长江期货PTA产业周报 宏观预期转好，短期偏强震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-05-19 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 行情回顾： 1 01 上周回顾——短期供需尚可，市场低位震荡 PX：上周PX价格延续反弹。一方面成本端原油价格支撑走强。另一方面PX供应端继续减产，周度产量减少， 社会库存缓降，PXN略有回升，总体而言较前一周基本略有好转，在春检时期，短期市场价格反弹。 PTA：上周PTA价格持续回升。成本端国际油价支撑化工品反弹；供应装置方面，恒力惠州2#重启，恒力石化 2#检修，百宏恢复，PTA开工回升，下游聚酯负荷小幅降低，综合供需PTA去库延续，价格持续上涨。 乙二醇：上周乙二醇价格大幅反弹，期初受国际油价上涨，成本支撑价格走强；而后随着宏观面逐步转好，逢 低买盘兴趣提升推动市场从低位反弹走势，期现价格开始反弹，但由于港口数据回升 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the May Day holiday this week, the shipping enthusiasm of merchants decreased, and the overall sales speed slowed down slightly compared with before the holiday. The apple market price tended to be stable, and the high - cost - effective supply remained strong. Market customers restocked as needed after the holiday, and the producing areas mainly shipped the previously packed goods. The inventory holders' willingness to sell increased. With the rising temperature, seasonal melons were on the market one after another, and the small - batch purchases decreased slightly. The new - season apples have gradually entered the fruit - setting period. The fruit - setting situation in the western region is differentiated, with poor fruit - setting in some producing areas, while the overall fruit - setting in Shandong is okay. In the future, apples are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend based on low inventory and growth impacts. [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly View - The overall sales speed of apples slowed down slightly after the May Day holiday, the price was stable, and high - cost - effective supply was strong. New - season apples entered the fruit - setting period with different situations in different regions. Apples are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. [3] 2. Market Review - This week, the main apple contract fluctuated at a high level. The apple basis was 263 yuan, an increase of 67 yuan compared with last week. [6] 3. Apple Wholesale Market Price Trend - As of May 9, 2025, the wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.44 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from last week; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 8.96 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg from last week. Recently, the spot price of Fuji apples has been strong. [12] 4. Main Apple Producing Areas - In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade striped apples was 4.00 - 4.50 yuan/jin, etc. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the price of orchard - owner general - grade apples starting from 70 was 4.3 - 4.5 yuan/jin, etc. [17] 5. Cold Storage Situation Analysis - As of May 14, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 1.951 billion kg, a decrease of 337.6 million kg from last week. The inventory was still at a low level in the past five years. [19] 6. Sales Area Market Summary - In the South China market, the number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong Chalong market decreased. The daily average number of trucks arriving during the week was about 30. The sales were smooth during the May Day holiday and slowed down slightly after the holiday. The market price of Luochuan 80 late - season Fuji apples was 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin, etc. [24] 7. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants was 0.9 yuan/jin, the same as last week. [28] 8. Substitute Price Analysis - As of the 19th week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.82 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.25 yuan/kg compared with the 17th week. The average wholesale prices of bananas, Kyoho grapes, and Fuji apples increased by 0.01 yuan/kg, 0.89 yuan/kg, and 0.22 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 17th week. The average wholesale prices of watermelons and pineapples decreased by 0.28 yuan/kg and 0.06 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 17th week. [33]

玻璃：现货降价去库 盘面或将下破 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/5/19 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 01 投资策略：震荡偏弱 主要逻辑 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货弱势运行，09合约周五日内触及1000点附近。供给方面，上周一条产线点火复产，日熔量小幅 回升。全国厂家库存维持高位并小幅增长，增量主要来自于东北和华中地区，其余地区库存变化不大。华北京津唐市场周内成 交略好，部分库存小幅下降，但沙河成交情况一般，厂家与贸易商库存僵持不变。煤炭成本继续下降，但上周华北地区现货普 遍降价，煤制气利润小幅下滑。需求方面，主产地成交依旧疲软，现货降价带动部分下游提货，但多数深加工订单无增量迹象。 纯碱方面，近期检修产能较多，接下来进入传统检修季，市场情绪对盘面存在支撑，考虑到库存仍在高位，纯碱短期观望为宜。 后市展望：梅雨季到来前，厂商去库意愿较强，以价换量策略下，现货价格重心进一步下滑的可能性较大。前期旺季需求 尚且一般，目前淡季来临对需求悲观看待。 ...

铝周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 ◆库存： ◆策略建议： 沪铝：建议观望为主。 氧化铝：建议观望为主。 2025-05-19 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 周度观点 近日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题有进一步升级，推动氧化铝价格大涨，但具体影响有待评估。氧化铝运行产能周度环 比增加10万吨至8685万吨，全国氧化铝库存324.6万吨，周度环比减少4.2万吨。氧化铝企业检修减产和主动压产仍在继续，市场 处于投产、复产、减产交织状态。山东地区某氧化铝企业150万吨氢氧化铝项目、广西地区某氧化铝企业二期200万吨、北方某大 型氧化铝企业二期两条共320万吨逐步贡献氧化铝产量。需要注意的是，氧化铝企业集中减产及检修，带来库存下降和阶段性提货 困难，贸易商及部分下游对现货需求量增加，近期氧化铝现货价格企稳反弹。电解铝运行产能4412.4万吨，周度环比增加0.5万吨。 四川省内铝企复产基本完成，广元弘昌晟预计本月满产；贵州安顺铝厂剩余6万吨产能仍在复产 ...

碳酸锂周报 成本中枢下移，价格延续弱势 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/5/19 01 周度观点 ⚫ 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，4月产量环比减少9%至71652吨。本周碳酸锂产量环比减少205吨至15843吨，3月碳酸锂产量环比增加 24%至78730吨，锂盐厂复产放量较多。近期皮尔巴拉矿业将2025财年的锂精矿生产指导产量下调至70万-74万吨，Bald Hill选矿厂 计划于2024年12月初暂时停止运营。海外进口方面，2025年3月中国锂矿石进口数量为53.45万吨，环比减少6%。其中从澳大利亚 进口30.8万吨，环比增加33%，自津巴布韦进口5.8万吨，环比减少40%，自尼日利亚进口8.5万吨，环比增加83%。3月碳酸锂进口 量为1.81万吨，同比减少5%，自智利进口碳酸锂12718吨，占比70%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比下跌，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成本压力较大 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 19 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆豆粕： ...

2025-5-19 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 铜周报：中美关税降温，铜价走势仍强 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 上周沪铜偏强震荡，截至上周五收至78140元/吨，周涨幅0.89%。旺季转淡，库存低位累库，对铜价的支撑作用减弱。中美日内 瓦经贸会谈联合声明互降关税，同时美国通胀降温，美联储降息概率加大，整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖，对铜价有所提振。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 24-03-20 24-03-28 24-04-09 24-04-17 24-04-25 24-05-08 24-05-16 24-05-24 24-06-03 24-06-12 24-06-20 24-06-28 24-07-08 24-07-16 24-07-24 24-08-01 24 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the first half of May, the global oil market experienced significant events, and domestic oil prices first declined and then rebounded, with continued differentiation among varieties. The short - term domestic oil market will correct, constrained by factors such as the slump in international crude oil and US soybean oil prices and the expectation of improved supply. However, the macro - improvement brought about by the warming of Sino - US relations and the positive impact of the USDA May report limit the decline. In the medium - to - long term, the increase in the arrival volume of soybeans and palm oil in the second quarter will drag the overall oil market down, and it will stop falling and rebound in the third quarter due to factors such as the decrease in the sown area of new soybean and rapeseed crops in North America and possible weather speculation[1][2][5]. - For trading strategies, the short - term rebound of bean, palm, and rapeseed oil contracts for September delivery is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up or short - sell after the rebound ends. For arbitrage, the general trend of the widening spread between bean - palm and rapeseed - palm oil contracts for September delivery remains unchanged, but the process of upward repair of the spread will not be smooth, and it is recommended to enter the market in a rolling manner on dips[3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Palm Oil - Short - term: The seasonal production increase season will drive the accumulation of inventory in the producing areas and open the window for domestic purchases. Under the simultaneous improvement of supply and demand at home and abroad, the palm oil contract for September delivery is likely to decline in the second quarter. However, factors such as the possible improvement in export demand after the price decline in the producing areas, the disturbance on the international crude oil and macro - sides will intensify the fluctuations during the decline[6]. - Malaysia: In April, Malaysia's palm oil production and demand both increased, but the production increase of 21.52% was much larger than the export increase of 9.62%, resulting in a continued rise in the ending inventory to 1870000 tons, higher than market expectations. In the next few months, the production is expected to increase, and the SSPOMA data shows that the production from May 1 - 10 increased by 22.31% month - on - month. After the price decline, export demand is expected to improve, and the strong purchasing willingness of major importing countries may slow down the inventory accumulation speed[7]. - Indonesia: In February, production decreased slightly month - on - month, but exports increased significantly, and the ending inventory dropped to 4140000 tons. From March to April, due to factors such as Ramadan, the rainy season, and the transfer of export demand from Malaysia, the supply was weak and demand was strong, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The precipitation in 2024 may affect the production recovery from May to July 2025, but the abundant precipitation from October to December 2024 is beneficial for the production increase in the third quarter of 2025. However, the B40 plan and the increase in palm oil exports may prevent smooth inventory accumulation[9]. - China: In April, the domestic palm oil market continued to be in a state of weak supply and demand, with inventory remaining below 400000 tons. After the price decline in late April, the import profit improved significantly, and a large number of new purchases were made from late April to early May. It is estimated that the arrival volume from May to July will be 228000, 228000, and 12000 tons respectively, and the inventory is expected to stop falling and rebound from May[13]. - Medium - to - long term: Until October 2025 is the traditional production increase season for palm oil. The continuous production increase will put pressure on prices in the second and third quarters. After that, as the producing areas enter the seasonal production decline season, prices will strengthen again[16]. Soybean Oil - Short - term: The domestic soybean oil fundamentals are still weak. Although factors such as the improvement of macro - sentiment, the positive impact of the USDA May report, and the favorable news of the US biodiesel policy stimulate a short - term rebound, the large - scale arrival of South American soybeans from May to July and the normal weather in the early sowing period of new US soybean crops limit the rebound height, and the overall trend is weak and volatile, with the domestic market weaker than the international market[17]. - South America: The 24/25 soybean harvest in South America is a foregone conclusion. The combined output of Brazil and Argentina is 218 million tons, an increase of 15.29 million tons year - on - year. The export data of soybeans and soybean products in 2025 have also increased significantly. The supply pressure in the second quarter is large, and the decline in the basis of Brazilian soybeans has weakened the cost support for domestic soybean oil[18]. - US: The USDA May report estimates that the sown area of new US soybean crops in the 25/26 season will decrease by 4.13% year - on - year, and the supply - demand situation will gradually change from loose to tight. However, it is still in the early sowing period, and there is uncertainty. In the short term, there is rainfall in the Midwest in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which is beneficial for sowing, and there is no opportunity for weather speculation[21]. - Policy: The future development of the US biofuel policy and Sino - US tariff issues needs attention. The market expects an increase in the biodiesel blending volume in 2026, but the actual blending target is uncertain. The extension of the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy is also uncertain. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs has a limited impact on soybean purchases in the second quarter but may affect the market in the fourth quarter[22][24]. - China: The domestic soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to reach about 10 million tons per month on average. The soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 654400 tons, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future[26]. - Medium - to - long term: In the third and fourth quarters, the selling pressure of Brazilian soybeans will gradually ease. Possible weather speculation in North America and the possible difficulty in importing US soybeans if the Sino - US trade dispute intensifies again will help the long - term soybean oil price to strengthen and raise the price center[28]. Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed oil contract for September delivery has been the strongest among the three oils. Due to China's additional 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal and the ongoing anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the long - term is expected to decline. Coupled with the tight supply - demand situation of old - crop rapeseed in Canada and the possible reduction in new - crop production, rapeseed oil is expected to maintain its strong position. However, without policy support, it is difficult for rapeseed oil to have an independent sharp rise in the second quarter when the overall trend of soybean and palm oil is weak[29]. - Abroad: The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season is very tight, which has supported the continuous strengthening of the rapeseed oil price since late March. The production has decreased, while domestic consumption and exports have increased. The inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped significantly. The sown area of new - crop rapeseed in the 25/26 season is expected to decline, and there is a risk of drought in some areas, which may lead to weather speculation during the sowing period[30]. - China: From January to March, the continuous large - scale import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and the sluggish consumption have led to inventory accumulation. As of May 9, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was as high as 863900 tons. However, due to the additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and the anti - dumping investigation, the far - month rapeseed supply is expected to tighten, which will support the price of rapeseed oil in the third and fourth quarters[31].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 16 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 防守观望 | | | ◆国债： 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： 暂时观望 | | | ◆铁矿石： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆双焦： 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： 建议观望 | | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： 区间交易 | | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： 震荡 | | | ◆纯碱： 观望。 | | | 震荡 ◆烧碱： | | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： 震荡运行 | | | ◆甲醇： 震荡运行 | | | ◆塑料： 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡反弹 | | | ◆苹果： 震荡运行 | | | ◆PTA： 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆鸡蛋： 走势偏弱 | | | ◆玉米： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆豆粕： ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-05-16 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 5 月 16 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.6-15.2 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.6 元/公斤，较 上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；广东 14.9-15.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育 强势进场，部分养殖户预计加快出栏节奏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，猪肉消费转 淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动 进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二 育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能 提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，5-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏 高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险， ...