1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - Oils and fats: Bullish with oscillations [8] - Protein meal: Sideways movement [11] - Corn/starch: Sideways movement [14] - Hogs: Bearish with oscillations [16] - Natural rubber: Sideways movement within a range [20] - Synthetic rubber: Bullish with oscillations after adjustment [22] - Cotton: Bullish with oscillations [23] - Sugar: Bearish with oscillations [24] - Pulp: Bearish with oscillations [25] - Offset paper: Bearish with oscillations [27] - Logs: Sideways movement [28] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the supply, demand, and market trends of various agricultural products. It points out that the hog market is under pressure due to oversupply in the short - to - medium term but may improve in the second half of 2026. Oils and fats are supported by factors such as palm oil production decline and export increase. Protein meal is affected by overseas supply and domestic inventory. Corn and starch markets are in a tight balance. Other products also have their own supply - demand characteristics and market trends [16][8][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Bullish with oscillations. The overall trend of vegetable oils is bullish due to factors like the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and the increase in exports. The market is also affected by factors such as Trump's tariff remarks on canola and the expected bio - diesel policy in the US [8]. - **Logic**: In January 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, while exports increased. The Canadian canola supply and demand situation has changed, and the US bio - diesel policy provides emotional support. The supply of soybeans and canola is relatively abundant, and palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend [8]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations. It is recommended to consider buying hedging after a pullback and a long - palm oil short - canola oil arbitrage strategy [9]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Sideways movement. The international soybean trade premium has increased, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high [11]. - **Logic**: Brazil's soybean harvest progress is normal, while Argentina may face potential production reduction risks. The US soybean supply is expected to increase, and the net long position of US soybean funds has decreased. In China, the inventory reduction of oil mills is slow, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking provides some support, but the increase in the oil mill operating rate suppresses the upward movement of the price [11]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The soybean meal will continue to trade in a low - level range, and the canola meal is expected to move sideways [11]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Sideways movement. The spot price is firm, and the futures price is adjusting [13]. - **Logic**: The supply in the upstream is slightly loose, but the overall situation is still tight. The selling pressure before the Spring Festival is not large, and the feed enterprises maintain a certain inventory. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory has increased, but the subsequent upward momentum is limited. The substitute grains and policy grains also affect the market [14]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The market is in a state with a ceiling and a floor in the short term [14]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The upstream supply is sufficient, and the hog price continues to weaken [15]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the slaughter rhythm is slow at the beginning of the month and may accelerate at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply will be in surplus until April 2026. In the long term, the sow capacity started to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand is shrinking, and the inventory has increased [16]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. There is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals will remain weak after the festival. It is recommended to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The hog cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [16]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Sideways movement within a range. The price is affected by factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand [19]. - **Logic**: The natural rubber price has been oscillating at a high level. The overseas supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from tire enterprises before the festival provides some support, but the inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, but the rubber is supported by the bullish trend of the chemical sector [20]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. It is recommended to adopt a long - position strategy on pullbacks in the medium term, and the short - term price may return to a wide - range oscillation [20]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: There is a need for adjustment. The price of butadiene rubber has increased rapidly and needs to be adjusted [21]. - **Logic**: The BR futures price has fallen after a sharp rise. The overall chemical sector has seen a large outflow of funds, but the medium - term core logic of tight butadiene supply in the first half of 2026 remains unchanged. The price of butadiene has continued to rise, and the market sentiment is bullish [22]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations after adjustment. The butadiene supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but short - term adjustment is needed [22]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Bullish with oscillations. The price is adjusting, and attention should be paid to the lower support [23]. - **Logic**: The cotton inspection is nearing completion, the cotton import has increased, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking has increased. The cotton fundamentals are healthy, but there is a lack of new positive factors in the short term. In the medium and long term, the cotton supply may be in a tight - balance situation, and the price is expected to rise [23]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks [23]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The sugar price is oscillating [24]. - **Logic**: The global raw sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season, and the prices of domestic and international sugar have fallen to a relatively low level. The production in major producing countries is increasing, and the domestic supply is also increasing [24]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. It is recommended to short on rebounds [24]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The broad - leaf pulp price is falling, and the pulp fundamentals are weak [25]. - **Logic**: The demand for pulp is decreasing due to the decline in downstream production. The broad - leaf pulp has weakened significantly, while the impact on coniferous pulp is relatively small. The import cost provides some support, but there are many negative factors such as seasonal demand decline and abundant inventory [25]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. The pulp futures price is expected to move weakly in the short - term range [25]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The offset paper is trading in a range [27]. - **Logic**: The offset paper market is stable, but the supply pressure still exists. The downstream demand is weak, and the paper mills' price - increase efforts are difficult to pass on. The industry's operating rate is expected to decline, and the market trading volume is expected to decrease [27]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. The spot price is expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and the futures price will oscillate weakly in the range [27]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Sideways movement. Attention should be paid to breaking through the upper pressure level [28]. - **Logic**: The log futures price has been oscillating around 770 - 780 yuan/cubic meter. The next pressure level is around 800 yuan/cubic meter. The negative factors in the market have been digested, and the spot price has increased, which may drive the market sentiment. The 03 contract can be traded in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/cubic meter [28]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The market is expected to trade in a short - term range [28].

册货有限公司 中东库存持续回升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 Kp ler数据显示: 1月25日当周，全球陆地及浮仓库存变动较小,全口径（含在途）库存回落，即在途船货数量减少。陆上库存分区域看,中 国、俄罗斯、中东库存回升,其中中东库存开年以来自底部持续回升,印度、欧洲库存回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 - 2023 - 2022 2026 · - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2025 -- 2024 手段 千瓶 3600000 2400000 210000 3550000 180000 35000000 150000 3450000 120000 34000000 90000 3350000 3300000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 图表 3:全球陆塑+学仓展油 2023 - 2022 2023 - 2022 千橙 千種 3800000 4900000 0000000 3700000 47 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The long - term upward trend of gold and silver prices is expected to continue, and the target range for this year is raised. The upper limit of spot gold is expected to be 5900 - 6000 US dollars per ounce, and the upper limit of spot silver is expected to be 120 - 150 US dollars per ounce. However, the risk of overheating in the short - term market continues to increase, and investors need to pay attention to the rhythm and holding position risks [8][11] 3. Summary by Related Contents Price Movement - On January 26th, the prices of gold and silver rose sharply. The Shanghai Gold Index rose by 3.67% and the Shanghai Silver Index rose by 12.78%. The spot price of gold in London broke through $5,100 per ounce, and the spot price of silver in London approached $110 per ounce [3][4] Commentary and Outlook - **Geopolitical Factors**: In January, the US had frequent conflicts with South America, Europe, and Iran. Geopolitical risks led to a credit crisis in the US dollar, which was an important upward driver for precious metals. Disputes over Greenland between the US and Europe and the tense situation in Iran repeatedly disturbed the market, and the risk - aversion sentiment provided direct impetus for precious metals. The poor performance of US stocks, bonds, and currencies in January further supported the long - term upward trend of precious metals [6][9] - **Federal Reserve Factors**: The chairperson of the Federal Reserve was undecided, and the independence risk exceeded the impact of delaying the interest rate cut. The recently disclosed economic data in the US maintained overall resilience, and the Fed's attendance for the interest rate cut this year was postponed to June. However, the precious metals market responded minimally to the delay of the interest rate cut expectation. Reid became the candidate with the highest winning probability, and his dovish remarks injected a strong stimulant into the future interest rate cut space [7][10] - **Market Risk and Target Range**: The risk of overheating in the short - term market continues to increase. The volatility of silver prices has remained at a historical high, and gold prices have risen. The conclusion of the 232 investigation on key minerals eliminated the short - term tariff risk for silver, and the return of inventory led to a decline in the London silver lease interest rate. If geopolitical issues ease temporarily or the Federal Reserve makes an unexpected hawkish statement, it may increase the risk of short - term market adjustment. Based on multiple factors, the target range for gold and silver this year is raised [8][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of the stock market is still positive despite the recent pullback. In the stock index futures market, it is recommended to hold IC long positions. In the stock index options market, it is advisable to buy call options. For the bond market, the short - term strategy is mainly arbitrage, focusing on the convergence opportunity of the 30 - 10Y Treasury bond term spread [1][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Views Stock Index Futures - The market had a small pullback on Monday due to the general decline in the Asia - Pacific market. The defensive dividend index led, and the inflation - related sectors such as non - ferrous metals and oil and gas were relatively strong. The pullback was related to the unstable external environment and the profit - taking demand of some funds. It is recommended to hold IC long positions as the financial indicators of CSI 500 are more closely related to PPI [1][6]. Stock Index Options - The style of the underlying market was differentiated, with large - cap dividend stocks rising and small - and medium - cap indices falling. Option trading volume increased, and the volatility of each variety generally rose. The sentiment indicators showed different trends, and the put - call ratio of some varieties rebounded from the bottom while others declined from the high. The skewness index was generally low, indicating strong buying sentiment. It is recommended to buy call options, and the short - selling option strategy should be on hold for now [7]. Treasury Futures - The main contracts of Treasury futures showed a differentiated trend, with the curve flattening. The tight balance of the inter - bank market funds was not significantly alleviated, and the central bank's net withdrawal of funds had a negative impact on the short - and medium - term bonds. The decline of the equity market supported the long - term bonds. The 30 - 10Y Treasury bond term spread was at a relatively high level in the past three years, with a certain mean - reversion space. Short - term strategies are mainly arbitrage, focusing on the convergence of the 30 - 10Y Treasury bond term spread [2][7]. Derivatives Market Monitoring - No specific data content is summarized in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 26, equity index futures and CGB futures were mixed, and most commodities rose, with precious metals leading the gains [2][4][11][13][14] - Geopolitical risks and the dollar credit crisis are key drivers for the upward movement of precious metals. The long - term upward trend of gold and silver is expected to persist, and the annual target ranges are revised up [19][22][24] - Platinum prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias in the medium to long term due to supply - demand fundamentals and macro liquidity [27][31][32] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On January 26, in equity index futures, IH rose 0.5% and IM dropped 2.2%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.20% and TF dropped 0.02%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were silver (up 12.8% with a 2.0% month - on - month increase in open interest), platinum (up 9.7% with a 3.7% month - on - month increase in open interest), and palladium (up 7.2% with a 0.9% month - on - month decrease in open interest). The top three decliners were lithium carbonate (down 6.6% with a 5.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest), live hog (down 1.0% with a 1.5% month - on - month increase in open interest), and iron ore (down 0.9% with a 0.1% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [11][12][13][14] 3.1.2 Daily Raise 3.1.2.1 Gold & Silver - On January 26, gold and silver prices surged sharply. SHFE Gold rose 3.67% and SHFE Silver jumped 12.78%. Spot London Gold broke through $5,100 per ounce intraday, and Spot London Silver approached $110 per ounce [18][22] - Geopolitical risks and the dollar credit crisis are key drivers for the upward movement. The Fed's independence risk has become the core focus. Short - term overheating risks are increasing, but the long - term upward trend is expected to persist, and the annual target ranges are revised up [19][22][24] 3.1.2.3 Platinum - On January 26, platinum rose 9.7% to 744.70 yuan/g. Supply - demand fundamentals and macro liquidity support the medium - to - long - term upward trend. South African floods may disrupt supply, and geopolitical tensions are a source of volatility. Long - term, supply risks and expanding demand support a long - position view [27][31][32] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to reports that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit China this week, stating that relevant information will be released in a timely manner [36][37] - A policy document on accelerating the cultivation of new growth drivers for service consumption will be launched soon [36][37] 3.2.2 Industry News - The CSRC further expands the scope of futures market open varieties, adding 14 new international specific products accessible to overseas investors [38][39] - The SHFE adjusts price limit ranges and margin ratios for futures contracts of nickel, aluminium oxide, lead, zinc and stainless steel [38][39] - The CSRC approves the registration of TSR 20 Options, LSFO Options and Copper(BC) Options [38][39]

Report Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The supply side of steel is disturbed, the resumption of production by steel mills is slow, and the high shipment and high inventory of iron ore suppress the valuation of the futures market. As the downstream replenishment of coking coal and coke progresses, the support for replenishment weakens. During the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the cost - side support is loosening, causing the futures market to face pressure. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress futures prices. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity, and the resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the replenishment expectation, with the furnace material prices having the expectation of a low - level rebound [1][2][3] Summary by Category 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while Brazil and non - mainstream countries have declined. The arrival volume has weakened, and there are still expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and steel mills are in the process of replenishing inventory but with weak enthusiasm. Ports and steel mills are both increasing inventory, and the total inventory pressure is accumulating. In the short term, the supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory pressure increases. The pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price, and the supply - demand situation remains to be verified, with the short - term trend expected to be oscillatory [8] - **Scrap Steel**: The average arrival volume this week has slightly decreased, lower than the same period in previous lunar years. The daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has also slightly decreased. Steel enterprises' inventory has increased, and the pre - festival replenishment progress is close to last year. The supply is stable, the daily consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with the spot price expected to follow the finished products [9] 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost - side support is strong, and there are still expectations for the resumption of production by steel mills and winter storage replenishment demand. The supply - demand structural contradiction is limited, and the spot price increase is still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is stable, and the import of Mongolian coal is at a high level. The demand side is still in the winter storage stage, and the supply of coal mines is expected to decline near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to marginally improve, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has factored in the winter - storage replenishment, the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3. Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand remains loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the futures price. However, the current futures price has fallen to a low level, and the further downward space is limited under the cost support, with the price expected to operate at a low level around the cost valuation [3][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is weak, the fundamental contradiction is limited, but the poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [3][17] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has expectations of disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is in oversupply. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][14][16] 5. Steel - The spot market trading is average, the profitability of steel mills is improving, the iron - water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the production of the five major steel products has remained stable. During the off - season, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is emerging. Based on the subsequent resumption of production by steel mills and winter - storage replenishment, the downside space of furnace materials is limited, and the cost side has support. However, due to the inventory accumulation pressure and lack of fundamental highlights, the futures market faces upward pressure, and it is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [8] 6. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index increased by 1.13% to 2503.03, the Commodity 20 Index increased by 1.44% to 2879.55, the industrial products index increased by 0.40% to 2369.84, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.19% to 1461.06 [102] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on January 26, 2026, was 1989.86, with a daily decline of 0.36%, a 5 - day increase of 0.93%, a 1 - month increase of 0.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.70% [103]

地缘扰动与弱美元共振，⾦银再度加速 上⾏ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-27 在地缘⻛险与美元信⽤担忧主导下，贵⾦属近期强势上⾏。⻩⾦短期延续 强势但⾼位波动⻛险放⼤，中⻓期上涨逻辑未改；⽩银凭借更强弹性短期 加速上涨后或转⼊⾼位震荡，但需警惕快速上涨后的回撤⻛险。两者均需 关注地缘局势、美联储政策变化等⻛险因素。（以上数据与新闻均来⾃万 得数据终端） 黄金观点 短期延续强势上行，地缘风险与美元信用逻辑主导，需关注高位波动 放大风险。 逻辑： 1月26日金银价格再度大幅拉升。截至国内收盘，沪金上涨3. 67%，伦敦金现日内突破5100美元/盎司，刷新历史高位。1月以来， 美国与南美、欧洲及伊朗相关冲突频繁，地缘风险持续外溢，市场对 美元信用的担忧有所升温。在美国股债汇同步走弱的背景下，贵金属 的避险与再定价属性阶段性占优，成为金价上行的重要驱动。（以上 数据及新闻均来自万得数据终端） 展望：在地缘冲突反复、美元信用叙事强化及美联储独立性风险抬升 的背景下，黄金中长期上涨逻辑未改，短期需警惕高位波动放大与情 绪过热后的技术性修正。 白银观点 短期延续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market continues to fluctuate. Multiple factors affect oil prices. The actual supply and demand of crude oil show that Kazakhstan's crude oil supply is expected to return, which will help ease the tight situation in the European market. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East support oil prices, but the market is in a state of oversupply. The short - term trend is dominated by the Iranian situation [1][6]. - The chemical sector continues to fluctuate. The influence of supply - demand factors has weakened, and market expectations play a strong role. The inventory of liquid chemicals has increased weekly, and the industry is about to enter the off - season, leading to inventory accumulation. The overall chemical market is in a fluctuating pattern [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views on Different Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm. - **Main Logic**: US crude oil production was temporarily affected by the cold wave last week, but the impact was short - lived. US oil product inventories are at a high level, indicating a pessimistic fundamental outlook. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the short - term trend is dominated by the Iranian situation. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Although the fundamentals are still in a state of oversupply, potential disturbances in supply expectations due to geopolitical situations in Iran and Russia are frequent, causing the geopolitical premium to fluctuate [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The cost of crude oil supports asphalt futures prices. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the partial lifting of sanctions on Venezuela will lead to abundant long - term asphalt supply, which is a significant negative factor. The repeated situation between the US and Iran provides cost - side support for asphalt futures. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The absolute price of asphalt is in an overvalued range, and its long - term valuation is expected to decline [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium strengthens the support for fuel oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases, and the US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, leading to a strong expectation of increased heavy - oil supply, which puts long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increase the geopolitical premium, but high floating - storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the replacement of fuel - oil power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics in the Middle East are long - term negative factors. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The expected growth in Venezuela's oil production puts long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical trends in the Middle East [8]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The sharp rise in natural gas prices may support low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Main Logic**: The sharp rise in US natural gas prices drives the refining spread of refined oil products and boosts the expectation of low - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is supported. However, it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel and high - sulfur substitution, but it may follow the movement of crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Capital positions still provide some support for PX, but the near - term performance of the industry is average. - **Main Logic**: The downstream PTA is relatively strong, supporting the bullish sentiment of PX. Although the load of polyester factories is accelerating its decline and the terminal is entering the holiday season, short - term inventory is accumulating, but market sentiment still supports prices. - **Outlook**: In the short term, PX prices will fluctuate under the support of sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support level of around 7300 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract, and the PXN is expected to fluctuate within the range of [340, 380] US dollars/ton [10]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The near - month inventory accumulation trend is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to capital flow. - **Main Logic**: The short - term capital side still provides strong support for PTA prices, but the industry itself performs averagely. Downstream polyester factories are accelerating production cuts, and the off - season in the terminal textile industry is deepening, leading to an accumulation of PTA supply and demand. - **Outlook**: It is expected that PTA will maintain a fluctuating consolidation in the short term. Bullish capital provides some support for the futures price. Attention should be paid to the support level of around 30 yuan/ton for the TA05 - 09 spread. In the short term, the TA processing fee will remain at a high level, and the industry can hedge to lock in production profits [10][12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: The game between expectations and reality leads to a fluctuating operation of pure benzene. - **Main Logic**: The recent rise is due to factors such as the first de - stocking of pure benzene in East China ports in nearly two months, downstream profit - locking driving up the price of pure benzene, and the supplementary rise under the multi - allocation atmosphere of aromatics. Although the high inventory may limit the increase in the short term, the fundamentals will improve quarter - on - quarter in the first quarter. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. High inventory needs time to be digested, but the fundamentals will improve quarter - on - quarter in Q1, and it is expected to fluctuate under the strong sentiment of energy - chemical products [16]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Capital behavior combined with export narratives has led to a recent rise in styrene. - **Main Logic**: The recent strong rise in styrene prices is due to capital behavior under the expectations of the long - term bottom of the chemical industry and the rotation of commodity sectors. In addition, the supply - demand of styrene has been tight recently, and the expected inventory accumulation in January has turned into de - stocking. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. Although there will be seasonal inventory accumulation and a narrowing of profits, the impact of exports and better fundamentals than pure benzene are expected to limit the decline [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: There is still a lack of upward driving force in the near term, and the price will fluctuate widely within the range. - **Main Logic**: Ethylene glycol is affected by capital and market sentiment in the short term. In terms of the industry, there is still significant pressure on inventory accumulation, and there is a lack of effective upward driving force. Domestic supply reduction is slow, and the domestic operating rate is expected to continue to rise at the end of the month. - **Outlook**: The price will maintain a range - bound consolidation in the short term. Operate within the range of [3800 - 4050] yuan/ton. Pay short - term attention to the operation of EG05 - 09 within the range of [- 120, - 85] yuan/ton [18][20]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The market has a strong wait - and - see attitude, and subsequent demand is expected to decline. - **Main Logic**: After the sharp rise in prices, the market has a strong wait - and - see attitude. Some spinning mills plan to enter the holiday at the end of the month, and the sustainability of subsequent demand is weak. The supply - demand of short - fiber is expected to weaken marginally. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will follow the adjustment of upstream raw materials, and the processing fee will be slightly under pressure [21][22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: It will follow the cost fluctuations, and the support for profits will be enhanced. - **Main Logic**: The prices of upstream raw materials are consolidating at a high level, and the trading atmosphere has declined slightly. With the reduction in the supply of polyester bottle chips, the support for processing fees is relatively strong, and the absolute price will follow the fluctuations of upstream raw materials. - **Outlook**: The absolute value will follow the raw material fluctuations, and the support for processing fees will be enhanced [23][24]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: There is a long - short game in coastal areas, and methanol will fluctuate within a range. - **Main Logic**: The fundamental situation of the inland market is that supply is stronger than demand. The upstream is actively reducing prices to sell goods, and the downstream is actively purchasing at low prices. Coastal inventory is high, and the pressure on de - stocking is increasing. However, the bullish factors of overseas disturbances are stronger, and the market is mainly trading on the expected disturbances to Iranian methanol plants if a conflict breaks out between the US and Iran. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The situation in Iran is still uncertain, and there is still uncertainty about overseas plant disturbances. Although the actual support of the fundamentals is limited after excluding overseas disturbances, short - term trading will probably focus on the development of the overseas situation, and the futures price may still have room to rise [26][27][28]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Market transactions are in a stalemate, and urea will fluctuate and consolidate. - **Main Logic**: The supply side has increased production as previously shut - down and some gas - based plants have gradually resumed operation, with overall sufficient supply. On the demand side, agricultural demand only has moderate follow - up in some areas, and industrial demand is mainly for on - demand replenishment. The actual spot transactions are insufficient, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. There is no substantial guidance in the market currently. There is rigid support from agricultural and industrial demand at low prices, but agricultural demand does not support a concentrated boom, and industrial demand is expected to decline in the twelfth lunar month. The market is in a stalemate, and the short - term market may continue to consolidate [28][29]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The raw material end and macro factors drive the rebound, but the upward space is limited. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and the high inventory of US oil products points to a pessimistic fundamental outlook. The cold wave in the US has driven up the price of natural gas, which has boosted the performance of plastics through ethane. After the rebound, the profits of various production methods have been repaired, but the spot follow - up is limited. The demand for plastics is in the off - season, and the demand support is still cautious. There is still an expectation of macro - consumption policy stimulus in the future. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation [33]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The basis support is limited, and the upward space of PP is cautiously viewed. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and the high inventory of US oil products points to a pessimistic fundamental outlook. The profits of various PP production methods have been repaired, and the upward space is limited. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and the trading volume has decreased recently. After the price rebound, the downstream confidence has been slightly repaired, and there is an expectation of macro - consumption policy stimulus. Short - term maintenance support still exists, and attention should be paid to PDH and the impact of profit changes on maintenance intentions. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation in the short term [34]. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: Supply is tight, and PL will fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance still provides a boost. The overall supply of propylene is tight, enterprise inventory is low, and some offers continue to rise. Downstream buying is active, and the actual transaction price has increased. The short - term profit of powder materials fluctuates slightly, and the support from downstream demand in the off - season is limited. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation in the short term [35]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: The cold wave disturbs the supply expectation, and PVC rebounds slightly. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions and the overseas cold wave have formed potential supply disturbances, boosting the commodity market sentiment. At the micro - level, the "rush for exports" of PVC supports demand, and the overseas cold wave disturbs the supply expectation, with the possibility of fundamental improvement. However, the downstream start - up will decline seasonally, and the inventory replenishment intention is not strong. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation. The "rush for exports" of PVC and the overseas supply disturbance expectation provide support, but the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the futures price will be in a fluctuating state [36]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: Profits are significantly compressed, and caustic soda should be stopped for profit at low prices. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical tensions and the overseas cold wave have formed potential supply disturbances, boosting the commodity market sentiment. At the micro - level, the weak reality of caustic soda continues, and inventory is still accumulating. The fundamentals show that the marginal profit of alumina plants is poor, the inventory of Weiqiao's caustic soda is high, the demand for caustic soda from non - aluminum industries is weak, the upstream start - up rate changes little, and the output of caustic soda remains at a high level. The price of liquid chlorine is stable in the short term, but the risk of price decline increases approaching the Spring Festival, and the dynamic cost of caustic soda in Shandong is rising. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation with a weak trend. The upstream will actively reduce inventory before the Spring Festival, and the caustic soda spot price is still under pressure. Considering the increasing risk of liquid chlorine price decline before the Spring Festival, short positions in caustic soda should be stopped for profit at low prices [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Data on the cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., is given, including the latest values and changes [41]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Data on the cross - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc., are presented, including the latest values and changes [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content is summarized in the given text, but the monitoring involves multiple varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and plate index of the commodity are provided. The comprehensive index shows an upward trend, with the energy index having significant increases in the short - term, near - term, and long - term [282][283].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural commodities: - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [4][7]. - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [9][11]. - **Corn/Starch**: Expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Hogs**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short - term, and the price is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [13]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate, with a mid - term strategy of buying on dips [16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias in the mid - term [19]. - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, suggesting buying on dips [20]. - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [20]. - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [21][23]. - **Offset Paper**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [24]. - **Logs**: Expected to fluctuate within a range [25]. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural commodities. Overall, the market is influenced by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, international trade, and weather. There are opportunities for short - term trading and mid - to long - term investment strategies in different commodities, but also risks associated with market fluctuations [4][7][9][11][12][13][16][19][20][21][23][24][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **View**: Concerns over China - Canada trade relations led to a significant increase in rapeseed oil prices. Overall, the upward trend of vegetable oils was supported by rising crude oil prices and positive fundamental expectations [1][6]. - **Logic**: Rapeseed oil was affected by Trump's tariff remarks, raising concerns about future rapeseed supply. The 2025/26 Canadian rapeseed production was a record high, but exports were expected to decrease. For soybeans, the US biodiesel policy provided emotional support. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in January 2026, while exports increased, with favorable export expectations [1][6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Suggest considering buying on dips for hedging and a long - palm oil, short - rapeseed oil arbitrage strategy [4][7]. 2. Protein Meal - **View**: Pre - holiday stocking led to an increase in the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the market sentiment was positive for US soybeans due to potential Chinese purchases and the US biodiesel policy, but the Brazilian soybean harvest and increased supply expectations were negative factors. Domestically, oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories were high, and the price of soybean meal was expected to be under pressure. The price of rapeseed meal was expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [9][11]. 3. Corn/Starch - **View**: The market was influenced by both positive and negative factors and was expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Logic**: The supply was in a tight balance. The pre - holiday selling pressure was not large, and the feed enterprises' inventory could cover the Spring Festival. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory increased, but the demand was weak. The substitution of grains and policy grain auctions also affected the market [12]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate. The market was in a state with an upper limit and a lower limit [12]. 4. Hogs - **View**: The reduction in slaughter orders led to a decline in hog prices [13]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply pressure was increasing due to slow - paced January slaughter and the entry of second - fattening pigs. In the medium - term, the supply would be excessive until April 2026. In the long - term, the supply pressure was expected to ease after May 2026. The demand was weak, and the inventory was increasing [13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short - term. The industry was advised to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The hog cycle was expected to bottom out in the second half of 2026 [13]. 5. Natural Rubber - **View**: The price faced significant pressure from previous highs [16]. - **Logic**: After being driven up by synthetic rubber, the price of natural rubber fluctuated sideways. The supply was relatively abundant, and the demand was not strong, with a fast inventory build - up. However, it was supported by the positive sentiment in the chemical sector [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental variables were limited, and it was difficult to break through the previous high. It was recommended to buy on dips in the mid - term, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate widely [16]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The operating logic remained unchanged, and the price was expected to be strong [19]. - **Logic**: The market was trading on the expectation of a tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. The rotation of commodity funds to the chemical sector also had a positive impact. The price of butadiene was rising due to limited supply and strong demand [19]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene was expected to improve, but there was short - term pressure. The mid - term trend was expected to be upward [19]. 7. Cotton - **View**: The cotton price fluctuated and adjusted, lacking new positive factors in the short - term [20]. - **Logic**: The cotton inspection was almost finished. The import of cotton and cotton yarn increased, and the downstream stocking increased. The commercial inventory was accumulating, but the overall apparent consumption was good. In the long - term, the supply might be tight, but there was short - term resistance [20]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. It was recommended to buy on dips [20]. 8. Sugar - **View**: There was support at the bottom, but the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [20]. - **Logic**: Globally, the sugar market was expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. All major producing countries were expected to increase production, putting pressure on sugar prices. The current valuation was relatively low, and the price was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [20]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. It was recommended to short on rebounds [20]. 9. Pulp - **View**: The price of hardwood pulp continued to decline, and the pulp fundamentals were weak [21]. - **Logic**: The demand for pulp decreased as the downstream production declined. The demand feedback was more significant for hardwood pulp. The main positive factor was the rising US dollar price of pulp, while there were more negative factors such as seasonal demand weakness and abundant supply [21]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [21][23]. 10. Offset Paper - **View**: There was no positive driving force, and the price was expected to be weak [24]. - **Logic**: The supply was abundant, and the high pulp cost squeezed profits. The market demand was weak, and the price increase was difficult to pass on. The industry's production might decrease, and the trading volume was expected to weaken [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. The spot price was expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and the price was expected to fluctuate within a range [24]. 11. Logs - **View**: The spot price in Lanshan increased, and the price was expected to be strong within a range [25]. - **Logic**: The log market first declined and then rebounded. The next - period overseas quotation was expected to increase. The delivery pressure decreased, and the spot supply in Jiangsu was tight. The price was expected to be strong in the short - term [25]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate within a range. The negative factors were digested, and the spot price increase might boost market sentiment [25]. 12. Commodity Index - **On January 26, 2026**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the 20 - commodity index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index), and agricultural product index all showed increases. The agricultural product index had a daily increase of 0.54%, a 5 - day increase of 1.27%, a 1 - month increase of 2.37%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.40% [189][190].

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating and Core View - The overall view of the non-ferrous metals industry is that the breakdown of the US dollar index provides a boost to base metals. In the short and medium term, high inventories put pressure on prices, but the logic of a weak US dollar and supply disruption concerns remains. In the long term, there are expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to lead to tighter supply - demand conditions. The report suggests paying attention to opportunities for low - absorption and long - position in copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. [1] Group 2: Analysis of Each Metal Copper - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][6] - **Logic**: In 2026, the Fed may continue to be loose, providing support to copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tightening, and the processing fees for long - term contracts in 2026 are at a record low, strengthening the expectation of supply contraction in refined copper. Although terminal demand is weak during the off - season and inventory is accumulating, the future supply - demand is expected to be tighter. [6] Alumina - **View**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuate, with a medium - term outlook of oscillation. [2][7] - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. China is still in a strong inventory - building trend. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are weak, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation enters a low - level range, price fluctuations may increase. [7] Aluminum - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level, with a short - term outlook of being volatile and bullish, and a medium - term outlook of the price center rising. [2][9] - **Logic**: The macro - environment is positive, with expectations of US interest rate cuts and the implementation of China's "Two New" policies. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, but there are supply constraints overseas. High aluminum prices suppress demand in the short term, but overall, the short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. [10] Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Cost support continues, and the market fluctuates at a high level, with a short - and medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][11] - **Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate has increased, but there may be supply constraints from policies. Demand is mainly for rigid needs in the short term, and the "old - for - new" policy for cars is expected to support demand in the medium term. [11] Zinc - **View**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector has improved, and zinc prices have stabilized and rebounded, with an overall outlook of oscillation. [2][12] - **Logic**: Although US economic data has pushed up the US dollar, the expectation of a weak US dollar remains. Zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and refinery profits are declining. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, but zinc exports are expected to continue, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has room to decline. In the long term, zinc supply is expected to increase while demand growth is limited. [13] Lead - **View**: Social inventory is accumulating, but the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is good, and lead prices fluctuate, with an outlook of oscillation. [2][17] - **Logic**: The spot premium has decreased, and the production of lead ingots has increased slightly. The demand for electric bicycles is weak, but the demand for automotive batteries is improving. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is still at a relatively high level compared to previous years. [17] Nickel - **View**: Policy expectations compete with the weak reality, and nickel prices fluctuate, with an outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][18] - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and demand is in the traditional off - season, with an overall oversupply in the fundamentals. Indonesia's potential policy changes regarding nickel ore pricing and quotas have adjusted market expectations, and continuous follow - up is needed. [19] Stainless Steel - **View**: Nickel - iron prices are firm, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates, with an outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][20] - **Logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the recovery of nickel - iron prices. The production in December decreased, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. Terminal demand is cautious, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in the off - season. [21] Tin - **View**: Supply - demand tension continues, and tin prices are bullish, with an outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][21] - **Logic**: Supply issues are the key factors. Although the supply situation in Wa State may improve, short - term supply in Indonesia is restricted, and the landslide in Congo (Kinshasa) has increased supply concerns. On the demand side, the global economy is expected to improve, and the demand for tin in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing. [22] Group 3: Market Index Monitoring - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2503.03, up 1.13%; the commodity 20 index is 2879.55, up 1.44%; the industrial product index is 2369.84, up 0.40%. [148] - **Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On January 26, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index is 2830.27, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a 5 - day increase of 1.31%, a 1 - month increase of 7.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.37%. [150]