Macro Analysis - The economic data for January-February 2026 shows a positive start, with production, consumption, and investment growth rates exceeding market expectations. This is attributed to strong consumer performance driven by the extended Spring Festival holiday and pre-released funds for "old-for-new" exchanges, robust export performance, and improved corporate profits due to narrowing PPI declines, alongside effective investment policies from 2025 [1][2][3]. Industry Research Real Estate - As of March 15, 2026, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 98,000 units, reflecting a decrease of 29.9%. Notable declines include Beijing at 4,764 units (-28%), Shanghai at 15,000 units (-14%), and Shenzhen at 2,866 units (-59%). In the secondary housing market, 10 cities recorded 174,000 transactions, down 8.0%, with Beijing at 30,000 units (-7%), Shanghai at 48,000 units (-2%), and Shenzhen at 9,845 units (-13%) [4]. Company Research Jiang Tao Laminated Board (1888.HK) - For the full year 2025, the company reported revenue of HKD 20.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, and a net profit of HKD 2.442 billion, up 83.6%. This growth is driven by multiple price increases in copper-clad laminate products, enhancing gross margins, and a significant recovery in fair value changes of equity instruments, which contributed HKD 504 million compared to a loss of HKD 79 million in 2024. The company is expected to maintain profit growth due to rising prices and potential growth in high-end electronic fabrics, leading to an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 by 28% and 26% to HKD 5.07 billion and HKD 6.08 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2028 at HKD 6.71 billion. The rating is maintained at "Buy" [5].

Economic Overview - The economic data for January-February 2026 shows a strong start, with production, consumption, and investment growth rates exceeding market expectations and rebounding significantly from the end of 2025[2] - The consumer retail sales (CPI) increased by 2.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.7% and significantly higher than December 2025's 0.9%[5] Consumption Insights - The retail sales of goods rose by 2.5% year-on-year, up from 0.7% in December 2025, driven by the extended Spring Festival holiday and the "old-for-new" policy[4] - Restaurant consumption surged by 4.8% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since November 2025, supported by increased domestic travel during the holiday[7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.8% year-on-year, significantly better than the expected decline of 2.7% and the full-year decrease of 3.8% in 2025[5] - Manufacturing investment rose by 3.1%, up 12.5 percentage points from December 2025, while narrow infrastructure investment increased by 11.4%[12] Infrastructure and Real Estate - Broad infrastructure investment rebounded to 9.8% year-on-year from a decline of 15.2% in December 2025, indicating effective policy measures[19] - Real estate sales showed a narrowing decline, with sales area and sales revenue falling by 13.5% and 20.2% respectively, an improvement from the previous quarter[23]

Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasized "innovation" and "reform," while the "15th Five-Year Plan" establishes "new quality productivity" as the core engine for economic growth[4] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" identifies three new policy changes: a comprehensive establishment of the "investment in people" concept, a focus on "establishing before breaking" in policy formulation, and a dual drive of "innovation-driven" and "institutional openness"[3] - The GDP growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is set at 5% annually, reflecting a shift towards quality over quantity in economic growth[7] Group 2: Key Indicators and Goals - The urbanization rate is targeted to increase from 67.9% in 2025 to 71% by 2030, indicating a focus on urban development[7] - The plan aims for the per capita disposable income to grow by 5% annually, aligning with GDP growth[10] - The proportion of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption is expected to increase by 3.3 percentage points during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period[9] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines 109 major projects, an increase from 102 in the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on enhancing industrial resilience and green transformation[23] - The plan emphasizes the construction of a new energy system, including renewable energy sources, to ensure energy security amid geopolitical risks[25] - Investment in human resources and public services is prioritized, with a focus on improving education, healthcare, and elderly care services[30] Group 4: Consumption and Economic Interaction - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to significantly increase the resident consumption rate, with specific measures to enhance income and improve the consumption environment[30] - Policies will focus on expanding service consumption and improving the quality of supply to meet diverse consumer needs[31] - The plan seeks to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash consumer potential[32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Consumption building materials have raised prices intensively, and the price transmission has entered the implementation stage. The profitability of leading companies is expected to gradually recover due to the clear pattern of consumption building materials and price - increasing opportunities provided by raw material price hikes [2][7] - After the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan Outline," attention should be paid to the capacity optimization of traditional building materials such as cement, glass, and fiberglass under anti - involution, as well as advanced new materials such as high - end electronic cloth fiberglass and heat - resistant ceramics [5][8] - The AI chain has a high prosperity and an obvious price - increasing trend. The fiberglass field is relatively favored, with electronic cloth entering the price - increasing cycle and roving having a good outlook in the first half of the year. Waterproofing in the second - hand housing transaction and new construction segments is also relatively favored. It is expected that the overall construction demand in 2026 may be similar to that in 2025, and more attention should be paid to individual stock opportunities in segmented fields. Commercial aerospace is in the stage from 0 to 1, with many domestic and foreign catalysts this year, and it still has a high long - term allocation value [5][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Consumption Building Materials Intensive Price Hikes, Price Transmission Enters the Implementation Stage - Waterproofing leaders raised prices again. From the beginning of 2026 to March 13th, the market price of East China SBS modified asphalt rose 33% to 4,650 yuan/ton. From March 11th to 12th, Orient Yuhong, Beixin Waterproofing, and Keshun Co., Ltd. successively issued new round price - adjustment letters [2][7] - Coating leaders raised prices collectively. From March 13th to 15th, Nippon, SKSHU, and Carpoly successively issued price - increase letters, covering interior and exterior wall latex paints, with a price - adjustment range of 5 - 15% [2][7] 3.2 Weekly Market Review - **Overall Index Performance**: From March 9th to 13th, 2026, the construction index rose 4.28%, and the building materials index rose 2.51%. Among various industry indices, the coal index had the highest increase, and the building index also had a relatively high increase [12][16] - **Sub - sector Performance in Construction**: The professional engineering and other index rose 6.32%, the infrastructure construction index rose 5.48%, etc. [14] - **Sub - sector Performance in Building Materials**: The cement index fell 0.29%, the glass fiber index fell 0.48%, etc. [18] - **Top Five Gainers and Losers in Building Materials**: The top five gainers included Yangzi New Materials with a weekly increase of 12.22% and China Energy Engineering with 29.41%. The top five losers included Yuexin Health with a weekly decline of 15.02% and Hongrun Construction with 7.85% [20] - **Top Five Gainers and Losers in Construction**: The top five gainers included China Energy Engineering with a weekly increase of 29.41%, and the top five losers included Hongrun Construction with a weekly decline of 7.85% [21] - **Infrastructure Public REITs Performance**: The average weekly increase of infrastructure public REITs was - 1.62%, with some products such as Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REIT rising 1.23% and some products such as Boshi Jinkai Industrial Park REIT falling 5.17% [22][23][24] 3.3 Aggregate Data Tracking - **Real Estate Data**: It includes national real estate new - start, construction, completion, and sales area cumulative year - on - year data, land transaction data (including total, residential, commercial, and industrial land), and real estate transaction data (including second - hand housing prices, listing volume, and 30 - large - city commercial housing transaction volume) [26][35][45] - **Social Financing Data**: It includes monthly new social financing, new RMB loans, new corporate bond financing, etc., as well as their year - on - year increase data [55][57][60] - **Infrastructure Investment Data**: It includes narrow and broad infrastructure cumulative year - on - year growth rates, as well as investment cumulative year - on - year growth rates in power, transportation, and water conservancy industries [64][66][68] - **New Contract Signing of Eight Major Construction Central Enterprises**: It shows the quarterly new contract signing amounts and year - on - year growth rates of eight major construction central enterprises from 2022Q1 to 2025Q4 [71] - **Special Bond Issuance**: It includes monthly new special bond issuance, replacement special bond issuance, and their cumulative issuance amounts [73][75][77] 3.4 High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Cement Data**: It includes the national PO42.5 cement average price, East China regional cement price, cement - coal price difference index, cement capacity utilization ratio, and cement production monthly year - on - year growth rate [84][85][91] - **Float Glass Data**: It includes glass spot price, futures price, inventory, and daily melting volume [92][94][98] - **Photovoltaic Glass Data**: It includes 2mm photovoltaic glass price, inventory, daily melting volume, and soda ash price [99][102][103] - **Fiberglass Data**: It includes the prices of SMC roving 2400tex, winding direct roving 2400tex, etc., and fiberglass inventory [106][107][116] - **Carbon Fiber Data**: It includes carbon fiber average price, raw silk price, inventory, production, capacity utilization rate, gross profit margin, cost, and gross profit [113][117][120] - **Magnesia and Alumina Prices**: It includes the ex - factory tax - included price of large - crystal electro - fused magnesia and alumina price [130][133] - **Upstream Raw Material Prices**: It includes asphalt, PVC, waste paper, HDPE, acrylic acid, and titanium dioxide prices [135][136][144] - **Physical Workload Data**: It includes high - machine rental rate and asphalt average capacity utilization rate [145][147]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The economy is expected to have a "good start" in 2026, but in the short term, it needs to digest the impact brought by geopolitical fluctuations. The economic data from January to February 2026 shows positive trends in industrial production, fixed - asset investment, and social consumption. In the "fixed - income +" market, different asset prices are affected by geopolitical factors, and the market needs time to adjust [1][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Event On March 16, 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for January - February 2026. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 6.3%, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.8%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.8% [1][7]. 3.2 Comment - **Industrial Added Value**: The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size from January to February 2026 was 6.3%, 1.1 percentage points higher than that in December 2025. The average monthly growth rate of the month - on - month growth rate was 0.61%, between the levels of the same period in 2024 and 2025. The year - on - year growth rates of the added values of the three major industries all increased compared with December 2025 [2][8]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to February 2026 was 1.8%, significantly higher than - 3.8% for the whole year of 2025. The average month - on - month growth rate was 0.86%, significantly higher than the same period in the past two years. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate, manufacturing, and general infrastructure investment all increased significantly compared with the whole year of 2025 [2][13]. - **Social Consumption**: The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods from January to February 2026 was 2.8%, rising again after 9 consecutive months of decline. The average month - on - month growth rate was 0.76%, significantly higher than the same period in 2024 and 2025. Except for automobiles and communication equipment, the year - on - year growth rates of retail sales of major consumer goods increased significantly [3][14]. 3.3 "Fixed - Income +" View - **Current Situation**: Since the beginning of 2026, the yields of government bonds with different maturities have shown a differentiated trend, and the yield curve has steepened significantly. The CSI All - Share Index rose by 5.1%, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 3.4%, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.8%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose by 8.1%, with small - cap stocks performing better [4][23]. - **Outlook**: Since the Iran conflict at the end of February, geopolitical turmoil has led to significant differentiation in the price trends of different assets. Non - energy and chemical equity asset prices have fluctuated significantly, and the bond market sentiment has been significantly suppressed. In the short term, the market needs to digest the impact of geopolitical fluctuations. The current capital market is relatively loose, and the overall risk of the bond market is not large. The equity and bond assets are still looking for a relatively balanced price - performance level [4][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the public utility sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes carbon dual control, supporting the green electricity sector. The report highlights a clear trend towards increased consumption of green electricity, driven by policies aimed at enhancing renewable energy integration and reducing carbon emissions [3][7]. - The public utility sector saw a 3.07% increase this week, ranking 4th among 31 sectors, with notable gains in wind power (8.49%) and solar power (5.31%) [16][23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The SW public utility sector increased by 3.07%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 0.7%. The sector's performance was bolstered by significant gains in wind and solar energy [16][23]. Coal and Electricity Prices - Domestic coal prices showed a decline, with Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal coal dropping by 15 CNY/ton. In contrast, imported coal prices increased, with Indonesian coal rising by 10 CNY/ton [10]. - The average clearing price for electricity in Guangdong rose to 332.44 CNY/MWh, while Shanxi's price fell to 226.01 CNY/MWh [11]. Policy Developments - The report discusses the release of the "14th Five-Year Plan," which includes goals for reducing carbon emissions by 17% per unit of GDP and establishing a clean, low-carbon energy system. It outlines the construction of major renewable energy bases and the implementation of a dual control system for carbon emissions [2][7]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on power operators involved in data centers, such as Yunnan Energy Holdings and Gansu Energy, as well as long-term stable investments in companies like Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that oriented silicon steel has increased in price for the first time since October 12, 2024, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [2] - The liquidity indicators show a decrease in SPDR Gold ETF holdings, with the current price of London gold at $5,018 per ounce, reflecting a 2.90% decrease from the previous week [11] - The report notes that the national high furnace capacity utilization rate is at its highest level for the same period in five years, suggesting robust activity in the construction and real estate sectors [19] Summary by Sections Liquidity - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.16% this week, with a total of 1,071.56 tons [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.1 percentage points in February 2026, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.0 percentage points [16] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate was 87% this week, with a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points [10] - The price of rebar increased by 2.84% this week, while the cement price index decreased by 0.27% [10] Real Estate Completion Chain - The price of titanium dioxide increased by 0.75% to 13,500 yuan per ton, with a gross profit margin of -1,901 yuan per ton [76] - The flat glass price rose by 0.37% to 1,175 yuan per ton, with an operating rate of 70.81% [76] Industrial Products Chain - The national PMI new orders index was reported at 48.60% in February [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.83% to 25,100 yuan per ton, with estimated profits of 7,728 yuan per ton [10] Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that the PB ratio of the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.53, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] - The overall steel industry gross profit was reported at 153 yuan per ton, reflecting a 12.0% increase week-on-week [10]

- The report primarily tracks the performance of various fund types, including active equity funds, passive index funds, bond funds, mixed bond funds, and REITs, with detailed weekly performance metrics provided for each category[36][40][42][44][46] - Active equity funds are categorized into industry theme funds, industry rotation funds, and industry balanced funds based on long-term holdings data, with the renewable energy theme showing the highest weekly net value increase of 4.22%[36][37][38] - Passive index funds, particularly those focused on renewable energy and battery themes, demonstrated strong weekly performance, with top funds achieving weekly returns exceeding 8%[40][41] - REITs indices are constructed to reflect market performance across various asset types, with the municipal facilities REITs index showing the highest weekly increase of 1.45%[46][47][49] - ESG funds are divided into thematic and general ESG categories, with environmental themes dominating the market. Weekly performance highlights include green energy and low-carbon economy funds achieving notable returns[62][68][70]

Macro Analysis - The financial data for early 2026 shows a positive trend, with corporate loans marginally improving but with limited growth, necessitating attention to the "crowding out effect" of debt replacement and the sustainability of increased demand from fiscal policies [2] - Real estate demand remains weak, with household loans continuing to be a drag on overall credit growth [2] - The structure of social financing has improved compared to 2025, with indirect financing contributing more significantly [2] Strategy Insights - In the event of overseas "stagflation," upstream resource products (oil, coal, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products) and essential consumer goods (food, beverages, pharmaceuticals) are recommended as core holdings [3] - Investment in hard technology sectors (semiconductors, aerospace, high-end equipment manufacturing, AI computing) and traditional/new infrastructure related to government spending is advised for portfolio flexibility [3] Bond Market Observations - CD rates have shown a downward trend, but there is a risk of rebound in the short term [4] - In February 2026, new RMB loans totaled 900 billion, remaining stable compared to 1.01 trillion in the same month last year, indicating a better credit growth situation [5] - The secondary market for REITs has continued to decline, with significant price fluctuations observed [6] Industry Research Banking Sector - February's financial data indicates stable loan growth, with a shift towards a "quantity-price balance" approach in credit activities, highlighting the importance of assessing marginal changes in credit structure [10] Electric and New Energy - The electric and environmental sectors are experiencing a shift towards high-quality performance, with energy security concerns driving market dynamics [11] Overseas TMT - The price of optical fibers has significantly increased due to AI construction demand, raw material shortages, and drone requirements, benefiting leading companies in the sector [12] Real Estate - In the first two months of 2026, new home sales in key cities dropped by 33% year-on-year, with second-hand home sales also declining slightly [13] Pharmaceuticals - The disposable glove industry is expected to see price increases, benefiting leading domestic companies due to cost control and demand growth [14] Petrochemicals - The geopolitical situation is impacting global energy supply chains, emphasizing the need for energy security and domestic production capabilities [15] Basic Chemicals - Rising oil prices are supporting agricultural input demand, with government policies highlighting food security as a national priority [16] Metals - Domestic copper concentrate inventories have reached a new low since May 2022, indicating tight supply conditions and a positive outlook for copper prices [17] Company Research Real Estate - The company reported a revenue of 19.273 billion yuan for 2025, a 12.2% increase, with a net profit of 655 million yuan, reflecting strong growth in professional services [18] Basic Chemicals - The company achieved a revenue of 3.577 billion yuan in 2025, a 10.03% increase, with a net profit growth of 49.32% [19] Automotive - The company is facing pressure on margins due to market volatility and competition, leading to revised profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [20] Overseas TMT - The company reported a revenue of $5.003 billion in 2025, a 12.4% increase, with a focus on expanding its presence in the optical interconnect field [21] Consumer Goods - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue for 2025 but plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there is a risk of a rebound in CD interest rates [1]. - It is most appropriate to use the 7D OMO interest rate as the benchmark for CD interest rates, while the marginal winning bid rates of repurchase and MLF can only be used as auxiliary evidence [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CD Interest Rate Rebound Risk - On February 6, 2026, the 6M and 1Y AAA - grade CD interest rates were 1.58% and 1.59% respectively, and as of March 13, they had decreased by 7.0bp and 5.3bp respectively. Currently, there is a short - term risk of a rebound in CD interest rates [1]. - From a valuation perspective, CD is currently overpriced relative to the policy rate. The spreads between 6M and 1Y AAA - grade CDs and 7D OMO are at their lowest levels in the past year and at the 5% and 3% percentile levels since early 2024 respectively. Even considering the policy rate cut expectation, the spreads are still only at the 34% and 28% percentile levels since early 2024 [2]. - From a narrative perspective, the market may start to hype up topics such as the reduction of outright repurchase volume and quarter - end liquidity fluctuations in the short - term. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan outright repurchase operation on March 16, with a net withdrawal of 100 billion yuan of base money on that day [2]. - From a trading perspective, when interest rates have declined significantly and the market is obviously optimistic, investors should be cautious rather than continue to chase the rise, especially in a volatile market this year [2]. CD Interest Rate Benchmark - Some investors believe that the marginal winning bid rates of outright repurchase and MLF should be used as the valuation benchmark for CD interest rates, but this method is not advisable. The central bank affects the medium - term liquidity level of the banking system through the volume of outright repurchase and MLF operations to regulate CD and other money market interest rates. The marginal winning bid rates of outright repurchase and MLF are the result of market - based bidding and are indirectly affected by CD interest rates. Using them as a benchmark may cause trouble for investors [3]. - The current market - oriented interest rate transmission chain in China is from the central bank's policy rate to the market benchmark rate and then to various financial market interest rates. CD interest rates have the attribute of a money market benchmark rate to some extent, so it is most appropriate to use the central bank's policy rate (7D OMO interest rate) as the benchmark, and the marginal winning bid rates of outright repurchase and MLF can only be used as auxiliary evidence. Broadly speaking, it is also appropriate to use the 7D OMO interest rate as the benchmark for the entire interest rate system [4]. - The medium - to long - term trend of CD interest rates can be regarded as the "micro - expression" of monetary policy, which is different from monetary policy signals. Monetary policy signals are actively released by the central bank, while "micro - expressions" are signs formed during the implementation of monetary policy but not necessarily intended by the central bank to be released [4].