房地产市场在 4 月份表现如何？ 4 月份房地产市场表现逊于预期，基本面较为疲软。房地产市场需求指数从去 年（2024 年）4 月到今年（2025 年）首次出现回落。房地产投资增速也在下 降，二手房市场销售总额和房价均有所下修，各城市的新房和二手房价格走弱。 在销售走弱背景下，市场警戒度自去年（2024 年）以来首次回落。预计下一 步更多的增量政策将聚焦房地产领域，以应对内部政策预期和外部关税冲击压 力。 银河总量之声 经济的韧性 20250519 摘要 • 4 月房地产市场表现疲软，需求指数首次回落，投资增速下降，新房和二 手房价格走弱，市场警戒度降低。预计更多增量政策将聚焦房地产领域， 以应对内外部压力。 • 4 月消费整体表现良好，同比增长 5.1%，得益于以旧换新政策的拉动，尤 其是家电类消费增速显著。全年消费预计保持平稳增长，但能否进一步提 升需关注政策支持。 • 投资整体同比增速为 4%，低于经济增速。制造业投资虽放缓但仍处高位， 基建投资累计增速持平。预计后续地方政府专项债提升空间大，基建投资 将保持稳定并小幅上升。 • 面对外部关税冲击，逆周期调控将聚焦房地产，落实存量政策。地方政府 专项债提 ...

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 地产探底对内需拖累加深 ——经济数据点评（25.4） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 社零增速高位回落，补贴效果分化，汽车石油下滑。4 月社会消费品 零售总额、限额以上商品零售同比分别为 5.1%、6.6%，分别较前月的阶段 性高点回落 0.8、2.0 个百分点。主要拖累来自汽车，同比增速下滑 4.8 个 百分点至 0.7%，与金融数据中居民贷款再度降温相一致，显示房地产周期 未出现明确拐点之前，居民汽车消费回升态势尚不稳固。而同样受补贴刺 激的家电音像、通讯器材，4 月零售同比分别达到 38.8%和 19.9%，均处于 一年多以来较高增长区间，补贴效果持续显现。必需品、服务持续呈现较 强韧性和较小弹性，粮油食品同比 14.0%较前月再度小幅上行 0.2 个百分 点，餐饮收入同比 5.2%，尽管较前月小幅回落 0.4 个百分点但仍处于近一 年较高增速区间。 固定投资增速下滑，房地产探底有所加快，制造业基建高位波动。4 月固定资产投资同比 3.5%，较前月回落达 0.8 个百分点，三大主要行业同 步走弱，增长中枢进一步分化。单月房地产开发投资同比-11.3%，跌幅再 度加深 1.3 个百分 ...

作 者丨周潇枭 编 辑丨张星 5月1 9日，国家统计局发布4月经济数据。 数 据 显 示 ， 4 月 全 国 规 模 以 上 工 业 增 加 值 同 比 增 长 6 . 1% ， 4 月 全 国 服 务 业 生 产 指 数 同 比 增 长 6 . 0%——考虑到一季度我国经济同比增长5 . 4%，4月生产端主要指标增速在6%及以上，反映 出4月我国经济依然实现较好增长。 分 析 背 后 原 因 ， 尽 管 4 月 以 美 元 计 价 对 美 国 出 口 同 比 下 降 2 1% ， 但 是 通 过 加 大 出 口 多 元 化 发 展，4月我国以美元计价出口额同比增长8 . 1%， 出口表现继续好于市场预期 。另外， 我国扩 内需政策在持续发力 ，包括消费品以旧换新政策、加快地方专项债发行使用等，较好地支撑 了相关需求的稳定增长。 5月1 9日，国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖出席国新办新闻发布会表 示，4月份，外部冲击影响加大，但我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，宏观政策协 同发力，国民经济应变克难稳定运行。但也要看到，国际环境变数仍多，国内经济回升向好 的 基 础 还 需 巩 固 。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents an index map that includes various commonly used stock indices, their codes, selection rules, industry distribution, average and median market capitalization of constituent stocks, and the number of constituent stocks, which will be regularly updated for easy reference [1][4]. Group 1: Index Overview - The index map includes several categories of stock indices such as broad-based indices, strategy indices, industry indices, thematic indices, and overseas indices [4]. - Key broad-based indices in the A-share market include the CSI series indices like CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 800, and CSI All Share, which are selected based on the market capitalization of listed companies and cover stocks from various industries [8]. Group 2: Index Details - The CSI 300 index consists of the 300 largest and most liquid A-shares listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, with an average market capitalization of 177,899 million and a median of 851.80 million [3]. - The CSI 500 index includes 500 stocks ranked from 301 to 800 in terms of market capitalization, with an average market capitalization of 263.02 million and a median of 241.01 million [3]. - The CSI 800 index covers 800 stocks, while the CSI 1000 index includes 1000 stocks, with respective average market capitalizations of 831.51 million and 121.62 million [3]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index is composed of the 50 most representative stocks from the Shanghai market, reflecting the performance of leading companies, with an average market capitalization of 5,084.82 million [3]. - The Shenzhen Component Index selects 500 large and liquid companies from the Shenzhen market, with an average market capitalization of 430.20 million [3]. Group 3: Industry and Thematic Indices - The article lists various thematic indices such as the Consumption Index, which selects major consumer industry stocks from the CSI 800 index, with an average market capitalization of 1,255.44 million [6]. - The Healthcare Index includes 100 large-cap stocks in the healthcare sector, with an average market capitalization of 399.02 million [6]. - The Technology Index reflects the performance of 50 leading technology companies, with an average market capitalization of 439.71 million [6].

Economic Growth - In April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 6.0%, indicating strong economic growth despite external pressures [1][2] - The overall economic performance in April reflects a stable growth trajectory, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and diversifying exports [1][3] Export Performance - Despite a 21% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. in April, China's total exports in dollar terms grew by 8.1%, exceeding market expectations [1][3] - The increase in exports is attributed to a "grab export" phenomenon to markets outside the U.S., resilient external demand, and the timing of U.S. tariff implementations [3][6] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The consumption upgrade policy, particularly the "old-for-new" program, has significantly boosted retail sales in categories such as home appliances and furniture, with growth rates of 38.8% and 26.9% respectively [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year in April, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand [2][4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment maintained a growth rate of 4% in the first four months, supported by infrastructure investment, while manufacturing investment grew by 8.8% [4] - Real estate investment saw a decline of 10.3%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector, despite overall stability in the real estate market [8][9] Policy Measures - The government is expected to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, aiming for sustained economic growth [1][7] - There is a call for expanding consumption policies to include service consumption and products transitioning from export to domestic sales [7][8]

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 4月六大口径数据（工业、服务业、出口、社零、投资、地产销售）同比均不同程度低于前值，当时 外部关税骤然上升的背景下，经济较3月有所放缓。但同时各指标仍呈现较明显韧性，按工业与服务业、工业 与社零模拟的实际GDP同比分别为5.45%、5.44%，低于3月，和一季度仍大致相当。 第二， 工业增加值同比6.1%。关于工业表现，有几个细节：（1）出口交货值4月同比0.9%，较前值的 7.7%明显下行，关税还是带来了工业端的明显扰动。出口交货值弱于出口，证明企业当期审慎生产，倾向于 消化库存；（2）私营企业工业增加值同比6.7%，相对最高；国有企业、外资企业增速较低，我们理解与本 轮政策红利比如信贷等对民企的倾斜有关，与今年需求端消费、出口相对于投资更活跃亦有一定关系；（3） 产销率同比-0.2%，较前值的-0.1%仅小幅下行，和2018年5-6月同比显著转负对照，企业已有更多经验安 排生产、应对外需变化。 第三， 在去年底报告《引导供需比优化：2025年中观环境展望》中，我们参考投入产出表尝试了一种粗略的 估算方法，即以40%*固定资产投资同 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 4 月外部经贸环境急剧变化，宏观经济保持较强韧性 ——2025 年 4 月宏观数据点评 首席宏观分析师 王青 研究发展部执行总监 冯琳 事件：据国家统计局 2025 年 5 月 19 日公布的数据，4 月规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 6.1%， 前值为 7.7%，1-4 月累计同比为 6.4%，2024 年全年累计同比为 5.8%；4 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 5.1%，前值为 5.9%，1-4 月累计同比为 4.7%，2024 年全年累计同比为 3.5%；1-4 月全国固定资产投资累 计同比增长 4.0%，前值为 4.2%，2024 年全年累计同比增长 3.2%。 基本观点： 总体上看，在 4 月关税战骤然升级背景下，国内宏观经济保持较强韧性，背后主要是今年逆周期调 节政策发力，实施一个上调、两个增加，即上调财政赤字率，增加超长期特别国债发行及增加专项债发 行和使用，包括"两新"、"两重"等在内的稳增长政策效应在促消费、扩投资方面持续体现。其中，4 月工业增加值增速放缓，主要原因是当月外部经贸环境骤然收紧，工业企业出口交货值同比增速较上月 大幅回落，但内需发力仍带动当月工业生产增速处 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise to 24,300 points due to the easing of trade tensions between China and the US, with tariffs on Chinese imports reduced from 145% to 30% and on US imports from 125% to 10% for a period of 90 days [2] - The Chinese government is set to introduce a series of financial policies in May to stabilize the market and bolster investor confidence, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [2] Macro Focus - Hong Kong's GDP grew by 3.1% in Q1 2025, maintaining the annual forecast [4][9] - The US consumer confidence index hit a historical low, with inflation expectations rising significantly [4][9] - Japan's economy contracted by 0.2% in Q1, missing expectations [4][9] Corporate News - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) priced its H-shares at 263 HKD, with plans to raise funds through a private equity investment in carbon neutrality [10] - Haitian Flavor Industry Co., Ltd. is reportedly preparing for an IPO to raise approximately 1 billion USD [10] - The biotechnology company, Paige Biopharma, is seeking to raise 300 million HKD through its IPO [10] - The advertising firm, Jihong, plans to raise up to 730 million HKD in its IPO [10] Industry Insights - The shipping and export sectors are expected to benefit from the reduction in tariffs, leading to increased shipments [7] - The financial sector is adapting to new public fund regulations, which will guide asset allocation closer to the CSI 300 index [7] - The domestic demand sector is anticipated to improve as trade tensions ease, potentially boosting economic growth in mainland China [7] Investment Climate - The Hong Kong IPO market has raised over 60 billion HKD this year, making it the largest globally [9] - The real estate market in mainland China is showing signs of stabilization, which could benefit large banks [8] - The consumer market is experiencing shifts, with a notable increase in the acceptance of new energy vehicles, reaching a penetration rate of 8.7% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities and challenges in the financing and debt repayment mechanisms of cross-regional infrastructure projects in China, particularly focusing on the use of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) models and special bonds. Group 1: Project Funding and Debt Responsibility Complexity - Cross-regional infrastructure projects, especially in railways and highways, have complex funding structures involving local government fiscal funds, bank loans, and social capital. The debt and funding responsibilities are not always directly correlated [2]. - Local governments often incur debt corresponding to their funding responsibilities in projects, leading to fragmented debt representation across multiple sub-projects, particularly in PPP projects [2]. Group 2: Special Bonds and Debt Repayment Sources - Recent changes allow PPP projects to utilize special bond funds, which are linked to government funding responsibilities rather than direct project revenues. This indicates that government borrowing is influenced more by social benefits than by project profitability [3]. - In projects like toll roads and railways, the repayment of special bonds may not rely on operational income, leading to a significant asymmetry between project profitability and debt repayment sources [4]. Group 3: Measures and Practical Operations - Local governments and project companies are implementing measures to ensure the repayment of special bonds, such as requiring project companies to agree that revenues can be used for debt repayment [7]. - In cases where operational income is insufficient, local governments may resort to land transfer revenues as a repayment source, particularly in regions with active real estate development [7]. - Additional projects and revenue sources, such as advertising and parking fees along railway lines, are being considered to supplement income for special bond repayment [7]. Group 4: Conclusion - The financing and debt repayment mechanisms for cross-regional infrastructure projects face multiple challenges, particularly in the design of debt responsibilities and repayment sources in PPP projects. Factors like project profitability, shareholder dividend decisions, and local government fiscal burdens significantly impact the repayment of special bonds [6]. - With ongoing policy improvements and the application of special bonds in PPP projects, the future financing models for infrastructure are expected to become more diversified and flexible, supporting sustainable economic development in China [6].

Economic Indicators - As of May 18, 2025, the weekly ECI supply index is 50.24%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is 49.91%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for the first three weeks of May is 50.25%, down 0.10 percentage points from April, and the demand index is 49.93%, up 0.01 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is 49.95%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is 49.74%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] Central Bank and Monetary Policy - As of April 30, 2025, the central bank's total balance sheet is 45.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 108.48 billion yuan from March 2025[13] - The central bank's holdings of government bonds decreased by 1823.5 billion yuan in April, bringing the total to 25.18 trillion yuan[14] - In April, the central bank increased support for the capital market by 3700 billion yuan, indicating a proactive stance to stabilize the market[14] Market Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars from May 1 to May 11 increased by 34% compared to the same period last month[7] - The container shipping price index for exports to the U.S. has shown significant improvement, with rates for the West and East coasts rising by 23.2% and 21.5% respectively as of May 16[7] - The construction sector is expected to accelerate in Q2 2025, with the asphalt working rate showing a notable recovery compared to last year[7] Risks and Outlook - There is a potential for a "rush to export" phenomenon in the short term, which could impact market stability[46] - The effectiveness of policy measures may fall short of market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market remains to be observed[46]