Report Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, for different financial derivatives, the outlooks are as follows: - **Stock Index Futures**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [7] - **Stock Index Options**: Oscillating [8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Oscillating [8] Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The technology sector has a short - term advantage. Short - term adjustments are mainly due to capital reallocation, while the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the possibility of configuring IM long positions, as technology stocks have a comparative advantage [1][7] - **Stock Index Options**: Trading is driven by intraday reversals. It is recommended to use covered strategies and closely monitor volatility changes. When volatility rises abnormally, the selling side of options can temporarily exit the market [2][8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The impact of the stock - bond seesaw effect is weakening. In the short term, the central bank's attitude towards the capital market is supportive for the short - end, while the long - end yield of bonds is still affected by risk appetite and policy expectations. Short - term attention can be paid to long - end arbitrage opportunities and the opportunity for the yield curve to steepen [3][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The market first rose and then declined. The STAR Market once soared, and the technology sector continued to attract capital. However, the loss - making effect in the afternoon increased, and value stocks led the decline [1][7] - **Key Phenomena**: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, commodities were generally weak, and the slightly hawkish stance boosted the US dollar, putting pressure on commodities and value stocks. Brokerages and stock - trading software were sluggish, and funds avoided areas with concentrated chips. The proportion of stocks outperforming the Wind All - A Index decreased, indicating that funds were flowing into relatively crowded areas, causing downward pressure on weak stocks [1][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold IM [7] Stock Index Options - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume in the options market was 21.04 billion yuan, a 62.60% increase from the previous trading day, driven by intraday reversals [2][7] - **Market Characteristics**: The positive delta exposure of sellers decreased, and there were signs of a slight rebound in the skewness index and a significant increase in the ratio PCR. The implied volatility of some products decreased significantly at the end of the session, presumably due to the impact of intraday put - buying profit - taking [2][8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Use covered strategies [8] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, with a larger increase at the long - end [3][8] - **Capital Situation**: The central bank's net injection of 195 billion yuan did not ease the tight capital situation in the inter - bank market. The DR001 weighted average interest rate rose above 1.5%, which was negative for the short - end of the bond market. The decline in the equity market had limited impact on boosting the bond market sentiment, and the long - end yield rose more [3][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a cautiously oscillating trend strategy. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, focus on long - end arbitrage opportunities. For curve strategies, pay attention to the opportunity for the yield curve to steepen [9] 2. Economic Calendar - The report provides the economic data of different regions from September 15 to September 19, 2025, including China's social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, the eurozone's economic sentiment index, the US retail sales, import price index, federal funds rate, and Japan's CPI [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, and the dot - plot median shows that there is still room for a 50bp interest - rate cut within the year. The Bank of England maintained its policy interest rate unchanged in September and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening, warning of the risk of a wage - price spiral [11] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes data monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the given text [12][16][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating on the strong side" [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the US interest rate cut has been implemented and the previous trading logic of interest rate cuts has cooled down, the current furnace charge end of the black building materials sector still has strong demand support, so negative feedback is still difficult to initiate. With the release of post - holiday replenishment demand and the expectation of favorable domestic and foreign policies, the prices of some varieties in the sector are expected to strengthen steadily [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Situation - After the US interest rate cut of 25BP was implemented on the 18th, the policy cooled down briefly, leading to a slight decline in the day - session futures prices. At night, with the hot metal output remaining above 2.4 million tons, the furnace charge was further supported, and the iron ore price was relatively resistant to decline. In the later period, with the peak - season atmosphere and downstream replenishment before the National Day, the black building materials sector is expected to remain stable, and the prices of sector varieties are expected to be supported [2]. 2. Element - Based Analysis Iron Element - The demand for iron ore has recovered to a high level, and the in - plant inventory is low. There is an expectation of pre - holiday replenishment in the middle and late ten - days. The fundamentals of iron ore are still healthy, but the overall peak - season demand for steel needs further verification, which may limit the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term. The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent, and the downstream inventory available days are at a low level. There is still an expectation of pre - holiday replenishment, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - As the National Day approaches, steel mills have started to replenish raw materials. The fundamental contradictions are not significant. With the support of stable and rebounding coal prices, the cost support is relatively strong. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term. Currently, coal mines are cautious in production under over - speed checks, and the supply has limited room for further increase. With the pre - National Day replenishment of the middle and lower reaches, the inventory is accelerating the transfer from top to bottom. The price is expected to fluctuate on the strong side in the short term [3]. Alloys - The peak - season expectation supports the manganese - silicon futures price, but the market supply - demand expectation is relatively pessimistic, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season. The downward space of the silicon - iron futures price during the peak season may be limited, but the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron will tend to be loose, and the price will still face downward pressure after the peak season [3]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of fluctuations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline [12]. Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3. Individual Variety Analysis Steel - The overall spot market trading volume of steel is weak. The production of some regional steel mills has decreased, and the demand for rebar has recovered. The profit of hot - rolled coils is better than that of rebar, and the inventory has increased. The peak - season demand for steel has recovered less than expected, and the inventory is at a moderately high level. The fundamentals of rebar are better than those of hot - rolled coils. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume of iron ore has decreased. The supply is stable, and the demand has increased slightly. The overall inventory is stable. The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the in - plant inventory has increased, indicating pre - holiday replenishment. The fundamentals are healthy, but the peak - season demand for steel needs further verification, which limits the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term [8]. Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased. The factory inventory has increased slightly, and the available days of inventory are at a low level. The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally, and it may follow the finished - product steel to face pressure [10]. Coke - There are both voices of price increase and decrease in the market. The overall supply remains at a high level. The demand is supported by rigid demand, and the upstream inventory has decreased slightly. As the National Day approaches, steel mills have started to replenish raw materials. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [11]. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal has increased slightly, and the supply has limited room for further increase. The downstream has started pre - holiday replenishment, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected that the price will fluctuate on the strong side in the short term [11]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of fluctuations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price is expected to decline [12]. Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. Manganese Silicon - The peak - season expectation supports the futures price, but the market supply - demand expectation is relatively pessimistic, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [16]. Silicon Iron - The downward space of the silicon - iron futures price during the peak season may be limited, but the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron will tend to be loose, and the price will still face downward pressure after the peak season [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical futures market as a whole continues to consolidate in a volatile pattern. The supply pressure in the crude oil market persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks. The prices of various energy and chemical products show different trends, with some being volatile, some weakly volatile, and some expected to experience short - term fluctuations [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic of Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks are the focus. The freight rate of VLCC from the Middle East to Asia has reached a two - and - a - half - year high. The持仓 of Brent crude oil has reached a record high, indicating a large divergence between long and short positions. The disruption of Ukraine to Russia's oil product exports remains unresolved [2][10]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price fluctuates below 3500 yuan/ton. Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalates. The supply tension problem has been significantly alleviated, and the pricing power of asphalt futures prices is expected to return to Shandong. The hidden inventory in South China is a concern [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price shows a weak and volatile trend. Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalates. The export of Russian fuel oil reaches a record high, and the demand expectation deteriorates [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline [13]. - **PX**: The cost support is insufficient, and the processing fee is under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand from downstream PTA is expected to weaken [14]. - **PTA**: New device commissioning is postponed, and maintenance is implemented, but the market boost effect is limited. The processing fee is expected to be repaired, and attention should be paid to the support around 4600 yuan/ton [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price falls intraday due to the realization of macro - benefits and the decline in commodity sentiment. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change in crude oil prices and the subsequent import volume of pure benzene [14][15][16]. - **Styrene**: The price resumes falling due to the decline in commodity sentiment. The inventory pressure is large in September - October, and the cost - end pure benzene inventory accumulation pressure may drag down the valuation. There may be a small rebound in the short term, but the amplitude is limited by inventory [16][17]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The market sentiment is under pressure due to the expectation of weakening supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to the support around 4200 yuan/ton [17][18][19]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The inventory is slightly reduced, and the processing fee is firm. The supply and demand pattern is relatively healthy, and the absolute value follows the raw material fluctuations and fluctuates in the short term [20][21][22]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The driving force is limited, and it follows passively. The price follows the upstream fluctuations, and the absolute value follows the raw material fluctuations and fluctuates [22][24]. - **Methanol**: The port trading volume increases slightly, and the futures price fluctuates and declines. The port inventory pressure is large, and the inland inventory pressure is limited. There may be low - buying opportunities from September to October [25]. - **Urea**: Under the condition of loose supply and demand, the downstream conducts price negotiations, and the futures price fluctuates and consolidates in the short term [25]. - **LLDPE (Plastic)**: The maintenance rate declines, and there is still restocking demand before the festival. The price fluctuates. The macro - support weakens, the oil price fluctuates weakly, and the demand may have certain support [28]. - **PP**: The spot price is at a low level, and there is still restocking demand before the festival. The price fluctuates and declines. The supply side still has an increasing trend, and the inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches exists [29][30]. - **PL**: It fluctuates following PP, and the price fluctuates and declines in the short term [30]. - **PVC**: It operates in a volatile manner with weak reality and strong expectation. The macro - sentiment is warm, but the fundamental pressure is large, and the cost moves up slightly [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price decline space is limited, and the futures price fluctuates. The fundamental pressure gradually appears, but the restocking before the National Day may provide certain support [33]. 3.2 Monitoring of Energy and Chemical Indicators - **Inter - period Spread**: Different energy and chemical products show different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.5 yuan/ton with a change of 0.01 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 0 yuan with a change of - 8 yuan/ton [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt quantities of various products also vary. For example, the basis of asphalt is 93 yuan/ton with a change of 18 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 65010 [37]. - **Inter - product Spread**: The inter - product spreads of different energy and chemical products have different values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 112 yuan/ton with a change of 34 yuan/ton [39]. 3.3 Commodity Index - On September 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities is 2224.80, down 0.94%; the commodity 20 index is 2489.53, down 1.04%; the industrial products index is 2246.67, down 1.06%. The energy index on September 18, 2025, has a daily decline of 1.27%, a 5 - day increase of 2.98%, a 1 - month increase of 0.64%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.86% [281][283].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [5] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating Weakly [7] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [9] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating Strongly [14] - Sugar: Oscillating [16] - Pulp: Oscillating [17] - Offset Paper: Oscillating [18] - Logs: Oscillating [20] 2. Report's Core View - Most agricultural products showed a downward trend on September 19, 2025. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as policies, weather, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions. The market trends of different products vary, including oscillations, oscillations with an upward or downward bias [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends of Different Varieties - **Oils and Fats**: Concerns about the US biodiesel policy are rising, increasing the downward pressure on oil prices. The market is affected by factors such as US soybean conditions, palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the inventory situation in China. It is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Protein Meal**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the double - meal followed the market decline. Internationally, factors such as US soybean conditions, South American sowing progress, and CFTC positions affect the market. Domestically, there are issues of inventory accumulation and demand changes. It is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: The support at 2150 is strong, and the short - term market may fluctuate. The current price is stable with a slight downward trend, and the supply and demand situation is affected by new grain listing and other factors. It is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8]. - **Live Pigs**: Before the festival, inventory is continuously reduced, and the supply and demand of live pigs are loose. In the short term, supply is abundant, and in the long term, the impact of capacity - reduction policies needs to be observed. It is expected to oscillate [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Due to negative sentiment, the rubber price dropped significantly. However, the fundamentals are still relatively strong in the short term. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions during the callback in September, and the short - term trend is expected to oscillate strongly [10][12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The weakening of natural rubber dragged down synthetic rubber. The price is in the range of 11300 - 12300, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14]. - **Cotton**: After the interest rate cut expectation was fulfilled, Zhengzhou cotton declined under the bearish commodity atmosphere. In the short term, the callback space is limited, and the downward pressure will increase after the large - scale listing of new cotton. It is expected to oscillate strongly [14]. - **Sugar**: Due to the overall bearish commodity atmosphere, the sugar price declined. In the long term, the new season's supply is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly; in the short term, it will oscillate downward to find support [16]. - **Pulp**: There is no obvious driving force for a breakthrough, and it maintains an oscillating trend. The current supply - demand situation is affected by factors such as the effectiveness of price increases in the US dollar market and seasonal demand. It is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Offset Paper**: The trading volume is low, and it runs in a narrow - range oscillation. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and it is recommended to operate in the range of 4000 - 4500. It is expected to oscillate [18]. - **Logs**: With the adjustment of commodities, logs oscillate weakly. The current market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations. It is expected that the price may stop falling and stabilize in September [20]. 3.2 Commodity Index Information - On September 18, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index of the commodity index all declined, with declines of 0.94%, 1.04%, and 1.06% respectively. The agricultural product index declined by 0.42% on that day, with a 5 - day decline of 1.16%, a 1 - month decline of 2.06%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.24% [178][180].

Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's expected interest rate cut, the US dollar rebounded and demand was weak, causing the non - ferrous metals to give back recent gains. In the medium and short term, the weak US dollar and supply disruptions support prices, while weak terminal demand expectations limit the upside. It is expected that basic metals will generally maintain a pattern of oscillating upward. In the long term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support the prices of basic metals [2]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices had a phased decline. In the medium term, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. - **Analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025. Freeport - McMoRan's Indonesian mine suspended operations. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The spot premium of electrolytic copper rebounded, and copper inventories increased. The "770 - Document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the market's optimistic sentiment declined after the interest rate cut. On the supply side, mine supply disruptions increased, and recycled copper production cuts were expected. On the demand side, the peak season had arrived, but inventory reduction was not obvious. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and with increased supply disruptions and a low - level US dollar index, copper is expected to show an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern [8][9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The weak fundamentals have not improved significantly, and alumina prices are oscillating weakly. - **Analysis**: Alumina spot prices declined in multiple regions on September 18. In August 2025, China's alumina exports increased year - on - year, and aluminum bauxite imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Alumina warehouse receipts decreased. - **Logic**: Macro sentiment interfered with the market. Fundamentally, refinery profits shrank, but raw materials were relatively abundant. Operating capacity continued to reach new highs, and the market was in an oversupply situation. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly weaker, with prices under pressure. Consider short - selling on rallies or waiting and watching, and also pay attention to the 10 - 1, 2 - 3 reverse arbitrage opportunities [10][12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: After the interest rate cut, aluminum prices declined. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and inventories of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods changed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Relevant policies were issued, and a company's new project is expected to be put into production in 2026. - **Logic**: In the short term, the interest rate cut was in line with expectations, and risk - aversion sentiment increased. On the supply side, replacement production capacity was put into operation, and on the demand side, the peak season was approaching, but the inventory reduction inflection point was not clear. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to be range - bound. In the medium term, supply growth is limited, and demand remains resilient, with the price center expected to rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: As the first warehouse receipt registration approaches, the market is oscillating. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the price of Baotai ADC12 decreased, and the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The EU may impose a tax on scrap metal exports, and most die - casting enterprises plan to have holidays in October. - **Logic**: On the cost side, scrap aluminum supply was tight, providing cost support. On the supply side, the start - up rate increased marginally, and on the demand side, there was marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance remains to be seen. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are oscillating at a low level. In the future, there is room for an increase, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be considered [14][15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, zinc prices declined with the non - ferrous metals. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the spot premium of zinc in different regions changed, and SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The CZSPT released the import zinc concentrate processing fee guidance for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the interest rate cut was in line with expectations, and the non - ferrous metals sector declined. On the supply side, zinc ore supply was loose, and smelters' profitability was good. On the demand side, it was in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand expectations were average. - **Outlook**: In September, zinc ingot production will remain high, and inventories may continue to accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to be oscillating [16][17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The supply of recycled lead decreased, and lead prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead increased. SMM's lead ingot price increased, and the spot premium decreased. Lead ingot social inventories increased slightly, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipts decreased. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot discount and the price difference between primary and recycled lead increased, and warehouse receipts decreased. On the supply side, recycled lead production decreased, and on the demand side, it was in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and the lead - acid battery start - up rate was high. - **Outlook**: The macro - environment is positive. Lead demand is stable, and supply may tighten slightly. The supply - demand gap may continue, and lead prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [17][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: LME nickel inventories increased significantly, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. - **Analysis**: On September 18, LME nickel inventories decreased slightly, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of high - nickel pig iron was firm, and relevant company events had little impact on production. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Nickel supply is in excess, and inventories are accumulating. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices are oscillating widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and watch [20][22]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, stainless steel is operating weakly. - **Analysis**: Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased, the spot premium of stainless steel changed, and the average price of high - nickel pig iron increased. - **Logic**: The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are stable. Stainless steel production increased in August, and inventory reduction was limited. - **Outlook**: Be vigilant about the possibility of production cuts by steel mills. Stainless steel is expected to be range - bound in the short term [24]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Shanghai tin inventories have been declining continuously, and tin prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On September 18, LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the spot price of tin decreased. - **Logic**: The supply side is the core concern. The复产 of the Wa State mine is slow, and African tin production is unstable. Supply is tight, but terminal demand is weakening, and inventories are rising. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating due to tight supply at the mine end [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. The process of Chinese residents moving their deposits indicates an overall increase in risk appetite. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major asset classes, such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - In the September Fed meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, reducing the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%. This is the first interest rate cut this year. The statement noted a slowdown in US employment growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and an increase in employment downside risks. The median interest rate forecast shows that the Fed expects three interest rate cuts this year and one more next year [8]. Domestic Macro - In China, the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity need to be observed. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is stable, supporting the physical demand of infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter. However, there is a risk that more special bond funds may be used for debt resolution rather than infrastructure. With the uncertain implementation of the 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments, the demand for physical consumption of commodities may be postponed to the end of the fourth quarter. Investors in financial assets are recommended to focus on the process of residents moving their deposits and inflation changes [8]. Asset Views - For global major asset classes, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is favorable for risk assets. In China, as residents are moving their deposits, the risk preference is rising. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. The allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the fourth - quarter allocation opportunities can be considered [8]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences, and the short - term judgment is sideways due to the decline of incremental funds. For stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy, and the short - term judgment is sideways considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity. For treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the short - term judgment is sideways with concerns about unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [9]. Precious Metals - With the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increasing risk of the Fed's independence, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise sideways, while paying attention to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [9]. Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in the third quarter fades and loading is under pressure, there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. Black Building Materials - For steel, the macro - environment is favorable, but there are still real - world pressures. The short - term judgment is sideways, paying attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. For iron ore, with a slight increase in pig iron production, the price fluctuates sideways, and factors such as overseas mine production and shipping, domestic pig iron production, weather, and port inventory need to be monitored. For coke, with strong cost support, the price fluctuates at a high level, and factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment should be noted. For coking coal, with the rebound of spot coal prices and a slight increase in supply, the short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. For other products like silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash, the short - term judgments are all sideways, each with its own key points of concern [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For copper, due to supply disruptions in copper mines, the price fluctuates upward sideways, and factors such as supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, and Fed policy need to be considered. For aluminum, zinc, and other metals, most of them have inventory accumulation issues, and the short - term judgments are sideways, with different risk and concern factors for each. For lead, with a decline in secondary lead supply, the price fluctuates upward sideways. For nickel, due to the crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia, the price fluctuates widely. For stainless steel, with strong cost support, the price rises significantly, and specific risks and demand factors should be noted [9]. Energy and Chemicals - For most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, and various fuels, the short - term judgments are mainly sideways or sideways - down, with different influencing factors such as OPEC + production policies, geopolitical situations, and cost - end changes. For chemical products like methanol, PTA, and short - fiber, the short - term judgments are also sideways, each affected by factors such as macro - energy, upstream - downstream device dynamics, and demand [11]. Agriculture - For most agricultural products such as grains, oils, and fibers, the short - term judgments are sideways, with factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts to be considered [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 18, both equity indices and CGB futures fell, and most commodities fell [10][13]. - The Financial Times reported that Chinese Internet regulators have instructed companies to terminate orders for NVIDIA's RTX Pro 6000D chips, and the MFA stated China's stance [40]. - HKEX and ADX signed a MoU to explore capital market cooperation, and the SFC and UAE's SCA signed a MoU to expand cross - border market access for public funds [41][42]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 18, equity indices and CGB futures dropped, and most commodities declined. Among Chinese commodity futures, the top three gainers were corn starch, egg, and corn, while the top three decliners were TSR 20, glass, and coking coal. Among Chinese financial futures, equity indices and CGB futures fell [10][11][12][13]. 1.2 Daily Drop 1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On September 18, silicon metal decreased by 0.2% to 8905 yuan/ton. Supply continued to rise, mainly from the northwest and southwest regions, while demand improved slightly month - on - month. Inventory might face accumulation pressure [16][17][18]. 1.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - On September 18, lithium carbonate decreased by 0.7% to 72880 yuan/ton. There was a supply - demand gap but smaller than expected. Supply was increasing, and demand picked up in September, with social inventory slightly decreasing and warehouse receipts recovering [23][24][26]. 1.2.3 TSR 20 - On September 18, TSR 20 decreased by 2.3% to 12300 yuan/ton. It was difficult to break through the previous high in the short term without further bullish drivers. Supply might increase, and demand and downstream purchasing willingness needed to be observed. If prices couldn't break through the previous high in mid - to - late September, the bullish stance would be abandoned [31][32][33]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Financial Times reported that Chinese Internet regulators asked companies to terminate orders for NVIDIA's RTX Pro 6000D chips. NVIDIA's CEO was disappointed, and the MFA stated China's stance on maintaining global industrial and supply chain stability [40]. 2.2 Industry News - HKEX and ADX signed a MoU to explore cooperation in capital markets, including market promotion, ETFs, etc. The SFC and UAE's SCA signed a MoU to expand cross - border market access for public funds under the MRF arrangement [41][42].

Group 1: Report Core View - In the week ending September 12, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels, mainly due to a significant increase in net crude oil exports of 3.111 million barrels per day. Single - week imports dropped to the lowest level in the same period in five years, while exports reached the highest level in the same period in five years. Single - week crude oil production slightly declined by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate fell from 94.9% to 93.3%, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. Gasoline inventories decreased, but diesel inventories continued to accumulate, and the total inventories of crude oil and petroleum products continued to rise from a high level [4]. Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data (in million barrels) - US commercial crude oil inventory change: - 9.285 (previous value: + 3.939) [6] - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: - 0.296 (previous value: - 0.365) [6] - US strategic petroleum inventory change: + 0.504 (previous value: + 0.514) [6] - US gasoline inventory change: - 2.347 (previous value: + 1.458) [6] - US diesel inventory change: + 4.046 (previous value: + 4.715) [6] - US jet fuel inventory change: + 0.632 (previous value: + 0.474) [6] - US fuel oil inventory change: - 0.409 (previous value: + 1.297) [6] - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): + 1.171 (previous value: + 15.43) [6] Production, Demand and Trade Data (in thousand barrels per day) - US crude oil production: 13,482 (previous value: 13,495) [6] - US refined product apparent demand: 20,637 (previous value: 19,781) [6] - US gasoline apparent demand: 8,810 (previous value: 8,508) [6] - US diesel apparent demand: 3,621 (previous value: 3,377) [6] - US crude oil imports: 5,692 (previous value: 6,271) [6] - US crude oil exports: 5,277 (previous value: 2,745) [6] - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 16,424 (previous value: 16,818) [6] - US refinery utilization rate (%): 93.3 (previous value: 94.9) [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Volatile. The market sentiment has weakened again, and oils and fats may continue to adjust in the near term. However, due to factors such as the expected increase in overseas production demand, the possibility of a further downward adjustment of US soybean yield, and the strong expectation of a Fed rate cut, there is a high probability that the price of oils and fats will rise again in the medium term [5]. - **Protein Meals**: Volatile. The Fed is about to cut interest rates, and attention should be paid to whether it exceeds expectations. The US soybean yield still has room for downward adjustment, and the progress of sowing in South America is uncertain. With both long and short positions coexisting, US soybeans will move in a volatile manner. Affected by spot inventory accumulation and weak sentiment, the protein meal futures price is testing the support at the lower edge of the range, and the basis fluctuates with the spot. It is recommended to hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell hedges on rallies, and downstream enterprises are advised to buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Volatile and weak in the short term, with a long - term outlook of short - term bearish and long - term bullish. In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage opportunities, with the core logic being to trade the pressure of new grain listing and the valuation correction after the selling pressure is largely released [7]. - **Hogs**: Volatile. As the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approach, festival demand may gradually start, but the hog supply in September is abundant, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year. Both supply and demand of hogs are increasing, and the spot price is expected to move in a volatile manner. From a futures perspective, hogs are still in the period of high - capacity realization in the fourth quarter. After the National Day, hog prices are expected to continue to face supply pressure, while the prices of far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction. There is a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Volatile and bullish in the short term. The macro sentiment is acceptable, and the fundamentals also have short - term support. The short - term trend of rubber prices is expected to be volatile and bullish [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Volatile. In the short term, there will be no major changes in the fundamentals and raw materials, and the futures price will move in a range - bound manner [13]. - **Cotton**: Volatile in the short term, with a reference range of 13800 - 14300 yuan/ton. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate. Low inventory provides strong support for cotton prices at the bottom, but there is a lack of momentum for a rebound. Pay attention to the actual purchase price dynamics. When a large amount of new cotton is listed, the reality of increased production in the new year will gradually put downward pressure on cotton prices [13]. - **Sugar**: Volatile and weak in the long term, with a short - term reference range of 5500 - 5750 yuan/ton for single - side trading. In the long term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season, sugar prices have a downward driving force and are expected to be volatile and weak. In the short term, sugar prices stop falling and rebound [14]. - **Pulp**: Volatile. The internal contradictions of pulp are divided, with important long and short factors coexisting. The futures price of pulp is expected to move in a volatile manner, with an expected fluctuation range of 4950 - 5300 [15]. - **Offset Paper**: Volatile. It is difficult for the upward driving force to emerge, and offset paper moves in a narrow - range volatile manner. It is recommended to consider trading in the range of 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: Volatile and bullish in the short term. It is expected that the market will continue to destock in September, and with the expectation of improved terminal demand on a month - on - month basis, log prices may stop falling and stabilize [18]. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. For most products, there are short - term and long - term differences in market trends. For example, in the hog market, there is a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", with short - term supply pressure and long - term hope for price improvement due to capacity reduction. In the corn market, there is a short - term bearish and long - term bullish situation [8][7]. - The market sentiment and macro - economic factors, such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, the US soybean production situation, and the international trade environment, have a significant impact on the prices of agricultural products. For instance, the expected Fed rate cut affects the prices of oils and fats, protein meals, etc. The change in US soybean production and export also affects the relevant product markets [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment has weakened, and oils and fats may continue to adjust. From a macro perspective, the market has a strong expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and the US dollar has weakened. Crude oil prices have risen due to concerns about Russian oil supply disruptions. From an industrial perspective, the drought - affected area of US soybeans has continued to expand, and the soybean yield may be further adjusted downward. The import volume of domestic soybeans is expected to decline seasonally, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may gradually peak. The flood in the Sabah region of Malaysia may affect palm oil production, and the palm oil inventory in September is likely to continue to increase. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining, but it is still higher than the same period last year. The relationship between China and Canada remains uncertain [5]. - **Protein Meals**: The cost support has shifted downward, and the prices of double - meal futures continue to decline. Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates this week. The US soybean area has been increased, and the yield has been slightly adjusted downward. The soybean sowing progress in Brazil is slow, and the South American premium has weakened. Domestically, in the short term, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continues to accumulate, and the physical inventory of feed enterprises' soybean meal has increased slightly. The spot and basis are running at a low level. In the long term, there is no supply gap before December. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, and rapeseed meal is expected to follow soybean meal and move in a volatile manner [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Recent continuous rainfall has occurred, and attention should be paid to the grain quality. The domestic corn price is generally weak. The supply of old - crop corn is decreasing, and the inventory in each link is declining. In the Northeast, the supply of old - crop corn is tight, and new - crop corn has not been listed in large quantities. In North China, continuous rainfall has led to problems such as moldy and bald ears in some areas, and the price has continued to decline. In the short term, the market will face the pressure of new - crop corn listing. In the long term, the price is not pessimistic in the context of a tighter carry - over inventory [7]. - **Hogs**: The policy of weight reduction and production limitation continues, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. On September 16, the Ministry of Agriculture continued to guide breeding enterprises to reduce production capacity. From September 18 - 19, 15,000 tons of hog reserves will be rotated. In the short term, the planned hog slaughter volume in September has increased by 4% compared with that in August. In the medium term, the number of newborn piglets has been increasing, and the hog slaughter volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, if the policy of capacity reduction is effectively implemented in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure in 2026 will be gradually reduced. The ratio of meat to hog price has slightly increased, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is stable. The utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has continued to decline. In the short term, the hog price is under pressure, and in the long term, the hog price may gradually strengthen [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: It has adjusted downward following the overall commodity market. The short - term reality shows strong spot, inventory reduction, and a continuously narrowing basis. However, it is difficult to break through the previous high without further positive driving factors. The supply situation in the producing areas is improving, and attention should be paid to the supply volume and inventory reduction rate. The downstream procurement intention needs to be observed [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has returned to a weak trend, mainly dragged down by the overall commodity market. The absolute price and operating logic of the futures have changed little recently, and it mainly follows the movement of natural rubber. In the medium - term, due to the expected high - frequency equipment maintenance from September to November and the low price, the bearish sentiment has cooled down, and the bottom support is strong, but there is no continuous upward driving force [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price continues to fluctuate slightly. New cotton in Xinjiang has begun to be purchased in small quantities, and the market is waiting for the purchase price to provide guidance. The cotton inventory is low, and the downstream demand has improved marginally, but the demand - side positive factors are not strong. The USDA September report has not adjusted the US cotton production and has raised the Chinese cotton production, but it is still underestimated [13]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price continues to fluctuate. In the long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, and the sugar price has a downward driving force. In the short term, the production and export of Brazilian sugar are in the peak season, and the domestic import volume has increased. The fundamentals are relatively loose, but the short - term downward space is limited, and there is a certain support for a rebound [14]. - **Pulp**: There is no obvious breakthrough - type driving force, and the pulp maintains a volatile trend. The futures price of pulp has been moving horizontally, and the spot trading of softwood pulp is weak, while that of hardwood pulp is slightly better. The price increase of the US dollar - denominated pulp has weakened, and the new supply from Chenming's resumption of production has increased. The demand has entered the seasonal peak season, but the upward transmission of terminal demand is weak. The pulp futures valuation is at a low level, but the problem of needle - pulp warehouse receipts suppresses the futures price [15]. - **Offset Paper**: It is difficult for the upward driving force to emerge, and offset paper moves in a narrow - range volatile manner. The trading volume of offset paper at the initial stage of listing is limited, and there is no substantial driving force. In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the tendering of publishers has not started. The market lacks a clear upward or downward driving force. In the long - term, the fundamentals of offset paper are weak, and the market has a strong bearish expectation. It is recommended to consider trading in the range of 4000 - 4500 [16]. - **Logs**: The processing demand has warmed up, and the spot price has boosted the futures price to move in a volatile and bullish manner. The downstream sales of logs have improved, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is in a stage of game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The arrival pressure in September has improved, but the import volume is expected to increase seasonally in October. The demand for logs in China is expected to increase from September to October, and the spot price is in a bottom - building trend [18]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including prices, price changes, and inventory information of oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of commodities on September 17, 2025, shows that the commodity 20 index is 2515.59, down 0.45%; the industrial product index is 2270.66, up 0.04% [178]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On September 17, 2025, the agricultural product index is 961.10, with a daily decline of 0.69%, a decline of 0.99% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.21% in the past month, and an increase of 0.67% since the beginning of the year [180].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025-09-18 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Global Shipping Futures：BDI and FFAs 波罗的海航运指数及期货介绍 摘要 Abstract This report introduces Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and its BCI, BPI and BSI sub-indices, and reviews the trading rules and main participants in the dry-bulk FFA market. Since 2024, FFA prices and their correspo ...