Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three sectors (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Core Views - The cotton market lacks positive drivers and faces pressure from downstream transmission and internal - external price differentials in the short term. In the long term, its upward potential depends on policy implementation [2][3] - The sugar market is in a state of global surplus in the 25/26 season. Although the short - term trade flow is tight, the medium - term outlook is bearish. The long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Currently, domestic sugar is in a state of supply increase, and the short - to - medium - term price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5][6] - The pulp market has continuous overseas supply disruptions. With the expectation of pre - Spring Festival restocking, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,810 yuan/ton yesterday, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,717 yuan/ton, up 217 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 907, up 167 from the previous day; the national average price of 3128B cotton was 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 1160, up 137 from the previous day. From January 5th to 11th, the number of ginning mills in Xinjiang that ended processing increased, and the processing volume continued to decline. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton was 6.78 yuan/kg, down 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of January 11th, 1096 cotton processing enterprises nationwide had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.784 million tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, with high supply pressure and weak global textile consumption. The ICE U.S. cotton is expected to be under pressure in the short term, but has limited downward space in the long term. Domestically, China's cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and the commercial inventory is seasonally rising. Although the pre - festival stocking by yarn mills and traders is active, downstream orders and product sales have decreased, and the inventory in the industrial chain, especially at the grey fabric end, has increased significantly. For the whole year, domestic cotton consumption has increased due to the expansion of yarn spindle capacity, and the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of inventory tightening at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Be vigilant against the risk of high - level callbacks in the short term. The long - term upward space depends on the implementation of relevant policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5299 yuan/ton yesterday, up 46 yuan/ton (+0.88%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 + 71, down 36 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 - 69, down 46 from the previous day. In the first half of December, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.894 million tons (-32.83%); the sugar production was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 102,000 tons (-28.76%) [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in a surplus in the 25/26 season. In the short term, the tight trade flow in the first quarter may support the raw sugar price. In the medium term, the surplus pattern will suppress the market. In the long term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and there are still uncertainties in the weather in 2026 and the planting area in Thailand. In China, sugar production has increased for the third consecutive year, and the pre - festival stocking demand may support the price. However, the import pressure is high, and the amount of syrup has not decreased significantly [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short - to - medium term, although the valuation is low, there is still a possibility of another bottom - seeking, but the overall downward space is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5494 yuan/ton yesterday, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 + 56, down 2 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Urals and Bratsk) was 5135 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 - 359, down 2 from the previous day. Yesterday, the imported wood pulp spot market stabilized, with weak trading volume [7] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, there have been continuous news of overseas pulp mill shutdowns and maintenance at the end of 2025. In terms of demand, the inventory of wood pulp in European ports continued to decline in November, and the demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation this year, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory has been at a historical high. However, the port inventory decreased slightly in December, and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity will generate marginal incremental demand for pulp, which may support the pulp price to gradually stabilize [8] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. With continuous overseas supply disruptions and the expectation of pre - Spring Festival restocking, the short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and port inventory digestion [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean and peanut industries is neutral [3][6] 2. Core Views - For soybeans, the price is at an annual high, and its future trend depends on whether downstream stocking demand can be effectively released before and after the Spring Festival. If the demand starts as expected, the price may continue to rise; otherwise, market support may weaken [2] - For peanuts, the market shows a supply - demand surplus. In the short - term, prices are expected to remain weakly stable, and the focus should be on oil mill purchase dynamics and whether pre - festival stocking demand can bring improvement [5] 3. Summary by Commodity Soybeans Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Douyi 2605 contract was 4323.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 117, up 6 (32.14%) from the previous day. Northeast soybean spot prices were stable, with a strong bottom support due to scarce grain, farmers' reluctance to sell, and national reserve policies. Southern soybean spot prices were stable, but terminal demand was weak, leading to slow sales. Some enterprises tried to raise prices, but market acceptance was limited [1][2] Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [3] Peanuts Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Peanut 2603 contract was 7844.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 7982.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan/ton (-0.11%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK03 - 844.00, up 18.00 (-2.09%) month - on - month. The overall peanut market had a loose supply - demand pattern, with sufficient supply in the producing areas and weak terminal demand [3][4][5] Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [6]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-15 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-01-14，沪铜主力合约开于 103780元/吨，收于 104120元/吨，较前一交易日收盘1.79%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 104350元/吨，收于 103660元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.44%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2601合约报价区间为平水至升水280元/吨，均价升水140元，较昨日上涨 80元。现货价格区间为103500-104330元/吨。期铜主力合约早盘高开后探低回升，开盘自103150元小幅下行至102900 元后强势反弹，盘中两度触及104850元以上，最终收于104290元。隔月Contango价差在440-330元/吨，当月进口亏 损约1940-2070元/吨。早间平水铜报贴水10元至升水30元，好铜与湿法货源紧张，市场报价稀少。金冠早盘报升水 30元后上调至50元，豫光、中条山等平水成交，JCC、祥光报升水100元。午后金冠因成交活跃升至70元，紫金等 平水维持，金川isa以升水30元成交。今日为2601合约最后交易日，已有持货商对次月报贴水200元。预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overnight crude oil price increase has widened, and it has been in a strong and volatile stalemate during the Asian session. The escalation of geopolitical risks in Iran continues to support the upward movement of oil prices. The US will impose a 25% tariff on goods from countries doing business with Iran, and Trump may authorize new military strikes against Iran [2]. - The PXN was at $338/ton (a month-on-month change of -$1.25/ton). After the recent significant improvement in PX profitability, domestic and foreign PX plants have increased their operations. The PXN has retreated due to weakening fundamentals, but the medium - term outlook remains positive, and the short - term decline in polyester operation rate is limited [2]. - The spot basis of the TA main contract was -70 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of -1 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee was 350 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of +23 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures price was 331 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of -7 yuan/ton). The short - term decline in polyester is limited, and the inventory accumulation pressure in January is not significant. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve further [2]. - The polyester operation rate was 90.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.9%). The weaving load continued to decline, domestic orders weakened after the end of November, and坯布 inventory began to accumulate. The polyester load will decline to around 88% in January [3]. - The spot production profit of PF was -25 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of -35 yuan/ton). The demand is weak, and the processing difference is maintained in the range of 900 - 1000 yuan/ton. The Spring Festival maintenance plan has been announced, but the maintenance intensity is limited [3]. - The spot processing fee of PR was 563 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of +26 yuan/ton). The processing fee is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][12][14] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][21] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operation rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [26][29][31] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operation rate, and filament profit [48][50][58] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between original and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [72][78][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [87][91][93] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on PX/PTA/PF/PR for hedging, and pay attention to the impact of the Iran situation on crude oil prices. Although there are expectations of increased supply and demand - side maintenance plans, the decline in polyester load is limited, and the medium - term outlook for PX remains positive [4]. - Cross - variety: No relevant strategy provided. - Cross - period: No relevant strategy provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The bond market oscillates between the expectations of stable growth and policy easing, with short - term focus on end - of - month policy signals. This is due to factors such as the stock market trend, the broad - money signal released by the Politburo meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the increased uncertainty in global trade affecting foreign capital inflows [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [10]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan (+0.54%); M2 year - on - year growth is 8.00%, with a 0.20% decrease; the manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with a 0.90% (+1.83%) increase [11]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.08, with a 0.10 (-0.10%) decrease; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 6.9697, with a 0.005 (-0.07%) decrease; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.55, with a 0.03 (+1.77%) increase; DR007 is 1.57, with a 0.02 (+1.25%) increase; R007 is 1.68, with a 0.17 (+11.44%) increase; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.61, with no change; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with no change [12]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On January 14, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.33 yuan, 105.66 yuan, 107.93 yuan, and 111.27 yuan respectively. Their fluctuations are 0.00%, 0.04%, 0.08%, and - 0.04% respectively [4]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.053 yuan, - 0.047 yuan, - 0.017 yuan, and 0.126 yuan respectively [4]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 14, 2026, the central bank conducted a 240.8 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [3]. - **Repo Rates**: The main - term repo rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.390%, 1.550%, 1.567%, and 1.560% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [3]. IV. Spread Overview - **Cross - Period and Cross - Variety Spreads**: Information on the cross - period spreads of various treasury bond futures and the cross - variety spreads between spot and futures is presented in multiple figures, such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), etc. [26][32][34] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The figure shows the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield [36]. - **IRR and Basis Spreads**: Information about the TS main contract's IRR and its relationship with the funding rate, as well as the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends, is provided [39][44]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The figure shows the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield [45]. - **IRR and Basis Spreads**: Information about the TF main contract's IRR and its relationship with the funding rate, as well as the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends, is provided [50]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: The figure shows the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield [51]. - **IRR and Basis Spreads**: Information about the T main contract's IRR and its relationship with the funding rate, as well as the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends, is provided [52]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: The figure shows the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield [57]. - **IRR and Basis Spreads**: Information about the TL main contract's IRR and its relationship with the funding rate, as well as the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends, is provided [62]. Strategy - **Single - Side Strategy**: With the decline of repo rates, the prices of treasury bond futures oscillate [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis spread [5]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

液化石油气日报 | 2026-01-15 地缘风险上升，盘面延续震荡偏强态势 市场分析 1、\t1月14日地区价格：山东市场，4430-4470；东北市场，3910-4150；华北市场，4200-4430；华东市场，4350-4550； 沿江市场，4750-5080；西北市场，4200-4400；华南市场，4990-5100。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年2月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷607美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷602美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4686元/吨，涨55元/吨，丁烷4647元/吨，涨55元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、2026年2月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷599美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷594美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4624元/吨，涨55元/吨，丁烷4585元/吨，涨55元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着伊朗地缘局势升温，能源板块整体上涨，PG盘面延续震荡偏强运行，外盘表现坚挺，昨日与国内现货继续上 涨，前期表现较弱的醚后碳四也受到原油端带动上涨。整体来看，近期LPG市场呈现"外强内弱"的格局，海外供应 边际收紧，地缘局 ...

燃料油日报 | 2026-01-15 策略 高硫方面：短期震荡偏强，关注伊朗局势发展；中期偏空 低硫方面：短期震荡偏强，关注伊朗局势发展；中期偏空 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 伊朗局势升温，燃料油盘面大涨 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨6.07%，报2586元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨2.51%，报3098 元/吨。 随着伊朗局势升温，原油与燃料油情绪溢价明显上涨。具体来看，昨日美国政府敦促美国公民立即离开伊朗，特 朗普与政府高级官员讨论美国针对伊朗的下一步措施，包括网络攻击、实施制裁和军事打击等。在美伊关系趋于 紧张的环境下，再结合近期美国对委内瑞拉展开的行动，市场担忧伊朗地区冲突进一步升级，从而导致伊朗石油 供应收紧。作为伊朗主要产品，高硫燃料油潜在的风险敞口较为显著。此外，由于委内瑞拉重油物流减少，国内 沥青炼厂对燃料油等替代原料的需求增加，而伊朗是国内燃料油资源的重要来源之一。如果伊朗供应出现中断， 则多重因素叠加下市场将更为紧张。最后，近期彭博 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 农产品日报 | 2026-01-15 整体供应宽松，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2751元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，幅度-0.36%；菜粕2605合约2289元/吨，较前 日变动-25元/吨，幅度-1.08%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3160元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差 M05+409，较前日变动+0；江苏地区豆粕现货3080元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+329，较前日变动+10； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3090元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M05+339，较前日变动+0。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2510元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差RM05+221，较前日变动+5。 近期市场资讯，1月13日，巴西全国谷物出口商协会发布的报告显示，巴西1月大豆出口量预计为373万吨，之前一 周预计为240万吨。巴西1月豆粕出口量预计将触及182万吨，之前一周预计为164万吨。 市场分析 当前港口高库存延续，整体供应较为充足，但市场仍对于一季度大豆到港存在一定担忧，叠加近期大宗商品普涨， 近期豆粕价格偏强运行。但综合来看， ...

Report Summary - **Report Date**: 2026-01-14 - **Report Type**: Market Liquidity Daily Report - **Report Content**: Analyzes the trading volume, position amount, trading volume - position ratio and other data of various market sectors Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading volume, position amount and trading volume - position ratio of different market sectors on 2026 - 01 - 14 and their changes compared with the previous trading day, providing a reference for the market liquidity analysis of each sector [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Liquidity - On 2026 - 01 - 14, the trading volume of the stock index sector was 1480.547 billion yuan, a + 28.02% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 1765.792 billion yuan, a + 4.35% change; the trading volume - position ratio was 82.27% [1] - The trading volume of the treasury bond sector was 421.375 billion yuan, a + 43.58% change; the position amount was 802.668 billion yuan, a - 0.05% change; the trading volume - position ratio was 53.48% [1] - The trading volume of the base metal sector was 1328.555 billion yuan, a - 7.72% change; the position amount was 854.565 billion yuan, a + 0.87% change; the trading volume - position ratio was 151.66% [1] - The trading volume of the precious metal sector was 1327.798 billion yuan, a + 16.97% change; the position amount was 608.852 billion yuan, a + 6.01% change; the trading volume - position ratio was 287.64% [1] - The trading volume of the energy and chemical sector was 618.060 billion yuan, a + 17.03% change; the position amount was 481.283 billion yuan, a + 1.45% change; the trading volume - position ratio was 110.10% [1] - The trading volume of the agricultural products sector was 301.910 billion yuan, a - 6.94% change; the position amount was 618.148 billion yuan, a + 0.24% change; the trading volume - position ratio was 44.63% [1] - The trading volume of the black building materials sector was 214.945 billion yuan, a - 10.06% change; the position amount was 330.627 billion yuan, a + 0.03% change; the trading volume - position ratio was 60.58% [2] 2. Stock Index Sector - The report provides data charts on the price change rate, trading volume - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change, and the proportion trend of the top 20 net positions of various varieties in the stock index sector [9][10][11] 3. Treasury Bond Sector - The report provides data charts on the price change rate, trading volume - position ratio, precipitation fund change, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change, and the proportion trend of the top 20 net positions of various varieties in the treasury bond sector [19][22][26] 4. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Sector) - The report provides data charts on the price change rate, trading volume - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change rate, and the proportion trend of the top 20 net positions of various varieties in the metal sector [29][30][32] 5. Energy and Chemical Sector - The report provides data charts on the price change rate, trading volume - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change rate, and the proportion trend of the top 20 net positions of major varieties in the energy and chemical sector [39][40][41] 6. Agricultural Products Sector - The report provides data charts on the price change rate, trading volume - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change rate, and the proportion trend of the top 20 net positions of major varieties in the agricultural products sector [46][47][49] 7. Black Building Materials Sector - The report provides data charts on the price change rate, trading volume - position ratio, precipitation fund change amount, precipitation fund trend, trading volume change rate, and the proportion trend of the top 20 net positions of various varieties in the black building materials sector [55][56][58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PE prices continue to rise due to factors such as increased cost support from rising oil prices, improved sentiment, and a slight improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals. However, the demand support is limited, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory under high supply. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro guidance and the inventory reduction process [2]. - PP prices also rebound due to improved market sentiment, expected supply reduction, and cost support. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly, but the demand is still in the off - season. The sustainability of the short - term rebound depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction pressure [3]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. The market is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to upstream maintenance dynamics [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6820 yuan/ton (+54), and the PP main contract is 6590 yuan/ton (+45). LL spot prices in North and East China are 6750 yuan/ton (+80) and 6880 yuan/ton (+130) respectively, and PP spot price in East China is 6420 yuan/ton (+170). LL basis in North China is - 70 yuan/ton (+26), LL basis in East China is 60 yuan/ton (+76), and PP basis in East China is - 170 yuan/ton (+125) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 83.7% (+0.4%), and PP operating rate is 75.5% (-1.3%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 84.0 yuan/ton (-20.8), PP oil - based production profit is - 656.0 yuan/ton (-20.8), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 815.3 yuan/ton (-93.3) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is 258.8 yuan/ton (+98.6), PP import profit is - 409.1 yuan/ton (-43.4), and PP export profit is - 36.3 US dollars/ton (+0.2) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 37.9% (-1.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.0% (+0.6%), PP downstream woven operating rate is 42.6% (-0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.2% (+0.0%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Cost support increases with rising oil prices, and the supply - demand fundamentals improve slightly. Supply decreases due to more short - term maintenance of existing devices, and the production of standard products increases. Demand improves as downstream factories increase restocking, but the demand is still in the off - season. Inventory is transferred from upstream to middle - stream, but there is still pressure to reduce inventory [2]. - **PP**: The price rebounds due to improved sentiment, expected supply reduction, and cost support. Supply pressure eases in the short - term due to more temporary maintenance, and there are strong expectations for future PDH device maintenance. Demand improves as downstream restocking increases, but it is still in the off - season. Inventory is transferred from upstream to middle - stream, and the overall inventory level is still high [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. The market may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to upstream maintenance dynamics [4]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [4].