Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View No clear core view presented in the given text. It mainly focuses on the daily data tracking of the aluminum industry chain. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - Price: $68 per dry ton, a decrease of $1 per dry ton compared to the previous period [3] - Spot price index on December 22: 2,754 yuan per ton, a decrease of 8 yuan per ton [3] - Futures inventory on December 22: 168,677 tons, a decrease of 11,122 tons [3] - Import profit and loss on December 22: 15 yuan per ton, a decrease of 8 yuan per ton [3] Electrolytic Aluminum - Domestic ore price on December 22: 509 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous period [4] - SMI 400 average price on December 22: 21,930 yuan per ton, an increase of 110 yuan per ton; the premium and discount was -170 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton [4] - Baotai A0012 price on December 22: 21,300 yuan per ton, unchanged [4] - Electrolytic aluminum smelting profit on December 22: 5,684 yuan per ton, an increase of 124 yuan per ton [47] - Futures inventory on December 22: 76,088 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [47] - Aluminum import profit and loss on December 22: -2,466 yuan per ton, a decrease of 318 yuan per ton [47] Aluminum Alloy - Scrap price difference of raw aluminum on December 22: 2,026 yuan per ton, an increase of 110 yuan per ton; the scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 2,779 yuan per ton, an increase of 110 yuan per ton [5] - Futures inventory on December 22: 70,161 tons, an increase of 28 tons [5] - Import profit and loss on December 22: -80 yuan per ton, an increase of 24 yuan per ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures significantly increased, and the supply-side positive factors were the main catalysts. The pulp market is expected to be bullish in the short term, with the bottom of the futures price rising, and the probability of breaking below the low on December 1st is not high [1]. - The sentiment in the oil market showed signs of stabilizing. Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production and demand expectations of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - The spot price of soybean meal remained stable, and the futures price rebounded from oversold levels. Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and US soybeans are expected to fluctuate [6][7]. - The corn and starch market lacked clear drivers and is expected to fluctuate [7]. - The overall supply of live pigs is abundant, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with a weakening supply pressure expected in the second half of 2026 [8]. - The rubber price continued to fluctuate, and the market lacked strong driving forces [10][11]. - The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market remained strong, and the market is expected to be bullish in the medium term [12]. - The cotton price continued to strengthen, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the long term, but the near-term contracts are restricted by hedging pressure [13]. - The sugar price is searching for a bottom, and it is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term due to the expected oversupply in the global sugar market [14][15]. - The double-offset paper market has no prominent contradictions and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17]. - The fundamentals of logs are expected to improve, and there is support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread and long opportunities in the far-month contracts [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures significantly increased, and the supply-side positive factors were the main catalysts [1]. - **Logic**: Positive factors include the rising US dollar price of broadleaf pulp, the supply reduction expectation caused by the shutdown of pulp mills, the potential production reduction of other softwood pulp mills, and the relatively high actual demand for pulp. Negative factors include the difficulty in cost transfer for downstream paper products, the seasonal decline in demand starting from January, and the abundant liquidity of softwood pulp in the spot market [1]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the short term, with the bottom of the futures price rising, and the probability of breaking below the low on December 1st is not high. The upper pressure level has shifted upward, with the 05 contract focusing on the pressure in the range of 5650 - 5750. The market is expected to fluctuate upward [1]. 3.2 Oils - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the oil market showed signs of stabilizing. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production and demand expectations of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - **Logic**: The US soybean market was bearish due to sufficient supply and concerns about Chinese demand. The South American soybean harvest is expected to be abundant. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased seasonally in December, and the probability of inventory reduction at the origin is high. The supply of domestic rapeseed is tight, but the supply is expected to increase in the future [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the technical support at the bottom [5]. 3.3 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of soybean meal remained stable, and the futures price rebounded from oversold levels [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean production outlook is optimistic, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly before the South American weather speculation. Domestically, the state reserve soybean auctions increased the market supply pressure, the seasonal de-stocking of soybean and soybean meal was slow, and the downstream consumption was weak [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. The market is expected to be bearish in the short term [7]. 3.4 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: The market lacked clear drivers and is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Logic**: The upstream farmers are reluctant to sell, and the downstream enterprises have established a certain safety inventory. The market is in a tight balance state, and there are no major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the old wheat auction and the rumor of state reserve release [7]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation [7]. 3.5 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The overall supply of live pigs is abundant, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of large pigs is increasing. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand increased during the Winter Solstice, and the inventory weight increased [8]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the short term, with the price expected to fluctuate in a weak range. The far-month contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [8]. 3.6 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The rubber price continued to fluctuate [10]. - **Logic**: The market lacked strong driving forces, and the geopolitical speculation was difficult to verify. The overseas supply increased seasonally, and the raw material price was firm, but there was a certain downward pressure. The downstream demand was weak, and the market sentiment was bearish [11]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and it is difficult to have a trending market [11]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market remained strong [12]. - **Logic**: The BR futures contract was favored by funds due to the marginal improvement in the butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price. The butadiene price fluctuated upward last week, and the inventory pressure was slightly relieved [12]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the medium term, but there is pressure at the upper level in the short term, and adjustment may be needed [12]. 3.8 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price continued to strengthen [13]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US cotton production decreased slightly, and the ICE cotton price had weak upward momentum. India's cotton production is expected to decrease for the second consecutive year, which may support the ICE cotton price. Domestically, the cotton supply and demand balance sheet is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory, but if the apparent demand continues to grow, the new crop may be in a tight balance, which will increase the cotton price valuation. The commercial inventory accumulation speed is slower than the listing speed, indicating good consumption. There is an expectation of a reduction in the planting area next year, and the slow registration speed of warehouse receipts is also positive for the cotton price [13]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the short term due to sentiment, but beware of callback risks. Bullish in the long term, and it is advisable to buy on dips [13]. 3.9 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is searching for a bottom [14]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sugar production in Brazil is expected to remain high, and the global sugar market is expected to be oversupplied in the new season. Domestically, the sugar production in November decreased year-on-year, and the supply will increase marginally with the concentrated start of the sugar cane crushing season [14][15]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the medium and long term due to the expected oversupply in the global sugar market [14][15]. 3.10 Double-Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The market has no prominent contradictions and is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **Logic**: The supply pressure still exists, and the paper mills have a strong desire to raise prices due to continuous losses. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is in a weak balance state [17]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the potential upward movement of the market if the paper mills shut down due to high inventory and continuous losses [17]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and there is support at the bottom [19]. - **Logic**: The port inventory continued to decline, and the spot price stabilized. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the overseas shipping volume is expected to decrease in December and January. The 03 contract has relatively strong gaming characteristics [19]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the reverse spread and long opportunities in the far-month contracts [19].

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Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and the Middle East are continuously disturbing the crude oil market, causing oil prices to fluctuate. Different raw materials have varying impacts on downstream chemical products. The market has entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds, with extreme price differences among some varieties, and there is a possibility of reverse fluctuations due to capital disturbances. The inventories of three major liquefied chemical products (EB, BZ, and EG) have all increased on a month - on - month basis [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Geopolitical factors are disturbing the crude oil market, including the US's intensified blockade of Venezuela, the key stage of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations, and potential Israeli attacks on Iran. Coal inventories are high due to lower - than - expected seasonal demand. The different performances of raw materials have implications for downstream chemical products [2]. - After the main contracts shifted to the 05 contracts, the market entered an expectation - trading phase dominated by funds. Polyolefins are considered for short - selling, while PX is favored for long - buying. The inventories of EB, BZ, and EG have all increased, with BZ inventory increasing by 5% month - on - month, and BZ and EB port inventories at a five - year high, and EG inventory approaching the five - year median [3]. 2. Performance of Each Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Venezuela, Russia - Ukraine, and other regions continue to disturb the market, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: Overseas refined oil inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the pressure of crude oil inventory is mainly reflected in floating storage. The supply - surplus situation persists. Geopolitical factors dominate short - term price fluctuations, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low [4][8]. - **Outlook**: The supply - surplus pattern continues, and geopolitical expectations are unstable. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate near the annual low in the short term [8]. Bitumen - **Viewpoint**: The situation between the US and Venezuela has heated up again, and bitumen futures prices have risen. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The situation between the US and Venezuela has driven up bitumen futures prices. If there is a substantial supply disruption, bitumen futures prices will be strong; otherwise, they may fall after rising. The pricing of bitumen futures has returned to Shandong spot prices, and the high valuation of bitumen is being revised downward. Bitumen is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and there is still great pressure on inventory accumulation [9]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of bitumen is overvalued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors have driven up the futures prices of high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is increasing production in December, and there is still a possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to a rebound in high - sulfur fuel oil. However, the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is currently suppressed by high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region. The three driving forces for high - sulfur fuel oil (Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery procurement, and Palestine - Israel conflict) are currently weak, and fuel oil demand is still weak [9]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. It has strong product attributes but faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. Domestically, the pressure on refined oil supply is increasing, which may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, resulting in an increase in supply and a decline in demand. Overseas, unexpected maintenance and unstable operation of some refineries have led to an unexpected decline in supply and an increase in valuation [11]. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and insufficient high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The situation in coastal and inland areas is relatively stalemate, and methanol is expected to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The inland market is weak, with high freight rates and general downstream follow - up. Although Iranian imports are expected to decrease in the long term, coastal port inventories are still at a historical high, and the arrival volume may be high in the short term. The trading logic in coastal areas is unclear, and the unloading rhythm of arriving ships may be a key variable [30]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [30]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Both supply and demand are weak, and the futures market fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: On December 22, 2025, the urea supply was affected by gas restrictions and maintenance, and the operating rate fell below 80%. However, due to the new production capacity put into operation throughout the year, the daily output was still above 190,000 tons, maintaining pressure on the market. On the demand side, there is still support from off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection, but the downstream's acceptance of the increased price is low, and the actual follow - up is cautious [31]. - **Outlook**: The short - term market is expected to fluctuate and may weaken. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories [31]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: There is still room for an increase in the load, and the spot circulation remains loose. - **Main Logic**: With the restart of some devices, the supply has increased again, and there are expectations of increased production from other devices. The overall spot circulation of ethylene glycol remains loose, and the inventory accumulation period is expected to last until February. The market sentiment needs time to recover, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [22][24]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate within a range in the short term, and the long - term inventory pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [24]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by sentiment, PX maintains a strong consolidation, and profits continue to expand. - **Main Logic**: The market is optimistic about the medium - and long - term pattern of PX, and bullish funds continue to bet. Geopolitical factors have driven up oil prices, and the resonance of cost and sentiment has led to the continued rise of PX and the expansion of PXN. Currently, the industrial chain profits are overly concentrated upstream, squeezing the cash flow of PTA and polyester. Attention should be paid to whether there will be unexpected production cuts or early holidays in the polyester industry [13][14]. - **Outlook**: PX is expected to consolidate strongly under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. PXN is expected to fluctuate within the range of [300, 380] US dollars per ton. The positive spread logic of PX remains [14]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: With cost support, the outlook is positive, and the processing margin on the futures market has been significantly repaired. - **Main Logic**: The upstream PX is still strong, providing cost support for PTA. The supply - demand pattern of PTA is still tight, and the export data in November was good, boosting market confidence. The BIS certification cancellation has a continuous positive impact, and it is expected that the export performance in December will still improve. PTA is expected to maintain a de - stocking pattern, and the seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February is less than in previous years. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [14][15]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate strongly following the cost, and the processing margin will operate within a range with limited expansion space. It is recommended to go long on the TA05 contract at low prices and take profit at around 5100. A positive spread strategy can be adopted for TA05 - 09 [15]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The upstream cost support has strengthened, but the cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials are rising, providing cost support for polyester short - fiber. However, the downstream's willingness to accept high prices is low, resulting in poor sales of polyester short - fiber. The cost cannot be fully passed on, and the profit is compressed due to the off - season expectation [25][26]. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will fluctuate with the upstream, and the support for the processing margin has increased. The position of going long on TA and shorting PF should be closed for profit [26]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The upstream raw material cost supports the price. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures have risen strongly, and polyester bottle - chip factories have mostly raised their prices. The trading volume in the polyester bottle - chip market is acceptable. In the short term, the price will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [27]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing margin has increased [27]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, and the expectation of PDH maintenance supports PL to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance still provides support. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the offer is stable, with only a few prices slightly adjusted downward. The downstream buying is cautious, and there is no significant change in trading. In the short term, the profit of powder is under pressure, and the decline in the operating rate has a negative impact [35]. - **Outlook**: PL is expected to fluctuate in the short term [35]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of maintenance supports PP to fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: The profit of PDH is under short - term pressure, and the valuation support of gas - based refineries has increased, with a strong expectation of increased maintenance. Geopolitical factors affect the short - term price of oil, and there is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is still great downward pressure in the next quarter. The downstream of PP is in the off - season, and the purchasing mentality is cautious. The current trading of maintenance is mainly focused on the expectation for January 2026, and the actual supply pressure is still large, with high inventory [34]. - **Outlook**: PP is expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The support of maintenance is limited, and plastic fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The oil price fluctuates, and geopolitical factors affect the short - term price. There is a phased support of geopolitical premium near the annual low, but there is great downward pressure in the next quarter. The fundamental support of plastic itself is still limited, with limited pressure on the profits of oil, coal, and ethane production, and a weaker expectation of supply reduction compared to PP. The upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will suppress the price. The overall demand for plastic is entering the off - season, and the sustainability of the short - term increase in downstream trading volume is questionable [33]. - **Outlook**: Plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [33]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: New export transactions and a strong aromatic atmosphere have led to the intraday rise of styrene. - **Main Logic**: Recently, styrene has been fluctuating weakly. The downstream ABS has shown negative feedback, with some enterprises reducing their loads. The liquidity of styrene has increased, and the basis and profit have weakened. In the short term, the support comes from the external pure benzene, while the upper limit is restricted by the pure benzene inventory pressure and the shift of styrene to inventory accumulation [20][21]. - **Outlook**: Styrene is about to shift to inventory accumulation, and the upstream has difficulty in reducing inventory and still faces great pressure. The upper limit is obvious, and export transactions will stimulate short - term rebounds [21]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is insufficient driving force, and the futures market fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, the supply - demand situation of PVC has improved marginally due to overseas capacity withdrawal and domestic marginal enterprise production cuts, but the over - supply expectation cannot be reversed. The domestic production may remain stable, the downstream operating rate is seasonally weak, the export orders are good this week, and the calcium carbide price is under pressure [37]. - **Outlook**: The de - stocking driven by production cuts will probably limit the rebound space of PVC. The over - supply situation cannot be reversed in the medium term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [37]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectation, caustic soda may fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the short - term emotional boost of the "anti - involution" policy on low - valuation varieties needs to be observed for implementation. At the micro level, although the short - term de - stocking in Shandong has occurred, if the alumina production is reduced and the upstream maintains a high operating rate, the supply - demand of caustic soda will still be in excess. The profit of marginal alumina devices is poor, the inventory of Weiquan is high, the demand for caustic soda will be boosted by the new alumina project in Guangxi in Q1 2026, the non - aluminum operating rate is weak, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is low [39][40]. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment is positive in the short term, and the upstream in Shandong is de - stocking. However, the supply - demand is under pressure in the long term, and the market may wait and see [40]. 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties have changed. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX decreased by 86 yuan per ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread of PP decreased by 15 yuan per ton [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties also show different changes. For example, the basis of bitumen decreased by 76 yuan per ton, and the warehouse receipt was 54,100 lots [43]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads have also changed. For example, the 1 - month spread of PP - 3MA decreased by 104 yuan per ton, and the 1 - month spread of TA - EG increased by 157 yuan per ton [45]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring There is no specific content provided in the given text for in - depth analysis of this part. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of the commodity index all showed different degrees of increase on December 22, 2025. The comprehensive index increased by 1.10%, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.34%, and the industrial products index increased by 0.79%. The energy index increased by 2.32% on the day, 1.47% in the past 5 days, decreased by 2.08% in the past month, and decreased by 10.72% since the beginning of the year [284][285].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment is generally positive. The lower - than - expected US CPI in November boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the Central Economic Work Conference in December has a positive tone, which is expected to improve domestic consumption. The raw material supply is tight and may spread to the smelting end, with a risk of supply contraction. The current supply - demand of basic metals is relatively loose, but the future is expected to be tight. In the short - to - medium term, supply concerns support prices, while high prices restrain consumption. Long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disturbances are expected to drive up the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin [3]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: The long - term processing fee for copper ore is settled, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. SMM reports that the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. The CSPT plans to reduce the copper ore production capacity load by over 10% in 2026. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on December 22 was at a discount to the contract. As of December 22, the copper inventory increased. The LME plans to set and implement position limits on key and related contracts from July 6, 2026. Macro factors and supply constraints support copper prices, but weak demand and inventory accumulation limit the upside. The outlook is for copper prices to be oscillatingly strong [9][10][11]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The over - supply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. On December 22, the spot prices in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts decreased. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply reduction is insufficient. The cost support is weak, and the warehouse receipts digestion faces pressure. The price is expected to oscillate [11][12][13]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The inventory has accumulated, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. On December 22, the average price of SMM AOO increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and bars changed. In November, China's un - wrought aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year. The "aluminum for copper" standard work has been launched, and the aluminum ingot premium for Japan in Q1 2026 has increased. The macro - environment is positive, the supply is tight in the long - term, and the short - term high prices suppress demand. Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillatingly strong in the short - term and may rise in the medium - term [14][15]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. On December 22, the prices of related products were stable or changed slightly. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project has started production, and the import of scrap aluminum in October increased. The cost support is strong, but the supply may be reduced due to policies, and the demand may weaken. The price is expected to be oscillatingly strong in the short - and medium - term [16]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The inventory trends at home and abroad are different, and zinc prices are oscillating at a high level. On December 22, the spot prices in different regions were at premiums to the contract. As of December 22, the zinc inventory increased. In November, China's zinc concentrate imports increased. The macro - environment is positive, the short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short - term and decline in the long - term [19][20]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined, and the rebound space of lead prices is limited. On December 22, the prices of related products changed slightly, and the inventory decreased. Since December, the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles has affected battery consumption, and the operating rate of some enterprises has weakened. The supply may increase as the maintenance of smelters ends, and the demand is weakening. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [21][22]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the nickel ore RKAB, and nickel prices have rebounded. On December 22, the LME and domestic nickel inventories changed. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to revise the HPM formula and reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target. The current supply is still under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. If the RKAB plan is implemented, the surplus expectation will decline. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [23][24]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the rebound of nickel prices, the stainless - steel futures price has recovered. On December 22, the price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia plans to reduce the nickel ore production target. The cost has some support, the production may decline in December, and the inventory may accumulate. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [26][27]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply concerns and low inventory levels make tin prices oscillatingly strong. On December 22, the warehouse receipts and positions of tin increased, and the spot price rose. The supply from Myanmar has recovered, but the supply in Indonesia may be restricted in Q1 2026, and African supply is limited. The demand is expected to increase due to the economic environment and industry development. Tin prices are expected to be oscillatingly strong [27][28]. Group 4: Market Monitoring - On December 22, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of the CITICS Futures commodity index increased by 1.10%, 1.34%, and 0.79% respectively. The PPI commodity index increased by 0.63%. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.85%. The daily, 5 - day, 1 - month, and year - to - date growth rates of the non - ferrous metal index were +0.85%, +2.42%, +5.61%, and +12.36% respectively [152][154].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - Supply disruption concerns are intensifying, and new energy metals remain strong. In the short - to - medium term, polysilicon and lithium carbonate will alternately lead the rise of new energy metals. In the long - term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, with a possible increase in the price level. The lithium ore production capacity is still rising, but demand expectations are also growing, and the expected surplus in supply - demand is narrowing. The annual supply - demand inflection point for lithium carbonate may occur earlier. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **View**: Supply - demand remains weak, and silicon prices show an oscillatory trend. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory". [6] - **Information Analysis**: As of December 22, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated slightly. The latest domestic inventory decreased by 0.5% month - on - month. As of November 2025, the monthly output of domestic industrial silicon decreased by 11.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year. In November, industrial silicon exports increased by 21.8% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 30.43% month - on - month but decreased by 38.3% year - on - year. [6] - **Main Logic**: In terms of the fundamentals, the production of industrial silicon decreased in December. The demand from polysilicon, organic silicon was weak, and the demand boost from aluminum alloy was limited. Although the industry inventory decreased recently, there is still some pressure. Overall, the supply pressure was relieved to some extent, but the downstream demand weakened simultaneously, and the inventory continued to accumulate in December, with the fundamentals remaining weak. [6] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of industrial silicon are weak, but the coal price has recovered, and market sentiment fluctuates. It is believed that the price of industrial silicon will show an oscillatory trend. [7] Polysilicon - **View**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory and slightly bullish". [7] - **Information Analysis**: As of the week of December 22, the average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock was stable week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the GZFE remained unchanged. In November, China's polysilicon exports decreased by 18% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 62% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the newly installed domestic photovoltaic capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. A polysilicon platform company was registered on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan. The GZFE added new registered brands and adjusted the minimum order quantity for some polysilicon futures contracts. [7][8] - **Main Logic**: With the establishment of the polysilicon platform company, the expectation of state - reserve purchase has heated up again, and prices continue to be highly volatile. In the supply side, production in the southwest region decreased during the dry season, and the impact of anti - involution policies on supply needs to be monitored. In the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first five months was high but overdrew the demand in the second half of the year. The demand for polysilicon has gradually weakened since November. Although the fundamentals are weak, the anti - involution policy expectation provides strong price support at the bottom. [10] - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts polysilicon prices. With the establishment of the platform company, market sentiment has improved, and the price of polysilicon may show an oscillatory and slightly bullish trend in the short term. [11] Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Demand remains strong, and lithium prices continue to rise. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory and slightly bullish". [11] - **Information Analysis**: On December 22, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.68%, and the total open interest increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, as did the average price of spodumene concentrate index. The number of warehouse receipts increased. The GZFE made adjustments to lithium carbonate futures delivery warehouses, and the total warehouse capacity increased by 7,000 tons. [11][12] - **Main Logic**: Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the long - term demand expectation is also strong. Market trading focuses on the resumption time of Jiaxiawo Mine and the off - season demand. The resumption expectation has been postponed, which is a major positive factor. There are differences in the market's expectation of January demand, and the social inventory decline has slowed down. In the short term, there are few negative factors, and the market sentiment is optimistic. However, attention should be paid to the possible emotional fluctuations caused by the increase in warehouse capacity. [12] - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be mainly oscillatory and slightly bullish. [12] 2.行情监测 - Not provided with specific content in the text. 3.中信期货商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: - The commodity 20 index was 2,634.42, up 1.34%. - The industrial product index was 2,226.50, up 0.79%. - The PPI commodity index was 1,379.81, up 0.63%. [54] - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On December 22, 2025, the index was 493.12, with a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 6.64%, a 1 - month increase of 13.17%, and a year - to - date increase of 19.57%. [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The policy tone remains positive, with the "15th Five - Year Plan" draft planning major projects. In the current off - season, supply and demand are both weak. The steel rebar fundamentals are still resilient, while hot - rolled coils face inventory pressure. Supported by winter storage and cost, the futures market continues to rebound. The iron ore futures perform strongly, and the valuation of coking coal and coke continues to recover due to supply disturbances. The glass - soda ash prices are suppressed by the oversupply situation. Overall, there is a chance of a low - level rebound in the futures market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased slightly, and port inventories are accumulating. Iron water production continues to decline, weakening the rigid demand. Steel mills' restocking is slow, and there is strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][7] - Scrap steel: The supply of scrap steel has decreased, and demand remains stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is good, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still provides support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of further spot price cuts is low. As winter storage by coke and steel enterprises begins, the spot price will be more strongly supported, and the futures valuation still has room for repair, expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [2][11] - Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally. The futures valuation has room for repair, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [2][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market supply and demand of manganese silicon remain loose, and the upstream inventory pressure is large. The upward movement of the futures price may face selling pressure, and the upside space is limited. In the medium term, it will oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][15] - Ferrosilicon: The high cost supports the price bottom. Currently, the upstream supply pressure is not large, but in the off - season of terminal demand, the market supply and demand are both weak. The upside space of the futures price is not overly optimistic, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation [2][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply and demand are in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress the price, expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][12] - Soda ash: Recently, the coal price recovery has strengthened the cost support. However, the overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][15] 3.5 Specific Analysis of Each Variety - Steel: The cost support is strong, and the futures market continues to rebound. The spot market trading is average. Steel production is decreasing, but rebar production has stabilized and rebounded. Demand is weak in the off - season but still has support. Steel inventories are decreasing, but the current inventory level is still high year - on - year, and demand may weaken. The upside space of the futures market is limited [6] - Iron ore: The spot price is weakly oscillating. Overseas shipments have decreased, arrivals have declined, and iron water production has dropped significantly. Port inventories are accumulating, and steel mills' restocking demand is slow to release. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [7] - Scrap steel: The supply is at a low level, and demand is stable. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price is expected to oscillate [9] - Coke: The third round of price cuts has been implemented, and coking enterprises' profits have turned negative. The production enthusiasm is okay, but some are restricted by environmental protection. Steel mills' inventories are increasing, and the overall market is stabilizing. The futures valuation has room for repair and is expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [11] - Coking coal: Affected by the earthquake, the market sentiment is high. Domestic supply is at a low level, and imports are high. The downstream has started to restock, and the futures valuation has room for repair [12] - Glass: The spot price is still weak, and the futures market is oscillating. The policy is positive, but the supply may decline in the long term and is difficult to have a large - scale cold - repair in the short term. The demand is weak, and middle - stream inventories are large, suppressing the valuation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price will oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [12] - Soda ash: The supply has slightly decreased, and demand is expected to weaken. The overall supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, and the market is at the bottom of the cycle. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [13][15] - Manganese silicon: The futures price is strongly oscillating, and the spot price has slightly increased. The cost has slightly loosened, demand is weak, and supply is difficult to significantly reduce inventory. The upside space of the futures price is limited, and it will oscillate at a low level in the medium term [15] - Ferrosilicon: The futures market is oscillating, and the spot price has little change. The cost is high, demand is weak, supply pressure has been alleviated, and the supply - demand relationship is balanced. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [16] 3.6 Index Information - On December 22, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities, the specialty index (Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index) all increased, with increases of 1.10%, 1.34% and 0.79% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.30% on the day, 2.44% in the past 5 days, - 0.06% in the past month, and - 6.26% since the beginning of the year [104][106]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - environment in 2026 continues to warm up. The combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair change" in the US is conducive to Fed easing, and the quality of January's economic data is expected to return to normal. The "broad fiscal + broad monetary" policy in the US will promote economic prosperity. The ECB maintained interest rates in December and raised GDP forecasts for this year and next, while Japan's interest rate hike was in line with expectations and not a radical tightening, with an upward adjustment of the 2025 GDP growth forecast and maintaining the 2026 forecast [6]. - In November domestically, social retail sales year - on - year was 1.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. Commodity retail continued to weaken, while service consumption improved. Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate continued to decline, but exports were strong [6]. - In asset allocation, the macro - environment is favorable for the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors. For precious metals, the logic for gold's rise is clear and it has a high safety margin, while silver's volatility risk increases after a sharp rise. For non - ferrous metals, there are opportunities to buy on dips for commodities with more supply disruptions like copper, aluminum, and tin, and attention should be paid to lithium carbonate with good supply - demand performance. The domestic equity sector should be defensive at the end of the year and during the policy window period [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures was at 4564.8 with a daily increase of 0.83%, weekly increase of 0.83%, monthly increase of 2.07%, quarterly decrease of 1.15%, and an annual increase of 16.42%. The Shanghai 50 futures was at 3018.4 with a daily increase of 0.40%, weekly increase of 0.40%, monthly increase of 2.01%, quarterly increase of 0.98%, and an annual increase of 12.71%. The CSI 500 futures was at 7123.2 with a daily increase of 0.96%, weekly increase of 0.96%, monthly increase of 4.74%, quarterly decrease of 2.29%, and an annual increase of 25.12%. The CSI 1000 futures was at 7203.6 with a daily increase of 0.87%, weekly increase of 0.87%, monthly increase of 2.53%, quarterly decrease of 2.74%, and an annual increase of 23.17% [2]. - **Bond Futures**: The 2 - year bond futures was at 102.464 with a daily decrease of 0.03%, weekly decrease of 0.03%, monthly increase of 0.08%, quarterly increase of 0.17%, and an annual decrease of 0.50%. The 5 - year bond futures was at 105.86 with a daily decrease of 0.10%, weekly decrease of 0.10%, monthly increase of 0.11%, quarterly increase of 0.32%, and an annual decrease of 0.64%. The 10 - year bond futures was at 107.98 with a daily decrease of 0.16%, weekly decrease of 0.16%, monthly increase of 0.04%, quarterly increase of 0.42%, and an annual decrease of 0.87%. The 30 - year bond futures was at 111.98 with a daily decrease of 0.60%, weekly decrease of 0.60%, monthly decrease of 2.19%, quarterly decrease of 1.40%, and an annual decrease of 5.76% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.7125 with no daily or weekly change, a monthly decrease of 0.73%, quarterly increase of 0.91%, and an annual decrease of 9.01%. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was at 1.1708, with 0 pips change daily and weekly, 107 pips increase monthly, 26 pips decrease quarterly, and 1355 pips increase annually. The US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate was at 157.729, with 0 pips daily change, no weekly change, 1.00% monthly increase, 6.63% quarterly increase, and 0.34% annual increase [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.44 with no daily or weekly change, a 6 - bp monthly decrease, 1 - bp quarterly decrease, and 31 - bp annual decrease. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.83 with a 0.5 - bp daily decrease, no weekly change, 1 - bp monthly decrease, 3 - bp quarterly decrease, and 0.2 - bp annual increase. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.16 with a 4 - bp daily increase, no weekly change, 0.03 - bp monthly increase, no quarterly change, and 39 - bp annual decrease [2]. 3.2 Overseas Commodity Market - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 56.54 with a daily increase of 1.14%, weekly decrease of 1.72%, monthly decrease of 3.32%, quarterly decrease of 9.43%, and an annual decrease of 21.33. ICE Brent crude oil was at 60.12 with a daily increase of 1.20%, weekly decrease of 1.80%, monthly decrease of 3.53%, quarterly decrease of 9.12%, and an annual decrease of 19.664. NYMEX natural gas was at 4.026 with a daily increase of 2.05%, weekly decrease of 1.83%, monthly decrease of 17.19%, quarterly increase of 20.86%, and an annual increase of 10.82% [2]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was at 4368.7 with a daily increase of 0.11%, weekly increase of 0.90%, monthly increase of 2.64%, quarterly increase of 12.38%, and an annual increase of 65.52%. COMEX silver was at 67.395 with a daily increase of 2.97%, weekly increase of 8.55%, monthly increase of 18.06%, quarterly increase of 43.88%, and an annual increase of 130.109 [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, etc. had different price changes. For example, LME copper had a certain increase in some periods, LME aluminum was at 2945 with a daily increase of 0.99%, weekly increase of 2.43%, monthly increase of 2.79%, quarterly increase of 9.60%, and an annual increase of 15.38% [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans were at 1049 with a daily decrease of 0.24%, weekly decrease of 2.53%, monthly decrease of 7.76%, quarterly increase of 4.82%, and an annual increase of 3.86%. CBOT corn was at 443.25 with a daily decrease of 0.17%, weekly increase of 0.62%, monthly decrease of 1.01%, quarterly increase of 6.55%, and an annual decrease of 3.38% [2]. 3.3 Domestic Commodity Market - **Shipping**: The container shipping European line was at 1871.8 with a daily increase of 8.84%, weekly increase of 8.84%, monthly increase of 27.17%, quarterly increase of 13.94%, and an annual decrease of 17.07% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold was at 1000.86 with a daily increase of 2.14%, weekly increase of 2.14%, monthly increase of 4.92%, quarterly increase of 14.15%, and an annual increase of 62.06%. Silver was at 16210 with a daily increase of 5.42%, weekly increase of 5.42%, monthly increase of 27.37%, quarterly increase of 48.06%, and an annual increase of 117.00% [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was at 94320 with a daily increase of 1.22%, weekly increase of 1.22%, monthly increase of 7.92%, quarterly increase of 13.57%, and an annual increase of 27.86%. Aluminum, zinc, and other non - ferrous metals also had their own price change trends [3]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as raw materials like iron ore, coke, and coking coal, had different price fluctuations. For example, rebar was at 3126 with a daily increase of 0.22%, weekly increase of 0.22%, monthly increase of 0.29%, quarterly decrease of 0.06%, and an annual decrease of 5.53% [3]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, and other energy and chemical products had various price changes. For example, crude oil was at 437.9 with a daily increase of 2.65%, weekly increase of 2.65%, monthly decrease of 3.78%, quarterly decrease of 8.73%, and an annual decrease of 21.79% [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Grains, oils, and livestock products such as soybeans, corn, and hogs had their own price trends. For example, hogs were at 11345 with a daily increase of 0.18%, weekly increase of 0.18%, monthly increase of 0.84%, quarterly decrease of 9.09%, and an annual decrease of 11.37% [3]. 3.4 Sector - by - Sector Short - term Judgments - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options are expected to be volatile, and bond futures are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping European line is expected to be volatile [7]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Some varieties like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals Sector**: Some varieties like PX and PTA are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to decline in a volatile manner, and most are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Some varieties like cotton are expected to be volatile, while others such as hogs and sugar are expected to decline in a volatile manner [9].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/23 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Dec's LPR release shows both the 5-year and 1-year rates remain unchanged. ...

T 自 限公司 2025年12月19日, PX/PTA出现了明显的增仓上涨,带领聚酯链全线飘红,主力合约涨幅超3%。 上涨原因 1、预期先行于吸实。市场对明年PX原料紧缺的顶膜胶为一致，2026年PI-PTA进入投产真空期，第二季度PA的检修高雄期进一步加剧了市场对上半年的原料紧缺预期，盘面价他也给了资金层 面比较明显的正反馈。 基本自信元 预期先行,上强下弱,利润博弈拉开序幕 中信期货研究所 能源化工团队 发射可动态 风 应提示 上行风险：宏观政策利好；能源价格大涨，需求超预期，PTA协同减产落实：下行风险：宏观政策利空，需求不及预期 图表 1: PXN 图表 2:聚酯长丝加权加工费 美元/吨 元/吨 · 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 2022 - 2021 2023 3500 700 600 3000 500 2500 400 300 2000 200 1500 2025/12/19 | | | 1000 | V | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01/02 02/07 03/14 04/19 05/26 07/01 08/06 ...