1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term bearish, pay attention to decline risks [12][13] - Foreign exchange futures (US dollar index): Short - term volatile [16][17][18] - US stock index futures: Short - term high - level volatile, bullish in the long - term with profit support [20] - Stock index futures: Long - position balanced allocation [24] - Treasury bond futures: Short - term slightly bullish with limited upside, pay attention to rhythm and odds [27] - Palm oil: Short - term expected to open lower, pay attention to long - position opportunities around 8500 yuan [31] - International soybean oil: Short - term bottom - supported, expected to be volatile [31] - Domestic soybean oil: Short - term expected to be volatile [31] - Power coal: Price supported in the fourth quarter, pay attention to weather and policy [32] - Iron ore: Short - term volatile, pay attention to policy changes [34] - Bean粕: Follow import cost, pay attention to US soybean purchase and Brazilian output [36] - Sugar: Short - term expected to be volatile [41] - Cotton: Short - term expected to be volatile, long - term cautiously bullish [46] - Rebar/Hot - rolled coil: Short - term volatile [50][51] - Red dates: Wait - and - see, pay attention to price game and purchase progress [52] - Corn starch: 11 - contract CS - C expected to strengthen further, 01 - contract may have price - difference repair [54][55] - Corn: If government - stored wheat is used for feed, there may be short - selling opportunities [56] - Alumina: Wait - and - see [59] - Copper: Short - term expected to be volatile after reaching a high, recommend buying on dips [63] - Lead: Low - inventory, short - term bullish with high uncertainty, positive spread arbitrage possible [65] - Zinc: Short - term wait - and - see, pay attention to mid - line positive spread arbitrage [70][71] - Polysilicon: Policy and fundamentals in game, long - position holders can hold, consider call options [74] - Industrial silicon: Buying on dips is cost - effective [76] - Lithium carbonate: Short - term range - bound, mid - line short - selling after demand peaks, pay attention to positive spread arbitrage [80][81] - Nickel: Q4 nickel ore price expected to rise, recommend long - position on dips or option strategies [84] - Carbon emissions: Short - term volatile [87] - Crude oil: Volatile [89] - Bottle chips: Short - term supply - demand conflict not prominent, marginal weakening expected [91] - Container freight rates: Volatile, consider long - position on dips [93] 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple financial and commodity markets. In the financial market, factors such as gold tax policy, Fed officials' attitudes towards interest rates, and economic data impact market trends. In the commodity market, supply and demand, policy, and seasonal factors affect prices. Overall, most markets are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors need to pay attention to various influencing factors and risks [12][16][30]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - New gold tax policy: VAT on standard gold for investment is refunded immediately, and related taxes are exempted. Physical gold demand may be suppressed, and short - term price is bearish [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign exchange futures (US dollar index)) - Fed officials oppose December rate cuts due to high inflation, and the US dollar is expected to be volatile [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US stock index futures) - Market expectations for rate cuts are adjusted, and short - term risk appetite declines. The market is volatile at a high level [19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock index futures) - October PMI shows production slowdown, and the stock index is expected to be volatile at a high level. Long - position balanced allocation is recommended [22][23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury bond futures) - October manufacturing PMI declines, and November is a policy window period. The bond market is expected to be slightly bullish, but the upside is limited [25][26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean oil/Rapeseed oil/Palm oil) - Indonesian palm oil reference price rises slightly, and Malaysia's October palm oil exports increase. Palm oil price is under pressure in the short - term but may be supported later. Soybean oil is expected to be volatile [29][30][31]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Power coal) - Indonesian low - calorie power coal price is stable. Coal price is expected to be stable in the short - term and strong in the fourth quarter [32]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron ore) - Third - quarter iron ore sales increase. Demand is affected by environmental protection, and price is expected to be volatile [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Bean粕) - Oil mill operation rate is high, and bean粕 price follows import cost. Pay attention to US soybean purchase and Brazilian output [35][36] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazilian sugar production increases, and Indian sugar industry requests export policy. Zheng sugar is expected to be volatile [40][41] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US cotton inspection progress is slow, and drought area decreases. Cotton price is expected to be volatile [42][44][46] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - rolled coil) - Iron water output declines, and steel price is affected by Sino - US relations. Price is expected to be volatile [47][50][51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Red dates) - Xinjiang red dates are in the drying period, and inventory increases. Price is expected to be volatile, wait - and - see [51][52] 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn starch) - September starch export declines, and October export may increase. 11 - contract CS - C and 01 - contract may strengthen [53][54][55] 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn price is stable with narrow fluctuations. Pay attention to government - stored wheat auction [55][56] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Inventory increases, and the market is in oversupply. Wait - and - see [57][58][59] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Multiple copper projects have new progress. Price is affected by the US dollar and inventory, expected to be volatile [60][63] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME lead is in contango. Low - inventory supports price, pay attention to delivery risk [64][65] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some zinc mines' output changes. Price is affected by market sentiment and inventory, expected to be volatile [66][69][70] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Polysilicon futures rise, and price is in a policy - fundamentals game. Pay attention to policy progress [72][73][74] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial silicon) - Southwest production is expected to decrease. Price is expected to be supported, recommend long - position on dips [75][76] 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium carbonate) - Company negotiates to sell lithium project stake. Price is affected by supply - demand and inventory, expected to be volatile [77][78][81] 3.2.18 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Company's nickel self - supply increases. Price is affected by inventory, season, and demand, expected to be volatile [82][83][84] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Carbon emissions) - EUA price is volatile. Market trading activity decreases, and signal is neutral [85][86][87] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Crude oil) - OPEC decides to increase production in December and pause in Q1 2026. Price is expected to be volatile [87][88][89] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle chips) - Bottle chip factory price is adjusted, and supply - demand is expected to weaken marginally [90][91] 3.2.22 Shipping Index (Container freight rates) - Shipping company adjusts surcharge. Freight rate is expected to be volatile, consider long - position on dips [92][93]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The technical signals of various futures sectors are diverse. In the non - ferrous and precious metals sector, gold shows a bullish signal, while some non - ferrous metals like lithium carbonate and copper show bearish signals. In the black and shipping sector, the trends of black - series products are divided, with rebar having a short - term callback risk. In the energy and chemical sector, the signals are also mixed, with LPG and some chemical products showing bullish signals. In the agricultural products sector, most products show bullish signals, except for palm oil [1][2][3][4]. - For each specific variety, pay attention to price fluctuations near key technical levels and pivot points, and manage positions carefully [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector 1.1 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Precious metals: Gold shows a bullish signal, and silver oscillates. Non - ferrous metals: Polysilicon and cast aluminum alloy show bullish signals, while lithium carbonate, alumina, and copper show bearish signals, and the rest oscillate [11][12]. 1.2 Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The pivot point of copper is 85797 - 87530 yuan/ton, with core support at 83686 - 85377 yuan/ton and main resistance at 87907 - 89683 yuan/ton. The support and resistance intervals of non - ferrous metals such as aluminum and zinc are relatively concentrated, while the fluctuation intervals of tin and nickel are larger. New - energy metals like lithium carbonate and polysilicon have higher price levels [24]. 2. Black and Shipping Sector 2.1 Black and Shipping Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Rebar shows a bullish signal, manganese silicon shows a bearish signal, and European line shipping shows a bearish signal. Other black - series products oscillate [29][30]. 2.2 Black and Shipping Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The pivot point of rebar is 3024 - 3086 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3207 - 3272 yuan/ton. The pivot point of iron ore is 763 - 779 yuan/ton, and that of coke is 1719 - 1754 yuan/ton. The pivot point of European line shipping is 5458 - 5568 yuan/ton, maintaining a high level [37]. 3. Energy and Chemical Sector 3.1 Energy and Chemical Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - In the energy sector, LPG shows a bullish signal, and the rest oscillate. In the chemical sector, PTA, p - xylene, and bottle chips show bullish signals, while PVC, propylene, and rubber - related products show bearish signals, and the rest oscillate [41][42][43]. 3.2 Energy and Chemical Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The pivot point of crude oil is 451 - 461 yuan/barrel. Among chemical products, the pivot point of p - xylene is 6391 - 6520 yuan/ton, significantly higher than others. Aromatic - series products such as pure benzene and styrene are at relatively high levels. The technical positions of polyethylene and polypropylene in the polyolefin sector are relatively close. The technical levels of methanol are highly concentrated, indicating consistent market expectations, while the technical intervals of urea and natural rubber have a large span, indicating high potential volatility [49]. 4. Agricultural Products Sector 4.1 Agricultural Products Sector Technical Indicator Signal Summary - Corn, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, sugar, cotton, and other products show bullish signals, while palm oil shows a bearish signal, and the rest oscillate [52][53]. 4.2 Agricultural Products Sector Weekly Pivot Analysis - The pivot points of soybeans and soybean meal are in the middle range. The pivot point of palm oil is 9111 - 9295 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil is 9697 - 9893 yuan/ton, showing strong performance. The technical position of sugar is concentrated in the 5311 - 5560 yuan/ton range, with a relatively convergent fluctuation interval. The pivot points of cotton and cotton yarn show an upward trend. The technical position of pigs has a large span, indicating significant market divergence [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The penetration rate of the Chinese new energy vehicle market exceeded 30% in 2023 and 50% in 2024. In 2025, high - competitiveness new car products are continuously launched, and the price war is gradually ending [3][117]. - Overseas markets are affected by severe trade protectionism in Europe and the United States, which brings volatility risks to exports. New growth points such as the Belt and Road countries and the Middle East should be focused on [3][117]. - In the competitive landscape, the market share of domestic brands continues to expand. Companies with strong product strength, smooth overseas expansion, and stable supply should be focused on [3][117]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Tracking - The one - week price changes of related sectors and listed companies are presented. For example, among listed companies, BYD's closing price on October 31st was 103.61 yuan with a one - week decline of 0.14%, while SAIC Motor's closing price was 16.75 yuan with a one - week increase of 0.42% [14]. 3.2产业链 Data Tracking 3.2.1 China New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Sales and Exports**: From January to August globally, new energy vehicle sales reached 13.257 million, a year - on - year increase of 30.6%. In China, from October 1 - 26, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 901,000, with a year - on - year growth of 0% and a month - on - month decline of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 9.771 million, a year - on - year increase of 22% [1][106][115]. - **Inventory Changes**: Information on the monthly new inventory of new energy passenger vehicle channels and manufacturers is presented through relevant charts [25]. - **Delivery Volume of Chinese New Energy Vehicle Enterprises**: The monthly delivery volumes of companies such as Leapmotor, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO are presented through charts [28][33]. 3.2.2 Global and Overseas New Energy Vehicle Market Tracking - **Global Market**: From January to August, new energy vehicle sales reached 13.257 million, a year - on - year increase of 30.6% [1][115]. - **European Market**: The cumulative sales in Europe were 2.442 million, with a year - on - year growth rate of 30.8% [1][115]. - **North American Market**: The cumulative sales from January to August were 1.205 million, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.8% (cumulative sales from January to September were 1.399 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%). The sales and penetration rate in the United States reached record highs in August and September, mainly due to the expiration of the federal electric vehicle tax credit ($7,500) on September 30th [1][115]. - **Other Regions**: The cumulative sales in other regions were 665,000, with a year - on - year growth rate of 50.6% [1][115]. 3.2.3 Power Battery Industry Chain - Information on power battery loading volume (by material), export volume (by material), weekly average price of battery cells, and material costs is presented through relevant charts [76][80]. 3.2.4 Other Upstream Raw Materials - The daily prices of rubber, glass, steel, and aluminum are presented through relevant charts [99][100]. 3.3 Hot News Summaries 3.3.1 China: Policy Dynamics - On October 30th, China and the United States reached a consensus. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year. China will suspend relevant export control measures announced on October 9th for one year [103][104]. - On October 31st, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that it will promote green products and vigorously develop green industries such as new energy vehicles [105]. 3.3.2 China: Industry Dynamics - From October 1 - 26, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 901,000, with a year - on - year growth of 0% and a month - on - month decline of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 9.771 million, a year - on - year increase of 22% [1][106][115]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Anhui's automobile production was 2.4044 million, ranking first in China, mainly due to the significant increase in new energy vehicle production [107]. - As of the end of September 2025, the cumulative export of domestic cars from Shanghai Waigang Haitong Wharf exceeded 5.32 million, with an average annual growth rate of 10.6%, and the proportion of new energy vehicles increased from 34% to 59% [108]. 3.3.3 China: Enterprise Dynamics - BYD sold 441,706 vehicles in October, a record high this year. In Q3, its total revenue was 194.985 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.05% [109]. - Leapmotor delivered 70,289 vehicles in October, a year - on - year increase of over 84% [111]. - XPeng delivered 42,013 vehicles in October, a year - on - year increase of 76% [111]. - NIO delivered 40,397 vehicles in October, a year - on - year increase of 92.6% [111]. - Li Auto delivered 31,767 vehicles in October, and the orders for the Li i6 exceeded 70,000 after its launch [111]. 3.3.4 Overseas: Policy Dynamics - The US Senate voted to reject Trump's global tariff policy, but the vote may only be symbolic before the House of Representatives conducts a similar vote [111][112]. - Norway has basically achieved the 100% electrification goal and plans to gradually cancel electric vehicle subsidies within two years [2][113][116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The market style is differentiated, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rising, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 closing down. The electronic and banking sectors contributed to the main decline in SSE 50, the power equipment and non - ferrous metal sectors contributed to the main increase in SSE 300 and CSI 500, and the power equipment and pharmaceutical and biological sectors contributed to the main increase in CSI 1000 [3]. - The basis of stock index futures has strengthened. IH maintains a premium, IF maintains a shallow discount, and IC and IM maintain a deep discount. The short - side hedging demand on stock index futures remains dominant, and it is expected that the deep discount pattern of IC and IM will continue. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to build positions in inter - period positive spreads when the discount converges driven by market sentiment. The roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4]. - For the bond futures market, the IRR of bond futures has declined this week, and the inter - period spread has fluctuated strongly. The positive spread space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The interest rate timing signal predicts a decline in interest rates, and it is recommended to choose high - duration varieties for hedging. The multi - factor timing strategy signal for bond futures is neutral, and the inter - variety arbitrage strategy signals for bond futures are also neutral [56]. - In the commodity market, the rise and fall of various varieties are scattered. Most commodity factors rose slightly last week, but the price - volume trend factors and value factors declined significantly. The overall commodity trend may be highly volatile due to external macro - factors, and medium - and long - term trend - based CTA strategies may face certain risks [70]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market 3.1.1 Market Review - Market style is differentiated, with different sectors contributing to the rise and fall of different indices [3]. - IH, IF, IC trading volume increased month - on - month, while IM trading volume decreased month - on - month, and the basis of each variety strengthened slightly [4]. 3.1.2 Basis Strategy - The basis has strengthened, and different varieties have different basis states. It is recommended to pay attention to inter - period positive spreads and adopt a long - near and short - far roll - over strategy [4]. 3.1.3 Arbitrage Strategy - In the inter - period arbitrage strategy, each strategy had a pullback last week, with the annualized basis rate, positive spread, and momentum factor losing 0.3%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively (6 - times leverage). The annualized basis rate factor turned to a reverse - spread signal [5]. - The net value of the inter - variety arbitrage time - series synthetic strategy lost 0.2% last week. The latest signal recommends a 50% position to go long on IC and short on IF, and the IM/IC combination is in a short position [6]. 3.1.4 Timing Strategy - The daily timing strategy lost money overall last week, with SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 losing 0.5%, 0.8%, gaining 0.7%, and losing 1.4% respectively. The timing model's latest signal is bullish on each index [7]. 3.2 Bond Futures Market 3.2.1 Weekly Strategy Focus - In terms of basis and inter - period spreads, the IRR of bond futures has declined, and the inter - period spread has fluctuated strongly. The positive spread space is limited and is expected to be volatile [56]. - In terms of interest rate timing and hedging signals, the interest rate timing signal predicts a decline in interest rates, and high - duration varieties are recommended for hedging [56]. - The multi - factor timing strategy signal for bond futures is neutral, with some factors being bullish and some being bearish [56]. - The inter - variety arbitrage strategy signals for bond futures are neutral [56]. 3.3 Commodity Market 3.3.1 Factor Performance - The rise and fall of various commodity varieties are scattered. Most factors rose slightly, but price - volume trend factors and value factors declined significantly. The overall commodity trend may be volatile, and medium - and long - term trend - based CTA strategies may face risks [70]. 3.3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies have different performance indicators such as annualized return, Sharpe ratio, Calmar ratio, and maximum drawdown. For example, the CWFT strategy has an annualized return of 9.2%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.58, a Calmar ratio of 1.05, and a maximum drawdown of - 8.81% [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the alumina industry is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina spot price stabilized last week, but the futures price continued a weak trend. The supply - demand situation shows an oversupply, yet the reduction in supply is limited and slow. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the downward rhythm and amplitude gradually being compressed [13][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Supply in Guangxi improved after the rainy season, while production in Shanxi and Henan showed no significant increase. The supply of domestic ore is difficult to improve in the short term. Guinea resources are priced at CIF 71 - 72 dollars/ton, but the procurement intention of downstream alumina enterprises is at CIF 69 - 70 dollars/ton. Newly - arrived ore was 415.6 million tons during the period, including 302.1 million tons from Guinea and 97.2 million tons from Australia. The shipping price from Guinea to China remained high at 23.5 dollars/ton [12] - **Alumina**: The spot price stabilized. The ALD northern comprehensive price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 2810 - 2870 yuan/ton, and the domestic weighted index rose by 1.2 yuan/ton to 2871.2 yuan/ton. The import port price remained unchanged. The market price is approaching the cash - flow cost in Shanxi and Henan. The import profit in the north is about 12 yuan/ton. The full cost of domestic alumina is 2872 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 58 yuan/ton. Most enterprises maintained high production, but some suspended roasting due to heavy pollution warnings. The national alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with 96.75 million tons in operation, a decrease of 900,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 84.4% [3][13] - **Demand**: Both domestic and overseas demand remained unchanged. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 44.253 million tons, and the overseas was 29.551 million tons, both unchanged from last week [13] - **Inventory**: As of October 30, the national alumina inventory was 4.13 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons from last week. The inventory at the receiving end increased, the inventory of alumina enterprises decreased, the port inventory increased significantly, and the inventory in yards/platforms/in - transit/narrowly fluctuated [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 237,167 tons, an increase of 15,910 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - **Tendering Result of a Northwest Electrolytic Aluminum Enterprise**: On October 31, a northwest aluminum plant tendered for 10,000 tons of spot alumina, with the delivered price at about 3010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous tender on October 23 [16] - **Increase in Theoretical Import Profit of Alumina**: As of October 31, the Australian alumina price was about 316 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.5 dollars/ton from last week. The cost of reaching the northern ports in China was about 2828 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton from last week, and the import profit was about 12 yuan/ton [16] - **Roasting Furnace Maintenance of an Alumina Enterprise in Hebei**: Affected by heavy pollution control, a large - scale alumina enterprise in Hebei stopped 2 roasting furnaces on the evening of October 28 and planned to resume gradually on October 31, with a temporary reduction in shipping volume but no impact on medium - term production [16] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost Side**: The report provides data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, port inventory, shipping volume of major importing countries, sea - floating inventory, as well as domestic caustic soda and thermal coal prices and alumina production costs in different provinces [17][20][29][31][33] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It includes domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum and alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance data of alumina [36][38][41][44] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the inventory of alumina in electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, ports, yards/platforms/in - transit, the total social inventory, and the warehouse receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the SHFE [46][49][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core View of the Report - Gold prices continued the downward trend after the Fed's hawkish rate cut. The price of London gold dropped 2.7% to $4,002 per ounce. After a 10% correction from the high, the willingness of funds to buy the dip increased, and the decline rate of gold prices slowed down. Multiple factors such as the Fed's policy, geopolitical situation, and domestic tax policy changes are unfavorable to gold prices in the short - term [1][2][3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) was -0.90 yuan/gram, a week - on - week change of 1.87 yuan or -67.5%. The internal - external futures price difference (domestic - foreign) was -10.55 yuan/gram, a week - on - week change of -3.55 yuan or 50.8%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 0.9% to 87,816 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.82% to 38,168,047 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding volume decreased by 0.74% to 1039.20 tons. The CFTC gold speculative net long position decreased by 1.2% to 158,616 lots. The U.S. Treasury yield increased by 2.2% to 4.11%, and the U.S. 10 - year real interest rate increased by 6.7% to 1.82% [11] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.86% to 99.8, and the U.S. Treasury yield slightly increased to 4.07%. The S&P 500 index rose 0.71%, and the VIX index slightly increased to 17. The U.S. overnight secured financing rate was 4.04%. Oil prices dropped 1.9%, and the U.S. inflation expectation was 2.29%. The real interest rate rebounded to 1.82%, and the gold price dropped 2.7%. The spot commodity index closed up [15][18][21] 2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 0.71%. Developing - country stock markets mostly fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.11%. U.S. and German bonds rose, and the U.S. - German yield spread was 1.46%. The British Treasury yield was 4.43%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.67%. The euro depreciated 0.79%, the pound depreciated 1.2%, the yen depreciated 0.74%, and the Swiss franc depreciated 1.12% [23][27][29] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The data on gold speculative net long positions was suspended due to the government shutdown. The SPDR gold ETF holding volume decreased to 1036 tons. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated, and the discount of Shanghai gold narrowed. Gold prices fell, silver prices rebounded, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 82 [34][37] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - On Monday, the U.S. October ISM Manufacturing PMI was released. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest - rate meeting resolution was announced. On Wednesday, the U.S. October ADP employment and ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI were released. On Thursday, the Bank of England's interest - rate meeting resolution was announced. On Friday, the U.S. November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was released [38] Investment Advice - In the short term, pay attention to the risk of gold price decline. The change in domestic tax policy also increases market volatility. If the demand for domestic physical gold drops significantly, the discount of domestic gold relative to foreign gold will widen [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates as expected in October and announced the end of balance sheet reduction on December 1st. Market expectations for a December rate cut have declined, and internal differences within the Fed have increased, which is expected to lead to increased market volatility [3][12] - The ECB and the BoJ kept their policies unchanged with dovish stances, and the market's expectations for Japanese fiscal expansion and monetary easing have increased, driving up the Japanese stock market [3][12] - During the APEC meeting, the US and China made some adjustments to tariffs and export controls, but no formal agreement has been signed, slightly falling short of market expectations [3][12] - The US government shutdown has led to a lack of economic data, but corporate earnings, financial reports, and future capital expenditure plans support the high - level operation of the US market [3][12] Breakdown by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high, with stock markets rising and falling, and bond yields also showing mixed trends. The US Treasury yield slightly rose to 4.07%. The US dollar index rose 0.86% to 99.8, most non - US currencies depreciated, the offshore RMB slightly rose 0.05%, the euro fell 0.79%, the pound fell 1.2%, the yen fell 0.74%, the Swiss franc fell 1.12%, the Korean won, Australian dollar, Malaysian ringgit, and Thai baht rose, while the New Zealand dollar, peso, rand, and Canadian dollar fell. Gold prices dropped 2.7% to $4002 per ounce, the VIX index rose to 17.4, the spot commodity index rose, and Brent crude oil fell 1.9% to $65.2 per barrel [2][10] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets showed mixed trends, with US and A - shares rising. The S&P 500 rose 0.71%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.11%, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.97%, and the Nikkei 225 index soared 6.31%. The US government shutdown will further drag on the economy, and the Fed's interest - rate cut and end of balance - sheet reduction, along with internal differences, are expected to increase market volatility. The market's expectations for Japanese fiscal and monetary policies have boosted the Japanese stock market. The China - US trade situation has slightly disappointed the market, and the divergence between the stock market and fundamentals in China is expected to gradually correct [11][12] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields showed mixed trends, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield slightly rising to 4.07%. The US government shutdown, the Fed's policy adjustments, and the ECB's stance have affected bond yields. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield fell to 1.797%, and the Sino - US yield spread inverted and rebounded to 228bp [15][16][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.86% to 99.8, and most non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB slightly rose 0.05%, while the euro, pound, yen, and Swiss franc fell, and some Asian and Oceanian currencies showed mixed trends [24][27] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold prices fell 2.7% to $4002 per ounce, continuing the downward trend. The Fed's policy and changes in Chinese gold consumption tax have had a negative impact on gold prices, and it is expected that there is still room for decline. Brent crude oil fell 1.9% to $65.2 per barrel as concerns about the supply side eased, while the industrial products rebounded and the commodity spot index rose [28][30] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in October and stopped balance - sheet reduction. This is an important signal of an inflection point in absolute liquidity, but the Fed's internal differences and the uncertainty of a December rate cut have short - term impacts on the market [31][34][35] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: US October ISM Manufacturing PMI - Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia interest - rate meeting decision - Wednesday: US October ADP employment, ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI - Thursday: Bank of England interest - rate meeting decision - Friday: US November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence [36]

Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] Core Viewpoints - After the previous hedging, the price decline of industrial silicon is unlikely to cause production cuts or shutdowns in the short term, but the price needs to exceed 10,000 yuan/ton to bring significant supply increments during the dry season or the next wet season. Therefore, it is more cost-effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [4]. - In November, polysilicon officially enters the critical point of the game between policy and fundamentals. Currently, policy trading may still outweigh fundamental trading. Those who hold long positions can continue to hold, while those chasing long positions face greater risks. They can consider buying call options to participate in the subsequent policy game [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2601 contract of industrial silicon increased by 180 yuan/ton to 9,100 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygenated 553 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 4,105 yuan/ton to 56,410 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N-type re-feeding material of polysilicon remained unchanged at 53,200 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Industrial Silicon Cost Increase, Polysilicon Focus on Storage Progress - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the main futures contract of industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. Xinjiang opened 1 new furnace, while Yunnan and Sichuan reduced 3 and 6 furnaces respectively. Northern large factories may continue to resume production, while southern silicon factories are expected to significantly reduce production at the end of October. It is estimated that the number of operating furnaces in Yunnan will drop to about 20 and that in Sichuan will drop to only 18 in November. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons month-on-month, while the sample factory inventory increased by 0.04 million tons. Downstream maintains rigid demand purchases. When the market declines, aluminum factories actively place orders, and the basis of low-grade industrial silicon has strengthened. During the rising stage, it is in the state of inventory consumption. After updating the balance sheet, it is estimated that industrial silicon will have difficulty in destocking in November and will destock about 1 million tons in December [2][13]. - **Organic Silicon**: This week, the price of organic silicon decreased slightly. Some devices of several companies were under maintenance or shut down. The overall enterprise start-up rate this week was 68.63%, the weekly output of organic silicon was 45,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.89%, and the inventory was 44,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.56%. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the main futures contract of polysilicon rose significantly. Spot prices are under pressure. Leading manufacturers maintain the price of dense re-feeding material above 53 yuan/kg, and downstream mainly purchase special doping materials at 49 - 50 yuan/kg. Considering the coming dry season, it is estimated that the polysilicon production schedule will drop to 115,000 tons in November. As of October 30, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 261,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,000 tons, and the raw material inventory of downstream crystal pulling factories was 218,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4,000 tons. In November, polysilicon officially enters the critical point of the game between policy and fundamentals. If the platform company is successfully established and the storage details are implemented, the polysilicon price is expected to stabilize or even rise. Otherwise, the spot price may be under pressure [3][15]. - **Silicon Wafer**: This week, the price of silicon wafers decreased. The decline is related to overproduction. It is estimated that silicon wafer enterprises will reduce production from November. Whether the silicon wafer price can stabilize depends on whether the silicon material on the cost side continues to strongly support the price and the production reduction plan in November [16]. - **Battery Cell**: This week, the price of battery cells decreased. Overseas demand declined, and the mainstream transaction price of M10 battery cells continued to drop. The production schedule decline is not obvious. Due to the exemption of basic tariffs in India for Southeast Asian origins, the M10 battery is under pressure. The high price of G12 batteries has not been widely accepted by the component side, and the price is expected to decline. The G12R model continues to have an oversupply situation, and the future price is still not optimistic. Battery factories are under increasing cost pressure due to the sharp rise in silver paste prices and are now near cash losses [17]. - **Component**: This week, the component price remained basically stable. Some centralized procurement projects have a demand for high-power components above 700W, and leading component factories have raised their quotes. It is estimated that the domestic component production schedule will be 44.4GW in November, a month-on-month decrease of 1GW. There are concerns that the component production schedule will drop significantly in December. It is expected that the component price will fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether there are demand-side policies in the future [18]. 3. Investment Advice - **Industrial Silicon**: After the previous hedging, it is more cost-effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [4][19]. - **Polysilicon**: Those who hold long positions can continue to hold, while those chasing long positions face greater risks. They can consider buying call options to participate in the subsequent policy game [4][19]. 4. Hot News Summary - **Hoshine Silicon Industry**: On October 30, it released its Q3 2025 report. The company achieved an operating income of 5.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.51%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 75.6675 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.12%. Although it is still in negative growth year-on-year, the single-quarter profit index has turned positive compared with the loss situation in the first half of the year [20]. - **Daqo New Energy**: In Q3, the company achieved an operating income of 1.7726423 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 73.479 million yuan. Based on the current market dynamics, product prices, and market trends, combined with the progress of the annual routine maintenance plan, the company expects the polysilicon production in Q4 to be 39,500 - 42,500 tons, and the expected annual production in 2025 to be 121,000 - 124,000 tons [20]. - **Longi Green Energy**: On October 30, it released its Q3 2025 report. The company's operating income in the first three quarters of 2025 was 50.914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 3.403 billion yuan [21]. 5. Industry Chain High-Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Relevant charts show the spot prices, weekly production, and inventory data of industrial silicon [23][26][29]. - **Organic Silicon**: Relevant charts show the spot price, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly production data of DMC in organic silicon [33][34]. - **Polysilicon**: Relevant charts show the spot price, weekly gross profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production data of polysilicon [36][39]. - **Silicon Wafer**: Relevant charts show the spot price, profit calculation, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production data of silicon wafers [41][46]. - **Battery Cell**: Relevant charts show the spot price, profit calculation, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production data of battery cells [47][52][53]. - **Component**: Relevant charts show the spot price, profit calculation, finished product inventory, and enterprise monthly production data of components [55][61][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "sideways" rating for lithium carbonate [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices first rose and then fell, with the closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 showing increases. Lithium hydroxide prices stabilized, and the price spread changed accordingly. The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased, but there were market rumors affecting the market sentiment, leading to profit - taking by long positions [1][2][13] - From a fundamental perspective, the demand side is expected to remain strong in November, with a slight increase in production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes and batteries. There is still room for a slight increase in apparent demand in November, and the monthly inventory reduction is expected to exceed 10,000 tons before the resumption of supply - side projects. However, the inventory reduction is expected to slow down from late November [3][15] - In terms of strategy, the short - term market will focus on the resumption rhythm of Jiangxi mica projects, with increased market volatility. It is recommended to use a range - trading approach. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the demand reaches a phased peak. For arbitrage, the reverse arbitrage of LC2511 - LC2601 has been gradually realized and can be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [3][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seasonal Inventory Reduction Accelerates, and Supply - Side Game Intensifies - Lithium salt prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week. The closing prices of LC2511 and LC2601 increased by 0.5% and 1.6% respectively, and the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6.8% and 7.1% respectively. Lithium hydroxide prices stabilized, and the price spread changed [1][13] - The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons to 12.7 million tons this week, accelerating the inventory reduction. However, market rumors on Friday led to profit - taking by long positions [2][14] - The demand side is expected to remain strong in November, with a slight increase in production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes and batteries. There is still room for a slight increase in apparent demand in November, and the monthly inventory reduction is expected to exceed 10,000 tons before the resumption of supply - side projects. The inventory reduction is expected to slow down from late November [3][15] - In terms of strategy, short - term market volatility will increase with the game over the resumption of Jiangxi mica projects. A range - trading approach is recommended. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the demand reaches a phased peak. The reverse arbitrage of LC2511 - LC2601 can be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [3][16] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Pilbara's lithium spodumene production in Q3 2025 increased by 1.7% quarter - on - quarter, the sales price of spodumene SC6 increased by 19% quarter - on - quarter, and the operating cost per ton decreased by 13% [17] - Dazhong Mining's wholly - owned subsidiary obtained the mining license for the Hunan Jijiaoshan lithium mine, with a lithium ore resource of 489.872 million tons, equivalent to about 3.2443 million tons of lithium carbonate [17] - Albemarle's 16,400 dry tons of 5.21% lithium spodumene concentrate was sold at a price of RMB 7,058 per ton [18] - Imerys is in exclusive negotiations to sell a minority stake in its lithium mine project in central France and is confident of completing the transaction by the end of January [18] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Rise - The spot price of lithium concentrate increased, with the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) rising from $881 per ton to $944 per ton, a 7.2% increase [14] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: Position Reduction and Price Decline due to News Disturbance - The main contract of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend with increasing positions last week, but there was a significant position reduction of 22,000 lots on Friday, accompanied by a 3.14% decline, with a weekly increase of 1.6% [2][14] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Ternary and Lithium Cobalt Oxide Remain Strong - The production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathodes increased slightly, and the prices of downstream intermediate products such as ternary materials and lithium cobalt oxide showed an upward or stable trend [15][14] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles Reached 50% in September - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50% in September, indicating strong terminal demand [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Shock" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the central bank announced the resumption of open - market treasury bond trading, and broad - money became the main trading theme in the market. Treasury bond futures rose, and the yield curve first steepened and then flattened. Looking ahead to next week, with limited incremental market information, the bond market is expected to continue trading on broad - money - related logic, and treasury bond futures are likely to fluctuate on the stronger side [12]. - Market negatives for the bond market are relatively limited, and there are reasons to bet on broad - money policies. The impact of negative factors on the bond market is decreasing. The central bank's resumption of open - market treasury bond trading is a definite positive, and it is expected to announce relevant information in November. Additionally, the weaker - than - expected October PMI and the Fed's interest - rate cuts will increase market expectations for broad - money policies such as interest - rate cuts [13]. - The news of bond purchases is beneficial for short - term bonds, but the yield curve may not continue to steepen. Although the central bank's bond purchases are likely to target short - term bonds, the positive impact on short - term bonds this round should be weaker than last year. Long - term bonds have greater potential for price increases [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From October 27 to November 2, treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. By the close on October 31, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.544, 106.065, 108.665, and 116.640 yuan respectively, up 0.021, 0.450, 0.650, and 1.610 yuan from the previous weekend [11]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to continue trading on broad - money - related logic, and treasury bond futures are likely to fluctuate on the stronger side. The negatives for the bond market are decreasing, and the central bank's resumption of open - market treasury bond trading is a positive. The yield curve may not continue to steepen [12][13]. 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, a total of 110 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 412.682 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 319.992 billion yuan. The net financing amount of local government bonds increased slightly, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [21]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. By the close on October 31, the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields were 1.40%, 1.57%, 1.79%, and 2.15% respectively, down 9.23, 5.44, 5.12, and 6.60 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y spreads widened, while the 30Y - 10Y spread narrowed [26]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. By the close on October 31, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.544, 106.065, 108.665, and 116.640 yuan respectively, up 0.021, 0.450, 0.650, and 1.610 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes and open interests of different - maturity treasury bond futures contracts changed to varying degrees [35][38]. 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the treasury bond market strengthened. The IRR of futures rose significantly at times, but the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage did not last long. Looking ahead to next week, the basis is expected to narrow slightly [41]. 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Product Spreads - By the close on October 31, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2512 - 2603 were + 0.046, + 0.075, + 0.260, and + 0.290 yuan respectively, down 0.034, 0.040, 0.070, and unchanged from the previous weekend. The inter - delivery spreads are expected to narrow, but the narrowing space is limited [47][48]. 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank conducted 206.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 90 billion yuan in MLF injections in the open market, with a net injection of 90.08 billion yuan. As of the close on October 31, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week rates were 1.49%, 1.46%, 1.32%, and 1.44% respectively, up 2.74, 4.41, 0.10, and 2.50 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchases decreased [53][55][57]. 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose. As of the close on October 31, the US dollar index rose 0.80% to 99.7308, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.11%, up 9 basis points from the previous week, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds was inverted by 231.6 basis points. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction in December, which was in line with market expectations. Powell's statement led to a downward revision of market expectations for Fed interest - rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to strengthen and US Treasury yields to rise [59][60]. 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices showed mixed trends. As of the close on October 31, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3556.67, 6485.90, and 1590.82 points respectively, down 5.58, up 46.71, and down 15.63 points from the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices all rose. As of the close on October 31, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 17.80, 5.69, and 7.04 yuan per kilogram respectively, up 0.07, 0.32, and 0.02 yuan per kilogram from the previous weekend [63]. 3.7 Investment Suggestions - The bond market risk is low in the near term, and it is expected to fluctuate on the slightly stronger side, but the upside space is limited. When going long, one needs to grasp the rhythm and consider the odds [64].