Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the industry, indicating a potential recovery in the sector due to recent tariff negotiations [4]. Core Insights - The recent US-China trade talks have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating, which is expected to improve market sentiment and alleviate long-term demand pressures [2][3]. - The reduction in tariffs is anticipated to enhance the supply-demand dynamics within the domestic chemical industry, providing a buffer period of 90 days for certain tariffs, which may lead to improved industry sentiment [2]. - The report emphasizes that the long-term impact of tariffs on the chemical industry is more about downstream demand transmission through the industrial chain, suggesting a gradual recovery in export proportions [2][3]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On May 12, substantial progress was made in US-China trade talks, resulting in the cancellation of 91% of additional tariffs by the US and corresponding actions by China [2]. Investment Logic - The easing of tariffs is expected to improve market expectations and alleviate long-term demand pressures, with a notable increase in the proportion of chemical products exported to the US [2]. - The report highlights that the domestic chemical industry has recently undergone a significant capacity release cycle, which has raised industry sentiment [2]. - The long-term trend indicates a continuous push towards domestic production and supply chain security, with significant advancements in material fields over the past seven years [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors that have been significantly impacted by US tariffs, such as the electronics, textiles, and tire industries, which may see recovery due to tariff relief [4]. - It also suggests monitoring the propane dehydrogenation industry, which has benefited from reduced tariff costs, despite ongoing supply pressures [4]. - The report encourages attention to opportunities in domestic substitution as the industry continues to push for higher-end material production [4].

2025/5/12 1 图：生猪养殖周期示意图 图：猪价指引产能导致周期往复 2 数据来源：国金证券研究所整理 • 生产特性：生猪的生长速度无法加快，从能繁母猪配种开始生产需要10个月的时间，通过后备时间更长；而市面上 补充后备母猪为50-80KG，需要饲养至120KG以上才可以开始配种，猪价指导生产，盈利增产/亏损减产，现今亦然 如此而养殖户在决策上存在一定的时滞性， • 时滞性的来源： • 1.对后市的预期（预期乐观⬆/悲观⬇） • 2.养殖户手中的资金(宽松⬆/紧张⬇) • 以上特点使得盈利情况指引未来产能方向，亏损时间越长产能去化越充分，非瘟前每一轮周期上行多在2年左右。 图：生猪繁育体系示意图 数据来源：国金证券研究所整理 3 图：历史猪周期总结（元/公斤） | | 周期跨度 | 上行区间 | 下行区间 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 最高价 | 最低价 | 波动幅度 | | 第一轮 | 2006/5-2010/4 | 2006/5-2008/3 | 2008/4-2010/4 | 17.45 | 6.76 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the new tobacco products industry, with a focus on the growth potential of smokeless tobacco and nicotine pouch segments [8]. Core Insights - The global market for new tobacco products is projected to reach $86.96 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1%, with significant contributions from smokeless tobacco, vaping, heated tobacco, and oral nicotine products [2][17]. - The report highlights the strong performance of smokeless tobacco and nicotine pouch products, with the latter expected to grow by 51.0% year-on-year in 2024 [2][3]. - The market dynamics are shifting, with North America, Western Europe, and Asia-Pacific regions showing robust growth, particularly in the U.S., which remains the largest market for new tobacco products [23][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Market Overview - The new tobacco products market is expanding steadily, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.8% from 2017 to 2024 [17]. - By 2025, the market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projections indicating increases across all product categories [2][17]. 2. Nicotine Pouches - The global nicotine pouch market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of 21.2 billion pouches in 2024, marking a 37% increase year-on-year [3]. - Major tobacco companies dominate this segment, with significant market shares held by PMI, BAT, and Altria [3]. 3. Philip Morris International (PMI) - PMI's revenue from new tobacco products is expected to reach $14.66 billion in 2024, a 17.0% increase, with heated tobacco product shipments growing by 11.5% [4]. - The number of PMI's new tobacco users has reached 32.2 million, with a 72.0% replacement rate of traditional cigarette consumers [4]. 4. British American Tobacco (BAT) - BAT is accelerating its "smokeless strategy," with its modern oral tobacco segment showing a 47% revenue increase [5]. - The launch of the Glo Hilo product is anticipated to disrupt the current heated tobacco market dynamics [5]. 5. Altria - Altria's NJOY brand has shown significant growth, with a 15.3% increase in sales volume in 2024 [6]. - The on! brand also experienced a 40.2% increase in sales, indicating a strong performance in the oral nicotine segment [6]. 6. Imperial Brands - Imperial Brands reported a 24.2% revenue increase in its new tobacco segment, driven by strong performance in Europe [6]. - The company is actively launching new products to cater to changing consumer preferences [6]. 7. Japan Tobacco - Japan Tobacco's new tobacco revenue is projected to reach 989 billion yen in 2024, reflecting a 21.1% increase [7]. - The Ploom brand is expanding its presence in emerging markets, contributing to overall sales growth [7]. 8. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Smoore International, which is well-positioned to benefit from the expanding vaping market and partnerships with major players like BAT and NJOY [8].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts all increased last week, with the CSI 300 index futures rising the most by 2.27%, while the CSI 500 index futures saw the largest decline of 1.68% [3][11] - The average trading volume of the four major index futures contracts increased compared to the previous week, with the IF contract seeing the largest increase of 35.46% [3][11] - The annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -7.15%, -12.46%, -14.21%, and -5.19% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the basis for IF and IH while deepening for IC and IM [3][11] Group 2: Cross-Period Price Differences - As of last Friday, the cross-period price difference rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were at the 94.10%, 98.80%, 99.20%, and 88.20% percentiles since 2019 [4][12] - There are arbitrage opportunities for the IF current contract, with a required basis rate of 0.33% for a positive arbitrage and -0.48% for a negative arbitrage over the next 5 trading days [4][12] - The estimated dividend points for the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices are 22.15, 44.10, 16.55, and 36.81 respectively [4][12] Group 3: Market Expectations - The basis changes are influenced by dividends and investor trading sentiment, with expectations of significant fluctuations in basis due to large-scale buying and selling by major funds [4][13] - Recent financial policies, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, are expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [4][13] - Current basis levels are at historical lows, and the positive cross-period price difference indicates a high cost-performance ratio for using near-month contracts for hedging [4][13] Group 4: Recent Sell-Side Strategy Insights - Eight brokerages believe that ongoing policies will support the capital market, boosting market confidence and reducing risk premiums [5][49] - Five brokerages expect that the technology growth trend is likely to continue in the short term, with small-cap growth stocks performing prominently [5][49] - There is a consensus among brokerages regarding the positive outlook for sectors such as technology, new consumption, military industry, and banking [5][49]

Group 1: ETF Rotation Strategy Performance - The ETF rotation strategy, constructed using GBDT+NN machine learning factors, has shown excellent out-of-sample performance with an IC value of 44.48% and a long position excess return of 0.73% last week [3][14] - The annualized excess return of the strategy is 11.88%, with a maximum drawdown of 17.31% [17][18] - Recent performance includes an excess return of 0.20% last week, 1.64% for the month, and 0.35% year-to-date [18][20] Group 2: High-Frequency Factor Overview - Various high-frequency factors have demonstrated strong overall performance, with the price range factor showing a long position excess return of 4.93% year-to-date, while the regret avoidance factor has underperformed with a return of 0.27% [4][22] - The price range factor measures the activity level of stocks within different price ranges, indicating investor expectations for future price movements [5][25] - The regret avoidance factor reflects the impact of investor emotions on stock price expectations, showing stable out-of-sample excess returns [5][37] Group 3: High-Frequency and Fundamental Factor Combination - A combined strategy of high-frequency and fundamental factors has been developed, yielding an annualized excess return of 14.76% with a maximum drawdown of 4.52% [6][59] - The strategy has shown stable out-of-sample performance, with a year-to-date excess return of 3.74% [60] - The integration of fundamental factors with high-frequency factors has improved the performance metrics of the strategy [57][59]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the chemical industry, with a focus on defensive strategies and specific sectors such as compound fertilizers and domestic substitutes [2]. Core Insights - The chemical market has shown resilience, with the Shenwan Chemical Index rising by 2.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.07% [10]. - Key themes in the market include strong performance in military and robotics materials, while companies with poor Q1 results are under pressure [1]. - The report highlights the impact of tariff negotiations, particularly between the US and other countries, affecting trade dynamics and inventory levels in the US [1]. - AI demand is robust, with leading companies like AMD reporting significant revenue growth, indicating a strong market for AI-related products [2]. - OPEC's decision to increase production raises questions about the sustainability of oil prices, with mixed signals from supply and demand factors [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Brent crude futures averaged $62.05 per barrel, down 2.02% week-on-week, while WTI futures averaged $59.04 per barrel, down 1% [10]. - The basic chemical sector outperformed the index, while the petrochemical sector lagged [10]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included fluorochemicals (5.02% increase), while coal chemicals saw a slight decline [11]. Recent Views from the Chemical Team - The tire industry is experiencing a decline in production rates, with full steel tire operating rates at 44.8%, down 11.5% week-on-week [27]. - The sweetener market, particularly for sucralose, is expected to improve due to reduced supply and increased demand from the beverage industry [28]. - The dye market remains stable, with prices holding steady despite weak demand from the textile industry [30]. Key Events - Significant diplomatic meetings are scheduled, including high-level economic dialogues between China and the US, which may influence trade policies [3]. - OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day, raising concerns about compliance among member countries [3]. Price Movements - The report provides detailed price movements for various chemical products, indicating fluctuations and trends in the market [26][29]. - Specific products like DAP and titanium dioxide are experiencing price adjustments due to supply and demand dynamics [31][32]. Future Outlook - The report suggests a cautious approach to investment, focusing on sectors with defensive characteristics and potential for growth amid market volatility [2].

一、美国港口进口与预期同时回落。美国洛杉矶港口船舶停靠数量下滑至 16 艘，4 月均值为 21.3 艘，港口集装箱进 口吞吐量环比下滑-124%，已经连续两周大幅下滑，当周同比增速下滑至 32.1%，4 月末同比为 56%。 二、韩国前 10 日出口大幅下滑。韩国 5 月前 10 日出口同比增速从 13.4%大幅下滑至-23.8%，同比增速创新 2021 年 以来新低。 三、中国出口维持韧性。 风险提示 四、价格下行压力延续。按照模型估算，GDP 平减指数或下滑至-0.8%左右。5 月第一周，大宗商品价格进一步下滑， 焦煤、焦炭、螺纹钢、水泥价格分别下滑 5.7%、6%、2.4%、2.4%。按照目前的高频数据估算，5 月 PPI 同比增速或进 一步下行至-3.2%左右。 五、服务业带动 GDP 增速小幅企稳，5 月初按照高频数据估算，预计 GDP 同比增速回升至 5.1%。 美国国内需求持续走弱，带动全球需求下行，拖累中国出口增速 受全球需求和国内需求不足等因素影响，国内价格下行压力加大，通缩持续 在外需走弱时，关注行业需求变化，国内部分行业产能利用率或面临下行压力 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The central bank unexpectedly advanced the timing of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, implementing a package of ten monetary policy measures to address global economic uncertainties and trade tensions[12] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, contributing to a decline in short-term bond yields[12] - The yield on 1-year government bonds has dropped to 1.4%, while the 10-year government bond yield stabilized around 1.63%[12] Group 2: Market Behavior and Trends - Despite a significant decline in yields, buying interest in medium and short-term bonds remains restrained, with trading volumes not reflecting the expected demand[15] - The proportion of credit bonds yielding below 2.2% has risen to 77%, indicating a lack of attractive investment opportunities in the current market[36] - The trading volume of 3-year and shorter credit bonds has decreased, with a notable drop in weekly turnover rates[23] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on 2-year credit bonds, particularly high-quality city investment bonds rated AA(2), to ensure a balanced yield amidst market volatility[50] - The strategy of extending duration in credit bonds is limited due to low yields and the risk of capital loss, with many investors preferring to maintain short-duration positions[6] - The yield on 4 to 5-year secondary capital bonds has fallen below the upper limit of 10-year government bonds plus 30 basis points, raising concerns about low risk-reward ratios[49]

行业点评 本周 A 股地产、港股地产均上涨、港股物业下跌。本周（5.3-5.9）申万 A 股房地产板块涨跌幅为+0.4%，在各板 块中位列第 31；恒生港股房地产板块涨跌幅为+1%，在各板块中位列第 7。本周恒生物业服务及管理指数涨跌幅为- 2.2%，恒生中国企业指数涨跌幅为+0.9%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为+2%；物业指数对恒生中国企业指数和沪深 300 的相 对收益分别为-3.1%和-4.2%。 本周五上海四批次土拍：杨浦及松江地块溢价率超 20%。本周（5.3-5.9）全国 300 城宅地成交建面 451 万㎡，单 周环比-29%，单周同比-38%，平均溢价率 8%。2025 年初至今，全国 300 城累计宅地成交建面 12017 万㎡，累计同比- 0.2%；年初至今，绿城中国、中海地产、保利发展、滨江集团、建发房产的权益拿地金额位居行业前五。 本周假期因素新房销售环比下滑，同比维持正增，小阳春过后景气度延续承压。本周（5.3-5.9）47 个城市商品 房成交合计 263 万平米，周环比-20%，周同比+9%。其中：一线城市周环比-30%，周同比+21%；二线城市周环比-28%， 周同比-1%；三四 ...

Electronic Sector - TSMC's April revenue exceeded expectations, reaching NT$349.6 billion, with a month-on-month growth of 22.2% and a year-on-year growth of 48.1%, marking a historical monthly high [1] - Cumulative revenue for January to April was NT$1,188.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43.5%, also a record for the same period [1] - The growth is driven by AI demand and preemptive stocking by clients concerned about tariff impacts [1] - The electronic sector's Q1 2025 revenue was NT$839.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with net profit of NT$35.5 billion, up 31.2% [1] - The semiconductor materials sector showed strong performance, benefiting from increased wafer fab utilization and accelerated domestic substitution [1] Communication Sector - Leading optical module companies reported Q1 performance exceeding expectations, with revenue and profit both achieving high growth [2] - The market demand for optical modules is expected to further release due to positive signals from policy and ongoing high capital expenditures from cloud vendors [2] - Major cloud companies' capital expenditures increased significantly, with Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon's spending rising 69% to US$70.6 billion [2] Computer Sector - Google DeepMind released an updated version of Gemini 2.5 Pro, enhancing programming capabilities, allowing users to generate complete web applications and games from a single prompt [3] - The AI industry chain is expected to maintain high prosperity, with strong growth in sectors like intelligent driving and software outsourcing [3] - The impact of tariff policies on computer companies' fundamentals is minimal, with domestic substitution and self-control sectors likely to benefit [3] Media and Internet Sector - Continuous tracking of AI application landing situations is recommended, with a focus on companies with upward marginal fundamentals and M&A themes [4] - The digital media sector has shown strong performance recently, while the film and television sector is expected to decline due to the off-season [4] - Companies like Tencent and Kuaishou are advancing in AI-generated content, indicating a growing potential for AI applications in media [4]