投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-09-09 美元维持弱势，基本金属走势趋强 有⾊观点：美元维持弱势，基本⾦属⾛势趋强 交易逻辑：8月主要经济体制造业PMI有所回升，8月非农新增就业低 于预期，美联储降息预期压制美元，弱美元有望提振基本金属。供需 面来看，反向开票问题使得废料供应收紧，再生金属冶炼减产风险加 大，考虑到9月是传统消费旺季，基本金属供需有望再度趋紧。中短 期来看，弱美元和供应扰动对价格有支撑，终端需求预期偏弱将限制 上方高度，预期基本金属整体维持震荡，关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会， 密切留意消费变化，长期来看，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在， 并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，这对基本金属价 格有支撑。 铜观点：美联储降息概率提升，铜价⾼位运⾏。 氧化铝观点：现货⾛弱库存累积，氧化铝价震荡偏弱。 铝观点：关注需求成⾊，铝价震荡运⾏。 铝合⾦观点：关注税返退坡变化，盘⾯震荡运⾏。 锌观点：库存延续累积，关注锌价⾼空机会。 铅观点：社会库存⼩幅累积，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：伦镍库存⼤幅增加，镍价宽幅震荡。 不锈钢观点：成本⽀撑坚挺，不锈钢盘⾯ ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-09 "反内卷"暂未落地，补库逻辑⽀撑板 块品种价格 上周尾盘因"反内卷"传闻⽽拉升，然⽽传闻暂未落地，⽇盘回吐此 前的部分涨幅，与此同时，阅兵结束后，下游需求的回升相对明显， 进⽽强化了旺季补库的逻辑，使得板块品种价格重获⽀撑，夜盘时段 盘⾯横向整理为主，其中铁矿需求有钢企复产⽀撑、巴西供给有港⼝ 检修扰动，导致价格相对表现偏强。短期来看，旺季补库逻辑仍有预 期，预计板块品种价格仍有⽀撑。 上周尾盘因"反内卷"传闻而拉升，然而传闻暂未落地，日盘回吐此 前的部分涨幅，与此同时，阅兵结束后，下游需求的回升相对明显， 进而强化了旺季补库的逻辑，使得板块品种价格重获支撑，夜盘时段 盘面横向整理为主，其中铁矿需求有钢企复产支撑、巴西供给有港口 检修扰动，导致价格相对表现偏强。短期来看，旺季补库逻辑仍有预 期，预计板块品种价格仍有支撑。 1、铁元素方面，港口检修导致巴西发运回落明显，预计对全年发运 影响较小，阅兵结束后铁矿需求有恢复预期，钢企库存低位，且中下 旬有节前补库的预期，基本面健康，但成材端旺季需求有待持续验 证，限 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/09/09 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China plans to Amend the Foreign Trade Law, upgrading certain reform measu ...

中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-09 股指期货方面，轮动切向低位科技概念和哑铃。周一沪指高位震荡， 量能维持2.5万亿元，双创风格出现退潮，创业板指走弱，风格向哑铃切 换。退潮有两大推动力，一是上周五美国公布的非农就业人数大幅低于预 期，海外交易衰退和9月降息预期，美股AI科技股集中回撤，外盘风险偏 好下降，映射拖累国内算力硬件股，导致通信行业领跌；二是上周五" 反内卷"板块再度异动，但政策传言均未得到印证，难催化月度主线交 易。资金向低位科技板块和哑铃结构轮动，机器人、PEEK材料概念股爆 发，小微盘换手率、量能占比提升。由于当前双创强势股过于拥挤，后续 风格层面存在均值回归的可能性，当下获利盘较多，建议以哑铃结构应对 市场分歧，短期建议配置红利ETF+IM多单。 股指期权方面，波动率放大的可能性较小。昨日现货端波动放缓， 期权端量能下降，较上周金额下降约30%。波动率方面，高波品种昨日波 动率下跌2%-3%绝对值水平，而50、300ETF期权波动率基本维持在21%左右 的绝对水平，年内分位数较高。但当前我们认为波动再度升高的概率偏 弱：1）隐历差逐渐收窄，从年内以及滚动250日波动率分位 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - Most hot topic-related heat signal indices are at relatively high levels [5] - Historical experience shows that when the industry heat signal index is at a relatively high level, future excess returns may underperform [5] - Technology stocks are under pressure in the momentum dimension, which may drive quantitative funds back to the micro-cap style, and the future style is expected to switch to a dumbbell structure [5]

图说金融(20250904): 牛市中的调整空间有多大 1、历史经验显示, A股快速上行之后的调整幅度约在10%附近 风险提示: 仅作为数据展示,不构成策略建议 | | | | 历次快速上行之后的调整幅度 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上证综指 | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证1000 | Wind全A指数 | 持续时间 | | 20070529-20070705 | -16.59% | -15. 13% | -30. 36% | -33.93% | -21.05% | 27 | | 20090804-20090831 | -23. 15% | -25. 26% | -19.45% | -18. 40% | -22. 62% | 19 | | 20150126-20150206 | -9.08% | -8. 19% | -3. 89% | -1. 74% | -5. 91% | 9 | | 20161128-20170116 | -5. 30% | -6. 10% | -9. 59% | -13.16% | -8. 86 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the week ending August 29, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.415 million barrels, with net crude oil imports rising by 434,000 barrels per day, and the estimated single - week crude oil production decreasing by 16,000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate dropped from 94.6% to 94.3%, indicating a continued weakening of demand in the refining sector. Diesel inventories resumed their upward trend, gasoline inventories declined significantly, and the total inventories of crude oil and petroleum products accumulated. The apparent demand for refined oil products decreased. Although single - week data has limited implications, there are still concerns about future crude oil inventories after the decline in refinery utilization [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: increased by 2.415 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 2.392 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: increased by 1.59 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 838,000 barrels in the previous period [5]. - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 509,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 776,000 barrels in the previous period [5]. - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 3.795 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.236 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - US diesel inventory change: increased by 1.681 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.786 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - US jet fuel inventory change: decreased by 796,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 293,000 barrels in the previous period [5]. - US fuel oil inventory change: decreased by 215,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 316,000 barrels in the previous period [5]. - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): increased by 7.102 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 4.394 million barrels in the previous period [5]. Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production: 13.423 million barrels per day, compared with 13.439 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US refined oil apparent demand: 20.652 million barrels per day, compared with 21.614 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US gasoline apparent demand: 9.117 million barrels per day, compared with 9.24 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US diesel apparent demand: 3.768 million barrels per day, compared with 4.141 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US crude oil imports: 6.742 million barrels per day, compared with 6.234 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US crude oil exports: 3.884 million barrels per day, compared with 3.81 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 16.869 million barrels per day, compared with 16.88 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US refinery utilization rate: 94.3%, compared with 94.6% in the previous period [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Affected by the military parade, iron - water production decreased, leading to a decline in steel production, especially in hot - rolled production. During the military parade, construction sites and rolling mills in some northern regions stopped working, causing a week - on - week weakening of demand, with a significant drop in hot - rolled apparent consumption. Both rebar and hot - rolled steel inventories continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and inventory accumulation maintained a relatively fast pace, showing a weak fundamental situation. Recently, steel inventories have been continuously accumulating, the fundamentals are weak, and the market's expectations for peak - season demand are relatively conservative, putting pressure on the market. However, after the military parade, iron - water production may return to a relatively high level. Meanwhile, steel circulation indicates that vehicle traffic in mountainous areas is gradually resuming, and some construction sites and rolling mills will gradually resume work. Attention should be paid to the phased restocking demand after the military parade during the peak season, which may support the futures prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Demand - Rebar apparent demand was 2.0207 million tons (-21,400 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 7.57% [2]. - Hot - rolled apparent demand was 3.0536 million tons (-153,600 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.63% [2]. - The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.2783 million tons (-299,400 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 3.49% [2]. Supply - Rebar production was 2.1868 million tons (-18,800 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.85% [2]. - Hot - rolled production was 3.1424 million tons (-105,000 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 3.23% [2]. - The production of the five major steel products was 8.6065 million tons (-239,600 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 2.71% [2]. Inventory - Rebar inventory was 6.4 million tons (+166,100 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.66% [2]. - Hot - rolled inventory was 3.7434 million tons (+88,800 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.43% [2]. - The inventory of the five major steel products was 15.007 million tons (+328,200 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.24% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Data of Scrap Steel - **Arrival Volume**: - On September 4, 2025, the 5 - day average arrival volume (AV5D) of 255 steel mills was 50.1713, with a week - on - week difference of - 0.3788 and a year - on - year difference of 17.9901 [3]. - For 132 long - process steel mills, the AV5D on September 4, 2025, was 24.8479, with a week - on - week difference of - 0.3378 and a year - on - year difference of 8.1972 [3]. - For 89 short - process steel mills, the AV5D on September 4, 2025, was 15.984, with a week - on - week difference of - 0.141 and a year - on - year difference of 7.3014 [3]. - For 29 full - process steel mills, the AV5D on September 4, 2025, was 8.6914, with a week - on - week difference of 0.064 and a year - on - year difference of 2.2955 [3]. - **Daily Consumption**: - On September 4, 2025, the daily consumption of 255 steel mills was 54.0863, with a week - on - week difference of - 0.7342 and a year - on - year difference of 16.8301 [3]. - For 132 long - process steel mills, the daily consumption on September 4, 2025, was 26.1813, with a week - on - week difference of - 0.7992 and a year - on - year difference of 7.6501 [3]. - For 89 short - process steel mills, the daily consumption on September 4, 2025, was 16.925, with a week - on - week difference of - 0.32 and a year - on - year difference of 6.56 [3]. - For 29 full - process steel mills, the daily consumption on September 4, 2025, was 10.36, with a week - on - week difference of 0.385 and a year - on - year difference of 2.5 [3]. - **Inventory**: - On September 4, 2025, the inventory of 255 steel mills was 442.5752, with a week - on - week difference of - 8.6378 and a year - on - year difference of 54.3592 [3]. - For 132 long - process steel mills, the inventory on September 4, 2025, was 219.5862, with a week - on - week difference of - 1.6168 and a year - on - year difference of 81.0522 [3]. - For 89 short - process steel mills, the inventory on September 4, 2025, was 119.464, with a week - on - week difference of - 4.546 and a year - on - year difference of - 1.674 [3]. - For 29 full - process steel mills, the inventory on September 4, 2025, was 97.625, with a week - on - week difference of - 2.295 and a year - on - year difference of - 26.109 [3]. - **Inventory Usable Days**: - On September 4, 2025, the inventory usable days of 255 steel mills was 8.18, with a week - on - week difference of - 0.05 and a year - on - year difference of - 2.24 [3]. - For 132 long - process steel mills, the inventory usable days on September 4, 2025, was 8.39, with a week - on - week difference of 0.19 and a year - on - year difference of 0.91 [3]. - For 89 short - process steel mills, the inventory usable days on September 4, 2025, was 7.06, with a week - on - week difference of - 0.13 and a year - on - year difference of - 4.63 [3]. - For 29 full - process steel mills, the inventory usable days on September 4, 2025, was 9.42, with a week - on - week difference of - 0.59 and a year - on - year difference of - 6.32 [3]. 3.2 Seasonal Chart of Weekly Scrap Steel Data - Multiple charts show the arrival volume, daily consumption, inventory, and inventory usable days of different types of steel mills (255 - mill total, 132 long - process, 89 short - process, 29 full - process) from 2021 to 2025 [5][7][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the week ending August 29, 2025, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.415 million barrels, with net crude oil imports rising by 434,000 barrels per day and the estimated single - week crude oil production decreasing by 16,000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate dropped from 94.6% to 94.3%, indicating a continued weakening of refinery - level demand. Among petroleum products, diesel inventories resumed an upward trend while gasoline inventories declined significantly. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products accumulated, and the apparent demand for refined oil decreased. Although single - week data has limited implications, there are still concerns about future crude oil inventories after the decline in refinery utilization [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Inventory Data - U.S. commercial crude oil inventory change: increased by 2.415 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 2.392 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. Cushing crude oil inventory change: increased by 1.59 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 0.838 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 0.509 million barrels, compared with an increase of 0.776 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. gasoline inventory change: decreased by 3.795 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.236 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. diesel inventory change: increased by 1.681 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.786 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. jet fuel inventory change: decreased by 0.796 million barrels, compared with an increase of 0.293 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. fuel oil inventory change: decreased by 0.215 million barrels, compared with an increase of 0.316 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): increased by 7.102 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 4.394 million barrels in the previous period [5]. Production and Consumption Data - U.S. crude oil production: 13.423 million barrels per day, compared with 13.439 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. refined oil apparent demand: 20.652 million barrels per day, compared with 21.614 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. gasoline apparent demand: 9.117 million barrels per day, compared with 9.24 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. diesel apparent demand: 3.768 million barrels per day, compared with 4.141 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. Trade and Refinery Data - U.S. crude oil imports: 6.742 million barrels per day, compared with 6.234 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. crude oil exports: 3.884 million barrels per day, compared with 3.81 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume: 16.869 million barrels per day, compared with 16.88 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. refinery utilization rate: 94.3%, compared with 94.6% in the previous period [5].