点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 2656 字，阅读全文约 9 分钟 2025年一季度全国规模以上工业产能利用率为74.1% 2025年一季度，全国规模以上工业产能利用率为74.1%，比上年同期上升0.5个百分点。 按消费类型分，3月份，商品零售额36705亿元，同比增长5.9%；餐饮收入4235亿元，增长5.6%。1— 3月份，商品零售额110644亿元，增长4.6%；餐饮收入14027亿元，增长4.7%。 按零售业态分，1—3月份，限额以上零售业单位中便利店、超市、百货店、专业店、品牌专卖店零售 额同比分别增长9.9%、4.6%、1.2%、6.7%、1.4%。 79.3%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业为77.5%，通用设备制造业为78.1%，专用设备制造业为75.6%， 汽车制造 业为71.9% ，电气机械和器材制造业为71.7%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业为74.7%。 (来源:国家统计局 ) 2025年3月份社会消费品零售总额增长5.9% 3月份，社会消费品零售总额40940亿元，同比增长5.9%。其中， 除汽车以外的消费品零售额36610亿 元，增长6.0%。 1—3月份，社会消费品零售 ...

美联储古尔斯比表示，美联储需要着眼于全年局势的发展，关税政策只是其中一个因素；关税对宏观经 济的影响可能有限。 ...

国家统计局4月16日公布的数据显示，初步核算，2025年一季度国内生产总值318758亿元，按不变价格 计算，同比增长5.4%，环比增长1.2%。具体从生产看，一季度全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.5%，比上年全年加快0.7个百分点。一季度服务业增加值同比增长5.3%，比上年全年加快0.3个百分 点。从需求看，一季度社会消费品零售总额124671亿元，同比增长4.6%，比上年全年加快1.1个百分 点。 谈及物价形势，盛来运强调，要全面准确地看待当前物价低位运行的态势。这两年，无论是CPI还是PPI 都在低位运行，既有国内外宏观经济形势复杂变化的因素，也有中国经济处于转型发展阶段、新旧动能 转换带来的影响。相关产业的调整会对相关产品价格带来一系列影响，要全面客观看待近期价格的低位 运行，中国价格的波动运行具有明显的阶段性和结构性特点。"随着经济回升、总需求回暖，促进价格 合理回升的政策效应将继续显现。"他说。 恒泰期货首席经济学家魏刚在接受期货日报记者采访时表示，一季度国内经济数据呈现多个亮点，一是 GDP表现超预期，经济硬数据与好于季节性的软数据PMI相互印证，反映出国内经济开始温和复苏。二 是从3月看， ...

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate increased to 73.01%, up 0.39% from the previous week[7] - The high furnace operating rate rose to 83.3%, a slight increase of 0.15%[7] - The PTA operating rate decreased to 77.57%, down 2.91% from the previous week[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue reached 46,200,000 CNY, a significant increase of 125.1% compared to the previous week[7] - Daily average retail sales of passenger cars decreased to 67,404.15 units, down 3.0% from the previous week[7] - Daily average wholesale sales of passenger cars fell to 81,192.05 units, a decline of 3.1%[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities dropped to 146.05 million square meters, down 12.65% from the previous week[7] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities decreased to 4.24%, down 8.34% from the previous week[7] - Excavator sales increased to 19,517 units, a rise of 67.7% compared to the previous month[7] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose to 1,394.68, an increase of 0.14%[8] - The average wholesale price of pork was 20.79 CNY/kg, down 0.19% from the previous week[8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for agricultural products showed a decline, indicating weak price performance[8] Transportation - The Beijing subway passenger volume decreased to 878.62 million trips, down 12.5% from the previous week[8] - The number of domestic flights increased to 12,526.57, up 0.45% from the previous week[8] - The China Road Logistics Price Index remained stable at 1,048.96, a slight increase of 0.36%[8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and steadily increasing demand, and the electrolytic aluminum market may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. For both, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 19,595 yuan/ton, and the main contract of alumina futures decreased by 44 yuan/ton to 2,786 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum注销仓单 decreased by 2,175 tons to 190,700 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,075 tons to 440,150 tons [2] - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 19,680 yuan/ton, and the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous remained unchanged at 2,840 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton [2] - **Upstream Situation**: Alumina production decreased by 4.92 tons to 750.75 tons, and the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 64.53 tons to 647.02 tons. The export of alumina increased by 1.00 tons to 21.00 tons, and the import increased by 0.58 tons to 4.17 tons [2] - **Industry Situation**: The import of primary aluminum increased by 38,792.39 tons to 200,200.39 tons, and the export decreased by 4,973.02 tons to 3,426.54 tons. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity remained unchanged at 4,517.20 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate increased by 0.13% to 97.50% [2] - **Downstream and Application**: The output of aluminum products increased by 17.91 tons to 610.66 tons, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased by 13.60 tons to 50.60 tons. The output of automobiles increased by 5.10 million to 349.86 million, and the National Housing Prosperity Index increased by 0.45 to 93.80 [2] - **Option Situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.01% to 18.30%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.02% to 14.02%. The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV decreased by 0.0193% to 12.86%, and the option call - put ratio increased by 0.0069 to 0.85 [2] 2. Industry News - China's foreign trade had a stable start in the first quarter of 2025, with the total value of goods trade imports and exports reaching 10.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Hainan plans to allocate over 10 billion yuan from 2025 - 2027 to boost consumption. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation has substantially ended [2] - OPEC lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.1% to 3%, and for 2026 from 3.2% to 3.1%. Goldman Sachs expects a surplus of 580,000 tons in the global aluminum market in 2025 [2] 3. Alumina Viewpoint - The main alumina contract oscillates weakly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The raw material supply pressure is gradually released, the supply may slightly converge, and the demand is steadily increasing. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [3] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - The main Shanghai Aluminum contract oscillates weakly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply and demand are both increasing, but there are risks in export trade. The option market sentiment is bearish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [4]

美国关税政策在全球范围内掀起一波又一波风暴，使宏观经济格局巨变，各类资产亟需破局之道。 未来两周，彭博中国市场快评系列活动将迎来 关税专题网络研讨会 （共两期），彭博首席经济学 家及业内专家将围绕关税相关热点议题，向大家分享最新研究成果与洞见，助您在复杂多变的宏观 环境中保持高瞻视角，破局远航！ 活动时间 第一期： 2025年4月17日（星期四）| 16:30 - 17:15 第二期： 关税系列主题 宏观经济迎来风暴，各类资产如何破局？ 2025年4月24日（星期四）| 16:30 - 17:15 * 注册即同时报名两期活动，第二期话题将在活动前一周公布。 主讲嘉宾 曲天石 彭博亚太区高级经济学家 扫码立即报名 * 报名需要时间审核，敬请耐心等待。审核通过将在微信收到报名成功提醒，活动开始前将会收到具体参会提醒，请注意查收！ * 彭博Bloomberg保留活动的最终解释权。 Jennifer Welch 彭博首席地缘经济分析师 舒畅 彭博亚太区首席经济学家 ...

Macro Economic Indicators - In Q1 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 10.3 trillion yuan, a historical high for the same period, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%[1] - Exports amounted to 6.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.9%, while imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, showing a decline of 6%[1] - Monthly trade growth showed a recovery trend, with March exports growing by 6% after a decline of 2.2% in January and stability in February[1] U.S. Policy and Market Reactions - The U.S. government initiated a national security investigation into semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, potentially leading to tariffs[1] - The U.S. President is expected to announce semiconductor tariff rates this week, while the Treasury Secretary indicated no evidence of asset sell-off in the bond market[1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested that if tariffs are below 10%, the Fed may be more patient with interest rate cuts, potentially occurring in the second half of the year[2] Commodity and Financial Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed results, with energy and chemical products mostly declining, while crude oil rose by 1%[2] - NYMEX crude oil closed at $77.13, down 14.17% year-to-date, while COMEX gold increased by 22.18% year-to-date, closing at $3226.80[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3262.81, down 2.65% year-to-date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.78% on the day[3]

Core Insights - The policies aimed at boosting consumer demand are showing positive effects, with March's consumption market reflecting a favorable trend due to both policy and seasonal factors [2][6][12] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a smaller decline than the seasonal average, indicating a recovery in consumer demand and market stability [3][7][12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to decline, but some industries are witnessing positive price changes due to improved supply-demand structures [4][9][12] Consumer Market - In March, the CPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing significantly compared to previous years [6][12] - Core CPI showed a notable recovery, increasing by 0.5% year-on-year, driven by rising service prices and industrial consumer goods prices [2][6][12] - The price of household appliances and gold jewelry has risen significantly, exceeding the average increase over the past decade [2][6] Industrial Production - The PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, influenced by international input factors and seasonal declines in energy demand [4][12] - High-tech industries are experiencing rapid development, leading to improved supply-demand structures and positive price changes in certain sectors [4][9] External Factors - The U.S. has implemented a 10% baseline tariff on global imports and specific tariffs on 60 countries, including 34% on China, which may impact international trade dynamics [4][13][25] - Countries are responding differently to the U.S. tariff policies, with China retaliating and the EU preparing for negotiations [4][13] Policy Outlook - The government is expected to continue implementing policies to stimulate consumer demand and support economic recovery, including fiscal measures and monetary policy adjustments [22][23][24] - The focus will be on enhancing domestic demand, promoting equipment upgrades, and improving the overall economic environment [24][25]

――宏观经济周报 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2025 年 4 月 11 日 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宏观经济分析报告 5 波动加剧更看政策耐心 宋亦威 [Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_I 芃 ndInvest] SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 风险提示：1.地缘政治风险：全球经贸局势不确定性抬升，或对市场风险 偏好形成扰动。2.经济和政策变化超预期：近来海外经济波动加剧，国内 经济正处于转型阶段，基本面超预期变动易引起相关政策调整。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 证 券 研 究 报 宏 观 研 究 告 宏 观 周 报 就外围环境而言， ...

01 市场洞察 宏观经济总体平稳，股债震荡分化 3月，国内宏观经济延续企稳态势，反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得50.5，在2月份50.2的基础上回升0.3，连续两个月位于扩张区 间。制造业的景气水平回升主要是受到生产指数、新订单指数和原料库存指数环比上行所带来的影响。2月份CPI同比下降0.7%，PPI同比 下降2.2%。相比于1月份CPI和PPI同比分别上涨0.5%和下降2.3%而言，CPI在2月份同比下降主要是受到食品价格和服务价格下降的影 响；生产资料价格和生活资料价格的降幅缩小，使得PPI同比降幅收窄。 2025.03 晨 星 月 报 月初，政府工作报告中首次将"稳住楼市股市"写入2025年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向中，体现了国家对股市的高度重视，有助于 稳定市场预期、提振投资者信心。不仅如此，两会提出的深化资本市场改革和大力推动中长期资金入市等一系列利好股市的举措，叠加对 消费和科技发展的大力支持，推动权益市场整体表现强势。中旬以来，科技成长板块止盈情绪显现，加之特朗普关税政策落地的临近使得 市场风险偏好受到压制，带动股市进入调整。从投资侧来看，主要股指在3月涨跌互现，其中上证指数和深证 ...