Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the over - increase, there may be a correction. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long positions when the price rises to a high level in November and maintain the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [1][79]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In October, the overall trend of the Shanghai aluminum market was a high - opening after the holiday, followed by a decline and then a gradual strengthening. After the double - festivals, the external precious metals and non - ferrous metals performed well, and aluminum followed the upward trend. However, due to a series of events such as China's export control on rare earths, anti - monopoly investigations, and tariff announcements, the aluminum price fluctuated. Later, with positive factors like the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan summary, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the aluminum price gradually strengthened [5][6]. 2. Macro and Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Overseas Macro Indicators**: The Federal Reserve has had a series of interest rate decisions including rate cuts and rate holds in 2024 - 2025, and an expected rate cut in December 2025. The European Central Bank has also adjusted its interest rates, with multiple rate cuts and rate holds. A series of macro - economic data such as the US federal funds rate, PCE price index, and euro - zone HICP are presented [12][14]. - **Domestic Macro Indicators**: Domestic GDP growth, social financing scale, PMI, exchange rates, CPI, PPI, and other data are shown. In September, China's exports and imports increased significantly year - on - year. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a series of consensus, and the external tariff environment is temporarily stable. It is expected that exports will strengthen month - on - month in November [19][25]. 3. Aluminum Raw Materials - **Domestic Bauxite**: The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening. Due to strengthened safety supervision and environmental inspections in Shanxi and Henan, combined with the rainy season, bauxite mining activities are restricted. Although the price of domestic bauxite is firm, it will face pressure with the increase in imported bauxite after the end of the rainy season in Guinea [28]. - **Imported Bauxite**: In September 2025, the import volume of bauxite decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Guinea is the largest supplier. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the bauxite supply is expected to increase, and the price of imported bauxite is expected to decline [31]. 4. Alumina - At the end of October, the built - in production capacity of alumina remained unchanged month - on - month, while the operating capacity decreased. The domestic spot weighted index of alumina declined. Newly - put - into - production capacity in the first half of the year has entered a stable production state, but some small - scale and high - cost alumina enterprises in inland areas are facing losses and production cuts. In November, alumina is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and one can try to go long lightly near 2700 or sell out - of - the - money put options [34]. 5. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Production Capacity**: As of the end of October, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged month - on - month, and the operating capacity decreased slightly. The decrease was mainly due to the technical transformation of some electrolytic cells in Shanxi Shuozhou Energy. The remaining new production capacity expected to be put into operation this year is 110,000 tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly in November, but the new production capacity is very limited [38]. - **Imports**: In September 2025, the import volume of primary aluminum increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Russia and Indonesia are the main suppliers. In October, the loss of aluminum imports widened. In November, the London aluminum is expected to correct after over - increase, and the import of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The main costs of electrolytic aluminum are electricity, alumina, and pre - baked anodes. In October, the average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 14,980 yuan/ton, mainly due to the decline in alumina prices [43]. 6. Downstream Demand for Aluminum - **Automobile**: In September, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the export of automobiles reached a new high. With the implementation of the 69 - billion - yuan special treasury bond for consumer goods replacement and the peak season of automobile production and sales, the demand for aluminum in the automobile industry is expected to continue to grow [51]. - **Real Estate**: From January to September, real estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, and other indicators declined year - on - year. Although some cities have introduced real - estate relaxation policies, the market is still weak, and this weak trend is expected to continue in November [55]. - **Infrastructure**: In September, the issuance of new local bonds decreased. The issuance progress of new local special bonds in the first nine months was relatively fast, which is expected to drive infrastructure investment. However, the high proportion of special bonds used for debt repayment will have a squeezing effect on infrastructure investment. Although the growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down recently, power grid investment has increased significantly, and the future demand for aluminum in infrastructure is still optimistic [58]. - **Home Appliances**: In September, the production and sales of home appliances were stable, and the export performance was stronger than the seasonal average. However, the production schedule of the three major white - goods in November decreased month - on - month, and the demand for aluminum in the home - appliance industry is expected to decrease [61]. - **Photovoltaic**: In September, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. With the release of provincial mechanism electricity prices and the start of some centralized photovoltaic projects, the photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to continue to improve at a low level in November [66]. - **Aluminum Products Export**: In September, the export of aluminum products decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import of aluminum products also decreased. In November, the London aluminum is expected to correct after over - increase, and the net export of aluminum products is expected to decline month - on - month [69]. 7. Inventory - The inventory depletion in October was satisfactory [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - Polyolefins face significant upward pressure and are expected to trade within a range. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, Fed rate cuts, China-US talks, the Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations. The cost side provides short-term support at the bottom, but due to insufficient supply-demand improvements, upward pressure remains high. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 6900, while the PP main contract is expected to weaken with support at 6600. The LP spread is expected to widen [8][9] - Plastics still have supply-demand contradictions and are expected to move in a sideways pattern [10] - PP faces significant trend pressure and is expected to weaken in the short term [51] Summary by Directory Plastic Market Review - On October 31, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,899 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3.55%. The average price of LDPE was 9,136.67 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.92%. The average price of HDPE was 7,650 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3.32%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,421.76 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.70%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 522.76 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 31.68%. The 1-5 month spread was -75 yuan/ton (-178) [12] Key Data Tracking - **Month Spread**: The 1-5 month spread was -75 yuan/ton (-178), the 5-9 month spread was -53 yuan/ton (-39), and the 9-1 month spread was 128 yuan/ton (+217) [19] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various polyethylene products in different regions showed different degrees of change, with some prices rising and some falling [20][21] - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at $60.88 per barrel, a decrease of $1.55 from the previous month, and Brent crude oil closed at $64.58 per barrel, a decrease of $1.57 from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,090 yuan/ton (+10) [23] - **Profit**: The profit of oil-based PE was -357 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the profit of coal-based PE was 201 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan/ton from the previous month [28] - **Supply**: The production start-up rate of polyethylene in China this month was 80.86%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points from the end of last month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 643,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.71%. The maintenance of petrochemical enterprise equipment remained at a high level this week, with a maintenance loss of 112,100 tons, an increase of 54,000 tons from last week [33] - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 5.43 million tons of new polyethylene production capacity is planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already in operation and some still under construction [36] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple polyethylene production lines of various enterprises are under maintenance, with some having uncertain restart times [38] - **Demand**: The overall start-up rate of domestic agricultural film this week was 49.53%, an increase of 16.67% from the end of last month; the start-up rate of PE packaging film was 51.30%, a decrease of 1.07% from the end of last month; the start-up rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, unchanged from the end of last month [39] - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 33.5%, which is 1.8% different from the annual average level. The difference between the high-pressure film and the annual average data is significant, currently accounting for 8.8%, which is 1.8% different from the annual average level [43] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises this week was 527,400 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons from the end of last month, a month-on-month decrease of 1.38% [45] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,706 lots, a decrease of 30 lots from the end of last month [48] PP Market Review - On October 31, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 262 yuan/ton from the end of last month, a month-on-month decrease of 3.82% [52] Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various polypropylene products showed different degrees of change, with some prices rising and some falling [54][56] - **Basis**: On October 31, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6,723.33 yuan/ton (-2.84). The PP basis was 133 yuan/ton (+65), and the basis widened. The 1-5 month spread was -40 yuan/ton (-19), and the month spread narrowed [58] - **Month Spread**: The 1-5 month spread was -84 yuan/ton (-128), the 5-9 month spread was -19 yuan/ton (-85), and the 9-1 month spread was 103 yuan/ton (+213) [63] - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at $60.88 per barrel, a decrease of $1.55 from the previous month, and Brent crude oil closed at $64.58 per barrel, a decrease of $1.57 from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,090 yuan/ton (+10) [68] - **Profit**: The profit of oil-based PP was -606.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 113.03 yuan/ton from the end of last month, and the profit of coal-based PP was -269.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 607.60 yuan/ton from the end of last month [73] - **Supply**: The start-up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 77.06%, an increase of 1.54 percentage points from the end of last month. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 789,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.48%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 78,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.82% [77] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple PP production lines of various enterprises are under maintenance, with some having uncertain restart times [80] - **Demand**: The average start-up rate of downstream industries this week was 52.61% (+0.30). The start-up rate of plastic weaving was 44.20% (-0.20%), the start-up rate of BOPP was 61.57% (+0.16%), the start-up rate of injection molding was 59.06% (+0.72%), and the start-up rate of pipes was 36.807% (-0.07%) [82] - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene this week was -$337.83 per ton, an increase of $208.99 from last month, and the export profit was -$31.12 per ton, a decrease of $23.89 from last month [87] - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of polypropylene this week was 595,100 tons (-6.80%); the inventory of the two major state-owned oil companies decreased by 9.19% month-on-month, the inventory of traders decreased by 2.91% month-on-month, and the port inventory decreased by 2.25% month-on-month [90] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,569 lots, an increase of 471 lots from the end of last month [103]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of domestic lithium carbonate remains in a tight balance before the issue of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi is clearly resolved. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported, and it is likely to continue a moderately strong and volatile trend. Traders are advised to be cautious and pay attention to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Views - **Supply Side** - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, last week's lithium carbonate production increased by 150 tons week - on - week to 23,320 tons, and October's production increased by 10% month - on - month to 105,040 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has been confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In Q3, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the room for further cost reduction is extremely limited, with most mainstream Australian mines reducing their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. In September 2025, China imported 711,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. Lithium carbonate imports in September were 19,597 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers producing lithium carbonate from externally purchased lithium ore. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes have some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [5]. - **Demand Side** - Overall production scheduling in October increased month - on - month, and in September, the production scheduling of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% month - on - month and 35.4% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 26.7 GWh, an 18.2% month - on - month and 28.3% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 146.5 GWh, a 9.0% month - on - month and 42.2% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax at the policy level are also expected to continuously support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [6]. - **Inventory** - This week, lithium carbonate inventory showed a destocking state. Factory inventory decreased by 1,245 tons, market inventory decreased by 59 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 1,078 tons [6]. 3.2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple sets of data on lithium carbonate, including historical price trends of spot -含税 average price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average production cost, and production proportion of lithium carbonate from different raw materials in October 2024. It also shows data on battery production (including power and other batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries), production and loading volume differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries, and production of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, and manganese - acid lithium. In addition, it includes price data of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as import volume data of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [8][9][11][13][23][24][26][30][31][36][38][42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The Sino - US negotiation has concluded, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The market is still skeptical about the tariff details. After the correction, precious metals rebounded. There is a divergence in the market regarding whether there will be an interest rate cut in December, and the expected end - point of this round of interest rate cuts has been lowered compared to the previous period. The Fed meeting minutes show that most officials believe it may be appropriate to further ease policies this year. The influence of Trump on the Fed's independence is emerging, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Although Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, it is not certain that the Fed will further cut interest rates at the December monetary policy meeting. With the US economic data trending weaker and concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, it is expected that the medium - term prices of precious metals will still be supported, while the short - term prices are still in an adjustment state. It is recommended to pay attention to the US ADP employment data to be released this Wednesday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Gold**: Due to the conclusion of the Sino - US negotiation, market doubts about tariff details, and the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, the price of US gold declined. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4013 per ounce, down 2.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4100, and the lower support level is $3950 [6]. - **Silver**: Affected by the same factors, the price of US silver showed a weak oscillation. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 0.3%, closing at $48.3 per ounce. The lower support level is $47, and the upper resistance level is $49.5 [9]. 3.2 Weekly Viewpoint The factors mentioned above led to the correction and subsequent rebound of precious metals. The market is divided on the December interest - rate cut, and the expected end - point of this round of cuts has been lowered. The Fed may further ease policies, but a December cut is not guaranteed. With the weakening US economic data and concerns about fiscal and Fed independence, precious metals are expected to be supported in the medium - term but are in short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the US ADP employment data on Wednesday [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar and pound - US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates, yield spreads, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance - sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific analysis of these indicators is provided in the text [15][17][19]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week The announced value of the US October Chicago PMI was 43.8, higher than the expected value of 42.3 and the previous value of 40.6 [26]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - **Sino - US Negotiation**: The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. China will adjust counter - measures accordingly. Both sides agree to extend some tariff exclusion measures. The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control announced on September 29 for one year, and China will suspend relevant export - control measures announced on October 9 for one year and study specific plans [27]. - **Fed**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 - 4.0% at the October FOMC meeting, in line with market expectations, and will end the balance - sheet reduction on December 1. Powell said that the government "shutdown" affects the economy, but the impact will reverse after the "shutdown" ends. A further interest - rate cut at the December meeting is not certain [27]. - **European Central Bank**: The ECB kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% at the interest - rate meeting. This is the third consecutive time it has kept rates unchanged. The last rate cut was in June when the euro - area inflation rate reached the 2% target [27]. 3.6 Inventory - **Gold**: COMEX inventory decreased by 22,053.63 kg to 1,187,159.84 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 801 kg to 87,816 kg [13][31]. - **Silver**: COMEX inventory decreased by 451,258.42 kg to 15,005,532.25 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 573 kg to 665,544 kg [13][31]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - **Gold**: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from the previous week [13][36]. - **Silver**: The net long position of CFTC speculative funds was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from the previous week [13][36]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Monday (November 3), 23:00, the US October ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released. - On Wednesday (November 5), 21:15, the change in the US October ADP employment number will be announced [38].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: The opening of US soybean imports drives up costs, leading to an upward trend in domestic soybean meal prices. However, the upside is limited due to factors such as the high cost of US soybeans and the weakening of domestic demand growth [5][7]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short - term, the market is in a volatile adjustment phase. Attention should be paid to the realization of positive factors from the producing areas. The prices of palm oil and rapeseed oil are under pressure, while soybean oil shows relatively stronger performance [78][80]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal - **Market Review**: As of October 31, the spot price in East China was 2950 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton monthly. The M2601 contract closed at 3021 yuan/ton, up 93 yuan/ton monthly. The basis price decreased by 30 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Supply**: The USDA October report was delayed. US soybean exports accelerated, but China's actual purchases were limited. Brazilian old - crop sales pressure increased, and the new - crop planting progress was 50% as of October 31, lower than the same period last year [7]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand. The demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year [7]. - **Cost**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1135 cents/bushel. The estimated bottom price of US soybeans is around 980 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost is calculated to be 3080 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: US soybean prices are expected to fluctuate around 1100 cents/bushel. Domestic soybean meal prices will follow the upward trend of import costs, but the performance is not as strong as that of US soybeans [7]. - **Strategy**: Slightly reduce M2601 long positions and re - enter at low prices. Lightly build long positions in M2605 and M2609 at low prices. Spot enterprises should sell the basis at high prices and roll long positions [7]. Oils and Fats - **Market Review**: As of October 31, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices showed different trends. Palm oil and rapeseed oil prices declined, while soybean oil prices were relatively stable [80][82]. - **Palm Oil**: In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, and exports increased less than production, with an expected inventory build - up. In Indonesia, production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025, and the implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy may face obstacles. In the short - term, palm oil prices are under pressure, but there is support below [80]. - **Soybean Oil**: After the APEC meeting, China agreed to purchase US soybeans, which boosted the market sentiment. The high - level soybean crushing volume in September and the possible downward adjustment of the new - crop yield of US soybeans supported the short - term rebound of US soybean prices. In the long - term, the supply of domestic soybean oil is still sufficient, which limits the de - stocking speed [80]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The relationship between China and Canada has improved, and the possibility of Canadian rapeseed entering China has increased. The supply of rapeseed in Canada is expected to be abundant, but there is still a supply gap in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [80]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the upside of oils and fats is limited, but the adjustment range is restricted. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the implementation of biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the United States, the reduction of palm oil production in Southeast Asia, and the start of weather speculation in South America [80]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support levels of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts. Consider the strategy of narrowing the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil 01 contracts and widening the spread between soybean oil and palm oil 01 contracts [80].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report: Macroeconomic Benefits Released, Copper Prices Soar and Fluctuate - Report Date: November 3, 2025 - Report Source: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile under the influence of macro and fundamental factors. The main contract of Shanghai copper may operate in the range of 85,000 - 89,000 yuan. It is recommended to close long positions at high levels and wait and see, or conduct short - term trading within the range [7]. - The tight supply of copper concentrate and the expectation of further tightening in the future continue. The long - term demand outlook for copper remains optimistic, but the high copper prices in the short term significantly suppress downstream demand [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: The shortage of copper mines persists, and refined copper production continues to decline. As of October 31, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 461,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 14.11%. The spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate was - 42.26 US dollars per ton, reaching a historical low. In October, the electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%. Eight smelters were under maintenance in October, affecting the production of electrolytic copper [5]. - **Demand Side**: High copper prices suppress demand, and the operating rate declines month - on - month. As of October 30, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 60.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.69 percentage points. The high copper prices significantly suppress downstream purchasing sentiment. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventory continues to accumulate. As of October 31, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11.61 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.83%. As of October 30, the domestic social copper inventory was 182,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.55%. LME copper inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, while COMEX copper inventory increased by 2.21% week - on - week [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - **Macroeconomic Data Overview**: China's industrial enterprise profits in September increased by 21.6% year - on - year; the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a consensus; China's official manufacturing PMI in October fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1; the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and will end balance - sheet reduction in December; the eurozone's Q3 GDP increased by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations; the US Senate passed a resolution to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy [16]. - **Industrial News Overview**: Teck Resources' Q3 copper production decreased year - on - year; Antofagasta's Q3 copper production decreased by 9.6% year - on - year; Trump revoked Biden's copper smelter emission limit order; ICSG warned that the copper market will face a shortage in 2026; Anglo American's Q3 copper production increased year - on - year; Glencore's copper production in the first three quarters decreased by 17% year - on - year and lowered its 2025 production forecast [18]. 3.3 Spot - Futures Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: At the beginning of the week, the sharp rise in copper prices weakened downstream purchasing sentiment, and the spot discount of Shanghai copper widened. During the week, the spot discount of Shanghai copper stabilized at a low level, and then converged as purchasing sentiment increased. The refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed during the week. LME copper maintained a small discount, and the price difference between COMEX and LME copper remained stable [25]. - **Domestic and Overseas Positions**: As of October 31, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures increased significantly, with a week - on - week increase of 73.76%, while the open interest decreased by 6.29% week - on - week. As of October 24, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased significantly, with a week - on - week decrease of 70.40% [27]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The shortage of copper mines persists, and processing fees have reached a low level. The domestic electrolytic copper production continues to decline. In October, the electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31% [36]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: As of October 30, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 60.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.69 percentage points. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [40]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11.61 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.83%. As of October 30, the domestic social copper inventory was 182,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.55%. LME copper inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, while COMEX copper inventory increased by 2.21% week - on - week [43].

螺纹：期货估值偏低 回落做多为宜 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-11-03 【产业服务总部 | 黑色产业服务中心】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 11月观点：钢材估值偏低 回落做多为宜 逻辑与策略 交易逻辑：10月份，钢材先跌后涨，双焦则持续走强，钢材明显弱于原料，钢厂盘面利润与现货生产利润均下滑。宏观方面，一 系列重磅事件相继落地，"十五五"规划出炉、美联储如期降息、中美元首釜山会晤。产业方面，10月螺纹钢产量小幅下降、需求略 有回升，库存先增后减，环比9月底减少30多万吨，焦煤受安检、环保等政策影响，产量出现反复，目前同比偏低。 11月份，宏观方面，9月底推出了5000亿新型政策性金融工具、10月从地方政府债务结存限额中安排5000亿元下达地方，全年完 成经济目标的压力不大，不过为实现"十四五"圆满收官与"十五五"顺利开局，仍需关注政策是否会加码，另外反内卷大方向确定， 虽然本轮周期可能较长，但政策举措可能时有出台，会对盘面带来扰动。产业方面，预计11月螺纹产量稳中走低、需求先强后弱，库 存仍能缓慢去化，在铁水产量 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - hold and observe [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal - range trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - sell call options [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - exit long positions at high levels or short - term range trading; Aluminum - buy on dips after pullbacks; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - oscillate; Caustic soda - oscillate weakly; Soda ash - short - term bearish on 01 contract; Styrene - oscillate; Rubber - oscillate; Urea - oscillate; Methanol - oscillate; Polyolefins - wide - range oscillation [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - oscillate strongly; PTA - oscillate; Apples - oscillate strongly; Red dates - oscillate [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Hogs - rebound under pressure; Eggs - rebound under pressure; Corn - weakly oscillate; Soybean meal - rebound from lows; Oils - weakly oscillate [1] Core Views - After the end of Sino - US trade negotiations, third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session, the market enters a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies, lacking catalysts for direction, so it will oscillate until the end - of - year changes. The bond market environment is conducive to the spread - compression strategy, but there are still risks in the short - end Treasury pricing and institutional positions. The black building materials market has a tight supply - demand pattern, and the double - coking market is oscillating. The non - ferrous metals market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - environment, showing different trends. The energy and chemical market is affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies, with overall weak fundamentals. The cotton textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand changes, showing an oscillating and slightly strong trend. The agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies, with different trends for different varieties [5][10][20] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Oscillate in the short - term, medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips. After the end of events, the market enters a vacuum period, lacking direction catalysts [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. The bond market environment is conducive to the spread - compression strategy, but there are risks in short - end pricing and institutional positions. Keep a balanced allocation [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking**: Oscillate. The coal market has a tight supply - demand pattern, with prices rising steadily and improving sentiment. Pay attention to the resumption of production in coal mines [6] - **Rebar**: Oscillate. After the end of macro events in late October, black prices fell. The rebar price is at a neutral - low valuation, and with the improvement in demand and inventory reduction, it is advisable to buy on dips in the RB2601 contract, focusing on the range of 3000 - 3200 [7] - **Glass**: Sell call options. The glass market has a poor supply - demand pattern, with high inventory and weakening downstream demand. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract and hold until maturity [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. The copper price reached a record high and then fell. It is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade, supply disruptions, and Fed policies. The short - term supply - demand support is limited, and it is recommended to exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term range trading [10] - **Aluminum**: Neutral, high - level oscillation. The price of Guinea bauxite is under pressure, and the production capacity and inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum have changed. The demand is weakening, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels [11] - **Nickel**: Neutral, oscillate. The nickel market has an oversupply pattern in the medium to long - term, with uncertainties in supply policies. It is recommended to observe or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: Neutral, oscillate. The production of refined tin has decreased, and the supply is expected to improve. The downstream demand is weak, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, focusing on the 12 - contract range of 275,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton [16] - **Silver and Gold**: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by Sino - US negotiations and Fed policies, there is support in the medium - term, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, focusing on the 12 - contract ranges [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Neutral, oscillate. The PVC has high supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export support. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract range of 4600 - 4800 [19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Neutral, weakly oscillate. Affected by alumina production and inventory, it is recommended to focus on the 2400 resistance level of the 01 contract [21][23] - **Styrene**: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by cost, supply, and demand, it is recommended to focus on the range of 6300 - 6700 [23] - **Rubber**: Neutral, oscillate. The rubber price is affected by raw material prices and macro - sentiment, with limited downside space. It is recommended to focus on the 15,000 support level [25] - **Urea**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of urea has decreased, and the demand has increased, with inventory changes. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract range of 1600 - 1700 [26][27] - **Methanol**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of methanol is tight in some areas, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract range of 2230 - 2330 [27][28] - **Polyolefins**: Neutral, weakly oscillate. The polyolefin market is affected by cost, supply, and demand. It is recommended to focus on the 6900 support level for L2601 and 6600 for PP2601 [28][30] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish on the 01 contract. The soda ash market has a supply - demand imbalance, with high inventory and rising costs. It is recommended to maintain a short position on the 01 contract [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Neutral, oscillate strongly. Affected by global cotton supply - demand changes, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [35] - **PTA**: Low - level oscillation. Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is recommended to focus on the range of 4400 - 4700 [35][36] - **Apples**: Neutral, oscillate strongly. The apple production quality has decreased, and the delivery cost is expected to rise, with a strong price trend [36] - **Red Dates**: Neutral, oscillate. The red date price is stable, and attention should be paid to the price changes after the new - season listing [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Rebound under pressure. In the short - term, the pig price oscillates, and in the medium to long - term, the supply is high and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to capacity reduction [39][40] - **Eggs**: Rebound under pressure. The egg price is supported in the short - term but under pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and observe the 01 - contract [41][42] - **Corn**: Weakly oscillate. The new - season corn supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 01 - contract and pay attention to the 2170 - 2200 resistance level [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: Rebound from lows. Affected by soybean procurement and cost, it is recommended to take profit on long positions at high levels for the M2601 contract and conduct basis trading for spot enterprises [45] - **Oils**: Palm oil is weak, soybean oil is strong, and high - level adjustment. Affected by supply - demand and policies, it is recommended to focus on the support levels of the 01 - contracts and pay attention to spread trading strategies [46][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommend buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggest holding a wait - and - see attitude [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggest range trading; bearish on glass, recommend selling call options [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Bullish on copper at low prices, suggest holding small long positions cautiously without chasing highs; neutral on aluminum, suggest taking profit on long positions when favorable factors are realized; neutral on nickel, suggest waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggest range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggest range trading [1][9][10][11][14][16][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol, suggest range trading; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, recommend a short - selling strategy; neutral on polyolefins, suggest a bearish - biased range trading strategy [1][19][21][22][24][25][27][28][29][30] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggest a bullish - biased range trading strategy; neutral on PTA, suggest range trading; neutral on apples, suggest a bullish - biased range trading strategy; neutral on jujubes, suggest range trading [1][34][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs, recommend shorting on rallies; bearish on eggs, recommend shorting on rallies; bearish on corn, suggest a bearish - biased range trading strategy; bullish on soybean meal at low prices, suggest holding long positions; neutral on oils and fats, suggest a high - level adjustment strategy with a focus on the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1][38][40][42][44][46][52] Core Views - The positive results of the Sino - US talks and the positive stance of the 15th Five - Year Plan suggest that subsequent policies are worth looking forward to, and stock indices may fluctuate with a bullish bias [5] - The Sino - US talks, policy announcements, and market sentiment lead to a complex situation for government bonds, which are expected to fluctuate [5][6] - In the black building materials sector, the short - term supply shortage of coking coal and the low valuation of rebar support their prices, while the fundamentals of glass are deteriorating [7][8] - For non - ferrous metals, factors such as supply shortages, policy expectations, and seasonal changes affect the prices of copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, with different trading strategies recommended for each [9][10][11][14][16][18] - In the energy and chemicals sector, factors like cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies influence the prices of various products, and most are expected to fluctuate [19][20][21][22][24][25][27][28][29] - In the cotton and textile industry chain, the supply - demand situation and market sentiment affect the prices of cotton, PTA, apples, and jujubes, with different trends expected [34][35][36] - In the agriculture and animal husbandry sector, factors such as supply, demand, and seasonality affect the prices of pigs, eggs, corn, soybean meal, and oils and fats, and corresponding trading strategies are provided [38][40][42][44][46][52] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: The Sino - US talks achieved positive results, and the 15th Five - Year Plan has a positive stance. Stock indices may fluctuate with a bullish bias. It is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [5] - **Government Bonds**: Affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US talks, policy announcements, and market sentiment, government bonds are expected to fluctuate [5][6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and prices are on an upward trend. The short - term supply shortage supports the price [7] - **Rebar**: The price is at a relatively low valuation, and the demand has rebounded while the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The fundamental situation is deteriorating, and it is recommended to sell call options for the 01 contract [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply shortage and positive policy expectations support the price, but the high price suppresses demand. It is recommended to hold small long positions at low prices without chasing highs [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity and inventory situation are complex, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions when favorable factors are realized [11] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty, and the long - term supply is expected to be in surplus. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [15][16] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US economic data and interest rate cut expectations, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term and have support in the medium term. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4600 - 4800 for the 01 contract [19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as alumina production and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract paying attention to the pressure at 2400 [21][22] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply - demand situation lead to an expected range - bound movement between 6300 - 6700 [23][24] - **Rubber**: The high raw material price suppresses demand, and it is expected to fluctuate around 15000 [24][25] - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1700 [25][26] - **Methanol**: The supply is tight in some areas, the downstream demand is weak, and the port inventory is under pressure. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2230 - 2330 [27][28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has an increasing expectation, the demand improvement is slow, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The PE and PP contracts should pay attention to the support at 7000 and 6600 respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy for the 01 contract [30][32] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The supply - demand situation improves, and it is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [34] - **PTA**: The oil price and supply - demand situation lead to a low - level range - bound movement between 4400 - 4700 [34][35] - **Apples**: The quality decline and cost increase support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [35] - **Jujubes**: The price is stable, and it is recommended to pay attention to the price change after the new season's centralized listing [36][37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is loose in the medium term, and it is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts, and be cautious about bottom - fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [38][39][40] - **Eggs**: The short - term demand is weak, and the long - term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 contract and wait and watch for the 01 contract [40][41] - **Corn**: The new crop's listing pressure is large, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the 01 contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread [42][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The cost increase drives the price up, and it is recommended to hold long positions for the M2601 contract and pay attention to the basis trading [44][45][46] - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend is under pressure, but there is support below. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [46][47][52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; hold a neutral stance on government bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt a range trading strategy for coking coal and rebar; sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions on copper on dips without chasing highs; wait for price pullbacks to go long on aluminum; either hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on nickel on rallies; use a range trading strategy for tin, gold, and silver [1][11][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; take a short position on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a slight upward bias; PTA is expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a slight upward bias; red dates are expected to trade in a range [1][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Go short on hogs and eggs on rallies; corn is expected to trade with a downward bias; soybean meal is expected to rebound from a low level; oils are expected to experience a high-level adjustment with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong [1][39][40][46] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on factors such as supply and demand, cost, macroeconomic policies, and international trade relations [1][5][7] - It emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors and market uncertainties when making investment decisions, and provides specific price ranges and trading strategies for different products [11][20][21] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market is expected to trade with a slight upward bias in the medium to long term. The recent market has seen an increase in trading volume, with sectors such as new energy and non-ferrous metals performing strongly. Positive factors such as Sino-US talks and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may support the upward movement of stock indices [5] - **Government Bonds**: The market is expected to trade in a range. Although the central bank will resume open market bond trading, the improving market risk appetite may limit the upward potential of government bonds [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking (Coking Coal and Coke)**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The recent price increase is mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream coking coal prices, and the short-term supply shortage is the core factor supporting the strong operation of coal prices [7] - **Rebar**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The futures price has strengthened recently, and the low valuation and improving market sentiment may limit the downward space of steel prices. It is recommended to go long on the RB2601 contract on dips [7] - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options. The recent fundamental situation has continued to deteriorate, and the lack of macro policy expectations may make it difficult for the price to rise. It is expected that the price will be more likely to fall than rise [8][9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is expected to trade at a high level. The recent strong rise in copper prices is driven by factors such as supply shortage concerns and optimistic trade prospects. However, the high price may suppress downstream demand, and the price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the near term [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to trade at a high level. The recent decline in electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the positive signals from Sino-US and overseas economic policies may support the price. It is recommended to take profit on long positions on rallies and pay attention to tariff developments and market sentiment [13] - **Nickel**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia may bring some uncertainties to the supply of nickel ore, and the medium to long-term supply surplus may continue. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to use a range trading strategy and pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [17][18] - **Silver and Gold**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The recent decline in prices is due to factors such as the improvement of the US government shutdown situation and the divergence in the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. However, the expected interest rate cuts and safe-haven sentiment may support the prices in the medium term [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The high supply and weak domestic demand, along with the uncertain export sustainability, may keep the PVC market in a weak position. However, the low valuation and potential policy and cost disturbances may limit the downward space [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to trade with a downward bias. The short-term supply pressure may be relieved by new maintenance, but the future increase in production and the weak demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream stocking rhythm and export situation [22][23] - **Styrene**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The high inventory and limited demand may lead to a weak supply-demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as oil prices, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies [23][24] - **Rubber**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The strong raw material prices and positive macro sentiment may support the price, but the high inventory may limit the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as inventory changes and downstream demand [25] - **Urea**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The increase in maintenance devices and the improvement in agricultural and industrial demand may support the price, but the high inventory may limit the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as supply and demand changes and export situations [26][27] - **Methanol**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The decrease in production capacity utilization and the increase in demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry may support the price, but the high inventory may limit the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to trade with a downward bias. The expected increase in supply and the slow recovery of demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as downstream demand, Fed interest rate cuts, and Sino-US trade relations [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to take a short position on the 01 contract. The supply surplus and weak demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as supply and demand changes and cost pressures [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to trade with a slight upward bias. The increase in global cotton production and consumption, along with the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, may support the price [35] - **PTA**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The weak supply-demand situation and the high inventory may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as oil prices and supply and demand changes [35][36] - **Apples**: The market is expected to trade with a slight upward bias. The stable market situation in the western regions and the increase in demand may support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as production and quality changes [36] - **Red Dates**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The stable market price and the expected increase in supply may lead to a stable price trend. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as new-season listing and price changes [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: The market is expected to face pressure on the upside. The current supply is relatively loose, and the intervention of secondary fattening may shift the supply pressure to the future. It is recommended to take a short position on the 01, 03, and 05 contracts in the medium term and pay attention to the supply and demand changes and capacity reduction [39][40] - **Eggs**: The market is expected to face pressure on the upside. The current supply is relatively large, and the seasonal decline in demand may limit the upward space of egg prices. It is recommended to take a short position on the 12 contract on rallies and hold a wait-and-see stance on the 01 contract [41][42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to trade with a downward bias. The increase in new grain supply and the weak demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to take a short position on the 01 contract on rallies and pay attention to factors such as policy and weather changes [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to rebound from a low level. The increase in soybean imports and the improvement in demand may support the price. It is recommended to hold long positions on the M2601 contract and pay attention to the Sino-US trade relations and soybean procurement [46][47] - **Oils**: The market is expected to experience a high-level adjustment. The short-term pressure on the price is due to factors such as the increase in palm oil production and the weak demand. However, the potential supply shortage and the positive signals from Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations may support the price in the medium term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils and the spread between soybean and palm oils [48][49][54]