Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism for copper prices to rise in the future due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - Trade conflicts are currently suppressing copper prices, but a rebound is expected as downstream demand recovers [1][4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 6.7% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 1.5% [2]. - As of October 17, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 681,000 tons, up 3.1% from the previous week [2]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory across the three major exchanges reached 589,000 tons, a 4.9% increase from September 30 [2]. Supply - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 840 yuan/ton this week [2]. - In July 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 138,000 tons, down 6.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year [2]. - Global copper concentrate production in July 2025 was 2.012 million tons, up 7.2% year-on-year and 4.7% month-on-month [2]. Smelting - The current TC (treatment charge) is -40.8 USD/ton, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - In September 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, down 4.3% month-on-month but up 11.6% year-on-year [3]. - In August, electrolytic copper imports increased by 6% year-on-year, while exports rose by 19% [3]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 3.4 percentage points week-on-week [3]. - The cable sector accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with the operating rate for cable enterprises at 61.91% as of October 16, 2025 [3]. - Air conditioning accounts for about 13% of domestic copper demand, with production expected to improve in the fourth quarter [3]. Futures - As of October 17, 2025, the active contract position for SHFE copper increased by 6.8% week-on-week, reaching 216,000 lots [4]. - The report notes that the current position is at the 64th percentile since 1995 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector, particularly for the "Big Three" oil companies in China [5]. Core Views - The report expresses a strong outlook on the resilience of oil prices for the "Big Three" oil companies, anticipating a recovery in natural gas consumption as the winter heating season approaches [4][9]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its global oil demand forecast, indicating a potential oversupply and inventory build-up risk in the oil market, which may keep oil prices under pressure in the short term [10][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Oil Price Resilience and Demand Forecast - The report highlights that geopolitical easing and demand concerns have driven oil prices down, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices reported at $61.34 and $57.25 per barrel, respectively, as of October 17, showing declines of 1.2% and 1.7% from the previous week [9][10]. - The IEA projects a modest increase in global oil demand of 700,000 barrels per day for 2025, a downward revision of 40,000 barrels per day from last month’s forecast, while global oil supply is expected to increase by 3 million barrels per day [10][12]. 2. Performance of "Big Three" Oil Companies - In the first half of 2025, the net profit declines for China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Sinopec, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) were -5.2%, -39.8%, and -12.8%, respectively, indicating that their performance is more resilient compared to international oil giants [2][12]. - The report notes that the "Big Three" are expected to enhance their production and reserves, with planned increases in oil and gas equivalent production of 1.6%, 1.5%, and 5.9% for CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC, respectively [2][12]. 3. Natural Gas Consumption Outlook - The report anticipates a cold winter in 2025, which is expected to boost natural gas consumption, with a gradual recovery in demand observed since Q2 2025 [3][22]. - The "Big Three" have seen a 3.2% year-on-year increase in natural gas sales in the first half of 2025, outpacing domestic demand growth, and are expected to benefit from ongoing market reforms that enhance pricing flexibility [3][29]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the "Big Three" oil companies and their associated oil service engineering firms, as well as leading companies in refining and chemical sectors, indicating a positive long-term investment outlook [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The supply-demand dynamics for lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) are marginally improving, with prices expected to continue rising due to strong demand recovery and tight supply conditions [1][3] - The domestic production capacity of LiPF6 is concentrated among a few companies, which are likely to benefit from price increases and improved profitability [2] - The lithium-ion battery materials sector is experiencing robust demand growth, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, indicating a broad demand outlook [3] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market operating rate for LiPF6 is 75.43%, with most manufacturers operating at full capacity, leading to a supply shortage [1] - As of October 17, 2025, LiPF6 prices have risen to 75,000 CNY/ton, marking a 16.3% increase from the previous week and a 20.0% increase since the beginning of the year [1] Production Capacity - China's LiPF6 production capacity stands at 442,900 tons/year, with effective capacity at 389,400 tons/year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.7% [2] - Major producers include Tianqi Lithium, Dongyue Group, and others, with significant expansions planned for 2025-2027 [2] Market Demand - The energy storage sector saw a cumulative bidding scale of 211.11 GWh from January to August 2025, with new installations reaching 21.9 GW/55.2 GWh in the first half of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 69.4% and 76.6% respectively [3] - In the electric vehicle sector, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units in the first half of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [3]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was +0.5%, up from +0.3% in the previous period[1] - Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure remained at +3.1%[1] - Government fund budget revenue showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.5%, improving from -1.4% previously[1] September Fiscal Performance - In September, general public budget revenue increased by 2.58% year-on-year, a recovery from the previous month[3] - Central government revenue grew by 3.47% year-on-year, while local government revenue increased by 1.96%[3] - Tax revenue in September rose by 8.66% year-on-year, marking a significant improvement[5] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic consumption tax increased by 3.83% year-on-year, with vehicle purchase tax rising by 8.53%[4] - Corporate income tax saw a year-on-year growth of 19.59%, although it was a decline from the previous month[5] - Personal income tax grew by 16.68% year-on-year, reflecting a strong performance[5] Government Fund Budget Insights - Government fund budget revenue in September improved to +5.6% year-on-year from -5.7%[22] - Cumulative progress for government fund budget revenue was 49.1%, below the five-year average of 54.4%[22] - Cumulative expenditure progress for government fund budgets was 60.0%, above the five-year average of 56.1%[22] Special Debt Issuance - By September 2025, the issuance of new local special bonds reached 3.68 trillion yuan, completing 83.6% of the annual plan[31] - The acceleration of fund activation post-special bond issuance is expected to improve liquidity and stabilize infrastructure investment growth[31]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a pullback this week, influenced by declining risk appetite and increased uncertainty in US-China relations, with the STAR 50 index dropping 6.2% and the Shanghai 50 index only 0.2% [1][11][20] - The overall market is still in a bull market phase, but may enter a wide fluctuation stage in the short term, with the current maximum drawdown being 4.01%, which is within historical levels [3][39][41] - Short-term focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term attention should be on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors [4][43][46] Group 2 - The market style this week favored value stocks, with large-cap value stocks increasing by 2.1%, while mid-cap growth stocks decreased by 5.8% [15][18] - In terms of industry performance, banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors performed relatively well, with respective increases of 4.9%, 4.2%, and 0.9% [15][70] - The TMT sector is expected to become a mid-term focus due to various catalysts, including the ongoing development of AI and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [46][48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints From October 13 - 17, 2025, the secondary - market prices of publicly - listed REITs in China continued to decline, and the trading enthusiasm in the market decreased compared to the previous period. Only new infrastructure - type REITs showed an increase in price this week. There were also significant differences in trading volume, turnover, and net inflow of main funds among different underlying asset types and individual REITs [1][2]. Summary by Directory Secondary Market Price Trends - **At the large - asset level**: The weighted REITs index closed at 181.3, with a weekly return of - 1.42%. Compared with other mainstream large - asset classes, the return ranking from high to low was: gold > US stocks > pure bonds > REITs > A - shares > convertible bonds > crude oil [1][11]. - **At the underlying - asset level**: Both equity - type and franchise - type REITs' secondary - market prices declined. Only new infrastructure - type REITs rose this week. The top three underlying asset types in terms of return were new infrastructure, ecological and environmental protection, and municipal facilities [17][19]. - **At the single - REIT level**: Among the 75 REITs, 7 rose and 68 fell. The top three in terms of increase were China Merchants Expressway REIT, Huatai - PineBridge Jiuzhoutong Pharmaceutical REIT, and Harvest China Power Construction Clean Energy REIT [24]. Transaction Volume and Turnover Rate - **At the underlying - asset level**: The total trading volume of REITs this week was 2.07 billion yuan. The water - conservancy facilities - type REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate, with an average of 0.92%. The top three in terms of trading volume were transportation infrastructure, consumer infrastructure, and affordable rental housing [26]. - **At the single - REIT level**: The performance of individual REITs in terms of trading volume and turnover rate continued to vary. The top three in terms of trading volume were CCB Zhongguancun REIT, CICC Xiamen Anju REIT, and China Asset Management Huarun Youchao REIT. The top three in terms of trading value were China Asset Management Kaide Commercial REIT, China Asset Management Huarun Commercial REIT, and CICC Xiamen Anju REIT [28]. Main - Fund Net Inflow and Block - Trading Situation - **Main - fund net - inflow situation**: The total net inflow of main funds this week was - 3.87 million yuan, indicating a decline in market trading enthusiasm. The top three underlying asset types in terms of net inflow were consumer infrastructure, affordable housing, and energy. The top three individual REITs in terms of net inflow were China Asset Management Kaide Commercial REIT, CICC Yinli Consumer REIT, and China Asset Management Huarun Youchao REIT [32]. - **Block - trading situation**: The total block - trading volume this week was 85.76 million yuan, an increase from the previous period. The highest single - day block - trading volume occurred on October 16, 2025, which was 34.8 million yuan. The top three individual REITs in terms of block - trading volume were Huaan Bailian Consumer REIT, Red - Earth Innovation Shenzhen Anju REIT, and AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT [33]. Primary Market Listed Projects As of October 17, 2025, there were 75 publicly - listed REITs in China, with a total issuance scale of 196.619 billion yuan. The transportation infrastructure - type REITs had the largest issuance scale, reaching 68.771 billion yuan, followed by the park infrastructure - type REITs with 31.835 billion yuan. No new REITs were listed this week [39][40]. Projects to be Listed There were 19 REITs in the pending - listing state, including 12 initial - offering REITs and 7 REITs for expansion. This week, the project status of E Fund Guangxi Beitou Expressway Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund was updated to "declared"; the project status of China Asset Management Huarun Youchao Rental Housing Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (expansion) was updated to "feedback received"; the project status of China Asset Management Huarun Commercial Asset Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (expansion) was updated to "accepted" [43].

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support local fiscal capacity and address outstanding debts[3] - The local government general debt limit for 2024 is set at 17.3 trillion yuan, with a special debt limit of 29.5 trillion yuan, and an additional 600 billion yuan for debt replacement over three years[3] - The new 500 billion yuan debt limit is expected to be issued quickly, potentially by the end of the year, to support infrastructure projects and debt resolution[5] Group 2: Economic Impact - The issuance of the 500 billion yuan debt is projected to stimulate social financing and improve liquidity in the market[5] - The advance allocation of 2026 local government debt limits allows for 31.2 trillion yuan in total, supporting major strategic projects and addressing hidden debts[6] - The fiscal deposits increased by 1.37 trillion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, indicating accelerated fiscal spending compared to 724.8 billion yuan in the same period of 2024[7] Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is currently experiencing a "weak stock, strong bond" dynamic due to external disturbances and profit-taking after significant stock gains[2] - The ongoing fiscal policies are expected to enhance market stability, especially around the time of the 20th Central Committee meeting[8] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and major project commencements not meeting expectations[9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Credit bond issuance volume increased month - on - month, and the credit spreads of various industries generally declined [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Issuance Statistics - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, a total of 379 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 433.329 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 206.54% [1][11] - In terms of issuance scale, 177 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 237.725 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 270.37%, accounting for 54.86% of the total credit bond issuance scale; 164 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 101.634 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 132.16%, accounting for 23.45%; 38 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 93.970 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 181.35%, accounting for 21.69% [1][11] - The average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.30 years, among which industrial bonds had an average issuance term of 1.86 years, urban investment bonds 2.87 years, and financial bonds 1.93 years [2][16] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.20%, among which industrial bonds had an average issuance coupon rate of 2.09%, urban investment bonds 2.37%, and financial bonds 1.94% [2][20] 3.1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Four credit bonds cancelled their issuance during the period [3][24] 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - The overall industry credit spreads declined. Among Shenwan primary industries, for AAA - rated industries, the largest upward spread was in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (8.2BP), and the largest downward spread was in electronics (9.8BP); for AA + - rated industries, the largest upward spread was in non - ferrous metals (2.9BP), and the largest downward spread was in electrical equipment (25.4BP); for AA - rated industries, the largest upward spread was in real estate (10.1BP), and the largest downward spread was in machinery (12.9BP) [3][26] - The credit spreads of coal and steel both declined. The credit spreads of AAA and AA + - rated coal declined by 1.7BP and 7.7BP respectively, and those of AAA and AA + - rated steel declined by 6.8BP and 6.3BP respectively [26] - The credit spreads of urban investment and non - urban investment bonds at all levels declined. The credit spreads of three - level urban investment bonds declined by 3.8BP, 4.7BP, and 4.4BP respectively, and those of three - level non - urban investment bonds declined by 5BP, 4.4BP, and 5.3BP respectively [27] - The credit spreads of state - owned enterprises and private enterprises both declined. The credit spreads of three - level central state - owned enterprises declined by 4.9BP, 3.1BP, and 7.6BP respectively, those of three - level local state - owned enterprises declined by 4.9BP, 4.5BP, and 5.3BP respectively, and the credit spreads of AAA and AA + - rated private enterprises declined by 7.9BP and 8BP respectively [27] - The regional urban investment credit spreads showed mixed trends. In terms of spread levels, for AAA - rated regions, the three regions with the highest credit spreads were Shaanxi, Liaoning, and Jilin; for AA + - rated regions, they were Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu; for AA - rated regions, they were Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Guangxi. In terms of month - on - month changes, for AAA - rated regions, the largest upward spread was in Shaanxi (8.8BP), and the largest downward spread was in Inner Mongolia (9.1BP); for AA + - rated regions, the largest downward spread was in Heilongjiang (9BP); for AA - rated regions, the largest upward spread was in Fujian (8.4BP), and the largest downward spread was in Yunnan (12.9BP) [28] 3.2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1457.824 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 70.45%. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Specifically, commercial bank bonds had a trading volume of 380.333 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 49.20%, accounting for 26.09% of the total credit bond trading volume; corporate bonds had a trading volume of 406.552 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 71.21%, accounting for 27.89%; medium - term notes had a trading volume of 361.073 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 103.74%, accounting for 24.77% [4][29] 3.2.3 Actively Traded Bonds in the Current Period - The top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume were selected for investors' reference [31]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Factor Performance Tracking Single Factor Performance - Factors with the best performance in the CSI 300 stock pool this week include the standard deviation of 5-day trading volume (2.12%), the proportion of downside volatility (1.78%), and the 5-day exponential moving average of trading volume (1.35%) [1][12] - Factors with the worst performance in the CSI 300 stock pool this week include the 5-day reversal (-3.60%), single-quarter total asset gross profit margin (-3.43%), and single-quarter ROA (-3.38%) [1][12] - Factors with the best performance in the CSI 500 stock pool this week include the inverse of the P/E ratio TTM (3.99%), the proportion of downside volatility (3.80%), and the P/E ratio factor (3.17%) [14] - Factors with the worst performance in the CSI 500 stock pool this week include the 5-day reversal (-1.95%), 5-day average turnover rate (-1.17%), and the 5-day exponential moving average of trading volume (-1.15%) [14] - Factors with the best performance in the liquidity 1500 stock pool this week include the correlation between intraday volatility and trading volume (2.27%), the proportion of downside volatility (1.80%), and the P/B ratio factor (1.51%) [16] - Factors with the worst performance in the liquidity 1500 stock pool this week include single-quarter EPS (-1.36%), standardized unexpected income (-1.29%), and the 5-day reversal (-1.25%) [16] Major Factor Performance - In the overall market stock pool this week, the momentum factor achieved a positive return of 0.43%, indicating a momentum effect in the market [18] - The Beta factor, market capitalization factor, and non-linear market capitalization factor achieved negative returns of -1.50%, -0.91%, and -0.54%, respectively, indicating a small-cap style in the market [18] Industry Factor Performance - This week, fundamental factors showed varied performance across industries. The net asset growth rate factor, net profit growth rate factor, net asset per share factor, and operating profit per share TTM factor consistently achieved positive returns in the non-bank financial industry [22] - Among valuation factors, the BP factor and EP factor consistently achieved positive returns in the home appliances, comprehensive, and non-bank financial industries [22] - The residual volatility factor and liquidity factor showed significant positive returns in the coal industry [22] - In terms of market capitalization style, the food and beverage, beauty care, and banking industries showed a significant large-cap style this week [22] Factor Backtesting Results CSI 300 Stock Pool - Standard deviation of 5-day trading volume: 2.12% (1 week), 3.52% (1 month), 8.21% (1 year), 19.07% (10 years) [13] - Proportion of downside volatility: 1.78% (1 week), 0.41% (1 month), -5.44% (1 year), 25.57% (10 years) [13] - 5-day exponential moving average of trading volume: 1.35% (1 week), 1.19% (1 month), 3.70% (1 year), 5.13% (10 years) [13] CSI 500 Stock Pool - Inverse of P/E ratio TTM: 3.99% (1 week), 4.80% (1 month), -5.74% (1 year), 48.40% (10 years) [15] - Proportion of downside volatility: 3.80% (1 week), 1.56% (1 month), -3.09% (1 year), 107.51% (10 years) [15] - P/E ratio factor: 3.17% (1 week), 2.58% (1 month), -4.94% (1 year), 26.11% (10 years) [15] Liquidity 1500 Stock Pool - Correlation between intraday volatility and trading volume: 2.27% (1 week), 3.18% (1 month), 2.59% (1 year), 152.82% (10 years) [17] - Proportion of downside volatility: 1.80% (1 week), 2.97% (1 month), 5.48% (1 year), 114.63% (10 years) [17] - P/B ratio factor: 1.51% (1 week), 3.69% (1 month), -5.28% (1 year), 74.59% (10 years) [17] Portfolio Tracking PB-ROE-50 Portfolio Performance - This week, the PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved positive excess returns in the CSI 500 stock pool: 0.15% [24] - In the CSI 800 stock pool, the PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved excess returns of -1.50% [24] - In the overall market stock pool, the PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved excess returns of -2.52% [24] Institutional Research Portfolio Tracking - This week, the public fund research stock selection strategy and private fund research tracking strategy achieved negative excess returns relative to the CSI 800: -0.94% and -4.83%, respectively [26] Block Trade Portfolio Tracking - This week, the block trade portfolio achieved positive excess returns relative to the CSI All Share Index: 1.56% [30] Private Placement Portfolio Tracking - This week, the private placement portfolio achieved positive excess returns relative to the CSI All Share Index: 1.86% [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the week from October 13 to October 17, 2025, both the convertible bond and equity markets experienced significant adjustments. The convertible bond market underperformed the equity market. In the long - term, convertible bonds remain relatively high - quality assets due to the pattern where demand exceeds supply, but the current valuation level is generally high, so structural optimization is needed [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 - From October 13 to October 17, 2025 (5 trading days), the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell by 2.3% (0% last week), and the CSI All - Share Index dropped by 3.5% (-0.3% last week). Since the beginning of 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by 14.4%, and the CSI All - Share Index has increased by 19.0%. The convertible bond market underperformed the equity market [1]. - By rating, high - rated bonds (AA + and above), medium - rated bonds (AA), and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) fell by 1.73%, 3.41%, and 3.51% respectively this week, with high - rated bonds having the smallest decline [1]. - By convertible bond size, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance > 5 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 500 million and 5 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance < 500 million yuan) fell by 1.01%, 2.80%, and 3.98% respectively this week, with large - scale convertible bonds having the smallest decline [1]. - By conversion parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value > 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 130 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 70 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value < 70 yuan) fell by 7.32%, 3.15%, 2.44%, 1.96%, and 1.33% respectively this week, with ultra - high - parity bonds having the largest decline [2]. Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of October 17, 2025, there were 413 outstanding convertible bonds (420 at the end of last week), with a balance of 566.693 billion yuan (587.832 billion yuan at the end of last week). The average convertible bond price was 130.61 yuan (132.67 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 98.0%. The average convertible bond parity was 103.82 yuan (105.35 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 93.4%. The average conversion premium rate was 27.7% (27.6% at the end of last week), with a percentile of 56.5%. The conversion premium rate of medium - parity convertible bonds (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan) was 28.8%, higher than the median (20.4%) of medium - parity convertible bonds since 2018 [3]. Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - In the long - term, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets due to the pattern where demand exceeds supply. However, the current valuation level is generally high, so structural optimization is needed [4]. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of increase this week include Huicheng Convertible Bond, Tongguang Convertible Bond, Liugong Convertible Bond 2, etc. For example, Huicheng Convertible Bond had a convertible bond increase of 20.93% and a underlying stock increase of 20.08% [24].