had profits, but the short - process steel mills' profits were under pressure [32]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Summary - **International**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in January reached 52.6, a new high since August 2022. The eurozone's CPI in January increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest since September 2024, and the core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021. Indonesia plans to cut coal production and may impose export tariffs in 2026 [34]. - **Domestic**: In December, the new social financing was 22075 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 22.64%. The new RMB loans were 9100 billion yuan. The investment in fixed assets from January to December 2025 decreased by 3.80% year - on - year, with a significant decline in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment. The real estate market data such as new construction, completion, and sales still showed negative growth, and the willingness of residents to buy houses was insufficient [41]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (an increase of 0.6 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 16.9% (a decrease of 15.8%). The small - sample production of rebar was 191.68 tons (a decrease of 8.15 tons), and that of hot - rolled coil was 309.16 tons (a decrease of 0.05 tons) [59][65]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 147.64 tons (a decrease of 28.76 tons), and that for hot - rolled coil was 305.54 tons (a decrease of 5.87 tons). The demand for building materials has decreased due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has also declined as overseas manufacturing enters the off - season. The investment in domestic fixed assets has a lack of incremental projects, and the real estate market is still in a downward trend [68]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 44.04 tons (4.52 tons in mill inventory and 39.52 tons in social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.62 tons (1.50 tons in mill inventory and 2.12 tons in social inventory), and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 59.24 tons [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Despite being impacted by the sharp decline in leading commodities such as precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the cost side of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese provides strong support, so the long positions recommended in the previous report can be held [1][5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Ferrosilicon** - Supply: The operating rate and output of sample enterprises rebounded slightly, but the absolute values are still at a low level during the same period. Temporary power outages in some production areas in Ningxia led to some output losses, and the next statistical data may decline again [5] - Demand: Steel inventories have started seasonal accumulation, and steel output is also seasonally decreasing before the Spring Festival, but hot metal output is relatively stable, providing some support for raw material demand [5] - Cost: The electricity price in January is gradually settled. The electricity price for ferroalloys in production areas is generally stable, with some areas seeing an increase [5] - **Silicomanganese** - Supply: The operating rate and output both decreased again. With poor profit levels, the output within the sample is expected to remain at a low level [5] - Demand: Steel output has started seasonal production cuts. Although the current hot metal output from blast furnaces is stable, the seasonal production cuts in electric furnaces are more obvious, having a greater impact on silicomanganese demand [5] - Cost: The port manganese ore inventory is at a low level during the same period, and the port spot price is stable with a slight upward trend. The US dollar quotation for overseas manganese ore in March continues to rise slightly [5] - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Hold the long positions recommended in the previous report [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] 2. Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.2858 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in the five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) was 18,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons; the weekly demand for silicomanganese in the five major steel types (70%) was 116,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons [11] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 29.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.19%; the national ferrosilicon output (weekly supply) was 99,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 35.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%; the national silicomanganese output (99% of weekly supply) was 191,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons [12] - **Inventory**: In the week of February 6th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 66,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) was 377,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,500 tons [13] Spot Price - Basis - The document provides historical data on the market prices of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi, as well as the basis of the main contracts for Inner Mongolia silicomanganese and ferrosilicon [18] Ferroalloy Enterprise Production Situation - The document shows the weekly output and operating rate of domestic ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises over multiple years [24][25] Steel Mill Production Situation - The document presents data on the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly total steel output, profitability rate, social total steel inventory, and daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills over multiple years [32] Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit Table**: The production costs and profits of silicomanganese in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guizhou) are presented, along with the monthly output share [34] - **Graphical Data**: The document provides graphical data on silicomanganese cost and profit, including production cost, profit, and spot price [35][36] Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit Table**: The production costs and profits of ferrosilicon in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Qinghai, Gansu) are presented, along with the monthly output share [45] - **Graphical Data**: The document provides graphical data on ferrosilicon cost and profit, including production cost, profit, and spot price [46][50] Cost - Manganese Ore Price - The document shows historical data on the prices of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, the CIF quotes for South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps, and the prices of manganese ore from different origins at Tianjin Port [43] Cost - Carbon Element and Electricity Price - The document presents historical data on the prices of Fugu blue carbon small materials, Yulin steam coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices [53] Hebei Representative Steel Mill's Bilingual Steel Tendering Price - The document shows the monthly steel tendering prices of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [55][58] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Output - The cumulative and monthly output data of domestic silicomanganese and ferrosilicon over multiple years are presented, along with the year - on - year growth rate [62][63][65] Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - The document shows the monthly net import volume of domestic manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of ferrosilicon, as well as the monthly import volume of manganese ore and the monthly export volume of ferrosilicon over multiple years [70] Magnesium Metal Demand - The document presents historical data on the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative output of magnesium metal in Yulin City, Shaanxi Province [72] Alloy Factory vs Steel Mill Ferrosilicon Inventory - The inventory of alloy factories and the available inventory days of steel mills for ferrosilicon are presented, including regional data [78][81] Alloy Factory, Steel Mill, and Port Manganese Ore Inventory - The available inventory days of steel mills for silicomanganese, the total inventory of manganese ore at Tianjin Port, and the inventory of alloy factories for silicomanganese are presented, including regional data [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, China's log supply and demand showed a differentiated pattern. The supply was affected by natural disasters in New Zealand, with a 5% week - on - week decrease in the arrival volume at 13 ports in China. The demand was limited due to the approaching holiday of processing plants and the decline in the capital availability rate of construction projects. The inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 4.46%, and the radiation pine inventory dropped by 5.24%. The log valuation was regionally differentiated, and the price was in line with the actual supply - demand situation. It is expected that the log price will remain stable with a slight upward trend next week, and there will be no significant trend fluctuations [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Supply**: New Zealand's heavy rain in the North Island caused landslides, suspending logging around Tauranga Port and disrupting shipments. The arrival volume at 13 ports in China decreased by 5% week - on - week, and there was a structural shortage of 6 - meter logs at Jiangsu Taicang Port [7]. - **Demand**: Some processing plants have shut down, and most will have holidays from late January to early February. Although the national average daily outbound volume increased by 7.13%, the capital availability rate of construction sites decreased week - on - week, with both housing construction and non - housing construction projects seeing a decline, resulting in limited demand support [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 4.46%, the radiation pine inventory dropped by 5.24%, and the inventories at Shandong and Jiangsu ports decreased. Only the inventory of North American logs increased slightly, showing significant regional supply - demand structural differences [7]. 3.1.2 Logic Analysis - This week, the log valuation was regionally differentiated, and the price was in line with the actual supply - demand situation. The price increase in Jiangsu was mainly due to low arrivals, structural shortages, and pre - Spring Festival stocking. The stable price in Shandong was because of stable supply and lack of incremental demand. The January FOB price remained at $110, while the ocean freight increased, and there was an expectation of a price increase in the February FOB price. The downstream wood products' prices showed a mixed trend. In the short term, the valuation in Jiangsu was supported by tight supply, but the demand would be under pressure as processing plants approached holidays. The valuation in Shandong was constrained by the balance of supply and demand. It is expected that the price will remain stable next week without significant trend fluctuations [7]. 3.1.3 Strategies - **Unilateral**: The log price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. Investors are advised to go long based on the previous low [8]. - **Arbitrage**: The near - month contracts are expected to strengthen in the short term due to the natural disaster in New Zealand. Investors should pay attention to the log 03 - 05 spread [8]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Not provided with additional content beyond what's in the comprehensive analysis section 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Supply - From November to December, the volume of logs shipped to China increased from 1452,000 cubic meters to 1521,000 cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5%, and the number of ships increased from 49 to 55, an increase of 6 [17]. - From January 17 - 23, 2026, a total of 6 ships with 240,000 cubic meters of logs left 12 ports in New Zealand, a week - on - week increase of 2 ships and 120,000 cubic meters. Among them, 4 ships with 170,000 cubic meters were shipped directly to China, a week - on - week increase of 1 ship and 80,000 cubic meters [18]. - Due to heavy rain in New Zealand's North Island, logging around Tauranga Port was suspended, and the shipping had not returned to normal, with some ships delayed. From January 19 - 25, 2026, 11 ships with New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, the same as last week, and the total arrival volume was about 350,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 19,000 cubic meters and 5% [19]. 3.3.2 Log Inventory - As of January 16, the total inventory of domestic logs by material was 2.57 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 120,000 cubic meters and 4.46%. The radiation pine inventory was 2.17 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 120,000 cubic meters and 5.24%. The North American log inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters and 8.33%. The spruce/fir inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 cubic meters and 7.69% [22]. - As of January 16, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 410,820 cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 89,795 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,513 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 2 ports in Hebei was 71,000 cubic meters, an increase of 31,000 cubic meters from the previous period [22]. 3.3.3 Log Demand - As of January 16, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 61,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4100 cubic meters and 7.13%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 32,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4500 cubic meters and 16.13%. The average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 22,800 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 700 cubic meters and 2.98% [26]. - As of January 20, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 percentage points. The capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.84 percentage points. The regions with a decrease in capital availability were mainly in East China [26]. 3.3.4 Log Prices - **Radiation Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 740 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan per cubic meter and 8.64%. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 770 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per cubic meter and 2.67%, and a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan per cubic meter and 4.94%. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1150 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter and 0.86%, and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter and 9.52% [33]. - **Downstream Wood Product Prices**: Taking the 3000 * 40 * 90 radiation pine wood as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1200 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1260 yuan per cubic meter. Taking the 3000 * 40 * 90 spruce/white pine wood as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1750 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1680 yuan per cubic meter [36]. 3.3.5 Imported Log Costs - As of January 5, 2026, the FOB (CFR) price range of New Zealand radiation pine logs in January was $109 - 112 per JAS cubic meter, with the main price at $110 per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of $2 per JAS cubic meter from December [42].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp market's supply - demand imbalance has worsened, with increased port inventories and weak demand. Pulp valuation is in a weak downward trend, and prices may continue to seek support downward in the short term [4]. - The supply - demand of double - offset paper remains in a weak balance. Its valuation has stabilized at a low level. In the short term, it's hard to improve, and in the long term, it depends on post - holiday demand recovery and capacity clearance [4]. - Suggested trading strategies: for single - sided trading, adopt a short - selling approach for SP2505 and a bearish operation for OP2502; for arbitrage, mainly wait and watch, and pay attention to 4SP - OP arbitrage; for options, wait and watch for SP options, and sell OP2602 - C - 4300 for OP options [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: No specific content provided - **Trading Strategies**: - Single - sided: Adopt a short - selling approach for SP2505 and a bearish operation for OP2502 [4]. - Arbitrage: Mainly wait and watch, and pay attention to 4SP - OP arbitrage [4]. - Options: Wait and watch for SP options, and sell OP2602 - C - 4300 for OP options [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Pulp**: - Supply: The production of domestic broad - leaf pulp decreased by 0.3 tons to 24.9 tons, while chemimechanical pulp increased slightly by 0.1 tons. Port inventories increased to 2.068 million tons and have been rising for three consecutive weeks [4]. - Demand: Pre - holiday stocking is basically over. Domestic consumption decreased by 2.9 tons. The demand for white cardboard and double - offset paper declined, and overall demand support is insufficient [4]. - Valuation: It shows a weak downward trend, pressured by continuous inventory accumulation at ports and weak demand [4]. - **Double - offset Paper**: - Supply: The production was 196,000 tons, a 3.4% decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 50.2%, a 1.8% decrease. Although there were planned maintenance, the market supply was still abundant [4][8]. - Demand: Textbook printing has ended, social orders have not improved, and users mainly consumed inventories. The shipment volume decreased by 3.0%, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly by 0.4% [4][12]. - Valuation: It has stabilized at a low level, and the profit pressure has slightly eased. In the short term, it's hard to improve, and in the long term, it depends on post - holiday demand recovery and capacity clearance [4]. - **Copper - plate Paper**: - Supply: The production was 84,000 tons, a 1.2% increase. The capacity utilization rate was 62.0%, a 0.4% increase. The overall production change was small [16]. - Demand: Downstream consumption was weak, and there was no obvious inventory - building intention [20]. - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory was 383,000 tons, a 1.6% increase, and it may continue to increase slightly in the next period [20]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Double - offset Paper**: - Supply: Production decreased by 7,000 tons to 196,000 tons, a 3.4% decrease. The capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.8% to 50.2%. The weekly average profit was - 468.0 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin increased by 1.3 percentage points [8]. - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory was 1.407 million tons, a 0.4% increase. It's expected to remain high in the next period [12]. - Price: The enterprise - level average price of 70g double - offset paper was 4,642.9 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [39]. - **Copper - plate Paper**: - Supply: Production increased by 1,000 tons to 84,000 tons, a 1.2% increase. The capacity utilization rate increased by 0.4% to 62.0%. The weekly average profit was - 5.5 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin increased by 1.1 percentage points [16]. - Inventory: The production enterprise inventory was 383,000 tons, a 1.6% increase. It may continue to increase slightly in the next period [20]. - Price: The enterprise - level average price of 157g copper - plate paper was 4,975.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [39]. - **Domestic Pulp**: - Supply: The production of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 300 tons to 24,900 tons, and the production of chemimechanical pulp increased by 100 tons to 23,800 tons [23]. - Profit: The production profit of domestic broad - leaf pulp remained stable, and the overall profit was better than that of chemimechanical pulp [23]. - **Wood Pulp**: - Supply: The market price of domestic chemimechanical pulp remained at 2,575 yuan/ton. The port inventory was 2.068 million tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous period, and has been rising for three consecutive weeks [27]. - **Pulp Demand - Tissue Paper**: - Supply: The production was 293,500 tons, a 0.17% increase. The capacity utilization rate was 68.96%, a 0.9 - percentage - point increase [31]. - Inventory: The inventory was 629,500 tons, a 0.22% decrease. The inventory days were 20.51 days, a 0.19% decrease [31]. - **Pulp Demand - White Cardboard**: - Inventory: The production factory inventory was 1.07 million tons, a 0.47% decrease. Production and inventory are expected to continue to decline in the next period [35]. - **Prices**: - Double - offset and Copper - plate Paper: The prices of 70g double - offset paper and 157g copper - plate paper remained unchanged from the previous period [39]. - Various Pulps: The average spot -含税 price of imported softwood pulp decreased by 2.8% to 5,388 yuan/ton; the average spot -含税 price of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 1.2% to 4,671 yuan/ton; the average spot -含税 price of chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 3,800 yuan/ton; the average spot -含税 price of unbleached pulp decreased by 0.6% to 5,000 yuan/ton [44].