投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-24 反内卷情绪炒作缓解，市场关注点有望重回 消费 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号：F03088415 投资咨询号：Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号：F03093201 投资咨询号：Z0020543 杨飞 从业资格号：F03108013 投资咨询号：Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号：F03108000 投资咨询号：Z0021453 王美丹 从业资格号：F03141853 投资咨询号：Z0022534 桂伶 从业资格号：F03114737 投资咨询号：Z0022425 张远 从业资格号：F03147334 投资咨询号：Z0022750 铜观点：有⾊稳增⻓⽅案即将出台，铜价获得⽀撑。 氧化铝观点：盘⾯情绪反复，氧化铝⾼位调整。 铝观点：情绪提振趋缓，铝价有所回落。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑较强，盘⾯震荡运⾏。 锌观点：宏观情绪仍存，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：供需偏宽松，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：反内卷交易趋缓，短期镍价宽幅震荡运⾏。 不锈钢观点：镍铁价格⼩幅回升，不锈钢盘⾯震荡运⾏。 锡观点：LME库存继续 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. For specific products: The investment outlook for stock index futures is "volatile and bullish"; for stock index options, it is "volatile"; for treasury bond futures, it is "volatile and cautious" [6]. Core Viewpoints - The stock market should be treated positively. There's no need to overly worry about the market adjustment. The policy is being implemented, there is potential for unentered funds to enter, and global stock market sentiment is positive. The bond market sentiment remains weak, with many short - term negative factors, especially for the long - end [1][6][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index failed to hold above 3600 points, and the CSI 2000 Index pulled back nearly 1%. The adjustment was due to factors like large profit - taking and limited imagination for certain sectors. However, it's not the start of a market downturn. Policy is being implemented, unentered funds will enter, and global stock markets are positive. The operation suggestion is to hold positions, specifically the IM contract [1][6]. Stock Index Options - Yesterday, the option market turnover was 8.96 billion yuan, a 27.48% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume of call options increased, and both buyers and sellers did not price in many negative factors. They saw the intraday pullback as a chance to bet on an up - move. The short - term strategy is to set up a bull spread, and the medium - term is to maintain a covered call strategy and add positions during the volatility increase [2][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, treasury bond futures closed down. The bond market sentiment is weak due to the rising risk appetite in the market and the stock - bond seesaw effect. The afternoon stock market adjustment may have boosted the bond market, but the bullish sentiment is unstable. The capital cost increased, and the bond market should be treated with caution, especially the long - end. Attention should be paid to long - end short - hedging operations and the signals from the Politburo meeting at the end of July [7][8]. 2. Economic Calendar - On July 21, 2025, China's 1 - year and 5 - year loan prime rates remained unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively. China's June全社会用电量 annual rate was 5.4%, higher than the previous value of 4.4% [10]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - **Food Delivery**: Shanghai market regulators interviewed food delivery platforms. The platforms have implemented three rectifications. The new Anti - Unfair Competition Law will be implemented on October 15, and the Shanghai market regulator has carried out legal publicity [10]. - **Anti - Involution**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the price limit, margin, and trading fees for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures contracts from July 25, 2025 [11]. - **Artificial Intelligence**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange conducted a special research on Shanghai's "Model Speed Space" and held a symposium on Shanghai's artificial intelligence industry chain enterprises [11]. - **Stablecoins**: The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority wrote about stablecoins, emphasizing the need to strengthen the discussion and implement the Stablecoin Ordinance [11]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but specific data summaries are not provided in the content [12][16][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, but the candidate for the new Fed chair is affecting interest - rate cut expectations. Attention should be paid to the implementation of tariffs in early August. The domestic second - quarter economic data shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy games at the end of the month. Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, and strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper should be maintained [6]. - The stagflation trading overseas is cooling down, and the long - short allocation ideas are differentiating. The financial sector maintains a pattern of strong stocks and weak bonds. Precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments due to rising risk appetite. The shipping sector is seeing a decline in sentiment. The black building materials sector is strongly rising due to favorable supply - demand factors. The non - ferrous and new materials sector is rebounding from a decline. The energy - chemical sector is expected to be dragged down by crude oil and show a weak oscillation. The agricultural sector is experiencing a rapid rise in funds and sentiment [7][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales data. The candidates for the new Fed chair generally advocate interest - rate cuts, and the nomination is expected from October to December 2025. Tariff policies may be implemented by August 1st and 12th, with uncertainties remaining [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, and June's export volume increased by 5.8% year - on - year, better than market expectations. High - frequency data shows an improvement in infrastructure investment. There are expectations for domestic demand - boosting policies around the end - of - month Politburo meeting. Currently, growth - stabilizing policies mainly focus on using existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper should be maintained [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights **Macro: Overseas Stagflation Trading Cooling** - **Domestic**: Appropriate reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts, and implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term [7]. - **Overseas**: The inflation - expectation structure is flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling down [7]. **Financial: Continued Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index continues to reach new highs, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, but concerns about insufficient incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: High intraday volatility drives short - term trading, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, but concerns about deteriorating option liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw effect continues, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. **Precious Metals: Rising Risk Appetite, Short - Term Adjustment** - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals continue to adjust, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [7]. **Shipping: Declining Sentiment, Focus on June Loading Rate** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [7]. **Black Building Materials: Favorable Supply - Demand, Strong Rise** - **Steel Products**: Positive news drives the market, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about special - bond issuance progress, steel exports, and hot - metal production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by coal - coke news, prices rise slightly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: Market sentiment is high, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Positive news triggers a sharp rise, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Driven by the coking - coal futures limit - up, prices rise significantly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about raw - material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The black chain performs strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Rising sentiment drives prices to the limit - up, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures price increases drive spot prices up, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about soda - ash inventory [7]. **Non - Ferrous and New Materials: Tariff Game vs. Policy Stimulus** - **Copper**: The possible early implementation of US copper tariffs pressures prices, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, and weak domestic demand recovery [7]. - **Alumina**: The impact of warrant registration needs to be observed, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected slowdown in ore复产, unexpected increase in electrolytic - aluminum复产, and extreme sector trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory accumulation shows fluctuations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about macro risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The rebound of the black series boosts prices, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline, and concerns about macro - turning risks and unexpected increase in zinc - ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Supported by cost and with inventory accumulation, prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: The long - term trend is oscillatory decline after the opening of the LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by weak nickel - iron prices, prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong supply - demand fundamentals, prices have a strong bottom, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about the复产 expectation in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rise under the "anti - involution" sentiment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by supply - side speculation, prices oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about insufficient demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. **Energy - Chemical: OPEC+ Over - Production, Crude Oil Drag** - **Crude Oil**: Prices are under pressure at high levels, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [9]. - **LPG**: The fundamental situation remains loose, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices of major producers decline, with a short - term judgment of decline, and concerns about unexpected demand [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices are under great downward pressure, with a short - term judgment of decline, and concerns about crude - oil and natural - gas prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices follow crude oil and weaken oscillatory, with a short - term judgment of decline, and concerns about crude - oil and natural - gas prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Boosted by coal in the short term, prices oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply - demand cannot provide strong support, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about export - policy trends and elimination of production capacity [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand both decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about the production - cut rhythm of filament factories and the return of overseas devices [9]. - **PX**: Supported by crude - oil costs and affected by unexpected device disruptions, prices fluctuate with costs, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about device recovery and new PTA capacity investment [9]. - **PTA**: Supply increases while demand decreases, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about the production - cut rhythm of filament factories and the commissioning of Sanfangxiang [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The upstream cost rebounds, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about terminal textile and clothing exports [9]. - **Bottle Chip**: Device production cuts are implemented, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about future bottle - chip operation [9]. - **Propylene**: After a strong debut, prices may oscillate in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices and domestic macro - situation [9]. - **PP**: Driven by multiple factors, prices oscillate upward, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [9]. - **Plastic**: Boosted by multiple factors, prices oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [9]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment improves, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: Sentiment warms up again, with a short - term judgment of cautious optimism, and concerns about expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: With strong expectations and weak reality, prices have a weak rebound, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about market sentiment, operation, and demand [9]. **Agriculture: Capital Sentiment Boosts Prices** - **Oils and Fats**: Prices oscillate and diverge, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices do not rise as much as futures, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade wars [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Spot prices oscillate strongly at low arrivals, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about insufficient demand, macro - situation, and weather [9]. - **Pig**: Driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, far - month contracts rise, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: Market bullish sentiment remains, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices follow the overall commodity trend, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about significant crude - oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the macro - situation, it is recommended for long - position allocation, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about macro - economic changes and US - dollar - denominated quotes [9]. - **Cotton**: Supported by low inventory, prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about demand and output [9]. - **Sugar**: Rising imports increase upward resistance, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about abnormal weather [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being rated as "Oscillating", some as "Oscillating Strongly". For example, steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are in the "Oscillating" category, and the specific ratings are based on the expected price fluctuations within the next 2 - 12 weeks [9][13][14]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, there are continuous macro - level positive factors. The continuous rally in the market has spurred mid - stream players such as those in the futures - cash business to build positions, creating a positive feedback loop in the industry chain. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, which was in line with expectations. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the pig iron output of steel enterprises rebounded more than expected, remaining at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. With frequent positive news and good fundamentals, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Carbon Element - The news of coal mine over - production inspections was confirmed to be basically true. The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coal industry has deepened. Although some coal mines are resuming production, domestic coal supply is still affected. The Sino - Mongolian border ports have fully resumed customs clearance, and the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. Two rounds of coke price increases have been implemented, but coke enterprises' profits are still around the break - even point. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. Coke inventories of coke enterprises are continuously decreasing. It is expected that the short - term futures will oscillate strongly [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - With coke entering the price increase cycle, the cost support for manganese silicon is strengthened. The market sentiment is warm, port miners are actively supporting prices, and manganese ore prices are firm. On the supply side, the daily output of manganese silicon has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved significantly. On the demand side, steel mills have good profits, and the downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [3][7]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price was weak. In the future, the production level of silicon iron is expected to increase, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and the short - term futures price is expected to follow the sector [7]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, and the deep - processing demand continues to weaken. Although the sales volume was good at the beginning of the week due to downstream restocking, its sustainability is uncertain. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the rhythm and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, there may be a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the view of oscillation is maintained [7]. Soda Ash - The long - term oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, but it still faces the problem of oversupply after the positive feedback. Currently, the upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory [7]. Specific Varieties Steel - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the upward trend of the futures price has slowed down. The expectation of stable growth in key industries such as steel has increased, and the start of a hydropower project has also brought positive expectations. After the continuous rise in the market, the macro - sentiment has cooled, and the spot price increase has slowed. In the off - season, the fundamental contradictions of steel are not obvious. With strong support from furnace materials and lingering macro - sentiment, the futures price is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Future focus should be on policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The small - sample pig iron output remained stable, and the ore price slightly decreased. The spot market quotation decreased, and port transactions dropped significantly. Fundamentally, overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the small - sample pig iron output of steel enterprises remained stable at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but further upward movement requires new driving factors [9]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume of scrap steel has been low, and the spot price has slightly increased. The fundamentals of scrap steel have deteriorated marginally, but the contradictions are not prominent due to low inventories. On the supply side, the arrival volume this week decreased, and resources are tight. On the demand side, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and full - process steel mills slightly decreased, but the profits of electric furnaces have improved, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has increased significantly. The inventory of scrap steel has slightly increased. The price of scrap steel is expected to follow the sector [10]. Coke - The second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the upward trend of the futures price has converged. The supply of coke has tightened, while the demand is strong, and the inventory of coke enterprises is continuously decreasing. The supply - demand structure is tight, and there is still an expectation of price increases. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [13]. Coking Coal - The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coking coal industry is strong, and the upward trend of the futures price continues. The domestic coal supply recovery is slow, and the import volume from Mongolia is high. The demand for coking coal is strong, and the coal mine inventory has decreased significantly. Although the actual impact of over - production inspections on the fundamentals is small, the market sentiment is hyped, and there is still upward space in the short term [13][14]. Glass - The downstream restocking continues, and the spot sales have improved. The demand in the off - season is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the policy, and in the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, maintaining an oscillating view [14]. Soda Ash - The upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory. The long - term oversupply situation remains, and although there are short - term factors driving up the price, the price is expected to decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [15][16]. Manganese Silicon - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The cost is supported, the supply is increasing, and the demand remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand relationship will tend to be loose, and the price will face pressure [17]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price has weakened. The production level is expected to increase, and the downstream demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship is healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand gap will gradually narrow, and the price lacks a continuous upward driving force [18].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-07-24 反内卷炒作降温，新能源金属价格巨震 新能源观点：反内卷炒作降温，新能源⾦属价格巨震 交易逻辑：中央财经会议重提有序淘汰落后产能，投资者对硅供应端 收缩预期增强，国内锂供应也出现扰动，市场情绪一度非常乐观， 新能源金属价格走势趋强；但价格短时间内过快上涨并不利于供应端 收缩，反倒是可能增加供给端收缩政策推进的难度，密切留意产业链 动向。中短期来看，供应端收缩预期和成本抬升预期强化，新能源金 属价格一度加速上涨，但在实际供需没有明显改善且累库风险可能增 加背景下，乐观情绪消退引发资金获利了结，这也使得新能源金属价 格出现巨震，新能源金属多头押注可考虑暂时获利了结。 ⼯业硅观点："反内卷"情绪仍在，硅价有所回升。 多晶硅观点：市场情绪反复，多晶硅价格延续⾼波动。 碳酸锂观点：市场情绪反复，锂价冲⾼后回调。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号：F03088415 投资咨询号：Z0016667 白帅 从业资格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Given the expected strength of coal and the weakness of crude oil, coal - chemical products will be stronger than oil - chemical products in the future. Chemical products may continue to fluctuate in the near term [2]. - The high -开工 reality dominated by high refinery operations at home and abroad and the weak supply - led expectations will balance each other, resulting in oil price fluctuations [9]. - The high valuation of asphalt futures will decline following the crude oil, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to fall as warehouse receipts increase [10]. - The prices of most chemical products, including methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, etc., are expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][8][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude oil: High - level pressure, pay attention to geopolitical disturbances, and the price will fluctuate [8][9]. - LPG: The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental situation remains loose, and the PG futures may show a weak - side fluctuation [3]. - Asphalt: The spot price of major suppliers has dropped, and the high - valued asphalt futures will decline following the crude oil [10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: There is a large downward pressure on the futures price [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It will fluctuate weakly following the crude oil [3][12]. - Methanol: Boosted by the macro - environment and coal, it will fluctuate [3][26]. - Urea: The market sentiment has slowed down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals, with short - term pressure [3][27]. - Ethylene glycol: The price will be widely adjusted, and it will seek a direction in the fluctuation [3][20]. - PX: The cost raw materials are weak, but the commodity sentiment is warm [3][14]. - PTA: The commodity sentiment stimulates the futures price to fluctuate more violently [3][15]. - Short - fiber: There are limited industrial contradictions, and it will fluctuate following the cost [3][22]. - Bottle chips: It will fluctuate following the upstream cost [3][24]. - PP: The macro - boost confronts the fundamental pressure, and it will fluctuate [3][31]. - Propylene: It had a remarkable debut, and the PL may fluctuate in the short term [3][32]. - Plastic: Supported by the macro - environment, it will fluctuate [3][30]. - Pure benzene: The balance sheet has improved, but the port has resumed inventory accumulation, and it will trade sideways [3][15]. - Styrene: The trading atmosphere is light, and it will fluctuate within a range [3][19]. - PVC: There is an expectation of cost increase, and it is cautiously optimistic [3][34]. - Caustic soda: Strong expectations but weak reality, it may have a weak rebound [3][35] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.78 with a change of - 0.04; Dubai's M1 - M2 spread is 0.69 with a change of 0.03 [37]. - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: Such as asphalt's basis is 251 with a change of 15 and 82300 warehouse receipts; high - sulfur fuel oil's basis is 150 with a change of 39 and 113980 warehouse receipts [38]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: For instance, 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 378 with a change of 60; 1 - month TA - EG spread is 344 with a change of 13 [39] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The content mainly lists various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not provided in a clear and unified manner in the given text

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-24 经贸前瞻改善，⾦价承压 中美开启新⼀轮经贸会谈，美⽇达成贸易协定，全球经贸前瞻改善，⾦价 承压。 重点资讯： 1）中美关税临时"休战"协议临近最后期限，双方即将展 开新一轮磋商。中国商务部周三公布，经中美双方商定， 国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至30日赴瑞典与美方举行 经贸会谈。 2）美国总统特朗普与日本达成贸易协议，降低了日本汽车 进口关税，并免于对其他日本商品征收惩罚性新关税，作为 交换，日本承诺向美国提供5500亿美元的投资和贷款。 价格逻辑： 周三晚间，金价自3437美元/盎司回落，运行在月内高点下 方，因美国与日本达成贸易协议的乐观情绪削弱了市场对避 险资产的需求。特朗普宣布美日达成重大贸易协议，涵盖汽 车、大米等多个领域，并施加15%的对等关税，带动市场风 险偏好回暖，对金价构成压力。此外，中国商务部周三公 布，经中美双方商定，国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至3 0日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。 与此同时，美元自两周低点小幅反弹，也促使部分资金流出 黄金市场。尽管如此，金价的下行仍受到限制：美元指 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report suggests that although the rumored news of investigating over - production in the coal industry is expected to have a limited impact, it will strengthen the market sentiment, making the thermal coal price more likely to rise than fall. The recent coal price is driven by peak - season demand for a weak rebound, but the high downstream inventory restricts the rebound space [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Event - Since July, the "anti - involution" market in the domestic coal industry has continued to ferment. On July 22, it was rumored that the National Energy Administration issued a notice to conduct a coal mine production situation verification in 8 key coal - producing provinces (regions), mainly checking for over - production. Mines with annual or monthly production exceeding 10% of the announced capacity will be ordered to suspend production for rectification. As of the time of publication, the notice was not found on the official website of the National Energy Administration [2]. Recent Coal Price Operation Logic - In 2025, from January to June, the national cumulative raw coal production was 240,456 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The coal price was weak, with the price of thermal coal at northern ports dropping from 770 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a low of 617 yuan/ton, a drop of 20%. Recently, the coal market sentiment is strong, and the high - temperature cooling demand in summer has increased daily consumption, driving a weak rebound in prices. However, the high downstream inventory restricts the rebound space [3]. Impact of Over - production Check News - Even though the impact of the over - production check news is expected to be limited, it will strengthen the market sentiment. Given that low - calorie coal has fallen below the cost line and there is a structural shortage of high - quality coal, the supply contraction expectation will make the thermal coal price more likely to rise than fall [4]. Policy Implementation Difficulties - In the previous round of supply - side reform, the elimination of backward coal mine production capacity had achieved obvious results. The current mines mostly meet safety and environmental requirements, so the effect of anti - involution and over - production checks on reducing production cannot be compared with that of supply - side reform. Also, the coal industry accounts for a large proportion of the economy in key coal - producing provinces, so over - production checks may conflict with local economic growth goals [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The black varieties in the domestic market have risen significantly, bringing a positive atmosphere to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" issued on July 20th has made coal and coal - chemical products favored by the market. The rise in futures prices has led to concentrated replenishment in the industrial chain, and the polyester industry has seen a reduction in inventory pressure and support for near - month contracts of polyester raw materials [1][2]. - The oil market is currently in a stage of coexistence of long and short factors. Crude oil supply is gradually increasing, while the strength of diesel continues. Different energy and chemical products have different trends, with some being affected by cost, some by supply - demand relationships, and others by macro - environment and geopolitical factors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The energy and chemical market was boosted by key factors such as "anti - involution" and "stable growth" on Tuesday. Iron ore futures reached a five - month high, and several glass and soda ash varieties hit the daily limit. The US Treasury Secretary will hold the third - round talks with China next week, possibly discussing China's purchase of crude oil from Russia [1]. 2. Sector Logic - The sharp rise of domestic black varieties has brought benefits to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" has made coal and coal - chemical products popular. The rise in futures prices has led to replenishment in the polyester industry, with some enterprises having a filament sales - to - production ratio of up to 1000%, reducing inventory pressure and supporting polyester raw material near - month contracts [2]. 3. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - It operates under pressure at high levels, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The current situation is a balance between strong refinery operations and supply pressure, with oil prices expected to fluctuate. The Brent first - line monthly spread has dropped from a maximum of $1.77/barrel on June 19th to $0.8/barrel [1][8]. LPG - The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3]. Asphalt - The spot price of major producers has fallen, and the high - valued asphalt futures price has declined following crude oil. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the accumulation of Asian crude oil floating storage are putting pressure on asphalt prices. The current asphalt is over - valued compared to other products, and its price is expected to decline [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - There is a large downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the decrease in power - generation demand are negative factors [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows crude oil and oscillates weakly. The supply is expected to increase and demand to decline, and it is affected by green - fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution [12]. Methanol - Boosted by the coal sector, methanol oscillates and strengthens [3]. Urea - There is a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment is boosted, and exports support the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. Ethylene Glycol - Supported by the macro - environment and the rise of the coal - chemical sector, it is affected by the restart of domestic devices and the concentration of incoming goods [18][19]. PX - Although the cost raw materials are weak, the domestic commodity sentiment is warm. It lacks upward drivers and is expected to oscillate [13]. PTA - It has limited drivers and is affected by cost and macro - sentiment. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and processing fees are under pressure [14]. Short - Fiber - There are limited industrial contradictions, and it follows cost fluctuations. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and the inventory has slightly increased [21]. Bottle Chip - The increase in polymerization cost supports the valuation. It is expected to follow cost fluctuations [22]. PP - Driven by factors such as stable growth, infrastructure expectations, and the rise of coal, it oscillates and rises [3]. Propylene - It had a good first - day performance and may oscillate after a significant increase [3]. Plastic - Supported by factors such as stable growth in the petrochemical industry, infrastructure expectations, and coal, it oscillates and strengthens [3]. Pure Benzene - The balance sheet has improved, but port inventory has started to accumulate again. It is expected to oscillate horizontally [14]. Styrene - It follows the market sentiment and may oscillate strongly in the short term. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the port inventory has increased [17][18]. PVC - The expectation of cost increase is strong, and it is cautiously optimistic in the short term. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals are under pressure [35]. Caustic Soda - Driven by strong expectations but weak in reality, it has a weak rebound. The market sentiment is warm, but the spot price has reached a peak [36][37]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.84 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 - month spread being 40 with a change of - 20 [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis value, change, and number of warehouse receipts. For example, the basis of asphalt is 236 with a change of 38, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300 [39]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: There are different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 438 with a change of - 84, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread being 331 with a change of - 26 [40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-23 延续股强债弱格局 股指期权方面，昨日成交额70.28亿元，相较前一交易日上升30. 20%，流动性进一步上行。情绪指标方面，前一日提到持仓量PCR短期动量 效应仍存，同时各品种偏度数据基本延续前一日低位，看涨预期偏强， 因此方向层面仍可随市布局上涨。操作建议上，中短期可布局牛市价差， 主线维持备兑。 国债期货方面，债市延续偏弱表现，其背后仍受风险偏好抬升以及股 市表现偏强导致的股债跷跷板效应的影响。从资金面来看，昨日继续有所 转松，资金利率继续有所下行，DR001和DR007加权利率分别由1.36%和1. 49%降至1.31%和1.47%。不过资金面的转松并未对债市情绪形成太大提 振。后续来看，债市整体或仍需维持谨慎，短期利空因素较多，尤其是长 端可能受影响较大，可适当关注长端空头套保操作。 风险因子：1）增量资金不足；2）期权流动性超预期；3）关税超预 期；4）供给超预期；5）货币宽松超预期 股指期货：沪指继续新⾼ 股指期权：⽇内⾼振幅带动短线交易 国债期货：股债跷跷板继续演绎 股指期货方面， 昨日整体飘 ...