1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of refined nickel and stainless steel is oscillating at a high level. The core contradiction of nickel lies in the continuous tug - of - war between "strong expectations" and "high inventory + weak reality", while that of stainless steel is the game between raw material cost support and weak downstream demand [1][3][4]. - The short - term nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 138,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton, and stainless steel will maintain a high - level oscillation [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 20, 2026, the main contract 2602 of Shanghai nickel opened at 142,500 yuan/ton and closed at 141,360 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.36% compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 695,146 (-254,226) lots, and the open interest was 79,005 (-4,205) lots. It showed a trend of wide - range oscillation after a high opening and a decline in the late session, affected by macro - sentiment, supply - demand expectations, and external market linkage. In December 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 23,394 tons, a month - on - month increase of 85% and a year - on - year increase of 24%. Other unwrought non - alloy nickel imports were 16,177 tons, accounting for 69% of refined nickel imports [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The sentiment in the nickel ore market heated up. The tender price of Philippine mines jumped significantly, and the domestic mainstream grade quotation quickly followed. The CIF quotation of 1.4% grade nickel ore has risen to about 53 US dollars. The Indonesian market is temporarily stable after the previous benchmark price adjustment, and the official benchmark price in February is expected to increase by about 3 US dollars [1][2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 150,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premium of each brand of refined nickel was slightly adjusted. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 400 yuan/ton to 8,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 41,478 (-320) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 284,736 (-972) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to the possible recurrence of Indonesia's nickel ore policy and the rainy season in Indonesia in the first quarter, the nickel cost is supported to run at a high level. It is expected that the short - term nickel price will oscillate in the range of 138,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's quota, changes in spot premium, and the recovery rhythm of stainless steel demand [3]. - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 20, 2026, the main contract 2603 of stainless steel opened at 14,300 yuan/ton and closed at 14,345 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 296,762 (+9,074) lots, and the open interest was 145,198 (-4,171) lots. It followed the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a trend of rising first and then falling and closing up. The core contradiction lies in the game between raw material cost support and weak downstream demand, and it is also affected by macro - sentiment and inventory pattern [3][4]. - **Spot**: Downstream demand is weak as it is the pre - Spring Festival ending stage. High prices suppress procurement, and the inventory digestion rhythm slows down. The quotations of traders are slightly adjusted after rising with the futures market. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 14,350 (+50) yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market is 14,250 (+100) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 85 to 285 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,028.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - In the short term, the high inventory and weak spot demand form a long - short contradiction with the rising cost and macro - policies. It is expected that stainless steel will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's mining policy, the recovery rhythm of downstream demand, and inventory changes [4]. - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral; medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral; medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fuel oil market shows a pattern of strong in the East and weak in the West, and the widening of the East - West spread will open the arbitrage window, leading to an increase in arbitrage cargo volume, which has potential suppression on the Asia - Pacific and domestic markets [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 1.72% at 2,512 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.23% at 3,078 yuan/ton [1] - The Iran situation is temporarily under control, with no impact on oil supply, the geopolitical premium has declined, and the cost - side drive for FU and LU prices is weak [1] - For high - sulfur fuel oil, in the short term, attention should be paid to the drag of the decline in the cracking spread in the U.S. Gulf on the Asia - Pacific and domestic markets and the potential increase in downstream refinery demand; the Iran situation still has uncertainties and may repeatedly disturb the market [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall contradictions and drivers are limited. With the changes in the device status of Azul and Dangote refineries, the shipment volumes of Kuwait and Nigeria have rebounded, especially Kuwait's high shipment volume in January, which will bring some local pressure [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market situation is characterized by weak reality and strong expectations, with high capital sentiment [1]. - In the cost - end, the US has postponed military operations against Iran, causing crude oil prices to decline, but potential risks remain [1]. - For PX, the PXN was 331 dollars/ton (with a 0 - dollar/ton change compared to the previous period). The fundamentals are weakening, but the medium - term expectation is still good [1]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is - 63 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee is 348 yuan/ton. In the short term, it is under pressure due to weak demand, but in the long - term, the processing fee is expected to gradually improve [1]. - The polyester start - up rate is 88.3% (a 2.5% decrease compared to the previous period). The polyester load will accelerate its decline as the Spring Festival maintenance plans are implemented [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit is 8 yuan/ton (a 24 - yuan/ton decrease compared to the previous period), and the market is mainly in a state of waiting and digestion [2]. - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is 552 yuan/ton, and the processing fee has been slightly repaired [2]. - In terms of strategies, for single - side trading, PX/PTA/PF/PR are bullish in the short - term under increased capital positions. In the medium - term, buy on dips after a pullback for hedging. For cross - variety trading, go long on PTA and short on MEG [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][12] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [14][18] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [20][22] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA loads in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX loads in China and Asia [23][26][28] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [33][35][36] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profits [43][45][53] 3.7 PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [67][71][74] 3.8 PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][91]

Industry Overview Middle - View Events - In the production industry, Shanghai released the Action Plan for Strengthening the Linkage between Futures and Spot Markets to Enhance the Competitiveness of Non - ferrous Metal Commodities, aiming to improve resource allocation and global pricing influence [1]. - In the service industry, on January 20, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development issued a notice to support urban renewal, and six departments including the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced tax incentives for community - based family services from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [2]. Industry Data Upstream - In the chemical industry, the price of natural rubber declined slightly; in agriculture, the prices of eggs and pork continued to rise; in the non - ferrous metal industry, the prices of aluminum and copper decreased slightly [3]. Middle - stream - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of PX and urea were at a high level, while the operating rate of PTA remained low; in the energy industry, the coal consumption of power plants was at a low level [4]. Downstream - In the real estate industry, the sales of commercial housing in second - tier cities increased seasonally; in the service industry, the number of domestic flights decreased slightly [5]. Key Industry Price Indexes | Industry | Index Name | Price on 1/20 | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2264.3 yuan/ton | 0.19% | | | Spot price of eggs | 7.9 yuan/kg | 3.70% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8724.0 yuan/ton | 1.09% | | | Spot price of cotton | 15864.2 yuan/ton | - 0.45% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.5 yuan/kg | 2.21% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of copper | 100660.0 yuan/ton | - 1.70% | | | Spot price of zinc | 24324.0 yuan/ton | 0.06% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 23700.0 yuan/ton | - 2.50% | | | Spot price of nickel | 145633.3 yuan/ton | - 0.74% | | Black metals | Spot price of aluminum | 17081.3 yuan/ton | - 1.41% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3215.3 yuan/ton | - 0.99% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 824.4 yuan/ton | - 1.77% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3465.0 yuan/ton | - 0.93% | | Non - metals | Spot price of glass | 12.9 yuan/square meter | - 0.23% | | | Spot price of natural rubber | 15475.0 yuan/ton | - 2.47% | | | China Plastics City price index | 776.1 | 0.86% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 59.3 dollars/barrel | - 0.27% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 63.8 dollars/barrel | - 0.17% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3526.0 yuan/ton | - 1.18% | | | Coal price | 805.0 yuan/ton | 1.13% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 5009.3 yuan/ton | - 1.94% | | | Spot price of polyethylene | 6810.0 yuan/ton | 0.54% | | | Spot price of urea | 1767.5 yuan/ton | 1.14% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1204.3 yuan/ton | - 0.82% | | Real estate | Cement price index: national | 134.5 | - 0.30% | | | Building materials composite index | 115.3 points | - 0.41% | | | Concrete price index: national index | 90.2 points | - 0.25% | [34]

1. Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; no suggestions for inter - period and cross - variety investments [3] 2. Core View - The PDH device maintenance is being implemented, and the supply - demand structure has slightly improved. However, due to the easing of geopolitical disturbances, the oil price has fallen from its high. In the short term, the supply - demand fundamentals and the cost side resonate. Attention should be paid to the upstream PDH maintenance dynamics and the cost - side propane changes [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 5963 yuan/ton (- 72), the spot price in East China is 6325 yuan/ton (+ 0), and in North China is 6155 yuan/ton (+ 10). The basis in East China is 362 yuan/ton (+ 72), and in Shandong is 192 yuan/ton (+ 82). The operating rate is 75% (- 1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 247 US dollars/ton (- 5), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 73 US dollars/ton (- 7), the import profit is - 294 yuan/ton (+ 44), and the in - plant inventory is 46270 tons (+ 1580) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 32% (- 5.84%), and the production profit is - 145 yuan/ton (- 20); for propylene oxide, the operating rate is 72% (- 1%), and the production profit is 186 yuan/ton (+ 70); for n - butanol, the operating rate is 87% (+ 4%), and the production profit is 672 yuan/ton (+ 44); for octanol, the operating rate is 94% (+ 5%), and the production profit is 696 yuan/ton (- 8); for acrylic acid, the operating rate is 82% (- 5%), and the production profit is 159 yuan/ton (+ 0); for acrylonitrile, the operating rate is 78% (- 1%), and the production profit is - 1470 yuan/ton (- 6); for phenol - acetone, the operating rate is 89% (+ 4%), and the production profit is - 919 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply side**: PDH device maintenance information continues to be released. Two 900,000 - ton PDH devices of Jinneng Phase II and Wanhua Penglai are under maintenance, and a 1,000,000 - ton/year PDH device of Fujian Meide is expected to stop for a week. The operating rate of PDH devices has dropped significantly, and the spot market is tight. The expectation of PDH device maintenance in South China is increasing, and the supply pressure in the propylene market is expected to be alleviated [2] - **Demand side**: The downstream rigid demand support continues. However, after the propylene price rises to a high level, the downstream demand may be limited due to profit compression. The operating rate of PP powder has dropped significantly due to device maintenance, while the PP devices of Jingbo Petrochemical and Lihezhixin have restarted, so the demand for propylene from the PP end still exists. After the price of propylene oxide rises and then falls rapidly, the PO end's willingness to purchase raw materials may decrease. The profit of butanol and octanol is good, and new devices are put into operation or the load is increased, so the support for propylene is strong [2] - **Cost side**: The international oil price has fallen from its high and is oscillating due to the easing of the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the propane price has declined. The cost support of propylene raw materials is gradually weakening. In addition, new factory - warehouse warehouse receipts (with a discount of 100) have appeared in South China, and the futures market needs to offer a more appropriate discount, so the futures market is under pressure [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. Pay attention to the upstream PDH maintenance dynamics and the cost - side propane changes [3] - **Inter - period**: No suggestions [3] - **Cross - variety**: No suggestions [3] 3.4 Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant charts include the closing price of the main propylene contract, the propylene basis in East China, the propylene basis in Shandong, the price difference between propylene 03 - 04 contracts, the price difference between PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][6][11][12][14] 3.5 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant charts involve the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate, the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [5][18][20][30][31] 3.6 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant charts cover the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [5][39][40][45][52][53][56][60] 3.7 Propylene Inventory - Relevant charts are the propylene in - plant inventory and the PP powder in - plant inventory [5][63]

流动性日报 | 2026-01-21 市场流动性概况 2026-01-20，股指板块成交9734.06亿元，较上一交易日变动+17.99%；持仓金额16750.91亿元，较上一交易日变动 +1.97%；成交持仓比为57.39%。 国债板块成交3325.88亿元，较上一交易日变动+27.71%；持仓金额8346.97亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.93%；成交 持仓比为39.59%。 能源化工板块成交4214.43亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.41%；持仓金额4639.26亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.21%；成 交持仓比为87.10%。 农产品板块成交2610.50亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.51%；持仓金额6078.75亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.12%；成 交持仓比为40.04%。 黑色建材板块成交2164.95亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.77%；持仓金额3255.33亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.79%；成 交持仓比为59.60%。 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 流动性日报 基本金属板块成交8280.16亿元，较上一交易日变动-12.77%；持仓金额7685.11亿元， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Options: Sell Put [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House last week affected the market's outlook for non - ferrous metals demand. The copper price was also impacted, but the decline was relatively limited. Given the high copper price, weak downstream demand, and obvious inventory accumulation, the copper price may enter a temporary shock pattern, with an expected shock range of 99,500 yuan/ton to 110,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 20, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,230 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 99,930 yuan/ton, a 1.29% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 280 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 150 yuan, a 30 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 100,270 - 101,180 yuan/ton. The main contract of copper futures first rose and then fell in the morning. The current high inventory outflow will suppress the premium, and downstream buyers only purchase on - demand at high copper prices. The spot is expected to maintain a discount pattern [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts starting from the close of trading on January 22, 2026. Geopolitically, Trump mentioned alternative measures for tariffs if the current tools are restricted, and the US Supreme Court has not ruled on Trump's tariff - related matters. Canada's military has simulated a US military invasion [3]. 3.2.2 Mining End - In November 2025, Peru's copper production decreased by 11.2% year - on - year to 216,152 metric tons. From January to November, the cumulative copper production increased by 1.6% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 2.5 million tons. It is expected that Peru's copper production will only slightly increase to about 2.8 million tons in 2025, showing long - term growth challenges [4]. 3.2.3 Smelting and Imports - In December 2025, China's imports of scrap copper were 238,976.87 tons, a 14.83% increase from the previous month and a 9.90% increase year - on - year. Japan and Thailand were the top two sources of imports [4]. 3.2.4 Consumption - Last week, the copper price fluctuated narrowly. Due to the approaching month - end, downstream consumption had limited improvement. Some processing enterprises rushed to export, and the market demand was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises mainly made on - demand purchases at low prices [5]. 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,850 tons to 156,300 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons. On January 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Copper Price and Basis Data - The table provides data on SMM 1 copper (premium copper, flat - water copper, wet - process copper), Yangshan premium, LME (0 - 3), inventory (LME, SHFE, COMEX), warehouse receipts (SHFE, LME cancellation ratio), arbitrage (CU05 - CU02, CU03 - CU02), and import profit, as well as the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) from different time points (January 21, 2026; January 20, 2026; January 14, 2026; December 22, 2025) [24][25][26][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On January 20, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures price rose, with the main contract 2605 closing at 160,500 yuan/ton, up 8.99% from the previous settlement price. The price increase was driven by supply - side interference expectations in the lithium ore market and continued demand for export tax - rebate - driven downstream enterprises. The overall market trading was active, and some enterprises replenished their stocks. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely between 140,000 and 170,000 yuan/ton, with an increasing risk of correction [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 149,500 yuan/ton and closed at 160,500 yuan/ton, with a daily closing price change of 8.99% compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 451,074 lots, and the open interest was 415,351 lots, compared to 411,331 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was - 320 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,681 lots, a change of - 17 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 149,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton, a change of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 145,000 - 153,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,060 US dollars/ton, a change of 20 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The price increase was due to the expected interference in the lithium ore supply side, the postponed resumption of production in Yichun's lithium mica mines, and the continued enthusiasm for export among downstream enterprises due to the export tax - rebate adjustment policy. Some enterprises replenished their stocks after the price correction, and the overall market trading was active [1]. Inventory Analysis - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 109,679 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 263 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 19,727 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,345 tons; the downstream inventory was 35,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 888 tons; and other inventories were 54,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 720 tons. Downstream replenishment demand is expected to be gradually released [2]. Strategy - In the short term, the lithium carbonate price is likely to fluctuate widely between 140,000 and 170,000 yuan/ton, with an increasing risk of correction and a possible decline to the support level of 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. The export tax - rebate bonus will support demand before April, but from late January to February, there will be an overlap of upstream maintenance and the traditional downstream off - season, and demand may weaken marginally. Inventory changes will be the key indicator [3]. - For unilateral trading, short - term range operation is recommended, and sell - hedging can be carried out at high prices. There are no strategies for options, inter - period, inter - variety, and spot - futures trading [3][4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral; Mid - term: Downward for single - side trading [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On January 20, 2026, domestic LPG spot prices generally declined, and the overall market atmosphere was weak. Although the external market was relatively strong, the domestic market was restricted by multiple factors. PDH and other downstream chemical device profits were under pressure due to rising costs, and the price inversion of ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppressed the PG market. Additionally, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery disturbed the market, especially after the main contract switched to the 03 contract [1]. - In the medium term, the overseas supply growth trend will continue, with potential increases in supply from the Middle East and the United States. The global balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply situation, and the market's internal upward driving force is limited. However, if the Iranian geopolitical situation further escalates and causes LPG supply disruptions, it could lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies, which is a potential upward risk factor for the market [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, the spot prices in different regions were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3910 - 4060 yuan/ton; North China market, 4300 - 4410 yuan/ton; East China market, 4270 - 4370 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4780 - 5030 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4250 - 4400 yuan/ton; South China market, 4840 - 4970 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 608 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 601 US dollars/ton, unchanged. In RMB terms, propane was 4686 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton, and butane was 4632 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China was 589 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and butane was 584 US dollars/ton, unchanged. In RMB terms, propane was 4554 yuan/ton, unchanged, and butane was 4515 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy - Single - side trading: Short - term neutral, pay attention to the Iranian situation; Mid - term downward. No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, with significant price support due to the double reduction in supply and demand, combined with the transmission effect of rising coal and photovoltaic industry chain prices. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3] - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation and consolidation. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates in the photovoltaic industry may boost short - term export rush demand but could overdraw medium - and long - term demand. The overall market is moving towards cost - reduction and efficiency - enhancement, with downstream capacity accelerating to clear out [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated downward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,815 yuan/ton and closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, a change of (-35) yuan/ton or (-0.4)% compared to the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2605 had a position of 224,552 lots. On January 19, 2026, the total number of warehouse receipts was 11,571 lots, a change of 288 lots from the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices were basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the 97 silicon price was stable [1] - As of January 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [1] Consumption End - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. Polysilicon production cuts continued this week, providing limited support for industrial silicon demand. However, the short - term photovoltaic export rush may boost industrial silicon demand. Organic silicon continued the peak - shifting emission reduction policy and self - disciplined production cuts, also providing weak support for industrial silicon demand. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and subsequent开工 was expected to be mainly stable with a slight decline. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics may bring upward momentum expectations to the demand side [2] Supply End - On the same day, a large factory in Xinjiang announced production cuts, and the planned production in January was expected to decline significantly, which had a positive impact on industrial silicon prices. If the production cuts are effective, the supply side of industrial silicon will contract significantly, and inventory will shift from accumulation to reduction [2] Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. In the short term, conduct range - bound operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, the polysilicon futures main contract 2605 oscillated upward, opening at 50,650 yuan/ton and closing at 50,700 yuan/ton, a change of 0.91% in the closing price compared to the previous trading day. The main contract position reached 43,632 (44,571 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 10,115 lots [3] - Polysilicon spot prices were stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 51.50 - 59.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg [3] - According to SMM statistics, polysilicon manufacturer inventory increased, silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 32.10 (with a month - on - month change of 6.29%), silicon wafer inventory was 24.78GW (with a month - on - month change of - 5.53%), polysilicon weekly output was 21,500 tons (with a month - on - month change of - 9.66%), and silicon wafer output was 10.83GW (with a month - on - month change of 2.95%) [3] Product Prices - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.49 yuan/piece [4] - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.41 yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4][5] - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.74 - 0.77 yuan/W [5] Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation and consolidation. In the short term, conduct range - bound operations, and the main contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]