1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 72 to close at 4,449 ringgit/ton, a 1.64% increase; the palm oil 01 contract rose 210 to close at 9,526 yuan/ton, a 2.25% increase; the soybean oil 01 contract rose 92 to close at 8,450 yuan/ton, a 1.1% increase; the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 29 to close at 9,818 yuan/ton, a 0.3% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.9 to close at 51.2 cents/pound, a 1.73% decrease; the ICE canola active contract fell 10 to close at 617.5 Canadian dollars/ton, a 1.59% decrease [4]. - The slight weekly gain in palm oil was mainly due to strong export demand for Malaysian palm oil in August. Due to the Indian Diwali festival and its cost - effectiveness, the import demand from India increased significantly, providing price support. Market institutions expect the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August to continue to increase to 2.2 million tons, and with limited market driving force, the market showed an overall oscillatory trend. There was limited news on the US soybean oil - related biodiesel policy. The weakening of US soybeans due to concerns about export demand dragged down US soybean oil, which closed down in an oscillatory manner [4][6]. - Macroeconomically, the US non - farm payrolls data in August were far below expectations, leading to an increase in market expectations of interest rate cuts. US Treasury bond prices rose significantly, and the US dollar index oscillated at a low level. Due to the weak US employment data and OPEC+ in principle agreeing to increase production again in October, oil prices trended weakly in an oscillatory manner. Fundamentally, the production of Malaysian palm oil in August is expected to increase slightly. Strong export demand provides price support, while the ending inventory is expected to increase to 2.2 million tons, limiting the upward momentum of prices. In the short term, the market driving force is limited. Subsequently, the Diwali festival stocking demand in India will continue. Attention should be paid to the upcoming MPOB report, and palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | Closing Price on Sep 5 | Closing Price on Aug 29 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 51.2 | 52.1 | - 0.9 | - 1.73% | Cents/pound | | BMD Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4449 | 4377 | 72 | 1.64% | Ringgit/ton | | DCE Palm Oil | 9526 | 9316 | 210 | 2.25% | Yuan/ton | | DCE Soybean Oil | 8450 | 8358 | 92 | 1.10% | Yuan/ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Oil | 9818 | 9789 | 29 | 0.30% | Yuan/ton | | Futures Spread between Soybean Oil and Palm Oil | - 1076 | - 958 | - 118 | - | Yuan/ton | | Futures Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Palm Oil | 292 | 473 | - 181 | - | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price of 24 - degree Palm Oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong | 9380 | 9320 | 60 | 0.64% | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price of Grade - 1 Soybean Oil in Rizhao | 8510 | 8470 | 40 | 0.47% | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price of Imported Grade - 3 Rapeseed Oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu | 9860 | 9900 | - 40 | - 0.40% | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Palm oil closed slightly higher last week. The strong export demand for Malaysian palm oil in August, driven by the Indian Diwali festival and cost - effectiveness, provided price support. Market institutions expect the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August to reach 2.2 million tons, and with limited market driving force, it oscillated overall. US soybean oil closed down due to limited biodiesel policy news and the weakening of US soybeans. Canola continued its weekly decline as the Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on imported canola from Canada until March 9, 2026, keeping demand under pressure [6]. - The MPOB monthly report preview shows that Reuters survey predicts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 will be 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July, reaching the highest level since December 2023; production is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July, increasing for the second consecutive month to the highest level since August last year; export volume is expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 10.7% increase from July, increasing for the second consecutive month to a nine - month high [7]. - According to SPPOMA data, from August 1 - 31, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 4.18% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.29% month - on - month, and production decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. According to MPOA data, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with a 1.26% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 7.36% increase in Sabah, an 8.14% increase in Sarawak, and a 7.56% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total production in August was 1.85 million tons [7][8]. - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from August 1 - 31 was 1,421,486 tons, a 10.2% increase from the same period last month. According to AmSpec data, the export volume was 1,341,990 tons, a 15.37% increase. According to SGS data, the expected export volume was 1,170,043 tons, a 30.53% increase. Indonesia's Bureau of Statistics data shows that from January - July 2025, the export volume of Indonesian crude palm oil and refined palm oil was 13.64 million tons, a 10.95% year - on - year increase [8]. - According to foreign media reports, Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month to 993,000 tons, reaching the highest level in 13 months; soybean oil imports decreased by 28% month - on - month to 355,000 tons, the lowest level in six months; sunflower oil imports increased by 27% month - on - month to 255,000 tons, the highest level in seven months; total edible oil imports increased by 3.6% month - on - month to 1.6 million tons, the highest level in 13 months [9]. - As of the week ending August 29, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.5069 million tons, an increase of 97,800 tons from the previous week and 397,800 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.2388 million tons, an increase of 52,800 tons from the previous week and 144,800 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 610,100 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous week and 16,500 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 658,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from the previous week and 236,600 tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending September 5, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 25,540 tons, compared with 33,760 tons in the previous week; the average daily trading volume of palm oil was 1,756 tons, compared with 1,573 tons in the previous week [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The Planters' Association of Ceylon reiterated its call to lift the palm oil planting ban. The association's chairman said they had submitted a proposal, and the current government had shown a positive attitude, believing that the latest committee appointment would approve the lifting of the ban [11]. - A research institution's commodity research report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be revised up to 19.3 million tons, an increase of less than 1% from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 18.8 - 19.8 million tons, reflecting strong production and good harvesting conditions. The preliminary estimate for Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season (October - September next year) is 19.2 million tons [12]. - A research institution's commodity research report shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 49.5 million tons, a 1.4% increase from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 44.5 - 54.5 million tons, due to strong output in the first half of the year. The preliminary estimate for Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season (October - September next year) is 49 million tons [12] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 22 charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and the three major oils' futures and spot prices, as well as the production, inventory, and export volume trends of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory trends of domestic three major oils [14][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's potential rate - cut in September and the weakening US dollar are favorable for risk assets, but the uncertainty of the Fed's personnel changes may disrupt market risk appetite. The domestic economy has the basis to achieve the annual growth target, and mild stimulus measures are expected to be introduced [2][87]. - Zinc concentrate supply is steadily recovering, with the growth of domestic ore processing fees slowing down and the acceleration of the recovery of imported ore processing fees. In September, due to more refinery maintenance plans, refined zinc production is expected to decrease by 2.62% to 60.98 tons, and zinc ingot imports still face large losses [2][87]. - Zinc demand is differentiated. Infrastructure construction is expected to speed up, and the issuance of the third batch of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds supports the domestic sales of durable goods. The delay of Sino - US tariff policies eases the export pressure of related products, and the concentrated grid - connection of deep - sea projects promotes the development of the wind power industry. However, the real estate market is weak, photovoltaic demand is overdrawn, and galvanized sheets are affected by anti - dumping, which will drag down consumption [2][87]. - Overall, the Fed's potential rate - cut and domestic economic support policies provide support for zinc prices. With the reduction of supply pressure and the approaching of the traditional peak demand season, zinc prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in September. Attention should be paid to whether the improvement in consumption can be effectively realized [2][87][88] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Market Review - In August, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc fluctuated in a narrow range at a low level, with a monthly decline of 0.92%. London zinc's center of gravity moved slightly upward, with a monthly increase of 1.88% [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Situation - The US economy is mixed. Employment is cooling, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's stance has turned dovish. The probability of a rate cut in September is high, and the US dollar is in a weak position, which is favorable for risk assets. However, the uncertainty of the Fed's personnel changes will affect market risk appetite [8][9][10]. 3.2.2 Eurozone Situation - The eurozone's manufacturing prosperity is continuously recovering, inflation is stable, and the employment market is improving. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in September, but the political crisis in France may put pressure on the euro [11][13]. 3.2.3 Domestic Situation - Most domestic economic indicators slowed down in July, but exports showed strong resilience. The annual growth target can still be achieved, and mild stimulus measures are expected to be introduced [14][15]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate supply is recovering. Overseas zinc concentrate is expected to increase by about 550,000 tons this year, and domestic zinc concentrate is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and zinc ore imports in July exceeded expectations [28][32][33]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - In 2025, from January to June, global refined zinc production decreased year - on - year. Domestic production increased, while overseas production decreased. In September, refined zinc production is expected to decrease by 2.62% month - on - month, and zinc ingot imports are expected to decline [38][44][45]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - From January to June 2025, global refined zinc consumption increased year - on - year. In the overseas market, the improvement of real estate and automobile consumption is uncertain. In the domestic market, the start - up of downstream primary processing enterprises in September is expected to improve, and the export of galvanized sheets has resilience. Traditional consumption sectors such as infrastructure and real estate show different trends, and emerging consumption sectors such as new energy have both opportunities and challenges [52][59][61]. 3.3.4 Inventory - In August, LME zinc inventory decreased rapidly, and domestic social inventory increased seasonally. In September, domestic social inventory is expected to turn to destocking [85]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The Fed's potential rate - cut and domestic economic support policies support zinc prices. With the reduction of supply pressure and the approaching of the traditional peak demand season, zinc prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in September. Attention should be paid to the improvement of consumption [87][88].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, it is not advisable to chase the rise of gold and silver, but in the medium - to - long - term, the outlook is positive [3][49]. - Since the beginning of this year, silver has been strongly favored. Although the silver price has risen by over 40% since the start of the year, it is still at a low level in terms of both absolute and relative prices compared to gold and copper, and has greater price elasticity, so its price trend is more promising [3][49]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Market Review - In August 2025, precious metal prices were strong. Weak US non - farm payroll data at the beginning of August and Trump's actions triggered recession concerns and increased rate - cut expectations, driving up precious metal prices. However, strong PPI data in July weakened the September rate - cut expectation, pressuring precious metal prices. Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook on August 20th boosted precious metal prices again. As of the end of August, the monthly increase of the COMEX gold futures main contract was 5.2%, and that of the COMEX silver futures main contract was 10.76%. In September, Trump's intensified intervention and weak non - farm data continued to strengthen rate - cut expectations and push up precious metal prices. The depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in August made the domestic precious metal price increase weaker than that of the international market [8]. II. Analysis of Precious Metals Price Influencing Factors 1. Intensification of the Fed's Independence Crisis - Since Trump's second term in January 2025, he has repeatedly attacked Fed Chairman Powell for slow rate - cuts and threatened to dismiss him to offset the negative impact of tariff policies and reduce government debt interest. Although it is difficult to dismiss the Fed Chairman according to the current legal framework, the list of potential candidates has been narrowed to three. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in August shifted from hawkish to dovish, possibly indicating the beginning of the end of the Fed's independence. Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook on August 25th was the first direct dismissal by a president since the Fed's establishment in 1913, intensifying market concerns about the Fed's independence, lowering long - term US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and pushing up gold prices [15][16]. 2. Weak Non - farm Payrolls Strengthen Rate - cut Expectations - The August non - farm payroll data continued to deteriorate, with only 22,000 new jobs added, far lower than the expected 75,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the hourly wage growth rate was lower than before, all supporting the Fed's rate - cut. Other employment - related data also indicated a cooling labor market. Although the current evidence for a US economic recession is insufficient, Trump's greater control over the Fed provides political motivation for rate - cuts. Considering inflation data, the Fed may choose to cut rates by 25bp continuously, with 2 - 3 rate cuts this year [17][18]. III. Analysis of Market Structure and Capital Flows 1. Changes in the Gold - Silver Ratio - In August, the silver price outperformed the gold price, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio dropped from 90.4 to around 85. Recently, with the gold price hitting a new high, the ratio rebounded slightly. It is expected that the silver price will continue to catch up, and the gold - silver ratio is likely to continue to decline [22]. 2. Changes in Futures - Spot and Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads - In the first half of August, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fluctuated narrowly, and it depreciated in late August, narrowing the spread between Shanghai gold futures and COMEX gold futures. The spread between Shanghai silver futures and COMEX silver futures was within the normal range, and the domestic futures - spot spreads were also normal [24]. 3. Central Bank Gold - Buying Trends - Since 2010, global central banks have been net buyers of gold. In 2024, they bought over 1000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year. In the second quarter of 2025, central bank gold - buying slowed down, with a net purchase of 166 tons, a 21% year - on - year decrease. However, the first - half - year purchase was above the five - year average and over 40% higher than the ten - year average. China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 10th consecutive month in August. It is expected that central banks will continue to buy gold in 2025, supporting gold demand [27][28]. 4. Changes in Precious Metals Inventories - Since December last year, due to the expectation of Trump's possible import tariffs on gold, a large amount of gold was transported to New York, increasing COMEX gold inventories. As of September 5, 2025, COMEX gold inventories were 38.96 million ounces (about 1212 tons), a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 129% year - on - year increase. COMEX silver inventories were 518.37 million ounces (about 16123 tons), a 2.38% month - on - month increase and a 69% year - on - year increase. In August, the silver inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased slightly [29][31]. 5. Analysis of Gold and Silver ETF Holdings - In the past three years, the positive correlation between the holdings of international gold and silver ETFs and precious metal prices has weakened. Recently, as the gold price hit new highs, funds flowed into gold and silver ETFs. In the second quarter of 2025, gold ETF investment was a key driver of gold demand. As of September 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR reached 982 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - ishares increased to 15194 tons [37][38]. 6. Changes in CFTC Positions - The non - commercial positions in COMEX represent the trend of speculative funds and usually lead the precious metal price trend. Since mid - August, the non - commercial net long positions in silver futures have increased rapidly, corresponding to the strong rise in the silver price. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures were 249,530 contracts, and those in COMEX silver futures were 55,923 contracts. The inflow of speculative funds directly promoted the precious metal price increase at the end of August and the beginning of September [43]. IV. Market Outlook and Operation Strategies - Trump's intervention in the Fed and weak US employment data have strengthened the market's rate - cut expectations. Multiple positive factors such as capital inflows into ETFs, central bank gold - buying, and the recovery of physical demand support precious metal prices. Short - term, it is not advisable to chase the rise of gold and silver, but in the medium - to - long - term, the outlook is positive. Silver is more favored due to its relatively low price and high price elasticity [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International aspects: Optimistic expectations for China-US trade negotiations have cooled, the soybean purchase agreement has fallen through, and the export demand for US soybeans is under pressure. The August USDA report is bullish, with the planting area of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season reduced by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, the yield per acre estimated at 53.6 bushels, and the ending inventory dropping to 290 million bushels. Recent low precipitation in the production areas has led to a significant decline in the good and excellent rate. Attention should be paid to the yield adjustment in the September report. The Ministry of Commerce has issued an anti-dumping investigation ruling on imported Canadian rapeseed, with a deposit ratio of 75.8% and an extended investigation period, strengthening the expectation of tightened rapeseed imports. The meteorological organization has reported that the La Nina phenomenon may return in September, and the soybean sowing work in South America is about to begin. Track the changes in weather [3][71]. - Domestic aspects: In terms of the ship - booking progress, the booking progress for November is 14%, 1.5% for December, and sporadic for January. The overall progress is slow. Market rumors suggest that 3 - 6 million tons of imported reserve soybeans will be released in November to ease the tight supply situation. The purchase of Argentine soybean meal is limited and there are quality problems. Without purchasing US soybeans, there is still an expectation of tightening supply in the distant future. The arrival of soybeans from August to September is sufficient, the crushing operation rate is high, and the supply of soybean meal is still available. Feed enterprises purchase on a spot - as - needed basis, and the purchase of basis positions has increased under the expectation of tightening supply in the distant future. The提货 demand is good, and there is support on the demand side [3][71]. - Recently, the dry conditions in the production areas have led to a significant decline in the good and excellent rate of US soybeans, and there is a large variable in the final yield. Last year, due to continuous low precipitation in the production areas from August to September, the yield continued to decline. The sowing season in South America has begun, and attention should be paid to the impact of the return of La Nina. The Brazilian premium is running strongly, providing support for import costs. Without purchasing US soybeans, there is still an expectation of tightening supply in the fourth quarter. The short - term arrival of Brazilian soybeans is still dragging down the upward rhythm. It is expected that the short - term Dalian soybean meal will mainly fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise [3][72]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Soybean Meal Market - Since August, soybean meal has first risen and then fallen, showing a range - bound operation. At the end of August, the 01 contract of soybean meal rose 19 to close at 3055 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%. The spot price of soybean meal in South China rose 70 to close at 2940 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.44%. The main contract of CBOT US soybeans rose 62.75 to close at 1053 cents/bushel, an increase of 6.34%. In early August, the price steadily increased, mainly supported by the extension of the China - US tariff agreement as scheduled and the strengthening of the expectation of tight supply in the distant future. In the middle of August, it rose sharply and then fluctuated, mainly driven by the unexpectedly bullish USDA report. In late August, the price of soybean meal continued to decline and adjust, mainly due to the news of the release of imported reserve soybeans in November and the expectation of a positive outcome in the China - US trade negotiation [9]. 2. International Aspects 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the August USDA report, the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is 426.39 million tons, a decrease of 1.29 million tons from the previous month's estimate. The global crushing demand is 367.7 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous month's estimate. The ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 124.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.17 million tons from the previous month's estimate, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 29.38% [12]. 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The August USDA report is bullish. In the 2024/2025 season, the export demand for US soybeans increased by 10 million bushels to 1.875 billion bushels, and the crushing demand increased by 10 million bushels to 2.43 billion bushels. In the 2025/2026 season, the planting area of US soybeans decreased by 2.5 million acres, mainly due to the increase in the behavior of US farmers switching to corn planting under the influence of China - US tariff frictions. The yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels/acre to 53.6 bushels/acre, but the overall production estimate decreased to 4.292 billion bushels. As of now, due to the high tariffs on US soybean imports, China has not made any purchases, and the export demand for US soybeans has decreased by 40 million bushels to 1.705 billion bushels. The ending inventory has dropped to 290 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 6.66%, indicating an expectation of tightening supply [15]. 2.3 US Soybean Production Area Weather - As of the week of August 24, 2025, the good and excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. As of the week of August 26, about 11% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought. The weather forecast shows that the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production areas in the next 15 days will be 30 - 35mm, lower than the average level. The eastern production areas are relatively dry. The 2025 Pro Farmer inspection report shows that the development of this year's soybean crops is better than that of the same period last year. The final yield is estimated to be 53 bushels/acre, and considering the dry weather in August, the estimated yield may be slightly adjusted downward [21][22]. 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - The data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) shows that the US soybean crushing volume in July was 195.699 million bushels, higher than the market average expectation of 191.59 million bushels. The cumulative crushing volume from September 2024 to July 2025 was 2.114335 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.70%. As of the week of August 22, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.99 dollars/bushel [24]. 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week of August 21, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market season were - 189,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 50.87 million tons. The net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in the current week were 1.373 million tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 7.23 million tons. China has not purchased new - season US soybeans [27]. 2.6 Brazilian Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - According to the USDA report, the Brazilian soybean balance sheet has basically not been adjusted. In the 2025/2026 season, the Brazilian soybean production remains at 175 million tons, the export demand is 112 million tons, the crushing demand is 58 million tons, the ending inventory is 36.96 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 21.21%. In July 2025, the Brazilian soybean export volume was 12.26 million tons. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) data shows that the estimated export volume of Brazilian soybeans in August is 8.94 million tons [31][39]. 2.7 Argentine Soybean Situation - The August USDA report shows that in the 2024/2025 season, the Argentine soybean production increased by 1 million tons to 50.9 million tons, the import volume increased by 300,000 tons to 6.8 million tons, the crushing demand increased by 500,000 tons to 42.6 million tons, and the ending inventory was 24.95 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, the Argentine soybean production is expected to be 48.5 million tons, the export demand increased by 800,000 tons to 5.8 million tons, the crushing demand remains at 43 million tons, and the ending inventory is 24.65 million tons [41]. 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Import of Soybeans and Other Situations - According to customs data, in July 2025, China's soybean import volume was 11.67 million tons. In terms of the ship - booking rhythm, as of August 19, the purchase progress for November - January is relatively slow. The estimated arrival volume of soybeans in August - September is about 10 million tons each month [47]. 3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventory - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.8253 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, and the unexecuted contract was 4.9174 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 8.898 million tons. As of the week of August 29, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal in the week was 149,540 tons, the daily average 提货 volume was 193,580 tons, the crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, and the feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days were 8.87 days [51]. 3.3 Feed and Breeding Situation - In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The proportion of corn in the compound feed produced by feed enterprises is 33.1%, and the proportion of soybean meal in the compound feed and concentrated feed is 14.1% [63]. 4. Summary and Outlook for the Future - International aspects: Optimistic expectations for China - US trade negotiations have cooled, the soybean purchase agreement has fallen through, and the export demand for US soybeans is under pressure. Pay attention to the yield adjustment in the September USDA report, the tightening of rapeseed imports, and the impact of the possible return of La Nina [71]. - Domestic aspects: The ship - booking progress is slow, and the release of imported reserve soybeans in November may ease the tight supply situation. Without purchasing US soybeans, there is still an expectation of tightening supply in the distant future. The current supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the demand side has support [71]. - It is expected that the short - term Dalian soybean meal will mainly fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In August, iron ore demand slightly declined from its peak but remained resilient. The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was over 2.4 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 192,000 tons. In September, driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, iron ore demand will still be resilient [3][40]. - In August, the overall supply was stable with a slight increase. Both monthly shipments and arrivals were at the highest levels of the year. Seasonally, September shipments are expected to decline month - on - month, while the arrival intensity in September will increase both year - on - year and month - on - month [3][41]. - In the next month, focus on the impact of steel mills' phased restocking on the market. With a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, after the end of parade - related production restrictions, northern blast furnaces will resume production, increasing phased restocking demand. As the National Day holiday approaches, there is still restocking expectation in mid - to - late September. With the improvement of supply - demand margins, iron ore is expected to show an oscillating rebound trend, but the upside is limited by high steel inventories and weak terminal demand. The price range to watch is 700 - 890 yuan/ton [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In August, iron ore futures showed an overall oscillating and strengthening trend, remaining relatively firm under the background of both supply and demand decline. In early August, the futures price rebounded due to better - than - expected steel demand in the off - season and strong exports. In mid - August, the iron ore price dropped as steel downstream demand was insufficient. In late August, iron ore was resistant to decline as its demand remained high. In September, pig iron output will remain resilient, and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectation will support the iron ore price, but the weak terminal demand pattern remains unchanged [8]. - The spot price oscillated with a slight increase. As of early September, the 62% Platts Index rose 2.6% to $102.7, and the PB powder spot price rose 1 yuan to 769 yuan/wet ton. The spread between high - and low - grade ores weakened. The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder dropped from over 120 yuan/ton to around 100 yuan/ton. The spread between the 09 - 01 contracts weakened last month and then rebounded in September [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Demand with High - level Fine - tuning and Overall Strong Resilience - In August, iron ore demand slightly declined from its peak but remained resilient. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was above 90%, and the daily average pig iron output of steel mills was over 2.4 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate slightly declined from 64.94% to 63.64%, remaining at a high level in recent years, supporting high - level pig iron output. In September, iron ore demand will still be resilient, and attention should be paid to the actual realization of terminal demand and changes in steel mill profits [10]. - Overseas, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increased to 90%. The crude steel output of major iron ore importing countries declined significantly. In July 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics decreased by 1.3% year - on - year [11]. 3.2.2 Supply: Overseas Shipments Stable with an Increase - From January to July, China's iron ore imports decreased year - on - year. In August, the overall supply was stable with a slight increase, and both monthly shipments and arrivals were at the highest levels of the year. The weekly average shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24 million tons. Seasonally, September shipments are expected to decline month - on - month, while the arrival intensity in September will increase both year - on - year and month - on - month [15]. 3.2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - In the previous month, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China decreased slightly month - on - month, remaining at a moderately high level overall but showing a differentiated structure. As of early September, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 138.25 million tons. The overall high iron ore inventory has limited support for the iron ore price [18]. 3.2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - The iron ore inventory of steel mills decreased slightly. As of early September, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.39 million tons. Steel mills' profitability at a high level this year drives restocking. After the end of production restrictions and as the National Day holiday approaches, there is restocking expectation, which will support the spot price. Currently, steel mills maintain low - inventory management [31]. 3.2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of domestic mines are at a neutral level in recent years, with a low possibility of significant short - term production increase. As of early September, the daily average concentrate output of 186 domestic mines was 452,000 tons, and the mine concentrate inventory was 681,500 tons [35]. 3.2.6 Freight Situation - In August, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) adjusted slightly. As of September 3, the BDI index was 1940 points. The freight rates of the Australian and Brazilian routes to Qingdao increased. Currently, the freight rates are at a medium - to - high level within the year, but the upside may be limited due to unstable global macro - demand [37]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Demand side: In August, iron ore demand slightly declined from its peak but remained resilient. In September, driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, iron ore demand will still be resilient. Attention should be paid to the actual realization of terminal demand and changes in steel mill profits [40]. - Supply side: In August, the overall supply was stable with a slight increase. Seasonally, September shipments are expected to decline month - on - month, while the arrival intensity in September will increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. In the next month, with the improvement of supply - demand margins, iron ore is expected to show an oscillating rebound trend, but the upside is limited by high steel inventories and weak terminal demand. The price range to watch is 700 - 890 yuan/ton [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The dismal US non - farm payroll data in August and the rising unemployment rate boosted the expectation of an interest rate cut this month, but the market has already fully priced in the rate cut in September. Some hawkish officials maintain a cautious stance, believing that if the Fed's independence is threatened, the low - inflation environment in the US will be severely damaged, and the Fed may not conduct an unexpected rate cut this month. Fundamentally, the shortage of overseas mining resources persists. Due to the new tax policy, the smelting profit of scrap copper may be limited, and the refined copper production in China will decline to some extent in September. With the arrival of the peak consumption season in September and October, social inventory may fall, and the B - structure of the near - month contract has widened [2][7]. - Overall, the weak US non - farm payroll data boosts the interest rate cut expectation, but the market has already priced it in. Hawkish officials warn that if Trump overly interferes with the Fed's independence, the low - inflation environment in the US will be damaged. The market will remain relatively cautious before the Fed makes a decision. In addition, China's manufacturing sentiment has recovered, industrial output has resumed growth, the contraction of new export business has slowed down, and the anti - involution sentiment is still fermenting. The emerging industry sectors in the A - share market continue to rise. Fundamentally, the shortage of overseas mining resources remains. Due to the new tax policy, the refined copper production in China will decline in September. With the arrival of the peak consumption season, refined copper will return to a tight - balance structure. It is expected that copper prices will continue to rise after the short - term fluctuation [2][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - LME copper price on September 5 was $9865.00/ton, down $41.00 (- 0.41%) from August 29; COMEX copper price was 454.35 cents/pound, down 4.15 cents (- 0.91%); SHFE copper price was 80140.00 yuan/ton, up 730.00 yuan (0.92%); international copper price was 70470.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan (- 0.03%). The Shanghai - London ratio rose to 8.12, the LME spot premium/discount was - $68.04/ton, up $12.22 (- 15.23%), and the Shanghai spot premium/discount was 165 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [3]. - As of September 5, LME copper inventory was 157,950 tons, down 950 tons (- 0.60%); COMEX inventory was 305,345 short tons, up 27,502 short tons (9.90%); SHFE inventory was 81,833 tons, up 2,103 tons (2.64%); Shanghai bonded - area inventory was 80,200 tons, down 3,300 tons (- 3.95%). The total inventory was 625,328 tons, up 25,355 tons (4.23%) [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The dismal US non - farm payroll data in August and the rising unemployment rate boosted the expectation of an interest rate cut this month, but the market has already fully priced it in. Some hawkish officials maintain a cautious stance. Fundamentally, the shortage of overseas mining resources persists. The new tax policy may limit scrap - copper smelting profits, leading to a decline in domestic refined copper production in September. With the arrival of the peak consumption season, social inventory may fall, and the B - structure of the near - month contract has widened [7]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of September 5, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded - area rose to 625,000 tons. LME copper inventory was basically flat, the proportion of cancelled warrants remained at 10%; SHFE inventory increased slightly by 0.2 million tons; Shanghai bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.33 million tons. The LME inventory rebound trend has basically ended, the US copper inventory continued to rise, and the Shanghai - London ratio rose to 8.12 due to the weak US dollar index last week [7]. - **Macro - situation**: In the US, the non - farm payrolls in August increased by only 22,000, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The number of full - time jobs decreased by 357,000, which is the second consecutive month of significant decline. The ADP employment in August increased by only 54,000, far lower than expected. The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer spending has flattened or declined, and business investment willingness has decreased. Some Fed officials advocate interest rate cuts. In China, the S&P manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, higher than the previous value of 49.5, and the new order index reached the highest since March. New export orders slightly decreased [8]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: Globally, the supply of mining resources remains tight, and the domestic weekly spot TC remains at a relatively low level of - $40.8/ton. Some mines have production problems. In China, refined copper production in September may decline significantly due to the new scrap - copper tax policy. In terms of demand, power grid investment projects will accelerate, the operating rate of refined - copper rod enterprises has rebounded, the new - energy vehicle market will enter the peak consumption season, and the domestic refined - copper market may face a tight - balance situation [9]. 3.3 Industry News - Canada's Teck Resources has suspended some major expansion projects and is working on solving the production problems of its flagship QuebradaBlanca (QB) copper mine in Chile. The review will end in October, and most of the subsequent work will focus on tailings facilities. Some approved projects will continue [12]. - SolGold has moved its tax registration to Switzerland and is promoting its flagship Cascabel copper - gold project into the development stage. It is considering adding a new listing location. The company aims to improve financial performance, increase shareholder value through tax optimization, and enhance investor appeal [13]. - Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in Chile will face a temporary production decline due to the failure of two ball - mill drive motors. The company will operate at half - capacity by bypassing the mill and may advance the maintenance work. It is estimated that copper - concentrate production will decrease by 3000 - 4000 tons during the four - week repair period, and an investigation into the root cause of the failure has been launched [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, SHFE and bonded - area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, SHFE copper basis, refined - scrap copper price difference, copper spot premium/discount, SHFE copper inter - month spread, spot premium/discount and Yangshan copper premium, copper internal - external price ratio, copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate spot TC, SHFE - LME ratio excluding exchange rate, COMEX copper non - commercial net long position ratio, and LME copper investment fund net position change [16][21][25][31][37][41].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, industrial silicon prices stabilized and rebounded due to the rising anti - involution sentiment, rumors of polysilicon industry production cuts and sales restrictions, and the stabilizing and recovering manufacturing PMI in August. The supply side showed a passive contraction, while the demand side had mixed performance. The social inventory of industrial silicon continued to decline, and the spot market gradually stabilized and rose [2][6][10]. - Domestically, the anti - involution sentiment is still rising, and rumors of polysilicon production cuts and sales restrictions are boosting the market. The manufacturing sentiment has slightly recovered, and external demand for new orders has maintained strong growth. Technically, the 8500 level on the futures chart has strong support, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term [3][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data | Contract | 9/5 Price | 8/29 Price | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial silicon main contract | 8820.00 | 8390.00 | 430.00 | 5.13% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 spot | 9100.00 | 9050.00 | 50.00 | 0.55% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 spot | 8950.00 | 8950.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | 421 spot | 9400.00 | 9400.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 spot | 10300.00 | 10300.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Organic silicon DMC spot | 10650.00 | 10750.00 | - 100.00 | - 0.93% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon dense material spot | 48.00 | 46.00 | 2.00 | 4.35% | Yuan/kg | | Industrial silicon social inventory | 53.7 | 54.1 | - 0.4 | - 0.74% | Million tons | [4] Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: China's S&P manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, higher than the previous value of 49.5. The official manufacturing PMI was 49.4, with the new order index reaching the highest since March. Domestic demand drove sales growth, while new export orders slightly declined. New order inflows led to an increase in backlogs in August, and manufacturers continued to downsize for the fifth consecutive month [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of September 5th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 93,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. The total number of open furnaces in the three major production areas was 300, with the overall furnace - opening rate slightly rising to 37.7%. The supply side showed marginal relaxation, and the demand side had different trends among different segments. The market was focused on the production cut and sales restriction efforts of mid - stream silicon materials, which boosted the price of upstream industrial silicon [7][8]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of September 5th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 53.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons from the previous period. The exchange - registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, reaching 49,972 lots, equivalent to 24.9 million tons. The inventory of 5 - series warehouse receipts was increasing [9]. Industry News - On September 4th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 to 2026", aiming to achieve high - quality development in the photovoltaic field by eliminating "involution - style" competition, with specific expected goals and implementation requirements [11]. - Recently, Guoneng Rixin won the bid for the secondary system upgrade and maintenance material procurement project of Southern Power Grid Comprehensive Energy's distributed photovoltaic power stations, which is of great significance for improving the operation management standard and safety of the distributed photovoltaics [12]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts showing data such as industrial silicon export volume, domestic social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts, weekly production in main production areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon and related products [14][16][17]

Report Title - **Title**: "豆粕周报" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract fell 26.25 to close at 1026.75 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.49%; the soybean meal 01 contract rose 12 to close at 3067 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.39%; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 20 to close at 2960 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.68%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 37 to close at 2550 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.47%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 30 to close at 2590 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.17% [4][8] - The decline in US soybeans was mainly due to the cooling of optimistic sentiment in China - US trade negotiations, the failure to reach a soybean purchase agreement, and concerns about export demand. The domestic near - term supply was relatively sufficient, while the purchase of US soybeans in the long - term had not started, leading to supply uncertainties. The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation period for Canadian rapeseed, and soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly higher during the week [5][8] - Recently, there was less precipitation in the US soybean producing areas, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans was significantly lowered. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the yield per unit in the September USDA report. The La Nina phenomenon may return in September, and the South American sowing season is about to begin. Track the changes in the weather in the producing areas. The optimistic sentiment in China - US trade negotiations has cooled, the soybean purchase agreement has fallen through, and the long - term supply remains uncertain, but the near - term supply is still available, slowing down the upward pace. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term [5][12] Summary by Directory Market Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The CBOT November soybean contract was at 1026.75 cents per bushel on September 5, down 26.25 from August 29, a decline of 2.49%. The DCE soybean meal contract was at 3067 yuan per ton, up 12 from August 29, an increase of 0.39%. The CZCE rapeseed meal contract was at 2550 yuan per ton, up 37 from August 29, an increase of 1.47%. The South China soybean meal spot price was 2960 yuan per ton, up 20 from August 29, an increase of 0.68% [4][6][8] - **Import Prices**: The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 489.00 dollars per ton on September 5, up 5.00 from August 29, an increase of 1.03%. The CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans was 467.00 dollars per ton, down 6.00 from August 29, a decline of - 1.27% [6] - **Soybean Processing Margins**: The Brazilian soybean processing margin was - 50.23 yuan per ton on September 5, down 27.40 from August 29. The US soybean processing margin (gross profit) was 2.71 dollars per bushel as of August 29, down from 2.99 dollars per bushel the previous week [6][10] - **Inventory and Sales Data**: As of August 29, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 696.85 million tons, an increase of 14.32 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 11.6 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 107.88 million tons, an increase of 2.55 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 30.7 million tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 440.82 million tons, a decrease of 50.92 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 115.78 million tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 905.6 million tons, an increase of 15.8 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 25.75 million tons from the same period last year [11] - **Trading Volume and Delivery Data**: As of September 5, the weekly average daily trading volume of national soybean meal was 10.19 million tons, including 7.02 million tons of spot trading and 3.17 million tons of forward trading, compared with 14.954 million tons the previous week; the weekly average daily delivery volume of soybean meal was 19.154 million tons, compared with 19.358 million tons the previous week; the main oil mills' processing volume was 230.39 million tons, compared with 242.54 million tons the previous week; the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.8 days, compared with 8.87 days the previous week [12] Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Soybean Market**: The decline in US soybeans was due to the cooling of optimistic sentiment in China - US trade negotiations, the failure to reach a soybean purchase agreement, and concerns about export demand. The US soybean good - quality rate was significantly lowered due to less precipitation in the producing areas, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of the yield per unit in the September USDA report [5][8][12] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic near - term supply was relatively sufficient, while the long - term supply was uncertain as the purchase of US soybeans had not started. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation period for Canadian rapeseed also affected the market. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term [5][8][12] Industry News - **Production Forecasts**: StoneX estimates that the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean production will be a record 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous year. UkrAgro Consult estimates that the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean production will increase to 176.5 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year. StoneX has lowered its forecast for the US 2025 soybean yield per acre from 53.6 bushels to 53.2 bushels, and estimates the US soybean production to be 4.257 billion bushels, lower than the previous 4.425 billion bushels [13][14][16] - **Sowing and Sales Data**: Ukrainian farmers have started large - scale winter sowing, with 377,100 hectares of winter rapeseed sown as of September 1, accounting for 33.8% of the estimated planting area. As of August 27, Argentine farmers sold 656,300 tons of 2024/25 soybeans and 116,200 tons of 2025/26 soybeans. Brazil exported 9,338,292.80 tons of soybeans in August, a 16% increase year - on - year [13][15] - **Policy News**: The Ukrainian president has signed a bill to impose a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed, which will last until January 1, 2030, and then decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5% [14] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, freight rates, RMB exchange rates, regional processing margins, and various inventory, sales, and price data charts to visually present the market situation [17][18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the supply side, steel supply showed a high - level and stable trend in August with obvious differentiation among varieties. After the military parade, steel mills will resume production, leading to a marginal increase in supply and greater inventory accumulation pressure in September [3][15][38]. - On the demand side, demand will seasonally improve in September but the intensity is expected to be limited. The traditional peak season for construction steel arrives, but the real - estate industry remains weak, and infrastructure investment growth slows down. Plate demand faces pressure from both domestic and foreign markets. Some terminals have restocking needs, promoting a marginal improvement in steel demand [3][26][39]. - In the next month, both supply and demand of steel will increase. Steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and rebounding trend in the short - term, but face significant upward pressure in the medium - term due to poor terminal demand. Rebar is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [3][41]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In August, steel futures fluctuated weakly, and the price center of the main contracts moved down. The market shifted from policy - expectation - led trading to industry fundamentals. Supply pressure remained high, and demand was weak. Although first - tier cities loosened property purchase restrictions, the market boost was limited. In September, demand will be the main driving factor [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Issued a Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Steel Industry - The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to address the core contradictions in the steel industry, with economic indicators targeting an average annual increase of about 4% in added value from 2025 - 2026. It also includes measures such as strictly controlling new production capacity, reducing production, and classifying enterprises [14]. 2.2 Steel Inventory Accumulation Accelerated, and Inventory Increased Significantly - As of September 4, the total inventory of five major steel products was 1.501 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 149 million tons or 11%. Construction steel inventory increased significantly, while plate inventory pressure was relatively limited. Social inventory increased more than factory inventory [19]. 2.3 Limited Demand Space in the Peak Season of September - In August, steel demand was weak. In September, demand will seasonally improve but the intensity is limited. The real - estate industry remains weak, and infrastructure investment growth slows down. Plate demand faces pressure from both domestic and foreign markets. Some terminals' restocking needs will drive a marginal improvement in steel demand [26]. 2.4 First - Tier Property Markets Loosened Restrictions Again, with Few Bright Spots in Terminal Demand - Beijing and Shanghai optimized real - estate policies in August, but the policy effects have not yet appeared. The real - estate industry is still in a downturn, dragging down the demand for construction steel. Infrastructure investment growth continued to slow down, and the overall pull on steel demand was limited. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly but remained in the contraction range. The auto industry showed good performance, while home appliance production in September decreased year - on - year. Steel exports remained resilient in the first half of the year, but overseas policy uncertainty is high [31][32][36]. 3. Market Outlook - In the supply side, steel supply will increase after steel mills resume production in September, and inventory accumulation pressure will increase. In the demand side, demand will seasonally improve but the intensity is limited. Overall, steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short - term, with rebar fluctuating in the range of 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [3][38][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina: After a period of relatively high - level operation, the supply surplus in the alumina market has gradually affected the spot market. With the accumulation of social inventory and a significant increase in exchange warehouse receipts, the spot price has declined. In the third quarter, new production capacity in Guangxi is expected to be put into operation, so the supply pressure remains high. Given the stable electrolytic aluminum production capacity on the consumption side, the market balance is under pressure, and the price is expected to remain weak. However, the cost of bauxite and potential policy support will limit the downside [3][63]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has slightly increased, but the proportion of molten aluminum has risen by 1.3% to 75.07% in August, reducing the supply of aluminum ingots. Some aluminum - processing sectors have shown signs of entering the peak consumption season, with an increase in the operating rate. The power and new - energy vehicle sectors are expected to grow well, and exports remain resilient, while the real - estate and photovoltaic sectors are sluggish. The inventory accumulation rate of aluminum ingots has slowed down, and there are occasional destocking periods. Overall, the supply - demand balance has improved marginally, and aluminum prices are expected to rise during the peak season. However, the upside potential is limited, and the price increase may be volatile [3][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Alumina Futures: In August, the price of alumina futures first rose from 3,160 yuan/ton to a maximum of 3,384 yuan/ton and then gradually declined to 3,006 yuan/ton. It closed at 3,036 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 4.8% [9]. - Shanghai Aluminum Futures: In August, the price of Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated but generally trended upward. It rose from a minimum of 20,365 yuan/ton to 20,835 yuan/ton due to the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and then declined. It closed at 20,740 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 1.17% [10]. - London Aluminum Futures: In August, London aluminum futures fluctuated due to the changing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. It remained within the previous month's trading range, closing at 2,619 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, up 2.2% [10]. 3.2 Macro 3.2.1 Overseas - Tariff Policy: The US has made multiple tariff adjustments, including expanding the list of critical minerals, imposing tariffs on EU products, and increasing tariffs on Indian goods, which have a negative impact on global trade [12]. - Fed Policy: The Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance, but Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was dovish, increasing the expectation of a September interest - rate cut. However, the personnel change and concerns about the Fed's independence have affected market expectations [12]. - Economic Data: In July, the US CPI and PPI increased, the unemployment rate rebounded in August, and the GDP growth rate in the second quarter was higher than expected. The manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high since 2022. In Europe, the ECB's inflation risk is balanced, and the economic growth in the eurozone may slow down in the third quarter [13][15][16]. 3.2.2 Domestic - Economic Data: In July, China's industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social retail sales growth rates all declined, and the CPI was flat year - on - year. The M2 and M1 growth rates increased, and the new special - purpose bonds issuance accelerated [17][18]. - Policy: Beijing and Shanghai relaxed property - purchase restrictions in August, and the central government promoted the development of urban agglomerations and the renovation of old urban communities [18]. 3.3 Alumina Market Analysis 3.3.1 Bauxite - Domestic Bauxite: In August, the supply of domestic bauxite remained tight, and the price was stable. The high - price bauxite may face limited acceptance due to the declining alumina price [20]. - Imported Bauxite: In July, China imported 20.063 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 33.75%. However, due to the rainy season in Guinea and policy uncertainties, the import volume may decrease in the short term [20]. 3.3.2 Alumina Supply - Domestic Production: In July, China's alumina production was 7.704 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.13%. It is expected that the production in August will be about 7.76 million tons. The supply in the north is relatively loose, while that in the south is still tight [23]. - Import and Export: In July, China exported 229,400 tons of alumina and imported 125,900 tons, with a net export of 104,000 tons. In August, the export window remained closed, and the import window opened, but the net - export pattern is expected to continue [24]. 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Spot - Inventory: As of the end of August, the alumina futures exchange inventory was 98,000 tons, an increase of 91,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The inventory has been accumulating [25]. - Spot: In August, the alumina futures price dropped rapidly, and the spot price followed, with the spot premium increasing from 28 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 247 yuan/ton at the end of the month [25]. 3.3.4 Alumina Cost and Profit - Cost: In July, the average fully - cost of the alumina industry in China was 2,933.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%. The decrease in the price of liquid caustic soda led to a slight reduction in costs [26]. - Profit: With the decline in the alumina price, the profit margin has narrowed [26]. 3.3.5 Alumina Outlook The supply of alumina is expected to remain under pressure, but the cost of bauxite and potential policy support will limit the downside [3][63]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis 3.4.1 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Domestic Production: In July, China's primary aluminum production was 3.7396 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. It is expected that the production in August will be about 3.745 million tons [37]. - Overseas Production: In July, the global (excluding China) electrolytic aluminum production was 2.406 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%. It is expected that the production in August will be 2.411 million tons [38]. - Import and Export: In July, China imported 248,300 tons of primary aluminum and exported 41,000 tons, with a net import of 207,300 tons. The import window is expected to remain closed [