Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The pig market is in a state of supply - demand game, with the futures price oscillating. In the short - term, the price is affected by factors such as the rhythm of farmers' sales and consumer demand. In the long - term, the supply in the first quarter is large, and the price after the Spring Festival is under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be affected by capacity reduction, but the process may be slow [4][53]. - The egg market has supply pressure, and the rebound of the futures price is restricted. Although the egg price has increased recently due to pre - holiday stocking, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the medium - and long - term supply pressure will gradually ease but still exists [5][78]. - The corn market is in short - term supply - demand balance, with the futures price oscillating at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which will put pressure on the price increase [6][107]. Summary by Directory 01 Feed and Livestock Farming Viewpoints Summary Pig - **Spot and Futures**: As of January 23, the national spot price was 12.87 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.14 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg; the futures price of contract 2503 was 11,565 yuan/ton, down 415 yuan/ton; the basis of contract 03 was 1,575 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan/ton. The weekly pig price first rose and then fell, with a slight increase. The futures price of the main contract 03 first declined and then rose, with a weak oscillation, and the basis strengthened [4][53]. - **Supply**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly in September and the capacity reduction accelerated in October. However, due to previous profits and improved self - breeding and self - raising profits in December, the capacity reduction slowed down. The supply will remain high before the first half of the year, and the supply pressure in the first quarter is still large. The planned pig slaughter of large - scale enterprises in January decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of pigs increased slightly, and the proportion of large - pig slaughter decreased [4][53]. - **Demand**: The weekly slaughter rate and volume first increased and then decreased. The terminal demand was less than expected, and the slaughter volume declined. The fresh - sales rate decreased, and the frozen - product inventory rate continued to decrease. The current seasonal consumption is relatively strong, but the time for a rapid increase in consumption has not yet arrived, and the slaughter volume is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [4][53]. - **Cost**: The price of piglets increased, and the price of binary breeding sows was stable. The self - breeding and self - raising profit increased, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding turned positive. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs for 5 months was stable [4][53]. - **Weekly Summary**: Consumption has increased since Laba, but the rapid increase usually occurs 7 days before the Lunar New Year. Although the planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in January has decreased, the supply may be advanced. The supply - demand relationship will gradually loosen, and the pig price is under pressure, but the bullish sentiment before the Spring Festival and the expected increase in consumption will limit the decline. In the long - term, the supply in the first quarter will increase, and the price after the Spring Festival is under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be affected by capacity reduction, but the process may be slow [4][53]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, for off - season contracts, take profit on short positions and wait for a rebound to go short. For far - month contracts, be cautious about bullishness and hedge at high profits before the capacity is effectively reduced [4][53]. Egg - **Spot and Futures**: As of January 23, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.83 yuan/jin, up 0.23 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.83 yuan/jin, up 0.24 yuan/jin. The futures price of the main contract 2603 was 3,046 yuan/500 kg, down 26 yuan/500 kg; the basis of the main contract was 514 yuan/500 kg, up 256 yuan/500 kg. The weekly egg price first remained stable and then increased. The approaching Spring Festival led to increased stocking demand, which supported the price increase. The main contract 03 fluctuated, and the basis was at a relatively low level in the same period of history [5][78]. - **Supply**: The newly - hatched laying hens in January correspond to the replenishment in August 2025, with both month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The inventory of laying hens has been slowly declining, but the inventory base is still large. The recent strong egg price has improved the breeding profit, and the enthusiasm for culling has declined. In the long - term, the replenishment volume from September to December 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year, corresponding to a decrease in the number of newly - hatched laying hens from February to May 2026. The current good Spring Festival spot performance and the low proportion of hens over 500 days old will weaken the culling enthusiasm around the Spring Festival. The market will experience a repeated bottom - grinding process, and the supply pressure will take time to ease [5][78]. - **Demand**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic demand in various places has been launched, and the substitution demand for eggs is good due to the long - term pressure on pork prices and the seasonal increase in vegetable prices. The egg delivery volume and sales volume in the sample sales areas increased, and the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased [5][78]. - **Weekly Summary**: The increase in egg price is driven by pre - holiday stocking, but attention should be paid to the domestic demand and channel inventory. The overall supply is sufficient, and the short - term callback risk has increased. In the long - term, the supply pressure will still exist, and attention should be paid to culling and external variables [5][78]. - **Strategy**: The current basis is low, and the overall valuation is high. Wait for the spot price increase to be less than expected and hedge post - festival contracts at high prices. Consider the high probability of molting and extending the laying period around the Spring Festival, and hedge contracts 05 and 06 at high prices [5][78]. Corn - **Spot and Futures**: As of January 23, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,350 yuan/ton, stable compared with last Friday; the futures price of the main contract 2603 was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract was 50 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton. The weekly national corn price oscillated at a high level. The downstream replenishment enthusiasm before the Spring Festival was good, and the grain - selling entities shipped steadily at the current price, but were reluctant to sell at low prices, which supported the price. The main contract 03 oscillated at a high level, and the basis was at a relatively high level in the same period of history [6][107]. - **Supply**: The national grass - roots grain - selling progress was 54%, 3% slower than the same period last year. The grass - roots and grain - holding entities were reluctant to sell, and the market supply was relatively stable. The grain - selling progress in North China was slower than the same period last year, and the short - term supply pressure was not large. The corn import in December was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43% and a year - on - year increase of 135.3%. The imports of sorghum and barley decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventories in the north and south ports were 1.75 million tons and 697,000 tons respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 190,000 tons and a decrease of 64,000 tons [6][107]. - **Demand**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly in September 2025, and the capacity reduction accelerated in October. However, the self - breeding and self - raising profit has turned positive, and the capacity is expected to be slowly reduced. The poultry inventory is also slowly declining. The current high inventory supports the rigid feed demand. If the corn price continues to rise, the wheat may replace corn in feed use. The deep - processing profit has turned negative, and the start - up rate is at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the finished - product inventory is high, which limits the increase in deep - processing demand [6][107]. - **Weekly Summary**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the purchase and sale in the production areas are becoming more active. The short - term supply - demand is relatively balanced, which supports the price to remain high. In the long - term, the corn planting cost in the 25/26 season has decreased, and the weather during the growing period is suitable, so a good harvest is expected. However, the carry - over inventory of the old crop is low, and the import is expected to increase year - on - year but is still at a low level, which strengthens the cost support. The overall demand for new - season corn is stable and weak, which limits the upward space of the price [6][107]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, be cautious about chasing high prices in the spot market, and grain - holding entities can hedge at high prices when the price rebounds. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern of corn in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which limits the price increase [6][107]. 02 Variety Industry Data Analysis Pig - **Weekly Market Review**: As of January 23, the national spot price was 12.87 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.14 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg; the futures price of contract 2503 was 11,565 yuan/ton, down 415 yuan/ton; the basis of contract 03 was 1,575 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan/ton [12]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased in December, but the self - breeding and self - raising profit has turned positive, and the capacity reduction is expected to be slow. The production performance of sows is at a high level in the past four years, and the supply in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to be at a high level [16]. Egg - **Weekly Market Review**: As of January 23, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.83 yuan/jin, up 0.23 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.83 yuan/jin, up 0.24 yuan/jin. The futures price of the main contract 2603 was 3,046 yuan/500 kg, down 26 yuan/500 kg; the basis of the main contract was 514 yuan/500 kg, up 256 yuan/500 kg [58]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining, the culling volume has decreased, and the culling age has been extended. The egg delivery volume and sales volume in the sample sales areas have increased, and the inventory in the production and circulation links has decreased [59]. Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: As of January 23, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,350 yuan/ton, stable compared with last Friday; the futures price of the main contract 2603 was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract was 50 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton [84]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The national grass - roots grain - selling progress was 54%, 3% slower than the same period last year. The inventories in the north and south ports were 1.75 million tons and 697,000 tons respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 190,000 tons and a decrease of 64,000 tons. The start - up rate of deep - processing enterprises increased, and the corn consumption increased [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the escalating Greenland issue, geopolitical tensions have risen, leading to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment. Precious metal prices have continued to be strong. The Fed held its December meeting, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and initiating a reserve - management balance - sheet expansion. The US employment situation has slowed down, and Fed Chairman Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates. The expectation of Hassett becoming the Fed Chairman has changed, and the market expects fewer interest - rate cuts this year. The US economic data has shown a downward trend, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver have shifted upward. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and their prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the Fed's January interest - rate decision to be announced on Thursday [11]. - It is expected that precious metal prices will continue to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the escalating Greenland issue, geopolitical tensions have risen, and risk - aversion sentiment has increased. Gold prices have shown a strong upward - trending fluctuation. As of last Friday, the price of US gold closed at $4,983 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 8.3%. The upper resistance level is $5,100, and the lower support level is $4,900 [6]. - Due to the escalating Greenland issue, geopolitical tensions have risen, risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the silver spot market has remained in short supply. Silver prices have risen strongly. As of last Friday, the weekly increase was 14.8%, and the price closed at $103.3 per ounce. The lower support level is $98, and the upper resistance level is $107 [9]. 3.2 Weekly Viewpoint - The Greenland issue continues to escalate, geopolitical tensions rise, market risk - aversion sentiment increases, and precious metal prices remain strong. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and initiated a balance - sheet expansion. The US employment situation has slowed down, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver have shifted upward. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and their prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the Fed's January interest - rate decision [11]. - Gold: COMEX inventory increased by 260.61 kg to 1,124,213.61 kg this week, and SHFE inventory increased by 1,956 kg to 102,009 kg. Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 395,996.63 kg to 12,952,270.73 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 45,753 kg to 581,090 kg. This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 223,928 lots, a decrease of 6,535 lots from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 24,615 lots, a decrease of 6,010 lots from last week. It is expected that prices will continue to be strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate (10 - year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yield spread (10Y - 2Y), gold - silver ratio, Fed balance - sheet scale and its weekly change, and WTI crude oil futures price trend [15][17][20]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The annual rate of the US November PCE price index was 2.8%, with an expected value of 2.7% and a previous value of 2.8%. - The preliminary value of the US January SPGI manufacturing PMI was 51.9, with an expected value of 52 and a previous value of 51.8 [27]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US President Trump said he had reached an agreement with NATO to ensure full and permanent access to Greenland. NATO leaders said allies must strengthen their commitment to Arctic security to counter threats from Russia and China. However, details of the agreement are unclear. Denmark insists on its sovereignty over Greenland, and the EU's foreign - policy chief said US - EU relations have been "severely damaged" in the past week. The Danish Prime Minister said no negotiations on Greenland's sovereignty have been held with NATO. - US consumer spending increased by 0.5% month - on - month in November, in line with expectations. The annualized quarterly growth rate of the US economy in the third quarter was revised up to 4.4%, the fastest in two years. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending January 17 increased slightly by 1,000 to 200,000 after seasonal adjustment, lower than the expected 210,000 [28]. 3.6 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory increased by 260.61 kg to 1,124,213.61 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 1,956 kg to 102,009 kg. - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 395,996.63 kg to 12,952,270.73 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 45,753 kg to 581,090 kg [13][31]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of January 20, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 223,928 lots, a decrease of 6,535 lots from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 24,615 lots, a decrease of 6,010 lots from last week [13][35]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Thursday (January 29) at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 24 will be released. - On Friday (January 30) at 21:30, the US December PPI annual rate will be released [37].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Weak Industry and Inventory Accumulation, Copper Prices Oscillating at High Levels [1] Report Date - January 26, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Last week, Shanghai copper oscillated at high levels. Supported by factors such as China's GDP growth, loose monetary policy, increased power grid investment, overseas geopolitical risks, a weakening US dollar, and rising precious metals, copper prices were affected by tight supply at the mine end and weak downstream demand due to high prices, resulting in continuous inventory accumulation. The market is in a game between macro - level positives and weak reality, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels with limited upward potential. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [5][10] Summary by Directory 1. Main View and Strategy 1.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper oscillated at high levels. As of January 23, it closed at 101,340 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.57%. China's GDP grew by 5% in 2025, and the monetary policy in 2026 remains loose. The "14th Five - Year Plan" power grid investment will increase by 40%. Overseas geopolitical risks are rising rapidly, the US dollar is continuously weakening, and precious metals are strengthening. At the fundamental level, the shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates remains at a historical low. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike due to failed negotiations. US President Trump does not consider imposing additional tariffs on key minerals including copper for the time being, and the LME - COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed. High copper prices have put pressure on downstream operations in China, domestic inventory has been continuously accumulating, and copper prices have oscillated at high levels [5] 1.2 Supply Side - The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the processing fee has remained at a historical low. As of January 23, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 569,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.86%. As of January 23, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 49.8 US dollars/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to decline. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in December was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the annual total production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. In December, the supply of scrap - produced anode copper increased, and the sulfuric acid price was strong, so smelters had little willingness to actively reduce production. Affected by smelter maintenance and the statistical cycle in January, the electrolytic copper production is expected to decline month - on - month [8] 1.3 Demand Side - High copper prices have put pressure on downstream operations, but the copper foil industry's operating rate has increased against the trend. As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 67.98%. With the decline in copper prices, downstream orders have recovered, and the approaching Spring Festival has led enterprises to accelerate production and stock up, driving the operating rate up. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper rods, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively. High copper prices have seriously weakened the terminal enterprises' ability to accept high - priced raw materials, resulting in a significant shrinkage in order volume and a decline in the operating rate of copper strip enterprises. Most brass rod production enterprises have increased production to meet their annual output value targets, driving the industry's operating rate up. Large enterprises have stable orders and increased production at the end of the year to prepare for the New Year's Day holiday, leading to an increase in the operating rate. The copper foil industry's operating rate has increased for the 8th consecutive month, and the energy storage industry remains highly prosperous. The traditional end - of - year production rush in the downstream has supported the demand at a high level [9] 1.4 Inventory - Domestic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating, and COMEX copper inventory has continued to pile up. As of January 23, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 22.59 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.82%. As of January 22, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China monitored by SMM increased by 2.9% compared with January 15, and the total inventory increased by 203,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of January 23, the LME copper inventory was 171,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19.59%. The COMEX copper inventory was 562,600 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.63%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [9] 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - At the macro - level, China's GDP grew by 5% in 2025, the monetary policy in 2026 remains loose, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" power grid investment will increase by 40%. Overseas geopolitical risks are rising rapidly, the US dollar is continuously weakening, and precious metals are strengthening. At the fundamental level, the processing fee at the mine end continues to decline, and smelting losses are expanding. US President Trump said that he does not consider imposing additional tariffs on key minerals including copper for the time being, and the LME - COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed. The traditional off - season and high copper prices have suppressed consumption, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases at low prices. Social inventory has increased to 335,200 tons and continues to accumulate. Spot prices are generally at a discount, and trading is light. The market is in a game between macro - level positives and weak reality. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate at high levels with limited upward potential. It is necessary to be vigilant against the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [10] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, and the GDP in the fourth quarter increased by 4.5%. The GDP in 2025 exceeded 140 trillion yuan, achieving the annual growth target. In December 2025, China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and high - tech manufacturing showed good growth momentum. In 2025, China's fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with mining investment increasing by 2.5% and manufacturing investment increasing by 0.6%. China's LPR in January remained unchanged for the eighth consecutive month, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. The central bank deputy governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in 2026 [15][19][21] 2.2 Industrial Information Overview - In 2025, the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in Congo achieved its production target. Chile has lowered its copper production forecast for the next few years, and the peak production will be postponed for several years. First Quantum Minerals has lowered its copper production guidance for 2026 and 2027. In December 2025, China's scrap copper imports increased by 14.83% month - on - month. In 2025, China's cumulative refined copper production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile has been shut down due to a strike, tightening the global copper supply. Freeport - McMoRan reported its 2025 production and consumption data and its 2026 production forecast. The ICSG and WBMS data show that the global refined copper market had a supply surplus in November 2025. Freeport - McMoRan's Grasberg copper mine restart is progressing as planned [22][24] 3. Spot and Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premium and Discount - The spot premium of Shanghai copper has continued to decline, and market trading has remained light. The decline in copper prices during the week has improved trading volume, and demand has recovered slightly. It is expected that the Shanghai copper spot market will maintain a pattern of "high discount, weak trading" next week. The LME copper 0 - 3 has changed from a large premium to a discount. The premium of the copper spot contract over the three - month contract once exceeded 100 US dollars per ton, indicating strong near - term delivery demand and a shortage of deliverable spot inventory. US President Trump's statement has narrowed the LME - COMEX spread [29] 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of January 23, the Shanghai copper futures position was 231,437 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2.44%; the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 210,695.4 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 26.52%. As of January 16, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 9,618.35 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.54%. As of January 20, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 62,806 contracts, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% [31] 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply Side - The shortage of copper concentrates continues due to mine - end disturbances, and the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will continue to strike. As of January 23, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 569,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.86%. As of January 23, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 49.8 US dollars/ton, and the spot TC for copper concentrates continued to decline. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in December was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the annual total production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. Affected by smelter maintenance and the statistical cycle in January, the electrolytic copper production is expected to decline month - on - month [40] 4.2 Downstream Operating Rate - As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 67.98%, with a month - on - month increase of 10.51 percentage points. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper rods, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively. High copper prices have affected the operating rates of different downstream industries, but the copper foil industry has maintained a high and rising operating rate [44] 4.3 Inventory - As of January 23, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 22.59 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.82%. As of January 22, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China monitored by SMM increased by 2.9% compared with January 15, and the total inventory increased by 203,000 tons compared with the same period last year. As of January 23, the LME copper inventory was 171,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 19.59%. The COMEX copper inventory was 562,600 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.63%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [49]

Report Overview - The report is the "Yangtze River Futures Meal and Oil Weekly Report" dated January 26, 2026, focusing on the analysis of the meal and oil industries [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Views Soybean Meal - Before the tightening of supply and demand is realized, the price of soybean meal faces upward pressure. The near - month contracts are supported by destocking expectations and cost, but the upward space is limited. The 03 contract is expected to be strong in a narrow range, while the 05 contract may be weak due to the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America and loose domestic supply and demand [8]. Oils - Biodiesel and trade policies disrupt the oil market, leading to a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil is expected to be weak due to the expected increase in imports after the reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs, while soybean and palm oils have upward momentum but are limited by factors such as the abandonment of the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia and the unchanged expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [76][77]. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal 1. Market Review - As of January 23, the spot price in East China was 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The M2605 contract closed at 2751 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton. The basis price was 05 + 320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. US soybeans were oscillating strongly, and domestic soybean meal followed a low - level rebound. However, the good import crushing profit and loose supply and demand limited the upward space [8][10]. 2. Supply - The weather in South America is favorable, with a high soybean excellent rate and a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. From January to March in China, the arrival of soybeans will decrease, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal will gradually decline. However, from April to July, the arrival of soybeans will remain high, and the supply pressure will be large. The purchase progress of ships after March is slow, and the arrival from July to September may decrease slightly year - on - year [8]. 3. Demand - The current demand for soybean meal remains high. The high inventory of pigs and poultry, combined with the good cost - performance of soybean meal, supports the demand. In the third week of 2026, the soybean inventory of national oil mills decreased to 687.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.62% from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory continued to decline to 94.72 million tons, the lowest level in five months [8]. 4. Cost - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of domestic soybean meal from May to August is 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September is 2760 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit has risen to around 100 yuan/ton [8]. Oils 1. Market Review - As of the week of January 23, the palm oil 05 contract rose 236 yuan/ton to 8910 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract rose 78 yuan/ton to 8094 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract fell 72 yuan/ton to 8991 yuan/ton. The prices of spot palm, soybean, and rapeseed oils also changed accordingly, and the basis prices of the three oils all declined [77][78]. 2. Palm Oil - High - frequency data shows that from January 1 - 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, while exports increased by 8.64 - 11.4%. The market expects a turning point in Malaysian inventory in January. In China, the inventory continued to increase slightly to 74.61 million tons as of January 16 due to increased purchases before the Indonesian tax increase and weak winter demand [77]. 3. Soybean Oil - US soybeans have rebounded recently due to strong export and crushing demand. The market expects the US biodiesel quota to increase in 2026. Although the overall harvest forecast of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged, the tight supply of soybeans from January to March in China may lead to a decrease in the operating rate of oil mills and support inventory destocking. As of January 16, the domestic soybean oil inventory decreased to 96.33 million tons [77]. 4. Rapeseed Oil - After the China - Canada negotiation, China plans to reduce the import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March, which is expected to increase imports. However, the current domestic supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is tight, and the inventory is at a low level. As of January 16, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory remained at 27.6 million tons [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy is to wait and see in the short term [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market lacks upward momentum before the Chinese New Year. The shipment speed of manufacturers has slowed down, and the middle and lower reaches have limited ability to digest high - level inventories. The market expects the production and sales to continue to weaken, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1050 - 1070 yuan/ton. There is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Investment Strategy - The main logic is that last week, the glass futures first fell and then rose, with a mid -阴线 on the weekly line. The supply remained unchanged, the market speculative demand weakened, and the overall inventory of the middle - stream was at a high level. The demand in the north was weak, and some processing plants will gradually have holidays. The production and sales may decline again before the Chinese New Year. The cost center of soda ash is expected to move down, and there is an opportunity to go long on glass and short on soda ash. The technical side shows that the bulls are slightly dominant, and the price is in a shock - adjustment stage [3] - The operation strategy is to wait and see in the short term [3][4] 3.2 Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of January 23, the 5mm float glass market price was 1,010 yuan/ton (-10) in North China, 1,060 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1,190 yuan/ton (0) in East China. The glass 05 contract closed at 1,064 yuan/ton last Friday, down 39 yuan from the previous week [10][11] - **Alkali - Glass Price Difference**: As of January 23, the soda ash futures price was 1,198 yuan/ton, the glass futures price was 1,064 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the two was 134 yuan/ton (+45) [12] - **Basis and Contract Spread**: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was - 4 yuan/ton (+39), and the 05 - 09 spread was - 106 yuan/ton (0) [14] 3.3 Profit - **Natural Gas Process**: The cost was 1,568 yuan/ton (0), and the gross profit was - 378 yuan/ton (0) [18] - **Coal - Gas Process**: The cost was 1,166 yuan/ton (-3), and the gross profit was - 156 yuan/ton (-7) [18] - **Petroleum Coke Process**: The cost was 1,109 yuan/ton (0), and the gross profit was - 49 yuan/ton (0) [18] 3.4 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 149,535 tons/day (0), and there were 212 production lines in operation [20] 3.5 Inventory - As of January 23, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 53.216 million weight - boxes (+203,000). The inventory in North China was 8.453 million weight - boxes (+82,000); in Central China, it was 5.935 million weight - boxes (+55,000); in East China, it was 11.098 million weight - boxes (-90,000); in South China, it was 6.498 million weight - boxes (-90,000); in Southwest China, it was 10.97 million weight - boxes (0); the inventory in Shahe factory was 1.48 million weight - boxes (-120,000); and the inventory in Hubei factory was 3.94 million weight - boxes (+80,000) [24] 3.6 Deep - Processing - The comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass on January 22 was 105% (+2%) [28] - On January 23, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 43.6% (-0.5%) [28] - In mid - January, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.3 days (+0.7) [29] 3.7 Demand - **Automobile**: In December, China's automobile production was 3.296 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.272 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 157,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 217,000 vehicles. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.337 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.1% [35] - **Real Estate**: In December, China's real estate completion area was 208.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%; the new construction area was 53.13 million square meters (-19%); the construction area was 38.24 million square meters (-47%); and the commercial housing sales area was 94 million square meters (-17%). From January 12 to January 18, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.38 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year decrease of 35%. The real estate development investment in December was 419.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37% [42] 3.8 Cost - Side - Soda Ash - **Spot Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,260 yuan/ton (0) in North China, 1,235 yuan/ton (0) in East China, 1,240 yuan/ton (-10) in Central China, and 1,425 yuan/ton (0) in South China [44] - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,198 yuan/ton (+6) [48][49] - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 05 contract was 42 yuan/ton (-16) [48] - **Profit**: As of last Friday, the soda ash profit was - 40 yuan/ton (+4) [50] - **Cost**: The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,299 yuan/ton (-31), and the gross profit was - 96 yuan/ton (0); the cost of the co - production process was 1,698 yuan/ton (-36) [52] - **Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 771,700 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons), including 412,900 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons) and 358,800 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 2,700 tons). The loss was 121,200 tons (a month - on - month increase of 3,600 tons). The number of exchange soda ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week was 0 (a month - on - month decrease of 3,221). As of January 23, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5212 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 53,800 tons), including 696,700 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 41,300 tons) and 824,500 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 12,500 tons) [59][62] - **Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Rate**: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 454,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 42,200 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 371,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons. The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 106.98%, a week - on - week increase of 7.28%. The soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories in December was 27.2 days [65]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Urea maintenance devices have restart plans, daily output increases, and supply rises month - on - month. Agricultural fertilizer preparation in various regions follows up, mainly for reserve procurement. The replenishment of compound fertilizer raw materials increases the support for urea demand. Urea enterprise inventory levels are low compared to the same period last year. Recently, production and sales are stable, and prices fluctuate within the range of 1730 - 1830 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Changes - Urea futures prices were weak first and then strong. On January 23, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1,788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decline of 0.17%. The highest was 1,797 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1,756 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1,727 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decline of 0.97% [3][4] - The main - contract basis of urea weakened. On January 23, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 61 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 61) - (- 41) yuan/ton [3][8] - The 5 - 9 spread of urea fluctuated narrowly. On January 23, the 5 - 9 spread was 25 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of 25 - 29 yuan/ton [3][8] 3.2 Fundamental Changes 3.2.1 Supply - China's urea operating rate was 85.99%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating rate of gas - based enterprises was 58%, an increase of 3.82 percentage points from the previous week. The average daily output of urea was 203,400 tons. Some maintenance devices in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Henan resumed production, and the daily output increased to over 200,000 tons. The supply of goods was sufficient. Next week, the maintenance devices in Sichuan are planned to resume production, and there is still an expectation of an increase in supply [3][11] 3.2.2 Cost - The market price of anthracite was stable with a slight upward trend. As of January 22, the tax - inclusive price of washed anthracite small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi, was 880 - 930 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [3][15] 3.2.3 Demand - The average advance receipt of major urea producers was 5.9 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 98.7%. Currently, most agricultural demand is for reserve procurement. In terms of industrial demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers increased slightly, and the operating rate of melamine increased. Overall, production and sales were stable [17] - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 42.96%, an increase of 2.88 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 733,900 tons, an increase of 2.21 percentage points from the previous week. Some fertilizer enterprises were stocking up for concentrated post - holiday shipments. The production of sulfur - based fertilizers in Hubei gradually resumed, and the start - up of high - tower fertilizers in Henan increased significantly [21] - The operating rate of melamine enterprises was 59.27%, an increase of 4.98 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 31,780 tons. Some devices in Shanxi Fengxi Pinglu P3, Henan Juhua, Anhui Huatai, and Shandong Shuntian had short - term shutdowns for maintenance, while some devices in Shanxi Fengxi Pinglu P3, Shandong Hailitai, Xinji Jiuyuan, and Xinjiang Kuitun Jinjiang resumed production after maintenance [25] - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, and the demand support in the panel market weakened [25] 3.2.4 Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 822,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 677,000 tons compared to the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 213,000 tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 13,274, totaling 265,480 tons, an increase of 3,570 receipts or 71,400 tons compared to the same period last year [3][27] 3.3 Key Focus The report suggests focusing on the start - up situation of compound fertilizers, the reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the black sector first declined and then rose, showing overall weak performance. In terms of index fluctuations, the strength order of varieties was coke > hot-rolled coil > rebar > coking coal > iron ore. In the entire futures market, non-ferrous metals remained strong, chemicals strengthened collectively, while the black sector showed mediocre performance [4]. - Macro policy: Global uncertainty has intensified as the US imposed a new round of sanctions on Iran. Domestically, a package of policies on fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand has been introduced. Industry pattern: Last week, steel demand declined month-on-month, and inventory accumulated seasonally. However, the absolute inventory is currently low. On the raw material side, downstream enterprises replenished their stocks before the festival, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector first declined and then rose last week, showing overall weak performance [4][6]. 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - Non-ferrous metals remained strong, and chemicals strengthened. The black sector showed mediocre performance [4][8]. 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a weak trend, and iron ore had the largest decline [10]. 04 Profit and Valuation - The profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly, and the valuation of rebar futures was low. Rebar futures prices were slightly higher than the valley electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat electricity cost, with a low static valuation [5][13]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand declined month-on-month, and inventory accumulated seasonally. Currently, the absolute inventory is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is not significant [4][5][15]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore output remained stable. Steel mills started to replenish their stocks before the festival, and the inventory at steel mills and ports both increased. Iron ore shipments continued to decline, but based on previous shipment data, recent arrivals are still at a high level. It is expected to remain in an inventory accumulation pattern in the short term, with the support being the large discount of iron ore futures [5][24]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Raw coal output increased, and coking coal inventory continued to accumulate. Although coking plants started to replenish their stocks before the festival, mines had difficulty in destocking and still had a slight inventory increase [5][27]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke output remained flat, and inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches. Currently, the profit of coking plants is low. Recently, some coking plants proposed the first round of price increases, but coke futures have a premium over the spot [5][29]. 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar-iron ore ratio increased, and the hot-rolled coil-rebar spread widened [31]. 10 Key Data/Policy/News - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.0% year-on-year, exceeding 140 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan. - The central bank governor said that in 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations for monetary policy. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. - A package of policies on fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand has been introduced, including the establishment of a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment for the first time, guiding banks to newly issue 500 billion yuan in loans for private investment in small and medium-sized enterprises. - Recently, five departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Carrying out the Construction of Zero-Carbon Factories", aiming to gradually expand zero-carbon factory construction to industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, building materials, and textiles by 2030, exploring new paths for carbon reduction in traditional high-energy-consuming industries. - In 2025, China's crude steel output was 960.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; pig iron output was 836.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%; steel output was 1.44612 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. - On January 23 local time, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced a new round of sanctions on multiple entities and vessels related to Iran's energy and shipping systems, targeting the shipping and management network assisting Iran's oil, energy, and derivatives exports. - On January 21, Trump posted on social media that he had formulated a framework for an agreement on Greenland with NATO Secretary-General Rutte, so he would not implement the tariff increase measures on 8 European countries originally scheduled to take effect on February 1. - The final annualized quarterly growth rate of the US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3%, hitting the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. - The global bond market has experienced large-scale selling, and concerns about fiscal spending, new tariff threats, and doubts about the safe-haven status of US Treasuries have jointly triggered market volatility [38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions lightly and rolling for copper; strengthening waiting and seeing for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish trend for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda, benzene, rubber, urea, methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins; waiting and seeing for soda ash [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn; weak oscillation for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short - selling opportunities on rebounds for hogs; not advisable to chase short positions in the short term for eggs; being cautious about chasing high prices and waiting for rebounds to hedge at high prices for corn; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; weak oscillation for rapeseed oil, limited rebounds for soybean oil and palm oil [1] Core Views - Geopolitical disturbances are increasing, which strengthens the precious metals sector. Stock indices may trade in a range, and government bonds are expected to oscillate. The coal market has a wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals. Rebar is in a short - term range - bound state. Glass is expected to oscillate weakly. Copper is affected by the game between macro - level support and weak fundamentals. Aluminum may continue high - level adjustments. Nickel is affected by various factors and is recommended to be observed. Tin supply is tight, and it is recommended for range trading. Silver and gold are affected by geopolitical and economic factors, with their medium - term price centers moving up. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly. PVC may have bottomed out. Caustic soda has short - term delivery pressure. Benzene styrene has a high valuation and is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. Rubber has cost support and may continue to rise. Urea supply is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate. Methanol is affected by supply and demand and geopolitical factors. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly. Soda ash has supply - demand contradictions, and it is recommended to wait and see. Cotton and cotton yarn have long - term optimistic expectations. Apples and jujubes are in a weak oscillation state. Hogs are in a bottom - building stage, with different strategies for different periods. Eggs are not advisable to chase short positions in the short term. Corn is in a short - term balance and has a loose supply - demand pattern in the medium to long term. Soybean meal has different trends for different contracts. Oils have different trends, with rapeseed oil being weak and soybean and palm oil having limited rebounds [1][5][6][8][10][11][13][14][15][16][17][19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27][30][33][34][35][36][37][43][44] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Geopolitical disturbances increase, and the precious metals sector strengthens, causing stock indices to potentially trade in a range [1][5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. The long - end and ultra - long - end of government bonds face resistance in further decline, while short - end varieties have strong allocation enthusiasm [1][6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market has a wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals, with supply disturbances potentially limiting the downside, but demand weakness is the dominant factor [8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price rebounded on Friday, with a slightly low static valuation. In the short term, it is in a range - bound state due to a short - term policy vacuum and small supply - demand contradictions [8] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly within the range of 1050 - 1070. The manufacturer's shipping speed slows down, and the market lacks upward momentum [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions lightly and rolling. The price is in a high - level oscillation, with strong macro - level support but weak fundamentals. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of long - position profit - taking before the Spring Festival [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthening waiting and seeing. The price may continue high - level adjustments due to factors such as changes in supply and demand and macro - level sentiment [13] - **Nickel**: Waiting and seeing. Affected by factors such as Indonesia's quota reduction and weak fundamentals, the price has risen, but it is recommended to wait and see as the market has fully priced in [14] - **Tin**: Range trading or taking profit on previous long positions. The supply is tight, and the downstream maintains rigid demand. It is recommended to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [15][16] - **Silver**: Bullish trend. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, the medium - term price center moves up, and it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [16] - **Gold**: Range trading. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, the medium - term price center moves up, and it is recommended to trade in a range and be cautious about chasing high prices [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply and demand are both strong, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbance of Yichun's mining end [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. The bottom may have been reached. The supply - demand situation is still weak, but there are opportunities for structural upgrading. It is recommended to take a long - term low - buying approach [17][19] - **Caustic Soda**: Waiting and seeing. There is short - term delivery pressure, and the upside is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to supply - side adjustments and other factors [19] - **Benzene Styrene**: Range trading. The price has rebounded, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20][21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. The cost support is strong, and the price may continue to rise. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory and downstream demand [20][21] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate within the range of 1730 - 1830. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [22][23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the inland area recovers, and the demand is mixed. The price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and supply factors [24] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The cost support is strengthened, but the supply increases and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [24][25] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply - demand contradiction is relieved, and the downside is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The long - term expectation is optimistic, but it is recommended to be cautious in the short term [27] - **Apples**: Weak oscillation. The Spring Festival stocking is in progress, but the trading of farmers' goods is slow, and the prices in some areas are loose [27] - **Jujubes**: Weak oscillation. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading is stable [29][30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the production capacity is being reduced, but it is still above the equilibrium level, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices [30][31][33] - **Eggs**: Not advisable to chase short positions in the short term. The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the production capacity needs time to clear, and it is necessary to pay attention to external factors [33][34] - **Corn**: Being cautious about chasing high prices and waiting for rebounds to hedge at high prices. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Shorting on rallies. The short - term support is strong, but the long - term price is under pressure. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [36] - **Oils**: Weak oscillation for rapeseed oil, limited rebounds for soybean and palm oil. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up for soybean and palm oil and pay attention to spread trading [37][43][44]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - to - long - term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Exiting long positions on copper at high prices and waiting and seeing; strengthening observation on aluminum; waiting and seeing on nickel; range trading or taking profits on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; expecting silver to be strong; expecting lithium carbonate to move in a range [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda, and soda ash (temporarily waiting and seeing), styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; expecting polyolefins to be weak and volatile [1] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range, apples and jujubes to be weak and volatile [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Looking for short - selling opportunities on rebounds for hogs; not recommending short - chasing for eggs in the short - term; being cautious about chasing high for corn and waiting for rebounds to hedge; being bearish on soybean meal at high prices; expecting rapeseed oil to be weak and volatile, and the rebound of soybean and palm oil to be limited [1] 2. Core Views - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors. It analyzes the trends of different industries and gives corresponding investment strategies [1] 3. Summary by Categories Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to move in a range in the short - term, bullish in the medium - to - long - term, suggesting buying on dips. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term fluctuations [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. The yield curve shows a bull - flattening trend, with a hand - over from trading positions to allocation positions [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting short - term trading. Weak demand and high inventory pressure the price, but supply disruptions may limit the downside [7] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a range. The price is at a neutral valuation. Steel exports may weaken, and short - term trading within a range is recommended [7] - **Glass**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting waiting and seeing. Speculative sentiment has cooled, and the inventory is shifting to the middle - stream. The price may decline before the Spring Festival [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to fall after rising. Suggesting exiting long positions at high prices and waiting and seeing. The short - term support for copper prices has decreased, and the inventory is expected to increase [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be volatile at a high level, suggesting strengthening observation. The supply of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the demand is entering the off - season, and the price may adjust at a high level [13] - **Nickel**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting waiting and seeing. The nickel ore is strong, but the overall fundamentals are weak, and the price may be under pressure [15] - **Tin**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading or taking profits on previous long positions. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is stable [16] - **Silver**: Expected to be strong, suggesting holding long positions and being cautious about new positions. Geopolitical tensions and economic data support the price [17] - **Gold**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading and being cautious about chasing high. Geopolitical and economic factors support the price [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Expected to move in a range. The supply and demand are both strong, and the price may be affected by the mining permit in Yichun [18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached, suggesting range trading. The domestic demand is weak, but the low valuation and export policies may bring opportunities [18][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to be volatile at a low level, suggesting waiting and seeing. The demand is weak, and the supply is high, with pressure on the price [20] - **Styrene**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading. The price has rebounded, but the high valuation requires caution [22] - **Rubber**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading. The supply is shrinking, and the cost supports the price, but the inventory pressure exists [22] - **Urea**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable, with the price fluctuating within a range [23] - **Methanol**: Expected to move in a range, suggesting range trading. The supply is recovering, and the demand is mixed, with the price being affected by geopolitical and inventory factors [24] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to be weak and volatile. The supply and demand both have changes, and the price may have limited upside [25] - **Soda Ash**: Suggesting waiting and seeing. The supply is in excess, but the cost support may limit the decline [25] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to adjust in a range. The global cotton supply - demand balance is improving, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [28] - **Apples**: Expected to be weak and volatile. The Spring Festival stocking is in progress, but the trading volume is not high [28] - **Jujubes**: Expected to be weak and volatile. The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost over, and the market trading is stable [30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Expected to build a bottom. The spot price has stopped falling, and the futures price has rebounded. In the short - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended; in the long - term, being cautious about bullishness and hedging at high profits [30][31] - **Eggs**: Expected to rebound at a low level. The short - term spot price is expected to be strong, not recommending short - chasing. In the medium - term, the supply pressure may be relieved; in the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [33][34] - **Corn**: Expected to correct at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and being cautious about chasing high. In the long - term, the supply - demand is relatively loose [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. The short - term support is strong, and the long - term price may be under pressure. Suggesting being bullish on the near - term contract and bearish on the far - term contract [37][38] - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound is limited. Rapeseed oil is expected to be weak and volatile, and the rebound of soybean and palm oil is limited. Suggesting being cautious about chasing high for soybean and palm oil and paying attention to the narrowing spread strategy [38][44]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the long - term and suggest buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal suggests short - term trading; Rebar suggests range trading; Glass suggests selling on rallies [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests closing long positions on rallies and waiting; Aluminum suggests strengthening observation; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing; Tin suggests range trading or taking profits on previous long positions; Gold suggests range trading; Silver is expected to be relatively strong; Lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC suggests a low - buying strategy; Caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary waiting; Styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; Polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a range; Apples and jujubes are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs suggest waiting for rallies to short; Eggs suggest not shorting in the short - term; Corn suggests caution when chasing highs and waiting for rallies to hedge; Soybean meal suggests shorting on rallies; Oils and fats are expected to be weakly volatile [1] Core Views The report provides trading guidance for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the current situation, future trends, and trading strategies for each product [1] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: In the long - term, they are bullish. Due to reduced geopolitical disturbances, they may trade in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade in a range. There is a relay from trading to allocation, with yields on the long - end falling more [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to trade in a range. Due to weak fundamentals and high inventory pressure, short - term trading is recommended [6][7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade in a range. With neutral valuation and short - term supply - demand balance, range trading is the main strategy [7] - **Glass**: It is expected to be weakly volatile. With inventory transfer to the middle - stream and weakening demand, it is recommended to sell on rallies [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to fall after rising. With short - term support weakening and inventory increasing, it is recommended to close long positions on rallies [10][11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade at a high level. With supply increasing and demand entering the off - season, it is recommended to strengthen observation [13] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade in a range. With a mixed fundamental situation and full market pricing, it is recommended to wait and see [14][15] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. With tight supply and stable demand, range trading or taking profits on previous long positions is recommended [16] - **Silver**: It is expected to be relatively strong. Due to geopolitical tensions and economic data trends, it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious when opening new positions [17] - **Gold**: It is expected to trade in a range. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, range trading is recommended and chasing highs should be cautious [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply and demand factors in balance, price volatility is expected to continue [18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached. With weak domestic demand and high inventory, but low valuation and potential policy support, a long - term low - buying strategy is recommended [18][20] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade at a low level. With high supply and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see [20] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade in a range. With high valuation and uncertain cost - supply - demand improvement, range trading is recommended [21][22] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply reduction and inventory increase, and no obvious driving force, range trading is recommended [22][23] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply increasing and demand stable, it is recommended to trade within a range of 1730 - 1830 [24][25] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply recovery and weak traditional demand, and some regions being strong, range trading is recommended [25] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be weakly volatile. With cost support and inventory transfer, the upside is limited, and shorting on rallies is recommended [26][27] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. With supply contraction and cost support, the downside may be limited [28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to adjust in a range. With production reduction and consumption increase, short - term caution and long - term optimism are recommended [29] - **Apples**: They are expected to be weakly volatile. With slow sales in the main production areas and price fluctuations [29] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to be weakly volatile. With the end of raw material acquisition in Xinjiang and stable market transactions [31] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: They are expected to form a bottom in a range. With high supply pressure in the short - term and slow capacity reduction in the long - term, shorting on rallies and hedging on profits are recommended [31][33] - **Eggs**: They are expected to rebound from a low level. With low - level spot price increase and uncertain long - term supply, shorting should be cautious and hedging on rallies can be considered [33][34] - **Corn**: It is expected to correct from a high level. With short - term supply - demand balance and long - term supply being relatively loose, caution when chasing highs and hedging on rallies are recommended [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade at a low level. With short - term support and long - term pressure, shorting on rallies is recommended [37][38] - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound is limited. With different supply - demand situations for different varieties, short - term caution when chasing highs and spread trading are recommended [38][43]