1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB April palm oil supply - demand report is bearish as the significant increase in production led to higher - than - expected ending stocks [21]. - The USDA May supply - demand report is bullish for soybeans as the 24/25 and 25/26 annual US soybean ending stocks are lower than expected [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight, the closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 07 (BMD) was 3846.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.61% and an overnight decline of 0.41% [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of currency indices including the US dollar index, RMB, Malaysian ringgit, etc. are also given. For instance, the US dollar index was 100.79, with a decline of 0.25% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil 2505, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2505 in East China was 8510, with a basis of 460 and no change in basis compared to the previous day [2]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for soybean crushing in different regions like the US Gulf, US West, Brazil, and Argentina are listed. For example, the CNF premium in Brazil was 133 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote was 444 dollars per ton [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (May 20 - 24) for major US soybean - producing states shows higher - than - median precipitation and generally lower temperatures. The weekend in the US Midwest will be dry, and more rainfall may occur next week. Different weather conditions are detailed for the western and eastern regions [3][5]. - Three institutions (AmSpec, ITS, SGS) reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 increased compared to the same period last month, with growth rates of 14.21%, 6.63%, and 19.22% respectively [6][7]. - RHB analysts believe that Indonesia's recent increase in the export special tax on crude palm oil (CPO) may support global CPO prices and strengthen its biodiesel policy [7]. - As of the week ending May 13, about 17% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 15% the previous week and 9% last year [7]. - As of the week ending May 8, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales met expectations, with specific changes in export sales, shipments, and new sales for different market years [8][9][10]. - The NOPA reported that US soybean oil inventory in April 2025 was 1.527 billion pounds, and soybean crushing volume was 190.226 million bushels [10]. - The US EPA has submitted a proposed rule to the White House to review the amount of biofuels that refineries must blend into their fuels starting in 2026 [10]. - CONAB predicted that the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production would reach 168.3418 million tons, with an increase of 14% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month [11]. - Anec predicted that from May 11 - 17, Brazilian soybean exports would be 3.9898 million tons, and soybean meal exports would be 627,400 tons [12]. - Ukrainian producers expect soybean prices to rise at the end of May, and they may reduce the sowing area by 12% this year [12]. - The predicted Australian 2025/26 rapeseed production is 6.2 million tons, and future precipitation conditions need to be closely monitored [13]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose to a more - than - one - week high due to the increase in capesize vessel freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 15, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 70% compared to the previous trading day [15]. - On May 15, the trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills decreased, and the overall oil mill operating rate increased by 1.13% [15]. - In April 2025, the national industrial feed production increased by 4.2% month - on - month and 9.0% year - on - year, with changes in different types of feed and raw material usage ratios [15]. - On May 15, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased, and the price of eggs increased by 1.5% [16]. International Macroeconomic Data - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.7%, and there are different probabilities for rate cuts in July [17]. - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, industrial output, retail sales, PPI, etc. are presented, with some data meeting expectations and others deviating [17][18]. - The IEA monthly report shows that global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025, and the supply growth forecast is raised [18]. Domestic News - On May 15, the US dollar/yuan exchange rate was raised, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [20]. 05 Key Information Analysis - The MPOB April palm oil report shows that production, exports, imports, and consumption changed, and the ending stocks increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, higher than expected [21]. - The USDA May soybean report adjusted the 24/25 and 25/26 annual US soybean exports, production, and ending stocks, with the ending stocks lower than expected [22]. 06 Fund Flows - On May 15, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 28.657 billion yuan, including 4.803 billion yuan from commodity futures and 23.853 billion yuan from stock index futures. Different sectors of commodity futures also had varying capital flows [24][25]. 07 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

肖耿认为，理解关税战不能只看贸易顺差/逆差，这些贸易不平衡是中美两国不同发展模式呈现的结果。 他解释称，美国实行的是强美元、强宏观经济刺激政策、高资本市场回报率的"强势经济金融政策"，其低储蓄及过度消费，特别是军费支出，最终导致长期 贸易赤字（逆差），同时美元作为世界储备货币帮助了美国政府的过度借贷；中国直到2024年9月，实行的是弱人民币、弱宏观经济刺激政策、低资本市场 回报率的"弱势(或过度谨慎)宏观经济金融政策"，实际上维持了中国的高储蓄、低消费，最终反应出来就是长期贸易盈余（顺差）。 肖耿进一步表示，特朗普政府此前的"离谱关税"，本质是希望通过对外收取关税、对内降低税收来应对美国国内的经济结构性矛盾，对美国而言是有其必要 性的。"不是因为中国不好，而是因为中国做得太好了，我们国家的生产能力在不断上升，这是美国不希望看到的，因为他（美国）想要保持最领先（的地 位）。"他说。 经济观察报记者 张锐 中美经贸高层会谈日前在瑞士日内瓦举行，双方在关税政策方面取得实质性进展。 5月15日，香港中文大学（深圳）公共政策学院副院长肖耿接受经济观察报记者采访表示，关税战背后是中美多维度竞争与再平衡，这些竞争与再平衡不 ...

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年05月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：主产区减产集中，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：原料价格继续探涨，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：铁水下行，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：铁水下行，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：煤矿库存增加，震荡偏弱 | 9 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 10 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 16 日 铁矿石：短期利多兑现，上涨驱动放缓 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 736. 5 | -0.5 | -0. 07% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(于) | 持仓变动(手) | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of treasury bond futures is to fluctuate within a range. After the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient, but due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, so is the downward space of treasury bond futures. Overall, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, mainly in a consolidation phase. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, it is mainly in a short - term consolidation phase. [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, and the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited. In the short term, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited, mainly in a consolidation phase. Follow - up attention should be paid to external factors such as tariffs and the Fed, as well as domestic macro - economic indicators. [4]

【逻辑】昨日不锈钢盘面窄幅震荡，现货价格暂稳，佛锡两市采购上仍持谨慎态度，现货成交整体一 般。宏观方面，中美税谈判结果相对乐观整体略超预期，但后续仍有不确定的空间；国内政策推动高质 量发展，对市场心态整体改善。近期矿端价格相对坚挺，铬矿现货源紧缺，叠加铬铁供应过剩得到明显 修复，铬铁价格偏强。菲律6月资源预计下周开始集中出售，1.4%镍矿FOB在40左右；印尼5月二期镍 矿内贸升水维持+26-27不变，内贸基价上涨0.65-1美元，整体价格小幅上涨，雨季影响下镍矿供应仍偏 紧。镍铁价格维持弱稳，镍铁采购仍以压价主，主流成交在940-950元/镍，国内工厂利润亏损。供应端 部分钢厂在5月削减300系产量并增产200和400系以缓解亏损，但整体供应过剩格局未改。需求具有一定 韧性但仍缓慢修复中，制造业订单回暖较慢，采购以刚需补库为主。社会库存周度数据基本持稳，仓单 近期一定减少，库存压力稍缓。总体上，矿端对价格有一定支撑，原料镍铁价格松动，不锈钢产量维持 高位，市场去库压力仍存。短期宏观改善市场情绪修复，但供需矛盾之下基本面也存在一定压力，预计 盘面震荡为主，主力运行区间参考12600-13200。 【操作建议】 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 5 月 16 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250516 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】4 月金融数据点评*张晓娇 朱启兵。4 月新增社融和新增信贷 偏弱，主要是受美国关税政策冲击；但 4 月数据中仍反映出积极的财政政策 落地速度较快、居民购房需求仍在恢复趋势当中；5 月国内宏观政策加大宽 松力度、海外经贸形势出现较大变化，我们预计将提振二季度经济预期。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3380.82 | (0.68) | | 深证成指 | 10186.45 | (1.62) | | 沪深 300 | 3907.20 | (0.91) | | 中小 100 | 6321.96 | (1.34) | | 创业板指 | 2043.25 | (1.92) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美容护理 | 3.68 | 计算机 | (2.97) | | 煤炭 | 0.42 | 通信 | (2.45) ...

新华财经纽约5月15日电（记者刘亚南）由于当日公布的多个美国宏观经济指标引起担忧，15日美元兑 除欧元以外的一揽子货币走低，美元指数在隔夜市场下跌，当日上午弱势震荡，午后窄幅盘整，尾盘时 美元指数下跌。 鲍威尔说，美国可能在进入一个供应冲击更频繁并可能持续更久的阶段，这对经济和央行而言是一个困 难的挑战。 欧盟统计部门在15日早些时候发布的初步数据显示，欧元区一季度GDP环比增速为0.3%，低于市场预 期的0.4%，前一季度数据则从0.2%修订为0.4%。欧盟一季度GDP同比增幅为1.2%，与市场预期和前一 季度数值一致。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1178美元，低于前一交易日的1.1178美元；1英镑兑换1.3299美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3264美元。 1美元兑换145.68日元，低于前一交易日的146.72日元；1美元兑换0.8362瑞士法郎，低于前一交易日的 0.8426瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3966加元，低于前一交易日的1.3976加元；1美元兑换9.7397瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.7572瑞典克朗。 美国劳工部当日早间发布的数据还显示，美国4月份生产者价格指数环比下降0.5%， ...

Capital Southwest (CSWC) Q4 2025 Earnings Call May 15, 2025 11:00 AM ET Speaker0 Thank you for joining today's Capital Southwest Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year twenty twenty five Earnings Call. Participating on the call today are Michael Sarner, Chief Executive Officer Chris Reberger, Chief Financial Officer Josh Weinstein, Chief Investment Officer and Amy Baker, Executive Vice President Accounting. I will now turn the call over to Amy Baker. Speaker1 Thank you. I would like to remind everyone that in the cours ...

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue for 2024 but saw an increase in net profit attributable to shareholders. However, it reported a significant loss in the first quarter of 2025 due to various challenges, including reduced customer demand and intensified market competition [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.27%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 22 million yuan, an increase of 15.17% [1]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 26%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 19.82 million yuan, a drastic decrease of 2097% [1][3]. - The company's total assets at the end of the reporting period were 26.7 billion yuan, with net assets close to 20 billion yuan [2]. Market Dynamics - The company operates in the certification, testing, and calibration services for various electrical equipment, with a focus on high and low voltage electrical testing [2]. - The high voltage testing business generated 4.76 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.73%, while the low voltage testing business saw a growth of 10.61%, reaching 1.35 billion yuan [2]. - Revenue from the East China region grew by 6.45% to 3.94 billion yuan, while the North China region experienced a significant decline of 22.24%, with revenue of 782.5 million yuan [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is shifting its strategy from a passive approach of waiting for customers to come to actively seeking orders, reflecting a response to increased competition in the electrical testing market [3]. - The management is focusing on expanding into emerging testing markets and enhancing new testing capabilities while maintaining its traditional markets [1][3]. International Expansion - The company plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Canada through a new subsidiary in Beijing, with an investment of 10 million USD or equivalent in local currency [4][5]. - The establishment of the Canadian subsidiary is seen as a strategic move to expand overseas markets and enhance the company's long-term development strategy [5].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 5 月 15 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/5/15 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 沥青 | 白糖 | 氧化铝 | | | | | 三十债 | 棉花 | PTA | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 十债 | 玻璃 | 铝 | | | | | 鸡蛋 | 棉纱 | 燃油 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 硅铁 | 纯碱 | 对二甲苯 | | | | | 锰硅 | 热轧卷板 | 燃油 | | | 客服电话： | | | 中证500股指期货 | 短纤 | | | | | | 铁矿石 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 400-618-6767 | | | 五债 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | 公司网址： | | | 尿素 | 橡胶 | | ...