投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 投资者静待美国经济数据，基本金属震 荡整理 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-11-18 有⾊观点：投资者静待美国经济数据，基本⾦属震荡整理 交易逻辑：当地时间11月12日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署了国会两院通 过的一项联邦政府临时拨款法案，从而结束了已持续43天的史上最长联邦 政府"停摆"，这意味着近期堆积未发布的经济数据将密集公布，投资者 重新审视，12月美联储降息预期有所降温，整体来看，宏观面预期反复， 但整体稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，比如：铜等， 并且，海外铝冶炼再现扰动风险。终端表现分化，11月初汽车销售增速放 缓，11-12月空调排产降幅扩大，基本金属现实供需略偏弱，但预期偏 紧。整体来看，中短期，供应扰动继续支撑基本金属价格，但宏观预期反 复及需求一般限制价格上行高度，基本金属冲高回落，重新转为震荡整 理，可继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期 仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价 格走势。 铜观点：美国政府重启，铜价⾼位盘整。 氧化铝观点：库存累积速度仍旧较快，氧化铝价维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][9][11][13] 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: This week, the core driver of major assets lies in the resonance between the "anticipatory front - running" after the restart of the US government and the strengthened expectation of looser liquidity. Key inflation and employment data are still lacking, causing the market to shift from data - dependence to assumption - dependence. Weak high - frequency private indicators have led to an increase in market expectations of interest rate cuts, limiting the rebound of the US dollar and lowering US Treasury yields, and continuously strengthening the financial attributes of precious metals. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the impact of expectation differences after front - running [5] - Domestic macro: In October, the overall economic data continued the weak and stable trend, and the pulling effect of incremental policies on the fundamentals has not been reflected yet. In the context of the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade - in policy, weak capital in - place, a phased decline in exports, and anti - involution expectations, the overall data in October continued to slow down slightly but still showed resilience. The two incremental policies implemented in October are expected to take effect at the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in October was 6.2%, and the financial data generally met expectations [5] - Asset view: The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter has not changed much, and the macro - environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors make a balanced allocation among major assets in the fourth quarter. Long - positions should continue to be held, and attention should be paid to the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. If there is a certain degree of correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial Market Price Changes - Various commodities have different price changes in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations. For example, lithium carbonate has an 8.97% daily increase, 17.85% monthly increase, 30.66% quarterly increase, and 23.48% annual increase, showing relatively strong performance [2] 3.2 Macro Summary - Overseas: The core driver of major assets is the resonance between "anticipatory front - running" and looser liquidity expectations. Market expectations of interest rate cuts have increased, but there are risks of expectation differences [5] - Domestic: The economic data in October continued the weak and stable trend. Incremental policies are expected to take effect at the end of the fourth quarter, and financial data met expectations [5] - Asset allocation: It is recommended to make a balanced allocation in the fourth quarter, hold long - positions, and pay attention to the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [5] 3.3 Sector and Variety Analysis 3.3.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [6] - Stock index options: The overall market turnover has slightly declined, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Treasury bond futures: The bond market continues to be weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold/silver: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade relations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward driving force, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Steel: The actual supply and demand are both weak, but the futures market is firm, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Iron ore: Port inventories continue to accumulate, and the restocking demand needs to be released, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Coke: The price increase over the weekend has been implemented, and the supply continues to decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Coking coal: The supply is difficult to recover continuously, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Silicon iron: The supply and demand are loose, and the price is under pressure, but the cost support is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Manganese silicon: The supply and demand situation remains loose, and there is no upward driving force for the price, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Glass: The supply and demand are still in excess, and inventory contradictions are accumulating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Soda ash: The demand for light soda ash is strong, and there is still cost support, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper: Due to the tight US monetary liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Alumina: The fundamental situation is still in excess, and the alumina price is under pressure and oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Aluminum/zinc: The stock - futures linkage leads to an oscillatory upward trend of the aluminum price, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level, with short - term judgments of oscillatory rise and oscillation respectively [6] - Lead: Social inventories are slightly accumulating, and the lead price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Nickel: Market sentiment has improved, and the nickel price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Stainless steel: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures market is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Tin: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decline, and the tin price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Industrial silicon: The supply in the southwest has rapidly declined, and the silicon price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Lithium carbonate: The restart expectation is repeated, and it is necessary to be vigilant against large price fluctuations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: The expectation of oversupply is strengthened, and there are still geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - LPG: The refinery's external supply has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Asphalt: The situation between the US and Venezuela has cooled down, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - High - sulfur fuel oil: The fuel oil futures price is weakly oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil is weakly oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Methanol: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol oscillated lower this week, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Urea: Downstream buyers follow up at low prices, and the futures price is regarded as oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Ethylene glycol: The number of maintenance of existing plants has increased, and the short - term supply - demand pattern has improved. The price may fluctuate in a low - level range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - PX: The expectation of aromatics for oil blending and BIS sentiment have fermented, and the efficiency and valuation remain firm, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9] - PTA: The news sentiment has significantly boosted, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, and the support below the processing fee has increased, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9] - Short - fiber: There is some support from the raw material end, but the processing fee has room to be compressed under weak demand expectations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Bottle chips: There is raw material support, but the profit is in a stalemate due to the game between high inventory and weak demand, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Propylene: Downstream transactions have increased, and PL is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - PP: After continuous decline, it has slightly stabilized, and attention should be paid to the change of maintenance, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Plastic: The upcoming cold snap next week may boost the support of the raw material end, and plastic is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Styrene: The narrative of aromatics for oil blending has caused short - positions to reduce, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - PVC: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Caustic soda: The spot pressure remains high, and the futures market is cautiously weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - Fats and oils: It may oscillate and consolidate in the near future, and attention should be paid to the production and demand situation of Malaysian palm oil, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Protein meal: The US soybean price fell overnight, and the two types of meal reduced positions and made up for the decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9] - Corn/starch: They continue to oscillate at a high level, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Pigs: The supply pressure persists, and the pig price is running weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9] - Natural rubber: It is waiting for a driving force and oscillating within a range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Synthetic rubber: The futures market has temporarily entered an oscillatory consolidation phase, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Cotton: There is a short - term risk of correction, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Sugar: The rebound momentum is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9] - Pulp: The futures price is oscillating at a high level, and the long - dominated pattern remains unchanged, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Double - offset paper: Paper enterprises are holding up prices, and the spot price has stopped falling, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, polysilicon shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, the price center of polysilicon is optimistic as backward production capacity is expected to be gradually cleared. One can consider laying out long positions on dips or obtaining premium income by selling out - of - the - money put options [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - From November 12th to 13th, the polysilicon futures rebounded, with the price rising from over 51,000 yuan/ton to over 54,000 yuan/ton. After the photovoltaic industry association refuted the "reserve short - selling" rumor, market confidence was restored, and the polysilicon price rebounded rapidly [3] Fundamental Situation - In the third quarter, the monthly supply of polysilicon rose to over 130,000 tons. In November, due to the dry season in the southwest and production cuts in Yunnan and Sichuan, the supply is expected to drop rapidly to below 120,000 tons. On the demand side, terminal installation is still under pressure, and the production schedules of cells and components have declined since October. The production of silicon rods has remained high but is expected to decline, and silicon wafer prices have loosened. However, several silicon wafer enterprises have jointly supported prices, with some wafer prices increasing [4] Summary and Strategy - Polysilicon is in a policy window period, and the price fluctuates greatly. Although the terminal demand is weak and the fundamental support is limited, there are still policy expectations and strong price - support intentions from upstream enterprises. One should pay attention to the price changes of polysilicon and silicon wafers and policy implementation. Be wary of market pull - backs if spot prices weaken or policies fall short of expectations [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase of 6413 thousand barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories in the week ending November 7, 2025, and the decrease of 849 thousand barrels per day in net crude oil exports were the main sources of inventory accumulation. After the release of the STEO report this week, the weekly production forecast was raised to a new high of 13.862 million barrels per day, the crude oil processing volume increased by 717 thousand barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate rebounded from a low level to 89.4%. Gasoline and diesel inventories continued to decline but at a slower pace, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased. However, the single - week data has limited indication [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: increased by 6413 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 5202 thousand barrels in the previous period [4][6]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: decreased by 346 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 30 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 798 thousand barrels, compared with 498 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 945 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 4729 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US diesel inventory change: decreased by 637 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 643 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US jet fuel inventory change: increased by 1119 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 277 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US fuel oil inventory change: increased by 1226 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 84 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): increased by 2524 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 633 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production: 13.862 million barrels per day, compared with 13.651 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US refined product apparent demand: 20.77 million barrels per day, compared with 20.356 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US gasoline apparent demand: 9.028 million barrels per day, compared with 8.874 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US diesel apparent demand: 4.018 million barrels per day, compared with 3.71 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. Import and Export Data - US crude oil imports: 5.222 million barrels per day, compared with 5.924 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US crude oil exports: 2.816 million barrels per day, compared with 4.367 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. Refinery Data - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 15.973 million barrels per day, compared with 15.256 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US refinery utilization rate: 89.4%, compared with 86% in the previous period [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On November 13, gold and silver prices broke through strongly. Gold entered a trend - accelerating phase after breaking through $4200, and silver reached a new high. The rise was driven by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts, data vacuum, and tight supply - demand patterns [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Key Information - President Trump signed a bill to end the longest government shutdown in US history. The House voted to restart food aid, pay federal employees, and restore the air traffic control system [2]. - 80% of surveyed economists believe the Fed will cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points next month to support the weak labor market [2]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping met with King Felipe VI of Spain, expressing China's willingness to build a comprehensive strategic partnership with Spain [2]. Price Logic - **Gold**: After breaking through $4200, gold entered a trend - strengthening phase, catalyzed by the reinforcement of interest rate cut expectations, data vacuum amplifying weak economic pricing, and the approaching inflection point of the balance sheet. Expectations of a December interest rate cut advanced, real interest rates declined, and the dollar's rebound was limited [3]. - **Silver**: The Shanghai silver futures main contract reached a new high, and London silver also rose. The rise was due to the return of interest rate cut trading, a clear path of balance - sheet expansion, and tight spot supply. High lease rates indicated a tight spot balance, and silver's relative elasticity to gold remained high [3]. Outlook - Attention should be paid to the release schedule of US employment and inflation data from September - October and the policy inclination of Fed officials' speeches. If the December interest rate cut path is confirmed and there are further balance - sheet expansion signals, precious metals will remain in an upward - trending macro window. The price ranges to watch are [4150 - 4320] dollars per ounce for London gold and [52 - 55] dollars per ounce for London silver [4]. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The commodity index was 2269.39, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index was 2577.33, up 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2223.17, down 0.01% [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On November 13, 2025, the precious metals index was 3445.50, with a daily increase of 2.43%, a 5 - day increase of 5.93%, a 1 - month increase of 1.07%, and a year - to - date increase of 55.73% [46]. - **PPI Commodity Index**: The PPI commodity index was 1352.02, up 0.54% [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The global oil market is facing an increasingly imbalanced supply - demand situation, with supply growing and demand growth being mediocre compared to historical standards. The market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply in 2026, and the price of crude oil will be volatile in the short - term [2][8]. - The cancellation of India's domestic certification for 14 chemical imports will bring direct incremental exports for some chemicals, but the exact increase needs further exploration. A refinery accident in South China will lead to a reduction in the supply of aromatics, olefins, and refined oil [3]. - Most energy and chemical products are expected to maintain a volatile and consolidating trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and policy changes [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Crude Oil - **Market News**: Trump lifted restrictions on oil exploration in the Alaska National Petroleum Reserve. EIA data showed that the US continued to accumulate crude oil inventories last week, and the IEA月报 predicted an increase in the oversupply of global oil in 2026 [8]. - **Main Logic**: The oversupply situation is expected to intensify in 2026. Although the refined oil inventory pressure has eased and the crack spread is strong, providing phased support for the demand side, the supply pressure remains difficult to refute. If Russian oil supply does not decrease, the oil price may return to the oversupply pattern [8]. 3.2 Situation of Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Asphalt**: Shandong's spot prices have stabilized, and the futures price is volatile. The supply tension has been relieved, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [10]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: News of the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict drove the futures price down. The supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decrease, but the demand is still weak [11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakening of refined oil led to a decline in low - sulfur fuel oil. It is facing supply increase and demand decline, and its valuation is low, following the trend of crude oil [13]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It is in a volatile and consolidating state [30]. - **Urea**: Downstream purchases on dips, and the futures price is volatile. It is under high - inventory pressure and coal - cost support [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Although there are more device disturbances and marginal improvement in supply - demand, the oversupply pattern cannot be reversed, and the price will remain in a low - level range [22][24]. - **PX**: India's cancellation of BIS and the speculation of the US - Asia aromatics arbitrage window drove PX to strengthen against cost. It is expected to be volatile and warm in the short - term [16]. - **PTA**: India's cancellation of BIS certification is beneficial to overseas export expectations. The price will follow the cost and be volatile and warm in the short - term [17][18]. - **Short - fiber**: The cancellation of India's BIS certification has limited impact on short - fiber, and the profit is expected to be compressed under passive following [26][27]. - **Bottle - chip**: The price fluctuation has slightly increased, and the trading atmosphere has recovered. It follows the trend of upstream raw materials [28]. - **Propylene**: Downstream trading volume has increased, and PL is volatile [36]. - **PP**: After continuous decline, it has slightly stabilized. Attention should be paid to the change in maintenance [35]. - **Plastic**: The chemical sector has slightly stabilized, and plastic follows the trend [34]. - **PVC**: The cancellation of India's BIS certification may boost sentiment, but the actual export impact is limited. PVC is weakly stable [37]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, it is in a volatile state [38]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various energy and chemical products have different degrees of change, which reflects the market's expectations for future prices [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different products also show different trends, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [41]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different energy and chemical products have changed, which is affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, the actual supply and demand of new energy metals are favorable. Lithium carbonate is leading the rise, and short - long opportunities for lithium carbonate are worth attention. In the long term, the supply - side contraction expectation of silicon is strong, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The long - term supply and demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - examined [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **View**: The expectation of organic silicon production cuts suppresses the upward movement of silicon prices. The medium - term outlook is for prices to remain volatile [7]. - **Analysis of Information**: As of October 2025, domestic monthly industrial silicon production was 452,000 tons, a 7.5% month - on - month increase and a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to October, cumulative production was 3.469 million tons, a 16.7% year - on - year decrease. In September, industrial silicon exports were 70,233 tons, an 8.4% month - on - month decrease and a 7.7% year - on - year increase. From January to September 2025, cumulative exports were 561,000 tons, a 2.3% year - on - year increase. The latest domestic inventory was 461,400 tons, a 3.1% month - on - month increase. Organic silicon monomer plants plan to cut production by 30% [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the dry season in the southwest has led to a rapid decline in the number of open furnaces, and most southwest silicon plants will enter shutdown and maintenance. Northwest supply has shown small fluctuations with no obvious increase. On the demand side, the demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon in the southwest is expected to decline slightly in November. If the organic silicon production cuts are implemented, demand will also fall. The increase in aluminum alloy demand is limited. The continuous reduction of industrial silicon warehouse receipts provides some support to the futures market [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **View**: Silicon wafer enterprises have jointly supported prices, and polysilicon prices have stopped falling and rebounded. The medium - term outlook is for wide - range volatility [8]. - **Analysis of Information**: The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9,130 lots, a decrease of 720 lots from the previous value. From January to September 2025, domestic new photovoltaic installations were 240.27GW, a 49.35% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Main Logic**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has refuted false rumors, and silicon wafer enterprises have jointly supported prices, which has stopped the decline of polysilicon prices. From August to October, polysilicon production has recovered to over 130,000 tons, but it will contract in November due to the dry season. On the demand side, photovoltaic installations have declined since June, and downstream demand may weaken in November. Overall, there is still pressure on the supply and demand of polysilicon, but production will decrease during the dry season, and policy expectations remain, so prices are expected to remain in wide - range volatility [10]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **View**: The pattern of strong supply and demand continues, and lithium prices are oscillating at high levels. The short - term outlook is for prices to oscillate strongly [11]. - **Analysis of Information**: On November 13, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.46% to 87,840 yuan/ton, and the total open interest increased by 33,593 lots to 1,038,019 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to 84,350 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 900 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton. Australian lithium miner Liontown will conduct its first auction of 10,000 tons of lithium spodumene concentrate on November 19, 2025 [11]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand, and inventory is expected to continue to decline from November to December. However, supply expectations are unstable, which may cause large price fluctuations. SMM monthly production has continued to increase significantly, but there is a shortage of ore, which restricts lithium salt supply. Apparent demand is currently good, and production schedules from November to December are expected to remain strong. Social inventory is continuing to decline, and warehouse receipts have recently stabilized. In the medium - to - short - term, the resumption of production at Jiuxiawo is the key factor affecting the balance sheet. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on dips [12]. 3.2 Market Monitoring 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No detailed content provided. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No detailed content provided. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No detailed content provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 13, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2,269.39, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index was 2,577.33, up 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2,223.17, down 0.01%; the PPI commodity index was 1,352.02, up 0.54%. The new energy commodity index was 433.60, with a daily increase of 0.89%, a 5 - day increase of 3.31%, a 1 - month increase of 7.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.14% [54][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end of the US government shutdown has boosted investors' optimism, and the macro - outlook is expected to be stable. The raw material supply remains tight and is spreading to the smelting end. The actual supply - demand of base metals is slightly weak, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to tighten. It is optimistic about the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin. In the short - and medium - term, supply disruptions support base metal prices, but weak actual demand may limit price increases. [2] - The report provides individual views on various non - ferrous metals: copper prices are expected to oscillate and recover; alumina prices will maintain an oscillating trend; aluminum prices will continue to rise; aluminum alloy prices will oscillate upwards; zinc prices will oscillate at a high level; lead prices will oscillate upwards; nickel prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; stainless steel prices will oscillate; tin prices will rise significantly. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Market Views Copper - Macro factors: The signing of the temporary appropriation bill by Trump has revived market optimism, pulling up copper prices. - Supply - demand: Copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, processing fees are low, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have risen. The production of electrolytic copper has declined, and terminal demand is weak, but the acceptance of copper prices by downstream users is increasing. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. [7] Alumina - Information: Inventory is accumulating rapidly, and spot prices are stable. - Main logic: High - cost production capacity has fluctuations, and the supply contraction is not obvious. The market is in a state of over - supply, but the valuation is low, so the price may fluctuate. - Outlook: Alumina prices will maintain an oscillating trend. [7] Aluminum - Information: The price has increased, inventory has decreased slightly, and exports have declined. - Main logic: The macro - environment is positive, the domestic supply is at a high level with some restrictions, and overseas supply has disturbances. The terminal demand is stable, and inventory has decreased slightly. - Outlook: In the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and the price center may rise in the medium - term. [9][10][11] Aluminum Alloy - Information: The price has increased, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. - Main logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost support is strong. The supply is affected by various factors, and demand has marginally improved. - Outlook: The price is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short - and medium - term. [12][13] Zinc - Information: The export window has opened, and the supply of zinc ore has become looser. - Main logic: The macro - environment is optimistic, the short - term supply of zinc ore is loose, and the smelting profit is good. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is average. - Outlook: Zinc prices will oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the long - term. [14][17] Lead - Information: The social inventory is low, and the price has increased. - Main logic: The spot premium has decreased slightly, the supply has increased, and the demand is in the peak season. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. [18][19] Nickel - Information: LME inventory is accumulating, and domestic inventory is balanced through exports. - Main logic: Market sentiment dominates the market, the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally, and the supply of nickel ore is relatively loose. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. [20][23] Stainless Steel - Information: Nickel iron prices have declined, and inventory has decreased slightly. - Main logic: The cost support has weakened, production has increased, and demand is in the off - season. - Outlook: Stainless steel prices will maintain an interval oscillation. [24][25] Tin - Information: Supply disruptions are continuous, and prices have increased significantly. - Main logic: Supply disruptions in Wa State and Indonesia have tightened the supply, and the domestic ore supply is also tight. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. [26][27] II. Market Monitoring There is no specific content provided for market monitoring in the text, so it cannot be summarized. III. Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index increased by 0.47% to 2269.39, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.54% to 2577.33, the industrial products index decreased by 0.01% to 2223.17, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.54% to 1352.02. - Plate Index: The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.67% on November 13, 2025, with a 5 - day increase of 1.51%, a 1 - month increase of 2.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.77%. [149][150]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is recommended for a dumbbell - style allocation, while the bond market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index continued to reach a 10 - year high, with the price - rising chain actively advancing. Power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and basic chemicals led the gains, driven by factors such as increased demand for lithium batteries from energy storage, policy support for new energy integration, and a rebound in international precious metal prices. The preferred allocation of the price - rising chain is gradually being realized, and the cost - effectiveness of value factor allocation has increased [3][7]. - **Data**: IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month basis points were - 8.47, - 1.07, - 19.89, - 24.58 respectively, with changes of - 7.57, - 3.56, - 0.64, 3.6 points compared to the previous trading day; their inter - period spreads (current - month - next - month) were 16.6, 3.8, 66.4, 87.6 points, with changes of - 0.4, - 0.2, - 2.4, - 0.8 points; and their positions changed by - 13919, - 1167, - 19353, - 20677 lots respectively [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold a combination of dividend ETF and IM long positions [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Conditions**: After the market recovered, the trading volume of each option variety showed a slight weakening trend. The weighted implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options decreased by 1.18%, and the position PCR of each variety strengthened, indicating a warming of market sentiment. However, from a weekly perspective, the varieties were weak first and then strong, still at a weekly high. Due to the recent rotation of market styles and the lack of a clear capital main line, it is recommended to continue to hold covered options to increase returns [3][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold covered options [7][8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Conditions**: On the previous day, treasury bond futures fell across the board. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts changed by - 0.10%, - 0.08%, - 0.01%, and - 0.26% respectively. The bond market was weak, affected by the rebound of the A - share market and the rebound of commodity - related varieties. The overnight shibor rate was 1.3150%, down 10.00 basis points, indicating relatively abundant market liquidity. The central bank achieved a net injection of 9.72 billion yuan through 19 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, which helped to stabilize market expectations. However, the bond market interest rate rose, and the decline of treasury bond futures may be mainly due to the improvement of market risk preference. Currently, after the treasury bond trading, the bond market has been in a volatile state, and the focus of market speculation is when and how the redemption new rules will be implemented [4][8]. - **Data**: Data on trading volume, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis points of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts are provided, along with their daily changes [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, expect a slightly stronger and volatile trend; for hedging strategies, pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels; for basis strategies, focus on positive arbitrage strategies and basis widening; for curve strategies, appropriately pay attention to curve steepening [9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - Economic data such as China's new RMB loans, social financing scale, M2 money supply growth rate from January to October 2025 are presented, along with predicted and actual values. Data for China's October social consumer goods retail总额 annual rate and above - scale industrial added value annual rate are yet to be released [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The central bank announced that in the first 10 months, RMB loans increased by 1.497 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increment accumulated to 3.09 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 383 billion yuan. M2, M1, and M0 data are also provided [11]. - The Financial Regulatory总局 will release a revised "Management Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans" to support corporate mergers, acquisitions, and transformations. It is also researching policies to promote the high - quality development of science and technology insurance [12]. - US President Trump signed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending a 43 - day government shutdown [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The contradictions in the black产业链 are still limited, and the steel market continues the pattern of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The inventory of rebar is decreasing, while the destocking of hot - rolled coils is not smooth. The increase in Tangshan's hot metal production corresponds to the previous concentrated resumption of blast furnaces, but considering the arrival of the maintenance season, hot metal output is expected to decline, and iron ore inventory will continue to increase marginally. Coke has no prominent contradictions and maintains a small - scale destocking. Although coking coal inventory has increased, it is mainly in the Mongolian coal import segment, and the overall inventory is low, so the downward pressure on coal prices is limited. Overall, the current industry's supply - demand situation is weakening marginally, and the short - term oscillation trend remains unchanged. If there are still positive releases from the macro and policy fronts in the later stage, attention can be paid to potential phased upward opportunities [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - After the resumption of work in Tangshan's blast furnaces last week, the output of hot metal in Tangshan has increased, driving up the national hot metal output. However, with the arrival of the steel mill maintenance season, especially in northern steel mills, maintenance plans have been announced one after another. Therefore, it is expected that hot metal output will continue to decline, and iron ore is likely to accumulate inventory, putting pressure on ore prices. In the short term, ore prices will maintain an oscillatory operation. The fundamentals of scrap steel show weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will oscillate following the finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. Coupled with strong cost support, the expectation of a fourth round of price increases is high. The coke futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supplementary effect is limited. Although the downstream procurement is gradually slowing down, the fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported. However, the futures price is still suppressed by finished products, and it is expected that coking coal prices will oscillate [3] 3.3 Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand situation is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is also relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, and the bottom support is obvious. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][6][14] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the futures price oscillates at a low level. The spot market trading is average, mainly with low - price transactions. Recently, the profits of steel mills and electric furnaces are poor, the steel production has decreased significantly, and the demand has also declined. The overall steel inventory continues to decrease, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year, and there are still contradictions in the fundamentals. In the off - season, the demand is under pressure to weaken, and the futures valuation is low, with limited downward space. Attention should be paid to the potential upward driving force from the macro and policy aspects [7] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The hot metal output has significantly recovered, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The spot price has weakened. The overseas mine shipping is relatively stable, and the arrival of ships has decreased. The daily average hot metal output has recovered, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The port inventory has increased, and the overall inventory pressure is gradually accumulating. Although there is a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal, the short - term increase in hot metal and the un - released restocking demand may lead to a short - term oscillatory strengthening. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and hot metal demand changes [7] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The daily consumption of steel mills has slightly decreased, and the price oscillates. The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and the demand is also weak. The total daily consumption of 255 steel mills has slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. It is expected that the short - term spot price will oscillate following the finished products [8] 3.5.4 Coke - The supply continues to decline, and the hot metal output has increased. The futures price oscillates at a low level. The supply has decreased due to high costs, environmental protection requirements, and some coke oven maintenance. The demand has increased as some blast furnaces have resumed full - production. The upstream coke enterprise inventory remains low. In the off - season, the supply - demand is weak, but the demand support still exists, and the fundamentals have few contradictions. After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, the demand for coke is still supported, and the expectation of a fourth - round price increase is high. The futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [8][10][11] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The supply recovery is limited, and the upstream inventory has slightly increased. The futures price oscillates at a low level. The supply is still tight due to production capacity restrictions in some coal mines. The Mongolian coal import is at a high level, but the high - quality resources are still scarce. The coke production has declined, and the downstream procurement has slowed down, but the upstream coal mine inventory has slightly increased with little pressure. The spot price is still firm. It is expected that the coking coal supply will remain tight, and the price will oscillate [12] 3.5.6 Glass - The destocking this week is limited. Attention should be paid to whether supply reduction through cold - repair can promote upstream destocking. The macro environment is neutral. The short - term supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is high, suppressing the price. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [14] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - The spot trading is good, and the futures price oscillates. The macro environment is neutral. The supply has limited changes, and the demand is stable. The industry is in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The cost support has strengthened, but the downstream demand is declining, and the expected surplus is intensifying. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate. In the long term, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [14] 3.5.8 Ferromanganese - Silicon - The tender price of HBIS is flat, and the supply pressure is difficult to relieve. The cost increase supports the bottom of the futures price, but the market supply - demand is loose, and the price increase driving force is insufficient. The downstream demand is expected to decline, and the new production capacity is about to be put into use, so the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level around the cost [16] 3.5.9 Ferrosilicon - The pricing of HBIS has slightly increased, but the price is under pressure due to loose supply - demand. The cost support has strengthened, but the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price increase driving force is limited. The production reduction is limited, and the market destocking is difficult. The downstream demand is expected to decline. It is expected that the futures price will operate at a low level around the cost [16][17] 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2269.39, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index is 2577.33, up 0.54%; the industrial product index is 2223.17, down 0.01%; the PPI commodity index is 1352.02, up 0.54% [100] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on November 13, 2025, is 1983.80, with a daily decline of 0.04%, a decline of 0.30% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.57% in the past month, and a decline of 5.90% since the beginning of the year [101]