Report Industry Investment Ratings Macroeconomic and Financial - Index: Long - term optimistic, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1][7] - Rebar: Range trading [1][7] - Glass: Sell on rallies [1][8] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Exit long positions on rallies and wait and see [1][10] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1][13] - Nickel: Wait and see [1][14] - Tin: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions [1][15] - Gold: Range trading [1][18] - Silver: Bullish [1][16] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound [1][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Range trading [1][20] - Caustic soda: Temporarily wait and see [1][21] - Soda ash: Temporarily wait and see [1][28] - Styrene: Range trading [1][22] - Rubber: Range trading [1][22] - Urea: Range trading [1][25] - Methanol: Range trading [1][25] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound [1][26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range adjustment [1][28] - Apples: Weakly range - bound [1][29] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound [1][30] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Short - term rebound, roll short opportunities [1][32] - Eggs: Not advisable to short in the short term [1][35] - Corn: Be cautious about chasing highs, wait for rebounds to hedge [1][37] - Soybean meal: Bearish on rallies [1][39] - Oils: Weakly range - bound [1][40] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures products in different industries, considering factors such as supply - demand relations, cost changes, geopolitical situations, and policy impacts [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macroeconomic and Financial - Index: Although the external environment is deteriorating and may put pressure on the index, it is still optimistic in the long - term, and investors can buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Yields of various maturities declined yesterday, with the long - end declining more. The market shows a situation where trading positions are passing on to allocation positions, and treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment due to weak fundamentals. Although supply may be tightened, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure. Short - term trading is recommended [7] - Rebar: Futures prices are weakly running. The valuation is neutral, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Range trading is the main strategy [7] - Glass: Speculative sentiment has cooled. Although the inventory pressure of float glass factories has eased, the inventory in the middle reaches has increased. Demand may decline before the Spring Festival, and prices are expected to be weakly range - bound. Sell on rallies [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Prices have risen first and then fallen, and are in a high - level range. Although the long - term supply - demand shortage is expected, short - term support has decreased. Investors can exit long positions on rallies [10][11][12] - Aluminum: The prices of bauxite are under pressure to decline. The supply of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable, but demand is entering the off - season. The market may continue to adjust at a high level, and investors are advised to strengthen observation [13] - Nickel: Although the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted prices, the current market has fully priced in. The fundamentals are weak, and investors are advised to wait and see [14] - Tin: Supply is tight, and downstream consumption maintains rigid demand. Prices are expected to be range - bound. Range trading or taking profit on previous long positions is recommended [15][16] - Gold and silver: Geopolitical tensions have increased, and the US economic data is weak. The mid - term price centers of gold and silver have moved up. Gold is suitable for range trading, and silver is recommended to hold long positions [16][17][18] - Lithium carbonate: Supply and demand are both in a state of change. The price is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mine end [18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The bottom may have emerged. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, the valuation is low, and there may be structural opportunities in the long - term. Range trading is recommended [20] - Caustic soda: Demand is difficult to support, and supply pressure is large. There is short - term delivery pressure, and investors are advised to wait and see [21] - Soda ash: Supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong. The downward space of the market may be limited, and investors are advised to temporarily leave the market and wait and see [28] - Styrene: The previous rebound was fast, but the current valuation is high. Range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [22] - Rubber: The bottom support of natural rubber is weakening, and the seasonal inventory accumulation trend remains unchanged. The market may be weakly range - bound in the short - term [22] - Urea: Supply is increasing, demand is relatively stable, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer start - up and export policies [25] - Methanol: The supply in the inland area has recovered, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins remains high, but the traditional terminal demand is weak. The price in some areas is strong, and range trading is recommended [25] - Polyolefins: The cost support is strengthened, but the upward space of prices is limited. PE and PP are expected to be weakly range - bound, and short on rallies is the main strategy [26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Global cotton supply has decreased, and demand has increased. Although there is a high - level correction in the short - term, the long - term expectation is optimistic [28] - Apples: The Spring Festival stocking is in progress, but the transaction of fruit farmers' goods is not fast. Prices are expected to be weakly range - bound [29][30] - Jujubes: The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the market transactions in Hebei and Guangdong are okay. Prices are expected to be weakly range - bound [30] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The short - term price is under pressure due to supply and demand factors. In the long - term, the price may be affected by capacity reduction. Short on rallies is recommended for off - season contracts, and be cautious about bullishness for far - month contracts [32][34] - Eggs: The short - term spot price is expected to be strong, not advisable to short. In the medium - term, the pressure of new production is not large. In the long - term, the capacity clearance still takes time, and attention should be paid to external factors [35][37] - Corn: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Be cautious about chasing highs and wait for rebounds to hedge [37][38][39] - Soybean meal: The short - term price is supported by cost, and the far - month price is under pressure. Bearish on rallies is the main strategy [39] - Oils: The short - term trends of different oils are differentiated. Rapeseed oil is weakly range - bound, and the rebounds of soybean oil and palm oil are limited. Attention can be paid to the narrowing strategy of the spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil and between rapeseed oil and soybean oil [40][45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - China plans to lower the tariff on Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March 1st, which is expected to restart the procurement of Canadian rapeseed and ease the domestic rapeseed supply in the future. However, the details of the tax reduction have not been finalized, and the short - term supply of domestic rapeseed oil remains tight, limiting the decline of futures prices [4][10]. - If the tax reduction is implemented, the import profit of Canadian rapeseed will improve significantly, which will stimulate domestic traders to increase purchases. The annual import volume may approach the 5 - 6 million tons level of 2023 - 2024. After April, the supply - demand of rapeseed and rapeseed oil will be more relaxed, but before April, the supply - demand will remain relatively tight [1][9][10]. - The implementation of the Canadian rapeseed tax reduction is expected to enhance the expectation of marginal improvement in the tight supply - demand of domestic rapeseed in the far - month. It has a bearish impact on the rapeseed oil futures price overall. In the short term, the price of the rapeseed oil 05 contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and in the long - term, the rapeseed oil price is bearish [2][10]. Summary by Related Content Trade Agreement - From January 14 - 17, 2026, Canadian Prime Minister Carney led a delegation to visit China. After the visit, Carney said that China and Canada had reached a preliminary agreement to mutually lower tariffs on key commodities. China will lower the tariff on Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March 1st, and Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese - made electric vehicles to enter its market at a 6.1% tax rate [1][4]. Impact on Import Profit - In 2025, China's import control on Canadian rapeseed products tightened. After August 14, importers had to pay a 75.8% deposit to the customs, resulting in a serious deterioration of import profit. On January 19, 2026, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed for the March shipment was as high as 7,835 yuan/ton, and the import profit was - 2,992 yuan/ton. If calculated at a 15% import tax, the import cost would drop to 4,698 yuan/ton, and the import profit would soar to 145 yuan/ton [5]. Past Import Situation - In normal years, Canadian rapeseed products account for about 90% of China's total rapeseed imports. In 2025, due to anti - dumping measures, China's import volume of Canadian rapeseed decreased significantly. From January to November 2025, China imported 2.45 million tons of rapeseed (a year - on - year decrease of 62%), including 2.33 million tons of Canadian rapeseed (a year - on - year decrease of 62%). By the week of January 16, 2026, the rapeseed inventory in coastal areas was only 60,000 tons of Australian rapeseed, a year - on - year decrease of 89%. The coastal + East China rapeseed oil inventory was 276,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43% [6]. Future Supply - Demand Forecast - If the tax reduction is implemented, China is expected to import a large amount of Canadian rapeseed in 2026, and the actual import volume may approach the 5 - 6 million tons level of 2023 - 2024. If oil mills start to buy Canadian rapeseed for the March shipment now, it will arrive in China as early as April. After April, the supply - demand of rapeseed and rapeseed oil will be more relaxed, but before April, the supply - demand will remain relatively tight [1][9][10]. Market Outlook and Focus - The implementation of the Canadian rapeseed tax reduction is expected to enhance the expectation of marginal improvement in the tight supply - demand of domestic rapeseed in the far - month, which has a bearish impact on the rapeseed oil futures price overall. In the short term, the price of the rapeseed oil 05 contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and in the long - term, the rapeseed oil price is bearish. The follow - up should focus on the implementation time and specific form of the tax reduction, the result of the final review of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed on March 9, and the procurement progress of domestic Canadian rapeseed after the tax reduction [2][10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds expected to trade sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; selling on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Exiting long positions on copper on rallies; strengthening observation on aluminum; observing nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish sideways for silver; range - bound for lithium carbonate [1][11][13][17][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Buying on dips for PVC; temporary observation for caustic soda and soda ash; range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; bearish sideways for polyolefins [1][20][22][23][28][30] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Sideways adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn; bearish sideways for apples and jujubes [1][30][31][32] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short - term selling on rallies for near - term hog contracts, cautiously bullish on far - term contracts; hedging post - holiday 02 and 03 egg contracts on rallies; short - term cautious about chasing high for corn, hedging on rallies for grain holders; bullish on near - term soybean meal contracts, bearish on far - term contracts; bearish sideways for fats and oils [1][33][37][39][41] Core Views - Global geopolitical events, such as Trump's tariff policies and military threat to Iran, along with changes in Fed chairmanship expectations, impact market sentiment and asset prices [5][12][13][17][19] - Central bank policies, like interest rate adjustments, influence the performance of stocks, bonds, and other financial products [5][6] - Supply and demand fundamentals, including production, inventory, and consumption, are the main factors determining the price trends of various commodities [8][9][11][12][14][15][17][19][22][23][26][27][35][36][38][39][40][41][43][44][46] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Affected by geopolitical events and central bank policies, expected to trade sideways in the short - term and be bullish in the long - term, suggesting buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: After the central bank's interest rate adjustment, the bond market shows a deep "V" trend, expected to trade sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Due to weak demand and high inventory, prices are under pressure, suggesting short - term trading [8] - **Rebar**: With neutral valuation and short - term balanced supply and demand, it is expected to trade sideways in the short - term, with range trading as the main strategy [8] - **Glass**: With weak demand and increasing mid - stream inventory, it is expected to trade bearishly sideways, suggesting selling on rallies [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations, it is expected to trade sideways at a high level, suggesting exiting long positions on rallies [11][12][13] - **Aluminum**: With stable supply and weakening demand, it is expected to trade sideways at a high level, suggesting strengthening observation [14] - **Nickel**: Affected by Indonesian policies and supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to trade sideways, suggesting observation [15] - **Tin**: With tight supply and stable demand, it is expected to trade sideways, suggesting range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [16][17] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by geopolitical events and Fed policies, they are expected to trade sideways with a bullish bias, suggesting holding long positions for silver and range trading for gold [17][19] - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply - demand balance and cost factors, it is expected to trade range - bound [19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With low valuation and potential policy support, the bottom may have been reached, suggesting buying on dips [20][22] - **Caustic Soda**: With weak demand and high supply, it is expected to trade sideways at a low level, suggesting temporary observation [23] - **Soda Ash**: With supply - demand imbalance and cost support, it is suggested to temporarily exit and observe [30] - **Styrene, Rubber, Urea, and Methanol**: All expected to trade sideways, with range trading as the main strategy [22][24][26][27] - **Polyolefins**: With weakening demand and cost support, they are expected to trade bearishly sideways [28] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: After a long - term uptrend, they are expected to adjust sideways in the short - term, with a bullish long - term outlook [30] - **Apples and Jujubes**: With slow sales in the market, they are expected to trade bearishly sideways [31][32] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: With high supply pressure in the short - term and potential capacity reduction in the long - term, short - term selling on rallies for near - term contracts and cautious bullishness on far - term contracts are suggested [33][36] - **Eggs**: With high valuation in the short - term and potential supply reduction in the long - term, hedging post - holiday contracts on rallies is suggested [37][39] - **Corn**: With balanced short - term supply and demand and a looser long - term supply - demand pattern, short - term caution about chasing high and hedging on rallies for grain holders are suggested [39][40] - **Soybean Meal**: With a bearish long - term outlook and a relatively tight near - term supply - demand situation, different trading strategies for near - term and far - term contracts are suggested [41] - **Fats and Oils**: Expected to open lower and trade bearishly sideways, suggesting observing the narrowing spread strategies for rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean 05 contracts [41][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 710 tons to 24,510 tons week - on - week, and December production increased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production. Enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfer, affecting supply. In November 2025, China imported 729,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%. The import volume of lithium carbonate in November was about 22,055 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 15%. The cost of some lithium carbonate manufacturers using imported lithium ore is inverted. [5][6] - Demand side: The overall production schedule in January is expected to decline month - on - month, while that of large battery cell manufacturers increased by 2% in November. In December, the combined output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 201.7GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. The combined export was 32.6GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%. The sales volume was 199.3GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.1% and a year - on - year increase of 57.5%. Policies are expected to support the growth of the new - energy vehicle market. [6] - Inventory: This week, lithium carbonate inventory showed a slight accumulation. Factory inventory decreased by 476 tons, market inventory decreased by 1,593 tons, and futures inventory increased by 2,098 tons. [6] - Strategy: Supply is affected by mine production and imports, and demand is strong but may decline in January. There is a risk of Yichun mining license, and cost is rising. It is expected that the import of South American lithium salts will supplement supply, and prices will continue to fluctuate. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views - **Supply**: Production decreased last week but increased in December. Mines in some areas are affected, and imports of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate have different trends. The cost of some manufacturers is under pressure. [5] - **Demand**: Production schedules vary in different months. Battery output, export, and sales are growing, and policies support new - energy vehicle sales. [6] - **Inventory**: There is a slight accumulation of inventory with different changes in factory, market, and futures inventories. [6] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering supply, demand, and cost factors, prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of Yichun mining end disturbances. [6] 3.2. Key Data Tracking - **Price Data**: There are data on the spot price of lithium carbonate, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the average price of lithium concentrate. [8][16][18] - **Production Data**: There are data on the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, the production of different raw - material - based lithium carbonate in December 2024, the production of power and other batteries, and the production of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. [9][11][20][21] - **Inventory Data**: There are data on the weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, including factory inventory. [13][16] - **Import Data**: There are data on the import volume of lithium concentrate, lithium carbonate, and lithium spodumene. [5][35][38] - **Other Data**: There are data on the difference between domestic power - battery output and installed capacity, and the prices of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. [23][37][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions have intensified due to the Trump administration's threat of military action against Iran, and the expectation of Hassett becoming the Fed Chair has changed, causing precious metal prices to remain strong. The Fed held its December FOMC meeting, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and initiating a reserve management - style balance - sheet expansion. The US employment situation has slowed down, and Powell stated that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut rates. With the expected change in Hassett's appointment, the market anticipates fewer rate cuts this year. US economic data has shown a downward trend, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. The lease rates of platinum and palladium remain high, and their prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the US November PCE data to be released on Thursday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Gold: Due to the Trump administration's threat of military action against Iran, geopolitical tensions have risen, and the expectation of Hassett becoming the Fed Chair has changed. Gold prices have shown a strong - side oscillation. As of last Friday, COMEX gold closed at $4,601 per ounce, up 1.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,650, and the lower support level is $4,500 [6]. - Silver: Due to the same factors and the continued shortage of silver spot, silver prices have risen strongly. As of last Friday, the weekly gain was 12.7%, closing at $90 per ounce. The lower support level is $87, and the upper resistance level is $95 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - Precious metal prices will continue to be strong. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December and started balance - sheet expansion. The US employment situation is weakening, and the expected change in Hassett's appointment has led to a decrease in the expected number of rate cuts this year. US economic data is deteriorating, and there are concerns about the fiscal situation and Fed independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain. Silver spot is in short supply, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. Platinum and palladium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the US November PCE data on Thursday [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Economic data: The US December CPI annual rate (unadjusted) was 2.7%, in line with expectations and the previous value; the US November PPI annual rate was 3%, higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.7%; the US November retail sales monthly rate was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.4% and the previous value of 0; the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 10 was 1.98 million, lower than the expected 2.15 million and the previous value of 2.08 million [23]. 3.4 Current Week's Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies - Kansas City Fed President Schmid opposed rate cuts, stating that inflation is "overheating" and that Trump's policies will boost economic momentum, putting upward pressure on prices. He saw little reason for further rate cuts and emphasized the Fed's independence. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased last week, possibly due to challenges in seasonal adjustment. The number decreased by 9,000 to 1.98 million, lower than the expected 2.15 million. - President Trump hesitated to nominate Kevin Hassett as the Fed Chair, hoping he would continue as a White House advisor, increasing the uncertainty of finding the next Fed Chair [24]. 3.5 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 5,474.74 kg to 1,123,953 kg this week, while SHFE inventory increased by 2,400 kg to 100,053 kg. - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 329,201.37 kg to 13,348,267.37 kg, while SHFE inventory increased by 6,581 kg to 626,843 kg [13]. 3.6 Fund Holdings - As of January 13, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 230,463 contracts, an increase of 16,720 contracts from last week. - The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 30,625 contracts, an increase of 2,093 contracts from last week [13]. 3.7 This Week's Focus - On Thursday, January 22, at 23:00, the US November PCE price index annual rate will be released. - On Friday, January 23, at 22:45, the preliminary value of the US January SPGI manufacturing PMI will be released [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report Core Views - The supply pressure of live pigs remains high, and the rebound of futures prices is under pressure. In the short - term, the spot is firm and macro funds boost the market, but the hedging pressure above 12,000 for off - season contracts increases. In the long - term, the supply in the first quarter continues to grow, and the price after the Spring Festival is under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong but still above the equilibrium level [5][54]. - The supply pressure of eggs still exists, and the rebound of the futures price is restricted. Although the demand before the Spring Festival drives up the egg price, the sufficient supply limits the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure still exists, and the market needs to go through a bottom - grinding process [6][78]. - The short - term supply and demand of corn are balanced, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is looser year - on - year, which restricts the upside space [7][104]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Feed and Livestock Views Summary 3.1.1 Live Pigs - **Period - Spot End**: As of January 16, the national spot price was 12.69 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2503 was up 210 yuan/ton. The high price suppresses consumption, but the slow enterprise出栏 rhythm and other factors drive up the price [5][54]. - **Supply End**: The inventory of reproductive sows is slowly decreasing, but the supply remains high before the first half of the year. The supply pressure in the first quarter is large according to piglet data. The planned出栏 volume of large - scale enterprises in January decreases, the出栏 weight increases, and the secondary fattening is sporadic [5][54]. - **Demand End**: The slaughter rate and volume decline, the fresh - sales rate increases, and the frozen - product inventory decreases. The Spring Festival stocking period has not started, and the demand growth is weak [5][54]. - **Cost End**: The prices of piglets and binary reproductive sows rise, the self - breeding and self - raising profit turns positive, and the cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increases slightly [5][54]. - **Weekly Summary**: There is a risk of pig price decline in the short - term, and the price is not optimistic during the Spring Festival and after. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong but still above the equilibrium level [5][54]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short - term, wait for the opportunity to short on rebounds. In the long - term, the industry can hedge at high prices when the profit is positive [5][54]. 3.1.2 Eggs - **Period - Spot End**: As of January 16, the average price in the main production areas was 3.6 yuan/jin, up 0.37 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of eggs 2603 was up 32 yuan/500 kg. The approaching Spring Festival drives up the egg price [6][78]. - **Supply End**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in January is at an average level, and the inventory is slowly decreasing but still large. In the long - term, the supply pressure will gradually ease, but it still takes time [6][78]. - **Demand End**: The approaching Spring Festival drives up the demand, and the substitution demand is good. The inventory in the production link is not large, while that in the circulation link is relatively high [6][78]. - **Weekly Summary**: The egg price rises seasonally in the short - term, but the sufficient supply limits the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [6][78]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait for the spot price increase to be less than expected and hedge the 03 contract after the Spring Festival at high prices [6][78]. 3.1.3 Corn - **Period - Spot End**: As of January 16, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of corn 2603 was up 18 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are balanced, and the price is at a high level [7][104]. - **Supply End**: The national grain - selling progress is 53%, and the supply is relatively average. The import of corn increases, and the inventory in ports decreases [7][104]. - **Demand End**: The feed demand is rigid, but the increase in corn price may lead to a shift to wheat procurement. The deep - processing demand is limited by factors such as high inventory and low profit [7][104]. - **Weekly Summary**: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the price is at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is looser year - on - year [7][104]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short - term, be cautious about chasing high prices, and hedging at high prices when the price rebounds. In the long - term, the upside space is restricted [7][104]. 3.2 Variety Industry Data Analysis 3.2.1 Live Pigs - **Weekly Market Review**: The futures price of live pigs 2503 rose, the basis decreased slightly, and the spot price increased [13]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: Data on supply, demand, cost, profit, etc. show that the supply pressure is large, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit turns positive [10]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of reproductive sows is slowly decreasing, the production performance is improving, and the supply in the first quarter is expected to be high [17]. 3.2.2 Eggs - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot and futures prices of eggs increased, and the basis strengthened [59]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: Data on price, supply, demand, inventory, and profit show that the supply pressure exists, and the demand before the Spring Festival drives the price up [60]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of laying hens is slowly decreasing, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the long - term [78]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot and futures prices of corn increased, and the basis strengthened [84]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: Data on price, supply, demand, inventory, and profit show that the short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is looser [85]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the import increases, and the demand is rigid but the deep - processing demand is limited [104].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, short - term market needs to digest policy impact, expected to be mainly in shock consolidation with limited upward space. In the long run, the three cornerstones driving the market remain stable, and the policy combination aims to build a "slow - bull" market. The stock index may fluctuate, and short - term attention can be paid to trading volume changes, while mid - term focus on the improvement of fundamentals. [10] - For government bonds, risk preference has decreased, which is a marginal positive for bonds, but the supply of local bonds in late January has increased, and the imbalance between supply and demand at the long - end has not been effectively alleviated. Government bonds may fluctuate. [13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Stock index trend review: Last week, the stock index showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.45%. [10] - Core view: Short - term market to digest policy, expected to be in shock, long - term "slow - bull" market possible. [10] - Technical analysis: MACD indicates the market index may fluctuate weakly. [10] - Strategy outlook: Range - bound shock. [10] Government Bond Strategy Suggestions - Government bond trend review: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.09%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.05%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03%. [13] - Core view: Risk preference decline is positive for bonds, but supply is a concern. [13] - Technical analysis: MACD shows the T main contract may fluctuate strongly. [13] - Strategy outlook: Fluctuating operation. [12] Key Data Tracking PMI - In December, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1%, returning to the boom - bust line after 8 months, significantly stronger than the seasonal average. [20] - The PMI of high - tech manufacturing industries rebounded significantly by 2.4 pct to 52.5%. [20] - Large and medium - sized enterprises led the improvement, although the PMI of small enterprises declined slightly. [20] CPI - In November, CPI increased year - on - year and PPI was positive month - on - month, due to seasonal factors, low - base effect and "anti - involution". [23] - CPI has been fluctuating below 1% for 33 consecutive months, and PPI has been negative for 38 consecutive months, indicating weak domestic demand. [23] - CPI is expected to continue to rise during the year - end and Spring Festival, and PPI may also rebound. [23] Import and Export - In November, China's exports were $330.35 billion, imports were $218.67 billion, and the trade surplus was $111.68 billion. [25] - Labor - intensive products, mechanical and electrical products, and high - tech products drove the overall export in November by - 1.33%, 5.81%, and 2.01% respectively, with an increase in the driving rate compared to last month. [25] - Exports to the EU, Africa, and Latin America drove the year - on - year increase in exports in November, but exports in December may be under pressure. [26] Industrial Added Value - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 4.8%, and the service industry production index dropped to 4.2%. [27] - The reasons for the decline are the suppression of key industries by "anti - involution" and the high base established after policy implementation last year. [30] Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the estimated fixed - asset investment in November decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, slightly rebounding from October. [33] - Private investment growth rate rebounded to - 12.9%, and public investment growth rate continued to decline to - 8.9%. [33] - Infrastructure and real estate investment growth rates are still at a low level, while manufacturing investment has a slight rebound. [33] Social Retail - In November, social retail sales decreased to 1.3% year - on - year, the weakest since 2023. [36] - The reasons for the decline are the weakening of durable goods consumption, the weak performance of "Double Eleven" sales, and the weak performance of post - real - estate cycle consumption. [36] Social Financing - In November, the new social financing was 2.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 trillion yuan. Corporate bonds and non - standard financing were the main supports, while government bonds and credit were the main drags. [39] - Bill financing continued, and the year - on - year increase of long - term loans for residents and enterprises continued to decrease. [39] - The year - on - year growth rate of social financing remained at 8.5%, and the growth rate of credit in the social financing caliber remained at 6.3%. [39] - The growth rates of M1 and M2 declined, and attention should be paid to the process of deposit currentization. [39]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: US Copper Tariffs May Be Delayed, Bullish Sentiment Cools [1] Report Date - January 19, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's suspension of tariffs on key minerals, combined with the strengthening of the US dollar and the suppression of downstream market demand by high - priced copper, brings adjustment pressure to copper prices. Although the supply - shortage trend of copper concentrate is difficult to reverse, and there is still a logic for copper price increase due to global energy transformation and incremental demand, the short - term support has significantly decreased, and copper prices have entered a high - level shock pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Last Week's Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level. As of January 16, it closed at 100,770 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.8%. The shortage at the mine end was not substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrate remained at a historical low. The strike at Chile's Mantoverde copper mine continued. Downstream demand was limited, and domestic inventory continued to accumulate. Trump's statement on not considering tariff hikes narrowed the LME - COMEX arbitrage space. With the strengthening of the US dollar index and the increase in profit - taking sentiment, copper prices fluctuated at a high level [5]. 1.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: The shortage of copper concentrate continued. The strike at Mantoverde copper mine in Chile continued. As of January 16, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 547,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.32%. The spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was - 46.4 US dollars/ton. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The total electrolytic copper output in January is expected to decline month - on - month [8]. - **Demand**: The downstream was under pressure at high copper prices, but the copper foil industry's operating rate increased. As of January 15, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 57.47%. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper bars, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively [8]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventory continued to accumulate, and COMEX copper inventory continued to increase. As of January 16, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 21.35 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 18.26%. As of January 15, the total copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China increased by 17.2% week - on - week, and the total inventory increased by 2.128 million tons year - on - year. As of January 16, the LME copper inventory was 143,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.31%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 542,900 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% [8]. 1.3 Strategy Suggestions - Trump's suspension of tariff hikes on key minerals, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the suppression of downstream demand by high - priced copper bring adjustment pressure to copper prices. Although the supply - shortage trend at the mine end is difficult to reverse, and the logic for copper price increase still exists, the short - term support has decreased, and copper prices have entered a high - level shock pattern [9]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - China's exports denominated in US dollars in December increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. In 2025, China's total goods trade volume exceeded 45 trillion yuan, and the trade surplus was expected to reach 1.2 trillion US dollars. - In 2025, China's social financing scale increased by more than 35 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion yuan. - The core CPI increase in the US in December was 2.6%, remaining at the lowest level in four years. - US retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. - The PPI in the US in November rebounded to 3% year - on - year, and the core PPI increased by 0% month - on - month [13]. 2.2 Industry News Overview - In November 2025, copper production in Chile decreased by 3% to 130,900 tons. - Japan's Pan Pacific Copper raised the 2026 copper premium in Japan to a record 330 US dollars/ton. - Chile's copper exports in December were 146,401 tons, and the exports of copper ore and concentrates were 1,170,302 tons. - In 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 3.031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. - In 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 532,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. - Rio Tinto's Nuton project reached a copper supply agreement with Amazon's cloud computing service department [14]. 3. Spot - Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premium and Discount - As the delivery approached, the discount converged. The high price and limited supply of high - quality copper drove up the premium. The spot premium of Shanghai copper was stable during the week, but the discount widened at the end of the week. The LME copper 0 - 3 premium widened, and the New York - London copper spread weakened. Trump's statement on not considering tariff hikes on key minerals narrowed the LME - COMEX arbitrage space [17]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of January 16, the trading position of Shanghai copper futures was 225,933 lots, a week - on - week increase of 9.42%, and the average daily trading volume was 286,732.4 lots, a week - on - week increase of 3.96%. As of January 9, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 9,769.24 lots, a week - on - week increase of 217.29%. As of January 13, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 63,391 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7.11% [20]. 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply Side - The shortage of copper concentrate continued due to mine - end disruptions. The strike at Mantoverde copper mine in Chile continued. As of January 16, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 547,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.32%. The spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was - 46.4 US dollars/ton. In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The total electrolytic copper output in January is expected to decline month - on - month [31]. 4.2 Downstream Operating Rates - As of January 15, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 57.47%. In December, the operating rates of copper strips, copper bars, copper tubes, and copper foils were 68.21%, 52.74%, 68.84%, and 88.2% respectively. The copper foil industry's operating rate increased for the eighth consecutive month [35]. 4.3 Inventory - As of January 16, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 21.35 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 18.26%. As of January 15, the total copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China increased by 17.2% week - on - week, and the total inventory increased by 2.128 million tons year - on - year. As of January 16, the LME copper inventory was 143,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.31%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 542,900 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4.81% [39].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, before the tightening of supply and demand is realized, the price faces upward pressure. The market shows a pattern of first tightening and then loosening, with near - term contracts showing relative strength and far - term contracts being relatively weak [7][77]. - In the oils and fats market, biodiesel and trade policies cause disruptions, leading to a differentiated trend. Short - term price fluctuations are significant, and the overall market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level [78]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Soybean Meal Period and Spot Market - As of January 16, the spot price of soybean meal in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3070 yuan/ton, and the M2605 contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton. The basis price increased by 30 yuan/ton. US soybeans showed a weak oscillation, and domestic soybean meal prices generally declined [7][9]. Supply Side - South American weather remains favorable, with a high soybean excellent rate and strong expectations of a bumper harvest. From January to March, domestic soybean arrivals will decrease, and the supply - demand situation will gradually tighten. From April to July, arrivals will remain high, with a large supply pressure [7]. Demand Side - Current soybean meal demand remains high, supported by high inventories of pigs and poultry and the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal. In the second week of 2026, the national soybean inventory of oil mills was 713.12 million tons, slightly increasing by 2.87 million tons from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory decreased significantly [7]. Cost Side - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents per bushel, and the cost of domestic soybean meal from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents per bushel, and the import cost is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton [7]. Market Outlook - Near - term contracts are supported by the expectation of inventory reduction and cost, with limited upward price space. Far - term contracts are weak due to the expectation of a South American bumper harvest. The pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term contracts will continue [7]. Oils and Fats Period and Spot Market - As of the week of January 16, the palm oil 05 contract decreased by 8 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 05 contract increased by 22 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 05 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton. Palm oil was weak due to Indonesia's cancellation of B50, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil were relatively strong [78]. Palm Oil - From January 1 to 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased, but the rate of decline and increase narrowed. Indonesia will not implement the B50 biodiesel plan in 2026. The domestic palm oil inventory slightly increased, and the 04 contract oscillated in the range of 3950 - 4200 [78]. Soybean Oil - USDA's January supply - demand report and December quarterly inventory report were bearish. Although China continues to purchase US soybeans, the market is worried about future purchases. The US biodiesel quota plan is expected to be positive for soybean oil demand. Domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories are high, but there are concerns about a decrease in arrivals from January to March, and the inventory decreased to 102.51 million tons [78]. Rapeseed Oil - China plans to reduce the import tariff of Canadian rapeseed to 15% before March, which is expected to lead to an increase in imports. Currently, the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil inventories are low, and the inventory decreased to 25 million tons. The short - term decline of near - term contracts is limited [78]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the oils and fats market is expected to open lower and then oscillate at a low level. Rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak, while soybean oil and palm oil are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing spread strategy between rapeseed and palm oil and rapeseed and soybean oil for the 05 contracts [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views - Polyolefins: The upward range is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The PE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly within the range, paying attention to the support at 6,600, and the PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, paying attention to the support at 6,500, with a focus on short - selling on rallies [8]. - Plastics: There are still supply - demand contradictions, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - PP: There is significant upward pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [52]. 3. Summary by Directory Plastic 3.1 Weekly Market Review - On January 16, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,695 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%. The average price of LDPE was 9,183.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.42%, the average price of HDPE was 7,262.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.20%, and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,004.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 309.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.34%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 175 yuan/ton (+74) [11]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on January 16, 2026, was - 175 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 28 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 203 yuan/ton, a decrease of 87 yuan/ton [17]. - **Spot Prices**: The report provides detailed spot prices and price changes for different regions and varieties of plastics [19][20]. - **Cost**: Last week, WTI crude oil closed at $59.22 per barrel, an increase of $0.44 per barrel from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at $64.20 per barrel, an increase of $1.18 per barrel from the previous week. The quoted price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 531 yuan/ton, compared with 59 yuan/ton last week; the profit of coal - based PE was 217 yuan/ton, an increase of 183 yuan/ton from the previous week [27]. - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production start - up rate was 81.59%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 66.98 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.48%. This week's maintenance loss was 11.27 tons, an increase of 1.40 tons from last week [33]. - **2026 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have polyethylene production capacity expansion plans in 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 5.5 million tons [36]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' polyethylene production lines are in a state of shutdown or maintenance, and some start - up times are undetermined [37]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 36.93%, a decrease of 0.96% from last week; the PE packaging film start - up rate was 48.15%, a decrease of 0.81% from last week, and the PE pipe start - up rate was 29.33%, a decrease of 0.17% from last week [39]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, currently accounting for 28.1%, with a difference of 4.7% from the annual average level; the low - pressure film shows a significant difference from the annual average data, currently accounting for 4.3%, with a difference of 3.5% from the annual average level [43]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 48.43 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10% [45]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 10,627 lots, a decrease of 738 lots from last week [49]. PP 3.3 Weekly Market Review - On January 16, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,496 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28% [54]. 3.4 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Prices**: The report provides price information and price changes for various PP products and related products [56][58]. - **Basis**: On January 16, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6,576.67 yuan/ton (+3.14%). The PP basis closed at 81 yuan/ton (+218), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 261 yuan/ton (-49) [60]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on January 16, 2026, was - 261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 299 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan/ton [69]. - **Cost**: The cost data is the same as that of plastics, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices rising, and the anthracite price remaining unchanged [73]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 619.27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102.91 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based PP was - 418.31 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.47 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - **Supply**: This week, the start - up rate of China's PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.62%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points from last week. The weekly production of PP pellets reached 77.58 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. The weekly production of PP powder reached 5.69 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.62% [84]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of enterprises are in a state of shutdown or maintenance, and some start - up times are undetermined [87]. - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream start - up rate was 52.53% (-0.07). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 42.60% (-0.32%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 63.56% (+0.32%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 57.93% (-0.11%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 33.87% (-0.11%) [89]. - **Import and Export Profits**: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - 251.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19.04 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the export profit was - 38.63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 18.82 US dollars/ton compared with last week [95]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 43.10 tons (-7.85%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 4.12% month - on - month; the trader's inventory decreased by 5.28% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 0.70% month - on - month [98]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 17,508 lots, an increase of 2,063 lots from last week [105].