Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The urea market is facing continuous inventory accumulation pressure. Although the supply has decreased due to an increase in maintenance devices, the support from compound fertilizer and other industrial demands has weakened. After a short - term improvement in production and sales, there are still pressures. It is expected that the urea price will fluctuate at the bottom, with a reference range of 1550 - 1650 yuan/ton [5]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price fluctuated sideways, rebounding after hitting a new low. On October 17, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1541 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 1.72% [5][8]. - The main - contract basis of urea strengthened. On October 17, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 61 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 83) - (- 59) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea weakened. On October 17, the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 70) - (- 68) yuan/ton [5][10]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 80.23%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 71.33%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points from last week, and the daily average urea output was 18.86 tons. Next week, maintenance devices in Anhui, Shaanxi and other places will gradually resume production, and the domestic urea spot supply will still be relatively sufficient [5][12]. - **Cost**: The demand - side support for anthracite lump coal was weaker, and the pit - mouth lump coal of coal enterprises in some areas was under significant pressure, with coal prices falling. As of October 16, the含税 price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 820 - 900 yuan/ton, with the price center dropping 35 yuan/ton compared to the closing price on September 30 [5][16]. - **Demand**: - Agricultural demand: Nationwide autumn harvest and sowing have begun. Winter wheat has been sown and emerged in most parts of Xinjiang, eastern Qinghai, eastern Gansu, southern Ningxia, Guanzhong in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Tianjin and other places. In Gansu, nearly 80% of winter wheat has been sown, and in Shaanxi, over 10%. Rape has been sown in Zhejiang, Hubei and other places. In Chongqing, over 40% of rape has been sown, and in Hubei, over 30%. The average pre - sales of major urea production enterprises was 3.6 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 94.3%. With the progress of autumn harvest and sowing, agricultural demand moderately increased, and production and sales improved marginally [5][18][21]. - Industrial demand: The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.91 tons, a decrease of 2.59 tons from last week, and the domestic compound fertilizer inventory pressure was slightly relieved, entering a destocking trend [5][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 142.1 tons, an increase of 8.3 tons from last week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Urea port inventory was 74 tons, an increase of 2 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 6294, totaling 12.588 tons [5][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for glass contracts, waiting for a reversal before considering long positions [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day, the expectations of environmental protection and macro - policies in the glass industry cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. The planned ignition within the month and the rising inventory trend suppressed the spot price. The fundamentals are in a weak state without bright spots, and in the absence of macro - policy expectations, the market is prone to fall and difficult to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - **Main Logic**: Last week, glass futures weakened significantly, with the weekly line closing as a medium - sized阴线. There were no changes in production lines last week. After the festival, the futures price declined, and the inventory of manufacturers continued to rise. The downstream procurement willingness was low, and the actual profit was still at a marginal level. The demand from middle - stream processors and downstream was weak, and the orders of processors did not improve. The supply of soda ash was in excess, and the price was under pressure. Technically, the short - side strength increased, and the moving averages were arranged downward, making left - hand trading difficult [3]. - **Operation Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see, waiting for a reversal before considering long positions [3]. 02 Price Review - **Spot Price**: As of October 17, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,180 yuan/ton (- 50) in North China, 1,200 yuan/ton (- 20) in Central China, and 1,310 yuan/ton (- 30) in East China. The prices of some manufacturers also decreased, such as the prices of Shahe Great Wall and other manufacturers [9][10]. - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,095 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan for the week [10]. 03 Basis and Spread - **Soda Ash - Glass Spread**: As of October 17, the futures price of soda ash was 1,209 yuan, and the futures price of glass was 1,095 yuan, with a spread of 114 yuan/ton (+ 81) [11]. - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was 55 yuan/ton (+ 44). - **Contract Spread**: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 spread was - 136 yuan/ton (- 9) [15]. 04 Profit - **Natural Gas Process**: The cost was 1,576 yuan/ton (- 1), and the gross profit was - 266 yuan/ton (- 29). - **Coal - Gas Process**: The cost was 1,185 yuan/ton (+ 21), and the gross profit was - 5 yuan/ton (- 71). - **Petroleum Coke Process**: The cost was 1,090 yuan/ton (- 1), and the gross profit was 110 yuan/ton (- 19) [18]. 05 Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 160,155 tons/day (+ 700), and there were 226 production lines in operation. There were also records of production line cold - repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and conversions [20][22]. 06 Inventory - As of October 18, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,427.6 million weight boxes (+ 145.2). The inventories in North China, Central China, East China, and other regions also changed to varying degrees [25]. 07 Deep - Processing - **Production and Sales Rate**: On October 18, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 73% (- 26%). - **LOW - E Glass**: On October 15, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 43.7% (- 1.5%). - **Order Availability Days**: In mid - October, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.4 days (- 0.1) [28]. 08 Demand - New Energy - In September, China's automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 461,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 480,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.226 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 369,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 417,000 vehicles. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.296 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 57.8% [40]. 09 Demand - Real Estate - In August, China's real - estate completion area was 26.5913 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21%; the new - construction area was 45.9487 million square meters (- 20%); the construction area was 43.7767 million square meters (- 29%); and the commercial - housing sales area was 57.4415 million square meters (- 11%). From October 12 to October 16, the total commercial - housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.16 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year decrease of 42%. In August, the real - estate development investment was 672.942 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20% [47]. 10 Cost - Soda Ash (Price) - **Spot Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. The ex - factory prices of some manufacturers also remained unchanged [49][50][51]. - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,209 yuan/ton (- 31). - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of soda ash in Central China 09 was 91 yuan/ton (+ 31) [54]. 11 Cost - Soda Ash (Profit) - As of last Friday, the profit of soda ash was - 130 yuan/ton (- 53). The cost of the ammonia - alkali method for soda - ash enterprises was 1,330 yuan/ton (+ 33), with a gross profit of - 30 yuan/ton (unchanged); the cost of the co - production method was 1,761 yuan/ton (+ 49) [56][58]. 12 Cost - Soda Ash (Inventory and Warehouse Receipts) - **Inventory**: Last week, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7005 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 40,700 tons), including 940,700 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons) and 759,800 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 20,700 tons). - **Warehouse Receipts**: At the end of last week, the number of soda - ash warehouse receipts on the exchange was 10,773 (+ 3,720). - **Production**: Last week, the domestic soda - ash production was 740,500 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 30,300 tons), including 415,500 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 13,200 tons) and 325,000 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 17,100 tons). The loss was 101,200 tons (a month - on - month increase of 6,100 tons) [66][68][70]. 13 Cost - Soda Ash (Apparent Consumption) - **Apparent Consumption**: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 395,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 122,000 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 304,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,900 tons. - **Production and Sales Rate**: Last week, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 94.5%, a week - on - week increase of 2.27% [73].

黑色：暂时观望为宜 等待会议指引 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-10-20 长江期货股份有限公司产业服务总部 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 核心观点：暂时观望为宜 等待会议指引 品种 行情观点 策略 板块综述：上周黑色板块走势非常分化，双焦价格上涨、钢材铁矿下跌，其中铁矿跌幅超过3%，品种间强弱关系为焦煤>焦炭>螺 纹>热卷>铁矿，一方面，关税阴云再起，大宗商品价格普跌，另一方面，钢材需求同比偏弱，铁矿到港增加致使港口库存大幅回升。 本周重点关注：（1）10月20-23日召开的二十届四中全会，涉及十五五规划；（2）钢材需求与去库情况；（3）关税政策变化，特朗 普在接受福克斯商业频道采访时承认，此前威胁对中国商品加征100%关税的措施"不可持续" 。 | 钢材 | 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电与长流程成本以下，静态估值偏低；驱动方面，宏 | 回落做多，RB2601关注 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 观端，特朗普态度缓和、国内重磅会议召开在即，产业端，上周螺纹需求回升、产量略有下滑， | | | | ...

◆ 基本面分析 几内亚散货矿主流成交价格周度环比下降0.8美元/干吨至72.5美元/干吨。几内亚雨季结束，且氧化铝价格走弱，施压矿价下行。 氧化铝运行产能周度环比下降140万吨至9715万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比增加11.5万吨至401.7万吨。上半年新投产的氧化铝 产能进入稳产状态，但国产矿石供应问题和氧化铝价格低迷的影响下，部分内陆氧化铝企业检修或压产。电解铝运行产能周度环比 下降2万吨至4443.4万吨。山西朔州能源开始对部分电解槽进行停槽技改升级，涉及产能4万吨左右。需求方面，国内铝下游加工 龙头企业开工率周度环比持稳于62.5%。旺季需求表现偏弱，叠加铝价高位，抑制了下游各加工板块开工上升。库存方面，铝锭 社会库存去化幅度较好。再生铸造铝合金方面，废铝流通偏紧、价格高企，而终端需求复苏不及预期，再生铝企业开工率下调。特 朗普关税或是为中美元首10月APEC会晤添加筹码，同时美联储10月降息时点即将来临，在此期间仍然建议逢低布局多单，在关 注关税进展和市场情绪。 ◆ 策略建议 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-10-20 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Since 2020, the annualized hedging costs of stock index futures for the three major stock indices (SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500) have been more significantly affected by stock dividends, especially on the expiration date [2]. - The hedging costs of the far - season contracts of SSE 50 and CSI 300 stock index futures have long been stable around zero, and are slightly higher than the break - even point in most periods. The cost of the far - season contracts of CSI 500 stock index futures also fluctuates around zero, and before 2023, it was overall superior to the contracts of SSE 50 and CSI 300 in terms of return performance, showing relatively better cost - return characteristics [2]. - Based on the prediction for the fourth quarter of 2025, under the current market structure, preferentially allocating hedging tools represented by IC stock index futures may be a better choice for constructing market - neutral strategies [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Introduction - In the practice of the stock market - neutral strategy, although the hedging means of the strategy portfolio have been significantly enriched, stock index futures are still the core hedging tool for constructing market - neutral exposure. The basis structure of stock index futures directly determines the hedging cost of the neutral strategy and affects the final return performance [6]. - The basis of stock index futures can be decomposed into three core driving dimensions: the cost dimension from the time value of funds, the cash - flow dimension from index component stock dividends during the period, and the sentiment and expectation dimension reflecting the balance of market long - and short - side forces. The model is simplified to: Futures price - Index price = Corrected basis - Index dividends during the period [6]. 3.2. Dividend Situations of the Three Major Index Component Stocks 3.2.1. Dividend Point Indices of the Three Major Stock Indices - The dividend behavior of the three major index component stocks has significant seasonal characteristics, with dividend payments highly concentrated from April to September each year, peaking from June to August, especially from June to July [8][12]. - Compared with the market practice before 2020, in recent years, the phenomenon of the three major index component stocks paying dividends in the fourth quarter has increased. Since 2023, the A - share market dividend pattern has shown three new trends: year - end dividends, postponed dividend dates for some companies, and a deeper impact of dividend behavior on stock index and derivatives pricing [9][12]. 3.2.2. Dividend Yield Situations of the Three Major Stock Indices - The dividend yields of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices showed a "V - shaped" trend of first decreasing and then increasing from 2020 to 2024, which is related to the market adjustment from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024. The dividend yield center of the CSI 500 index has shifted down compared with the level before 2020 [13][15]. - The average annual dividend yields of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, representing large - cap blue - chip stocks, are stable in the range of 2% - 3%, while the average dividend yield of the CSI 500 index, representing small - and medium - cap stocks, is relatively low. The dividends from June to July have a significant impact on futures pricing and basis structure [15][16]. 3.3. Annualized Hedging Costs of the Three Major Stock Index Futures 3.3.1. Estimation of Historical Data of Annualized Hedging Costs of the Three Major Stock Index Futures - A simplified model is used to estimate the dividend points of index component stocks and calculate the corrected basis. The annualized hedging costs of the near - month, far - month, near - season, and far - season contracts of the three major stock index futures in the past three years are calculated [18][20]. - The hedging costs of the far - season contracts of SSE 50 and CSI 300 stock index futures are long - term stable around zero and slightly higher than the break - even point, with low historical average hedging costs. Before 2023, the far - season contracts of CSI 500 stock index futures were overall superior to those of SSE 50 and CSI 300 in terms of return performance [20]. - The annualized hedging cost of near - month contracts may show significant peaks, indicating that the basis of stock index futures contracts may fluctuate extremely (deep premium or discount) when approaching the expiration date, which affects the actual cost of roll - over operations and strategy returns [26]. 3.3.2. Prediction of the Performance of Annualized Hedging Costs of the Three Major Stock Index Futures in the Fourth Quarter - From the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, the impact of dividends on the basis of stock index futures and hedging strategies has weakened. The hedging costs of the current IC and IF main contracts are generally positive, providing a favorable window for market - neutral strategies [27][28]. - Based on the closing data on September 22, 2025, the overall hedging costs of the three major stock index futures are relatively low. After considering dividends, most of the hedging costs of IC and IF contracts are positive, especially for IC near - month and far - month contracts. The hedging costs of IH contracts are relatively high and even negative after considering dividends [29][30]. - Currently, market - neutral strategies using IC or IF futures contracts for hedging have relative advantages. IC near - season main contracts have lower hedging costs, while IF far - season contracts have more obvious cost advantages. IH contracts have relatively low cost - performance. Therefore, preferentially allocating hedging tools represented by IC stock index futures may be a better choice [30][31].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - hold off [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal - range trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - hold off [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - cautiously hold long positions on dips, avoid chasing highs; Aluminum - wait for a pullback to go long; Nickel - hold off or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - buy on dips; Silver - range trading [1][10][17] - Energy Chemicals: PVC - oscillate weakly; Caustic soda - oscillate; Soda ash - short on 01 contract; Styrene - oscillate weakly; Rubber - oscillate; Urea - oscillate; Methanol - oscillate; Polyolefins - wide - range oscillation [1][22][32] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - oscillate; PTA - oscillate weakly; Apples - oscillate strongly; Jujubes - oscillate strongly [1][34][36] - Agricultural and Livestock: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range oscillation; Soybean meal - range oscillation; Oils - oscillate strongly [1][38][44] Core Viewpoints - The report provides investment strategies for various futures products based on market analysis, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand dynamics, and international trade situations. It also emphasizes the need to pay attention to key events and data such as policy changes, trade negotiations, and inventory levels [5][7][23] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Index futures: On October 16, A - shares fluctuated, with most stocks falling. Trading volume shrank. Before Sino - US negotiations, the index may continue to oscillate. Medium to long - term, it is bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Futures are divided. The trading theme may revolve around Sino - US relations. It is recommended to hold off for now [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal and rebar: Coking coal prices are volatile due to rain and weak demand. Rebar prices may be weak first and then strong in October, with a focus on the 3000 level for the RB2601 contract [7] - Glass: Some companies raised prices slightly, but shipments were restricted. Supply increased, and demand was weak. It is recommended to hold off and focus on production line changes in Shahe [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Global trade tensions and supply disruptions have affected copper prices. Fundamentals are solid, and prices are expected to remain high - level oscillating. It is advisable to hold long positions on dips [10] - Aluminum: Ore prices declined, and production capacity increased slightly. Demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to go long after a pullback [12] - Nickel: Indonesia's new policy may affect supply. Supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term. It is recommended to hold off or short on rallies [17] - Tin: Supply is tight, and demand is recovering. It is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18][19] - Gold and silver: Due to factors such as delayed non - farm data and expected interest rate cuts, prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after a full pullback [19][20] Energy Chemicals - PVC: High supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract facing pressure at 4800 [23] - Caustic soda: Short - term oscillation, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2380 - 2530 range [24] - Soda ash: Supply is in excess, and prices may decline. Short the 01 contract [32][33] - Styrene: High inventory, weak demand, and expected weak oscillation. Focus on the 6900 resistance level [26] - Rubber: Supply is expected to increase, but raw material prices have a limited downside. It is expected to oscillate, with a focus on the 15000 support level [27][28] - Urea: Supply has increased, and demand is scattered. It is expected to oscillate [29] - Methanol: Supply has recovered, and demand from the main downstream is strong. Inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate [31] - Polyolefins: Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the L2601 contract focusing on 6900 support and the PP2601 contract on 6600 support [30][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Global cotton supply and demand are both increasing, but there is uncertainty between China and the US. It is expected to oscillate with a bearish outlook [34][35] - PTA: Oil prices are weak, and supply - demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the 4350 - 4600 range [35] - Apples: High - quality apples are in high demand, and prices are polarized. It is expected to oscillate strongly [36] - Jujubes: New - season jujubes are about to be harvested. Pay attention to the progress of orchard orders [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: Supply is high in the short - term, and long - term supply remains under pressure. Short on rallies for 01, 03, 05 contracts; be cautious about bottom - fishing for 07, 09 contracts [38][40] - Eggs: Short - term supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Partially take profit on short positions for the 11 contract; short on rallies for 12, 01 contracts [41][42] - Corn: New crops are coming on the market, and the market is expected to be bearish in the short - term. Look for shorting opportunities on rebounds for the 11 contract [43][44] - Soybean meal: Affected by harvest pressure and slow exports, it is expected to oscillate at low levels [44][45] - Oils: Short - term correction is limited. Look for long - entry opportunities after the correction for 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [46][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips for stock indices and holding a wait-and-see stance for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black building materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, and a wait-and-see approach for glass [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Recommend buying on dips for copper and aluminum, a wait-and-see or short-selling approach on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin and silver, and buying on dips for gold [1][10][12] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins to have wide-range oscillations; a short-selling strategy for the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][23][29][30] - Cotton and textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn to oscillate, PTA to have narrow-range oscillations, apples and jujubes to be slightly bullish [1][32][33][34] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Short-selling on rallies for hogs and eggs, corn to have wide-range oscillations, soybean meal to have low-level oscillations, and oils to have limited corrections [1][37][40][43] Core Views - The A-share market showed a strong oscillation on October 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 3900 level. The increase in new social financing and loans in September reflects positive economic signals. Stock indices may continue to oscillate, and are bullish in the medium to long term [5] - The bond market may focus on the Sino-US geopolitical and trade issues before the APEC meeting at the end of the month. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate in the short term [5] - Black building materials are affected by factors such as rainfall, demand, and tariffs. Prices may first weaken and then strengthen in October [7] - Non-ferrous metals are influenced by global trade tensions, supply disruptions, and demand expectations. Copper and aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, while nickel and tin may oscillate [10][12][17] - Energy and chemical products face various challenges such as high supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Most products are expected to oscillate or have a weakening trend [20][21][23] - The cotton and textile industry chain is affected by factors such as global supply and demand, Sino-US relations, and weather conditions. Apples and jujubes may be slightly bullish due to quality and supply issues [32][34][35] - In the agriculture and animal husbandry sector, hogs and eggs are under pressure due to supply and demand imbalances. Corn, soybean meal, and oils are affected by factors such as harvest, trade, and policy, with different trends [37][40][43] Summary by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices oscillated on October 15, with over 4300 stocks rising. The total market turnover was 2.09 trillion yuan, a decrease of 500 billion yuan. The increase in new social financing and loans in September indicates an improvement in economic activities. Stock indices are expected to continue to oscillate and are bullish in the medium to long term [5] - Treasury bond futures closed lower on October 15. The bond market may focus on Sino-US relations before the APEC meeting. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate in the short term [5] Black building materials - Coking coal and rebar are affected by rainfall, demand, and tariffs. Prices may first weaken and then strengthen in October. RB2601 of rebar may have a buying opportunity around 3000 [7] - Glass is affected by factors such as production line resumption, inventory increase, and demand weakness. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the changes in Shahe production lines [8][9] Non-ferrous metals - Copper prices experienced significant fluctuations due to trade tensions and supply disruptions. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and the demand in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips [10] - Aluminum is affected by factors such as bauxite price decline, production capacity increase, and demand seasonality. It is recommended to find low positions to build long positions [12] - Nickel is affected by factors such as RKAB policy adjustment, supply and demand imbalance, and price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or short-sell on rallies [17] - Tin is affected by factors such as supply shortage, demand recovery, and tariff expectations. It is recommended to conduct range trading [17] - Gold and silver prices are supported by factors such as interest rate cut expectations and risk aversion. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after a full correction [18][19] Energy and chemicals - PVC is affected by factors such as high supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract temporarily paying attention to the 4800 pressure [20][21] - Caustic soda is affected by factors such as macro expectations, supply and demand, and export prospects. It is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract temporarily paying attention to the range of 2380-2530 [22][23] - Styrene is affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand, and inventory. It is expected to oscillate weakly, temporarily paying attention to the 6900 pressure [23][24] - Rubber is affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro environment. It is expected to oscillate, temporarily paying attention to the 15000 support [25][26] - Urea is affected by factors such as supply increase, demand dispersion, and inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policy [27] - Methanol is affected by factors such as supply recovery, demand support, and inventory increase. It is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as downstream demand and inventory changes [28][29] - Polyolefins are affected by factors such as supply pressure, weak demand, and cost decline. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the L2601 contract paying attention to the 6900 support and the PP2601 contract paying attention to the 6600 support [29][30] - Soda ash is affected by factors such as oversupply, weak demand, and inventory pressure. It is recommended to maintain a short-selling strategy for the 01 contract [30][31] Cotton and textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are affected by factors such as global supply and demand, Sino-US relations, and price fluctuations. It is expected to oscillate, and the outlook is bearish [32][33] - PTA is affected by factors such as crude oil prices, supply and demand, and inventory accumulation. It is expected to have narrow-range oscillations, paying attention to the range of 4500-4750 [33][34] - Apples are affected by factors such as weather conditions, quality decline, and price increase. It is expected to be slightly bullish [34][35] - Jujubes are affected by factors such as weather conditions, supply and demand, and price stability. It is expected to be slightly bullish [35] Agriculture and animal husbandry - Hogs are affected by factors such as supply increase, demand weakness, and price pressure. It is recommended to short-sell on rallies, with different strategies for different contracts [37][39] - Eggs are affected by factors such as supply and demand balance, price support, and seasonal factors. It is recommended to partially close short positions for the 11 contract and wait for spot price guidance, and wait for rallies to short-sell for the 12 and 01 contracts [40][42] - Corn is affected by factors such as new grain listing, supply and demand balance, and price pressure. It is expected to have wide-range oscillations, with a bearish view on the 11 contract and attention to the 1-5 reverse spread [42][43] - Soybean meal is affected by factors such as harvest pressure, export slowdown, and supply and demand balance. It is expected to have low-level oscillations, paying attention to the 2900 support of the M2601 contract [43][44] - Oils are affected by factors such as macro risks, supply and demand balance, and price fluctuations. It is expected to have limited corrections, with the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil paying attention to the support levels of 8150-8200, 9200-9300, and 9800-9900 respectively [45][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Ranged trading for coking coal and rebar; recommended to wait and see for glass [1][8][9] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Recommended to hold long positions on copper on dips; consider low-level long positions on aluminum; wait and see or short on rallies for nickel; ranged trading for tin; buy on dips for gold; ranged trading for silver [1][11][19] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate; short strategy for soda ash 01 contract [1][21][33] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate with a bearish outlook; PTA is expected to have a narrow-range fluctuation; apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate stronger [1][34][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have a wide-range fluctuation; soybean meal is expected to have a range-bound fluctuation; oils are expected to fluctuate stronger [1][40][48] Core Viewpoints - The stock index market may have wide-range fluctuations in the future due to the change in the macro environment and the impact on the technology sector; the bond market may continue to fluctuate due to geopolitical and trade issues [5] - The black building materials market is affected by factors such as rainfall, demand, and tariffs, with prices showing different trends; the non-ferrous metals market is affected by supply, demand, and macro factors, with copper and gold prices expected to be supported [11][19] - The energy chemicals market is affected by supply, demand, and macro policies, with PVC and soda ash facing certain pressure; the cotton textile industry chain is affected by supply and demand and Sino-US relations, with cotton and PTA showing different trends [22][34] - The agricultural and livestock market is affected by supply, demand, and policies, with pigs and eggs facing supply pressure and oils expected to have limited callbacks [40][52] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to buy on dips. The market turnover has increased, and the technology sector has been affected by the macro environment [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude. The bond market may continue to fluctuate due to geopolitical and trade issues [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The pithead price shows a differentiated trend, and the demand for early heating provides potential support [8] - **Rebar**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The price has fallen, and the static valuation is low. It is recommended to pay attention to the buying opportunity around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - **Glass**: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply has increased slightly, the inventory has risen, and the market is affected by policies and supply news [9][10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is expected to maintain a high-level strong trend. The supply is affected by accidents, and the demand has room for improvement in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips [11] - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is stable, the demand is in the peak season, and it is recommended to consider low-level long positions [13] - **Nickel**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply may be loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is tight, the demand is warming up, and it is recommended to conduct ranged trading [18] - **Gold and Silver**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The prices are supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and risk aversion. It is recommended to trade cautiously after price corrections [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4800 for 01 [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is increasing, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 2380 - 2530 for 01 [25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to maintain a short strategy for the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the price may decline [33] - **Other Chemicals**: The markets of styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate, and different factors affect their prices [22][26][28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to fluctuate with a bearish outlook. The supply and demand are adjusted, and the Sino-US relationship brings uncertainty [34] - **PTA**: The market is expected to have a narrow-range fluctuation. The cost support is insufficient, and the supply and demand are balanced [35][36] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The markets are expected to fluctuate stronger. The production and supply of apples are affected by the weather, and the supply of jujubes is affected by the harvest time [36][37] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The market is under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak in the short and long term. It is recommended to adjust short positions [40] - **Eggs**: The market is under pressure to rebound. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to adjust short positions and wait for the spot market [42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to have a range-bound fluctuation. The new crop is listed, and the supply and demand are balanced. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract [43] - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to have a low-level range-bound fluctuation. The supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 2900 for M2601 [45] - **Oils**: The market is expected to have limited callbacks. The prices are affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to buy after the callback [52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are recommended to be bought on dips in the medium - long term; Treasury bonds are advised to be kept under observation [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to be kept under observation [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to be held long on dips; Aluminum is advised to set up long positions on pullbacks; Nickel is recommended to be kept under observation or shorted on rallies; Tin is for range trading; Gold is to be bought on dips; Silver is for range trading [1][11][13][18] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are expected to oscillate; Polyolefins are to have wide - range oscillations; Soda ash 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [1][21][23][24][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA is for narrow - range oscillations; Apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate strongly [1][33][35][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are to be shorted on rallies; Eggs are to be shorted on rallies; Corn is for wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is for low - level oscillations; Oils are expected to have limited pullbacks [1][38][40][44][45][50] Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as macro - policies, international trade relations, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal factors. Different industries and varieties have different investment strategies based on their specific situations [5][8][11] Summaries by Categories Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: On October 13, the A - share market opened low and closed high. The market may oscillate, but is optimistic in the medium - long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures rebounded. The bond market may oscillate around the theme of Sino - US game, and it is advisable to keep under observation [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Affected by rainfall and weak demand, the pit - mouth price shows a differentiated trend. There is an expected increase in demand for early heating, and it is for range trading [8] - **Rebar**: The price oscillated down on Monday. The static valuation is low, and the demand in October is to be focused on. It is expected to be weak first and then strong, with a suggestion to go long around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - **Glass**: Some enterprises raised prices slightly, but the shipment was restricted. The supply increased, and the inventory rose. The demand is weak. It is advisable to keep under observation, focusing on the changes in Shahe production lines [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by Sino - US trade relations, the price may have high - level oscillations. The long - term supply - demand outlook is optimistic, and it is recommended to hold long on dips [11] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite price declined, the production capacity increased steadily, the demand is in the peak season, and the inventory accumulation is normal. It is advisable to set up long positions on pullbacks [13] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. The supply is in surplus in the medium - long term. It is recommended to keep under observation or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is warming up. It is for range trading, with a reference range of 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US economic data and interest - rate cut expectations, they are expected to oscillate. It is advisable to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 4850 pressure [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, the demand is increasing marginally, and it is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2380 - 2530 range [23][24] - **Styrene**: The cost - profit situation is not good, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly, with a focus on the 6600 - 6900 range [24][25] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the price may oscillate, with a focus on the 15,000 support [26][27] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, focusing on factors such as compound fertilizer production and exports [28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the main downstream is strong, and it is expected to oscillate [30] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The PE 2601 and PP 2601 contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the 6900 and 6600 supports respectively [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak after the festival, and the inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and there is uncertainty in Sino - US relations. The market may oscillate with a bearish expectation [33][34] - **PTA**: The crude oil price is weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the PTA is accumulating inventory. It is for narrow - range oscillations in the 4500 - 4750 range [34][35] - **Apples**: Affected by weather, the supply time of red apples is postponed. The quality is lower, and the price may oscillate strongly [35][36] - **Jujubes**: The sales during the National Day were flat. The new - season jujubes are about to be harvested, and the price may oscillate strongly [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and the supply is large in the medium - long term. Different contracts have different strategies, such as reducing short positions for the 11 contract and short - selling for the 01, 03, 05 contracts in the long - term [38][39] - **Eggs**: The demand is weak after the festival, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term price may oscillate at a low level. The 11 - contract short positions can be partially closed, and the 12 and 01 contracts are to wait for rallies to short - sell [40][41][42] - **Corn**: The new corn is on the market, and the supply is sufficient in the short term. The demand is weak, and the price may oscillate. The 11 - contract is for a short - selling strategy, and an attention is to be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by the harvest pressure and slow exports of US soybeans, the domestic soybean meal may oscillate at a low level, focusing on the support of 2900 - 2930 for the M2601 contract [45] - **Oils**: The short - term pullback is limited. The 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil should focus on the support levels of 8200 - 8250, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively, with a strategy of going long after the pullback [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global market turmoil was triggered by Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China on October 10, 2025, leading to sharp drops in stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies [11]. - The US government "shutdown" entered its 10th day, with federal employee lay - offs starting, and economic data release affected [12]. - China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, showing continued improvement in the manufacturing sector, while the central bank increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month [15][16]. - Metal prices were generally affected by macro - events. Copper prices are expected to adjust in the short - term but remain optimistic in the long - run; aluminum prices may face short - term pressure; zinc prices are likely to remain weakly volatile; lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range; nickel prices are subject to supply uncertainties; tin prices are supported by supply tightness and demand recovery; industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon markets are in a wait - and - see state; and lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Global Market Flash Crash**: On the night of October 10, Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China led to a global market sell - off. US stocks, crude oil, metal futures, and cryptocurrencies all tumbled. The US will raise the tariff on Chinese goods to 130% and implement key software export controls on November 1 [11]. - **US Government "Shutdown"**: The US government "shutdown" entered its 10th day, with federal employee lay - offs starting. The Department of Labor's data release was affected, and high - frequency economic data was difficult to obtain [12]. - **China's Economic Data**: China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.6%. The central bank increased its gold reserves by 40,000 ounces in September, the 11th consecutive monthly increase [15][16]. - **US Economic Data**: US economic data in September was generally weak. The ADP employment number decreased by 32,000; the ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the seventh consecutive month; and the ISM services PMI was 50, significantly lower than expected [19][20][21] 3.2 Metal Market Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. After Freeport declared force majeure at its Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia in late September, prices rose significantly but were limited by weak demand. On October 10, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions, copper prices dropped sharply [2]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be weakly volatile and may adjust further. However, in the long - run, the supply - demand balance remains tight, and prices are likely to stabilize after the short - term adjustment. It is recommended to reduce long - position holdings to avoid short - term risks [2] Aluminum - **Price Trend**: Aluminum prices fell from high levels. The price of Guinea's bauxite decreased, and the alumina market was under pressure. Trump's tariff signal led to short - term pressure on aluminum prices [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Although short - term prices may continue to decline, the demand peak season remains unchanged, and downstream开工 rates are expected to rise. It is recommended that long - position holders pay attention to risk avoidance and monitor the development of events [2] Zinc - **Price Trend**: Zinc prices rose and then fell. The weak US employment data increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut, leading to a rebound in zinc prices. However, the overall terminal consumption was weak [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic refined zinc output is expected to remain high, but demand is weak. It is expected that zinc prices will remain weakly volatile, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range - based short - biased trading [2] Lead - **Price Trend**: Lead prices oscillated horizontally. The domestic lead supply showed a downward trend, and the price recovered after a sharp drop. However, due to the new round of Sino - US trade confrontation, there is a risk of sharp fluctuations [2]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that lead prices will oscillate within the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range - based trading [2] Nickel - **Price Trend**: Nickel prices oscillated within a range. The new RKAB approval policy in Indonesia has brought uncertainties to the nickel ore market. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside potential [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see or moderately hold short positions at high prices. The main contract of nickel is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton; for stainless steel, range - based trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [3] Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices oscillated within an upward channel. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor and photovoltaic industries are showing signs of recovery. However, the short - term tariff increase expectation has a negative impact on prices [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to conduct range - based trading, with the reference range for the SHFE tin 11 contract being 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3] Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon prices fluctuated widely, and polycrystalline silicon prices oscillated at high levels. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon showed different trends, and the photovoltaic industry's anti - involution policy has not been implemented [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Given the current supply - demand expectations for October, it is recommended to wait and see until the policy becomes clear [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Lithium carbonate prices oscillated horizontally. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the demand from the energy storage terminal is good. However, there are risks related to mining permits [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining permits in Yichun and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]