FICC日报 | 2026-01-21 欧美博弈升级，国内财政货币协同发力 FICC日报 | 2026-01-21 策略 商品和股指期货：整体中性。 市场分析 有色板块驱动转缓。从宏观角度，1、"232"调查落地，特朗普宣布暂时不对关键矿产进口加征新关税，同时表示 正在构想一种建立"价格底线"的机制，旨在促进美国盟友阵营内的供应链发展；当地时间1月17日，美国总统特朗 普在其社交平台"真实社交"上表示，自2026年2月1日起，丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰出 口至美国的所有商品加征10%的关税。自2026年6月1日起，加征关税的税率将提高至25%。并且他表示，这一关税 措施将持续实施，直至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。特朗普拒绝说明是否会以武力夺取格陵兰，欧盟 周四将召开紧急峰会应对特朗普"夺岛"关税。对于市场担忧的欧盟反制措施，贝森特表示，欧洲抛售美债是"虚假 叙事"。2、美联储主席候选人风波略降温，在对美联储主席鲍威尔提起刑事调查后，多方密集发声支持美联储独 立性，特朗普也表态"没有撤换美联储主席鲍威尔的计划"。鲍威尔计划周三（1月21日）亲自出席最高法院针对美 联储理事Cook的 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-01-21 供应压力不减，郑糖弱势整理 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14525元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.14%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15557元/吨，较前一日变动-26元/吨，现货基差CF05+1032，较前一日变动-6；3128B棉全国均价15856元/吨， 较前一日变动-24元/吨，现货基差CF05+1331，较前一日变动-4。 近期市场资讯，2025年12月中国进口棉花17.73万吨，巴西棉进口稳居第一，进口10.67万吨，同比增3.1万吨，环比 增3.9万吨；其次澳棉进口3.69万吨，同比略增0.3万吨，环比略降0.2万吨；中亚棉进口1.22万吨，同比变动不大， 环比增0.6万吨，其余国家进口量均在1万吨以下。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，1月USDA下调全球棉花产量和期末库存，数据调整整体偏多。不过当前北半 球新棉大量上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，美棉出口签约进度整体仍偏慢，短期ICE美 棉预计仍将承压。中长期看， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE is rated neutral, and PP is rated neutral [5] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals provide limited support, and in the short term, it follows the fluctuations of the cost side. The market has returned to fundamental trading, and it may be weak and volatile in the short term [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,640 yuan/ton (-27), and that of the PP main contract is 6,461 yuan/ton (-21). The spot price of LL in North China is 6,540 yuan/ton (-120), and in East China is 6,700 yuan/ton (-30). The spot price of PP in East China is 6,410 yuan/ton (+0). The basis of LL in North China is -100 yuan/ton (-93), in East China is 60 yuan/ton (-3), and that of PP in East China is -51 yuan/ton (+21) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 81.6% (-2.1%), and the PP operating rate is 75.6% (+0.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 186.2 yuan/ton (-103.7), the PP oil - based production profit is -373.8 yuan/ton (-103.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -628.5 yuan/ton (-46.1) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is 122.9 yuan/ton (-117.3), the PP import profit is -406.7 yuan/ton (-153.0), and the PP export profit is -57.9 US dollars/ton (+3.5) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 36.9% (-1.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.2% (-0.8%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.6% (-0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.6% (+0.3%) [2] Market Analysis - **PE**: The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, and international oil prices have entered a volatile phase after falling from high levels. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the market trades on the weak PE fundamentals. The supply is expected to increase steadily as there are few short - term planned maintenance of existing devices, some previously shut - down devices plan to resume production, and some full - density devices return to producing standard products. The demand shows off - season characteristics, with the overall downstream operating rate declining, and downstream factories may be less willing to replenish inventory at high prices. The inventory has been transferred from producers to middle - stream traders, but there is still pressure to reduce inventory under high supply [3] - **PP**: After the macro - sentiment is digested and due to the weak demand in the off - season, the market has corrected from high levels. The supply side has few new short - term maintenance, but the PDH is in deep loss, and some devices have maintenance expectations. The demand was boosted during the previous price increase as downstream enterprises replenished inventory, but now the downstream is in the off - season, and the resistance to high prices has increased, with limited new orders. The inventory of the upstream and middle - stream has decreased, but the overall inventory level is still high. The cost of oil - based production has decreased, while the PDH - based cost still provides support [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: LLDPE and PP are both rated neutral. The market may be weak and volatile in the short term [5] - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided [5] - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; No rating for inter - period and cross - variety [4] Core Viewpoints - After the situation in Iran eased, the methanol futures price on the port has continuously corrected. The port inventory has started to decline, and the port basis has rebounded. However, attention should be paid to the downstream MTO maintenance situation. Overseas, Iranian methanol plants are still undergoing winter maintenance [3]. - In the inland areas, coal - based methanol plants maintain high - pressure operation, and southwest gas - based plants are gradually restarting. Inland factories are in a period of continuous inventory increase, and the traditional downstream is in the seasonal off - season [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - This section includes multiple figures showing the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures in this part display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import price differences between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][27] III. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - It shows the total port inventory of methanol, the start - up rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the start - up rate of methanol in China [6][33][39] IV. Regional Price Differences - The section presents the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and the price differences between other regions [2][6][36] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][49][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Affected by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued while the uncertainty of global trade increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3] Summary by Related Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and 0.80% year - on - year increase, while the monthly PPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [8] - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.47%; M2 year - on - year was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 6.25%; the manufacturing PMI was 50.10%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.90% and a growth rate of 1.83% [9] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 98.55, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 and a decline rate of 0.49%; the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9551, with a month - on - month increase of 0.001 and a growth rate of 0.02%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.48, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.09%; DR007 was 1.49, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.19%; R007 was 1.68, with a month - on - month increase of 0.17 and a growth rate of 11.44%; the 3 - month AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit was 1.60, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.13%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.13% [10] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant charts include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the trend of the settled funds of various treasury bond futures varieties, the position - holding ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20 of various treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20 of various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [11][14][17][20] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - Relevant charts include the trend of Shibor rates, the trend of the maturity yields of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit, the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local government bonds [27][28] IV. Spread Overview - Relevant charts include the inter - term spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [32][36][37] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [39][43][48] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][54] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [55][56] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [61][67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is in a high - level consolidation phase with a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The limited remaining grain in the producing areas and auction premiums provide bottom support, while the low acceptance of high prices by end - users restricts the upside [2] - The peanut market has sufficient supply. The overall trading rhythm is dull, and prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in downstream stocking progress before the Spring Festival [3][4] Market Analysis Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the Dou - Yi 2605 contract yesterday was 4338.00 yuan/ton, up 17.00 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The basis of edible soybeans was A05 + 102, down 17 or 32.14% from the previous day. The spot prices in Northeast China were stable, and the trading enthusiasm in the trade link increased. For example, the loading price of standard first - class 39% protein medium - grain tower grain in Harbin was 2.22 yuan/jin [1] - Market situation: Yesterday, the price of the main soybean futures contract fluctuated upwards. The prices in southern producing areas were stable, with some high - protein soybeans having a price - raising intention but limited actual sales. The downstream inquiry enthusiasm in the sales areas increased, but the transaction focus remained the same. The market is in an oscillating pattern [2] Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract yesterday was 7906.00 yuan/ton, up 16.00 yuan/ton or 0.20% from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8018.00 yuan/ton, up 18.00 yuan/ton or 0.23% month - on - month. The basis was PK03 - 906.00, up 16.00 or 1.80% month - on - month. The national average price of general peanuts was 8000 yuan/jin, up 18 yuan/ton. The purchase prices of oil mills were stable, and the arrival volume decreased in some areas due to snow and rain [3] - Market situation: Yesterday, the main peanut futures contract fluctuated slightly within a narrow range. The domestic peanut market has sufficient supply. The transaction prices in some producing areas increased slightly, but the overall trading rhythm was dull [3] Strategies - For soybeans, the strategy is neutral [3] - For peanuts, the strategy is also neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas factors such as Trump's remarks and concerns about Japan's fiscal deterioration have led to a decline in major global indexes. Domestically, market enthusiasm has cooled under policy guidance, with a decrease in trading volume and index levels. Currently, investors can focus on the entry opportunities for IC [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts - The report presents charts showing the relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A - share trends, as well as the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles [6][8][10]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - A - share indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65 points, down 0.01%; the ChiNext Index fell 1.79%. Industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, real estate, and transportation led the gains, while communications, national defense and military industry, and computer industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.8 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes all closed down, with the Nasdaq falling 2.39% to 22954.32 points [1]. - The daily performance table of major domestic stock indexes shows the closing prices and daily changes on January 20, 2026, and January 19, 2026 [13]. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - In the futures market, the current - month contracts of IH and IC were at a premium. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2]. - The table of stock index futures trading volume and open interest shows the current values and changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts [15]. - The table of stock index futures basis shows the current values and changes of the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [38]. - The table of stock index futures inter - period spreads shows the current values and changes of inter - period spreads for different contract combinations of IF, IH, IC, and IM [43][44].

油脂日报 | 2026-01-21 棕榈油产量变化成为焦点，盘面震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8748.00元/吨，环比变化+100元，幅度+1.16%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8032.00 元/吨，环比变化+36.00元，幅度+0.45%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8948.00元/吨，环比变化+46.00元，幅度+0.52%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8720.00元/吨，环比变化+90.00元，幅度+1.04%，现货基差P05-28.00，环比变化 -10.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8410.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.36%，现货基差Y05+378.00， 环比变化-6.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9780.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.31%，现货基差 OI05+832.00，环比变化-16.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(2月船期)C&F价格1218美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调9美元/吨；阿根廷豆油(4 月船期)C&F价格1155美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调16美元/吨。进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [6] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views - Micro data is relatively stable, social inventory accumulation is slow, and spot market supply pressure is low [1][5] - Zinc price valuation is still low, and downstream acceptance of price is relatively good [5] - Short - term market sentiment is weak, and zinc price shows a correction trend [5] - TC shows no upward trend, and comprehensive smelting faces losses, so supply - side pressure is unlikely to appear [5] - Long - term consumption is still promising, and inventory pressure is not high [5] Group 3: Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium: -$41.66/ton [2] - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price: -80 yuan/ton to 24340 yuan/ton, spot premium: 40 yuan/ton [2] - SMM Guangdong zinc spot price: -70 yuan/ton to 24350 yuan/ton, spot premium: 5 yuan/ton [2] - Tianjin zinc spot price: -80 yuan/ton to 24280 yuan/ton, spot premium: -20 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On 2026 - 01 - 20, SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24370 yuan/ton, closed at 24410 yuan/ton (-40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day), with trading volume of 143056 lots and positions of 125893 lots. The highest price was 24515 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24275 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of 2026 - 01 - 20, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory: 12.20 million tons, a change of 0.35 million tons from the previous period [4] - As of 2026 - 01 - 20, LME zinc inventory: 112300 tons, a change of 7250 tons from the previous trading day [4]

石油沥青日报 | 2026-01-21 市场多空因素交织，盘面维持震荡 市场分析 1、1月20日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3139元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌1元/吨，跌幅 0.32%；持仓190549手，环比下降985手，成交118917手，环比下跌5845手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3406—3500元/吨；山东，3000—3240元/吨；华南，3180—3250元/吨； 华东，3130—3230元/吨。 昨日华北、山东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格出现下跌，华南地区沥青现货价格窄幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格 基本持稳。受到降温以及雨雪天气影响，大部分地区沥青刚性需求持续下滑，制约市场情绪。目前来看，盘面在 定价委油供应收紧预期后进入震荡阶段。在南美局势升级、美国意图加强控制委内瑞拉资源的背景下，委内瑞拉 原油对国内炼厂供应收紧的预期持续兑现，市场开始关注替代原料的可获得性以及对成本的影响。目前来看，如 果原本流向亚洲地区的委内瑞拉原油持续流向欧美，在库存原料消耗后(预计能够用到3月份），未来国内炼厂需要 从中东、加拿大、南美等地寻找替代重质原料，其中可能包括俄罗斯与伊朗 ...