中信期货有限公司 CITIC Futures Company Limited 双焦周度数据 2025年07月18日 研究员: | 会联 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | 钟宏 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | 从业资格号 F03100815 | 从业资格号 F03144159 | 从业资格号 F03118246 | | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | 投资咨询号 Z0022727 | | | 图表 2: 焦炭周度数据 | | | | | | | 分类 | 指标 | 2025-07-11 | 2025-07-18 | | 环比 | | 247家钢厂 | 日均铁水产量 | 239. 81 | 242. 44 | | 2. 63 | | | 产量 | 47. 19 | 64. 21 | | -0. 1 | | | 库存 | 637.8 | 638.99 | 1. 19 | | | ...

玻璃供需周报 2025年07月18日 冉宇蒙 从业资格号:F03144159 投资咨询号: Z0022199 | | 华北企业库存:万 | 华东企业库存:万 | 华中企业库存:万 | 华南企业库存:万 | 西南企业库存:万 | 东北企业库存:万 | 西北企业库存:万 | 全国企业库存:万 | 浮法玻璃日熔:万 | 周度产量:万重箱 | 周度表需 : 万重箱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 重組 | 重組 | 重組 | 重組 | 重組 | 重組 | 重組 | 童箱 | 座 | | | | 2025-07-18 | 865. 68 | 1406. 5 | 738.7 | 1045 | 1218.7 | 771.3 | 448 | 6493.9 | 15. 84 | 2217. 95 | 2434. 3 | | 2025-07-11 | 872. 48 | 1473.6 | 803 | 1049 | 1254 | 789. 15 | 469 | 6710.2 | 15. 84 | 2214 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash Supply and Demand Weekly Report [36] - Researchers: Hui Dian, Tao Cunhui, Ran Yumeng, Zhong Hong, Xue Yuan [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - On July 18, 2025, the national enterprise inventory was 190.56 million tons, with 78.3 million tons of light soda ash and 112.26 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 13 to July 18, 2025, the inventory in different regions and the overall national inventory showed certain fluctuations [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption Data - On July 18, 2025, the total production was 73.32 million tons, with 31.85 million tons of light soda ash and 41.47 million tons of heavy soda ash [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the production and apparent consumption of soda ash, light soda ash, and heavy soda ash showed different trends [2] Group 4: Daily Melting Data - On July 18, 2025, the total daily melting was 24.75 million tons, including 15.84 million tons of float glass and 8.91 million tons of photovoltaic glass [2] - From June 27 to July 18, 2025, the daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass also changed [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an overall view of "oscillating weakly" for the energy and chemical industry, with specific varieties having different trends such as oscillation, oscillation weakly, oscillation strongly, etc. [1][3][4] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices have fallen for three consecutive days, and the market is closely watching whether US inventories will accumulate effectively. The supply pressure of the chemical industry is increasing, and the demand has shown weakness since June, with an increasing possibility of the industry gradually weakening. [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Trends of Crude Oil and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. In the context of a relatively certain inventory accumulation expectation, oil prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly after the weakening of geopolitical disturbances. [8] - **Chemicals**: Supply has substantially increased, while demand has shown weakness since June. The probability of the chemical industry gradually weakening is increasing. For example, the supply pressure of olefins will suppress industrial profits, and the polyester chain may see a decline in direct demand for raw materials. [2] 2. Analysis of Each Variety - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental pattern of looseness remains unchanged, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly. [3][13] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - estimated stage. [8][9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. [3][9][10] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken. [3][13] - **Methanol**: The domestic operating load is low, and methanol oscillates. [3][22][23] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment has slowed down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals, with short - term pressure on urea. [3][23][24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The resumption of device production is less than expected, and ethylene glycol will continue the low - inventory pattern. [3][17][18] - **PX**: The US sanctions against Russia are less than expected, and PX oscillates and consolidates. [15] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and PTA consolidates. [15] - **Short - Fiber**: It fluctuates with raw materials, and the basis remains stable. [18][20] - **Bottle Chip**: The basis weakens slightly, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. [20][21] - **PP**: As oil prices fall, PP oscillates. [3][26] - **Plastic**: As oil prices decline, plastic oscillates and weakens. [3][25] - **Pure Benzene**: Due to the lack of confidence of styrene bulls and the decline of crude oil, pure benzene falls back. [15] - **Styrene**: The risk of cornering declines, and styrene falls. [15][16][17] - **PVC**: The sentiment cools down in stages, and PVC runs weakly. [3][28] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has reached the peak, and caustic soda oscillates. [3][28][29] 3. Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.9 with a change of - 0.03, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 48 with a change of 22. [30] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of - 1, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300. [31] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 294 with a change of 47. [32] - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: It involves the monitoring of basis and spreads of various chemical varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text. [33][45][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 16, financial futures showed mixed performance; commodity futures had narrowed fluctuations, with agricultural product futures rising and energy & chemical futures falling [2][11][14]. - The top three gainers were poly-silicon, SCFIS(Europe), and cotton, while the top three decliners were sodium hydroxide, live hog, and ferrosilicon [12][13][14]. - The European line is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias, iron ore prices are likely to be prone to rise rather than fall before market sentiment turns weak, and glass prices are expected to maintain a volatile view [25][30][36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 16, financial futures had a mixed performance; commodity futures saw narrowed fluctuations, with agricultural product futures rising and energy and chemical futures falling [11][14]. - The top three gainers were poly-silicon (up 1.5% with a 2.8% month-on-month increase in positions), SCFIS(Europe) (up 1.4% with an 8.3% month-on-month increase in positions), and cotton (up 1.2% with a 4.0% month-on-month increase in positions) [12][14]. - The top three decliners were sodium hydroxide (down 2.1% with a 7.1% month-on-month increase in positions), live hog (down 1.9% with a 1.7% month-on-month increase in positions), and ferrosilicon (down 1.7% with a 0.6% month-on-month decrease in positions) [13][14]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 SCFIS(Europe) - On July 16, SCFIS(Europe) increased by 1.4% to 1598.1 points [18][24]. - In June, export data remained resilient. China's exports in US dollars increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exports to the US fell by 16.1% with a significantly narrowed decline, and exports to the EU rose by 7.6% year-on-year [19][24]. - Spot freight rates remain resilient, shipping companies have high load rates, and there is no inflection point in spot freight rates yet. Shipping companies may announce price increases in August, and all contracts are performing relatively strongly [20][24][25]. 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On July 16, iron ore increased by 1.0% to 773 yuan/ton [28][30][31]. - Iron ore demand remains high, and fundamental bearish drivers are limited. Prices are expected to be prone to rise rather than fall before market sentiment turns weak, but short-term upward movement is limited, and prices will mainly fluctuate [28][30]. - Overseas mine shipments slightly decreased, port arrivals rebounded, steel enterprises' profits slightly improved, and molten iron output decreased but remained high year-on-year. Port inventory slightly decreased due to concentrated arrivals, and overall supply-demand contradictions are not prominent [29][30]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Glass - On July 16, glass decreased by 1.1% to 1070 yuan/ton [32][36]. - Actual demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong. In the short term, wait and see the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies exceed expectations, downstream expectations may improve and trigger a wave of stockpiling-driven increases. In the medium to long term, market-oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and prices will maintain a volatile view [32][36]. - Domestic macro urban renewal meetings have concluded with no obvious positive factors, off-season demand is falling, deep processing orders have decreased month-on-month, and raw sheet inventory days have rebounded month-on-month. There are still 2 production lines to produce glass, and daily output is on an upward trajectory [33][36]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On July 15, China and Australia signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Implementing and Reviewing the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement [38][39]. - The Symposium on Research and Consultation for Comprehensively Expanding Domestic Demand was held in Beijing on July 16 [38][39]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Iranian Foreign Minister in Tianjin on July 16 [39]. 2.2 Industry News - The Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong released the "2024 Survey on Asset and Wealth Management Activities". In 2024, the total value of assets under management soared by 13% year-on-year, and the net capital inflow surged by 81%. By the end of 2024, the total value of assets under management of Hong Kong's asset and wealth management business rose to 35.1 trillion yuan (4.53 trillion US dollars) [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China is the primary global supplier of major home appliances, with nearly half of its production capacity exported overseas, mainly to fill the supply gaps in North America, Asia, and Europe. However, the export may be affected by demand pull - forward and price increases caused by tariffs. - In 2025, the subsidy effect of China's white goods may weaken in H2, and the stabilizing property market is expected to support domestic demand resilience. Export pressure will increase, and production scheduling will decline. The slowdown in the global production and sales growth of major appliances will suppress the demand for copper and EB [2][3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. China's Home Appliance Exports - China's home appliance exports are mainly to Asian, European, and North American countries. In 2024, the total export value of China's three major white goods was $50.9 billion, with a total volume of 219 million units. Half of China's domestic capacity serves global demand. Refrigerators, washing machines, and air - conditioners exported to Europe and North America account for 45%, 52%, and 37% respectively [9][10]. - The ratio of China's domestic sales, exports, and overseas production is 3:3:4. China fills about half of North America's supply - demand gap. China directly exports about 22 million units to the US, accounting for 10.5% of total exports. In 2024, imports from China accounted for nearly 50% of North America's supply - demand gap [12][14]. 2. Negative Impact of Tariffs - The US tariff policy has shifted from targeting China's production capacity to promoting the use of domestic materials. On June 12, the US imposed new duties on steel - derived appliances from June 23. Steel accounts for 15% of refrigerator costs and 35% of washer costs [19][20]. - Tariff - induced demand pull - forward and price hikes may suppress China's export demand. There is an inverse relationship between US appliance sales YoY growth and major appliance CPI. A 10% price increase in 2025 is expected to lead to only about 1% volume growth in North America [25][26]. 3. Copper & EB Demand May Face Pressures 3.1 China Appliance Market - The efficacy of China's white goods subsidy may weaken in H2. As of April 27, the national replacement sales reached 49.4 million units. After the initial RMB160 billion allocation, RMB140 billion will be gradually disbursed from July. Regional subsidy restrictions will be implemented, and the real - estate market is expected to support a 5% YoY growth in domestic sales in 2025 [30][31]. - China's appliance exports face H1 demand pull - forward and H2 order pressure. The restocking cycle is expected to end by August, and Q3 production will be pressured. China's full - year appliance export growth is estimated at 2% [32][33]. 3.2 Related Commodities Risks - In 2025, the global sales of three major white goods are estimated at 614 million units, a 3.62% YoY increase. China's total sales are projected at 444 million units, and the total output is 694 million units, a 4.45% YoY increase. - The consumption of steel, copper, aluminum, and EB in home appliance production is forecast at 262.6 million tons, 28.4 million tons, 22.9 million tons, and 7.6 million tons respectively. Since home - appliance use of EB accounts for 40% of total EB demand and EB supply is already in surplus, its demand pressure will be prominent in H2. Copper's supply - demand is in a tight balance, and a decline in appliance demand may increase the risk of surplus [35][36].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, the total iron ore inventory increased slightly. The inventory increase was mainly in the pressing and factory links, while the port inventory decreased slightly. The profitability of steel enterprises slightly deteriorated, but affected by the production - restriction policy in the North China and Shandong regions, the iron - water production decreased. Most steel enterprises still have profits, and there is no expectation of significant production cuts in the short term. It is expected that the iron - water production can maintain the current high - level [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory and Shipping - On July 11, 2025, the 45 - port import iron ore inventory was 13,765.89 tons, a decrease of 112.51 tons compared with the previous period and 1,223 tons compared with the same period last year. The number of ships at the port was 99, a decrease of 8 compared with the previous period and 9 compared with the same period last year. The inventory of Australian ore was 6,043.82 tons, a decrease of 96.1 tons compared with the previous period and 968.12 tons compared with the same period last year. The inventory of Brazilian ore was 4,894.23 tons, an increase of 1.71 tons compared with the previous period and 89.02 tons compared with the same period last year [3] Production and Operation Indicators of Steel Enterprises - On July 11, 2025, the daily average iron - water production was 239.81 tons, a decrease of 1.04 tons compared with the previous period and an increase of 1.52 tons compared with the same period last year. The blast - furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31% compared with the previous period and an increase of 0.65% compared with the same period last year. The steel - mill profitability rate was 59.74%, a decrease of 0.43% compared with the previous period and an increase of 22.94% compared with the same period last year. The port clearance volume was 319.51 tons, a decrease of 0.22 tons compared with the previous period and an increase of 9.63 tons compared with the same period last year [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Most of the industries in the report are rated as "oscillating", with the exception of the log industry which is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the sugar industry which is expected to "oscillate weakly" in the long - term and "oscillate" in the short - term [7][8][9][10][12][14][16][17][18]. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related industries, finding that most industries are currently in an oscillating state. Some industries face supply - demand imbalances, such as the oversupply in the hog industry; others are affected by factors like weather, policies, and trade relations, such as the possible weather - related speculation in natural rubber and the impact of trade agreements on protein meal [1][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Oscillating and differentiating, with soybean and rapeseed oils oscillating strongly yesterday. - **Logic**: Good growth of US soybeans, a decrease in US soybean oil inventory, an increase in the expected demand for soybean oil in biodiesel, and the Brazilian biodiesel blending ratio increase. However, there is also pressure from the increase in palm oil production and the high inventory of domestic rapeseed oil [7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Due to the signing of the Sino - Australian trade memorandum of understanding, the double - meal oscillated and slightly declined. - **Logic**: Abroad, the growth of US soybeans is smooth, but the export prospects are worrying; Brazil's exports are still high. Domestically, the signing of the Sino - Australian memorandum implies new Australian seed imports, with supply pressure leading to weak spot prices, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be strong in the long - term [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Spot transactions are light, and futures and spot prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. On the spot side, supply at ports and deep - processing plants decreased, and there were price adjustments at some deep - processing plants. Deep - processing production and consumption data changed slightly, and there is a risk of supply shortage before the new grain is listed in large quantities [9][10]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Upstream slaughtering puts pressure on hog prices. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large hogs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded, and farmers are still reluctant to sell standard hogs. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets has been increasing, and there is room for an increase in hog slaughter in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the current production capacity is still high. The demand for pork has increased week - on - week, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market has positive sentiment, but in the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure in the third quarter [1][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: There may be weather - related speculation, but the expected increase is limited. - **Logic**: The rubber price rose rapidly at the end of trading yesterday, possibly due to weather - related speculation about a typhoon landing in Hainan Island or external capital. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are currently stable. The supply is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable [12][13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price rebounded after a decline. - **Logic**: The futures price followed the commodity adjustment and then rebounded due to the impact of natural rubber. The upward driving force is not obvious, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement in butadiene trading. It is expected to oscillate within a range [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices increased with increased positions, breaking through the 14,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, the cotton market is loose, and the new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase in production. The demand is in the off - season, but the current commercial inventory is low. Yesterday, the futures price increased with increased positions, but there are multiple factors restricting further increases, and there is a risk of decline when new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuated within a narrow range. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected supply surplus in the 25/26 sugar - making season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazilian sugar production and high domestic sales rates support sugar prices, but the increase in Brazilian production and exports and domestic imports will increase supply pressure [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The trend is dominated by the macro - environment, with a stalemate - type fluctuation. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the supply - demand relationship is in a stalemate. The upward driving force comes from the macro - environment, but there is pressure at 5200 - 5300 yuan. In the short - term, there is a slight rebound space, and in the medium - term, there may be a phased increase, but the height is limited [17]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: There are few fundamental contradictions, and the short - term futures price oscillates. - **Logic**: Spot prices are weak due to the impact of delivery products, and the cost of importers has increased. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand is stable, and the market is in the bottom - building stage. There is no clear driving force for upward or downward movement in the short - term [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic being strengthened. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and volatility jumps should be guarded against. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the United States for most economies have been announced. Except for Japan and Malaysia, most rates have been lowered, and short - term tariff uncertainty has declined. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3%, and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3%. In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0%. The number of new non - farm jobs in the US in June was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US on July 4 will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [6]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume increased slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's sixth meeting on July 1 proposed to regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. Commodities oriented to domestic demand and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year were greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there will be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. Financial - The sentiment in the stock market has risen, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a moderately upward trend, stock index options remain cautious, and the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures has weakened [7]. Precious Metals - Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver continue to adjust [7]. Shipping - The sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. For the container shipping route to Europe, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases [7]. Black Building Materials - The macro sentiment has temporarily cooled down, and black commodities have declined slightly. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash all show a volatile trend [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Non - ferrous metals stop falling and rebound. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and other metals show different volatile trends [7]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and crude oil will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and other products show different trends such as volatile decline, decline, and volatility [9]. Agriculture - Agricultural varieties mostly show a volatile trend. Rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, cotton, sugar, and other products all show a volatile trend [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The "anti - involution" theme in the stock index futures market has cooled on the surface, but policy support continues to increase. The anti - involution theme is expected to continue until the Politburo meeting in July. It is recommended to configure long IM positions before the meeting [3][8]. - In the stock index options market, the equity market continues to fluctuate. It is recommended to adopt a covered defense strategy [4][8]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the bond yield curve is expected to steepen. Trend strategies should maintain a volatile outlook, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focus on basis widening, and the odds of steepening the curve in the medium - term are higher [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM for the current month is - 9.2, - 7.3, - 10.59, and - 17.66 points respectively, with changes of 0.26, - 0.27, - 0.04, and 3.17 points compared to the previous trading day. The inter - period spreads (current month - next month) are 13.4, 2.4, 57, and 71.6 points respectively, with changes of - 3, - 2.8, - 2.2, and 2.4 points. The positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed by - 11467, - 6209, - 7629, and - 18770 lots respectively [8]. - The "anti - involution" theme on the market has cooled, and the market has switched to the TMT sector. However, the State Council Executive Meeting has strengthened the determination of "anti - involution" policies. It is recommended to configure long IM positions [3][8]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety has decreased by 11.55%, and the weighted implied volatility has decreased by an average of 0.70%. The implied volatility of the near - month contracts has large intraday fluctuations, while that of the far - month contracts has declined. The average decline of the position PCR is 2.12%. It is recommended to adopt a covered defense strategy [4][8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume and position of T, TF, TS, and TL for the current quarter have changed. The inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis have also changed. The central bank conducted a large - scale net injection in the open market [9]. - Most treasury bond futures closed down, with short - term interest rates mostly falling and long - term interest rates mostly rising, leading to a steeper yield curve. It is recommended to maintain a volatile trend strategy, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focus on basis widening, and the odds of steepening the curve in the medium - term are higher [9][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar | Time | Region | Indicator | Previous Value | Forecast Value | Announced Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/14 11:00 | China | June export amount: year - on - year (%) | 4.8 | 3.21 | 5.8 | | 2025/07/14 15:00 | China | June new RMB loans (100 million yuan) | 6200 | 18447.29 | 22400 | | 2025/07/15 10:00 | China | June industrial added value: year - on - year (%) | 5.8 | 5.49 | 6.8 | | 2025/07/15 20:30 | US | June CPI: seasonally adjusted: year - on - year (%) | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | [11] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The State Council Executive Meeting emphasized regulating the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry, including cost investigation, price monitoring, and ensuring payment terms [11]. - Huang Renxun of NVIDIA attended the Chain Expo, stating that China's open - source AI is a catalyst for global progress, and the next wave of AI will be robot systems [12]. - US President Trump announced a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU starting August 1st, which may lead to an escalation of trade conflicts between the US and Europe [12]. - The "2025 China Online Retail TOP100" data shows that the online sales of selected enterprises reached 2.17 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 13.6%. The instant retail market is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 25% in the next five years [12].