1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market may continue to fluctuate and differentiate, with investors' sentiment being cautious. The precious metals sector is supported by international gold prices, and its subsequent performance is worth attention. The real - estate industry chain is expected to remain active due to policy incentives. The semiconductor and photovoltaic equipment sectors need to track capacity adjustment and performance improvement. The technology sector fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to closely monitor news and individual stock fundamentals. Overall, there are both opportunities and risks in the market, and investors should make rational decisions and pay attention to position management [7]. - Fundamentally, China's economic slow - recovery trend remains unchanged, with PPI and CPI remaining low and residents' financing demand being weak. The data does not currently support a rapid rise in interest rates. The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy, which supports the bond market. In the fourth quarter, affected by the high base, economic data may weaken periodically. If policies are intensified to strengthen the expectation of monetary easing, the bond market is expected to decline. The current low - inflation environment and policy tone together constitute favorable conditions for the bond market, and subsequent attention should be paid to the marginal changes in economic data and the policy response rhythm [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - **Stock Index Trend Review**: Last week, the A - share market rose overall, with major indices rebounding. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market all showed gains. The STAR Market was particularly outstanding, reflecting the strong momentum of the growth - style sector. The daily average trading volume of A - shares last week was about trillions of yuan, slightly lower than the previous week. The growth - style sector led the market rebound, and the change in trading volume reflected the dynamics of market trading activity [7]. - **Core Viewpoints**: The short - term market may continue to fluctuate and differentiate, and investors' sentiment is cautious. The precious metals sector is supported by international gold prices, and the real - estate industry chain is expected to be active. The semiconductor and photovoltaic equipment sectors need to track capacity adjustment and performance improvement. The technology sector fluctuates greatly, and investors should make rational decisions and pay attention to position management [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the long - term trend line last Thursday, forming a "Jiao Long Chu Hai" pattern, indicating a significant increase in short - term bullish momentum and a shift from a cautious to a positive market pattern [7]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - **Treasury Bond Trend Review**: Last week, there was a net capital withdrawal of 100 million yuan. The bond market fluctuated sharply due to the new regulations on public fund redemption fees and tax - exemption policy rumors. The yields of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds exceeded previous highs, and then recovered after the central bank's news of restarting treasury bond trading. On the evening of a certain day, after the release of credit data, the yield of a certain - year treasury bond decreased slightly, while the yields of other - year and ultra - long - term treasury bonds increased [8]. - **Core Viewpoints**: China's economic slow - recovery trend remains unchanged, and the central bank's moderately loose monetary policy supports the bond market. In the fourth quarter, economic data may weaken periodically, and if policies are intensified, the bond market may decline. Attention should be paid to economic data and policy responses [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The K - line of the T contract oscillated upward, closing with a positive line. The MACD yellow and white lines were intertwined, and the increment of the green shadow decreased marginally. The three tracks of the BOLL line still maintained a downward - opening pattern [8]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Wait patiently for a clear trend before operating [8]. 3.3 Key Data Tracking - **PMI**: In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal changes. Both supply and demand weakened. The upstream non - ferrous and steel industries improved, while the downstream export chain was suppressed [12]. - **Inflation**: In a certain month, the year - on - year CPI was flat, and the month - on - month CPI rose by 0.4%. The year - on - year PPI decreased by 3.6%, and the month - on - month PPI decreased by 0.2%. There were positive changes in prices, but the year - on - year CPI and PPI were still low [15]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In a certain month, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value fell to 5.7%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index fell to 5.8%. The decline in the industrial added value growth rate was mainly due to the export chain, with significant declines in the year - on - year growth rates of export - oriented industries such as automobiles, electronics, textiles, and electrical machinery [18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In a certain month, the estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative to - 5.2%. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing, narrow - sense infrastructure, and real - estate investment declined. The reasons for the negative growth of fixed - asset investment were complex, including short - term factors such as extreme weather and statistical method misalignment, medium - term factors such as export expectation decline and policy implementation, and long - term factors such as the shrinking real - estate investment [21]. - **Social Retail Sales**: In a certain month, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales fell to 3.7%, and the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales above the designated size fell to 2.8%. The weakening of social retail sales was mainly reflected in the low - level fluctuation of catering consumption, the weakening of sales of state - subsidized products, and the decline of real - estate - related consumption [24]. - **Social Financing**: In a certain month, the new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were negative. At the end of the month, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale was 9.0%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.8%. The credit data was negative, but the growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 improved with fiscal support. In the future, the base effect and government bonds will still support social financing, but the government bonds in Q4 will face a year - on - year decrease, and the growth rate of social financing may peak and decline. There is still a window for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, and attention should be paid to the implementation of new policy - based financial tools and the possibility of new government bond quotas [27]. - **Imports and Exports**: In a certain month, China's exports were 321.78 billion US dollars, imports were 223.54 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars. The import and export performance in this month was significantly better than market expectations, mainly due to the "rush" characteristic under the threat of the US government to impose tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Semiconductor - related enterprises accelerated inventory replenishment, and domestic enterprises accelerated the import of pharmaceutical materials and products [30]. - **Key Points to Watch This Week**: This week, attention should be paid to the initial jobless claims in the US on a certain day, the federal funds target rate, the refinery utilization rate and capacity utilization rate on a certain day, the crude oil inventory and strategic reserve inventory on a certain day, and the new housing starts (private housing) in a certain month in the US [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is experiencing intense supply - demand competition and is expected to trade in a range. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season has arrived, with downstream polyolefin operating rates improving month - on - month, especially in the agricultural film sector. However, due to supply pressure and weakening crude oil prices, polyolefin prices have been declining. Terminal demand is still improving, and there is an expectation of price increase in the future. It is expected that the LL main contract will trade between 7200 - 7500, the PP will trade between 6900 - 7200, and the LP spread will widen [8]. - The supply - demand contradiction in plastics has eased, and there is strong support at the bottom. For PP, the upward trend faces significant pressure, and it is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short term [8][9][47]. Summary by Directory Plastic 1. Market Review - On September 12, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7169 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05%. The average prices of LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE in South China all decreased slightly. The LLDPE South China basis widened, and the 9 - 1 month spread narrowed [10]. 2. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: On September 12, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 12 yuan/ton (unchanged), the 5 - 9 month spread was 131 yuan/ton (+40), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 119 yuan/ton (-40) [18]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various types of plastics in different regions showed different degrees of decline [19][20]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $62.11 per barrel, up $0.14 from last week, and Brent crude oil closed at $66.88 per barrel, up $1.21 from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 220 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 931 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [26]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of polyethylene production in China this week was 78.04%, down 2.51 percentage points from last week, and the weekly output was 61.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.11%. The maintenance loss this week was 14.62 tons, an increase of 2.29 tons from last week [30]. - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 15 projects are planned to be put into production in 2025, with a total capacity of 613 tons [33]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' devices are under maintenance, and the maintenance time of some devices is uncertain [34]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic agricultural films this week was 24.12%, up 3.94% from last week; the operating rate of PE packaging films was 51.30%, up 0.82% from last week, and the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.67%, up 1.34% from last week [36]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear films is the highest, accounting for 32.8%, and the difference from the annual average level is 2.7%. The difference between low - pressure injection molding and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 8.5%, and the difference from the annual average level is 3.7% [41]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.03 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04% [42]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,525 lots, an increase of 4,262 lots from last week [45]. PP 1. Market Review - On September 12, the closing price of the PP main contract was 6913 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton from last week. The prices of various PP products across the country also decreased [48][51]. 2. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of PP granules, PP powder, PE, PVC powder, PVC paste, and PS all showed different degrees of change compared with the previous period [53]. - **Basis**: On September 12, the spot price of PP reported by Shengyi was 7106.67 yuan/ton (-0.09%). The PP basis was 194 yuan/ton (+41), and the basis widened. The 9 - 1 month spread was - 126 yuan/ton (-14), and the month spread narrowed [55]. - **Month - spread**: On September 12, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 23 yuan/ton (-8), the 5 - 9 month spread was 149 yuan/ton (+22), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 126 yuan/ton (-14) [64]. - **Cost**: The same as the cost data of plastics, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices increased, and the price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port decreased [66]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 322.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.84 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PP was 490.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.73 yuan/ton from last week [70]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 76.83%, down 3.08 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP granules was 78.67 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.35%, and the weekly output of PP powder was 5.99 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87% [73]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of various enterprises are under maintenance, and the maintenance time of some devices is uncertain [77]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate this week was 50.86% (+0.63). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 43.10% (+0.40), the operating rate of BOPP was 61.55% (+0.12%), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.06% (+0.08%), and the operating rate of pipes was 36.67% (+0.17%) [79]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the PP import profit was - 500.86 US dollars/ton, an increase of 83.04 US dollars/ton compared with last week, and the export profit was - 3.60 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.40 US dollars/ton compared with last week [84]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic PP inventory was 57.51 tons (-1.17%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 0.99% month - on - month; the inventory of traders increased by 4.97% month - on - month; and the port inventory increased by 0.68% month - on - month. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises was 1026.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.30%, and the BOPP raw material inventory was 9.52 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.25% [88][92]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On September 12, the number of PP warehouse receipts was 13,706 lots, a decrease of 43 lots from last week [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is expected to fluctuate, with a long - term upward trend [3][5] Core Viewpoints - Short - and medium - term, cotton prices may rebound from September 15th to October 15th and then decline due to increased supply and hedging pressure. The CF2601 futures price will range from 13,300 to 14,500. Long - term, cotton prices are expected to rise due to potential domestic supply - demand tightness, global supply - demand balance, and favorable macro - policies [5]. - Cotton yarn prices are expected to strengthen in the near term due to the approaching consumption season and the expected mild increase in cotton prices [7]. Summaries by Directory 01. Weekly View - Cotton - Short - and medium - term, new cotton purchase is likely to be stable. Prices may rebound from September 15th to October 15th and then decline. The CF2601 futures price will range from 13,300 to 14,500. Long - term, prices are expected to rise due to potential supply - demand tightness and favorable policies [5]. 02. Weekly View - Cotton Yarn - This week, Zhengzhou cotton and cotton yarn markets fluctuated. The cotton yarn market had average trading, with low - count yarns performing better. Inner - region spinning mills are still in cash - flow losses. Prices are expected to strengthen in the near term [7]. 03. Market Review - Cotton market: Zhengzhou cotton was weak. Many cotton merchants have low inventories, and some old cotton remains unsold. Spinners purchase cotton based on rigid demand, waiting for new cotton purchase guidance. New cotton output is expected to increase, bringing long - term pressure. - Cotton yarn market: Trading was average, worse than previous years. Low - count yarns performed better. Inner - region spinning mills are in cash - flow losses and lack confidence [11]. 04. International Macroeconomics - The US released a series of economic data, including manufacturing PMI, employment, trade, and inflation data. The eurozone also released data on unemployment, inflation, and GDP [12]. 05. Domestic Macroeconomics - China released data on foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2, social financing, and new RMB loans [14]. 06. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 and 2024/25 cotton seasons, global cotton supply, consumption, and trade volume have different adjustments, and the ending inventory has decreased [15]. 07. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, total supply decreased, total demand increased, and ending inventory decreased. In the 2025/26 season, total supply decreased, total demand was stable, and ending inventory decreased [20]. 08. US Cotton Exports - As of September 4, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed 882,000 tons of cotton exports for the 2025/26 season, with a shipment rate of 18.11%. China had signed 16,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 2.30% [23]. 09. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - As of July 31, industrial and commercial inventories totaled 308.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 497,000 tons. As of August 15, they totaled 274.44 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from July [26]. 10. July Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports - In July 2025, China's cotton imports were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. Cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [29]. 11. August Cotton Yarn Production and Sales - In August, the cotton yarn market improved. Production was 424,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. The cumulative production from January to August was 3.428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [33]. 12. US Cotton Growth - As of September 7, the boll - setting rate was 97%, the boll - opening rate was 40%, the harvesting rate was 8%, and the good - quality rate was 54%. Growth was accelerating, and the expected output was higher than the USDA forecast [36]. 13. US Cotton Weather - As of September 9, the drought index in the US cotton - growing area was rising but still lower than the five - year average. Cotton growth was accelerating [39]. 14. Xinjiang Cotton Growth - As of September 8, the boll - opening rate in Xinjiang was 47.5%. Northern Xinjiang will start machine - harvesting around September 20, and southern Xinjiang's hand - picked cotton is being harvested [41]. 15. Textile Industry Inventory - In July, the textile industry's inventory was 402.01 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.12% and a year - on - year increase of 0.49% [42]. 16. Domestic Demand - In July 2025, social consumer goods retail sales were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Clothing and textile retail sales were 96.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [47]. 17. External Demand - In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% [50]. 18. US Clothing Retail Sales in June 2025 - In June 2025, US clothing and accessory retail sales were 26.342 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 3.88% [53]. 19. US Cotton Product Imports in June - In June 2025, US cotton product imports were 1.357 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.47%. Textile and clothing imports were 8.564 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.45% [57]. 20. Warehouse Receipts - As of September 12, the number of warehouse receipts was 5,017, a decrease of 142 from last week [60]. 21. Non - Commercial Positions - As of September 9, the non - commercial net long positions in ICE cotton futures decreased [63]. 22. Spinning Mill Load - As of September 12, the load index of pure cotton spinning mills was 64.5, unchanged from last week [66]. 23. Weaving Mill Load - As of September 12, the load index of all - cotton grey fabric mills increased, and the yarn load continued to recover [70]. 24. Industry Chain Inventory - Textile enterprises' cotton, cotton yarn, and all - cotton grey fabric inventories decreased, indicating market improvement [74]. 25. Industry Chain Profit - The profit of cotton yarn improved slightly. Inner - region spinning mills' C32S cash - flow loss was about 300 yuan/ton [80]. 26. Basis - The basis remained high. The basis of pre - sold new cotton was 800 - 1000 yuan/ton [81]. 27. Domestic - Foreign Cotton Price Spread - Currently, domestic cotton is stronger than foreign cotton. The situation may change in November - December [84]. 28. Inter - Month Spread - The 11 - 1 month spread was - 150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short 11 - month and long 1 - month contracts [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report predicts that both apples and red dates will experience an oscillating rebound. For apples, as new fruits are expected to enter the market, there will be some pressure on apple prices in the future, and the prices may show limited upward momentum and undergo oscillating adjustments. For red dates, with the expectation of new fruit listings, the prices will mainly oscillate and adjust in the near future [3][7][10][44]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple 1. Weekly View This week, the supply of mid - season apples is increasing. The overall quality of Hongqian Fuji in the western region is acceptable, but the color and redness are average due to long - term rainfall and short sunshine. The price of high - quality goods remains firm. In Shandong, the inventory of apples is being sold at a fair pace, and the price of fruit farmers' goods is stable. The quality of newly traded Hongjiangjun apples in Shandong is poor. In the sales area, the digestion speed is stable, but the profit of merchants is limited due to the high purchase price of early - maturing Fuji. With the expectation of new fruit listings, there is pressure on apple prices, and they may show limited upward movement and oscillate [10]. 2. Market Review This week, the main apple futures contract oscillated weakly. The apple basis was 313 yuan, an increase of 72 yuan compared to last week [13]. 3. Apple Wholesale Market Price Trend As of September 12, 2025, the wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.76 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week, and the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.38 yuan/kg, also unchanged from last week. Recently, the spot price of Fuji apples has been oscillating [18]. 4. Main Apple Producing Areas In Shandong, the prices of different grades of apples vary. The early - maturing varieties are mainly cream Hongjiangjun, with a good supply. In Shaanxi, the prices of early - maturing Fuji in different regions also vary, with prices determined by quality [23]. 5. Cold Storage Analysis As of September 10, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the main producing areas was 209,100 tons, a decrease of 64,400 tons compared to last week. The inventory sales speed in Shandong has slightly accelerated [25]. 6. Sales Area Market Summary In the South China market, the number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong Chalong market has slightly increased. The market is still dominated by Fuji apples, and the early - maturing varieties are selling well, but the merchants' profit is average, and the terminal sales speed is not fast [30]. 7. Apple Storage Profit Analysis In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.3 yuan/jin, unchanged from last week [33]. 8. Substitute Price Analysis As of the 37th week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six types of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 6.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg compared to the 36th week. The prices of different fruits have fluctuated, while the average wholesale price of Fuji apples remained unchanged from last week [38]. Red Dates 1. Weekly View This week, the temperature in the main producing areas of Xinjiang grey dates is between 15°C and 31°C, and the jujube trees have entered the sugar - increasing stage. There may be light rain in mid - September, and attention should be paid to the actual rainfall and jujube fruit quality. In the sales area, the daily arrival of goods is about 2 trucks, and the price of high - quality goods is strong. The average price of special - grade and first - grade red dates in Hebei has decreased compared to last week. With the expectation of new fruit listings, the price of red dates will mainly oscillate and adjust in the near future [44]. 2. Market Review The temperature in the main producing areas of Xinjiang grey dates is between 15°C and 31°C, and the jujube trees have entered the sugar - increasing stage. There may be light rain in mid - September, and attention should be paid to the actual rainfall and jujube fruit quality. The arrival of goods in the sales area is small, and the price of high - quality goods is strong. The average price of special - grade and first - grade red dates in Hebei has decreased compared to last week. With the approaching of cooling and rainfall in mid - September, attention should be paid to the weather changes and jujube fruit growth [48]. 3. Spot Price Trend In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, the arrival of goods has decreased, the purchase and sales atmosphere is average, and the spot price has risen first and then fallen. In the Henan market, the spot price of red dates has remained stable, and downstream merchants are purchasing as needed. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, the arrival of goods has decreased, and the price of high - quality goods has increased [51]. 4. Inventory Data According to the survey data of Mysteel Agricultural Products, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9,321 tons, a decrease of 89 tons compared to last week, a decrease of 0.95% month - on - month and an increase of 78.32% year - on - year. The arrival of goods in the sales area is small, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, and the market is in a state of seeking a direction in dynamic balance [53]. 5. Sales Area Market Profit Analysis The average purchase price of grey dates in the main producing areas of Xinjiang is 5.33 yuan/kg, the price of first - grade finished products in the Hebei sales area is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg, and the freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 460 - 480 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 2.51 yuan/kg [56].

Report Overview - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: September 15, 2025 [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week's carbonate lithium production increased by 250 tons to 21,000 tons, and August production increased by 7.8% to 92,380 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine will be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for mineral right transfer review, affecting supply. In Q1, Australian mines achieved cost control, with limited further cost - reduction space. In July 2025, China's lithium ore imports were 751,000 tons, a 30.3% month - on - month increase. The top three import countries were Australia, Nigeria, and South Africa. The import volume of carbonate lithium in July was 14,000 tons, a 22% month - on - month decrease [5]. - Demand side: The overall production schedule in September increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increasing by 8% month - on - month. In August, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a 4.4% month - on - month increase and a 37.3% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 22.6 GWh, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease but a 23.9% year - on - year increase. Sales were 134.5 GWh, a 5.7% month - on - month increase and a 45.6% year - on - year increase [6]. - Price outlook: It is expected that the import of South American lithium salts will supplement supply. The terminal demand for energy storage is good. The cost center has shifted upward. It is expected that the short - term price of carbonate lithium will be supported, but it will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode material factories [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Zhoudu Viewpoint (Weekly Viewpoint) - **Supply situation**: The production volume, mine shutdown, mineral right review, and import volume of lithium ore and carbonate lithium are as described above. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week, and some manufacturers using外购 lithium ore for carbonate lithium production faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. - **Demand situation**: The September production schedule increased, and the production, export, and sales data of power and other batteries in August are as mentioned. The new energy vehicle market in China is expected to be supported by policies [6]. - **Inventory situation**: This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking state, with factory inventory increasing by 360 tons, market inventory decreasing by 2,663 tons, and futures inventory increasing by 1,994 tons [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode material factories [6]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - **Price data**: It includes the historical prices of carbonate lithium (such as Shanghai - colored spot tax - included average price, average price of 99.2% industrial - grade carbonate lithium), lithium spodumene concentrate, and related battery materials like average price of lithium iron phosphate for power use, average price of NCA - type ternary materials [9][18][21]. - **Production data**: It involves the weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, the monthly production of power batteries, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials in August 2024 (salt lake 21.56%, lithium mica 23.05%, lithium spodumene 43.87%), and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [5][10][12][25]. - **Import data**: It contains the import volume of lithium spodumene and the import volume of lithium ore from different countries in July 2025 [5][39]. - **Inventory data**: It consists of the weekly and monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, and the inventory of smelters and downstream [14][19][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the weekly situation of the feed and breeding industry, including the markets of pigs, eggs, and corn, and provides corresponding strategy suggestions based on the supply - demand, cost, and other factors of each variety [4][5][6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Feed and Breeding View Summary - **Pigs**: Supply growth suppresses prices, and the futures price can be short - sold on rebounds. In the short term, policy regulation and pre - holiday stocking expectations may support prices, but the large supply will limit the upside. In the long term, the supply before May next year will increase, and prices will still be under pressure [4]. - **Eggs**: The game between supply and demand intensifies, and it is necessary to wait for spot guidance. In the short term, cold - storage eggs may limit price increases, and in the long term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate may slow down [5]. - **Corn**: During the new crop listing period, the futures price rebound is under pressure. Currently, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under seasonal pressure. In the long term, the planting is stable, but the cost support has shifted down [6]. 2. Variety Industry Data Analysis Pigs - **Weekly Market Review**: As of September 12, the national spot price was 13.26 yuan/kg, down 0.46 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2511 was 13255 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 11 - contract was 215 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton from last week [4]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The average weekly slaughter weight increased, the fat - standard price difference widened, the daily average slaughter rate and slaughter volume decreased first and then increased, the cold - storage inventory rate increased slightly, the pig - grain ratio decreased, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets decreased, and the number of live - pig warehouse receipts decreased [12]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of breeding sows increased steadily from May to November 2024, decreased slightly in December 2024 and January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance improved. The supply of live pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September [15]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the 11 and 01 contracts, take rolling stop - profit on short positions and add short positions on rebounds. The 05 and 03 contracts are generally weak, and the 03 contract is weaker. The 07 contract is relatively strong. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4]. Eggs - **Weekly Market Review**: As of September 12, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.58 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.61 yuan/jin, up 0.35 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main 2511 contract was 3040 yuan/500 kg, up 34 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis was 230 yuan/500 kg, up 306 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The price of eggs increased, the utilization rate of hatching eggs was stable, the number of culled chickens decreased, the egg - chick price decreased, the production and circulation inventories decreased, and the profit of egg - chicken farming improved [60]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The number of newly - laid hens in September is relatively high, and the number of culled chickens has slowed down. The overall supply is relatively sufficient. In the long term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate may slow down [83]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For non - holders, wait for spot guidance. For short positions, pay attention to the pressure level of 3100 - 3150. The 12 and 01 contracts are mainly in a wide - range shock [83]. Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: As of September 12, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main 2511 contract was 2197 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis was 113 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton from last Friday [6]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The price of corn in some areas increased, the inventory of old - crop corn was limited, the new - crop corn in some areas of the Northeast was gradually listed, the import volume decreased, the demand for feed and deep - processing was weak, and the inventory decreased [90]. - **Key Data Tracking**: In the next 10 days, precipitation in some areas is expected to be higher than normal, which may have an impact on corn production. The overall growth of new - season corn is suitable, but the cost support has shifted down [100]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the 11 - contract, wait for rebounds to short - sell, pay attention to the pressure level of 2220 - 2250, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [100].

| | | 本周铜价区间上升走强。美国8月CPI及核心CPI录得增长，但增幅略符合市场预期，而美国当周初请失业金人数大幅增加，8月PPI公布值亦 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 远低于预期，美联储9月降息预期愈发强烈，美元走弱利好铜价。国内，随着旺季的来临，市场仍维持刚需采买，但整体需求有所提升；供 | | | | 高位震荡趋强 | 应端随着高检修期的到来，市场有逐步收紧预期；近期低价进口铜仍带来影响，市场升水依然承压；国内社会库存平稳，LME铜库存继续下 | 逢低持多 | | 铜 | 79500-82500 | 滑且现货贴水较此前收窄。近期市场畏高情绪持续升温，消费难有明显好转，金九消费成色有待验证，不过国内消费复苏的乐观前景叠加9 | 滚动交易 | | | | 月美联储降息的预期，铜价仍有望维持偏强走势。技术面看，伦铜重回万元大关，或有望测试前高，沪铜主力合约仓量双增，整体保持高 | | | | | 位偏强震荡，短期或测试82500关口。 | | | | 高位突破上行 | 几内亚散货矿主流成交价格环比持平于75美元/干吨。几内亚雨季到来，铝土矿开采和运输受到影响，铝 ...

长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-09-15 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 02 油脂：弱现实强预期，延续高位震荡 豆粕：中美会谈预期下，价格区间运行 目 录 豆粕：中美会谈预期下，价格区间运行 01 01 豆粕：中美会谈预期下，价格区间运行 资料来源：同花顺 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止9月12日，华东现货报价2980元/吨，周度报价上涨10元/吨；M2601合约收盘至3079元/吨，周度上涨12元/吨；基差报价01-110 元/吨，基差价格下跌30元/吨。周度豆粕价格延续区间运行，底部成本支撑下价格下跌有限，但上涨受制于供应充裕以及10月中美领导人会谈， 贸易预期改善，价格冲高回落，短期预计延续区间震荡走势；油厂涨库及下游提货放缓，基差偏弱运行。 ◆ 供应端：USDA9月供需报告上调美豆种植面积至8110万英亩，单产下调至53.5蒲/英亩，结转库存上调至3亿蒲，供需边际转松，但美豆库销比 6.89%，供需收紧趋势不变。巴西今年进入播种阶段， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggesting holding a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggesting range trading; bullish on glass, suggesting buying on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, suggesting waiting or buying on dips for short - term trading; bullish on aluminum, suggesting buying on dips after a pull - back; neutral on nickel, suggesting waiting or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggesting range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggesting range trading [1][11][13][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, suggesting range trading; suggesting a short 01 long 05 arbitrage strategy for soda ash [1][22][25][27][30][33][34][37] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggesting range trading; neutral on PTA, suggesting range trading; bullish on apples, suggesting a range - bound and upward - biased trend; bearish on jujubes, suggesting a range - bound and downward - biased trend [1][38][39][40][41] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, suggesting shorting on rallies; neutral on corn, suggesting range trading; neutral on soybean meal, suggesting range trading; bullish on oils, suggesting a high - level range - bound trend with a buying - on - dips strategy [1][42][44][47][49][50] Core Views - The global economic and policy environment, including factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decisions, trade policies, and domestic macro - policies, have a significant impact on various futures markets [11][13][18][22][25][37][43][44][47][50][53][54][55] - Seasonal factors, supply - and - demand fundamentals, and cost factors are important considerations for investment decisions in different futures markets [8][10][11][13][18][22][25][31][39][40][43][44][47][49][50][51][52][53][54][55] - Different futures varieties have different investment strategies based on their specific market conditions, such as range trading, buying on dips, shorting on rallies, and arbitrage strategies [1][5][7][8][9][11][13][15][16][18][19][21][22][24][26][28][30][33][34][36][38][39][40][42][44][46][48][50][55] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - share markets experienced a pull - back after a rally on Friday. Policy support is positive, and it is recommended to rebalance in high - probability areas. Medium - to long - term outlook is bullish, suggesting buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market is gradually recovering from previous adjustments, but investors remain cautious. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Pit - mouth coal price increases have slowed, and the market is in a stalemate. A range - trading strategy is recommended [7][8] - **Rebar**: Futures prices rebounded on Friday. The fundamental supply - and - demand situation is weak in the short term, but traditional demand seasons may bring opportunities. A range - trading strategy is recommended with a focus on support levels [8] - **Glass**: Supply and demand conditions have improved. With the approaching of the traditional peak season and potential positive factors, a buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are rising in a range. With weakening of the US dollar and potential consumption recovery, prices are expected to remain strong. A range - trading or buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is supported, and the production of aluminum is stable. Demand is entering the peak season, and a buying - on - dips strategy or an arbitrage strategy is recommended [13] - **Nickel**: Supply concerns and macro - factors affect prices. In the short term, prices are affected by the macro - environment, and in the long term, supply is in surplus. A shorting - on - rallies strategy is recommended [18] - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to be supported. A range - trading strategy is recommended [18][19] - **Gold and Silver**: Due to weakening US economic data and expectations of interest - rate cuts, prices are expected to have support. A range - trading strategy is recommended [19][20][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Supply is high, demand is mediocre, and exports face challenges. Prices are expected to be range - bound, and key factors such as macro - data and exports should be monitored [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is affected by factors such as spot prices and demand. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and downstream stocking and export conditions should be monitored [25] - **Styrene**: Cost and demand factors influence prices. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and factors such as oil prices and supply - and - demand fundamentals should be monitored [27] - **Rubber**: Overseas raw material prices are falling, and market sentiment is bearish. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and support levels should be monitored [29] - **Urea**: Supply and demand are weak, and inventories are increasing. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be monitored [30][31][33] - **Methanol**: Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Key factors such as coal prices and downstream demand should be monitored [33] - **Polyolefins**: The "Golden September and Silver October" season may boost demand, but supply and cost factors limit price increases. A range - trading strategy is recommended [34][35] - **Soda Ash**: The market is in a tug - of - war between expectations and reality. A short 01 long 05 arbitrage strategy is recommended [37] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - and - demand conditions are improving, but new - crop production may bring downward pressure. Hedging preparations are recommended [38] - **PTA**: Recent inventory reduction is good, but long - term supply increases and weak oil prices may lead to price drops. A range - trading strategy is recommended [39][40] - **Apples**: Early - maturing apples are priced higher than last year, and the market is expected to be range - bound and upward - biased [40] - **Jujubes**: Consumption is weak, and prices are under pressure. A range - bound and downward - biased trend is expected [41] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large in the short term, and prices are under pressure. Policy support may bring some rebounds. A short - selling strategy with stop - profit and potential arbitrage opportunities is recommended [42][43][44] - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are balanced, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as cold - storage egg releases and chicken culling [44] - **Corn**: New - crop supply and cost factors affect prices. A range - trading strategy and an arbitrage strategy are recommended, and factors such as weather and policies should be monitored [45][46][47] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean prices are expected to be stable, and domestic supply - and - demand conditions are changing. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and key factors such as US - China trade relations should be monitored [48][49][50] - **Oils**: Short - term prices are affected by various factors, but support levels exist. A buying - on - dips strategy and an arbitrage strategy are recommended [50][51][52][53][54][55]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Macro and Industry Resonance, Copper Price Maintains a Bullish Pattern [1] Report Date - September 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to maintain a bullish trend due to the increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, which will weaken the US dollar and benefit the copper price. Domestically, with the arrival of the peak season, the market maintains rigid demand purchases, and overall demand has increased. On the supply side, with the arrival of the high - maintenance period, the market is expected to gradually tighten. Although the consumption is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, the optimistic prospect of domestic consumption recovery and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September are expected to support the copper price [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: As of September 12, the copper concentrate import refining fee was -$41.4/ton, a weekly decrease of $0.9/ton, and the port inventory of domestic copper concentrate was 574,000 tons, slightly increasing from a low level. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. In September, the electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease month - on - month due to the maintenance peak of smelters and policy impacts [5]. - **Demand Side**: As of September 11, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 67.53%, a year - on - year decrease of 14.19 percentage points. The high copper price has inhibited consumption. In August, the operating rates of copper strips, copper tubes, and copper foils were 65.87%, 65.70%, and 78.44% respectively. The copper foil operating rate increased due to strong downstream demand [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the SHFE copper inventory was 94,000 tons, a weekly increase of 14.91%. As of September 11, the domestic copper social inventory was 144,300 tons, a weekly increase of 2.63%. As of September 12, the LME copper inventory was 154,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 2.53%. The global copper inventory increased slightly [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The US economic data increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, which is beneficial to the copper price. Domestically, demand has increased, supply is expected to tighten, and the copper price is expected to maintain a bullish trend [6]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro Data Overview**: China's August exports and imports increased year - on - year, CPI decreased year - on - year, PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, and the new social financing scale and loans increased. The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000, and the August CPI was in line with expectations. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged for the second time [14]. - **Industry News Overview**: The US added copper to the critical minerals list, increasing the possibility of tariff hikes in 2027. Peru's July copper production increased by 2% year - on - year, and Chile's July copper production increased slightly. China's copper concentrate imports increased in August, while the imports of unforged copper and copper products decreased. Freeport suspended mining operations in Indonesia, and Panama plans to evaluate the restart of a copper mine [16]. 3. Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: The import supply hit the market, causing the premium to decline. The LME copper remained at a discount, but the discount narrowed, and the New York - London copper spread increased slightly [20]. - **Long and Short Positions at Home and Abroad**: As of September 12, the Shanghai copper futures position decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 5.01% week - on - week. As of September 5, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased by 13.19% week - on - week. As of September 9, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions increased by 7.93% week - on - week [22]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: As of September 12, the copper concentrate import refining fee continued to decline, and the port inventory was at a low level. In August, China's electrolytic copper production had a stable growth rate, and it is expected to decrease in September [31]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of September 11, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises decreased. In August, the operating rates of copper strips, copper tubes, and copper foils showed different trends, with the copper foil operating rate increasing [34]. - **Import and Export**: As of September 12, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper first decreased and then increased. In July, China's refined copper imports increased year - on - year, and in August, the imports of unforged copper and copper products increased year - on - year [38]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the SHFE copper inventory increased, the domestic copper social inventory increased slightly, and the LME copper inventory decreased slightly, with the global copper inventory increasing slightly [41].