棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 宏观方面，国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地，叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果，政策面释放积极信号，基本面来看，本年度 国内商业库存去库加速，消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧， 短期棉价受多方利好背景下，短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束， 并未出现异常天气，今年新疆丰产概率增大，以及国内一二季度抢出口， 消费前置，远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注，6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期，中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要，若向好的形势发展，美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和，美 联储降息概率上升，更加有利于经济发展，所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展，逐步认证，从整体上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份， 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾，短中期看涨，但远期丰产， 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：震荡偏强 现货方面：PT ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various energy and chemical products are affected by multiple factors including supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic conditions, and tariff policies. Different products show different trends in the short and medium - term, with some expected to be in a low - level shock state, while others are more likely to be short - term supported but face supply pressure in the medium - term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - **Price Information**: On May 12, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4836 yuan/ton (+31), the Changzhou market price was 4650 yuan/ton (-10), the main basis was - 186 yuan/ton (+41), the Guangzhou market price was 4750 yuan/ton (0), and the Hangzhou market price was 4700 yuan/ton (-30) [2]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the long - term, demand is sluggish due to the real - estate drag, and exports are restricted. Supply has new investment plans, and inventory is still high. It is in a state of loose supply - demand [2]. - **Macro - factors**: China and the US will reduce tariffs on each other's goods within 90 days. The short - term tariff relaxation exceeds expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. The domestic first - quarter data is good, and there may be some support for exports in the second quarter. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short - term [2]. Caustic Soda - **Price Information**: On May 12, the main SH09 contract closed at 2545 yuan/ton (+69), the Shandong market mainstream price was 830 yuan/ton (+10), and the converted 100% price was 2594 yuan/ton (+31). The liquid chlorine price in Shandong was 150 yuan/ton (-50). From May 13, a Shandong alumina manufacturer raised the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the short - term, production reduction and tariff relaxation provide support. In the medium - term, supply is still relatively sufficient, and demand growth is limited. The 09 contract is still mainly short - biased in the medium - term [3]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to the delivery volume of Weiqiao, inventory reduction, alumina production and export, the possible support of weak liquid chlorine prices for caustic soda, and the scale and continuity of maintenance from June to August [3]. Rubber - **Price Information**: On May 12, rubber was running strongly. As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 61.87 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45 tons and an increase of 0.73%. There are also detailed price data for raw materials, finished products, and basis differences [4][5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the short - term, the supply of latex is slow, and the raw material price remains high, providing bottom support for the rubber price. The inventory in Qingdao is slightly increasing, and the market is expected to fluctuate [4]. Urea - **Price Information**: The main urea contract fell 0.26% to close at 1897 yuan/ton. The daily average price in the Henan market increased by 23 yuan/ton to 1918 yuan/ton, and the daily average price in the Shandong market increased by 68 yuan/ton to 1916 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is stable, with a daily output of 19.5 - 200,000 tons. The demand for rice fertilization in the south and corn base fertilization in the north will be concentrated, and there is also some elasticity in exports. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock state in the short - term [6]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to the start - up of compound fertilizer, urea plant production reduction and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [6]. Methanol - **Price Information**: The main methanol contract rose 1.79% to close at 2270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the Taicang market increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2425 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is expected to continue to increase, while downstream demand is wait - and - see. It is expected that the decline will slow down, and the reference range for the 09 contract is 2200 - 2350 [7][8]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to macro - changes, methanol plant maintenance, methanol - to - olefin start - up, coal prices, and international crude oil prices [8]. Plastic - **Price Information**: On May 12, the main plastic contract rose 1.08% to close at 7090 yuan/ton. There are also price data for different types of plastics [9]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In April, the plastic price dropped significantly due to tariffs. The supply side has new capacity in the second quarter, and the demand side is weak. The inventory of upstream enterprises and traders has increased, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [9]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to downstream demand, domestic stimulus policies, tariff games, and crude oil price fluctuations [9].

长江期货贵金属周报 贸易政策谈判在即，价格延续震荡 2025/5/12 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2023/07/03 2023/08/03 2023/09/03 2023/10/03 2023/11/03 2023/12/03 2024/01/03 2024/02/03 2024/03/03 2024/04/03 2024/05/03 2024/06/03 2024/07/03 2024/08/03 2024/09/03 2024/10/03 2024/11/03 2024/12/03 2025/01/03 2025/02/03 2025/03/03 2025/04/03 ...

黑色：低估值弱驱动 价格震荡运行 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/5/12 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 张佩云 执业编号：F03090752 投资咨询号：Z0019837 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 白天霖 执业编号：F03138690 主要观点 上周螺纹钢价格偏弱运行，现货与期货跌幅相当，基差窄幅波动。宏观方面，5月7日，三部门发布一揽子金融政 策稳市场稳预期，货币政策利多落地，不过盘面高开低走，市场仍在期待财政政策发力，当地时间5月10日上午，中美 经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦开始举行；产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、表需双降，库存小幅累积，供需格局有转差迹象， 当然也有五一假期因素影响，需求是否已经开始季节性回落还需进一步观察。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格已经低于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，预计中 美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需 求季节性下滑，市场预期偏弱，低估值背景下，预计价格震荡运行。 交易策略 观望或者短线交易。 01 螺纹 ...

目 录 01 豆粕：供应逐步改善，价格震荡下行 01 豆粕：供应逐步改善，价格震荡下行 长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-05-12 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 联 系 人：姚 杨 执业编号:F03113968 01 02 油脂：供应压力仍存，期价反弹受限 豆粕 ：供应逐步改善，价格震荡下行 ◆ 期现端：截止5月9日，华东现货报价3110元/吨，周度下跌190元/吨，M2509合约收盘至2899元/吨，周度下跌21元/吨，基差报价09+200元/吨，周度 下跌150元/吨。周度豆粕价格偏弱运行，随着大豆到港增加，油厂开机率上扬以及备货结束，大豆豆粕进入累库周期，现货价格快速回落。M2509合约受 到港压制以及供应压力后移影响，价格走势偏弱。 ◆ 供应端：5月美豆UDSA供需报告即将公布，市场预估25/26年度美豆种植面积维持在8350万英亩；单产方面，市场维持52.5蒲/英亩。但受中美贸易摩擦 影响，预计本次报告下调美豆出口上调国内压榨。当前美豆主产区天气良好，利于大豆播种，截至5月4日美豆已完成 30%的播种率，单周推进了 ...

关税影响好转 有色金属或继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-05-12 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 主要品种观点综述 走势状态 行情观点 操作建议 | | | 英美达成贸易协议，中美亦开始正式接触谈判，全球贸易紧张局势有所缓解。美联储暂停降息，国内提出"一揽子金融政策"，均基本符合市场预 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位持续横盘 | 期。特朗普关税政策反反复复，关税影响总体上相对好转，但前期给全球经济带来的不利影响仍然存在，从4月进出口数据来看对中国影响有限， | | | 铜 | | 但后续不良影响仍可能会逐步显现。基本面上，国内库存降至低位，近一个月国内库存下降明显，带动了现货升水走高和盘面Back结构扩大。TC | 区间交易 | | | 77000-79000 | 持续探底跌破-42美元，虽受 ...

金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 股指或震荡偏强，国债短 期看好 2025-05-12 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 01 股指策略建议 p 策略展望：震荡偏强。 01 金融期货策略建议 p 风险提示：特朗普政策实施节奏与力度，美国经济数据暴雷，美联储降息节奏，地缘政治 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：周内本周A股宽基指数周涨幅大多为正数，上证指数上涨1.92%。 p 核心观点：日本首相石破茂重申"零关税" ，要求美国全面取消汽车关税。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务 院副总理何立峰出席新闻发布会表示，中美达成重要共识，会谈取得实质性进展，中美双方将尽快敲定 相关细节，并将于5月12日发布会谈达成的联合声明。中国4月CPI同比降0.1%、与上月持平，PPI同 比降幅扩大至2.7%。人民日报刊文：加快解放和发展新质战斗力。中美双方将发布联合声明，贸易战 对经 ...

长江期货PTA产业周报 产业供需去库，短期偏强震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-05-12 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 行情回顾： 1 01 上周回顾——短期供需尚可，市场低位震荡 PX：上周PX价格低位反弹。一方面成本端原油价格支撑走强。另一方面PX供应端继续减产，周度产量减少， 社会库存缓降，PXN略有回升，总体而言较前一周基本略有好转，在春检时期，短期市场价格反弹。 PTA：上周PTA价格低位回升。成本端国际油价支撑化工品反弹；供应装置方面，恒力惠州与恒力大连按计划 检修，PTA开工下降，下游聚酯负荷小幅降低，综合供需PTA去库延续，总体供需好于前一周，价格反弹。 乙二醇：上周乙二醇价格低位反弹，期初受五一期间国际油价下行影响，节后价格低开；而后随着宏观面逐步 转好，逢低买盘兴趣提升推动市场从低位反弹走势，期现价格开始反弹，但由于港口 ...

长江期货纸浆产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-5-12 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员：洪润霞 执业编号: F0260331 投资咨询号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号: F0270997 投资咨询号:Z0002826 联系人：钟 舟 执业编号: F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号: F3033495 低位止跌 01 周度观点 1 整体观点：智利Arauco调整4月报价，针叶浆银星770美元/吨；阔叶浆明星560美元/吨，较前期有明显下调。欧洲港 口数据显示，欧洲港口总库存环比增长7.60%，较2024年3月增长25.96%，除德国港口环比缩减外，其余多数国家港 口库存环比增长。3月纸浆进口总量为325万吨，环比+0.9%，同比+2.5%。截止2025年4月30日,国内主要地区及港 口周度纸浆库存量环比下降2.12%，各个港口出货速度仍有差异，其中高栏港到货相对集中。需求端维持偏弱运行。 纸浆成本支撑大幅下调，供应端维持宽松态势，需求端持续疲软，基本面格局整体偏弱，纸浆承压运行为主。 2 风险因素：市场消费情况、宏观市场风险 数据来源：博易大师、IFI ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly; Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation; Iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly; Coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range; Aluminum is recommended for observation; Nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies; Tin is recommended for trading within a range; Gold is recommended for building positions on dips after a full price correction; Silver is recommended for trading within a range [1][12][17][19] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly; Caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly; Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly; Urea is recommended for interval operation; Methanol is recommended for interval operation; Plastic is expected to fluctuate; Soda ash is recommended for holding short positions in call options [1][21][25][27] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate and rebound; Apples are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][29][30] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly; Eggs are recommended for short - selling on rallies; Corn is expected to fluctuate strongly; Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level; Oils are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35][37] Core Views The report provides investment ratings and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the market based on factors such as macro - economic data, industry supply and demand, and trade policies. For example, in the macro - finance sector, international trade policies and domestic economic data affect the performance of index futures and Treasury bonds. In the commodity sectors, supply - demand relationships, production costs, and trade frictions play important roles in determining price trends [5][7][12] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Influenced by international trade policies and domestic economic data, such as Japan's "zero - tariff" demand, Sino - US trade talks, and China's CPI and PPI data, the index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The adjustment in the bond market is related to capital expectations. The pricing logic of the futures market is that the steepening of the curve may be near the end. The opportunities in the bond market lie in the medium - long end of the curve, and the potential risks come from the short end [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price of rebar futures is lower than the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. The policy is expected to have repeated games on Sino - US tariffs, and the probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies in the short term is small. The supply - demand situation is fair, but the market expectation is weak due to tariff and seasonal factors, so the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment of iron ore has declined slightly, with a significant drop in Australian shipments. The demand for iron ore is approaching the traditional off - season, and the high - level pig iron production has limited upward space. Considering the peak of pig iron production and continuous international trade frictions, the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, the supply pressure in some regions is emerging, and the demand is limited. For coke, the supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the weak terminal demand for steel. Overall, the coking coal and coke market is expected to fluctuate [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global trade situation has eased, but the negative impact of the previous trade war on the economy still exists. The domestic copper inventory has decreased, and the support for copper prices from fundamentals is strong, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended for cautious trading within a range [12] - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is increasing, and the price is decreasing. The alumina market is in a state of coexistence of production, resumption, and reduction. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended for observation [14] - **Nickel**: The macro - environment is not optimistic, and the supply of nickel is in an oversupply situation. The price of nickel ore is firm, but the pure nickel is in an oversupply pattern. It is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies [15][16] - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production has decreased, and the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are expectations of复产. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended for trading within a range [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by Sino - US trade talks, US economic data, and tariff policies, the prices of gold and silver are expected to fluctuate. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in July, and the central bank's gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support the prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's April inflation data [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: In the long - term, PVC demand is affected by the real estate industry, and the export is restricted. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory is still high. The price is at a low level, and the macro - situation dominates. It is recommended to pay attention to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda has rebounded, but the supply pressure is large in the medium - term, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to pay attention to the delivery volume of Weiqiao, inventory reduction, alumina production, and exports [22] - **Rubber**: In the short - term, the price of rubber is supported by the delay of rubber tapping in Thailand, but the downstream demand improvement is not obvious, and the inventory is increasing. In the long - term, if there is no major reversal in policies and tariffs, the market will be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply. It is recommended to pay attention to tariff trends, rubber - tapping policies, and weather conditions [23][24] - **Urea**: Driven by export news, the urea price has risen and is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is stable, and the demand for fertilizers in the south and north will be released. It is recommended to pay attention to compound fertilizer production, urea plant maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [25] - **Methanol**: After the holiday, the supply has increased and the demand has decreased. The downstream is cautious in purchasing. The supply is expected to continue to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes, methanol plant maintenance, methanol - to - olefin production, coal prices, and international crude oil prices [26] - **Plastic**: Affected by tariffs, the plastic price has dropped. The supply pressure is large due to new capacity, and the demand is in the off - season. Although there are some positive factors, the short - term is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream demand, domestic stimulus policies, tariff games, and crude oil price fluctuations [27] - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of soda ash is firm, but the futures price has dropped slightly due to insufficient expected maintenance. The supply is still high, but the maintenance is expected to increase. The downstream is not optimistic. It is recommended for short - term observation and to pay attention to short - term lows and 9 - 1 positive spread opportunities [28] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply - demand is still loose, the downstream consumption is weak, and the Sino - US trade friction has uncertainties. The cotton price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [29] - **Apples**: The current apple inventory is low, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the fruit - setting situation and macro - risks [30] - **PTA**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and OPEC's production increase expectations, the cost of PTA has decreased. Although the supply - demand is good and the inventory is decreasing, the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4200 support level [30] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is increasing and postponed, putting pressure on the pig price. However, the futures discount has already reflected the weak expectation, so the decline is limited. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions and short on rallies [33] - **Eggs**: After the May Day holiday, the demand has declined, and the supply is increasing, putting pressure on the egg price. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase. The 06 contract is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the 08 and 09 contracts are recommended for short - selling on rallies [35] - **Corn**: The supply of corn from the grassroots level has decreased, and the market is bullish. In the long - term, the new crop yield may decrease, and the import may continue to decline, but the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to wait for dips to go long [35] - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, the supply of soybean meal is increasing, and the price is expected to decline. In the long - term, due to tariff policies and weather factors, the cost will increase, and the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and go long on dips in the long - term [37] - **Oils**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly. In the short - term, the supply pressure of soybean oil and palm oil is large, and the price of rapeseed oil is relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread expansion strategy of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm 09 contracts [37][38][42]