Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On November 13th, equity index futures rose while CGB futures declined; most commodity futures advanced, with energy and chemical futures relatively weak [2][9][11]. - The top three gainers in commodity futures were silver, polysilicon and apples, while the top three decliners were low - sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil and crude oil [10][11][12]. - Silver prices may rise further if gold prices maintain a volatile and strong trend and the US dollar continues to pull back; 20 -号胶 prices are likely to maintain a bottom - volatile trend with strong elasticity but may face downward adjustment pressure; crude oil prices are likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [17][26][35]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On November 13th, China's financial futures: IC and IM both gained 1.7%; TL fell 0.3%. In commodity futures, most advanced, with energy and chemical futures relatively weak [9]. - The top three gainers in commodity futures were silver (up 5.5% with open interest decreasing 1.6% month - on - month), polysilicon (up 3.7% with open interest increasing 2.4% month - on - month) and apples (up 3.3% with open interest up 13.0% month - on - month). The top three decliners were low - sulfur fuel oil (down 4.4% with open interest falling 10.6% month - on - month), fuel oil (down 3.7% with open interest increasing 20.9% month - on - month) and crude oil (down 3.7% with open interest decreasing 19.3% month - on - month) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Silver**: On November 13th, silver rose 5.5% to 12,588 yuan/kg. London market supply tightness alleviated in October, with silver inventories in London vaults surging by about 54 million ounces. Spot prices are supported by capital momentum and have broken through the previous psychological threshold. Weak corporate confidence and slowing employment may lead to further strengthening of interest - rate cut expectations, supporting silver prices [15][16][17]. - **TSR20**: On November 13th, TSR20 rose 1.8% to 12,400 yuan/ton. China entered the rubber - tapping suspension period in November, and RU - related themes still have speculation space. The supply - demand pattern of natural rubber has not changed significantly, but from a seasonal perspective, rubber prices may face downward adjustment pressure [24][25][26]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Crude Oil**: On November 13th, crude oil fell 3.7% to 449.5 yuan/barrel. API data showed US crude oil inventories continued to build up and refined oil inventories declined last week. OPEC revised down its global supply - demand balance forecast, while EIA indicated US crude oil production remains resilient. Oil prices are likely to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [32][33][35]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Premier Li Qiang will attend the 24th Meeting of the Council of Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) of the SCO Member States in Moscow from November 17 - 18, pay an official visit to Zambia from November 19 - 20, and attend the 20th G20 Summit in Johannesburg from November 21 - 23 [40]. 2.2 Industry News - The market value of A - shares held by foreign investors currently exceeds RMB 3.5 trillion, and efforts will be made to include more futures and options products in the scope of opening - up [41]. - From January to October, the cumulative trading volume and turnover of China's national futures market increased by 14.86% and 21.82% year - on - year, respectively [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to be fluctuating upward, with soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showing a bias towards strengthening [4]. - **Protein Meals**: Forecasted to have a fluctuating upward trend, including soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: Anticipated to be fluctuating strongly in the short - term [6]. - **Hogs**: Predicted to be fluctuating weakly, with a "weak present + strong future" pattern [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to maintain a bottom - fluctuating and high - elasticity trend [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Suggested to take a short - selling approach when prices are high [13]. - **Cotton**: Forecasted to have a short - term range - bound fluctuation and a long - term upward trend [13]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be fluctuating weakly in the medium - to - long - term and range - bound between 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in the short - term [15]. - **Pulp**: Anticipated to be fluctuating, with a divergence between futures and spot markets [16]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Forecasted to have a range - bound fluctuation, with a possible first - rising - then - falling trend [17]. - **Logs**: Expected to be fluctuating weakly at a low level [20]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including factors such as supply and demand, macro - environment, and industry policies. It provides short - term and medium - to - long - term outlooks for each product, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in the agricultural market. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook for Each Product - **Oils and Fats**: The market is affected by factors such as the USDA report, South American weather, and domestic soybean imports. Overall, it is expected to be fluctuating upward, with different trends for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [4]. - **Protein Meals**: Market expectations are that the supply - demand report will be bullish. With the US soybean harvest nearing completion and South American soybean sowing progressing smoothly, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have a fluctuating upward trend [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The short - term supply shortage has not been alleviated, and prices are expected to be fluctuating strongly. However, there may be pressure on prices in the fourth quarter due to new grain listings [6][7]. - **Hogs**: The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Short - term supply is large, but long - term supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Driven by a strong macro - environment, rubber prices are rising. However, there may be downward pressure on prices without strong expectations or macro - driving forces [9][11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market is rebounding, but due to weak fundamentals and raw material pressure, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach when prices are high [13]. - **Cotton**: After the digestion of previous bullish factors, short - term upward momentum is weak. With increased supply expectations, prices may have a short - term correction, but the cost of new cotton provides support [13]. - **Sugar**: In the international and domestic markets, there is downward pressure on sugar prices in the medium - to - long - term due to expected supply surpluses. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [15]. - **Pulp**: The futures market is driven by capital, while the spot market is affected by factors such as weak demand and supply pressure. Overall, it is expected to be fluctuating [16]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The market may show a first - rising - then - falling trend, with price rebounds in November and potential declines in December and the first quarter of 2026 [17]. - **Logs**: The market is affected by factors such as supply pressure, demand weakness, and inventory trends. Prices are expected to be fluctuating weakly at a low level [20]. 3.2 Key Information and Data - **Sugar**: On November 13, the Zhengzhou Sugar 01 contract closed at 5512 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [1][13][15]. - **Protein Meals**: On November 12, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were: US Gulf soybeans at 238 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel or 2.06% from the previous day; US West soybeans at 225 cents/bushel, down 20 cents/bushel or 8.16%; South American soybeans at 220 cents/bushel, up 3 cents/bushel or 1.38%. On November 13, the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was - 70.4 yuan/ton, up 26.32 yuan/ton or - 27.21% from the previous day [4][5]. - **Corn**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the main contract was 2177 yuan/ton, up 0.93% [6]. - **Hogs**: On November 13, the price of live hogs (external ternary) in Henan was 11.86 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the live hog futures (active contract) was 11860 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [7]. - **Natural Rubber**: On November 13, the RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14780 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the domestic full - latex old rubber was 14850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of STR20 in the free trade zone was 1860, up 10 [9]. - **Cotton**: On November 13, the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract closed at 13490 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The number of 24/25 annual warehouse receipts was 2220, down 15; the number of 25/26 annual warehouse receipts was 1960, up 311 [13]. - **Pulp**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5125 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Pacific pulp was 5465 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of Silver Star pulp was 5565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The price of Shandong Goldfish pulp was 4390 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [15]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Macro - environment**: The end of the US government shutdown, the release of US economic data, the Fed's monetary policy, and OPEC's adjustment of global oil demand forecasts all have an impact on the agricultural product market [4][9]. - **Supply and demand**: Supply factors include factors such as planting area, yield, and import volume; demand factors include factors such as consumption and inventory. For example, the expected increase in sugar production in India, Thailand, and Brazil, and the new grain listing of corn all affect market supply; the consumption of soybean meal and the inventory of hogs affect market demand [1][4][5][6][7][13][15]. - **Industry policies**: Policies such as import policies for sugar syrup and pre - mixed powder, and the government's attention to hog production reduction all have an impact on the market [7][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further bullish drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term oscillation period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors maintain a balanced allocation in major assets in the fourth quarter, continue to hold long positions, and focus on the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. If there is a certain correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is more on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although the US dollar liquidity seems to be in a short - term tight situation, it will not have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for the improvement of US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work, which can relieve the short - term pressure on US dollar liquidity to a certain extent [7] - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more optimistic information was seen in the October inflation data. In addition, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [7] - **Asset Views**: In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further bullish drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term oscillation period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors maintain a balanced allocation in major assets in the fourth quarter, continue to hold long positions, and focus on the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. If there is a certain correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [7] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology - related events, the growth style is active. Concerns include the overcrowding of small - cap funds. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [9] - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. Concerns include the lower - than - expected liquidity in the options market. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Concerns include policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Concerns include the performance of the US fundamentals, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: In the third quarter, the peak season has passed, and there is pressure on loading with no upward drivers. Concerns include the rate of freight decline in September. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Steel**: There is limited market driving force, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Iron Ore**: Pig iron production is stable in the short term, and the market is oscillating. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Coke**: Market sentiment is average, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Coking Coal**: Supply has slightly recovered, and there is an obvious divergence between futures and spot. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Silicon Iron**: There is still cost support, and attention is paid to the final pricing of steel tenders. Concerns include raw material costs and steel tender situations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand situation is loose, suppressing the market, and the futures price is mainly oscillating at a low level. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Glass**: The inventory contradiction is intensifying, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Concerns include spot sales. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is still in surplus, and the cost - driven upward movement is limited. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Alumina**: The fundamental situation is still in surplus, and the alumina price is under pressure and oscillating. Concerns include the failure of ore production to recover as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Aluminum**: There is a linkage between stocks and futures, and the aluminum price is oscillating upward. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and lower - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [9] - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. Concerns include macro - turning risks and the over - expected recovery of zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Lead**: Social inventory has slightly increased, and the lead price is oscillating. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Nickel**: Market sentiment has improved, and the nickel price is oscillating. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and the failure of supply to be released as expected. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the stainless - steel market is oscillating. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and over - expected demand growth. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Tin**: Shanghai tin inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is oscillating. Concerns include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest region has rapidly declined, and the silicon price is oscillating. Concerns include over - expected supply cuts and over - expected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectations are fluctuating, and caution is needed for significant price fluctuations. Concerns include lower - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [9] 3.2.5 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **LPG**: Refinery out - put has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure. Concerns include the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the asphalt futures price is oscillating. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is oscillating, and attention is paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. Concerns include crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [11] - **Methanol**: The high - inventory situation is suppressing the market, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol is oscillating and consolidating. Concerns include macro - energy and overseas dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Urea**: There is still an increase in production capacity, and the futures price is under short - term pressure. Concerns include the implementation of export quotas and the coal price market. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is still production profit. There is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. Concerns include coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [11] - **PX**: Market sentiment is becoming more rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported under the situation of strong supply and demand. Concerns include significant crude oil price fluctuations and macro abnormalities. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **PTA**: Market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. Concerns include significant crude oil price fluctuations and macro abnormalities. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Short - Fiber**: The market follows the "buy on dips" pattern, and attention is paid to the conversion between peak and off - peak seasons. Concerns include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it passively follows the cost. Concerns include the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production reduction targets and new device commissioning situations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Propylene**: Inventory still needs time to be digested, and the market is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices and the domestic macro environment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **PP**: The support from maintenance is still limited, and PP is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Plastic**: Maintenance has decreased, and plastic is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and styrene is oscillating weakly. Concerns include oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **PVC**: The weak reality is suppressing the market, and PVC is oscillating weakly. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is in a situation of low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda is oscillating. Concerns include market sentiment, start - up, and demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil continues to lead the oils and fats market, and attention is paid to the USDA report. Concerns include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [11] - **Protein Meal**: The market expects the supply - demand report to be bullish, and soybean meal follows the rise of US soybeans. Concerns include weather, domestic demand, the macro environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade wars. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Corn/Starch**: The short - term supply tension has not been relieved, and the market is oscillating at a high level. Concerns include demand, the macro environment, and weather. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Pigs**: The situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength in the pig market continues. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [11] 3.2.6 Agricultural Sector - **Natural Rubber**: Driven by a strong macro environment, the rubber price continues to rise. Concerns include production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market continues to rebound. Concerns include significant crude oil price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Cotton**: The cotton price has slightly declined, and the upside and downside space of the 01 contract is expected to be limited. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded and returned above 5500 yuan/ton. Concerns include imports and Brazilian production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [11] - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by capital, and the long - position advantage remains unchanged. Concerns include macro - economic changes and US dollar - based quote fluctuations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Offset Paper**: The fundamental situation has limited changes, and offset paper is oscillating within a range. Concerns include production and sales, education policies, and paper mill start - up dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11] - **Logs**: The port - arrival pressure first increases and then decreases, and logs are oscillating at a low level. Concerns include special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [11]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, the current supply - demand situation of new energy metals is favorable. Lithium carbonate leads the rise in new energy metals due to accelerated inventory reduction, and short - long opportunities in lithium carbonate are worth attention. In the long run, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to shrink, and the price center may rise. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated [2]. - The price of industrial silicon is supported by the reduction in production during the dry season and the clearance of warehouse receipts. The price of polysilicon stops falling and stabilizes after the PV Association refutes the rumors. The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate remains strong, and the price fluctuates at a high level [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is supported by the reduction in production during the dry season and the clearance of warehouse receipts [7]. - **Information Analysis**: - The spot prices of oxygen - passing 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China are stable at 9,500 yuan/ton and 9,750 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - The latest domestic inventory of industrial silicon is 461,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1%. Among them, the market inventory is 185,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, and the factory inventory is 277,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% [7]. - As of October 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon is 452,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to October, the cumulative production is 3.469 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7% [7]. - In September, the export volume of industrial silicon is 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume is 561,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [7]. - The newly installed PV capacity in September is 9.66GW, a year - on - year decrease of 53.76%. From January to September, the cumulative newly installed PV capacity reaches 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35% [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the dry season in the southwest leads to a rapid decline in the number of open furnaces, and most silicon plants will enter the shutdown and maintenance stage. The supply in the northwest fluctuates slightly without obvious increase. On the demand side, the demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline slightly in November. The organic silicon DMC market operates weakly and stably, and the terminal demand is still weak. The demand for aluminum alloy increases slightly. The clearance of warehouse receipts of industrial silicon supports the price [7]. - **Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate due to the reduction in production in the southwest during the dry season and the continuous clearance of warehouse receipts, as well as the continuous fluctuation of coal prices in the short term [7]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: After the PV Association refutes the false rumors, the price of polysilicon stops falling and stabilizes [8]. - **Information Analysis**: - The成交 price range of N - type re - feeding polysilicon is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and the average成交 price is 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week [8]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9,850 lots, unchanged from the previous value [8]. - In September, the export volume of polysilicon is about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume is 18,667 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30%. In September, the import volume of polysilicon is about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume is 14,677 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.26% [8]. - From January to September 2025, the newly installed domestic PV capacity is 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative newly installed PV capacity is 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [8]. - In November, the production schedule of domestic component enterprises varies. The production schedule of leading enterprises increases slightly, while most other enterprises reduce production to clear inventory. The overall production schedule in November is expected to be less than 44.5GW [8]. - **Main Logic**: The PV Association refutes the rumors and promotes industry self - discipline. The supply of polysilicon will shrink in November due to the dry season, and the production is expected to drop below 120,000 tons. The demand for polysilicon may weaken from November, and the downstream demand is starting to decline. Overall, the supply - demand of polysilicon is still under pressure, but the production will decrease during the dry season, and there are still policy expectations. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [9][10]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts the price of polysilicon, but the current inventory pressure is still large, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate remains strong, and the price fluctuates at a high level [11]. - **Information Analysis**: - On November 12, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 0.05% to 86,580 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 11,610 lots to 1,004,426 lots [11]. - On November 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 83,300 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 81,100 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) increased by 9 US dollars/ton to 984 US dollars/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 188 lots to 28,287 lots [11]. - Australian lithium miner Liontown announced a cooperation with Metalshub to sell the spot of Kathleen Valley spodumene concentrate to global customers through its digital platform. The first auction will be held on November 19, 2025, with the target of 10,000 tons of spodumene concentrate, and a series of auction activities are planned to be launched in 2026 and later [11]. - **Main Logic**: The current market supply and demand are both strong, and inventory reduction is expected to continue from November to December. However, the supply expectation is uncertain, which may cause large price fluctuations. On the supply side, the monthly production of lithium carbonate continues to increase significantly, but there is a shortage of ore, which restricts the supply of lithium salt. On the demand side, the apparent demand is good, and the production schedule from November to December is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the continuation of demand and the performance in the off - season of the first quarter of next year. The optimistic expectation of energy storage consumption will generate speculative demand when the price falls, raising the price center. The social inventory continues to be reduced, and the warehouse receipts have stabilized recently, but further decline should be vigilant. In the short - to - medium term, the resumption of production of Xianxiawo is the key factor affecting the balance sheet. In the long run, with the optimistic demand, a bullish approach is recommended, and long positions can be appropriately bought after a pull - back [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: No specific monitoring content provided. - **Polysilicon**: No specific monitoring content provided. - **Lithium Carbonate**: No specific monitoring content provided. 3. Commodity Index - On November 12, 2025, the comprehensive index, the specialty index (including the commodity 20 index, the industrial product index, and the PPI commodity index) of CITIC Futures all increased. The new energy commodity index increased by 0.89% on the day, 3.80% in the past 5 days, 9.13% in the past month, and 4.22% since the beginning of the year [53][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View The Q3 2025 China Monetary Policy Report continues the main tone of "appropriately accommodative monetary policy" and emphasizes structural monetary policy and promoting a reasonable price recovery. Compared with the Q2 report, it focuses more on reducing banks' liability costs and promotes the transformation of the monetary policy framework. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards liquidity, and the bond market is expected to remain strong with fluctuations [1][4][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy and maintain relatively loose social financing conditions - The overall tone of the monetary policy remains "appropriately accommodative," with the Q3 2025 report further emphasizing maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions. The central bank will maintain ample liquidity through various monetary policy operations and promote a decline in overall financing costs, which may imply that bond yields may remain at low levels in the short term [1][5]. 2. Implement various structural monetary policy tools and emphasize financial support for technology, consumption, etc. - The Q3 2025 report mentioned leveraging the dual functions of total volume and structure of monetary policy tools, implementing various structural monetary policy tools, and increasing support for key areas such as technological innovation, boosting consumption, micro and small enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [1][6]. 3. Prioritize promoting a reasonable price recovery as an important consideration for monetary policy implementation - The Q3 2025 report still emphasized promoting a reasonable recovery in prices. Although inflation data has stabilized, the absolute level remains low, and monetary policy needs to focus on promoting price recovery and expanding domestic demand [1][6]. 4. Reduce banks' liability costs to widen the space for counter - cyclical monetary policy adjustments - The Q3 2025 report frequently mentioned reducing banks' liability costs. The central bank will improve the interest rate control framework, strengthen policy interest rate guidance, and take measures to reduce banks' liability costs and drive down social financing costs. Some small and medium - sized banks have started to reduce deposit rates, and after net interest margins stabilize, the space for monetary policy will expand [2][7]. 5. Continue to promote the transformation of the monetary policy framework - The monetary policy framework places more emphasis on the role of price - type regulation. Through deepening interest rate marketization reforms, it aims to smooth the interest rate transmission relationship from short to long and the comparison relationship between different asset yields [3][7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The vegetable oil market shows a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil relatively strong. Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. Corn prices are in short - term high - level oscillations. Pig prices are weak due to loose supply and demand. Natural rubber may have a pulse upward movement, and synthetic rubber will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. Cotton prices decline slightly, sugar prices fluctuate narrowly, pulp is dominated by capital with the long - side advantage unchanged, double - offset paper will stabilize in November, and logs are in a destocking cycle and oscillate [1][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **View**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the upper technical resistance. - **Logic**: The US soybean market is waiting for the clarity of export demand. The US federal government may resume operation this week, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates again this year. The USDA will release a report on Friday. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and there is a possibility of a decrease in yield per unit. Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting progress lags behind last year. Domestic soybean imports are expected to be at a high level, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. Malaysian palm oil production and exports have declined in November, and Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low. Domestic rapeseed supply is tight, and rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, but future supply is expected to increase [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil will oscillate, palm oil will oscillate, and rapeseed oil will oscillate strongly. The positive driving factors in the vegetable oil market include tight domestic rapeseed supply, declining rapeseed oil inventory, the palm oil production - reduction season, and rising domestic soybean import costs [2][7]. 2. Protein Meal - **View**: US soybeans are testing the upper pressure level, and the reverse spread of Dalian soybean meal should be held. - **Logic**: The USDA will release a supply - and - demand report on November 15. The market expects a possible decrease in US soybean yield per unit. China's purchase of US soybeans has been digested, and the premium of US soybeans has loosened. Brazilian soybean exports are seasonally decreasing, but exports to China in November are expected to increase year - on - year. Brazilian and Argentine soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. Domestically, the de - stocking of soybean meal in oil mills is slow in the short term, and downstream inventory has decreased. In the medium term, the purchase of December shipments is advancing, but the January import is still at a loss. In the long term, the supply in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, and there may be a soybean shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal will oscillate. It is recommended to buy on dips, not chase after highs, and sell near - term contracts and buy far - term contracts [9]. 3. Corn and Starch - **View**: The market is in a stage of tight supply, and prices will oscillate at a high level in the short term. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are rising, with low arrival volume. The cold weather has increased farmers' reluctance to sell. The demand for feed grains in the sales area is concentrated in the Northeast, and the railway freight adjustment has increased the trading cost. The central reserve grain rotation is ongoing. In the fourth quarter, there is pressure on spot prices due to the new - grain listing [11]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate strongly. There may be an opportunity to short when the price rebounds to around 2200 [11]. 4. Hogs - **View**: Supply and demand are loose, and pig prices are weak. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of commercial pigs in November is still large. In the medium term, the number of live - weight pigs for slaughter is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is being reduced, and the supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026. The ratio of meat to pig price has increased, the average slaughter weight has increased, and the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has increased [12]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate weakly. The near - term contracts are under pressure, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the reverse - spread strategy [12]. 5. Natural Rubber - **View**: With the approaching expiration of the 11 - contract, attention should be paid to the possible pulse upward movement. - **Logic**: The rubber futures market rose slightly yesterday, which may be related to the upcoming expiration of the RU11 contract. The supply in overseas production areas is affected by the weather, and the demand has not changed significantly recently. Seasonally, without strong expectations and macro - driving factors, rubber prices may face downward pressure [12][14]. - **Outlook**: Rubber prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating and high - elasticity trend. Attention should be paid to widening the spread between RU and NR [14]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The raw - material trading is stable, and the futures market rebounds strongly. - **Logic**: The BR futures market rebounded strongly yesterday due to the good trading of butadiene in recent days. The price of butadiene stopped falling and consolidated this week. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. The market has a short - term bottom support [15][16]. - **Outlook**: Given the large pressure on the fundamentals and raw - material side, it is recommended to short on rallies before the obvious supply - and - demand contradiction of butadiene appears [16]. 7. Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices decline slightly. - **Logic**: The positive factors in the cotton market have been digested, and the expected increase in supply and the peak - season listing of new cotton have brought downward pressure on prices. The cost of new cotton provides support [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 - contract will oscillate within a range. In the long term, the cotton market may destock, driving prices upward [16]. 8. Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuate narrowly. - **Logic**: Internationally, the focus of sugar supply has shifted from Brazil to the Northern Hemisphere. New - season sugar production in India, Thailand, and Brazil is expected to increase. Domestically, the new - season sugar production is expected to increase, and the tightening of import policies supports the domestic market, but the increase in supply during the peak - production period will bring downward pressure [17]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - and long - term, prices will oscillate weakly. In the short term, prices will fluctuate between 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17]. 9. Pulp - **View**: The futures market is dominated by capital, and the long - side advantage remains unchanged. - **Logic**: The futures market is oscillating at a high level, and the long - side funds are dominant. The positive factors include the rise in packaging paper prices, the increase in import costs, the good production - and - sales expectations of white cardboard and cultural paper, and the possible shortage of delivery warehouse receipts. The negative factors include low demand for softwood pulp, slow procurement by downstream enterprises, the disturbance of warehouse - receipt issues, and weak downstream consumption [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate. The spot market is dominated by warehouse - receipt and weak - supply - and - demand factors, while the futures market is driven by capital. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. 10. Double - Offset Paper - **View**: November is the tender peak season, and prices will stabilize in an oscillating manner. - **Logic**: In November, supported by the tender season and cost pressure, paper mills are strongly willing to support prices, and the market may stop falling and rebound. In December, the "volume - boosting price - cutting" by dealers may drag down the market. In the first quarter of 2026, the market will enter a stage of narrow - amplitude oscillation [19]. - **Outlook**: The tender for double - offset paper is starting, and prices will stop falling and stabilize [19]. 11. Logs - **View**: Logs are in a destocking cycle and will oscillate. - **Logic**: In the short term, the increase in shipments from New Zealand will lead to an increase in arrivals in December, and the import pressure will ease seasonally in the first quarter of 2026. In the long term, there is still supply pressure. The demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026, with a small increase in inventory replenishment in the fourth quarter and a seasonal decline in the first quarter. The real - estate industry cannot strongly drive the demand for logs, and prices will oscillate weakly around the cost line [21]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of logs are weakening, and spot prices are under pressure, with a recent bottom - oscillating trend [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to consolidate in a volatile manner. The OPEC monthly report confirmed an oversupply of 500,000 barrels per day in the global crude oil market in Q3 2025, which is different from the previous shortage forecast. The strengthening of refined oil products is reflected in both crack spreads and calendar spreads, while the calendar spreads of crude oil are gradually weakening. The rise in crude oil prices has not driven the chemical sector, and various chemical products are showing different trends [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The API data shows that the US crude oil inventory continued to build up last week, and the EIA short - term energy outlook report raised the forecast of US crude oil production. The OPEC monthly report adjusted its estimate of the global oil market from a deficit to a surplus. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price of asphalt is oscillating. The supply tension has been relieved, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the calendar spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price of fuel oil is oscillating. Pay attention to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the strength of refined oil products, low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. It is affected by the decline in Russian refined oil exports, but also faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution [13]. - **PX**: Market sentiment tends to be rational. Under the situation of strong supply and demand, the processing fee is strongly supported. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate slightly upwards [14]. - **PTA**: Market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term increase slows down, and it turns to range - bound consolidation [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The port resumes inventory accumulation, and pure benzene runs weakly. The current upward driving force is insufficient, but the valuation is at a low level [16]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about inventory overflow, and styrene oscillates weakly. The pressure in November is mainly on the cost side of pure benzene [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot circulation is loose, and there are still production profits. The hope of reversing the downward trend in the short - term market is slim. The price will maintain a low - level range - bound operation [19]. - **Short - Fiber**: The market follows the "buy - on - dips" principle, and pay attention to the conversion between peak and off - peak seasons. The short - fiber price follows the upstream to oscillate, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market performance is flat, and it passively follows the cost. The processing fee is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short - term [24]. - **Methanol**: The high - inventory reality suppresses, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol oscillates and consolidates. Wait for overseas disturbance information in the short - term [26]. - **Urea**: There is still an incremental production capacity, and the futures price is under pressure in the short - term. It is in a state of high - inventory suppression and coal - cost support, and pay attention to the implementation of export quotas and coal - price trends [26]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate declines, and plastic oscillates weakly. The fundamental support is limited, and the production pressure is large due to the increase in production capacity [28]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is still limited, and PP oscillates weakly. The inventory in the middle reaches is at a high level in the same period in recent years, and pay attention to the change and sustainability of maintenance [29]. - **PL**: The inventory needs time to be digested, and PL oscillates weakly. The downstream replenishment enthusiasm weakens, and the trading range changes little [30]. - **PVC**: Weak reality suppresses, and PVC oscillates weakly. The macro - level disturbance fades, and the fundamentals are under pressure [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and caustic soda oscillates. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.27 with a change of - 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is - 28 with a change of - 8 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Various varieties show different basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 43 with a change of 7, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7690 [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Different inter - variety spreads also have different values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 136 with a change of - 47 [37]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report only lists the names of various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., but does not provide specific monitoring data. 3.3 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 12, 2025, shows that the commodity index is 2258.82 (+0.40%), the commodity 20 index is 2563.42 (+0.48%), the industrial products index is 2223.46 (+0.58%), and the PPI commodity index is 1344.72 (+0.44%) [280]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on November 12, 2025, has a current value of 1169.87, with a daily increase of 1.34%, a 5 - day increase of 0.97%, a 1 - month increase of 4.26%, and a year - to - date decrease of 4.73% [281].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 12, 2025, equity index futures declined while CGB futures rose; commodity futures showed mixed performance, with energy and chemical futures relatively weak [2][9][11]. - The PBOC will strengthen the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, innovate financial tools, promote RMB internationalization, and raise the level of capital account liberalization. The CSRC will strengthen strategic capacity reserves and stabilization mechanism construction to enhance the intrinsic stability of the capital market [34][35][38]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 China Futures (期货异动) 3.1.1 Overview (行情概述) - Financial futures: IH gained 0.3%, IC and IM both fell 0.4%; TL rose 0.1%. - Commodity futures: The top three gainers were silver, tin and crude oil. Silver advanced 2.0% with open interest increasing 0.8% month - on - month; tin climbed 1.8% with open interest up 12.1% month - on - month; crude oil rose 1.5% while open interest decreased 4.3% month - on - month. The top three decliners were SCFIS（Europe）, eggs and Chinese jujube. SCFIS（Europe）dropped 3.4% with open interest falling 16.1% month - on - month; eggs slid 3.3% as open interest decreased 11.6% month - on - month; Chinese jujube declined 2.0% while open interest increased 1.5% month - on - month [9][10][11]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise (上涨品种) 3.1.2.1 Tin (锡) - On November 12th, tin rose 1.8% to 292,440 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions are continuous. It's expected that Wa State's average monthly output will only increase to around 1,000 metal tons by the end of the year. Tight supply provides strong support for the bottom of tin prices [15][16][17]. 3.1.2.2 Crude Oil (原油) - On November 12th, crude oil rose 1.5% to 466.2 yuan/barrel. Supply pressure persists in the real sector, while OPEC+ has become cautious about increasing production in the expected sector, leading to short - term volatility. Pay attention to the actual output reduction of Russian oil in mid - to - late November [20][21][22]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop (下跌品种) 3.1.3.1 Glass (玻璃) - On November 12th, glass fell 1.2% to 1,049 yuan/ton. There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but midstream and downstream inventories are neutral to high. If there are no more cold repairs before the end of the year, prices may fluctuate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed [28][29][31]. 3.2 China News (中国要闻) 3.2.1 Macro News (宏观要闻) - The PBOC released the Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2025. It will balance multiple relationships, strengthen the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, and sustain efforts to stabilize growth, employment, and expectations [34][35]. 3.2.2 Industry News (行业要闻) - The PBOC will proactively and steadily prevent and resolve financial risks, expand and enrich the central bank's macro - prudential and financial stability functions, innovate financial tools, and maintain the stable operation of financial markets. It will also accelerate the construction of financial market systems and high - level opening - up, promote RMB internationalization, and raise the level of capital account liberalization. The CSRC will deepen the comprehensive reform of investment and financing, and strive to improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system [35][36][38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The stock market shows a shrinking volume and narrow - range oscillation, with the dividend style being prominent. It is recommended to transfer technology funds to the price - rising chain and continue the dumbbell configuration [1][6]. - The bond market sentiment is bullish. Although there is still short - term support, the downward space for yields may be limited, and the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly [2][7]. - For stock index options, it is advisable to continue holding covered positions for defense as the market style rotates and no capital main line has been formed yet [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: Shrinking volume and narrow - range oscillation, with the dividend style being prominent. The basis, spread, and position of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed to varying degrees [6]. - **Logic**: The Shanghai Composite Index oscillated narrowly around 4,000 points on Wednesday, with a trading volume of 2 trillion yuan. The style structure was further adjusted, and the sustainability of hotspots was limited. After the release of the 25Q3 monetary policy report, long - term bond prices opened higher and rose, the bank sector soared in the morning, and the dividend index was strong. High - risk - appetite sectors retreated, and the external market's drag on the domestic market weakened [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Dividend ETF + IM long positions [6]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: Focus on covered defense [6]. - **Logic**: The equity market oscillated weakly yesterday, and the turnover of each option variety oscillated and recovered but remained at a relatively low level of liquidity since October. The option sentiment index showed a weak trend, especially for the CSI 1000 index options and technology - sector option varieties. Option trading sentiment changed with the style switch, and option volatility strengthened [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Covered positions [6]. 3.1.3 Bond Index Futures - **View**: Bond market sentiment is bullish. The trading volume, position, spread, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL have changed to varying degrees. The central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 92.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day [7]. - **Logic**: Bond index futures prices rose across the board yesterday. The domestic bond market was generally bullish, interest - rate bond yields mostly declined, and the inter - bank market liquidity improved. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report in 2025 continued the keynote of a "moderately loose monetary policy" [2][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: oscillate strongly. Hedging strategy: pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels. Basis strategy: pay attention to the positive spread strategy and basis widening. Curve strategy: appropriately pay attention to curve steepening [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report lists the economic indicators to be released in China from November 13 to 14, 2025, including new RMB loans, social financing scale, M2 money supply annual rate, total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate, and added value of industrial enterprises above designated size annual rate [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Sino - US Relations**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with representatives of the National Committee on United States - China Relations, emphasizing the broad cooperation space in the economic and trade fields between the two countries and the need to implement the consensus of the two heads of state [10]. - **New Energy**: The National Energy Administration issued a guiding opinion on promoting the integrated and coordinated development of new energy, including optimizing the power structure and energy - storage configuration ratio of "desert, Gobi, and wasteland" new - energy bases and exploring the construction of new water - wind - solar integrated bases [10]. - **Automobile**: The Ministry of Public Security completed the solicitation draft of the national standard "Technical Conditions for Motor Vehicle Operation Safety", which includes speed - limit requirements and safety requirements for new - energy vehicles [11]. - **Power Battery**: The 2025 World Power Battery Conference held a signing ceremony in Yibin, Sichuan, with 180 projects signed, totaling 86.13 billion yuan. After full operation, the expected annual output value will exceed 90 billion yuan, and over 50 leading enterprises will settle in Yibin [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes sub - sections on stock index futures data, stock index options data, and bond index futures data, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [12][16][28].