Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - Supply disruption concerns are intensifying, and new energy metals remain strong. In the short - to - medium term, polysilicon and lithium carbonate will alternately lead the rise of new energy metals. In the long - term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, with a possible increase in the price level. The lithium ore production capacity is still rising, but demand expectations are also growing, and the expected surplus in supply - demand is narrowing. The annual supply - demand inflection point for lithium carbonate may occur earlier. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **View**: Supply - demand remains weak, and silicon prices show an oscillatory trend. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory". [6] - **Information Analysis**: As of December 22, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated slightly. The latest domestic inventory decreased by 0.5% month - on - month. As of November 2025, the monthly output of domestic industrial silicon decreased by 11.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year. In November, industrial silicon exports increased by 21.8% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 30.43% month - on - month but decreased by 38.3% year - on - year. [6] - **Main Logic**: In terms of the fundamentals, the production of industrial silicon decreased in December. The demand from polysilicon, organic silicon was weak, and the demand boost from aluminum alloy was limited. Although the industry inventory decreased recently, there is still some pressure. Overall, the supply pressure was relieved to some extent, but the downstream demand weakened simultaneously, and the inventory continued to accumulate in December, with the fundamentals remaining weak. [6] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of industrial silicon are weak, but the coal price has recovered, and market sentiment fluctuates. It is believed that the price of industrial silicon will show an oscillatory trend. [7] Polysilicon - **View**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory and slightly bullish". [7] - **Information Analysis**: As of the week of December 22, the average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock was stable week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the GZFE remained unchanged. In November, China's polysilicon exports decreased by 18% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 62% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the newly installed domestic photovoltaic capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. A polysilicon platform company was registered on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan. The GZFE added new registered brands and adjusted the minimum order quantity for some polysilicon futures contracts. [7][8] - **Main Logic**: With the establishment of the polysilicon platform company, the expectation of state - reserve purchase has heated up again, and prices continue to be highly volatile. In the supply side, production in the southwest region decreased during the dry season, and the impact of anti - involution policies on supply needs to be monitored. In the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first five months was high but overdrew the demand in the second half of the year. The demand for polysilicon has gradually weakened since November. Although the fundamentals are weak, the anti - involution policy expectation provides strong price support at the bottom. [10] - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts polysilicon prices. With the establishment of the platform company, market sentiment has improved, and the price of polysilicon may show an oscillatory and slightly bullish trend in the short term. [11] Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Demand remains strong, and lithium prices continue to rise. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory and slightly bullish". [11] - **Information Analysis**: On December 22, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.68%, and the total open interest increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, as did the average price of spodumene concentrate index. The number of warehouse receipts increased. The GZFE made adjustments to lithium carbonate futures delivery warehouses, and the total warehouse capacity increased by 7,000 tons. [11][12] - **Main Logic**: Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the long - term demand expectation is also strong. Market trading focuses on the resumption time of Jiaxiawo Mine and the off - season demand. The resumption expectation has been postponed, which is a major positive factor. There are differences in the market's expectation of January demand, and the social inventory decline has slowed down. In the short term, there are few negative factors, and the market sentiment is optimistic. However, attention should be paid to the possible emotional fluctuations caused by the increase in warehouse capacity. [12] - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be mainly oscillatory and slightly bullish. [12] 2.行情监测 - Not provided with specific content in the text. 3.中信期货商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: - The commodity 20 index was 2,634.42, up 1.34%. - The industrial product index was 2,226.50, up 0.79%. - The PPI commodity index was 1,379.81, up 0.63%. [54] - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On December 22, 2025, the index was 493.12, with a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 6.64%, a 1 - month increase of 13.17%, and a year - to - date increase of 19.57%. [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The policy tone remains positive, with the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft planning major projects. In the current off - season, supply and demand are both weak. The steel rebar fundamentals are still resilient, while hot - rolled coils face inventory pressure. Supported by winter storage and cost, the futures market continues to rebound. The iron ore futures perform strongly, and the valuation of coking coal and coke continues to recover due to supply disturbances. The glass - soda ash prices are suppressed by the oversupply situation. Overall, there is a chance of a low - level rebound in the futures market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased slightly, and port inventories are accumulating. Iron water production continues to decline, weakening the rigid demand. Steel mills' restocking is slow, and there is strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][7] - Scrap steel: The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and demand remains stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is good, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still provides support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of further spot price cuts is low. As winter storage by coke and steel enterprises begins, the spot price will be more strongly supported, and the futures valuation still has room for repair, expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [2][11] - Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally. The futures valuation has room for repair, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [2][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market supply and demand of manganese silicon remain loose, and the upstream inventory pressure is large. The upward movement of the futures price may face selling pressure, and the upside space is limited. In the medium term, it will oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][15] - Ferrosilicon: The high cost supports the price bottom. Currently, the upstream supply pressure is not large, but in the off - season of terminal demand, the market supply and demand are both weak. The upside space of the futures price is not overly optimistic, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply and demand are in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress the price, expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][12] - Soda ash: Recently, the coal price recovery has strengthened the cost support. However, the overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][15] 3.5 Specific Analysis of Each Variety - Steel: The cost support is strong, and the futures market continues to rebound. The spot market trading is average. Steel production is decreasing, but rebar production has stabilized and rebounded. Demand is weak in the off - season but still has support. Steel inventories are decreasing, but the current inventory level is still high year - on - year, and demand may weaken. The upside space of the futures market is limited [6] - Iron ore: The spot price is weakly oscillating. Overseas shipments have decreased, arrivals have declined, and iron water production has dropped significantly. Port inventories are accumulating, and steel mills' restocking demand is slow to release. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [7] - Scrap steel: The supply is at a low level, and demand is stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price is expected to oscillate [9] - Coke: The third round of price cuts has been implemented, and coking enterprises' profits have turned negative. The production enthusiasm is okay, but some are restricted by environmental protection. Steel mills' inventories are increasing, and the overall market is stabilizing. The futures valuation has room for repair and is expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [11] - Coking coal: Affected by the earthquake, the market sentiment is high. Domestic supply is at a low level, and imports are high. The downstream has started to restock, and the futures valuation has room for repair [12] - Glass: The spot price is still weak, and the futures market is oscillating. The policy is positive, but the supply may decline in the long term and is difficult to have a large - scale cold - repair in the short term. The demand is weak, and middle - stream inventories are large, suppressing the valuation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price will oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [12] - Soda ash: The supply has slightly decreased, and demand is expected to weaken. The overall supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, and the market is at the bottom of the cycle. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [13][15] - Manganese silicon: The futures price is strongly oscillating, and the spot price has slightly increased. The cost has slightly loosened, demand is weak, and supply is difficult to significantly reduce inventory. The upside space of the futures price is limited, and it will oscillate at a low level in the medium term [15] - Ferrosilicon: The futures market is oscillating, and the spot price has little change. The cost is high, demand is weak, supply pressure has been alleviated, and the supply - demand relationship is balanced. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [16] 3.6 Index Information - On December 22, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities, the specialty index (Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index) all increased, with increases of 1.10%, 1.34% and 0.79% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.30% on the day, 2.44% in the past 5 days, - 0.06% in the past month, and - 6.26% since the beginning of the year [104][106]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - environment in 2026 continues to warm up. The combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair change" in the US is conducive to Fed easing, and the quality of January's economic data is expected to return to normal. The "broad fiscal + broad monetary" policy in the US will promote economic prosperity. The ECB maintained interest rates in December and raised GDP forecasts for this year and next, while Japan's interest rate hike was in line with expectations and not a radical tightening, with an upward adjustment of the 2025 GDP growth forecast and maintaining the 2026 forecast [6]. - In November domestically, social retail sales year - on - year was 1.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. Commodity retail continued to weaken, while service consumption improved. Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate continued to decline, but exports were strong [6]. - In asset allocation, the macro - environment is favorable for the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors. For precious metals, the logic for gold's rise is clear and it has a high safety margin, while silver's volatility risk increases after a sharp rise. For non - ferrous metals, there are opportunities to buy on dips for commodities with more supply disruptions like copper, aluminum, and tin, and attention should be paid to lithium carbonate with good supply - demand performance. The domestic equity sector should be defensive at the end of the year and during the policy window period [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures was at 4564.8 with a daily increase of 0.83%, weekly increase of 0.83%, monthly increase of 2.07%, quarterly decrease of 1.15%, and an annual increase of 16.42%. The Shanghai 50 futures was at 3018.4 with a daily increase of 0.40%, weekly increase of 0.40%, monthly increase of 2.01%, quarterly increase of 0.98%, and an annual increase of 12.71%. The CSI 500 futures was at 7123.2 with a daily increase of 0.96%, weekly increase of 0.96%, monthly increase of 4.74%, quarterly decrease of 2.29%, and an annual increase of 25.12%. The CSI 1000 futures was at 7203.6 with a daily increase of 0.87%, weekly increase of 0.87%, monthly increase of 2.53%, quarterly decrease of 2.74%, and an annual increase of 23.17% [2]. - **Bond Futures**: The 2 - year bond futures was at 102.464 with a daily decrease of 0.03%, weekly decrease of 0.03%, monthly increase of 0.08%, quarterly increase of 0.17%, and an annual decrease of 0.50%. The 5 - year bond futures was at 105.86 with a daily decrease of 0.10%, weekly decrease of 0.10%, monthly increase of 0.11%, quarterly increase of 0.32%, and an annual decrease of 0.64%. The 10 - year bond futures was at 107.98 with a daily decrease of 0.16%, weekly decrease of 0.16%, monthly increase of 0.04%, quarterly increase of 0.42%, and an annual decrease of 0.87%. The 30 - year bond futures was at 111.98 with a daily decrease of 0.60%, weekly decrease of 0.60%, monthly decrease of 2.19%, quarterly decrease of 1.40%, and an annual decrease of 5.76% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.7125 with no daily or weekly change, a monthly decrease of 0.73%, quarterly increase of 0.91%, and an annual decrease of 9.01%. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was at 1.1708, with 0 pips change daily and weekly, 107 pips increase monthly, 26 pips decrease quarterly, and 1355 pips increase annually. The US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate was at 157.729, with 0 pips daily change, no weekly change, 1.00% monthly increase, 6.63% quarterly increase, and 0.34% annual increase [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.44 with no daily or weekly change, a 6 - bp monthly decrease, 1 - bp quarterly decrease, and 31 - bp annual decrease. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.83 with a 0.5 - bp daily decrease, no weekly change, 1 - bp monthly decrease, 3 - bp quarterly decrease, and 0.2 - bp annual increase. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.16 with a 4 - bp daily increase, no weekly change, 0.03 - bp monthly increase, no quarterly change, and 39 - bp annual decrease [2]. 3.2 Overseas Commodity Market - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 56.54 with a daily increase of 1.14%, weekly decrease of 1.72%, monthly decrease of 3.32%, quarterly decrease of 9.43%, and an annual decrease of 21.33. ICE Brent crude oil was at 60.12 with a daily increase of 1.20%, weekly decrease of 1.80%, monthly decrease of 3.53%, quarterly decrease of 9.12%, and an annual decrease of 19.664. NYMEX natural gas was at 4.026 with a daily increase of 2.05%, weekly decrease of 1.83%, monthly decrease of 17.19%, quarterly increase of 20.86%, and an annual increase of 10.82% [2]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was at 4368.7 with a daily increase of 0.11%, weekly increase of 0.90%, monthly increase of 2.64%, quarterly increase of 12.38%, and an annual increase of 65.52%. COMEX silver was at 67.395 with a daily increase of 2.97%, weekly increase of 8.55%, monthly increase of 18.06%, quarterly increase of 43.88%, and an annual increase of 130.109 [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, etc. had different price changes. For example, LME copper had a certain increase in some periods, LME aluminum was at 2945 with a daily increase of 0.99%, weekly increase of 2.43%, monthly increase of 2.79%, quarterly increase of 9.60%, and an annual increase of 15.38% [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans were at 1049 with a daily decrease of 0.24%, weekly decrease of 2.53%, monthly decrease of 7.76%, quarterly increase of 4.82%, and an annual increase of 3.86%. CBOT corn was at 443.25 with a daily decrease of 0.17%, weekly increase of 0.62%, monthly decrease of 1.01%, quarterly increase of 6.55%, and an annual decrease of 3.38% [2]. 3.3 Domestic Commodity Market - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line was at 1871.8 with a daily increase of 8.84%, weekly increase of 8.84%, monthly increase of 27.17%, quarterly increase of 13.94%, and an annual decrease of 17.07% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold was at 1000.86 with a daily increase of 2.14%, weekly increase of 2.14%, monthly increase of 4.92%, quarterly increase of 14.15%, and an annual increase of 62.06%. Silver was at 16210 with a daily increase of 5.42%, weekly increase of 5.42%, monthly increase of 27.37%, quarterly increase of 48.06%, and an annual increase of 117.00% [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was at 94320 with a daily increase of 1.22%, weekly increase of 1.22%, monthly increase of 7.92%, quarterly increase of 13.57%, and an annual increase of 27.86%. Aluminum, zinc, and other non - ferrous metals also had their own price change trends [3]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as raw materials like iron ore, coke, and coking coal, had different price fluctuations. For example, rebar was at 3126 with a daily increase of 0.22%, weekly increase of 0.22%, monthly increase of 0.29%, quarterly decrease of 0.06%, and an annual decrease of 5.53% [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, and other energy and chemical products had various price changes. For example, crude oil was at 437.9 with a daily increase of 2.65%, weekly increase of 2.65%, monthly decrease of 3.78%, quarterly decrease of 8.73%, and an annual decrease of 21.79% [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Grains, oils, and livestock products such as soybeans, corn, and hogs had their own price trends. For example, hogs were at 11345 with a daily increase of 0.18%, weekly increase of 0.18%, monthly increase of 0.84%, quarterly decrease of 9.09%, and an annual decrease of 11.37% [3]. 3.4 Sector - by - Sector Short - term Judgments - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options are expected to be volatile, and bond futures are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping European line is expected to be volatile [7]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Some varieties like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals Sector**: Some varieties like PX and PTA are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to decline in a volatile manner, and most are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Some varieties like cotton are expected to be volatile, while others such as hogs and sugar are expected to decline in a volatile manner [9].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/23 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Dec's LPR release shows both the 5-year and 1-year rates remain unchanged. ...

T 自 限公司 2025年12月19日, PX/PTA出现了明显的增仓上涨,带领聚酯链全线飘红,主力合约涨幅超3%。 上涨原因 1、预期先行于吸实。市场对明年PX原料紧缺的顶膜胶为一致，2026年PI-PTA进入投产真空期，第二季度PA的检修高雄期进一步加剧了市场对上半年的原料紧缺预期，盘面价他也给了资金层 面比较明显的正反馈。 基本自信元 预期先行,上强下弱,利润博弈拉开序幕 中信期货研究所 能源化工团队 发射可动态 风 应提示 上行风险：宏观政策利好；能源价格大涨，需求超预期，PTA协同减产落实：下行风险：宏观政策利空，需求不及预期 图表 1: PXN 图表 2:聚酯长丝加权加工费 美元/吨 元/吨 · 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 2022 - 2021 2023 3500 700 600 3000 500 2500 400 300 2000 200 1500 2025/12/19 | | | 1000 | V | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01/02 02/07 03/14 04/19 05/26 07/01 08/06 ...

2025-12-22 朗 货 有 限 公 司 浮仓库存走高，陆地库存回落 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 s Company Limited 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 12月21日当周，全球原油陆上库存以及全口径（含在途）库存自高点回落,但浮仓库存延续攀升。陆上库存分区域看,中国主营炼厂处开工率 低点,原油库存连续第4周回升,印度、俄罗斯、中东、欧洲库存均回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 千種 千瓶 3800000 270000 2400000 3700000 210000 3600000 1800000 150000 35000000 120000 3400000 90000 3300000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓原油厂 E 4:全球陆如+海上(含在该)康波 - 2023 - 2022 - 202 ...

2025-12-22 朗 货 有 限 公 司 浮仓库存走高，陆地库存回落 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 s Company Limited 资料来源: Kpler 中信期货研究所 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 12月21日当周，全球原油陆上库存以及全口径（含在途）库存自高点回落,但浮仓库存延续攀升。陆上库存分区域看,中国主营炼厂处开工率 低点,原油库存连续第4周回升,印度、俄罗斯、中东、欧洲库存均回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 千種 千瓶 3800000 270000 2400000 3700000 210000 3600000 1800000 150000 35000000 120000 3400000 90000 3300000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓原油厂 E 4:全球陆如+海上(含在该)康波 ...

Report Summary Report Information - Report Title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 51, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Cheng Xiaoqing, Gan Qing [3] - Report Date: December 22, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The issuance of new special bonds and general bonds shows a certain pattern, and the net financing scale of government bonds, local bonds, and national debt has changed significantly this week. The issuance progress of new local bonds and national debt net financing has reached a relatively high level. [4][10][12] Key Points by Category New Special Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 29.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.8 billion yuan from the previous week. As of December 21, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 104.0%. Next week, the planned issuance is 2 billion yuan. [4] - As of December 21, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 118.4 billion yuan. [4] New General Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 6 billion yuan, a decrease of 15 billion yuan from the previous week. As of December 21, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 96.3%. Next week, the planned issuance is 0 billion yuan. [4][18][19] - As of December 21, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 38.4 billion yuan. [4] New Local Bond Issuance - As of December 21, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 102.8%. [10] National Debt Net Financing - As of December 21, the national debt net financing progress was 95.5%. This week, the national debt net financing scale was -47.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 285.3 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 118 billion yuan. [12] Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was -19.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 319.5 billion yuan from the previous week. As of December 21, the national debt net financing + new local bond issuance progress was 98.7%. Next week, the planned net financing is 114.8 billion yuan. [12] Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the local bond net financing scale was 28.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.2 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is -3.2 billion yuan. [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance of new special bonds this week was 29.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of December 21, the issuance progress of new special bonds reached 104.0%. Next week, 2 billion yuan of special bonds are planned to be issued [4]. - As of December 21, the issuance progress of new local bonds reached 102.8% [10]. - As of December 21, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 95.5%. This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was -47.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 285.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 118 billion yuan [12]. - This week, the net financing of government bonds was -19.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 319.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of December 21, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance reached 98.7%. Next week, the planned net financing is 114.8 billion yuan [12]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 28.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is -3.2 billion yuan [13]. - As of December 21, the issuance progress of new general bonds reached 96.3% [18]. - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 6 billion yuan, a decrease of 15 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week, no general bonds are planned to be issued [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs New Special Bonds - This week's issuance: 29.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week [4]. - Issuance progress as of December 21: 104.0% [4]. - Next week's planned issuance: 2 billion yuan [4]. New General Bonds - This week's issuance: 6 billion yuan, a decrease of 15 billion yuan compared to the previous week [19]. - Issuance progress as of December 21: 96.3% [18]. - Next week's planned issuance: 0 billion yuan [19]. New Local Bonds - Issuance progress as of December 21: 102.8% [10]. Treasury Bonds - Net financing progress as of December 21: 95.5% [12]. - This week's net financing scale: -47.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 285.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week [12]. - Next week's planned net financing: 118 billion yuan [12]. Government Bonds - This week's net financing: -19.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 319.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week [12]. - Progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance as of December 21: 98.7% [12]. - Next week's planned net financing: 114.8 billion yuan [12]. Local Bonds - This week's net financing scale: 28.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week [13]. - Next week's planned net financing: -3.2 billion yuan [13].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The expectation of mine restart has been postponed, and market sentiment has pushed up lithium prices. Short - term lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain high, and optimistic sentiment may drive prices to fluctuate strongly in the context of a positive market outlook next year [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Dynamics and Reasons - On December 19, 2025, the unloading price of lithium carbonate opened sharply higher in the afternoon, breaking through the 10,000 - yuan mark, mainly due to the postponed expectation of the restart of the Shixiawo mine. The previous expectation of restart in December has been postponed to next year as the environmental impact assessment information of the mine project was publicly announced [2] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the long - term demand is expected to be robust. Market trading focuses on the restart time of the Shixiawo mine and the off - season demand performance. The restart of the Shixiawo mine has great uncertainty and is regarded as a potential negative before definite news. The off - season demand shows that the battery and material production declined in January - February in the past three years. From December 1 - 14, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 476,000, a 4% year - on - year decrease and a 1% month - on - month increase. The inventory reduction slowed down this week, and some battery materials prices dropped [3] Summary and Strategy - In the short term, the downward pressure on lithium carbonate prices is weakened, and the rigid and speculative demand will drive up prices. The off - season inventory accumulation needs to wait. The production schedule in January and the restart of the Shixiawo mine are key factors affecting prices. The supply - demand gap can be felt by observing inventory changes [4]