投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-1-29 棉价增仓上涨，关注前高压力 油脂：油脂高位震荡 蛋白粕：双粕跟随外盘走高，关注阿根廷天气变化 玉米/淀粉：价格偏弱震荡 生猪：猪源充裕，价格弱势 天然橡胶：关注前高压力 合成橡胶：板块氛围回暖带动盘面反弹 棉花：棉价增仓上涨，关注前高压力 白糖：糖价窄幅波动 纸浆：基本面弱势，盘面陷入横向波动 双胶纸：现货持稳，盘面区间运行 原木：基本面边际好转，原木短期偏强震荡 【异动品种】 棉花观点：棉价增仓上涨，关注前⾼压⼒ 信息：根据万得，1.28，郑棉05合约收于14940元/吨，环比+375元/吨； 25/26年度10209张，环比+4张。 逻辑：昨日郑棉主力合约增仓上涨，增仓近3.6万手。近期基本面整体变 化不大，更多为盘面技术性调整后，下方支撑逐步夯实，情绪好转吸引资 金推动上涨。基本面方面整体较为健康，新棉公检处于收尾阶段，本年度 累计进口量仍处于偏低水平，棉花商业库存累库速度不快，表需较好。临 近春节，下游原料采购备货增加，但开机率季节性下降。我们对中长期看 法维持偏强，核心驱动为两点，25/26年度中国棉花供 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - On January 28, equity index and CGB futures rose slightly, and most commodities showed higher performance, with energy & chemicals strengthening and precious metals leading the rises. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.7% and IH dropped 0.0%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.07% and TF rose 0.06%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Aluminum, SCFIS(Europe), and Bitumen, while the top three decliners were Lithium Carbonate, Poly-Silicon, and Palladium [10][11][12]. - Aluminum prices are expected to trend higher due to positive macro outlook and tight supply - demand expectations, and cast aluminum alloy prices will likely continue to fluctuate upward with reinforced cost - support logic. It is recommended to seek long positions in primary aluminum and cast aluminum alloy on dips [20][22]. - Bitumen's absolute price is in an overvalued range, and its medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to pull back due to factors such as ample long - term supply and weak demand [29][30][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 28, equity index futures & CGB futures rose slightly. Most commodities showed higher performance, with energy & chemicals strengthening and precious metals leading the rises. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.7% and IH dropped 0.0%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.07% and TF rose 0.06%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Aluminum (up 5.8% with 16.3% month - on - month open interest increase), SCFIS(Europe) (up 4.4% with 3.9% month - on - month open interest increase), and Bitumen (up 4.0% with 7.3% month - on - month open interest increase). The top three decliners were Lithium Carbonate (down 3.9% with 2.7% month - on - month open interest decrease), Poly - Silicon (down 2.3% with 0.1% month - on - month open interest decrease), and Palladium (down 1.8% with 8.7% month - on - month open interest increase) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Aluminum & Cast Aluminum Alloy - On January 28, the front - month contract of aluminium surged 5.8% to 25,640 yuan/ton (SHFE), and the front - month contract of cast aluminium alloy jumped 3.4% to 23,785 yuan/ton (SHFE). News factors include the sharp surge in European and US natural gas prices, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and stock - futures linkage. Fundamentally, for primary aluminium, overseas smelting faces cost and power supply issues, and the domestic and global markets are expected to shift into a deficit in 2026. For cast aluminium alloy, scrap aluminium circulation is tight, and the cost - side support is strong. It is recommended to seek long positions in both on dips, with attention paid to the upper end of the range at 28,000 yuan/ton for SHFE primary aluminium front - month contract and 26,500 yuan/ton for cast aluminium alloy front - month contract [16][17][20]. 1.2.3 Bitumen - On January 28, the front - month contract of bitumen surged 4.0% to 3,410 yuan/ton (SHFE). Bitumen futures fluctuate in tandem with crude oil, and its absolute price is in an overvalued range, with the medium - to - long - term valuation poised for a pullback due to factors such as OPEC+ production suspension, Venezuela's crude oil production increase, high bitumen output in Hainan, weak supply and demand, and high inventory [29][30][31]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - In 2026, China's tax authorities will deepen tax system reform, optimize the tax structure, expand local tax sources and boost local fiscal autonomy. Regulators no longer require most developers to submit monthly reports on the "Three Red Lines" indicators, but some troubled developers need to report financial metrics regularly. China will hold the 2026 APEC First Senior Officials' Meeting in Guangzhou from February 1 to 10 [36]. 2.2 Industry News - Market talk of a proposed T+3 rule for major quant funds' program trading is unsubstantiated, as several top 10 - billion - yuan quant PE firms confirmed no relevant regulatory notice has been received to date [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - As of the close on January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 694.8 yuan/gram, with a decline of -0.17%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 504 yuan/gram, with a decline of -1.80% [1] - Due to geopolitical risks and a weakening US dollar, platinum prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly bullish in the short term, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips. In the long term, the supply side in South Africa has risks, while the demand side is in a structural expansion stage [2] - Due to the weakening US dollar, geopolitical disturbances, and supply uncertainties, palladium prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly bullish in the short term, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, the short - term spot shortage supports the price [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - **Price**: As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 694.8 yuan/gram, with a decline of -0.17% [1] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a weakening US dollar support platinum prices. However, the nomination of the new Fed chairman and US tariff expectations on platinum and palladium bring short - term uncertainties. In the long term, South Africa has supply risks, and the demand side is in a structural expansion stage [2] - **Outlook**: Volatile and slightly bullish. The healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro expectations are expected to drive platinum prices to be volatile and slightly bullish [2] Palladium - **Price**: As of January 26, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 504 yuan/gram, with a decline of -1.80% [1] - **Main Logic**: In addition to the weakening US dollar and geopolitical disturbances, the supply side has significant uncertainties. The US investigation report on Russian palladium imports has not been released, and the spot shortage supports the price. The demand side faces structural pressure [3] - **Outlook**: Volatile and slightly bullish. The spot shortage and relatively favorable macro environment are expected to drive palladium prices to be volatile and slightly bullish [3] Commodity Index - **Composite Index**: No specific data provided [51] - **Specialty Index**: The commodity index was 2529.70, up 1.21%; the commodity 20 index was 2919.66, up 1.52%; the industrial products index was 2378.08, up 0.89% [52] - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on January 28, 2026, had a daily increase of 1.47%, a 5 - day increase of 3.19%, a 1 - month increase of 8.00%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.61% [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver are operating in high - level oscillations, with increased volatility risks. Gold remains strong due to safe - haven and allocation demand, while silver needs to be cautious of retracement risks after a rapid rise [1]. - Gold maintains resilience at high levels, with its safe - haven and allocation attributes being dominant. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the amplifying effect of risk events on volatility [1]. - Silver has entered a rhythm - repair phase after a rapid rise. Although it still has price elasticity, the retracement risk increases under high - volatility conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Gold - **Logic**: In the context where precious metals are in the spotlight, gold gets strong support in the high - level range. During the Asian session, due to Trump's remarks on South Korea's tariffs, regional market uncertainty increased, equity assets were under pressure, and gold and silver rose slightly, reflecting the marginal return of safe - haven demand. Compared with other precious metals, gold's price is more stable, with a significantly lower volatility than silver, and allocation - type funds regard gold as a priority choice, supporting its strength at high levels [1]. - **Outlook**: In an environment of rising global uncertainty and repeated switching of risk preferences, the safe - haven and allocation value of gold still has resilience. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility caused by geopolitical and trade policy disturbances, but the medium - term support logic remains unchanged [1]. Silver - **Logic**: After the previous sharp rise, the market is divided on the short - term sustainability of silver. From the capital side, the global silver ETF holdings decreased by about 2.4% this month when the price hit a new high, the largest monthly decline since 2022, indicating that some allocation - type funds have started to take profits and wait and see. In terms of inventory, the silver inventory in COMEX warehouses dropped to the lowest level since March last year after the tariff expectations cooled down, falling for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting that the phased hoarding formed due to policy expectations is being digested. From the demand structure, about half of silver's demand comes from the industrial end. After the price enters the three - digit range, downstream enterprises may adjust through technology or postpone procurement to cope with the high - price environment, which restricts short - term demand. At the same time, the single - day increase of silver has reached the historical fluctuation range many times, and the volatility has disturbed ETFs and some professional investors, but it has not completely changed the trend - trading pattern [2]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - term, silver can still benefit from the macro - narrative and safe - haven environment dominated by gold, but in the short - term, it is more likely to digest the excessive rise through high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the trading rhythm during the decline of volatility [2]. Commodity Index - **Specialty Index**: The commodity index is 2503.03, up 1.13%; the commodity 20 index is 2879.55, up 1.44%; the industrial products index is 2369.84, up 0.40%; the PPI commodity index is 1461.06, up 0.19% [42]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on January 26, 2026, was 4916.75, with a daily increase of 4.46%, a 5 - day increase of 10.89%, a 1 - month increase of 25.18%, and a year - to - date increase of 28.57% [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Middle - East situation remains uncertain, and the chemical industry is gradually entering the seasonal off - season, continuing to fluctuate. Crude oil is still affected by geopolitics, and the relationship between the US and Iran is a focus of the crude oil market. The increase in US natural gas and middle - distillates due to the cold wave has temporarily stopped, and coal prices are likely to be dragged down by weakening demand [1]. - The chemical industry showed high volatility on Tuesday. Styrene and polyolefins generally remained strong, while polyester chain varieties declined significantly. The current inventory build - up in the chemical industry chain is a seasonal one, and investors should view the chemical industry with a fluctuating mindset [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook for Different Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm [1][5]. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about the Iranian situation, the slow recovery of the Kazakhstan oilfield, and the US cold wave have pushed up supply concerns. Although the API data showed a decrease in US crude and gasoline inventories last week, the high inventory of US petroleum products indicated by EIA data is still pessimistic for the fundamentals. The current crude oil market supply is still in surplus, and the short - term rhythm is dominated by the Iranian situation [5]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The fundamentals are in supply surplus, but geopolitical situations in Iran and Russia may potentially disrupt supply expectations frequently, and the slow recovery of the Kazakhstan oilfield also provides short - term support [5]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices fluctuate following crude oil [7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the US is cooperating with Venezuela to increase its oil production, which will lead to abundant long - term asphalt supply and a significant negative impact on asphalt. The repeated US - Iran situation provides cost - side support for asphalt futures prices. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory is accumulating [7]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The absolute price of asphalt is in the over - valued range, and its long - term valuation is expected to decline [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Part of the geopolitical premium of fuel oil has declined [7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases, and the US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, leading to a strong expectation of a surge in heavy - oil supply, which will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. The US welcomes Iran to negotiate, causing part of the fuel - oil geopolitical premium to decline. In the long - term, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the replacement of fuel - oil power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics in the Middle - East are negative factors [7]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The expected increase in Venezuela's oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle - East [7]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The sharp rise in natural gas may support low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. - **Main Logic**: The significant increase in US natural gas prices drives the crack spread of refined oil products and boosts the expectation of low - sulfur fuel - oil power generation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is supported. However, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Currently, its valuation is low and it is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [10]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green - fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but its current low valuation makes it follow crude - oil fluctuations [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled, and PX has reduced positions and declined [13]. - **Main Logic**: The weak trend of international oil prices and the obvious cooling of the chemical - product sector have led to a significant reduction in PX positions and a decline in price. The weak real - world situation makes it difficult to support high prices, and upstream raw materials face short - term correction pressure due to the seasonal weakening of terminal demand [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX prices will fluctuate under the guidance of sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support level of around 7,200 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract, and the PXN is expected to remain within the range of [340, 380] US dollars/ton [13]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Suppressed by the weakening of commodities, TA has significantly reduced positions and declined [14]. - **Main Logic**: The cooling of the commodity market sentiment has led to a significant reduction in PTA positions and a decline. There are no significant changes in the supply and demand side, but the downstream polyester factories are accelerating production cuts, and the seasonal inventory build - up pressure of PTA has increased. The PTA price spread and month - to - month spread are both weak, and the market is worried about the inventory build - up pressure around the Spring Festival. The PTA disk profit has corrected from a high level [14]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the TA05 - 09 month - to - month spread, and the short - term PTA processing fee may correct to some extent. The industry can choose to hedge to lock in production profits [15]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The game between expectations and reality is intertwined, and pure benzene fluctuates [16]. - **Main Logic**: The recent rise is due to downstream profit - locking driving up the price of pure benzene and the supplementary rise in the context of the long - allocation atmosphere of aromatics. Pure benzene is in a transition period where the fundamentals may change, and the real - world pressure is still large. Although the supply - demand gap from January to February is still positive, it is expected to achieve a small inventory reduction in March [17]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. High inventory still needs time to be digested, but the fundamentals in the first quarter are improving quarter - on - quarter. It is expected to fluctuate under the strong sentiment of energy - chemical commodities [17]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Driven by capital behavior and export stories, styrene has risen recently [18]. - **Main Logic**: The recent strong rise of styrene is due to capital behavior under the expectation of the long - cycle bottom of the chemical industry and the rotation of the commodity - market sector. In addition, the supply - demand of styrene has been tight recently, and the inventory - build - up expectation in January has turned into inventory reduction. The seasonal inventory - build - up height in February is also expected to decrease [18]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Although there is a tendency for profit compression during the seasonal inventory build - up, the impact of exports and better fundamentals than pure benzene are expected to limit the decline [18]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Lack of confidence among bulls and no continuous positive factors, ethylene glycol has adjusted and corrected [19]. - **Main Logic**: The poor commodity sentiment has led to a high - level correction in the polyester chain. Bulls in ethylene glycol lack confidence, and the real - world inventory build - up pressure is huge. The supply reduction is slow, and multiple sets of equipment are still in the process of resuming production. Coupled with the accelerating production cuts of downstream polyester factories, the high inventory suppresses the upward price elasticity [20]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price will maintain a range - bound adjustment within the range of [3,800 - 4,050] yuan/ton. Short - term attention should be paid to the operation within the range of [- 120, - 85] yuan/ton for EG05 - 09 [20]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Cost support has collapsed, and terminal demand has declined [21]. - **Main Logic**: The sharp decline in the prices of upstream polyester raw materials has led to the collapse of cost support, and the price of short - fiber has followed the cost decline. The terminal has gradually entered the shutdown stage, and the subsequent operating rate of spinning mills will also gradually decline. Without new positive factors, the market may weaken and consolidate in the near future [22]. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will follow the upstream for consolidation, and the processing fee will be slightly under pressure [22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates following costs, and the support for the lower limit of profit has increased [23]. - **Main Logic**: The short - term poor performance of raw - material prices and the general commodity sentiment have led to a downward shift in the center of the polyester bottle - chip price. The processing fee has slightly retracted, but the supply of some goods is tight, and the short - term downward space of the polyester bottle - chip market is limited [23]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value fluctuates following raw materials, and the support for the lower limit of the processing fee has increased [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is a long - short game in the coastal area, and methanol fluctuates within a range [25]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, 2026, methanol fluctuated weakly. The fundamental situation of oversupply in the inland market remains unchanged, and the inventory of ports has returned to the accumulation trend. The coastal market is affected by high port inventories, and the inventory - reduction pressure has further increased. Although the overseas situation is uncertain, the short - term trading may still be mainly based on the overseas situation [26]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The Iranian situation is still undecided, and there is still uncertainty in overseas equipment disruptions. Although the actual support is limited in the fundamentals after excluding overseas factors, the short - term trading is likely to be mainly based on the progress of the overseas situation, and the disk may still have upward space, generally showing a range - bound fluctuation [26]. 3.1.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: Orders are accumulating before the Spring Festival, and urea fluctuates and consolidates [27]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, 2026, the supply was sufficient as the daily output increased. The demand side showed that agricultural fertilizer - preparation demand was appropriate as the Spring Festival approached, while industrial demand was mainly cautious and small - scale. The inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline, and the spot market had new orders, with the overall urea market still in consolidation and a slightly stronger tendency [27][30]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Currently, it is the stage of order accumulation for urea enterprises before the Spring Festival. The price is not suitable for significant increases for order collection, while there is emotional and demand support at the lower price level. The short - term market will fluctuate slightly, waiting for the completion of enterprise orders before there may be a change [27]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: Driven by raw - material and macro factors, the upward space of plastics is limited [32]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, the plastics main contract fluctuated. The oil price fluctuated, and the US crude - oil production was affected by the cold wave but the impact was short - term. The high inventory of US petroleum products was still pessimistic for the fundamentals. The increase in natural - gas prices driven by the cold wave had limited sustainability. After the rebound, the profits of various production methods were repaired, but the spot - price increase was limited. The demand for plastics was in the off - season, and there was still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support in the future [32]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [32]. 3.1.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: Slight increase in maintenance, and the upward space of PP is limited [33]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, the PP main contract fluctuated. The oil - price situation was similar to that of LLDPE, and the profits of various PP production methods were repaired, limiting the upward space. The PP downstream was in the off - season, and the trading volume had recently decreased. After the price rebound, the downstream confidence was slightly restored, and there was still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The short - term maintenance support still existed, and future attention should be paid to PDH and the impact of profit changes on maintenance willingness [33]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [33]. 3.1.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: Supply is tight, and PL fluctuates [34]. - **Main Logic**: On January 27, the PL main contract fluctuated. The PDH maintenance expectation still provided support. The overall propylene supply was tight, and enterprise inventories were low, with some offers continuing to rise. The downstream buying was active, and the actual - order auction premium still existed, pushing up the transaction center. The short - term powder - material profit fluctuated slightly, and the downstream demand in the off - season provided limited support [34]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuation [34]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Supported by low valuation, PVC fluctuates [39]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the tense geopolitical situation may potentially disrupt supply and boost the commodity - market sentiment. At the micro level, the low - price "export - grabbing" of PVC still exists, and the decline in caustic - soda prices has dragged down the comprehensive profit of PVC's chlor - alkali. The upstream production is normal, the downstream start - up will seasonally weaken, the export volume continued to increase last week, the calcium - carbide supply decreased while demand increased, and the caustic - soda supply and demand were weak, with the PVC dynamic cost rising [39]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. In the short term, the "export - grabbing" and low - valuation of PVC support the market, but the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the market will fluctuate [39]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Profits are significantly compressed, and caustic - soda positions should be closed at low prices [40]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the tense geopolitical situation may potentially disrupt supply and boost the commodity - market sentiment. At the micro level, the weak situation of caustic soda continues, the inventory is still accumulating, and the spot price is under pressure. The alumina marginal - device profit is poor, the Weiqiao's caustic - soda inventory is high, the new alumina production capacity in Guangxi in the first quarter of 2026 will marginally boost the demand for caustic soda, the non - aluminum start - up is weakening, the upstream production has little change, and the short - term liquid - chlorine price is stable but the risk of price decline increases approaching the Spring Festival, with the dynamic cost of Shandong caustic soda rising [40]. - **Outlook**: Weak fluctuation. Before the Spring Festival, upstream enterprises actively reduce inventory, and the caustic - soda spot price is still under pressure. Considering the increasing risk of liquid - chlorine price decline before the Spring Festival, caustic - soda short positions should be closed at low prices [40]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Data on the cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest basis values, changes, and the quantity of warehouse receipts [43]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads of different varieties and different contract months, such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc., are given, along with their latest values and changes [44]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content is provided for this part in the report. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities on January 27, 2026, was 2,499.53, a decrease of 0.14%. The commodity 20 - index was 2,875.98, a decrease of 0.12%, and the industrial - product index was 2,357.14, a decrease of 0.54% [286]. - The energy index on January 27, 2026, was 1,138.61, with a daily decline of 2.43%, a 5 - day increase of 2.69%, a 1 - month increase of 3.12%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.79% [288].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current black building materials market is under real - world pressure, with the futures market running weakly. The slow resumption of steel mills, high iron ore shipments and inventories, and the weakening support of coal - coke restocking all contribute to the weak market. In the off - season, the steel inventory accumulation pressure is increasing, the cost support is loosening, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress prices. Although there is downward pressure on the short - term futures market, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Iron ore arrivals have decreased, temporarily alleviating supply pressure, but inventory pressure is still increasing. There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side due to weather. Scrap steel supply has rebounded, and daily consumption is expected to decline [2] - **Demand**: Before the festival, restocking supports ore prices, but the actual supply - demand situation on both sides remains to be verified. Scrap steel consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and there are still expectations of steel mill复产 and winter restocking demand. The contradiction in the supply - demand structure is limited, and spot price increases are still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [2] - **Coking Coal**: The demand side is still in the process of winter restocking, and the supply side is expected to see a decline in coal mine production near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has priced in the winter restocking, the positive driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is under pressure, but the room for further decline is limited, and it is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental contradictions. The poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise [3] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 3.5 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support has shifted downwards, and the futures market is running weakly. The spot market trading is generally weak, the steel mill profitability rate is improving, the iron water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the demand is seasonally weak. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and the short - term futures market still has downward pressure, but the downward space is limited [10] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and port trading has decreased month - on - month. Overseas mine shipments have increased, arrivals have weakened, and the supply side is affected by weather. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and steel mills are restocking with weak enthusiasm. Port and steel mill inventories are increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Scrap Steel**: This week's arrivals have decreased, and the spot price has risen slightly. Supply has declined slightly, demand is expected to decrease, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [12] - **Coke**: The futures market oscillates, and the cost support is strong. The steel mills are resistant to price increases, and the environmental protection disturbances are frequent. The demand side has a slight increase in iron water output, and the inventory is increasing. Spot price increases are still expected to be implemented, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12][14] - **Coking Coal**: The futures market is stable, and the supply is stable with high imports. The demand side is in the process of winter restocking, and the inventory is gradually reaching the target. After the futures market has priced in the restocking, the positive driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [15] - **Glass**: The spot price has risen month - on - month, and the futures market oscillates. The supply side has limited losses, and there is unlikely to be a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand side is weak, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, prices will be weakly oscillating; otherwise, prices will rise [16] - **Soda Ash**: The supply has increased month - on - month, and the spot contradictions are limited. The supply side has a slight increase in daily output, the demand side has a weakening trend, and the supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16] - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure is large, and the futures price is weakly sorted. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The trading atmosphere is poor, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is weak, and the trading activity suppresses the upward space. It is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Due to the approaching Fed interest rate decision, some funds took profits, leading to a price correction in the precious metals sector. As of January 27, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 705.7 yuan/gram, with a decline of -4.61%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 523 yuan/gram, with a decline of -2.08% [2]. - Platinum: In the short - term, platinum prices may continue to be volatile and on the strong side. There are opportunities for low - buying and long - positions, but investors need to control positions due to short - term uncertainties. In the future, supply in South Africa has risks, and demand in various fields is expanding, with the "rate cut + soft landing" combination amplifying long - term price elasticity. The outlook is for a volatile and strong trend [3]. - Palladium: In the short - term, palladium prices may also continue to be volatile and on the strong side, with opportunities for low - buying and long - positions. However, short - term price fluctuations need to be watched out for. Although long - term supply and demand tend to be loose, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's re - entry into the rate - cut cycle support the price bottom. The outlook is for a volatile and strong trend [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Performance - As of January 27, 2026, the GFEX platinum main contract closed at 705.7 yuan/gram, down -4.61%; the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 523 yuan/gram, down -2.08% [2]. Platinum Analysis - **Supporting Factors**: Geopolitical and trade frictions, and the strengthening of the yen putting downward pressure on the US dollar exchange rate support platinum prices [3]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Volatile and strong, with opportunities for low - buying and long - positions, but need to control positions due to short - term uncertainties [3]. - **Long - term Outlook**: Supply in South Africa has risks such as power supply and extreme weather. Demand in the automotive catalyst field is stable, the hydrogen energy industry is a future growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding. The "rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify long - term price elasticity [3]. Palladium Analysis - **Supporting Factors**: The weak US dollar, geopolitical disturbances, and the uncertainty of the US Department of Commerce's report on unforged palladium imported from Russia, which has led to a continued shortage of spot goods, support palladium prices [4]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Volatile and strong, with opportunities for low - buying and long - positions, but need to watch out for short - term price fluctuations [4]. - **Long - term Outlook**: Although long - term supply and demand tend to be loose, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's re - entry into the rate - cut cycle support the price bottom [4]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2499.53, down -0.14%; the commodity 20 index was 2875.98, down -0.12%; the industrial products index was 2357.14, down -0.54% [50]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On January 27, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2848.63, with a daily increase of +0.65%, a 5 - day increase of +1.35%, a 1 - month increase of +6.43%, and a year - to - date increase of +6.06% [52].

中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-01-28 股债趋势暂不明朗 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指期货：午后情绪回暖 股指期权：短期暂维持乐观 国债期货：债市⻓端⾛势偏弱 股指期货方面，权益市场底部回升，主要宽基指数收红居多，其中军 工、电子、传媒领涨，TMT板块全面修复，风格方面，科创板强势，哑铃 结构弱势，上涨个股数量少于下跌个股数量，个股赚钱效应不佳。展望后 市，短线走势目前仍不明朗，尽管急跌可能性不大，但近期热点板块轮动 速度过快，并拖累整体赚钱效应，叠加外围市场不确定性以及宽基ETF减 持，目前仍处于上涨过程中的休整阶段，不宜过度高估短期空间。配置 上，配置IC多单度过震荡期，机构定价权强化、通胀预期上行是其核心推 动力。 股指期权方面，昨日标的市场整体上行，日内出现一定风格切换，中 盘成长相关品种重新占优，期权市场成交量相较前一交易日略有下滑，但 整体仍位于高位区间。情绪指标方面，前一日提到各品种偏度普遍低位， 昨日有一定反弹，但主要以再度强势的500ETF、科创50ETF为主，其余品 种仍有买方资金继续博弈上行，短期情绪整体还是乐观。波动率层面，大 盘品种小幅下行，中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On January 27, 2026, equity index and CGB futures were mixed, and most commodities showed lower performance, with AU, AG, and vegetable oils rising [2][10][11]. - The profits of China's SVIA rose by 0.6% in 2025 [1][3][36]. - Hong Kong will launch offshore treasury bond futures and expand the interest rate derivatives business under the "Stock Connect" [37]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 27, equity index and CGB futures were mixed. In equity index futures, IC rose 0.6% and IF dropped 0.2%; in CGB futures, T rose 0.00% and TL dropped 0.33%. In commodity futures, most showed lower performance, with AU, AG, and vegetable oils rising. The top three gainers were Silver, RBD Palm Olein, and Tin, while the top three decliners were Platinum, PTA, and Coking Coal [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **RBD Palm Olein**: Rose 2.7% to 9,238 yuan/ton on January 27. It is set to enter a production decline season with an expected inventory destocking trend, and the market is projected to trade sideways with a bullish bias. The recent rise in crude oil prices and bullish fundamental expectations have underpinned the overall uptrend of vegetable oils. Attention should be paid to biodiesel policies and export performance in producing regions, and the arbitrage strategy of long palm oil and short rapeseed oil is recommended [15][18][19]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Coking Coal**: Dropped 3.0% to 1,116.5 yuan/ton on January 27. Demand - side winter stockpiling is still underway, and supply - side coal mines are expected to see a production decline as the holiday approaches. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally with strong spot market support, but the bullish driving force from fundamentals is limited, and the market is expected to trade sideways [22][24][25]. - **Coke**: Dropped 2.8% to 1,668.0 yuan/ton on January 27. Supported by a firm cost side, coupled with lingering expectations of steel mill resumptions and remaining demand for winter stockpiling replenishment, the coke market faces limited supply - demand structural imbalances. Spot price hikes are still expected to materialize, and the futures market is projected to track the movement of coking coal [28][32][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - In 2025, China's industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 7.3982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [36]. 2.2 Industry News - Hong Kong Chief Executive Li Jiachao stated that Hong Kong will launch offshore treasury bond futures and expand the interest rate derivatives business under the "Stock Connect" [37].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 Investment Consulting Business Qualification： CSRC License [2012] No. 669 China Commodity Futures Cross-Border Arbitrage Weekly Report 中国商品期货跨境套利周报 January 27, 2026 王含章 Wang Hanzhang 从业资格号：F03121254 Qualification No. 投资咨询号：Z0022985 Investment consulting No. 姜婧 Jiang Jing CFA 从业资格号：F3018552 Qualification No. 投资咨询号：Z0013315 Investment consulting No. 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi CFA PhD 从业资格号：F3023159 Qualification No. 投资咨询号：Z0013632 Investment consulting No. 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对 ...