Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market showed a briefly macro - positive trend due to news like China - US talks, but concerns about the economy persisted, and the Fed's hawkish stance at night also influenced the market. Overall, the market situation is complex and influenced by multiple factors including domestic policies, international trade, and economic growth expectations [2][4]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - On May 7, PVC prices rose and then fell. In the long - term, PVC faces a supply - demand imbalance with weak demand due to the real - estate downturn and export restrictions, and high supply pressure from new projects and high - profit烧碱 production. Currently, it is mainly influenced by the macro - environment, with low valuation and weak trading. Key factors to watch are tariff negotiations, domestic stimulus policies, exports, and maintenance efforts [2]. 烧碱 - On May 7, the main SH09 contract of caustic soda closed at 2513 yuan/ton (+15). The market supply is abundant, demand has not improved, and prices are trending lower. The overall situation is that supply remains sufficient, demand growth is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Key points to monitor are Weiqiao's delivery volume, inventory reduction, alumina production start - up, exports, and maintenance scale from June to August [3]. 橡胶 - On May 7, rubber prices rose and then fell. NR in Thailand is expected to start tapping soon and is showing weakness, while RU has some support from stockpiling. If there are no major reversals in domestic policies and tariff issues, the market will be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply, and may continue to fluctuate weakly in the medium - term. Factors to watch are tariff developments and post - tapping weather [4][6]. 尿素 - The main urea contract rose 0.96% to close at 1886 yuan/ton. Supply is at a historically high level, with a daily output of about 200,000 tons. Demand includes agricultural, industrial, and export - substitution aspects. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with the 09 contract operating in the 1750 - 1950 yuan/ton range. Key factors to follow are crop sowing progress, export news, and macro - policy changes [7]. 甲醇 - The main methanol contract rose 0.09% to close at 2239 yuan/ton. Supply from inland areas is decreasing due to lower device operating rates, while downstream demand is relatively stable. Inventory shows a differentiation between inland and port areas. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the operating range of 2200 - 2350 yuan/ton [8]. 塑料 - On May 7, the main plastic contract rose 0.51% to 7046 yuan/ton. In April, due to tariff policies, plastic prices dropped significantly. Supply pressure is increasing with new capacity coming online in the second quarter. Demand is entering the off - season, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Key factors to monitor are downstream demand, domestic stimulus policies, tariff negotiations, and crude oil price fluctuations [9][10].

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 7 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 0.15%至 77790 元/吨。美 国 4 月非农就业人口增长达到 17.7 万人，就业增长强劲，失业率亦保持 稳定，但制造业产出出现自 2020 年以来最严重的萎缩，中国 PMI 数据 也对关税影响有所体现。同时 4 月份发往美国的精炼铜货物超过 17 万 吨，或将超过 2001 年 11 月份大约 14.2 万吨所创历史最高，美铜承压， 带动假日海外市场一度大跌，但随后持续反弹。国内假日期间铜价整体 大幅波动，小幅下跌。基本面上，铜精矿现货市场延续低迷态势，TC 持 续探底跌破-40 美元，虽受益于副产品价格高位，精铜产出依然保持韧 性，但炼厂压力在增大。在铜产出维持高位的背景下，市场去库并未受 到明显影响，纽约大幅垒库，但国内大幅去库，LME 库存亦在减少，铜 的供需基本面仍偏紧张。供应端矿端压力延续并有加大趋势，废铜进口 可能受限。但铜价进一步上行将对需求带来抑制，而特朗普政府贸易战 对全球经济带来的拖累仍将对铜整体需求带来不利影响，或将在需求端 逐步显现，因而铜价上行空间也受到限制。节后沪铜或仍维持震荡格局， 建 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 8 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.5-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.5-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15.4- 16 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，二育栏舍利用率已超过一 半，部分养殖户五一前后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升，二次育肥进 场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消费转淡，且 猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍 存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出 情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升， 在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11- 2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而 上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注二育介入造 成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月 开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限，处于均衡区间上 限， ...

日度观点: ◆ PVC： 5 月 6 日 PVC 震荡偏弱。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续低迷，出口 受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大（12%左右）；供 应端有不少新投计划，二季度投产压力较大，且烧碱利润高开工持续维 持高位，库存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽 松格局，偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量持稳状态， 内需季节性恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。目 前海外局势动荡，全球经济增速放缓，国内政策预期不强，PVC 估值偏 低，盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策力度。基本 面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期，或有一定支撑。若贸 易摩擦恶化、经济预期继续恶化，盘面进一步承压。 能源化工日报 公司资质 ◆ 烧碱： 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 5 月 6 日烧碱主力 SH09 合约收 2498 元/吨（+19），山东市场主流价 800 元/吨（+20），折百 2500 元/吨（+62），液氯山东-100 元/吨（-200）。 4 月 13 日开始，山东地区某氧化铝厂家采购 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 7 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.5-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.5-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定； 广东 15.4-16 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，二育栏舍利用 率已超过一半，部分养殖户五一前后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消 费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥 滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节 奏、二育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生 产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据， 2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体 重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注 二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动； 2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限， 处 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Short - term bullish on Treasury bonds [3] - The stock index is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [1] Group 2: Core Views Stock Index - The EU plans to expand counter - measures; if negotiations fail, it will impose tariffs on $100 billion worth of US goods. Meetings between US and Canadian leaders have different stances. High - level China - US economic and trade talks and the 10th China - France High - level Economic and Financial Dialogue will be held. The spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce answered questions about the China - US economic and trade talks. Relevant departments will introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations". With multiple positive factors, the stock index may oscillate with a slight upward trend [1] Treasury Bonds - The impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market is not significant. The core factor restricting the decline of yields is the capital price. Although the overall capital situation is balanced, the central bank's actions in April and after the holiday show the restraint of the capital market. The "relatively high" capital interest rate is the biggest obstacle to the decline of current yields [2] Group 3: Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.13%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.67%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.99%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 2.39% [4] Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.11%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.06% [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market will oscillate with a slight upward trend [5] Treasury Bonds - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract will oscillate with a slight upward trend [7] Group 5: Strategy Suggestions Stock Index - Oscillatory operation [2] Treasury Bonds - Short - term bullish [3] Group 6: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3766.20 | 1.13 | 47831 | 138953 | | 2025/05/06 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2629.60 | 0.67 | 25377 | 44285 | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5622.00 | 1.99 | 43200 | 97319 | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5953.20 | 2.39 | 107389 | 160100 | | 2025/05/06 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.04 | - 0.01 | 49555 | 189565 | | 2025/05/06 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.06 | - 0.04 | 46541 | 155595 | | 2025/05/06 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.97 | 0.11 | 61695 | 102169 | | 2025/05/06 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.31 | - 0.06 | 28361 | 93460 | [9]

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格高开低走，杭州中天螺纹钢 3210 元/吨，较前一 日下跌 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 133（+9），关注 7 日上午国新办的新 闻发布会，央行等多部门将介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期" 有关情况。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附 近，仅仅高于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端， 预计中美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模刺激政策概率较 小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需求季节性下滑，市场预 期偏弱，关注限产政策是否落地，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花 顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 供给方面，全球发运季节性回升，近期国内进口矿到港有所增长，港口 铁矿库存仍呈现小幅上升态势。需求方面，铁水产量大幅增长，钢厂产 能利用率提升。月末钢厂复产节奏加快，成材价格暂稳，钢厂生产积极 性提高。市场存在粗钢限产预期，但尚未见到具体政策文件出台，五千 万吨限产相较总量仍然较少，正反馈难以形成，矿价仍是弱势。基本面 铁矿属于供需均有走弱趋势，但即将进入传统淡季，高位铁水再向上空 间不大，存在见 ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 6 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约下跌 0.06%至 77600 元/吨。美 国 4 月非农就业人口增长达到 17.7 万人，就业增长强劲，失业率亦保持 稳定，但制造业产出出现自 2020 年以来最严重的萎缩，中国 PMI 数据 也对关税影响有所体现。同时 4 月份发往美国的精炼铜货物超过 17 万 吨，或将超过 2001 年 11 月份大约 14.2 万吨所创历史最高，美铜承压， 带动假日海外市场一度大跌，但随后持续反弹。国内假日期间铜价整体 大幅波动，小幅下跌。基本面上，铜精矿现货市场延续低迷态势，TC 持 续探底跌破-40 美元，虽受益于副产品价格高位，精铜产出依然保持韧 性，但炼厂压力在增大。在铜产出维持高位的背景下，市场去库并未受 到明显影响，纽约大幅垒库，但国内大幅去库，LME 库存亦在减少，铜 的供需基本面仍偏紧张。供应端矿端压力延续并有加大趋势，废铜进口 可能受限。但铜价进一步上行将对需求带来抑制，而特朗普政府贸易战 对全球经济带来的拖累仍将对铜整体需求带来不利影响，或将在需求端 逐步显现，因而铜价上行空间也受到限制。节后沪铜或仍维持震荡格局， 建 ...

| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 震荡运行 | | | ◆国债： 震荡上行 | | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： 暂时观望 | | | ◆铁矿石： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆双焦： 震荡运行 | | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望，等待逢高做空机会 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： 区间交易 | | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： 区间交易 | | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： 震荡 | | | ◆纯碱： | 看涨期权空头持有。 | | ◆烧碱： 震荡 | | | ◆橡胶： 震荡 | | | ◆尿素： 震荡运行 | | | ◆甲醇： 震荡运行 | | | ◆塑料： 震荡运行 | | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆苹果： 震荡走强 | | | ◆PTA： 震荡偏弱 | | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆鸡蛋： 走势偏弱 | | | ◆玉米： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆豆粕： 走势偏弱 | | | ◆油脂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The U.S. April non - farm payroll data was unexpectedly strong, Trump indicated a tariff cut on China, and the Fed maintained policy independence, leading to a decline in market risk - aversion and a correction in gold prices. However, U.S. tariff policies have raised market concerns about a hard - landing of the economy, increasing the expected number of interest rate cuts this year. The Fed remains hawkish, and market expectations of a July rate cut, along with central bank gold - buying demand and risk - aversion, support precious metal prices. Due to the expected volatility of U.S. tariff policies, prices are likely to be in an adjustment state. Attention should be paid to the Fed's May interest rate decision on Thursday [10]. - It is recommended to trade cautiously, and consider a strategy of building positions at low prices after a full price correction, with reference to the operating ranges of Shanghai Gold 06 contract (758 - 800) and Shanghai Silver 06 contract (7600 - 8500) [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The progress of tariff negotiations and Trump's expansion of the tax - levying scope led to a wide - range shock in the price of U.S. gold. As of last Friday, U.S. gold closed at $3247 per ounce, down 2.4% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3390, and the lower support level is $3270 [6]. - The price of U.S. silver showed a weak shock. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 3.5%, closing at $32.18 per ounce. The lower support level is $32, and the upper resistance level is $34 [9]. 2. Weekly View - The U.S. April non - farm payroll data was strong, Trump planned to cut tariffs on China, and the Fed maintained policy independence, reducing market risk - aversion and causing a correction in gold prices. The U.S. tariff policy has worried the market, increasing concerns about a hard - landing of the economy and the expected number of interest rate cuts this year. The Fed remains hawkish, and the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April. The market expects the Fed to cut rates in July, and central bank gold - buying demand and risk - aversion support precious metal prices. The expected volatility of U.S. tariff policies means prices will likely be in an adjustment state. Attention should be paid to the Fed's May interest rate decision on Thursday [10]. - Strategy suggestion: Trade cautiously, and consider building positions at low prices after a full price correction, with reference to the operating ranges of Shanghai Gold 06 contract (758 - 800) and Shanghai Silver 06 contract (7600 - 8500) [11]. 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators The report presents data and trends of various overseas macroeconomic indicators such as real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), dollar index, euro - dollar exchange rate, pound - dollar exchange rate, yield spreads (10Y - 2Y), Fed balance sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [14][18][20]. 4. Important Economic Data of the Week | Economic Indicator | Announced Value | Expected Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | U.S. April non - farm payrolls change (seasonally adjusted, in millions) | 17.7 | 13 | 18.5 | | U.S. April unemployment rate (%) | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | | U.S. April ISM manufacturing PMI | 48.7 | 48 | 49 | | U.S. April ADP employment change (in millions) | 6.2 | 11.5 | 15.5 | | U.S. Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate (preliminary value, %) | - 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.4 | | U.S. Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate (preliminary value, %) | 3.5 | 3.3 | 2.6 | | U.S. March PCE price index annual rate (%) | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | [22] 5. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Trump approved a 100% tariff on overseas - made movies, expanding the scope of the trade war from physical goods to an industry with a large U.S. trade surplus, indicating a possible further spread of the trade war. - The U.S. added 17.7 million non - farm jobs in April, far exceeding the market expectation of 13.8 million. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations, and the labor force participation rate was 62.6%, slightly higher than expected. - The U.S. March PCE price index increased by 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest level since last autumn; the core PCE price index increased by 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the previous value of 2.8%; both PCE and core PCE were flat month - on - month [24]. 6. Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 13,384.47 kg to 1,283,813.73 kg this week, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory remained unchanged at 15,648 kg compared with last week. - Silver: COMEX inventory increased by 33,287.27 kg to 15,519,976.28 kg this week, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 36,093 kg to 959,689 kg [12][29]. 7. Fund Holdings - As of April 29, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 181,879 lots, a decrease of 13,390 lots compared with last week. - As of April 29, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 47,819 lots, an increase of 5,502 lots compared with last week [12][33]. 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - On Thursday (May 8), at 20:30, pay attention to the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending May 3; at 23:00, pay attention to the U.S. April New York Fed 3 - year inflation expectation [35].